tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-55431470690314153762024-03-14T10:35:45.237-05:00Diamond FuturesThe Place to Find Baseball's Next Generation of Hidden GemsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger246125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-47325242584517981242011-03-05T20:26:00.004-06:002011-03-05T20:42:35.255-06:00TEAM #12 – Boston Red Sox<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk4ZJNggcQZjPmOUsRtXxSoJUXmxKNzigwsgtuW-wYphs44HePW-fr3U2hzdweppE-ZoOYU3sBSaRDLxFAKojOA29UM8acuAP3fVZ8ru-LUspUue3sH2V_XS4ZaaqkXpZYxPp707YGRAON/s1600/Anthony+Ranaudo.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 225px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 225px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5580787781913463122" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk4ZJNggcQZjPmOUsRtXxSoJUXmxKNzigwsgtuW-wYphs44HePW-fr3U2hzdweppE-ZoOYU3sBSaRDLxFAKojOA29UM8acuAP3fVZ8ru-LUspUue3sH2V_XS4ZaaqkXpZYxPp707YGRAON/s400/Anthony+Ranaudo.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:85%;">Ranaudo could end up as the best collegiate pitcher from the 2010 draft</span></div><br /><br /><br />We have always been admirers of the way Theo Epstein runs the Red Sox. They draft well, aren’t afraid to pay above slot bonuses, excel at scouting the international market, sign quality key free agents and aren’t afraid to trade prospects for quality Major League additions. But none of that was able to rescue the Red Sox in 2010 from a rash of injuries that saw Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis—three of their top four hitters from opening day--combine to miss nearly 300 games. Determined to not be left out of the playoffs again, the Red Sox pulled off some of the winter’s biggest coups dealing for Adrian Gonzalez and signing free agent Carl Crawford—which should provide the Red Sox the opportunity to challenge the Yankees for baseball’s most potent offense.<br /><br />While the Gonzalez deal certainly weakend the Minor League system that was rated #3 last year (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/02/team-3-boston-red-sox.html">TEAM #3 – Boston Red Sox</a>)—especially at the top—the Red Sox still have one of the deepest groups of Top 30 prospects in the game. This was aided in large part by a June draft that was among the best in all of baseball. Not only is it deep, it is incredibly balanced. Starting pitchers, relief pitchers, left-handers, right-handers, infielders, outfielders, near ready, not-so-near ready—you name it—it has them all. The only thing it doesn’t seem to possess, is a lot of low-ceiling/high-floor types, as that doesn’t seem to be part of the Red Sox philosophy. If there is an over-abundance of anything, it is middle infield prospects—especially shortstops—as no team in baseball can match the Red Sox depth at the shortstop position. The other thing the system seems to be short on is the catching position, as the Red Sox are banking on Saltamacchia becoming a main stay, because you have to go all the way down to #26 to find the first true catching prospect on this list. While 2010 was certainly a disaster if you are a Red Sox fan, it will be hard to shed many tears of sympathy, as the Red Sox appear to not only be one of the best teams in baseball at the Major League level, but they also have a minor league system that is positioned to remain strong for quite some time.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – We tend to be partial to players that have the defensive skills to guarantee them an opportunity to prove their worth from an offensive stand point at the Major League level. That was the key factor behind our ranking of Jose Iglesias at #6 last year. Iglesias is #2 on the list this season, and #1 on many others. Few shortstops in the game—at any level—can match him in the field, and we expect his offense to be at least league average.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – We could easily call this for Westmoreland at #1, but, given the circumstance, that would be unfair to both him and us as his battles became more important than those about baseball. While we aren’t unhappy with much of what we said about the Red Sox last year, picking Lars Anderson at #4 now appears to be the biggest miss.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A<br /></span></strong><br />1) <strong>Anthony Ranaudo, RHP</strong> –<br /><br />Ranaudo entered his junior season at LSU as the unquestioned top college pitching prospect available, but a nagging elbow injury caused him to pitch nothing remotely similar to his 2009 form. As the season wore on, he showed some signs of returning to his former self—enough so that the Red Sox selected him in the sandwich round. Determined to regain some of the luster that disappeared this spring, Ranuado went to the Cape this summer where he was lights out—allowing no earned runs in thirty innings of work. That was enough for Boston to believe he was worth the 8th highest bonus doled out to 2010 draftees—only $100,000 less than the Indians gave Drew Pomeranz. We became huge believers in Ranuado after 2009. When healthy, Ranuado shows a mid-90s fastball, a plus curve and an at least average change. At 6’7”, 230lbs, he is able to throw with a significant downward plane. Although he struggled with command this past season at LSU, his command has historically been a strength. If it all comes together, Ranaudo is a potential Major League ace. The Red Sox are likely to be cautious with his elbow this season, as he make his debut in the Carolina League (CAR). If his health concerns are a thing of the past, he should become a mainstay of the Red Sox rotation by mid-2012.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A-<br /></span></strong><br />2) <strong>Jose Iglesias, SS</strong> (2010 Performance Scores– Power 30; Discipline 51; First Base Rate 67; Speed 49)<br /><br />If Iglesias never becomes more than an average offensive player at the Major League level, he still is likely an all-star caliber shortstop, due mainly to his gold-glove caliber defense. With soft hands, smooth footwork and a powerful arm, Iglesias has the ability to make outstanding defensive plays look effortless and routine. Offensively, at only 21yo, there is every reason to believe that Iglesias will develop into an above average contact hitter. We would like to see my patience at the plate, he possesses only average speed for the shortstop position, and he will never have more than below average power. Still, he could become a formidable threat near the top of the order. 2011 should find Iglesias in the International League. Defensively he is Major League ready, so his ascension to Boston is merely a decision as to when the Red Sox are willing to live with his offense. Certainly by 2012 we expect Iglesias to be the Red Sox everyday shortstop.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong><br />3) <strong>Oscar Tejeda, 2B</strong> (2010– Power 53; Discipline 63; First Base Rate 53; Speed 75)<br /><br />With the #6 Performance Score in the Carolina League in 2010, Tejeda made significant strides offensively. A converted shortstop, Tejeda demonstrated above average defensive skills playing second base. With potentially plus power and contact skills, to go along with above average middle infield speed, there is every reason to believe that Tejeda can become an above average Major League second baseman. However, only 21yo, there is still significant work to be done, as Tejeda’s attacking style offense leaves him vulnerable to talented pitchers. As he moves to the Eastern League (ESL) in 2011, he will have to begin to show more plate patience. While there is still considerable downside risk, Tejeda’s upside could be special.<br /><br /><br />4) <strong>Stolmy Pimentel, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 44; Control 55; HRrate 43; Stamina 68)<br /><br />Pimentel has been a fringe upper-tier prospects for a couple of seasons now, who made a major breakout when he posted the #6 Performance Score in the CAR in 2010. At 6’4”, 225lb, Pimentel, can cut an imposing figure. Pimentel uses a low- to mid-90s fastball to set up a devastating change. His curve shows at least average potential, making him a solid #2/#3 Major League starting pitcher candidate. Pimental’s control is at least average, if not slightly better, and he is showing increasing ability to pitch deeper into games. The comps show a durable, workhorse that may never be a star at the Major League level, but could be very good. Barley 21yo, Pimentel will open 2011 in the ESL, with a solid chance of seeing Boston sometime in 2012.<br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Garin Cecchini, SS</strong> –<br /><br />Cecchini opened his senior season as a Top 50 draft prospect before knee surgery cost him the bulk of his final prep year. While we still had him rated as a solid second round selection, the question entering draft day was how far he was likely to fall. The Red Sox were able to get him in the fourth round before signing him to first round money. Regarded as a hit first shortstop, his lack of fundamental quickness will likely dictate a move to third base where his contact skills should be solid above average, with potentially average power. Speed isn’t a significant part of his make-up, and is only likely to be less so after the knee injury. While we don’t foresee tremendous power, his ceiling appears to be that of an average everyday Major League third baseman. How he performs this spring is likely to dictate whether his first assignment is in the South Atlantic League (SAL) or the New York-Penn (NYP).<br /><br /><br />6) <strong>Drake Britton, LHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 65; Control 55; HRrate 49; Stamina 52)<br /><br />While we aren’t as high on Britton as are some, it isn’t because we don’t recognize the significant upside that exists with his plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s with sink. He complements that with a potentially plus curve and a change that is best described as useful. If it all comes together, we can envision a Major League #2/#3 starter. That said, with only 121 innings over three professional season and a 2009 Tommy John surgery, combined with averaging only 3.6 innings per start in 2010, we believe Britton will be most effective as a two-pitch back of the bullpen lefty, where his fastball has the potential to be a high-90s offering. Turning 22yo in May, Britton is a tad behind schedule, as he is likely to begin the year in the CAR. We’d like to see him continue his dominance there in the first half of 2011 before moving to AA in the second half of the season.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B</span></strong><a name="_GoBack"></a><br /><br />7) <strong>Josh Reddick, OF</strong> (2010– Power 67; Discipline 66; First Base Rate 28; Speed 35)<br /><br />Reddick returns to the #7 position on this list, after a year in which he opened it competing for a job and Boston and finished it as his most disappointing season as a pro. In between he did manage a Top 25 Performance Score in the International League (INT) and he did see 62 MLB ABs. Reddick profiles as a prototypical Major League right fielder, with average or better speed, a strong arm and solid contact and power skills. The downside is that he is tremendously impatient at that plate, and therefore doesn’t produce the on base numbers that you would like from a corner outfielder with likely 20HR power. All things considered, Reddick is looking more and more like a very good fourth outfield candidate. Further complicating things is the fact that, barring injury, there isn’t likely a spot in the Boston outfield for him. 24yo, Reddick seems destined for a third stint at Pawtuckett. While injury could provide opportunity for him, we would not be surprised to see Reddick dangled as trade bait come mid-summer.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Felix Doubront, LHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 56; Control 43; HRrate 77; Stamina 64)<br /><br />Like Pimentel, Doubront has been trying to break through to the upper tiers of prospect status for quite some time, as he posted the Top Performance Score in the VSL as long ago as 2005. In 2010, he posted the #7 Performance Score in the ESL, before posting the #14 Score at Pawtuckett. He also made it all the way to Boston in 2010, and looks positioned to get a long look for a bullpen job there this spring. With a low-90s fastball that he primarily uses to set up a plus change, and an adequate curve, Doubront has the upside of a solid back of the rotation Major League starter. However, it looks more likely that he will end up as a bull pen contributor. While he has an outside shot at opening the year as a left-handed arm in the Red Sox bullpen, expect him to return to Pawtuckett in 2011.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Yamaico Navarro, SS</strong> (2010– Power 67; Discipline 72; First Base Rate 53; Speed 65)<br /><br />Seemingly a bargain, Navarro was a $20,000 signing by the Red Sox in 2005. He has had somewhat of an up and down career that seemed on the way up after the 2008 season, but a wrist injury in 2009 wiped out any progress he seemed to have made. Finally, in 2010, we got that breakout offensive performance that we have been waiting five years for, as Navarro posted the ESL’s #11 Performance Score. With plus middle infield power and solid on-base skills, Navarro has the upside of an above average Major League middle infielder. The question is whether or not it will be at shortstop—the position where he would hold the most value—as his stocky build causes us to wonder if second base, or perhaps even third, may be a better fit. Questionable work ethics and a poor fundamental approach to the game leave many wondering how much of his potential Navarro can realize. The 23yo, will return to the INT in 2011.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Bryce Brentz, OF</strong> – 2010– Power 58; Discipline 32; First Base Rate 24; Speed 47)<br /><br />Brentz entered the 2010 college season as one of our top ten draft eligible position players. While he didn’t have a horrible season (.350/.400/.640) it wasn’t as strong as we expected, nor enough to allay concerns about his level of competition. Add to that his profile as somewhat of a center/right field ‘tweener’ and it is perhaps surprising that he went as high as the sandwich round where the Red Sox landed him. His disappointing pro debut left many wondering just how high his upside really is. We believe his 2009 collegiate season, where he led the nation in both average and home runs, was no fluke, and while recognizing his negatives, we see the potential of a Major League right fielder, with at least average speed and above average power. The downside is that he has an impatient approach at the plate that leads to far too many strikeouts, accompanied by far too few walks. We are willing to give him a full season of A-ball to make the necessary adjustments.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Kolbrin Vitek, 3B/2B/RF</strong> (2010– Power 63; Discipline 31; First Base Rate 57; Speed 79)<br /><br />We had Vitek rated as a sandwich round selection, but the Red Sox bought into his bat and tabbed him with their first round pick. Offense will likely never be the problem for Vitek, as he possesses 20 home run power potential, makes above average contact and has above average speed. The question is where he will find a home on defense. A two-way player at Ball State, Vitek possesses an arm that is capable of handling third base or right field. While he has good game speed, his quickness isn’t exceptional and he lacks soft hands and good fundamental footwork. For these reasons, we believe he is likely to end up a right fielder where his value will be significantly diminished. For now, the Red Sox are trying him at third base. If he shows capable of handling it, we may have him rated a bit low. Nonetheless we will have a better idea after he plays in the CAR in 2011.<br /><br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Lars Anderson, 1B</strong> (2010– Power 73; Discipline 32; First Base Rate 51; Speed 36)<br /><br />Despite a disappointing 2009 season, we snuck Anderson into the tail end of our 2010 Top 100 prospect list. After a return trip to AAA produced a .768 OPS for the 23yo in 2010, there won’t be such a lofty ranking come this year’s list. There is still plenty to like about Anderson, beginning with some of the best raw power potential in the system. The problem is that he hasn’t had the power potential manifest itself into anything more than the 18 home runs he belted in 2008, he doesn’t make consistent contact and possesses near base-clogging speed. With first base as his only plausible defensive destination, finding his offensive potential is a must. After spending parts of three seasons in AA, Anderson will see AAA for a repeat performance in 2011. This is a once-bright star that is fading rapidly.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</span></strong> – 13) <strong>Brandon Workman, RHP</strong>; 14) <strong>Jose Vinicio, SS</strong>; 15) <strong>Xander Bogaerts, SS</strong>; 16) <strong>Che-Hsuan Lin, CF</strong>.<br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-17389306148703831922011-02-18T10:56:00.001-06:002011-02-18T13:22:09.114-06:00TEAM #13 – San Diego Padres<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYwWKcEL_RFrzpNeobMcqMvGygXK9DXcS_PPP3q7qPLYATL7EK68D6KHQSiiOI05GjS6jPA7iOYnBgPuNrXYv-thtt0erRJJj8lDt7143vonQNFzfTszkRomL9ufqTzftfIAROw5sfGGfP/s1600/Jaff+Decker1.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 275px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 235px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5574905037092296642" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYwWKcEL_RFrzpNeobMcqMvGygXK9DXcS_PPP3q7qPLYATL7EK68D6KHQSiiOI05GjS6jPA7iOYnBgPuNrXYv-thtt0erRJJj8lDt7143vonQNFzfTszkRomL9ufqTzftfIAROw5sfGGfP/s400/Jaff+Decker1.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:85%;">Decker is slowly making believers</span></div><br /><br /><br />What’s that old saying about the definition of ‘insanity’? Over the last five drafts, the Padres have signed forty draft picks that were selected in the first seven rounds—70% of them from the college ranks. Yet when you look at the 12 players in the system that grade out a ‘B’ or better and were initially signed by the Padres, five of them come from Latin America, five of them from the prep ranks, and a grand total of two of them from colleges. While we certainly can blame Kevin Towers and Bill Gayton, neither of which is still in the organization, for this philosophy; Jed Hoyer and Jaron Madison didn’t deviate very much in their first draft last year—perhaps explaining why their initial draft ranked near the bottom in 2010. We aren’t advocating a preference for high school players over collegiate players—just a preference for an upside that teams like Padres don’t seem to find among the college ranks. With back-to-back disappointing drafts, it is little wonder why the Padres rankings are stepping backwards from last year (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/team-8-san-diego-padres.html">TEAM #8 – San Diego Padres</a>)—despite the talent infusion from the Adrian Gonzalez trade.<br /><br />At the Major League level, the Padres have a very good young pitching staff. The problem is that they are likely to struggle to score any runs to support it. They would like to be able to add from within, but no offensive help seems to be on the way until at least 2012. That lack of near ready players is one of the weaknesses of the Minor League system, as eleven of the top fourteen prospects played the majority of their time in A-ball or below in 2010. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t talent in the system, however, as the Gonzalez trade alone likely netted a return that boosted the Padres ten places in the rankings. There is a nice mix of high-ceiling and high-floor players, and a good breakdown between pitchers and position players. While it is far too early to call Donovan Tate a bust yet, it isn’t too soon to point the finger at some horrific first round draft choices. Between 2004 and 2008, the Padres signed seven picks that were among the first 35 players taken for a total of $10.6 million. That list: Matt Bush, Cesar Carillo, Cesar Ramos, Matt Antonelli, Kyler Burke, Nick Schmidt and Allan Dykstra; has produced a record of futility that would be difficult to match. While their Latin American pipeline remains among the game’s strongest, it will be difficult for the system to make substantial strides without better drafts. With a relatively new front office in place, we will reserve judgment on the overall direction of the franchise.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – Despite all of the criticism that he receives for not having the prototypical body type, we have been high on Jaff Decker since his debut. We ranked him in the Top 100 (#57), and #2 on our Padres list, last year and he has done little to change our mind, as he moves up this year on both lists.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – While we were more cautious about Donovan Tate than most, we still rated him #1 on this list last year. He’ll have to stay on the field to provide any value, something that has been difficult thus far, but for now Tate is far more potential than production.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A<br /></span></strong><br />1) <strong>Jaff Decker, OF</strong> (2010 Performance Scores– Power 78; Discipline 34; First Base Rate 60; Speed 42)<br /><br />The ‘tools’ community has been wishing for his failure ever since he destroyed the AZL in his 2008 debut. For if Decker succeeds, it will be a relatively disturbing development for the ‘tools’ fanatics, as he has few to none. Instead, Decker is a short, squat, thick-bodied player that looks like the kind you might find in the park at a Sunday softball game playing for beers. Despite that, he continues to rake—season after season. In 2009 he led the Midwest League (MWL) with the circuit’s top Performance Score and in 2010 he finished fourth in the California League (CAL). Decker has average corner outfield power, above average contact skills and some of the best plate patience in the Minors. The downside is that he possesses below average speed and fringing pitch recognition skills—something that has led to him posting a 21% strikeout rate over his professional career. Defensively he has the potential to be adequate at either corner. This gives him the upside of an above average everyday Major League outfielder. Decker will take his game to the Texas League (TXL) in 2011, where the critics are sure to follow. If, however, he continues on the current development curve, look for him to become an everyday outfielder in San Diego sometime in 2012.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A-<br /></span></strong><br />2) <strong>Casey Kelly, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 48; Control 52; HRrate 42; Stamina 61)<br /><br />It is difficult for us to do a Kelly ‘write-up’, because we aren’t as high on him as others are and it is difficult for it not to sound more negative than we truly believe. We’ll start by discussing what everyone likes about him. Kelly is an extremely polished 21yo, with a low-90s fastball, a plus change and a useable curve, that pitches with heavy sink that has thus far induced a GO/AO ratio of 1.58 over two seasons. With that repertoire, there is every reason to believe Kelly could become a solid #2/#3 starter at the Major League level. The problem is that many envision Kelly as a front of the rotation stud, and we just don’t see it. Start with the fact that Kelly uses his fastball to set up his change. Add to that his breaking ball is a fringe average offering. Need more? At 6’3”, 210lbs, and given his current advanced polish, we don’t find a high degree of projectability left. Additionally, Kelly has yet to post a K/ 9 IP ratio greater than 7.6—not the kind of numbers you find in the Minor Leagues for a future ‘ace’. Make no mistake, this is an elite pitching prospect, just not as elite as many believe. Look for Kelly to begin 2011 in AAA. He needs additional work on his control, so we hope that the Padres keep him there until at least September.<br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Anthony Rizzo, 1B</strong> (2010 – Power 75; Discipline 37; First Base Rate 36; Speed 64)<br /><br />Rizzo was the return piece that is supposed to end up replacing Adrian Gonzalez in the San Diego lineup sometime in 2012. That is a tall order for anyone, and certainly it is a tall order for a 21yo. All Gonzalez replacement comparisons aside, Rizzo is a quality first base prospect. He possesses plus power, as was demonstrated by his 24 home runs in 2010—more than double his previous season high—and excellent first base defense. 2010 saw him post the #4 Performance Score in the Eastern League (ESL). On the negative side, Rizzo possesses below average speed, and he needs to work on pitch recognition, as he continues to strikeout at around a 22% clip. While there is wide debate about his contact skills, Rizzo began pulling the ball more in 2010, leading to his lowest average as a pro. If all comes together, Rizzo has all the makings of an average offensive first baseman with plus defensive ability. The Padres will start him in AAA in 2011, and he could see San Diego by September.<br /><br /><br />4) <strong>Simon Castro, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 54; Control 64; HRrate 56; Stamina 72)<br /><br />We continue to waiver on Castro, sometimes believing that he could become a powerful #2 Major League starter, and other times not sure that he wouldn’t be best used as a dominating back of the bullpen reliever. Castro has been on our radar longer than most anyone, as we first took notice when he posted a Top 10 Performance Score in the Dominican Summer League (DSL) in 2006. In 2008, he posted another Top 10 Score in the Northwest League (NWL), followed by a #12 Score in the MWL in 2009 and a #8 Score in the Texas League (TXL) this past season. The point is that he has been remarkably consistent over a five year stretch—something that bodes well for his longer term outlook. At 6’5”, 210lbs, Castro is remarkably durable—averaging 26 starts for each of the last two seasons. With a low- to mid-90s fastball—that he throws from a large downward plane—and two at least average secondary offerings—all of which he has above average command, Castro has substantial upside. While the downside is limited, we do still have concerns. Castro has a tendency to over rely on his fastball. His change still needs considerable work Finally, Castro doesn’t possess the pitchability that would give us more confidence in his eventual role. The Padres skipped Castro over Hi-A in 2010, and the 22yo looks ready to take on AAA in 2011. He will battle Casey Kelly for the opportunity, if one should arise, in San Diego this season.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;"><br /></span></strong><br />5) <strong>Drew Cumberland, SS</strong> (2010 – Power 50; Discipline 68; First Base Rate 64; Speed 63)<br /><br />Cumberland was in the midst of a breakout campaign in 2010 when he injured his knee shortly after his promotion to AA. That has been pretty much the story of his professional career as Cumberland’s 303 Abs in 2010 were the most in his four professional seasons. He still managed to post the CAL’s #3 Performance Score with his first half, and we have confidence in his ability to continue on that development path. Cumberland’s bat is his most potent weapon, as he has plus contact skills and controls the strike zone with the best in the Minors. Perhaps his greatest attribute, though, is the combination of substantial athleticism, melded with an aggressive approach to the game and a high baseball IQ. Defensively he has soft hands and quick feet. While he has a strong arm, it is often erratic, causing some to suggest that he may have to move off of shortstop. His bat will play at either middle infield position, so that isn’t too much of a problem. The only other negative is Cumberland’s dearth of power that has produced only 10 home runs in 912 At Bats. Cumberland looks to be a prototypical #2 hitter at the next level, playing either shortstop or second base. He will return to the TXL in 2011, hoping to remain healthy for a full season.<br /><br /><br /><br />6) <strong>Juan Oramas, LHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 79; Control 65; HRrate 56; Stamina 48)<br /><br />Oramas is a player that has gone overlooked far too long. While his path to this point has been unconventional, it has definitely been successful. Oramas first appeared on our radar screen when he posted a Top 10 Performance Score in the DSL in 2007—as a 17yo, but didn’t gain our full attention until the Padres lent him to Mexico City in the Mexican League in 2009 where he posted unbelievable numbers for a 19yo—earning the circuit’s Top Performance Score. Proving that he could have success on U.S. soil, Oramas spent most of 2010 in the hitter friendly CAL, and posted that League’s #3 Performance Score—his best season yet. He finished up his successful 2010 with an excellent performance in the Mexican Winter League. So why hasn’t he garnered any attention? A bad-bodied prospect in the Jaff Decker mold, Oramas stands at 5’10”, 215lbs. With a fastball that is a low 90s offering, an average curve and an adequate change, there is plenty of reason to believe that he could be a solid #4 type starter, but there isn’t a lot of additional upside projection. Only 20yo, Oramas should begin 2011 in AA.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br /><br />7) <strong>Reymond Fuentes, CF</strong> (2010 – Power 41; Discipline 49; First Base Rate 56; Speed 80)<br /><br />The third piece that the Padres acquired in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, Fuentes is a prospect that is more potential than production at this stage. Athletically gifted, Fuentes best skill is his plus-plus speed. But that is far from the only thing Fuentes offers. A slightly built 6’0”, 170lbs, Fuentes makes solid contact and has reasonable strike zone management skills. While he doesn’t presently offer much in the way of power, the belief is that he will eventually become a 15+ home run per year hitter. Defensively, he covers tremendous ground, and shows plus center field defensive skills. The only real negative is that Fuentes is tremendously raw and is only likely to advance one level at a time. He will begin 2011 in the CAL and could eventually become a game changing top of the order threat.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Matt Lollis, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 43; Control 69; HRrate 65; Stamina 77)<br /><br />One of the largest players in the Minors, Lollis stands at 6’7”, 280lbs. A 15th round draft pick in 2009, Lollis had a surprising season as he posted the #5 Performance Score in the Northwest League (NWL) and a Top 10 Score in the MWL. With a low-90s fastball, an average slider, an average curve and a developing change, Lollis has a four pitch repertoire, that he commands well, that should provide him the opportunity to become a mid-rotation workhorse. The only downside is the lack of a historical record of success of pitchers his side, as conditioning will be a key determinant of future success. Look for Lollis to move up to the CAL in 2011.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Jedd Gyorko, 3B</strong> (2010 – Power 72; Discipline 56; First Base Rate 67; Speed 34)<br /><br />Gyorko was a shortstop in college who most thought would slide over to second base in the pros. We had him rated as a likely sandwich round pick, but he fell to the Padres in the second round. The Padres decided that they would try him at third base, rather than second, and they sent him to the NWL to make his debut where he posted the circuit’s #16 Performance Score. His bat is his premium tool, as he makes above average contact, has solid plate discipline, and should eventually hit 15-20 home runs per year. The negatives include being another in the bad-bodied Jaff Decker mold, possessing below average speed, and having defensive limitations. While he has enough arm for third, and surprising quickness given his 5’10”, 210lb frame, he may come up a bit short on the usual power expectations for a third baseman. You may see an offensive explosion, as Gyorko will get a crack at the CAL to open 2011.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Donovan Tate, OF</strong> (2010 – Power 63; Discipline 21; First Base Rate 58; Speed 71)<br /><br />When we wrote about Tate last year, we cautioned about his comps extensive wash-out rate and relatively low (for a #3 overall pick) expected career WAR values. That wasn’t enough for us to ignore his tremendous athleticism and we still ended up ranking him as the top prospect in the system. A year has passed, little evolution on the development curve has occurred and Tate now has more questions, as he apparently has an uncanny knack for missing time due to illness or injury. All else being equal, just these events are going to lead to a downgrade in his prospect status as he is now 20 years old with no professional At Bats outside the complex rookie leagues. An amazing athlete, Tate has a nearly unlimited Power/Speed combination potential. Defensively he covers substantial ground and has the arm of a right fielder—a position he may have to eventually transition to with Fuentes ahead of him on the depth charts. However, the big question surrounding Tate has always been whether he can make consistent enough contact, and unfortunately we are no closer to answering that. Tate will try it again in 2011, hopefully this time making his debut in the MWL.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Keyvius Sampson, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 77; Control 47; HRrate 30; Stamina 67)<br /><br />Arguably, no pitcher in the system has a higher ceiling than the 20yo Sampson. With consistent mid-90s heat, a curve that flashes potential of a plus pitch, and an average change, there is enough raw stuff here to envision a quality towards the front of the rotation starter. Unfortunately, Sampson remains more thrower than pitcher at this stage. His secondary offerings are inconsistent and he struggles mightily with command. That, however, didn’t stop him from posting the Top Performance Score in the NWL in 2010. While we have seen hundreds of these profiles never develop or end up as purely bullpen material, we can’t ignore the considerable ceiling here. Look for Sampson to make his full-season debut in the MWL in 2011.<br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Jonathan Galvez, SS</strong> (2010 – Power 59; Discipline 30; First Base Rate 67; Speed 70)<br /><br />Galvez made his US debut by posting the #2 Performance Score in the AZL in 2009. He followed that up by posting the #16 score in the MWL this past season. Signed as a 16yo, for $750,000 in 2007, Galvez is a shortstop that is likely to change positions due to fundamentally poor defensive skills. Although some have suggested a move to third base, we believe his below average arm makes second the only real possibility. While his defense may be lacking, there is absolutely nothing wrong with his offensive game. With advanced strike zone management skills that we don’t usually see in young Latin American hitters, Galvez works pitchers to gain a hitter’s advantage. F<a name="_GoBack"></a>ar from mature physically, his 6’2”, 175lb frame, portends eventual plus power and solid contact skills. His plus speed may be his most potent weapon. Galvez can get into ruts where he tries to pull everything. This leads to more strikeouts than we would like, but the overall package is extremely intriguing. We can envision a future above average offensive Major League second basemen. Only 20yo, Galvez will move to the CAL in 2011.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</strong> – 13) <strong>James Darnell, 3B</strong>; 14) <strong>Adys Portillo, RHP</strong>; 15) <strong>Edison Rincon, 3B/LF</strong>.<br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKAe8J2cNgqUsS4I_lYlIrG15IQCHBlxoSF177QKYYv1kpWFdFig9w0faLAErYACw3YzetEKZk5gSm79qn30XDB5RNdfn2xxvs_71Gf5-wrmM75aa8JAN0u0ct5txe9U5pHkajxPros729/s1600/Jaff+Decker.jpg"></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-53625035762198273992011-02-17T09:42:00.004-06:002011-02-17T10:20:05.764-06:00TEAM #14 – New York Mets<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh15RLCLUejg_-e9RZDfv0WDaXB565sbGy7mRtCNe_9P9ZDe9L8FB2YuunMOGPyxugYLu8aJtlhdya-yqSMNROyLPgwk_XAZ0_-VWRMZTZptYAXb-tJHwK3N1AwgnD5U-bRefk68RMwHoU1/s1600/Wilmer+FLores.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 300px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 250px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5574684468088078402" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh15RLCLUejg_-e9RZDfv0WDaXB565sbGy7mRtCNe_9P9ZDe9L8FB2YuunMOGPyxugYLu8aJtlhdya-yqSMNROyLPgwk_XAZ0_-VWRMZTZptYAXb-tJHwK3N1AwgnD5U-bRefk68RMwHoU1/s400/Wilmer+FLores.jpg" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"> Wilmer Flores typifies Mets’ prospect in so many ways</span></div><br /><br /><br />I am not sure that there is any team in baseball that is more in disarray than the New York Mets. Out with Omar Minaya and Rudy Terrasas and in with Sandy Alderson and Chad MacDonald. Trustees for the bankruptcy case of Bernie Madoff are looking for $300 million from the Wilpon ownership group. The pitching staff’s best pitcher is likely out until after the all-star game. Their five-time all-star center fielder has had 528 ABs over the last two seasons. The battle for second base is between a 35yo career .719 OPS hitter, a converted corner infielder/outfielder and a 21yo coming off a debut season in which he posted a .588 OPS. To add injury to insult, their top two competitors for the NL East—the Phiilies and the Braves—added a Cy Young winner and an all-star second baseman over the off season. Sandy Alderson has seventeen years at the helm of a Major League organization and is coming off of an assignment for Major League Baseball where he was charged with cleaning up the mess that is amateur scouting in the Dominican Republic—perhaps the only baseball situation more screwed up than the Mets. He is going to need every bit of that experience to right this ship.<br /><br /><br />Given the state of the franchise, our ranking of the Mets system likely comes as a surprise to some, but it remains fairly consistent with our view of the system from last year ( <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/team-16-new-york-mets.html">TEAM #16 – New York Mets</a> )—a year that saw four of our top eight ranked prospects (Ike Davis, Reuben Tejada, Jon Niese and Josh Thole) make significant contributions with the Big League club. It is an interesting organization in the sense that there are few superstars but a substantial number of players that are likely to make Major League contributions—something that would typify last year’s rookie crop. The strength of the system lies in its Latin American scouting program—something that should continue under the leadership of Chad MacDonald—as eight of the Mets Top 12 prospects hail from that region. But where MacDonald is going to have to make a difference is in the draft. Over the last five years, the Mets have been one of the draft’s lowest spending teams in all of baseball, at barely $4 million per year. The philosophy has been to draft inexpensive, high-floor, college players (20 to 4 college to prep ration in the first seven rounds). It’s a philosophy that still permeates the system today, and a philosophy that gets an organization right where the Mets find themselves—mediocre.<br /><br />Don’t mistake us. The Mets have plenty of prospects that we like—many that we like moreso than others in the industry. But even the parts that we like—like the Latin American position players-- have a problem in being too similar to each other (Wilmer Flores, Aderlin Rodriguez, Fernando Martinez and Jefry Marte for instance). Writing the profiles became essentially a ‘cut and paste’ exercise, as nearly all of the prospects fall into three or four basic categories. Understand that the Mets earn this ranking not through their potential stars but through their substantial depth of likely mediocre Major League contributors. You will find few ‘game-changers’ on this list. If Alderson and MacDonald are going to change the direction of the franchise, they are going to have to completely revamp the philosophy that brings players into the system.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – As the saying goes…The Mets are pretty much what we thought they’d be, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for glaring hits or misses. The two selections that stand out to us were our selection of Ruben Tejada at#6—believing that he will be no worse than a solid utility infielder with the upside of a Omar Infante-ish career—and our selection of Kirk Nieuwenhuis at #10—believing his 2009 season was for real and that he was destined for a career no worse than that of a 4th outfielder. Neither pick was exciting, but both were on target.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – While we were not alone, and we still haven’t given up on him, 2010 was an extremely rough season for our #5 selection—Brad Holt.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A -<br /></span></strong><br />1) <strong>Jenrry Mejia, RHP</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Dominance 54; Control 52; HRrate 49; Stamina 69)<br /><br />Back for a return engagement as the Mets’ top prospect, Mejia should have been collecting frequent flier miles in 2010, as he pitched at five different levels—most of them quite effectively. The bouncing around, for the most part had to do with a nagging shoulder problem that saw him make rehab starts in the Gulf Coast League (GCL) and Florida State League (FSL). And it is things like that ‘nagging shoulder’ that prevent Mejia from ranking higher on our list, as he has yet to pitch more than 95 innings in any of his four professional seasons. With a mid-90s fastball, a plus change and a potentially plus curve, the Mets are convinced that he has the stuff of a front of the rotation ace. We have our doubts. Start with the demonstrated lack of ability to stay healthy. Add to that the command issues that earned him a demotion in June. Then, for good measure, throw in some good—but underdeveloped—secondary offerings that are still quite a ways away from being consistent Major League quality. In the end, it is beginning to look more and more like Mejia’s best days may come in the bullpen. There is a substantial ceiling here, but plenty of questions. The Mets are likely to give Mejia a chance to earn a rotation spot this spring. Even if he comes up short, he is likely to open the season as part of the bullpen.<br /><br /><br />2) <strong>Wilmer Flores, SS/3B</strong> (2010 – Power 62; Discipline 73; First Base Rate 48; Speed 34)<br /><br />We were tempted to rank Flores #1 in the system, but in the end he is surrounded by nearly as many questions as is Mejia. Splitting his time evenly, in 2010, between the South Atlantic League (SAL) and the FSL, Flores posted the #2 Performance Score in each League. From a hit standpoint, there is tremendous potential, with lightning quick wrists and a sweet swing, Flores shows plus power potential, precocious strike zone management skills and above average contact. The questions surrounding Flores have to deal with his defensive position. He has soft hands and a strong arm, but lacks the footwork or the quickness for shortstop. The logical move is to third base, and there has been some discussion of even left or right field. We believe his bat will play at any position, but his value drops as he moves to third and even further if he goes to left. Our ranking assumes he won’t be a Major League shortstop. With nearly 300 FSL plate appearances, it is possible that Flores opens 2011 in AA—as a 19yo.<br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Matt Harvey, RHP</strong> –<br /><br />After a sophomore season that had Harvey’s draft stock in freefall, he rebounded nicely last spring and went even higher (7th overall) than we expected (mid-first round). At 6’4”, 225lbs, Harvey has additional projection on his already mid-90s fastball. He compliments the heater with a plus curve and average slider. Where Harvey struggles is with his command—as he has a tendency to overthrow, getting his mechanics out of whack. Adding to longer-term concerns is the current lack of a useable change. This is more born from lack of necessity than anything mechanical. If it all comes together, Harvey has the repertoire to pitch at the front of a Big League rotation, and we will likely get to see just how much work there remains when Harvey makes his debut in the FSL in 2011.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong><br />4) <strong>Fernando Martinez, LF</strong> (2010 – Power 70; Discipline 34; First Base Rate 27; Speed 36)<br /><br />As prospect evaluators we sometimes become the victim of our own expectations. That certainly is the case in regards to Martinez. Signed in 2005, to one of the largest bonuses ever given to a Latin American 16yo. Martinez added to the expectations when, in his debut season, he posted a .894 OPS in the SAL—as a 17yo! It may not be possible for anyone to live up to those expectations, so we will try to view Martinez’s 2010 season from the perspective of any generic 21yo prospect. In a return trip to the International League (INT), in 2010, Martinez posted the circuit’s #21 Performance Score. He possesses plus power, and average contact skills. Now the negatives, Martinez has never posted 400 PAs in any season since signing. It hasn’t been significant injuries that have gotten in the way, just numerous little nagging ones. While at one time Martinez possessed average speed, as he has matured he has slowed to a below average runner. Perhaps the biggest problem Martinez faces is his over-aggressive approach at the plate that leads to way too few walks and too many strikeouts. Defensively he appears to be a capable right fielder, but little more. While at one time he appeared destined for superstardom, now his upside looks to be that of a power hitting everyday Major League outfielder. Keep in mind that Martinez is still younger than many of the college draftees from the 2010 class. Martinez will go to camp this spring with a shot at an everyday job with the Mets. The expectation is that he at least wins a roster position.<br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Cesar Puello, RF</strong> (2010 – Power 32; Discipline 59; First Base Rate 74; Speed 80)<br /><br />Puello was part of the same 2007 Latin American class that netted Flores. While Puello is actually four months older than Flores, he has typically played a level below him. They both spent time in the SAL in 2010, where Puello posted the circuit’s #5 Performance Score. Despite all of that, there are those in the scouting community that prefer Puello because of his multi-facted game. With plus speed, average power, contact and strike zone management skills, and adequate right field defense, Puello has a ceiling of an above average every day right fielder. There are few knocks on his skill set, but one of the more glaring one is a lack of a substantial baseball IQ. While there is little doubt that Puello could eventually outperform Flores, all of our indications are that Flores is the safer bet. Look for Puello to open 2011 in the FSL.<br /><br /><br />6) <strong>Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B</strong> (2010 – Power 79; Discipline 67; First Base Rate 35; Speed 48)<br /><br />At the present time, Rodriguez is the best third baseman in the system not named David Wright. 2010 found Rodriguez using his plus power, precocious strike zone management skills and solid contact skills to post the Appalachian League’s (APY) #2 Performance Score. At 6’3”, 210lbs, and only 19yo, there is every reason to believe that Rodriguez could develop into a 30HR per year Major League third basemen. The obstacles to accomplishing that can be find in his below average speed, stiff lower body and questionable work habits. If he has to move off of third base, his value takes a significant hit. Additionally, Rodriguez will have to learn more patience at the plate. Look for him to begin 2011 in the SAL.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br />7) <strong>Jefry Marte, 3B</strong> (2010 – Power 58; Discipline 60; First Base Rate 57; Speed 37)<br /><br />Marte was signed from the same 2007 Latin American class that found Wilmer Flores and Cesar Puello. In fact, after their debut seasons in 2008, one where Marte posted the #1 Performance Score in the Gulf Coast League (ahead of Aaron Hicks), it was Marte that was considered the top prospect of the trio. However, his over aggressive plate approach has made him vulnerable to full-season league pitching, and he has yet to come close to repeating that performance. A repeat trip to the SAL in 2010 saw him finish with the #7 Performance Score. Contact is the only plus skill offensive skill that Marte exhibits, although he should hit for no worse than average power. Defensively, he is a marginal, but improving, third baseman, but there is little reason that he can’t succeed at the position. His ceiling appears to be that of an average Major League third baseman. With more than 800 ABs in the SAL, expect Marte to move up to the FSL in 2011.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Reese Havens, SS/2B</strong> -<br /><br />It was a bit of a lost season for Havens, who appeared in a total of 32 games between the FSL and Eastern League. The only positive aspect to the year was that Havens made the move to second base that we have been expecting since he was an overdraft first round pick in 2008. Make no mistake, with average power, contact and strikezone management skills, all of the pieces are there for Havens to become an offense-first second baseman at the Major League level. But at 24yo, not only is time passing him by, we are seeing an ceiling that continues to get lower. Havens will return to the ESL to begin 2011. With a solid season, he could see some time in New York in September—although 2012 is more likely.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF</strong> (2010 – Power 65; Discipline 31; First Base Rate 31; Speed 53)<br /><br />Nieuwenhuis followed up his breakout 2009 campaign with a Top 25 Performance Score in the ESL in 2010. While Niewenhuis possesses average-plus power and speed, it is his all-out approach that attracts the most accolades. While Nieuwenhuis could potentially develop into an everyday Major league outfielder, the primary obstacle to that appears to be an all-out approach at the plate that was badly exposed by the more advanced pitching in AAA. A typical low-ceiling, high-floor, college player, Nieuwenhuis will look to improve upon his 2010 performance with a return trip to the International League. All signs seem to point toward a final product as a fourth outfielder type at the next level.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Lucas Duda, OF/1B</strong> (2010 – Power 78; Discipline 54; First Base Rate 54; Speed 33)<br /><br />Watching the very large, lumbering, 6’5”, 240lb, Duda playing left field for the Mets near the end of last season was certainly entertaining. Duda earned that opportunity with a #11 Performance Score in the International League. Possessing plus power, solid contact skills and a discerning eye, Duda has the potential to hit at the Major League level. The problem is at what position. With near base-clogging speed and an arm that could best be described as poor, the outfield doesn’t seem to be an option—at least on a regular basis. Unfortunately, that leaves only first base, and with the Mets that position seems to be firmly in the grasp of Ike Davis. Barring a trade to the American League, where he would be an ideal DH candidate, Duda looks to have a future role as a power, left-handed bench bat. He’ll get a chance to win a roster spot this spring, but could well end up returning to AAA to open the season.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Brad Holt, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 40; Control 20; HRrate 55; Stamina 53)<br /><br />After tearing through his first two professional assignments in the NYP and FSL, Holt rolled an ankle upon his promotion to AA in 2009 and hasn’t been the same pitcher since. While there are signs of the raw stuff that made him a sandwich round selection in 2008; like a low- to mid-90s fastball and a potentially plus curve and change, they appear to get lost in a myriad of problems. His mechanics appear to be out of whack, he shows little sign of knowing what he is doing on the mound and his control has deserted him. We wouldn’t rank him this high, if it weren’t for a surprisingly strong performance in the AZFL that leaves us wondering if there is hope for him getting back to his pre-injury level. At his best, Holt profiles as a quality #2/#3 starter or potentially devastating back of the bullpen arm. We just have little confidence we will ever see the ‘at his best’ again. Look for Holt to return the ESL to open up 2011. All bets are off, but a rapid rise is not out of the question.<br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Cory Vaughn, OF</strong> (2010 – Power 80; Discipline 46; First Base Rate 64; Speed 70)<br /><br />After the Mets selected Vaughn in the 4th round of last June’s draft, he went on to post the New York-Penn League’s (NYP) #4 Performance Score, showing off plus power and above average contact skills. A bit larger than his father at 6’3”, 225lbs, Vaughn shows surprising athleticism and average speed. If there is a negative, it is his lack of strike zone management skills. Defensively, Vaughn covers adequate ground with a solid arm, making him a prototypical right fielder. There is enough promise here to see Vaughn as an above average offensive right fielder at the Major League level. He is likely to be tested in 2011 with a full season debut in the FSL.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</span></strong> – 13) <strong>Jeurys Familia, RHP</strong>; 14) <strong>Juan Urbina, LHP</strong>.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-37567809047913111152011-02-15T12:47:00.002-06:002011-02-15T12:53:11.663-06:00TEAM #15 – Oakland Athletics<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIyeX_YR1xfdpMWs6c97WuKpVxAG_RoPS01Jl_nu8xN8bsFpy5f_RI77ZQjvzMsTmD4RwXr-1MnIeeNoApRy26Wk0ThhHmwnIrxw9ZqBxn9Zh7SSyun18aOmAWBMiJbc-PRE3IeVzPXhN_/s1600/Grant+Green2.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 297px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5573990119305167042" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIyeX_YR1xfdpMWs6c97WuKpVxAG_RoPS01Jl_nu8xN8bsFpy5f_RI77ZQjvzMsTmD4RwXr-1MnIeeNoApRy26Wk0ThhHmwnIrxw9ZqBxn9Zh7SSyun18aOmAWBMiJbc-PRE3IeVzPXhN_/s400/Grant+Green2.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:78%;">While Grant Green still has many questions to answer, the number is far fewer than other top Athletics’ prospects<br /></span><br /><br /><br /><br /><div align="left">The Athletics’ Minor League system was a model of consistency in 2010, as only Eric Sogard (up from #21) was in the system last year, but is new to the Top 15 this time around. The other four new entrants to that list (Michael Choice, Yordy Cabrera, Renato Nunez and Aaron Shipman) were either drafted or were international signees in 2010. The result is that the Athletics ranking has not varied much from last year’s #14 finish ( <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/team-10-oakland-athletics.html">http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/team-10-oakland-athletics.html</a> ). I suppose that is what we should expect, given that the A’s top three front office leaders (Billy Beane, Keith Lieppman and Eric Kubota) have all been in their respective positions continuously since 2002—the longest such tenure in the Majors. For the Athletics, though, longevity hasn’t bred complacency, as there have been significant philosophical changes since 2008. Between 2002 and 2008 when ‘Moneyball’ was at its heyday, Oakland signed fifty-nine players that were drafted in the first seven rounds. Only eight (13.6%) came from the prep ranks—with five of those years not having a single prep player. In the two most recent drafts, seven of thirteen signees came from high school. Additionally, prior to 2008, the Athletics were extremely insignificant players in the Latin American market. Then in 2008, came the record signing of Michael Ynoa, and in the two years that have followed, Oakland has been one of the most aggressive organizations in the Latin American market, in all of baseball. While it is still likely another year or two before the impact of this is evident within the system, these are tremendously positive steps.<br /><br />Also a positive, with players like Grant Green, Chris Carter, Tyson Ross, Jemile Weeks, Michael Taylor, Josh Donaldson, Adrian Cardenas and Eric Sogard, the Athletics have a collection of ready or near ready Major League players as deep as anyone. When you combine this with one of the best young starting rotations in baseball, it is not difficult to imagine a substantial step up this season for the team in Oakland. Looking for negatives? There still aren’t a tremendous amount of high ceiling players in the upper tiers of the system. The same can be said of skill position players, with as many as half of the top twelve prospects eventually having their best position being 2B, 1B or LF. Finally, while the Major League rotation may be young and talented enough to not need an additional infusion in the near future, there is a dearth of quality starting pitching prospects after seeing players like Cahill, Anderson, Gonzalez and Braden graduate to the Big Leagues over the last few seasons. All told, we find the Athletics to be a bit of an underrated system with a solid upward trend direction.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – We have been believers in Grant Green’s bat since his sophomore year at USC, so much so that we were willing to overlook positional concerns and rate him as the organization’s top prospect in 2009—ahead of the more highly acclaimed Chris Carter. Green met our expectations in 2010, while Carter’s season was a disappointment to all.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – The A’s gambled heavily when they signed Michael Ynoa to a record $4.25 million bonus in 2008. We still believed in his upside when we assigned the #4 ranking to him on last year’s list. More elbow problems followed by late summer Tommy John surgery will keep Ynoa off the mound in 2011. He’ll be a 20yo, with a total of 9 professional innings when he returns to the mound in 2012 and the future isn’t looking nearly as bright.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A -<br /></span></strong><br />1) <strong>Grant Green, SS</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 69; Discipline 54; First Base Rate 47; Speed 55)<br /><br />A disappointing junior season saw Green drop further than he should have prior to the 2009 draft. We felt at time that the Athletics got a steal when Green lasted all of the way until the 13th overall pick, and we have seen little to change our minds. It is not that Green is likely ever to be a superstar. It is that there is little chance that he doesn’t become an above average offensive Major League infielder—regardless of whether he stays at shortstop or moves to second base. A plus contact hitter, Green doesn’t have a hit skill that isn’t at least average. The questions surround his defense, where everything except his baseball IQ rates as ‘fringy’ for the shortstop position. Our perspective is that the defense between shortstop and second base is the difference between all-star and above average Major League regular. That’s a substantially high-floor. Green will open 2011 in AA and we fully expect to see him in Oakland in September.<br /><br /><br /><br />2) <strong>Michael Choice, OF</strong> (2010– Power 70; Discipline 20; First Base Rate 33; Speed 65)<br /><br />Few players from the 2010 draft create a more divided opinion than does Choice, whom we had rated #10 on our draft board. From a performance standpoint, there are few players with more impressive numbers as he gets on base, hits for power (34 home runs in three years at Texas-Arlington) and made enough contact to rate a Top 10 Performance Score among draft eligible college players. Extremely gifted athletically, there is a power/speed combo here that makes scouts drool. But most of Choice’s critics point to his mechanics and fundamentals, claiming they raise serious concerns about his ability to continue to perform as he moves up the ladder. What we see with Choice is a player likely to strike out frequently, take enough walks to make up for his lower than desired average and steal enough bases to disrupt a defense. While he is being groomed as a center fielder, the expectation is that he ends up in left field where his power should still rate average or above. At 21yo, Choice is expected to begin 2011 in the California League (CAL). It would not surprise us to see him put up huge numbers in that circuit and perhaps no player in the system has a higher upside. Watch the strikeout totals as a key to his development.<br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Chris Carter, 1B/LF</strong> (2010– Power 79; Discipline 23; First Base Rate 45; Speed 34)<br /><br />There aren’t many players that experienced a more disappointing 2010 than did Carter who ranked as a top 20 prospect on most lists (#37 here) entering the year, posted the #18 Performance Score in the Pacific Coast League (PCL) and then had a horrendous 70 At Bat Major League debut. The funny thing is that little of what exposed Carter was unexpected, as his prodigious power was offset by his inability to hit a curve and below average speed makes it difficult to see how he defensively ends up anywhere but either first base or DH. Make no mistake Carter’s power is real; but so are the accompanying strikeouts. At 6’5”, 230lbs, Cecil Fielder and Chris Davis top his comp list, and we don’t believe that is without justificaton, as Carter has the upside to put huge power numbers, but may never be able to adjust adequately enough to consistently hit Major League breaking balls; and then even if he finds success his body-type portends an early flameout. Rather than face another season of Kevin Kouzmanoff leading the team with 16 HRs, the Athletics will almost certainly make room for him in the lineup in 2011. We expect Carter to have a run of at least a few solid Major League seasons before the negatives catch up. <br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong> </div><div align="left"><br />4) <strong>Ian Krol, LHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 52; Control 62; HRrate 46; Stamina 69)<br /><br />We expected Krol’s impressive 2010 debut, where he finished with the Midwest League’s (MWL) #7 Performance Score. Pitching for Kane County, two towns over from where he was raised, Krol was the complete package, with advanced pitchability, a 90-MPH fastball, one of the better curves in the system and a potentially plus change. Commanding the three-pitch repertoire well, Krol led the MWL in ERA before earning a late season promotion to the CAL. While, at 6’1”, 180lbs, he has limited projectability and likely doesn’t have a ceiling of more than a #3/#4 starter, he has a tremendously high floor for a 19yo pitcher. Krol will open 2011 in the CAL, where his advanced stuff should play well. Others will downgrade Krol because of his upside, the comps say that he is a better bet than most prep lefties.<br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Yordy Cabrera, SS/3B</strong> –<br /><br />Cabrera entered the 2010 high school season as one of the most highly rated prep position players after looking like a man among boys in the previous summer’s showcase events. As the season progressed, two things became clear: 1) Shortstop is unlikely to be his eventual destination and 2) he looked like a man among boys because he virtually was—two years older than much of his competition. The A’s drafted him in the second round and signed him to first round money. Athletically gifted, Cabrera has above average power and a plus arm. With average contact skills and speed, he looks like a natural fit at third base. If he were a tad younger, his profile for a prep position player would rate much higher, but at already 20yo, he will have to move fast. Expect Cabrera to make his debut in the MWL in 2011.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong></div><div align="left"><br />6) <strong>Tyson Ross, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 76; Control 34; HRrate 71; Stamina 60)<br /><br />2010 was a mixed bag for Ross, who made the Athletics’ roster out of spring training, had a bit of a roller-coaster type debut, was sent back down to AAA mid-season and then had his season end early due to nagging elbow and shoulder injuries. With a slider of the near plus-plus variety and a low- to mid-90s fastball, it is easy to see why the A’s are enamored with him, as his ceiling is that of a potential front of the rotation starter. We are a bit more cautious in our assessment, as we see his deadly fastball/slider combination as a potent back of the bullpen weapon, but we aren’t in love with his command or change-up enough to view him as a legitimate long-term rotation threat. He’ll have a chance to compete with Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy for a rotation spot this spring, but is more likely going to open the year back in the A’s bullpen.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Renato Nunez, 3B</strong> –<br /><br />Nunez is arguably the highest upside Latin American position player signing of the 2010 summer period. The A’s had been on him since their resurgence in Latin America in 2008 and paid more than $2 million to sign him. Unlike many Latin American players that are signed without the benefit of significant game action, Nunez has played on the Venezuelan Junior Team. His bat is his calling card as he makes solid contact and shows plus raw power. Like many Latin American 16yos, his over-aggressive plate approach leaves him vulnerable to the strikeout, and there are those that believe that his best defensive position will be right field. While the A’s have been relatively cautious with their placement of their Latin American signees, we will get an idea of how strongly the A’s feel about him if they bring him to the U.S. and have him open in the AZL.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Max Stassi, C</strong> (2010– Power 67; Discipline 24; First Base Rate 41; Speed 37)<br /><br />Stassi was arguably the best prep catching prospect available in the 2009 draft, where the A’s selected him in the 4th round and signed him to a first round deal. 2010 was a bit of a mixed bag, as Stassi struggled at times, was hampered most of the season by nagging injuries, earned a Top 30 Performance Score in the MWL, and clearly was one of the more impressive talents on the Kane County roster. Staying at catcher is a must for Stassi, as power is his only above average hit skill and his offensive game is unlikely to be strong enough anywhere else on the diamond. That shouldn’t be a problem though as Stassi excels at most every phase of the defensive game. Look for 2011 to fin Stassi in the CAL. <br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Jemile Weeks, 2B</strong> (2010– Power 42; Discipline 72; First Base Rate 46; Speed 65)<br /><br />As the first round pick of the Athletics in the 2008 draft, Weeks represents somewhat of a demarcation point in Oakland’s drafting philosophy. While Weeks has a bit more tools than the typical high-floor, low-ceiling collegiate product that was typical of the ‘Moneyball’ era, and the A’s have still selected college players in the first round of the two drafts since then, the system has progressively introduced more upside since that draft. More quickness than raw speed, more contact than power, Weeks best offensive attribute is his ability to not give away at bats. His profile looks like a prototypical #2 hitter. Defensively, Weeks can only be described as adequate, and that looks like his ceiling, an average everyday Major League second baseman. With less than 700 At Bats in three professional seasons, the 24yo will have to demonstrate that he can remain healthy over a full-season. Weeks will likely begin 2011 in AAA, with a strong likelihood that he finds At Bats in Oakland at some point during 2011.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Michael Taylor, OF</strong> (2010– Power 37; Discipline 48; First Base Rate 61; Speed 76)<br /><br />Like Carter, Taylor found 2010 to be an extremely disappointing season, as he began the year on most Top 100 lists, with the expectation that he would see time in the Majors, and ended the year not able to crack the PCL’s Top 50 Performance Score list. Now with the addition of Connor Jackson and David DeJesus since this time last year, the A’s outfield becomes more crowded—further reducing opportunities for Taylor. Taylor has solid contact skills, manages the strike zone well, and possesses average to slightly above speed. In 2010, his swing mechanics seemed out of whack and it resulted in the poorest power output of his career. Prior to 2010, it appeared that Taylor had the potential to become an above average everyday Major League outfielder, if last season wasn’t purely an anomaly, he may be looking at a future as a 4th outfielder type. Taylor will likely return to AAA in 2011, waiting for something to create an opening for him.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Adrian Cardenas, 2B</strong> (2010– Power 37; Discipline 73; First Base Rate 76; Speed 38)<br /><br />Although we have never been tremendously high on Cardenas, we did give him a one position nod over Weeks in last year’s guide. In 2010 Cardenas battled nagging injuries for much of the early season and bounced back and forth between the TXL and PCL. It was a tale of two seasons though, as Cardenas posted the #6 Performance Score in his return to the TXL, but managed barley a Top 40 Score in the PCL. Cardenas’ best skill is an excellent approach to strike zone management. He also possesses sound contact skills that limit his ‘floor’. That said, below average power and speed portend a limited ‘ceiling’. Defensively, Cardenas is adequate, but little more. A onetime shortstop, who saw playing time at both second and third base in 2010, Cardenas’ most valuable role could turn out to be as an above average utility infielder. Look for him to begin 2011 back in AAA and he should find some time on the Big League roster at some point during the season.<br /> <br /><br />12) <strong>Aaron Shipman, OF</strong> –<br /><br />A relatively ‘toolsy’, athletic prospect, we had Shipman pegged as a second round selection prior to the draft. The A’s were able to nab him in round three and appear to have received excellent value for the pick. Plus speed and above average contact skills are Shipman’s greatest attributes. While he could develop average power, the likelihood, as he learns to control the strikezone with a less violent swing, is that his power remains a tick below average. Defensively he covers tremendous ground, and there is now reason to believe that he can’t become a plus center field defender. The profile says top of the order offense igniter, but he will have to become more patient at the plate. Relatively raw, we expect that Shipman will start in extended spring training before joining the Northwest League (NWL) this summer.<br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /><strong>Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</strong> – none<br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.</div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-56738185594056540312011-02-14T10:10:00.004-06:002011-02-15T07:14:03.288-06:00TEAM #16 – Los Angeles Angels<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYb9_tJn2fiwABrhVqZCPJBu3QFwAXKqfeeZoxhv4Sov9KWqiNt5abRS03Mt-pq18en6r3r_r4s3HtodoE9vVdjKYjKWyFV7z493SBwehRgp1m-U-ISaKtPGDjF7Scxtc3iM_l7Kr93fJm/s1600/mike+trout1.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 300px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 400px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5573563036421997682" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYb9_tJn2fiwABrhVqZCPJBu3QFwAXKqfeeZoxhv4Sov9KWqiNt5abRS03Mt-pq18en6r3r_r4s3HtodoE9vVdjKYjKWyFV7z493SBwehRgp1m-U-ISaKtPGDjF7Scxtc3iM_l7Kr93fJm/s400/mike+trout1.jpg" /></a><span style="font-size:85%;"> Mike Trout is not only the Halos #1, but he is in the battle for overall #1</span></div><p><br /><br /><br />It has been an interesting off-season for the Angels, starting with the dismissal of long-time, and highly regarded, scouting director Eddie Bane, and ending with the horrific desperation acquisition of 32yo, Vernon Wells' contract, the one for seven years—at roughly $18 million per. This gives the Halos one of the Major’s top five payrolls, for a team that looks like it may only be the third best in the AL West. GM Tony Reagins took over in 2008, and has seen the Angels record decline in every season since. Don’t expect that trend to change in 2011, and right about now we have to view Reagins 2009 extension with considerable skepticism; as things on the Minor League front don’t appear to offer much of a different view, with the Angels now having posted four consecutive middle of the pack rankings, coming in at #16 this year—a repeat from 2010 (http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/team-18-los-angeles-angels.html) .<br /><br />It’s not as if the system is without talent, as Mike Trout is as good as any prospect in baseball and the likely four Angels in the Top 100 is more than any team we have reviewed thus far. But the system is characterized by two significant trends: 1) a dearth of starting pitching prospects—especially from the left-side, and few high ceiling prospects once you get past the first eight or so names on this list. Add to that a system that ranks in the bottom 25% in regards to depth, and you have the makings of an organization with an arrow pointing downward. The question is whether or not Ric Wilson is capable of even matching Eddie Banes’ performance—yet alone improve upon it. The good news—in addition to Trout—is that there appears to be a number of ready or near ready Major League prospects that should provide roster depth in Los Angeles or capital with which to make trades.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – This one is a slam dunk, as no one in the industry regarded CF Mike Trout higher than we did, as he was the Angels #1 prospect on our list last year and #43 overall.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – While we weren’t the only ones to miss this one badly, Trevor Reckling took a significant step backwards in 2011—certainly not justifying our #4 ranking for him.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A<br /></span></strong><br />1) <strong>Mike Trout, CF</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 52; Discipline 69; First Base Rate 79; Speed 77)<br /><br />We rarely get a chance to see comparables of a 19yo that provide the confidence in their lower limits that we find when we evaluate Trout. While that is certainly a positive, if he ends up performing toward the high-end of his comps this is a truly special player in the making. With plus-plus speed, plus contact and strike zone management skills and at least average power, Trout has the makings of a complete offensive force. Defensively, he has plus range and an average arm. 2010 saw Trout finish with the Top Performance Score in two different leagues—the Midwest League (MWL) and the California League (CAL). Trout is expected to open 2011 in the Texas League (TXL). While we don’t like to get too far ahead of ourselves, and Trout is yet to play a game above A-ball, Trout appears to have a floor of an above average top of the order offense igniter, and a ceiling of one of the best middle of the order hitters in the game.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A -</span></strong><br /><br /><br />2) <strong>Jean Segura, 2B</strong> (2010– Power 53; Discipline 75; First Base Rate 66; Speed 80)<br /><br />We have been watching Segura closely since he posted the #4 Performance Score in the DSL in 2007. From a performance standpoint, he had been somewhat overshadowed by Alexi Amarista, who has been his infield partner during the 2007 and 2008 seasons—but not in 2010, as Segura had a breakout year, finishing with the #4 Performance Score in the MWL. An exciting all-around performer, Segura shows plus speed and strike zone management skills. He has a quick bat that allows him to make solid contact and even generate average power for a middle infielder. Defensively, he has solid footwork and soft hands. The Angels would like to see if he can handle a move to shortstop, but we feel his stocky build is more suited for second base. Segura looks to possess all of the skills that would give him an upside of an above average Major League second basemen. We will be watching for another step forward as he tackles the CAL in 2011.<br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Hank Conger, C</strong> (2010– Power 51; Discipline 66; First Base Rate 67; Speed 29)<br /><br />One would think that the off-season trade that sent Mike Napoli to the Jays would have paved the way for Conger to move into at least a half-time role as Angels’ backstop in 2011, but we fear that Mike Sciosia’s penchant for defense-oriented catchers may see Conger as handicapped for playing time as was Napoli. Offense has never been the issue for Conger, as he has above average contact and strike zone management skills. If he stays behind the plate, his power should also rate at least average. The problem is that many, us included, aren’t convinced Conger can defensively become an average everyday catcher. If that isn’t the case, his near base-clogging speed would limit him to either first base or DH—where his bat is likely to come up short in an everyday role. Conger is ready to hit in the Major’s and will battle for a roster spot this spring.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+</span></strong><br /><br /><br />4) <strong>Jordan Walden, RP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 53; Control 39; HRrate 63; Stamina 27)<br /><br />Walden’s 2009 performance had many wondering if he was going to end up falling short of realizing his substantial potential. We still rated him as the Angels’ #4 prospect on last year’s list, believing that a move to the bullpen was in the offing. Sure enough, the Angels returned him to the TXL to open the 2010 season--in the pen, and while Walden did experience an adjustment period with his new role, by the time he was promoted to the Angels in August, he was once again firing bb’s like he did when he was regarded one of the system’s best prospects. Out of the pen, Walden’s fastball sits in the mid-90s and can go as high as triple digits. His next best pitch is a slider that isn’t the devastating variety that would give Walden a lethal fastball/slider combo. He will have to improve upon it—especially with regards to command, if he is to become more than an 8th inning guy. With the Angels’ closer situation unsettled, there is an opportunity for Walden to be their closer. Our expectation is that he opens the season as Fernando Rodney’s set-up guy.<br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Kaleb Cowart, 3B</strong> –<br /><br />Prior to June’s draft, Cowart ranked #14 on our board, although we, like most in the industry, liked him better as a pitcher. Cowart had other ideas, and the Angels were seemingly willing to go along for the time being. Currently a switch-hitter, but no guarantee to remain one, Cowart shows tremendous power as his major offensive skill. Only 18yo, he has an aggressive plate approach and a relatively long swing—both items that crate an excessive amount of strikeouts. Despite being a strong athlete, Cowart’s speed is barely average and is likely to decline as he matures. Defensively, while he has a plus arm, his footwork is questionable and we only see the makings of an adequate defensive third baseman. We don’t want to sell Cowart’s talent short, as he has the potential to develop into a power hitting third baseman. We just believe that he would have been better served on the mound. Look for Cowart to open the 2011 season in full-season A-ball.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B</span></strong><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;"><br /></span></strong><br />6) <strong>Fabio Martinez, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 75; Control 21; HRrate 55; Stamina 72)<br /><br />Martinez has been on our radar since finishing the 2008 season with the DSL’s #4 Performance Score. He followed that up with the Top Score in the AZL in his US debut in 2009, and added a #12 finish in the MWL this past season. The point is that he has consistently demonstrated that he stands above the typical prospect crowd. Still tremendously raw, Martinez has a mid-90s fastball that is complimented by a plus slider and a potentially plus change. The pure ‘stuff’ is there for Martinez to develop into a front of the rotation ace. However, if Martinez is to reach his upside, he will have to make significant changes. His delivery is full of motion that, while generating tremendous velocity, leaves him with abysmal command. His change still needs substantial work, and he will have to work on evolving into more pitcher than thrower. Only 21yo, look for Martinez in the CAL in 2011.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Randal Grichuk, OF</strong> (2010– Power 80; Discipline 56; First Base Rate 26; Speed 42)<br /><br />While Grichuk may end up being best remembered as the answer to the trivia question of whom the Angels selected ahead of Mike Trout in the 2009 draft, we can’t understand all of the negativity that seems to surround him. Getting the negatives out of the way first, Grichuk has rarely met a pitch that he could resist tacking a hack at. He has extreme difficulty with breaking balls, that often make him look silly. Both his arm and range can only hope to be average in right field, perhaps eventually predicating a move to left. Now for the rest of the story…Grichuk will play nearly all of the 2011 season as a 19yo, with most of it likely in the CAL. His power is the best in the system, bordering on the plus-plus variety. 2010 saw him not only post the #5 Performance Score in the MWL, but after a slow April start, he posted a .350/.370/.659. While far from a sure bet at reaching it, Grichuk has the ceiling of a significant power hitting corner outfielder. He’ll likely return to Cedar Rapids for a couple of months before moving on to Inland Empire.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Tyler Chatwood, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 38; Control 44; HRrate 62; Stamina 74)<br /><br />Perhaps on the flip-side of the Grichuk story, we have difficulty understanding all the love heaped on this 2008, second rounder. Yes, Chatwood has a fastball that he runs up into the mid-90s and a curveball that may be the best in the Angels’ system. He is also able to keep the ball down in the zone—generating a 2.02 GO/AO ratio in his three professional seasons. Finally, no one questions his aggressive, attacking, mound approach. That said, at 6’0”, 185lbs, there is little physical upside projectability left with Chatwood. His change still struggles to be an average offering, and his command is often times best described as poor. Despite owning two plus pitches, he misses way too few bats, as three stops in 2010 found him with a .261 Average Against and a meager 6.3 Ks per 9 IP. Still Chatwood managed to post the #5 Performance Score in the CAL and the #7 Score in the TXL. Don’t get us wrong, Chatwood has the ceiling a solid #2 Big League starter. But, given his size, command issues, limited projectability and lack of a Major League change, we can’t help but feel he is destined for a late inning role at the next level. Look for Chatwood to begin 2011 in the PCL.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Alexi Amarista, 2B</strong> (2010– Power 34; Discipline 78; First Base Rate 57; Speed 56)<br /><br />Amarista has now posted the #1 Performance Score in the DSL in 2007, the #5 Score in the AZL in 2008, the #6 Score in the MWL in 2009 and now the #11 Score in the CAL and #5 Score in the TXL in 2010. Amarista is a model of consistency that would likely get more notoriety if it weren’t for his diminutive 5’7”, 150lb, frame. Defense is his main calling card, as his soft hands, quick feet and solid arm earned him the designation of top defender at second base in two different leagues in 2010. Offensively, Amarista has excellent strikezone management skills, above average speed, solid contact skills and an energy level matched by few players in the Minors. Only 21yo, the only thing missing from his game is power. Despite that, Amarista exploded this winter in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he not only posted the circuit’s Top Performance Score, but belted 9 home runs in the process. Few in the industry are likely to put much credence in Amarista—given his size, but with him likely to begin 2011 in AAA, we find it difficult to see how he doesn’t get at least a crack at a Big League opportunity by 2012.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Garret Richards, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 68; Control 63; HRrate 49; Stamina 72)<br /><br />With a low-90s fastball, two potentially plus breaking balls, a 6’3”, 210lb, frame and an adequate change, Richards has the makings of the quintessential mid-rotation workhorse. Add to that a propensity for batters to beat the ball into the ground against him (2.13 GO/AO ratio as a professional) and solid command, Richards’ floor is extremely high. Our only knock is his ceiling, as his profile comps don’t provide a lot of confidence on the upside. While his 2010 season did see Richards post the #13 Performance Score in the CAL, most of the year was spent in the MWL where he couldn’t crack the Top 30. While he shows solid pitchability with his four-pitch repertoire, it often becomes far too hittable, as opposing batters have hit nearly .250 against him as a pro—despite the fact that Richards has been a tad older than we would like to see at each level. 2011 will be a critical evaluation year for Richards, as he should open the year in AA—against a competition level that will tell us far more about his future.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Trevor Reckling, LHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 37; Control 29; HRrate 48; Stamina 71)<br /><br />Reckling’s 2010 season can be classified as nothing less than an unmitigated disaster, as the 21yos jump to AAA proved more than he was ready for. Coming into 2010, Reckling appeared to be a rather polished lefty, with a high-80s fastball and some of the best secondary offerings in the Minors’—drawing comparisons to White Sox lefty Mark Buehrle. But the jump to AAA and the Angels’ desire to see less of his plus-plus change, played havoc with his season. Finally, he was returned to the TXL in mid-season to attempt to right the ship. Fortunately, Reckling was able to post the TXL’s #5 Performance Score in his return, and still shows significant promise, despite taking a step back this past season. Reckling still has the opportunity to become a solid #2/#3 Major League starter. He will give AAA another try to open 2011, with an eye towards joining the Angels before the season is out.<br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Mark Trumbo, 1B</strong> (2010– Power 76; Discipline 34; First Base Rate 41; Speed 37)<br /><br />Trumbo is an excellent example of just how high the bar is for a player that is likely limited defensively to first base. A converted pitcher, Trumbo had a breakout season in 2008 and has been posting enormous power numbers ever since. Unfortunately, power is his only plus skill, as his long swing is unlikely to ever see him making more than average contact and he whiffs (23% strikeout ratio in 2010) far too often. With below average speed, he is likely stuck as a first baseman. While he could become an adequate everyday player on a second division team, we feel he is likely to be limited to being a right-handed power hitter off of the bench. Trumbo should get a long look this spring, and even if he doesn’t break camp with the Angels, he should see Los Angeles at some point in 2011.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</strong> – 13) <strong>Cam Bedrosian, RHP</strong>; 14) <strong>Chevez Clarke, OF</strong>.</p><p></p><p><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season. </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-69635379060486888832011-02-09T14:26:00.003-06:002011-02-09T14:32:06.436-06:00TEAM #17 – Colorado Rockies<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRi1WjEdLYf71mioEiqalEuY68bV8tXG7aKN_vTnHGNpWJcXaUs8p-P0SW1Wl_05f1gx6QoQZuGg6Fw2FhbIzo7HWuWeE4ZlHQXvZr4YTYD-uM2qKIaJQaWzf1jeMy0Qx_a6yy9mmp-OYv/s1600/Tyler+Matzek.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 212px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 238px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5571789113540879666" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRi1WjEdLYf71mioEiqalEuY68bV8tXG7aKN_vTnHGNpWJcXaUs8p-P0SW1Wl_05f1gx6QoQZuGg6Fw2FhbIzo7HWuWeE4ZlHQXvZr4YTYD-uM2qKIaJQaWzf1jeMy0Qx_a6yy9mmp-OYv/s400/Tyler+Matzek.jpg" /></a><span style="font-size:78%;">Matzek didn't find the transition to the professional ranks as easy as many expected</span></div><br /><br />The Rockies are one of the more interesting organizations to rate, because everything about them is just so middle of the road. At the Major League level, they have a .496 winning percentage over the last six seasons. We have rated their Minor League system an average of 15th over the last five seasons including back-to-back #17s (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/team-19-colorado-rockies.html">http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/team-19-colorado-rockies.html</a>). Their international scouting program has had an average level of success, and their drafts over the last decade have vacillated from very good (2000, 2004, 3005) to very bad (2001, 2006, 2007), but, on balance, have been pretty average. The only thing that isn’t really average is the stability of their front office, as the Rockies have had only two GMs over the last two decades, and the current leadership of Dan O’Dowd, as GM, and Bill Schmidt, as Scouting Director, have been in their respective roles for more than a decade. Given all that it makes it easy to expect more of the same moving forward.<br /><br />Nothing about the Rockies’ system jumps out at us very positively or very negatively. They have some nice prospects at the top of the system, but unless Tyler Matzek finds what he had in the spring of 2009, none of them really are the envy of the baseball world. If you scan down the team list grade-by-grade, they match-up with the number of prospects that we would expect as well as any team in baseball. They have a nice mix of hitting vs. pitching, skilled vs. less skilled positional prospects and high ceiling vs. high floor. The reality is that no team epitomizes ‘average’ moreso than do the Rockies. Most importantly there doesn’t seem to be any strategic shift that would portend movement—either upward or downward—in the near future, as the Major League team is strong enough to be competitive, but not competitive enough to likely employ any ‘all-in’ type of strategy.<br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – The Rockies are an interesting list, as 2010 saw many of their top prospects take a step back, and few unexpected ones step forward. While we realize that we are still pretty much on an island with this one, but we had Rafael Ortega at #25 last year when few had heard of him. It will likely be another year before the consensus on him swings in our direction, but he is much better than most realize.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – We could go with Friedrich at #2, but his step back was as much health related as anything else. Many would like us to see this a call for Tim Wheeler at#4, whom we knew put us out all alone, but we aren’t writing Wheeler off quite yet. Instead this will go to Delta Cleary—despite all of the caveats we placed upon ranking him at #11. Cleary won’t be found among the Rockies Top 30 this year and barely earns a C+ grade.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A</span></strong><br /><br />1) <strong>Tyler Matzek, LHP</strong> (2010 Performance Scores– Dominance 58; Control 20; HRrate 52; Stamina 69)<br /><br />Matzek ranked as a clear consensus best prep pitching prospect entering the 2009 draft, and when he lasted all the way to the Rockies at #11 it had to be considered a bargain—despite the $3.9 million price tag. After a strong showing in instructionals, Matzek debuted in the South Atlantic League (SAL), where his control abandoned him. He still finished with the circuit’s #15 Performance Score, but it was not up to expectations. Matzek was drafted, in many respects, because he possessed the complete package—potentially four pitches, a mid-90s fastball and exceptional mound presence. Little of that was on display in the SAL, as his fastball sat in the low-90s, he barely used his change and often seemed lost on the mound. Knowing what he is capable of, we are willing to chalk 2010 to adjustment. Matzek has the potential to be a front of the rotation star. He will first need to find mechanical consistency, in order to cut down on the 62 walks he issued in 89 innings in 2010. The Rockies will bump Matzek up to the California League (CAL) in 2011, where we expect to see a different pitcher.<br /><br /><br />2) <strong>Wilin Rosario, C</strong> (2010 – Power 79; Discipline 48; First Base Rate 33; Speed 38)<br /><br />Few players did more to turn potential into productivity in 2010 than did Rosario, who stamped himself among the game’s elite prospects. Already considered a virtual lock at a Big League opportunity due to his plus defensive backstop skills, the 21yo Rosario had a breakout year offensively. For the first time in his career, his plus-power was evident, as Rosario belted 19 home runs in 270 ABs, en route to earning the Texas League’s (TXL) #3 Performance Score behind the Royals’ Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Unfortunately, knee surgery cut his season short, and may delay the beginning of his 2011 campaign. While Rosario hits with authority to all fields, he still struggles with pitch recognition and plate discipline. He was not actually a burner on the base paths prior to the knee surgery and is only likely to be less mobile upon his return. Rosario’s upside is that of an above average offensive and defensive catcher at the Major League level—capable of posting 25+ home runs annually. He’ll get a chance to prove that he is recovered in 2011 in AAA, with a chance at joining the Rockies before season’s end.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A-<br /></span></strong><br />3) <strong>Nolan Arenado, 3B</strong> (2010 – Power 77; Discipline 73; First Base Rate 28; Speed 31)<br /><br />Positional concerns kept Arenado downgraded on our 2009 pre-draft board, as we had him rated as a fourth rounder. The Rockies fell in love with his bat and selected him in the second round. While we still have significant positional concerns, Arenado’s bat is lessening them for us. Offensively, Arenado can flat out rake—showing plus power and solid contact skills. Perhaps more impressively, Arenado makes two-strike adjustments that are well beyond his years. His 2010 performance saw him finish with the SAL’s #4 Performance Score. As to the negatives, Arenado is not very patient at the plate—drawing only 35 walks in 576 professional ABs. He is not very athletic, and has below average speed. A prep shortstop, there was discussion early on of converting Arenado to catcher—a position that he physically profiles well. It now appears that his eventual destination is first base, where his bat should play, but not be nearly as attractive. The Rockies will send him to assault CAL pitching in 2011.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong><br />4) <strong>Kyle Parker, OF</strong> –<br /><br />The Clemson quarterback put together a tremendous junior year on the diamond, that saw him enter the draft as a likely first round selection. The Rockies tried to sign him to a contract that would have had him give up football, but seemingly got a bargain when the saved nearly $800,000 and signed him to a deal that allowed him to play his senior year. Seemingly that is, because in his final collegiate football game, Parker went down with broken ribs that could delay his debut until April or May. A two sport athlete, the nearly full season delay to the start of his professional baseball career is not insignificant. In college, Parker demonstrated both potentially above average power and contact skills. The downside is that—despite being a two-sport star—Parker is not exceptionally athletic, and possesses only average speed. Defensively, Parker likely ends up on an outfield corner, with right field seemingly having the edge. Once healthy, look for Parker to make his debut in full-season ball—possibly in the CAL.<br /><br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Rafael Ortega, OF</strong> (2010 – Power 53; Discipline 74; First Base Rate 74; Speed 76)<br /><br />One of the players that we are considerably higher on than most, as his slight build, that offers little in the way of obvious projection, tends to dissuade the scouting community. What can’t be ignored is Ortega’s excellent strike zone management skills, plus contact skills and plus speed—none of which will be negatively impacted by his 5’11”, 165lb frame. Even his questionable power looks to be potentially average for a Major League center fielder. With his speed, he is able to cover sizeable ground in center and has a strong arm—leaving little doubt about his ability to play the position at the next level. Ortega followed up a #12 Performance Score in the DSL in 2009 by posting the Pioneer League’s (PIO) best Score this season. Only 19yo, Ortega should have plenty of opportunity to gain additional plate patience—the only thing lacking from becoming a potential game changing top of the order threat. The Rockies will send Ortega to the SAL in 2011 and we expect that he will validate our ranking.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br />6) <strong>Peter Tago, RHP</strong> –<br /><br />We expected Tago to be an early second round pick this past June, so we weren’t really shocked when the Rockies selected him in the later part of the sandwich round. At 6’3”, 190lbs, Tago has a frame that offers plenty of projection to his currently low-90s fastball. The problem is that this is a pitcher that is considerably more projection than production at this stage. With a middling curve and a barely used change, Tago’s secondary offerings require considerable work. But the old adage is that you can’t teach velocity and that is what the Rockies are betting on here. There is a lot to work with here, but little in the way of making sound projections at this point. A strong showing this spring could find Tago in the SAL—but given the rawness of his repertoire, a stint in extended spring training with a summer debut in the PIO may be more likely.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Chad Bettis, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 44; Control 71; HRrate 73; Stamina 72)<br /><br />Bettis is another pitcher that we had tabbed for the second round this past June. With a low-90s fastball, a potentially plus slider and an adequate change, the foundation for a solid middle of the rotation starter exists. Unlike Tago above, Bettis’ offerings are very refined, and he not only shows plus command, but he works down in the strike zone. The problem that prevents us from ranking him higher is that, without a true strikeout pitch, we aren’t sold on Bettis’ ability to remain in the rotation. In short stints, out of the pen, Bettis’ fastball becomes a mid-90s offering, giving him a strong fastball/slider combo. We believe that the eventual outcome will be that the Rockies will realize that a plus arm out of the bullpen is better than an adequate arm in the rotation. Look for Bettis to begin 2011 in the CAL.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Christian Friedrich, LHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 54; Control 51; HRrate 34; Stamina 67)<br /><br />After a phenomenal 2009 campaign, Friedrich came back to earth a bit in 2010, as he finished with the #14 Performance Score in the TXL. Nagging injuries played somewhat of a role in the decline, as Friedrich missed time with both a sore elbow and a shoulder muscle problem. When healthy, Friedrich shows four pitchers, with both his fastball and curve being potentially plus pitches. He demonstrates solid command, and typically keeps the ball down in the zone—despite allowing 10 home runs in 87 innings in 2010. If he can remain healthy, Friedrich can become a solid lefty in the middle of a Big League rotation. Expect Friedrich to open up 2011 in the AAA rotation, with a shot at the Major League rotation by mid-season.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Tim Wheeler, OF</strong> (2010 – Power 46; Discipline 50; First Base Rate 55; Speed 76)<br /><br />We expected more than what Wheeler has shown after the Rockies got, what we believed to be, a steal when the selected him at the end of the first round in 2009. Although he has shown little of thus far in his professional career, Wheeler possesses plus power and plus speed to go along with average contact and strike zone management skills. With a solid arm, Wheeler could play any of the outfield positions. To some degree that is part of the problem, as his critics see him as a natural fourth outfielder type. Just 22yo, he looks to begin 2011 in AA, where a breakout season offensively would restore some of the lost luster. We aren’t giving up on him just yet.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Charles Blackmon, OF</strong> (2010 – Power 67; Discipline 74; First Base Rate 49; Speed 77)<br /><br />We admit to being torn on Blackmon, as he remains one of those ‘toolsy’ athletic types that we aren’t usually high on. Now 24yo, we aren’t sure how much additional projection that we can expect. What we are sure of is that in 2010 Blackmon did offer us a glimpse of what the future likely holds, on his way to posting the #10 Performance Score in the TXL. Blackmon possesses above average contact skills, strong strike zone management skills and above average speed. Defensively he looks to be a competent center fielder, where his minimal power should not be a significant factor. If all goes right, Blackmon has the upside of an average Major League center fielder. What we see as more likely, however, is that he becomes a starting center fielder on a second division team or a fourth outfielder on a better one. Blackmon should begin 2011 in AAA and see Colorado at some time in 2011.<br /><br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Rex Brothers, LHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 76; Control 26; HRrate 71; Stamina 26)<br /><br />The Rockies had targeted Brothers as a reliever even before they used a sandwich round pick on him in 2009. With a mid-90s fastball and a plus slider, he profiles as the quintessential left-handed set-up guy. He will get the chance to earn a bullpen spot in Colorado this spring, where he will have to show improved command. Brothers could rank higher on this list, if we didn’t have the data on the contribution values of Minor League relief pitchers, as his floor is relatively high.<br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Albert Campos, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 41; Control 70; HRrate 63; Stamina 78)<br /><br />Campos made his U.S. debut in a big way, as he posted the #2 Performance Score in the PIO in 2010. A 20yo, with a 6’4”, 225lb, frame, Campos cuts an imposing figure on the mound. Possessing a low-90s fastball, a potentially plus curve, and a useable change—with solid command—all of the ingredients are present for him to become a solid mid-rotation innings-eater. Even more encouraging is his ability to keep the ball down, inducing a 1.34 GO/AO ratio in three professional seasons. If there is one knock against him, it is that Campos has yet to miss as many bats as his stuff would portend. Look for Campos to get his first taste of full-season ball in the SAL to open 2011.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</span></strong> – 13) <strong>Alving Mejias, RHP</strong>.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2010 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2010 season.<br /><br /><div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-60490045198462267262011-02-07T14:53:00.000-06:002011-02-07T14:53:00.133-06:00TEAM #18 – Arizona Diamondbacks<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL_Ws-Q3uTMTENykxMbGNP7DWQ0WAhJYx0TISVWNqtlq8XiSO6VcxgHWTsW6_4JzrxMsjcNFOaLExdCq4K7ZaFQXMc83Wa9ikdKbhnsCjZtwFiliL1DytJsodgduPzlXKkhw4cn-Cd6kvF/s1600/Jarrod+Parker.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 183px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 275px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5571023350307483154" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL_Ws-Q3uTMTENykxMbGNP7DWQ0WAhJYx0TISVWNqtlq8XiSO6VcxgHWTsW6_4JzrxMsjcNFOaLExdCq4K7ZaFQXMc83Wa9ikdKbhnsCjZtwFiliL1DytJsodgduPzlXKkhw4cn-Cd6kvF/s400/Jarrod+Parker.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:85%;">Jarrod Parker looks to be healthy once again<br /></span></div><br /><br /><br />The 2010 Diamondbacks looked to be quite far removed from the 2007 version that lost the NLCS after winning the West Division—and for good reason as only four players remained from that squad by season’s end. Now that would be fine if the Diamondbacks were restocking from a loaded farm system, but since 2008 the Diamondbacks’ Minor League system has ranked 16th, 29th and then 26th last season (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/team-24-arizona-diamondbacks.html">http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/team-24-arizona-diamondbacks.html</a>) . So finishing in the 18th position is at least an indicator that things are looking up. Looking up is a welcome change, as the Snakes top prospect last year, Jarrod Parker, spent 2010 recovering from Tommy John surgery, while their 2009 top draft choice, A.J. Pollock injured his elbow in spring training and missed the entire campaign. This combination of bad luck and poor performance cost Josh Byrnes his job and has paved the way for a new regime, headed by Kevin Towers—an interesting choice given the .489 Win Percentage in his fourteen years at the helm of the Padres . <br /><br />While we don’t envy the work that Towers has in front of him, at least the cupboard has not been left completely bear. Between a renewed Latin American effort that has seen the Diamondbacks triple the number of scouts in the region since 2007 and a 2009 draft that we ranked second overall, there is talent in the system. This was buoyed by what appears to be some successful dealing by interim GM, Jerry DiPoto, last season that not only yielded Dan Hudson at the Big League level, but added Tyler Skaggs, Pat Corbin and David Holmberg to the prospect ranks. The problem is that, with the exception of Parker, everyone of their top seventeen prospects spent most of 2010 in A-ball or lower—meaning the system is still a couple of years away from helping at the Major League level. Another problem lies in the talent distribution, as while the system is loaded with left-handed pitching prospects, Parker is the only right-hander of any consequence. Further obstacles were created with the 2010 draft, which, on the whole was a weak draft for the Diamondbacks and, was made weaker by the health situation of Barret Loux. On the offensive side of things, the strategy seems to be to find big bats—regardless if their only positional value is on the corners. <br /><br />We expect to see the Diamondbacks to continue an upward climb in these rankings over the next couple of seasons, and we wouldn’t be shocked if 2011 sees a couple more of the remaining players from the 2007 team dealt for further prospect help. So, while we don’t expect significant improvements, in the near-term, at the Major League level the future for Minor League talent offers hope. We’d just stop drafting all of those ‘corner’ bats.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – While we are fairly comfortable with how we did with the Diamondbacks’ rankings in general, our recognition of Matt Davidson (ranked #5) as an ‘underdraft’ was likely our best choice. While we still have concerns in regards to Davidson’s eventual upside, he has likely elevated his status, on a consensus basis, to just outside the Top 100 prospects in baseball. <br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – There was way too much industry consensus on the Diamondbacks’ system to make anything jump out, but looking back, A.J. Pollock may have difficulty living up to the #4 tag we placed on him last year-despite our expressed concerns.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A</span></strong><br /><br />1) <strong>Jarrod Parker, RHP</strong> –<br /><br />There was a point during the 2009 season where we were convinced that Parker had become the best pitching prospect in the Minors. Shortly thereafter, he was shut down for what eventually turned out to be required Tommy John surgery. While the return rate from the surgery has made remarkable improvements over the last decade, this remains a concern that will likely not be fully answered until sometime in 2012. The news out of instructionals has been encouraging, as not only is Parker back on the mound, but his velocity is in the mid-90s. We will get a chance to see what this means in game conditions this spring. Parker possesses some of the highest prospect upside in baseball. If healthy, he would be competing for the mythical title of Minor’s best pitching prospect. Hopefully we will have a better idea of how close he is to his former self by mid-year. While it is possible that Parker will see Arizona at sometime in 2011, look for the Diamondbacks to be very cautious with him and his innings. He is likely to begin the year in AA.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A -<br /></span></strong><br />2) <strong>Tyler Skaggs, LHP</strong> (2010 Performance Scores– Dominance 63; Control 67; HRrate 48; Stamina 63)<br /><br />A late season injury his senior season caused Skaggs to slip a bit in the 2009 draft, but for most of his senior season he was among the elite prep pitchers in a strong prep draft class. While we liked Skaggs coming into 2010, his performance even surprised us, as he posted the #3 Performance Score in the MWL—behind Shelby Miller and Jacob Turner. The Diamondbacks thought so much of Skaggs that they made him the key piece in the trade that sent Dan Haren to the Angels. At 6’4”, 195lbs, there appears to be plenty of projection with his 90MPH fastball, but the reality is that his fastball’s main value is in setting up his plus-curve. Skaggs toyed with MWL hitters in 2010, as he is able to command his fastball/curveball combo with pin point control. The only thing standing in the way of Skaggs becoming a solid Major League #2 is a playable change. Given that he won’t turn 20yo until mid-season, expect the Diamondbacks to give him plenty of time to work on the change, as he begins 2011 in the California (CAL) League.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong><br />3) <strong>Matt Davidson, 3B</strong> (2010 – Power 72; Discipline 32; First Base Rate 46; Speed 28)<br /><br />We spent most of the spring in 2009 vacillating between Davidson and Borchering, before finally coming down on the side of Borchering’s power potential. The Diamondbacks made the decision easy for themselves, as they selected both of them in the 2009 draft. With their first full season in the professional ranks complete, we still aren’t sure which of the two we prefer, but Davidson has put up the superior Performance numbers for the time being—finishing 2010 with the Midwest League’s (MWL) #8 Score. With powerful, quick hands, Davidson possesses plus power and solid contact skills. On the downside, his aggressive plate approach has seen him fan 25% of the time as a pro, and his speed is borderline base-clogging. Defensively, his upside is adequate at third base, but he may end up at first or in left field. Davidson’s value is completely tied to his bat, but that looks legitimate at any position that he plays. Look for Davidson to return to what should be a loaded team in Visalia in 2011. <br /><br /><br />4) <strong>Bobby Borchering, 3B/1B</strong> (2010 – Power 66; Discipline 47; First Base Rate 53; Speed 33)<br /><br />While Davidson has clearly posted superior numbers since the 2009 draft, we still aren’t sure that Borchering won’t end up the better hitter in the long run. Borchering has plus-plus power potential, solid contact skills and slightly better strike zone management skills than does Davidson. In addition, his switch-hitting ability gives him another small advantage. What was even more encouraging was how he finished 2010, going .305/.385/.532 over his last 160 PAs. Given his below average speed and poor footwork, defensively his chances of remaining at third seem minimal—despite the Diamondbacks plans to keep him there in 2011. While Borchering hasn’t quite lived up to our 2009 pre-draft expectations, if he carries over his 2010 finish into the CAL in 2011, he is likely to considerably move up the prospect lists. We wouldn’t be betting against it. <br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Chris Owings, SS</strong> (2010 – Power 62; Discipline 63; First Base Rate 36; Speed 31)<br /><br />While Owings has slowly crept up in our estimation, ceiling concerns still trouble us in assessing him. Nonetheless, before foot tendon issues cut his 2010 season short, he managed the #12 Performance Score in the MWL. On the positive side, Owings looks to possess average middle infield power and contact skills with solid strike zone management skills. The downside is that he has only average speed and a frame that may make that below average by the time he fills out. He is extremely impatient at the plate, something that makes him look more like a #7 or #8 hitter to us. Defensively, he has an upside of being adequate at short or solid at second. While the ceiling may be that of an average starting shortstop on a second division team, his comps look more like a utility infielder. Don’t get us wrong here, there is a lot to like, we just aren’t enamored with his projection curve. Owings should begin 2011 in the CAL.<br /> <br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B</span></strong><br /><br /><br />6) <strong>Patrick Corbin, LHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 63; Control 66; HRrate 36; Stamina 31)<br /><br />Acquired from the Angels in the Dan Haren trade, Corbin put together a solid 2010 campaign, as he posted a Top 20 Performance Score in the MWL, before posting the #4 Performance Score in the CAL. While his raw stuff shows promise, it his projection that has us most intrigued, as he is presently a slightly built 6’3” lefthander with a 90MPH fastball, that, at times, possesses filthy movement. His secondary offerings would best be categorized as ‘developing’ with at least average potential. He commands his entire repertoire well and scores high on his pitchability. The downside is that Corbin is a JuCo pitcher that will turn 22yo this season. The time for physical maturation is upon him, and one must face the potential that there may not be much in the way of additional development. The difference between the two scenarios is a potential #2/#3 vs a #4/#5. Corbin is likely to be bumped up to AA in 2011, where we will be looking for a bit of an uptick on his fastball and more consistent confidence with his secondary offerings. <br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Marc Krauss, LF</strong> (2010 – Power 71; Discipline 37; First Base Rate 58; Speed 29)<br /><br />We have been enamored with Krauss’ hitting ability since he posted a Top 10 Performance Score his junior year at Ohio. The Diamondbacks selected him in the second round, and he has continued to flat out mash since signing. 2010 saw him pound 25 home runs in the CAL. With plus power and above average contact skills, there is little doubt as to whether Krauss can hit. The questions come in to play with his lack of patience at the plate, nearly base-clogging speed and defensive limitations to left field or first base. The 23yo looks to begin 2011 in AA, where he must continue to rake if he is to be given serious Major League consideration.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong> A.J. Pollock, OF</strong> –<br /><br />We have had upside concerns with Pollock since before the 2009 draft, as he appeared to possess a tremendously high floor as a quality Major League fourth outfielder type, but little in the way of star potential. Losing the 2010 season to a fractured elbow, didn’t help his standing. Pollock is extremely advanced, and so the lost season may not hurt him as much as it might some. While he was ticketed to begin 2010 in the CAL, it is possible that the Diamondbacks could begin the 2011 season in AA. His 2009 MWL performance was not as strong as we would have liked to have seen, so we still have a great deal of questions surrounding his long-term prospects as an everyday player.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>David Holmberg, LHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 49; Control 65; HRrate 65; Stamina 74)<br /><br />‘Crafty lefties’ who have never pitched in full-season ball are not usually greeted with much fanfare, but Holmberg does it so well, that we would be remiss to overlook him. The scouts will describe his fastball as barely a 90mph offering that offers little in the way of projection. What we will tell you is that his fastball is merely one of four offerings that he commands exceptionally well and that he gets batters to consistently beat into the ground (1.80 GO/AO ratio). At 6’4”, 220lbs and 20yo, Holmberg is a ‘hoss’ who looks to be tremendously durable and has the upside of a mid-rotation innings eater. We’ll know more in 2011 as Holmberg will get his first taste of full-season ball, but we think more of him than do most.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Ty Linton, OF</strong> –<br /><br />One of the more athletic prospects in the system, the Diamondbacks drafted Linton in the 14th round, but signed him to first round money. We had him as a solid early third round talent. Linton oozes tools, but is underdeveloped as a baseball player due to his two-sport prep career. With potentially plus power and plus speed, Linton could eventually develop into a quality Major League right fielder. But the cautionary note here is that this is all projection at this point, as Linton lacks performance success at this stage. Look for the Diamondbacks to keep him in extended spring training before likely assigning him to the Pioneer League (PIO) this summer.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Paul Goldschmidt, 1B</strong> (2010 – Power 79; Discipline 27; First Base Rate 43; Speed 53)<br /><br />Goldschmidt fits the mold of many of the prospects that have appeared ahead of him on this list. That being he possesses significant hitting skills (especially his plus power), but strikes out far too often (26%) and is defensively limited to first base. We have difficulty in ranking Goldschmidt, because his bat is difficult to ignore, but the profile says power right-handed bench bat. We worry that his long swing will be exposed a great deal in 2011 as Goldschmidt moves up to AA. If he handles the jump better than we expect, he has the potential to move up on this list.<br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Raul Navarro, SS</strong> (2010 – Power 33; Discipline 69; First Base Rate 61; Speed 35)<br /><br />Navarro is a 19yo, shortstop prospects that we appear to be higher on than most. With solid range, good hands and a powerful arm, Navarro has the makings of a quality Big League shortstop. With a short stroke that gives him plus contact skills an advanced plate discipline skills, Navarro looks to have an offensive profile that projects to carry well as he moves up the ladder. What he will never have is more than 10-15 home run power or blazing speed. Navarro will need a solid spring to earn a full-season assignment in 2011. While we feel he might struggle a bit as one of the MWL’s youngest everyday players, we would like to see him get the opportunity.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</span></strong> – 13) <strong>Wade Miley, LHP</strong>; 14) <strong>Keon Broxton, CF</strong>; 15) <strong>Wagner Mateo, OF</strong>.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2010 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2010 season.<br /><br /><br /><div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-32840395052661349712011-02-01T15:49:00.004-06:002011-02-02T08:07:44.674-06:00TEAM #19 – St. Louis Cardinals<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi05a8vMfHFhpYAJJjzP2ucV_7E6kmKNLuHAZBl-F51pChJhFVtRiKd7PS7wHEpWYL1TlLB_izNvwOs5u-Gq5QhzGUguksTbYIksHhdtPRGNQcwaqWcEWd7huQCu8cDUNN-jqujutK8cF2j/s1600/Shelby+Miller.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 273px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 400px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5568842280438343634" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi05a8vMfHFhpYAJJjzP2ucV_7E6kmKNLuHAZBl-F51pChJhFVtRiKd7PS7wHEpWYL1TlLB_izNvwOs5u-Gq5QhzGUguksTbYIksHhdtPRGNQcwaqWcEWd7huQCu8cDUNN-jqujutK8cF2j/s400/Shelby+Miller.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:78%;">Miller has established himself as the best prep pitcher from a deep 2009 class<br /></span><br /><br /><br /><div align="left">If we only looked at the Top 10 of an organization, the Cardinals might not have moved much from last year’s dismal rankings (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/team-29-st-louis-cardinals.html">TEAM #29 – St. Louis Cardinals</a> ). But here at Diamond Futures we look at the strength of the entire Minor League system and few systems in the League possess the depth as that possessed by the Cardinals. Led by tremendous improvements in a Latin American scouting program that had been barren for most of the past decade, the Cardinals have among the three deepest systems in baseball. Jeff Luhnow deserves much of the credit, as his ascension and the doubling of the international scouting department appear to coincide. The turnaround began in 2007, reached a new level in 2009, and is starting to bear fruit in this year’s list, as half of the top six players hail from the region. The main impact has been a system that had traditionally been replete with low-ceiling college players, is now beginning to shows signs of producing players with much greater upsides. Small signs are visible in the fact that between 2006 and 2008, the first seven rounds of Cardinal drafts had produced 21 college selections vs. 2 prep selections. The last two years have witnessed that ratio fall to approximately 2:1. The benefits of the strategy shift should become more visible over the next couple of years.</div><div align="left"><br />With all that good news, that doesn’t mean we can escape the negatives. At the Major League level, 2010 produced a disappointing second place finish. A full season of Jake Westbrook and further development of Jaime Garcia should improve the rotation, but the addition of an aging Lance Berkman is unlikely to ignite an offense that has likely slipped to the below League average level. Couple that with improvements by the Brewers and Cubs over the off-season, and the Cardinals look like they will have to battle just to remain in the top half of the N.L. Central. While Cardinal fans could take solace in the half dozen or so Minor League players that are knocking on the Big League door, only Eduardo Sanchez looks to offer a potential upgrade to the existing roster, as the Cardinals premium talent remains a couple of seasons away. Further bad news exists in the middle of the Cardinals’ prospect list, as the #4 thru #25 range is among the weakest in baseball. This can partially be attributed to a player development philosophy that has seen tool-challenged college draft picks conservatively assigned, clogging up the system for higher upside players. Further changes to their drafting strategy remain a ‘must’.</div><div align="left"><br />On balance, we see the Cardinals as an under-appreciated system. There are already significant signs of future improvement. Their tremendous depth at the system’s lower levels bodes well for continued advancement toward the top half of this list. We feel the system would be further served by dealing away the glut of low-ceiling, older, near-ready prospects for additional pieces to help this year’s Major League team—any takers?<br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – This is a no-brainer, as we have been a huge Jaime Garcia advocate for a long time—ranking him among the top 100 candidates for three seasons now. We ranked him #1 heading into the season and he responded with a fantastic 2010 campaign that had him finishing third in a strong N.L. rookie class.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – On the downside, we have also been Daryl Jones believers, giving him the benefit of the doubt with regards to an injury-plagued 2009 season. While we did downgrade our long-term outlook for him to a likely 4th outfielder type in 2010, we still ranked him at #3 in a weak Cardinal system. You will have to go quite a bit farther down the list to find Jones this year.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A<br /></span></strong><br />1) <strong>Shelby Miller, RHP</strong> (2010 Performance Scores– Dominance 77; Control 60; HRrate 52; Stamina 64)<br /><br />The 2009 draft’s prep pitching class was one of the deepest in recent memory. Heading into that draft, we rated Miller third among a top six that included Tyler Matzek, Jacob Turner, Matt Purke, Tyler Skaggs and Zack Wheeler. While Purke committed to TCU, and Matzek and Turner have only basically met expectations, Miller has ascended to the top of what still appears to be an outstanding group. Rarely does a pitcher step right from the prep ranks with a fastball that is an effortless mid-90s offering and has the potential to be more. Yet Miller combines that with two secondary offerings that, while currently still developing, both show plus potential. If there is a negative, it is that Miller will be governed by his ability to display command, but this is nothing unexpected from a 20yo. The Cardinals were adequately cautious with Miller in 2010, still he edged out Turner and Skaggs for the #1 Performance Score in the Midwest League (MWL). Seeing him as their future ace, expect more of the same in 2011, with an initial assignment in the Florida State League (FSL) likely. Don’t be surprised, however, if they are unable to hold him back and he spends a good portion of the year in the Texas League (TXL)<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A -<br /></span></strong><br />2) <strong>Zack Cox, 3B</strong> –<br /><br />Cox rode a blistering start at Arkansas last spring to a Top 25 Collegiate Performance Score and our #12 ranking heading into June’s draft. Bonus demands caused him to fall to the Cardinals, where they were only happy to offer him a Major League deal. The Cardinals assigned him to the Arizona Fall League (AZFL), where despite posting respectable numbers, he hardly looked capable of justifying his $3 million plus deal. We rarely put significant stock in an unexpectedly poor debut, so we will fall back on our pre-draft assessment here. Cox’s strongest skill is a plus contact ability with solid strike zone management skills. His power projects to be little more than average and his speed a tick below. Defensively, Cox has the arm and footwork to remain at third base, but we might ask whether his offensive profile—which would be above average at second base and only average at third—might make a move across the diamond a better bet. You will find that we aren’t quite as high on Cox as some, but his talent should not be ignored either. Cox will get his first real test in the MWL this spring, but everyone expects he will see the FSL before 2011 is out.<br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Carlos Martinez (Matias), RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 80; Control 67; HRrate 55; Stamina 71)<br /><br />Martinez had originally signed with the Red Sox in 2009, but failed to pass his age/identity investigation and was suspended by MLB. The Cardinals kept up with him during the suspension, and witnessed an uptick in his velocity that prompted them to sign the then 18yo to a $1.5 million bonus as the Dominican Summer League (DSL) season got underway. Pitching in the DSL, Martinez became one of the circuit’s two intriguing pitching stories (the Mariners’ Brandol Perez being the other), as he consistently fired filthy, mid- 90s fastballs past defenseless teen hitters. Both his curve and change rate as serviceable Major League offerings. An athletically gifted pitcher, the Cardinals can envision Martinez as a future front of the rotation hurler. There remains considerable development, between here and there but we have been sold as well. Martinez will make his U.S. debut in 2011. Considering his age, a full-season assignment is not out of the question—even if unexpected. Martinez has the potential to vault up this list over the coming year.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br />4) <strong>Tyrell Jenkins, RHP</strong> –<br /><br />We had the athletically gifted Jenkins rated as an early sandwich round selection heading into June’s draft, so the Cardinals received excellent value by getting him at #50—despite the cost of his $1.5 million bonus. At 6’4”, 180lbs, there is considerable projection left on his already low-90s fastball. The rest of Jenkins is pure speculation about his upside, however, as he is tremendously raw, and thus far has none of his three secondary offerings at a level to inspire confidence. Jenkins will begin 2011 in extended Spring Training. Given his rawness, he is likely to debut in the Appalachian League (APY) this summer.<br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Oscar Taveras, OF</strong> (2010– Power 74; Discipline 61; First Base Rate 60; Speed 60)<br /><br />We doubt you will find Taveras rated higher by anyone else, but his performance—as a 18yo—that earned him the top Performance Score in the APY (edging out the more highly valued Aderlin Rodrigez and Oswaldo Arcia), was enough to make us feel extremely comfortable with this ranking—and perhaps it is conservative. Taveras quickly becomes the poster boy for the revamped Cardinals’ Latin American efforts. He shows plus power potential, advanced plate discipline skills, solid contact skills and at least average center field speed. Defensively, Taveras is a natural centerfielder, but looks to have enough bat to play a corner if that should become necessary as he matures. But I haven’t gotten to his most intriguing quality--Taveras has an extremely precocious baseball IQ. He makes all the right fundamental baseball decisions, and shows an advanced feel for situation and decision making. If it isn’t clear, consider Taveras as one of the games most underrated prospects. If we don’t wrap this up now, we’ll have to rank him even higher. Look for Taveras to begin 2011 in the MWL—as an 18yo.<br /><br /><br />6) <strong>Eduardo Sanchez, RP</strong> (2010– Dominance 75; Control 51; HRrate 57; Stamina 26)<br /><br />Regular readers will know our perspective on Minor League relief pitchers, but Sanchez is a case we believe in. With a consistent hi-90s fastball, Sanchez has spent the last two seasons breezing through FSL, TXL and PCL lineups in late inning situations. Sanchez compliments the heater with a power slider that freezes hitters. He consistently keeps the ball down in the strike zone, posting a 1.65 GO/AO ratio over the last two seasons. The downside is that Sanchez does have bouts with control, something that was on display this winter in Venezuela where he walked 12 batters in 10.2 innings. Sanchez will be given an opportunity to earn a bullpen slot with the Cardinals this spring, but expect him to return to AAA to begin the season.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Seth Blair, RHP</strong> –<br /><br />After a fine summer in the 2009 Cape Cod League and a Top 20 Performance Score his junior year at Arizona State, Blair entered the draft as a sandwich round/early second round pick—pretty much where the Cardinals drafted him. Blair has a low-90s fastball, that could become a mid-90s offering in short stints. His curve projects to at least Major League average. If he can develop an off-speed offering, Blair projects to become a quality #2/#3 starter. The downside is that Blair’s change still needs considerable work, as does his command. There are those that believe that Blair may eventually end up in a relief role, but there is no reason for the Cardinals to move in that direction right now. Look for Blair to begin 2011 in either the MWL or the FSL.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Lance Lynn, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 56; Control 54; HRrate 40; Stamina 73)<br /><br />For the last three years, Lynn has rated as the #8, the #5, and again the #8 prospect on our Cardinal list. This is the range that tells us that he is too good to dismiss, but too flawed to be special. 2010 epitomized this, as he posted the #7 Performance Score in the PCL with solid, but unspectacular numbers. Still just 23yo, the former first round selection has established a solid high floor that should result in an opportunity at some point for a mid-rotation Major League shot. Lynn is a large, durable pitcher with a fastball that is a low- to mid-90s offering. His curve is potentially a useable pitch. The flaws, however, lie with a change that remains underdeveloped, and more importantly, a tendency to frequently pitch up in the zone—something that led to him allowing 21 HRs in 2010. Lynn will enter spring training with an eye on winning a rotation spot, but, short of an injury to someone, the likelihood is that he returns to AAA.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Allen Craig, OF</strong> (2010– Power 73; Discipline 50; First Base Rate 60; Speed 37)<br /><br />We have never been tremendously enamored with the limited ceiling Craig. Now 26yo, Craig fell a bit short of the .760 OPS that we had projected for his Major League debut. Other than that though, little has changed since we rated Craig at #5 going into last season. He still possesses above average power, with average contact and strike zone management skills. His speed, or lack thereof, borders on the ‘base-clogging’ variety. There is no real upside left here, so what you have is a defensively limited corner outfielder that is not likely to produce more than a mid .700 OPS. This looks like a platoon player to us, and that is how the Cardinals are likely to use him in 2011.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B-</span></strong><br /><br />10) <strong>Daniel Descalso, 2B</strong> (2010– Power 46; Discipline 76; First Base Rate 55; Speed 58)<br /><br />The gritty Descalso is far more likely to endear himself to the Cardinal fans than he is to ever produce significant numbers at the Major League level. Exceptional plate discipline is his only plus skill. His contact skills and speed rate as average, with his power slightly below. Defensively, he is versatile, doing an adequate job at both second and third. The profile is that of a utility infielder, although he could be a solid Major League contributor for many years. We expect him to nail down a roster spot this spring.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Matt Adams, 1B</strong> (2010– Power 79; Discipline 70; First Base Rate 38; Speed 51)<br /><br />Adams is a player that we have consistently ranked higher than most, as he came in at #16 on our list last year and moves up to #11 this year after a #15 Performance Score in the MWL this past season. Adams is a great example of what reputation means on most of these lists, as he was a 23rd round draft pick, from a tiny Division II school, and received no bonus. Had his entry into professional ball been accompanied by more fanfare, then you would certainly be hearing more about him on prospect lists. What most aren’t aware of, is that his performance at tiny Slippery Rock College in Pennsylvania, was legendary, as he led all Division II hitters in 2009, with a .499/.566/.853 line and established a lore of prodigious home runs. With a burly 6’3”, 230lb, frame, the power we have witnessed the last two seasons is real and he shows remarkably strong strike zone awareness for a masher with his profile. Defensively, he is a converted catcher that shows solid first base skills, but is not tremendously athletic. His speed is below average, but not as bad as you might think, given his size. The negatives—outside of his defensive position limitations—are a lack of patience at the plate, the fact that he has faced conservative placements because of the inane Cardinal philosophy, and that he battled elbow soreness for most of the last half of the season in 2010 that forced him to be shut down a few weeks early—certainly a cause for concern. With over 700 professional ABs we have a good handle on his true performance abilities. Despite the fact that he was a 21yo in the MWL, his 41 doubles and 22 home runs, in that pitchers paradise, cannot be easily dismissed. While we don’t see a tremendous ceiling for him, it is greater than that of either Allen Craig or Matt Carpenter, who receive more accolades. Providing all is well with the elbow, we’ll find Adams terrorizing pitchers in the FSL in 2011.<br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Jordan Swagerty, RHP</strong> –<br /><br />We had Swagerty rated as a solid second round selection entering June’s draft, making the Cardinals selection of him another of their 2010 draft that we felt received good value. Swagerty throws a low-90s fastball, but uses it more to set up his plus-curve that is his out pitch. One of the college games better 2010 draft eligible closers, Swagerty does possess a change that some feel could be developed into a useable pitch and allow the possibility to consider him for the rotation. It won’t surprise us if he is in the MWL rotation in 2011. Looking down the road, we rate Swagerty higher than we would a typical bullpen prospect without a dominate fastball, as we consider the possibility of an eventual rotation assignment. That isn’t the outcome that we expect though.<br /></div><div align="left"><br /><br /><strong>Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</strong> - None<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2010 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2010 season.</div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-4189882765228097142011-01-31T11:50:00.000-06:002011-01-31T11:50:00.307-06:00TEAM #20 – Chicago Cubs<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5zbkNYfQmBKmas4mQuNHDsx0xpLenT8xboazPEI0oF4BLqNpV9L0n45s7zklnojp20rjx9HbbwMk7B5AeuBhxzJOBwT6jBonAkjpaFN_BGsF_IaQ2x-nE1swpxQIDiLqGMTvYKCrmR3z1/s1600/trey+mcnutt.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 300px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 168px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5568161832185682706" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5zbkNYfQmBKmas4mQuNHDsx0xpLenT8xboazPEI0oF4BLqNpV9L0n45s7zklnojp20rjx9HbbwMk7B5AeuBhxzJOBwT6jBonAkjpaFN_BGsF_IaQ2x-nE1swpxQIDiLqGMTvYKCrmR3z1/s400/trey+mcnutt.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:85%;">McNutt sits atop an organization without a clear #1 prospect</span></div><br /><br /><br /><br />While at first glance, it would appear that the Cubs organization is down considerably from last year’s ranking (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/02/team-6-chicago-cubs.html">TEAM #6 – Chicago Cubs</a>), the reality is that, prior to the Matt Garza deal, the Cubs were positioned to rate at least ten spots higher. This in some ways makes the deal that much more puzzling, as it clearly was a deal made from a ‘win now’ mentality. While the Cubs have lost little from a team that finished twelve games below .500 and sixteen games behind the Reds—who return virtually the same team that they put on the field last year—the addition of Garza and the minor upgrade of Pena at first base, looks to at best cut the gap between the two teams in half—not to mention they remain behind the much improved Brewers. With a payroll likely to approach $130 million in 2010, and locked into the Alfonso Soriano contract through 2014--one that remains one of the games worst, it isn’t like the Cubs possess the payroll flexibility to make additional moves to improve the team and truly make a run at the NL Central. So why mortgage the future? I could provide you with a cynical response that discusses Jim Hendry’s desire to be employed with the team beyond his current 2012 contract—necessitating the ‘all-in’ mind set. Or I could point out the Cubs’ record of draft futility under Hendry, whereby in the seven drafts prior to 2010 the yield amounts to Jake Fox, Sean Marshall, Tyler Colvin, Jeff Samardzija, Andrew Cashner, Chris Carpenter, Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson—seriously that is the best of it; giving the Ricketts’ family every reason to have someone else in place before another June comes and goes, therefore requiring a hot start in 2011 just to save Hendry’s job. But there is a better explanation for giving up what were arguably your two best prospects for one above-average Matt Garza.<br /><br />The Cubs were locked into at least $110 of that $130 million payroll prior to acquiring Pena and Garza, with the contracts of Soriano ($19.0), Zambrano ($18.9), Ramirez ($14.6), Fukodome ($14.5) and Silva ($12.8) being virtually unmovable right now. An all out rebuilding effort, and the accompanying ticket sale hit, isn’t an option with that kind of number. So the plan appears to be to at least create the appearance of competitiveness for the first half of the season, sell the tickets and reassess at the all-star break. If they truly are in it, they stand pat. If, however, the more likely scenario occurs and they fall out of contention, the contracts of Ramirez, Fukodome, Silva and Pena (a total $52 million) all expire at season’s end, making them far more attractive to a contender for half of a season and you may even get back more than you gave up for Garza, while still having Garza under control through 2013. While you’ll still have to live with the Soriano debacle, 2012 and 2013 look to be the Cubs rebuilding years, with virtually no additional payroll commitments.<br /><br />It is a perhaps a good thing that the Cubs won’t likely enter complete rebuilding until 2012, because there is little in the way of elite prospects or immediate prospect help—outside of the bullpen—presently in the system. While the Cubs’ currently lack elite level prospects, there is considerable organizational depth—only five teams have more prospects that we have graded ‘C’ or better; mostly provided by one of baseball’s more successful international programs. Between 2003 and 2009, the Cubs spent nearly $32 million on the draft; yet, the same time-frame saw them spend less than one-third of that amount on international bonuses. Those international bonuses, however, produced Starlin Castro, Hak-Ju Lee and twelve of their current top twenty-five prospects.<br /> <br />The Cubs are likely to see a steady influx of talent, from the Minors, during the second half of 2011. Our best guess is that this is a system that will not only experience new leadership over the next few seasons, but will have a vastly different makeup by 2013. This likely means a few more years of continued futility at the Major League level, but that was inevitable with the weight of those horrific contracts.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – While we still have questions about Chris Archer’s ability to be more than a two-pitch back of the bullpen reliever, we had him at #11 heading into the season, higher than everyone and considerably higher than some. This year, no one had him lower than #4 prior to the Matt Garza trade.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – The off-again on-again Kyler Burke was a horrible choice at #6, as his progression of two years per level looks to get him to the Major Leagues around 2015—at the age of 27yo.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A-<br /></span></strong><br />1) <strong>Trey McNutt, RHP</strong> (2010 Performance Scores– Dominance 75; Control 59; HRrate 60; Stamina 65)<br />We predicted in last year’s edition that McNutt wouldn’t spend more than a half-season in the Midwest League (MWL) after destroying Northwest League (NWL) hitters in his 2009 debut. What we didn’t predict was that the Florida State League (FSL) wouldn’t hold him for long and the 21yo would finish out the season in the Southern League (SOL). Along the way, McNutt posted the #11 Performance Score in the MWL and the #5 Performance Score in the FSL. 2010 saw his fastball improve to a mid-90s offering and his curve begin to look, potentially, like a plus pitch. McNutt battles with control from time to time, but that too seemed to improve as the season wore on—despite the advanced levels. Through three stops, opposing hitters managed only a .217 average against. At 6’4”, 205lbs, McNutt has all the makings of a quality Big League #2. The Cubs are likely to return McNutt to the SOL to begin 2011, as he won’t turn 22yo until the Minor League season is nearly complete. A September call-up is not out of the question.<br /><br /><br /><br />2) <strong>Brett Jackson, CF</strong> (2010– Power 68; Discipline 39; First Base Rate 66; Speed 71)<br /><br />Through the two seasons since the Cubs made Jackson a first round selection in 2009, he has showed a bit more patience than perhaps we expected, enabling him to post slight better on-base rates, but still doesn’t make contact as often as we would like to see to ensure confidence of future success. Nonetheless, Jackson split his time in 2010 between the FSL—where he posted the #5 Performance Score—and the SOL—where he rated #10. Capable of playing any of the outfield positions, Jackson’s greatest value will come of he remains in center, where his power would make him an above average offensive threat. At worst, he becomes a quality fourth outfielder, getting 400+ ABs annually. While Jackson is headed to AAA to open the year, he will likely make his way to Chicago at some point during 2011—perhaps when the Cubs find a take for Fukodome.<br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Josh Vitters, 3B</strong> (2010– Power 70; Discipline 56; First Base Rate 29; Speed 45)<br /><br />We’ll get the negatives out of the way by telling you that Vitters is never going to be a gold glove third baseman and still has miles to go to become a patient hitter at the plate. There you have it, and when you read criticism that goes beyond that…take it with a grain of salt. Vitter played nearly the entire 2010 season as a 20yo. He has shown a consistent pattern of initially struggling at each new level before putting it all together around 250-300 PAs. Last season was no different, and Vitters still managed the #3 Performance Score in the FSL and the #11 Performance Score in the SOL—despite what his detractors may lead you to believe. With the upside of an everyday, power hitting, Major League third baseman, there is a ton of potential here—it just may take a couple of additional seasons to be fully realized. With a less than 18% strikeout rate, we see no obstacles to keep him from making the necessary adjustments. Look for Vitters to return to the SOL to begin 2011. Given his youth, the Cubs aren’t likely to push him hard this season. That said, he could be ready to take on the everyday job in Chicago by mid-2012.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong><br /><br />4) <strong>Jay Jackson, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 47; Control 64; HRrate 41; Stamina 67)<br /><br />After a roller coaster-like 2009 in which Jackson experienced both extreme highs and extreme lows, 2010 was a far more steady experience as the then 22yo Jackson spent the entire season in the Pacific Coast League (PCL), posting the circuit’s #12 Performance Score with solid, if unspectacular, numbers. With a low 90’s fastball and three at least average Major League offerings, Jackson looks primed to step into the role of a mid-rotation innings eater. But there were signs of concern in 2010 that will have to be addressed first, as Jackson’s strikeout rate dipped to 6.8 batters per 9 innings and he walked half of his season’s total in his last 11 appearances. We believe Jackson’s real area of concern lies between his ears and not in his arm. He is still relatively young and must learn to better handle adversity. If he is able to make the emotional/mental adjustments the upside is solid. Look for the Cubs to return Jackson to AAA to begin 2011. He should find his way to Chicago at some point during the season.<br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br /><br />5) <strong>Hayden Simpson, RHP</strong> -<br /><br />The baseball world sounded a collective ‘Who?’ when the Cubs announced their first round selection, 16th overall, last June. We had Simpson as a 4th/5th round selection on our board, but Tim Wilken stands by what has been an oft-criticized pick. Coming from tiny Division II Southern Arkansas, where he amassed a record career, the book on Simpson was that he threw a low-90s fastball, already possessed a plus curve, and had two other potential average Big League offerings—the type of repertoire that has #3/#4 starter written all over it. But Cubs’ scouts caught Simpson in the Division II playoffs and believe his fastball is potentially a mid-90s offering, and were blown away by his curve. They believe that they got a potential #2 and believe other teams were in on him and would have nabbed him before their next pick at #65…we remain skeptical. With players that have no available performance data (no we don’t analyze Division II data), our projection model uses phenotypical data elements to develop comps, the #16 slot and $1 million bonus, may be making Simpson look better than he really is. In either case, Simpson will not make his debut until this spring in either the MWL or FSL, and we will have to wait until then to draw better conclusions.<br /><br /><br />6) <strong>Matt Szczur, OF</strong> (2010– Power 58; Discipline 73; First Base Rate 75; Speed 56)<br /><br />The Cubs have convinced him to give up his career as a running back after a solid professional debut followed his 5th round selection this past June. Many see Szczur as being short on the power tool, and question whether he can become more than a fourth outfielder type. Others see Szczur as being athletically gifted, with a chance to flourish now that his full time focus will be on baseball. We likely fall some place in between, as we believe in his plus speed and excellent plate discipline skills and question his power—if he eventually moves out of center to an outfield corner. While impressive, his 101 AB debut—spread over three stops—provided little insight into his true performance level and we eagerly await the 2011 season. We see no reason to believe that Szczur will be moving to a corner any time soon. His makeup and work ethic are off the charts. Given his football background, a right-handed Darin Erstad is an obvious and applicable upside comp. Look for Szczur to make his 2011 debut in the FSL.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Michael Burgess, RF</strong> (2010– Power 77; Discipline 28; First Base Rate 45; Speed 42)<br /><br />If you haven’t picked up on the trend quite yet, the Cubs list is littered with prospects that draw little in the way of consensus opinion. Burgess, acquired from the Nationals in the Tom Gorzelanny deal this winter is no exception. Since, the Nationals drafted him in the sandwich round in 2007, Burgess’ reputation has been one of huge power and a propensity to swing and miss way too often. 2010 was of little exception. We remain higher on Burgess than most, mainly because we believe that at some point in his development he will relax his swing and make more consistent contact. We thought we were beginning to see signs of that in a repeat performance in the CAR this year where Burgess, cut his strikeout rate to just over 20%, while posting the circuit’s #18 Performance Score. But alas, a promotion to the ESL had Burgess swinging for the fences and whiffing at an alarming rate. With a plus arm, Burgess has the requisite tools to become a power hitting, everyday, Major League right fielder. When he does make contact, he punishes the ball and the trade to Chicago automatically tabs him as the prospect with the most power potential in the system. Burgess didn’t turn 22yo until after the season ended, so he is plenty young enough to realize his potential and 2011 will be a critical year to show some evolution. Look for Burgess to begin the season in the SOL. <br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Jae-Hoon Ha, RF</strong> (2010– Power 60; Discipline 73; First Base Rate 51; Speed 56)<br /><br />Another prospect with divided opinion, Ha has those that believe that while his gap power would have been adequate as a backstop—where the Cubs envisioned him when signing him in 2008—it is never going to be enough as a Major League corner. Then there are others, us included, that believe Ha is the best kept secret in the system—possessing potentially special baseball skills. What we can tell you, with certainty, is that the MWL is no hitters paradise and the 6’1”, 185 lb, Ha slugged .468 there in 2010—as a 19yo—on his way to posting the League’s #9 Performance Score. Our models project potentially 15-20 home run power—with the upside even higher, above average contact and average speed. With clearly advanced baseball fundamentals, Ha transitioned easily to the outfield and appears to be a natural right fielder with a strong arm. Ha’s profile comps more than justify this ranking, and leave us wondering how he remains relatively unknown. While we realize we are going out on a bit of a limb with this one, we expect Ha to live up to our hype in the FSL in 2011. <br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Chris Carpenter, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 48; Control 50; HRrate 66; Stamina 69)<br /><br />A breakout 2009 put Carpenter on the prospect map, and he followed it up with a solid, albeit unspectacular 2010. Given his age, already 25yo, Carpenter would have ranked lower on this list, if it wasn’t for his intriguing AZFL campaign this fall, where pitching strictly out of the pen, we saw his fastball tick up to a mid- to high- 90s offering. Once viewed purely through the lens as of a mid-rotation starter, it may be a bullpen role for which he is best suited. With only a heavy fastball and biting slider as developed offerings, we see the grains of sand trickling through Carpenter’s hour glass, as he continues to lack a quality change and still fights control issues far too often. As a starter, he would likely require another full season in AAA, thereby making him 26yo before making his Major League debut. As a reliever, he could compete for a job this spring, and would be almost certain to see an opportunity for him in Chicago at some point in 2011.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Alberto Cabrera, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 51; Control 46; HRrate 57; Stamina 66)<br /><br />With a mid-90s fastball and two potentially average secondary offerings, the 22yo Cabrera has the makings of a solid mid-rotation starter. His 2010 FSL performance earned him the League’s #15 Performance Score. On the downside, Cabrera is in his sixth professional season and has still not shown the requisite control of a Major League starter. He is young enough to have established a solid floor as an adequate bull pen arm. The question is whether or not it will be with the Cubs, because if they make a series of unbalanced mid-season deals, as we expect, Cabrera’s roster spot will be coveted. This makes it essential for Cabrera to show development when he returns to the SOL to begin 2011, or he becomes trade bait.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Reggie Golden, OF</strong> –<br /><br />We had Golden as solid second round selection, so the Cubs received good value when they tabbed him with the 65th pick. More potential than production at this stage, Golden has plus raw power and plus speed. Defensively he currently has the range for center, but will likely end up in right where his strong arm will be an asset. The downside is that Burgess…I mean Golden… is an over aggressive hitter with limited patience at the plate and the propensity to swing and miss quite often. Golden is likely to begin 2011 in extended spring training before making his debut in the NWL this summer.<br /> <br /><br />12) <strong>Matt Cerda, 3B</strong> (2010– Power 40; Discipline 74; First Base Rate 74; Speed 46)<br /><br />Another player who we appear to be higher on than most, Cerda was originally drafted as a catcher when the Cubs selected him in the fourth round in 2008. Coming into 2010, a string of injuries had limited him to 177 ABs over his first two seasons. Out from behind the plate, the Cubs still haven’t decided on a position for him, as at 5’9”, 165lbs, he lacks the requisite power for third base and doesn’t display the fundamental quickness for the middle of the diamond. We expect that second base will be his ultimate destination, where his below average power and speed will be made up for by one of the Minor League’s best approaches to plate discipline. Only 20yo, we expect additional upside offensive projection with Cerda. At best, he becomes an adequate, everyday, Major League second baseman. With his strike zone management skills, the floor seems to be at a quality utility player. Look for Cerda in the FSL in 2011, where the Cubs will hopefully settle on a position for him.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</span></strong> – 13) <strong>Wellington Castillo, C</strong>; 14) <strong>Junior Lake, IF</strong>.<br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.<br /><br /><div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-54868716499278547542011-01-26T00:43:00.006-06:002011-01-26T08:36:11.633-06:00TEAM #21 – Washington Nationals<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1wuGYDkW5Ef9ATme5mW2a0e85b98U5AC0Z8V8zmPIknPa_e0Z1TxbwxuCVzDQxY8ZJO8HVqmCS0_IUsbvA31MJBPm3QwOCPgEcRxATLj-B8ALU8GDY4Kr_nj0W1NQtaj4zmBmXjc0zICR/s1600/Derek+Norris1.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 304px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 166px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5566382173451162834" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1wuGYDkW5Ef9ATme5mW2a0e85b98U5AC0Z8V8zmPIknPa_e0Z1TxbwxuCVzDQxY8ZJO8HVqmCS0_IUsbvA31MJBPm3QwOCPgEcRxATLj-B8ALU8GDY4Kr_nj0W1NQtaj4zmBmXjc0zICR/s400/Derek+Norris1.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:78%;">We are expecting a major step forward from Norris this season</span></div><br /><br /><br />As was forecast last year (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/team-25-washington-nationals.html">TEAM #25 – Washington Nationals</a>), the Nationals’ system is making tremendous upward progress after years as the League’s aimlessly nomadic team. Getting the #1 overall pick two years in a row doesn’t hurt any, but keep in mind that the Nationals didn’t sign a first round pick in 2008 and both of their 2009 first round picks made solid Major League debuts in 2010, taking them off of this year’s list. The point being that the improvement is coming from more than just having the best pick. While the #1 picks have been a huge part of things, the Nationals have spent heavy on the draft for the last two seasons, signing A.J. Cole, Drew Storen and Sammy Solis—in addition to Strasburg and Harper—to million dollar plus contracts. Unfortunately, this was made possible because of legal and compliance problems that essentially gutted their Latin American scouting efforts after the Carlos Alvarez/Esmailyn Gonzalez fiasco. The Nationals have not signed a major prospect out of the region since.<br /><br />On the Big League side, the Nationals are pursuing a peculiar track. After shedding nearly $35 million from 2010 payrolls by not signing or by trading players like Adam Dunn, Cristian Guzman, Josh Willingham, Willy Taveras and Matt Capps, the Nationals look to be actually increasing payroll by nearly 10% after deals adding Jayson Werth (likely a horrendous contract), Adam LaRoche, Tom Gorzelanny, Jerry Hairston and Rick Ankiel. In a division in which the Phillies and the Braves appear to be considerably better, and in a year in which their best pitcher (Stephen Strasburg) will miss due to Tommy John surgery, we find the strategy puzzling—to say the least. But let’s not dwell on the Major League roster too much, as the Nationals’ future clearly lies in the Minor Leagues. With a system headed by Bryce Harper, possibly as many as four Top 100 prospects, and three of the top thirty-four picks in what is shaping up to be an extremely strong 2012 draft, the Nationals are a team with their best days ahead.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – The Top 3 from last year’s list were pretty much consensus picks, so there is little to choose from there, even as Stephen Strasburg lived up to all of his hype. Our best pick was slotting Eury Perez at #8, as he was not an industry Top 10 selection coming into the year, but is pretty much a consensus pick now. Our #4 ranking this year, will still likely be higher than any other. We also were somewhat prescient when we warned on Justin Maxwell last year as we slid him all the way down to #17 and he had a miserable 2010 season.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – This was actually quite difficult to come up with, as we hit the Nationals better than anyone in 2010. Having to choose one, we will go with Jeff Kobernus , who we actually had lower than the industry consensus at #9, but falls outside of the top thirty this season.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A</span></strong><br /><br />1) <strong>Bryce Harper, RF</strong> -<br /><br />When your hype includes the cover of Sports Illustrated—at age 16---it would be rather difficult for the reality to match it. However, there is few among the baseball world, after watching him at College of Southern Nevada this spring and in Arizona this fall, that doubt that the hype surrounding this 18yo is undeserved. A first rate defensive backstop, the Nationals are moving Harper from behind the plate in an effort to ensure the offensive production of their prized commodity. It is difficult to describe the raw tools possessed by Harper without sounding like a pre-teen girl prattling on about their favorite Jonas Brother, but that is just the facts that surround Harper. His power may rate as the best of any prospect currently in the Minor Leagues, as he belted 31 home runs and SLUGGED .987 this spring. Granted it was a mere 40 plate appearances in Arizona, but, as a 17yo, his AZFL SLG was .629. While his hulking swing that generates his massive power leaves him vulnerable, the quickness of his bat allows him to compensate for it and still make above average contact. Despite a 6’3”, 225lb, frame, Harper is tremendously gifted, athletically, and swiped 20 bases at Southern Nevada. While he’ll never be a burner, he will have plus speed for a right-fielder. As gifted as Harper is offensively, his talents defensively may be even more impressive. With his athleticism, and a fastball that has been clocked in the mid-90s, Harper could be a plus defender either behind the plate or at third base. The Nationals will, however, use him in right field where he covers significant ground and shows a plus-plus arm. We’d use the trite cliché of ‘the natural’ to describe Harper, except that his natural abilities are only part of his exceptional makeup, as he works incredibly hard at his craft and possesses a fierce competiveness in every phase of the game. We’d tell you that his comparables, given his age/level of performance show tremendous upside, but the reality is that there are so very few comparables in our 40-plus year database—and even among those that are similar Harper exceeds the overwhelming majority. This doesn’t mean to imply that Harper doesn’t have things to work on, as we expect more polished pitchers to take advantage of all of the motion in his swing and aggressive approach. Showing solid plate discipline is likely to be the factor that governs his advancement. While it is still a relatively closely guarded secret as to where Harper opens, our bet is that he receives the majority of his At Bats in the Carolina League (CAR), where he won’t turn 19 until the season is over. That said, it wouldn’t surprise us even slightly to see him in AA before the year is out and in the Majors around mid-season 2012—no later than early 2013. The hype is deserved.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A-<br /></span></strong><br />2) <strong>Derek Norris, C</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 71; Discipline 23; First Base Rate 79; Speed 54)<br /><br />We had forecast this spring that Norris’ hamate bone injury was likely to depress his power output in 2010 and it was down roughly 20% from his 2009 levels. Consider this a one-year aberration that should correct itself in 2011, as Norris possesses plus power for a catcher. His ability to patiently wait for walks is among the best in the Minors. Norris’ ball striking ability is solid, as he sprays line drives to all fields. If it weren’t for all of those strikeouts—a 24% rate last year, up from 22% in 2009. With the graduation of Wieters, Posey and Santana to the Majors; what, for the last couple of seasons, had been a Minor League catching crop that showed strength and depth of historic proportions has thinned considerably. Not considering Montero or Myers, who are unlikely to play the position at the next level, Norris could arguably be the best backstop prospect remaining. While it used to be questionable as to whether he could defensively handle the position, Norris has made enough progress that it now seems likely he will reach the Majors as a backstop. With Wilson Ramos ahead of him, Norris has organizational competition. Look for him to begin 2011 in AA, with a chance of being in Washington in 2012.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong><br />3) <strong>A. J. Cole, RHP</strong> –<br /><br />We had Cole as a mid- to late-first round selection—one of the five premium prep arms available—entering June’s draft, so imagine the Nationals elation when he was still available with their fourth round pick. A fall that was purely based on signability, the Nationals gave him the mid-first round money, and looked to have significantly improved their 2010 draft class. With a projectable 6’4”, 180lb, frame, Cole uses a low-90s fastball as his swing and miss pitch. It may end up as a mid-90s offering. Add to that a potentially plus curve and a developing change and you have all the makings of a potential #2 starter. Look for Cole to open 2011 in full-season A-ball, with the potential to advance by mid-season.<br /><br /><br /><br />4) <strong>Eury Perez, OF</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 32; Discipline 68; First Base Rate 65; Speed 80)<br /><br />We are fairly certain that we have Perez higher than most anyone, as we have for the last three seasons. Perez added a #14 Performance Score in the South Atlantic League (SAL) in 2010 to a #7 in the 2009 GCL and a #5 in the DSL and is quickly approaching the elite prospect level. Plus speed, a good eye and solid contact skills provide Perez with the ability to be a top of the order offense igniter. Defensively, he covers sizeable ground and possesses an arm that is adequate for center field. Perez’s main negative is a lack of power that projects to be of the 10-12 HR variety. 2012 is a critical year for Perez, who is likely to begin the year in the Carolina League. He will have to avoid the slow start that he experienced in 2010 if he is to continue his upward trajectory.<br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Danny Espinosa, SS</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 64; Discipline 40; First Base Rate 53; Speed 67)<br /><br />After 22 games in Puerto Rico, Espinosa had Hamate surgery that will likely slow his ascension to the eventual role of Nationals’ everyday shortstop. Penciled in as a likely opening day middle infielder before the surgery, while Espinosa is likely to return in time for spring training, we expect his offensive performance to be slowed—especially the plus power that he projects as a middle infielder. This may lead to him beginning the season in AAA where he can work on reducing that 23% strikeout rate. With average speed, contact skills and shortstop defense, Espinosa has the upside of an at least average everyday Major League middle infielder. With more than 100 Major League at bats already under his belt, his certainty factor is solid. Expect to find Espinosa regularly penciled into the National lineup at some point this season.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br />6) <strong>Wilson Ramos, C</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 43; Discipline 63; First Base Rate 34; Speed 33)<br /><br />Acquired from the Twins in the Matt Capps deal, all told, Ramos had what must be considered somewhat of a disappointing 2010 season, as he went from being arguable one of the five best catching prospects in the Minors to being the second best backstop prospect on his team. Because of this, Ramos is likely a bit undervalued, at the moment, and has a chance to see considerable playing time in Washington this season behind the 39yo Rodriguez. With the exception of defense—where he excels—Ramos does most everything average, but possesses no plus offensive skills. His upside is that of an above average defensive catcher with a potentially average offensive skill set. He will enter 2011 battling Flores for the backup position and will likely be the favorite to hold the everyday position beginning 2012. While his ceiling is slightly higher, our guess is that Ramos spends a number of seasons as a #2 catcher on a Big League roster.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Sammy Solis, LHP</strong> –<br /><br />We had Solis pegged as a solid second round selection on draft day and therefore feel the Nationals received good value for the pickup—despite his $1 million bonus. Signing late, he pitched all of four innings before appearing in the AZFL, where we were pleasantly surprised by how smoothly he transitioned to the professional game. A large 6’5”, 230lbs, Solis possesses a low-90s fastball, but uses it primarily to set up a plus change. His breaking ball is developing, but he has the makings of a solid mid-rotation innings eater. The downside is that Solis lacks a dominant ‘out’ pitch, that limits his upside value. We expect Solis to begin 2011 in the CAR, with a chance to move to AA before the season is out.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Chris Marrero, 1B</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 61; Discipline 57; First Base Rate 59; Speed 32)<br /><br />Once considered the top prospect in the organization, the 2006 first round pick has slowly descended these rankings the last three seasons. It isn’t that his skill set has declined, it is more that it is clear that he will be limited defensively to first base, and his offensive skills have not advanced much. Still Marrero, possesses above average power to go along with average contact and strike zone management skills—all of which lead to a Top 20 Performance Score in the ESL in 2010. While it is possible that Marrero could still become an average everyday Major League first baseman, it is looking more likely that his role will be limited to a solid right-handed bench hitter. Marrero should begin 2011 in AAA, with a strong shot of getting to Washington this season.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Steve Lombardozzi, 2B</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 72; Discipline 72; First Base Rate 60; Speed 50)<br /><br />The prototypical ‘low-ceiling’, ‘high-floor’ prospect, Lombardozzi put up the best numbers of his career in 2010, posting the #16 Performance Score in the CAR before an even better showing in the ESL. Possessing no real plus tool, Lombardozzi makes up for it with a solid across-the-board skill set and a strong work ethic. His plate discipline skills are first rate and that bodes well for further development. Still just 22yo, there is little to reason to doubt that he can continue to evolve to the point of being an average everyday Major League second baseman—although a utility infielder role is more probable. Lombardozzi will return to the ESL in 2011 and should figure into that Desmond/Espinosa middle infield mix by 2012.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>J.P. Ramirez, OF</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 71; Discipline 69; First Base Rate 41; Speed 33)<br /><br />Not powerfully built, Ramirez shows surprisingly strong hit skills, as he posted a Top 20 Performance Score in the SAL in 2010. The reason he doesn’t rate higher, is that Ramirez is likely defensively limited to left field—where the offensive bar is high. Ramirez possesses average power, and reasonable strike zone management skills. On the negative side, his speed is below average and, to this point, Ramirez has not shown the patience to reach base via the walk. Only 20yo, we can’t rule out enough development to become an average everyday Major League left fielder, but the likelihood is more of the 4th outfielder type. Ramirez will move up to the CAR to begin 2011.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Brad Peacock, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 62; Control 50; HRrate 33; Stamina 72)<br /><br />The 22yo Peacock had a solid 2010 regular season, posting the #10 Performance Score in the CAR. But where he really made people take notice was his fall performance, out of the bullpen, in the AZFL—where he fanned 17 batters in 12 innings. Peacock possesses a low-90s fastball, that became a mid-90s offering in the AZFL and a plus curve. While not on par with the first two pitches, his change shows enough promise to make us believe that he could become a Major League #3/#4 type starter. That said, rest assured that the Nationals are keenly aware of his work out of the pen. With Peacock being on the smallish side, they have to be considering converting him to a reliever where he could make an impact as early as this season. Look for Peacock to begin 2011 back in the rotation in the ESL and it wouldn’t surprise us to find him in Washington before the year is out.<br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Tom Milone, LHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 69; Control 76; HRrate 63; Stamina 73)<br /><br />The prototypical ‘crafty lefty’, Milone showed his usual solid stuff in 2010 on his way to a Top 10 Performance Score in the ESL. Milone might rank higher if he had more to offer than a high-80s fastball. The fastball looks faster though due to Milone’s plus change and solid curve. Combine that with superb pitchability, and you have a prospect that doesn’t have enough tools to predict success, but too much performance to not consider the possibility. The upside is only the very back end of the rotation, but it remains a distinct possibility. Look for Milone to begin 2011 in AAA and potentially be the first pitcher called up should need arise.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</strong> – None<br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-27032570790599714492011-01-24T18:57:00.004-06:002011-01-24T19:06:26.475-06:00Bryce Harper Comparables<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_hsH8-ttYBnlIago0Qh0WFhYMiGVKamgkdOI7WjoMjqka49CaXMJt8Bkf9Ll15UQQcQJoKzr6seWYykjt-tItc4PqIuow4P3A4TGkp29ThOkCD5JrbTCMGvMTvCMOONNkTS6MawyP6xCW/s1600/bryce_harper_baseball_chosen_one.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 350px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 336px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5565921445934128418" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_hsH8-ttYBnlIago0Qh0WFhYMiGVKamgkdOI7WjoMjqka49CaXMJt8Bkf9Ll15UQQcQJoKzr6seWYykjt-tItc4PqIuow4P3A4TGkp29ThOkCD5JrbTCMGvMTvCMOONNkTS6MawyP6xCW/s400/bryce_harper_baseball_chosen_one.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:85%;">Finding Comps for Harper is a Challenge</span></div><br /><br /><br /><br />In preparation for tomorrow’s release of the Nationals, I was going over Bryce Harper’s comparables and decided to share the top 10 that our comparable player projection system produces. Because there is limited professional data for Harper, most of his comps are matched from phenotypical data elements and he is at the extreme tail of his comparison group range. In any regard, here they are:<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Dimitri Young</strong>, STL, #4, 1991 – A switch-hitter, Young entered the 1991 prep season as the clear #1 prospect before pitcher, Brien Taylor, put together an unbelievable spring campaign to claim the top spot. Still the power-hitting third basemen was the unquestioned top prep hitter available. Young spent nearly five seasons in the Minors before making his Major League debut at age 22. He played 13 Major League seasons, belting 171 career home runs. Career WAR = 10.6.<br /><br />9) <strong>Ron Blomberg</strong>, NYY, #1, 1967 – The Yankees selected Blomberg, who had been a power-hitting first baseman/pitcher in high school hoping to convert him to center field. Blomberg entered the draft as the consensus #1 prep hitter in the draft. He ended up primarily a corner outfield/first baseman, making it to the Majors at age 20 and playing a little over 220 games. Career WAR = 8.7.<br /><br />8) <strong>Jeff Burroughs</strong>, WSH, #1, 1969 – The only right-hander on this list, perhaps the only player that could come close to matching the pre-draft expectations of Harper, Burroughs , who was called by Ted Williams the best 18yo hitter that he had ever seen, was perhaps a slightly more well-regarded overall hitter than Harper. While Burroughs was considered a future power hitter—but not to the level of Harper--his real hitting skills were on the contact side. Burroughs reached the Majors as a 19yo, won the 1974 MVP and played 16 Major League seasons, but still never likely reached the level of success that was expected from him. Career WAR = 17.2.<br /><br />7)<strong>Eric Hosmer</strong>, KCR, #3, 2008 –<br />While Tim Beckham was the consensus overall #1 prep player in the 2008 draft, Hosmer was the draft’s best prep hitter. He got off to a slow start in his 2009 full-season debut, but bounced back in a big way this past season. So much so that he likely opens up 2011 as a consensus top ten prospect. Don’t expect his debut before 2012, but he is on track for a solid Major League career.<br /><br />6) <strong>Lloyd Moseby</strong>, TOR, #2, 1978 –<br />Moseby was the draft’s best prep hitter and was taken immediately after Arizona State’s Bob Horner was selected by the Braves. After three solid Minor League seasons, Moseby made his debut as an outfielder with the Jays as a 20yo. Moseby played twelve solid seasons, almost exclusively with the Jays. Career WAR = 24.1.<br /><br />5) <strong>Adrian Gonzalez</strong>, FLA, #1, 2000 –<br />Gonzalez was the top prep hitter in the 2000 draft, albeit a rather weak class—where signability was the word of the day. A first baseman viewed more as a contact hitter than a power hitter, the question with Gonzalez was whether he would ever provide enough power for the position. Four Minor League seasons did little to answer the question, as he never posted more than 17 home runs in any year before making his Major League debut finally at the age of 22yo. Seven Major League seasons, including winning the 2007 NL MVP seem to have answered the power question. While his career looks far from complete, he has accumulated a career WAR of 21.8.<br /><br />4) <strong>Mike Moustakas</strong>, KCR, #2, 2007 –<br />Moustakas was the unquestioned #1 prep hitter in the 2007 draft, a huge power threat but of questionable defensive value. After a solid full-season debut, Moustakas had a disappointing 2009 campaign before coming back in a big way in the Texas League and PCL. Positioned to be the Royals everyday third baseman at some point in 2011, the Royals continue to have extremely high hopes for Moustakas.<br /><br />3) <strong>Tyler Houston</strong>, ATL, #2, 1989 –<br />Houston was the first hitter selected in the 1989 draft, an offense first prep catcher. Six non-descript Minor League seasons made Houston pretty much an afterthought when he finally reached the Majors at the age of 25. Houston played parts of eight seasons in the Big Leagues. Career WAR = 0.1.<br /><br />2) <strong>Al Chambers</strong>, SEA, #1, 1979 –<br />Chambers was a power hitting, athletically gifted prep first baseman, who was easily the #1 prospect entering the draft. After five solid, but unspectacular Minor League seasons, Chambers made his Minor League debut at age of 22. His Major League career was pretty much of a non-event, accumulating a negative Career WAR in the process.<br /><br />1) <strong>Joe Mauer</strong>, MIN, #1, 2001 –<br />Most considered Mauer somewhat of a signability pick by the Twins in a draft where Mark Prior had received Stephen Strasburg like hype. The Twins are having the last laugh with this one, as Mauer made his Major League debut at the age of 21yo after four solid Minor League seasons and has become one of the games best players—winning the AL MVP in 2009. While his career is far from over, he has already accumulated a 38.7 Career WAR.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-45889339774463294852011-01-19T13:14:00.002-06:002011-01-19T13:20:55.585-06:00TEAM #22 – Pittsburgh Pirates<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggURqFlHWJjBcOhvTvlIzJ3GSBYjeZy4H6G1imFmGbTRONT8-6e1KYyeoZPQeqGsyzpQhyZPARqH8Zff9tYkwXYoFVyonALqykXkaNYKG_VpaG3t5hyphenhyphengoWhXtuq-qRbeH74TNest_L-k56/s1600/Jameson+Taillon1.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 250px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 400px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5563978088385880322" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggURqFlHWJjBcOhvTvlIzJ3GSBYjeZy4H6G1imFmGbTRONT8-6e1KYyeoZPQeqGsyzpQhyZPARqH8Zff9tYkwXYoFVyonALqykXkaNYKG_VpaG3t5hyphenhyphengoWhXtuq-qRbeH74TNest_L-k56/s400/Jameson+Taillon1.jpg" /></a> <div align="center"><span style="font-size:78%;">Taillon is Just the Latest Example of the Pirates’ System Resurgence</span></div><div> </div><div> </div><div> </div><div>Last year, we blasted the Pirates in this space for choosing quantity over quality in their ‘player for prospect’ deadline deals that they made in 2009. While, as we predicted, it was an effective salary dump, the only thing that it truly accomplished was ensuring that John Russell would get the axe. The 2010 Major League version of the Pirates was historically bad—that is saying quite a bit for this franchise. The Minor League system still ranks toward the bottom of the League, and the system thins out rapidly after #4 on this list, but that is pretty much where the negatives end.<br /><br />On the Major League side their lineup is lead by budding superstar, 24yo, Andrew McCutchen. He is followed in the order by last year’s #2 prospect, 22yo, Jose Tabata. Following Tabata, coming off a surprising rookie season is, 25yo, Neil Walker. Finally, the clean-up hitter is, 23yo, Pedro Alvarez, who is on his way to becoming one of the games most feared power threats. Few teams can match their combination of youth and potential at the top of the lineup. A Minor League system that has ranked in the bottom third of the League—despite repeated early picks—for seven straight years now, finally looks to be turning the corner—especially after they make the #1 overall pick this June. The Pirates’ draft that suffered from incredibly bad picks and incredibly bad luck for most of this decade, looks to have finally put together a string of solid draft classes, with the 2010 class possibly their best yet. Perhaps the most encouraging sign is that a storied International scouting program that had been relatively barren for most of the middle part of this decade has put together three straight impressive signing classes—despite missing out on Miguel Sano in 2009. <br /><br />Before we get too excited, tough, there is still likely a couple more years of misery remaining for Pirates’ fans; but give Neal Huntington his ‘props’. The turn-around has nearly perfectly coincided with his taking the reins. Turning around the Pirates that have been bad at an epic level will take time, but for the first time in a long time, things are looking up for the Bucs.<br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – We had Neil Walker at #9 last year. While that was significantly lower than the #3 or #4 that he probably should have been, it was considerably higher than anyone else, as we weren’t quite ready to throw in the towel on the former first round prospect. We were amply rewarded with a surprising Major League rookie performance.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – We should have thrown in the towel on Tim Alderson, but instead we ranked him #3. Alderson’s mechanics are completely different from those that once made him an elite pitching prospect and his velocity hasn’t returned. We will be throwing in the towel this year.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A<br /></span></strong><br />1) <strong>Jameson Taillon, RHP</strong> -<br /><br />Taillon was the consensus #2 player in June’s draft and the Pirates executed the pick as they were supposed to. We acknowledge that the draft record of top prep right-handers is concerning. Over the last 25 years only twelve of them have been chosen among the first five picks. Of that group, only Kerry Wood, John Patterson, Josh Beckett and Gavin Floyd have achieved a Major League Career WAR of greater than 3.0. That is a lot of failure at a tremendous cost. With that on the table, Taillon is a better prospect than any of what we considered to be a solid 2009 prep pitching class (Matzek, Turner, Shelby, Wheeler, Skaggs). Taillon is a huge 6’5”, 223 lb beast on the mound. His fastball comfortably sits in the mid-90s with the ability to go higher. His curve is a potentially plus-plus offering. His slider isn’t far behind. Taillon is remarkably athletic, given his size, and takes instruction well. While relatively advanced, like many prep pitchers Taillon’s change is under-developed and he still has a tendency to get out of control every so often. His upside is that of one of the best power pitchers in the game, so Pirate fans have every reason to be excited. Taillon will get acclimated to the professional game in full-season A-ball in 2011. We expect he will remain there for most of the season.<br /> <br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A-</span></strong><br /><br />2) <strong>Tony Sanchez, C</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 67; Discipline 59; First Base Rate 73; Speed 36)<br /><br />As regular readers will recall, we considered Sanchez to be an overdraft ‘signability’ pick when the Pirates selected him at #4 overall in 2009. While we haven’t changed our mind on that, Sanchez is developing along the upper limits of his curve. A broken jaw cost Sanchez a good portion of the 2010 season, but when he was healthy he demonstrated the solid, if unspectacular, offensive skills that have been his trademark since signing. Defensively, he is strong in both his catch and throw skills and his management of the game. Collectively, it adds up to a solid-average, starting Major League backstop—and that is nothing to yawn about. His AZFL return this fall was more of the same, which should put him on track for a AA assignment in 2011. He could be ready to take over the everyday duties in Pittsburgh by the beginning of 2012.<br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Stetson Allie, RHP</strong> -<br /><br />Allie possesses some of the best raw ‘stuff’ of any prep pitcher available last June. We had him as a mid- to late- first round pick (the second best prep pitcher to sign) that lasted until the beginning of round two—where the Pirates were happy to select him. Like Taillon above, Allie is a big, durable, 6’4”, 225lb right-hander. His fastball can reach the high-90s, and his slider is a potential plus pitch. The downside is that Allie doesn’t command either of them all that well and is still more thrower than pitcher. When that is combined with the lack of a useful change, many feel that Allie will best be served as a power arm out of the bullpen. The Pirates will develop him in the rotation, where his ‘stuff’ is front of the rotation level. We would have likely graded him higher, but we believe he will eventually be forced into a relief role. Look for Allie to join Taillon in West Virginia in 2011, as part of one of the most interesting rotations in full-season A-ball.</div><div><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong><br />4) <strong>Luis Heredia, RHP</strong> –<br /><br />Heredia was the Pirates big splash in the International market this year, as they signed the 16yo right-hander, out of Mexico, to a franchise record $2.4 million. At 6’6”, 185lb, there is projectability written all over him—which isn’t bad considering he is starting with a moving, low- to mid-90s fastball. Add to that a curveball that has plus potential, and a developing slider and change, and you have a remarkably polished package. His ceiling is tremendous—albeit quite a bit away. The Pirates are likely to have Heredia make his debut this summer in the GCL—around the time he turns 17yo. Rarely do we have 16yo pitchers rated so highly.</div><div><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B</span></strong><br /><br />5) <strong>Rudy Owens, LHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 64; Control 76; HRrate 59; Stamina 73)<br /><br />There is a big gap in the organization between numbers four and five. Owens made significant strides in 2009, but really had a breakout campaign in 2010 as he posted the #3 Performance Score in the Eastern League (ESL). This wasn’t just a case of an improving skill set, but actual gains were made on a high-80s fastball that has now become a fringe-average offering. This adds to an already average curve and change—all of with which he demonstrates excellent control. Where Owens was once thought to be a longshot for a Big League opportunity, he now appears to be a strong bet for a back of the rotation chance. There is still not a tremendous upside here, but Owens is likely to begin 2011 in AAA with a shot at finding himself in Pittsburgh before the year is out.<br /><br /><br />6) <strong>Quincy Latimore, LF</strong> (2010– Power 76; Discipline 37; First Base Rate 31; Speed 76)<br /><br />We are fairly certain that this is higher than you will find Latimore on any other list. Part of the reason that we place Latimore here is that he is one of the few remaining Pirate prospects with a significant ceiling and part is because we find a strong underlying power profile to take notice of. The Pirates fourth round choice from 2007, Latimore finished in our Pirate Top 30 last season and made significant improvements as a 21yo in the FSL in 2010, where he posted the circuit’s #7 Performance Score. The ‘What’s to like?’ is plus power potential and an above average speed combination, as Latimore put up 31 doubles and 19 home runs in 2010. His four professional seasons have been a steady progression that were buoyed this winter by an outstanding effort in the Australian Baseball League (yes we cover them all) where he posted a .997 OPS and the League’s #2 Performance Score. There is reason to believe that 2011 could see Latimore breakout in the ESL. While there are still plenty of questions surrounding him—a 24% strikeout rate, poor contact skills and limited defensive options among them—his upside is intriguing enough to place him ahead of a number of ‘non-descript’ prospects that comprise a large portion of the remainder of this list.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Colton Cain, LHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 63; Control 44; HRrate 45; Stamina 48)<br /><br />A highly projectable right hander, Cain was the Pirates 8th round pick in 2009, whom they signed to late first round money. 2010 saw Cain post the #4 Performance Score in the New York-Penn League (NYP), as he used a low-90s fastball to strike out nearly a batter per inning. The downside is that Cain’s secondary offerings remain raw and he doesn’t demonstrate excess pitchability. While there is significant upside, Cain is far from a finished product. Look for him to get his first taste of full-season ball to begin 2011 where there is considerable work to be done in developing his arsenal.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Starling Marte, OF</strong> (2010– Power 40; Discipline 36; First Base Rate 51; Speed 76)<br /><br />While Marte admittedly has ‘five-tool’ potential, it has yet to translate into anything resembling precocious performance. For that reason, we likely rate Marte slightly below most sources. He has not finished either of the last two seasons with Performance Scores in the top thirty of any league he has played in, and that just doesn’t bode well. Still the Pirates love his speed, contact skills, plus center field defense and upside, so he will get many chances to succeed. We look at that 25% strikeout rate and under developed power and question where the path exists for success to occur. In our opinion, it will be his defense that will have to carry him. Marte will begin 2011 in AA and will likely show no reason to promote him, but it may not matter.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Chase D’ Arnaud, SS</strong> (2010– Power 40; Discipline 58; First Base Rate 43; Speed 80)<br /><br />D’Arnaud’s ‘renaissance’ skill set—does everything fairly well but nothing spectacular—caught up with him in 2010, as ESL pitchers held him to a .247 average and his lowest OPS as a professional. D’Arnaud has plus speed and above average skills as a middle infielder. Unfortunately, that is not a combination that is likely to get him a full time ‘gig’ at the next level. Any way that you examine it, D’Arnuad’s has the classic utility infielder profile—and one with limited offensive potential at that. Expect D’Arnaud to return to the ESL to begin 2011. He will turn 24yo next week and appears to be at least a year away—another strike against him.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Josh Harrison, 2B</strong> (2010– Power 36; Discipline 78; First Base Rate 57; Speed 76)<br /><br />In Harrison, you have D’Arnuad with slightly lesser speed and lesser defense—although his hit tool is perhaps a notch better. While there isn’t significant upside here either, his profile suggests enough to make a Tony Graffanino type career a possibility. While he should return to the ESL in 2011, we won’t be surprised to see the Pirates move him to AAA. In either case, it is likely a make or break year for Harrison.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Bryan Morris, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 60; Control 64; HRrate 65; Stamina 68)<br /><br />Health has been Morris’ biggest downfall since the Dodgers made him a first round pick in 2006. 2010 saw Morris exceed 100 innings in a season for the first time in his career, as he posted Top 30 Performance Scores in both the FSL and ESL. Morris possesses a low-90s fastball that has at times shown a few notches higher. He compliments it with a curve and slider, both of which look to be Big League offerings. His change is his biggest downfall—something that is reason enough to wonder whether he might be better suited for a relief role. For now, the Pirates will start Morris out in the rotation at AAA in 2011. Our guess is that he will get a Big League opportunity at some point during the year—the degree of success is the bigger question.<br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 33; Control 68; HRrate 43; Stamina 68)<br /><br />Von Rosenberg’s 6’5”, 205 lb frame likely draws as much attention as his pure ‘stuff’ does, as Scouts love his projectability. Where they have problems is in a fastball that is a high-80s offering. If he can add a few mph to it, Von Rosenberg has the potential to develop into a #2/#3 starter. Where we have problems is envisioning a pitcher that is already fairly polished, with a potentially Big League average curve and change, suddenly finding that added velocity. That said, he did post the #11 Performance Score in the NYP in 2010, the command rates a plus and we aren’t willing to overlook the projectability. Look for Von Rosenberg to get his first taste of full-season ball in 2011 in what may be a tremendous West Virginia rotation with Taillon, Allie and Cain.<br /><br /><br /> <br /><br /><strong>Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</strong> – 13) <strong>Jeff Locke, LHP</strong>.</div><div> </div><div><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2010 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2010 season.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-21294994387258403082011-01-18T14:39:00.003-06:002011-01-19T06:49:25.834-06:00Team #23 - Los Angeles Dodgers<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGZ4DggVitg-xzF57sDry2G54PTiw8phONz14F7C9LcsS0wh_nC6mXLbYX-flRvZsYFZ1qAoTxMURf-4CNM-nSDjEVi3FuiYAJFx9Rve54pGBZBWOH6_dZTqgIiHwK8z_1RRbL4SAlUI0d/s1600/Zach+Lee+Football.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 240px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 210px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5563628632172638642" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGZ4DggVitg-xzF57sDry2G54PTiw8phONz14F7C9LcsS0wh_nC6mXLbYX-flRvZsYFZ1qAoTxMURf-4CNM-nSDjEVi3FuiYAJFx9Rve54pGBZBWOH6_dZTqgIiHwK8z_1RRbL4SAlUI0d/s400/Zach+Lee+Football.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:78%;">The Dodgers are hoping that LSU's loss will be their gain</span></div><br /><br /><br />The Dodgers are by far the most difficult organization to grade/rank this year. While there is a lot of talent in the system, nearly every prospect comes with significant question marks that reduce the certainty side of the equation. That leads to a system where any of more than twenty prospects could make an argument to be included in the system’s top ten. This isn’t born so much out of strength as it is the uncertainty. Even choosing the #1 prospect was difficult, as we could make a solid case for any of our top three players. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t things to like, as the system is extremely deep through the ‘B’ Grade. There is a nice mix between high ceiling and high floor type players and a nice mix between players ready to contribute soon and players a few years away. Finally, there is tremendous depth among right-handed hurlers.<br /><br />But there are also significant areas of concern. The Dodgers were once the biggest spender on the Latin American front, but haven’t signed a player of significance since 2008. The system had the reputation of working magic in their development of high school pitchers, but since Chad Billingsley in 2003, the Dodgers have taken pitchers in either the first or second round on twelve occasions and thus far have only Kershaw to show for it. Too many likely relief pitchers make up the upper tier of the organization’s prospects. Finally, a system that used to produce multi-tooled, high-ceiling, positional players like Matt Kemp, Carlos Santana and Josh Bell suddenly finds itself dotted with more of the Jerry Sands and Brian Cavazos-Galvez’s of the world. An honest appraisal of the system finds a lot of runners-up, but not many beauty contest winners. Our guess is that it won’t be long before Ned Colletti’s performance starts to attract the heat because this doesn’t appear to be a system on the upswing as the Dodgers’ rankings have fallen considerably over the last few seasons (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/team-17-los-angeles-dodgers.html">TEAM #17 – Los Angeles Dodgers</a>).<br /><br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – Our best thing about our 2010 Dodger picks, is likely the continued note of caution that we have consistently sounded for two seasons now about Dee Gordon. We like him, we just find more warts than others do. We were pretty accurate in our 2010 write-up on Gordon, which bucked conventional wisdom at the time. Otherwise look at Jerry Sands at #18, which was higher than most last year or Jonathan Garcia who came in at #17.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – Take your pick…we have struggled with this organization for two years now, continually disappointed by the organization’s top talent. Chris Withrow at #1 and Scott Elbert at #3 both look really poor in retrospect.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A-</span><br /></strong><br />1) <strong>Zach Lee, RHP</strong> -<br /><br />Lee is anointed top prospect in the system somewhat by default over a relief pitcher and a middle infielder with extremely little power. But that shouldn’t take anything away from the very athletic Lee. At 6’4”, 190lbs he oozes projection, and lasted until late in the first round because the industry was convinced he was attending LSU. It took the fourth highest bonus of the draft to change his mind. Lee already throws a mid-90s fastball and possesses a plus slider that should play well in the lower levels. If, however, he is to remain front of the rotation material, he will have to work on his extremely raw change. Even if it never develops, his fastball/slider combo would make him a devastating back of the bullpen option. Because Lee was a two sport athlete in high school, his baseball skills are not tremendously polished. Usually with a prospect of Lee’s stature we would expect him to debut in full-season A-ball. In this case, the Dodgers may hold him back for a few weeks in extended spring training.<br /><br /><br />2) <strong>Kenley Jansen, RP</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Dominance 80; Control 24; HRrate 78; Stamina 27)<br /><br />Jansen converted from catcher late in 2009 and has been turning heads ever since. 2010 saw Jansen begin the year in AA with 12 innings of Minor League pitching experience and saw him end it by fanning 41 in 27 Major League innings. The meteoric rise is primarily due to a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and can be a high 90s offering. His slider has gone from non-existent to what is now a potentially plus pitch. The downside is that Jansen throws with tremendous effort and rarely seems to know what it will end up—as 15 walks accompanied those strikeouts. At 23yo, and given his rawness, there is every reason to believe that Jansen can become a significant back of the bullpen force. He will be given every opportunity to earn a spot in the Dodger bullpen this spring.<br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Dee Gordon, SS</strong> (2010– Power 27; Discipline 65; First Base Rate 51; Speed 79)<br /><br />Regular readers are familiar with the fact that we have been tugging on the reigns of excitement over Gordon for two seasons now, as the profile just doesn’t predict stardom. That said, there is enough of a ceiling here to remain very interested. After a 2010 campaign in which Gordon skipped over Hi-A and posted the #23 Performance Score in the Southern League (SOL), Gordon went to Puerto Rico and put up solid numbers for 22yo. First the positives…Gordon has game changing speed that could eventually be a disruptive force at the top of the order. He shows above average plate discipline and solid contact skills. Defensively he covers a lot of ground and possesses a strong arm. The negatives lie in his size and location on the development curve. At 5’11”, 150lbs and turning 23yo during the first month of the season, there isn’t a ton of additional offensive projection. If he were to be able to bulk up and get to even a slightly below average power level it would likely come at the expense of his speed. We are talking about a player with 7 career home runs in more than 1600 PA’s (and only 50 doubles). That is a Juan Pierre like offensive profile. Don’t get us wrong, Gordon will very likely get a Major League shot—perhaps even sometime in 2011, but we don’t expect a lot with the bat.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+</span></strong><br /><br /><br />4) <strong>Jerry Sands, 1B</strong> (2010– Power 80; Discipline 44; First Base Rate 58; Speed 58)<br /><br />The hardest part about evaluating Sands, has been the Dodgers reluctance to have him face age appropriate competition. We wrote in last year’s guide that we would love to see the Dodgers jump him to Hi-A to begin 2010. But alas, as has been their wont, Sands began 2010 in the Midwest League (MWL) where he once again dominated inferior talent on his way to the League’s #6 Performance Score. Finally, in the second half things changed and Sands was skipped to the SOL where he was finally almost age appropriate. Sands posted the #5 Score there, before getting his most difficult challenge to date in the AZFL this fall. At least now we feel we can get a more accurate read on him. Sands is all about power—significant power. A surprisingly decent athlete, given his 6’4”, 225lb frame, Sands has the ability to create more value if he can prove that he can handle left field. With decent contact skills, his only weakness—outside of his position—is the propensity to chase breaking balls—something that was on display this fall. But he counteracts a 21% strikeout rate with reasonable plate patience. With the upside of a power hitting left fielder, Sands will finally be on everyone’s radar screen. The bat should be at least minimally playable as an everyday 1B/LF.<br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Jonathan Garcia, RF</strong> (2010– Power 74; Discipline 46; First Base Rate 37; Speed 50)<br /><br />While others are enamored with ‘toolsy’ Trayvon Robinson, Garcia is our ‘toolsy’ Dodger outfielder of interest. An 8th round steal in the 2009 draft, Garcia is ‘sculpted’ like a prototypical power-hitting right fielder. Plus power is his top skill, but defensively he has the range of a center fielder and the arm of a third baseman. After a solid 2009 rookie league debut, the Dodgers sent the 18yo to the Pioneer League (PIO), in 2010, where he became the circuit’s third youngest position player, posting the #3 Performance Score while there. His only weakness is his overly aggressive plate approach that led to him fanning in 23% of his PAs. We doubt many will regard Garcia this highly, but this is the type of profile that we look for when uncovering ‘hidden gems’. Expect Garcia to begin 2011 with his first taste of full-season ball and expect everyone else to be discussing him this time next year.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br /><br />6) <strong>Trayvon Robinson, OF</strong> (2010– Power 49; Discipline 30; First Base Rate 75; Speed 77)<br /><br />We truly wish we could get more excited about Robinson, but that nagging 25% strikeout rate that continues to increase just doesn’t allow it. It would be one thing to carry that type of offensive aggressiveness with you if you had plus power, but Robinson is a player that tops out at average power for even center field. Speed remains Robinson’s most potent weapon, although he makes solid contact and will take a walk—all of which should play well at the top of a batting order. Defensively, he plays a solid center field and should remain there. Robinson’s ‘tool set’ will get him an opportunity at the next level. For us, his lack of baseball instincts pose a problem and our expectation is that his weaknesses will be exploited by more advanced pitchers. Nonetheless, 2011 will find him in AAA to begin the year, with an appearance in Los Angeles at some point likely.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Chris Withrow, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 52; Control 32; HRrate 37; Stamina 66)<br /><br />After topping this list in 2010, Withrow began the season by not being able to locate the plate. This led to adjustments with his mechanics, that resulted in his once mid-90s fastball becoming barely a low-90s offering. The scene seems eerily reminiscent of former Giants’ prospect Tim Alderson. Before we go writing him off though, there are a couple of points to remember: 1) Withrow played 2010 as a 21yo in AA and 2) there appears to be little, physically, that should prevent him from returning to mechanics that had produced significant success prior to entering this season. There is too much talent here to give up, so just write off the 2010season and monitor Withrow closely this year. Hopefully the Dodgers will return him to the SOL to begin 2011.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Allen Webster, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 46; Control 48; HRrate 67; Stamina 71)<br /><br />Despite posting a top twenty Performance Score in the MWL during his 20yo season, Webster is a relatively low ceiling type of prospect. Lacking a true out-pitch, and possessing limited future projectability, Webster is unlikely to become much different from what we see right now. That said, what we see is an unbelievably polished product for a pitcher that was an 18th round draft pick and is only 20yo. Webster offers a low-90s fastball; that plays up due to his plus change. His curve is an average offering and he commands all of these pitches well enough to use them at any point. He wisely keeps the ball down—something that will likely further improve as he moves forward. All of it points to the makings of a solid #3/#4 Big League starter. While we aren’t overly enamored with Webster, his certainty scores appear to be high. Look for Webster to begin 2011 in Hi-A.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Rubby De La Rosa, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 50; Control 55; HRrate 69; Stamina 72)<br /><br />De La Rosa would rate higher if we believed in his ability to develop his secondary offerings enough to remain in the rotation. Though he possesses a ‘jumping’, mid-90s fastball—one that could be a high-90s offering in relief—his weak curve and non-existent change make it hard to project De La Rosa as anything other than a relief pitcher. If he can’t improve at least one of his secondary offerings, it is even difficult to imagine success in that role. That said, you can’t teach velocity and De La Rosa has that with some to spare. The 21yo used it to post the #4 Performance Score in the SOL in 2010, and he’ll likely get a chance to improve upon it in 2011 because he is almost certainly headed there for a return engagement to work on the secondary pitches. While we would be remiss to discount his ability to remain in the rotation completely, it doesn’t appear likely.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Ethan Martin, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 47; Control 21; HRrate 52; Stamina 63)<br /><br />Martin was a two-way player in high school, whom most industry observers believed was better suited for the mound and believed that the Dodgers were the ideal destination for him in which to successfully transition to a full-time starter. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone as drawn up. In 2010, all of his raw talents deserted him, and he appeared to be lost mechanically, as his 6.5 BB/ 9 IP was disastrous. The pure stuff still exists, and we are willing to write off the season and give him a mulligan. That said, 2011 becomes critical—as a repeat performance may leave the Dodgers considering a return to third base for him. Expect him to move up to AA so that he can cleanse his 2010 experience.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Garrett Gould, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 44; Control 50; HRrate 58; Stamina 66)<br /><br />We had higher expectations for Gould in 2010 than he was able to deliver on. That said, he did post the #4 Performance Score in the Pioneer League (PIO). At 6’4”, 190lbs, the ‘beefy’ Gould should still add a couple of ticks to his low-90s fastball. He combines that with a curve that is a potential plus offering. Ultimately, however, his success will be determined by the development of his change—as it remains a raw offering. Only 19yo, Gould has the upside of a #2 workhorse. We would like to see more progress when he moves to full-season ball in 2011 and should have a better read on him this time next year.<br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Ivan DeJesus, SS</strong> (2010– Power 34; Discipline 65; First Base Rate 38; Speed 62)<br /><br />DeJesus appeared poised to make his Big League debut in 2009, before a broken leg in spring training caused him to miss the bulk of the season. Coming back in 2010, DeJesus appeared to be a step slower defensively than his pre-injury level and offensively he never really got on track. While he didn’t light things up in the AZFL, this past fall, he did show enough for us to believe that 2011 will see a return to pre-injury form. While his speed and defense are merely average for the shortstop position, DeJesus’ plate discipline and ability to get on base are above average skills. Ideally, we can envision him as a solid Major League #2 hitter at either of the middle infield positions (above average offensively for the position). He may end up as merely a backup, but in either case, he appears destined to play at the next level. Look for him to return to AAA to begin 2011, but he is Big League ready.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</strong> –<br /><br />13) <strong>Aaron Miller, LHP</strong>; 14) <strong>Leon Landry, OF</strong>; 15) <strong>Scott Elbert, LHP</strong>; 16) <strong>Javier Solano, RHP</strong>; 17) <strong>Angelo Songco, OF</strong>.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-51574059536555343032011-01-13T14:25:00.003-06:002011-01-13T14:31:41.764-06:00TEAM #24 – Houston Astros<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF37PomcquVyO3pxJ-0ztpXipXtoy977Qb8zsu_lnQiaSZxlomOg19ojb2nbwiFKM7v1-rA5XzFEzfoBS4jJI4cSBOU3Xq0YeuUhki0nb9n8rTnqqwyXCwq55Gr3lysEr9_X8SRjXl_Qmu/s1600/Jordan_Lyles.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 275px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 235px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5561769370439037122" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF37PomcquVyO3pxJ-0ztpXipXtoy977Qb8zsu_lnQiaSZxlomOg19ojb2nbwiFKM7v1-rA5XzFEzfoBS4jJI4cSBOU3Xq0YeuUhki0nb9n8rTnqqwyXCwq55Gr3lysEr9_X8SRjXl_Qmu/s400/Jordan_Lyles.jpg" /></a><span style="font-size:78%;"> There is a huge gap between Lyles and the rest of the Astros Prospects</span></div><br /><br /><br />While coming in at #24 for a lot of teams would be considered a major disappointment, when you have been at the bottom for as long as the Astros have ( <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/team-27-houston-astros.html">TEAM #27 – Houston Astros</a> )#24 is cause for celebration. Let’s get the negatives out of the way first. The organization remains scarily thin at the top, as the gap between #1 and #2 is probably as big as just about any team in the league. Looking for a potential left-handed starter—not here. The Astros do not have a left-handed starting pitcher prospect in their Top 20. Additionally, we’ve spoken at length about the failed strategy of drafting raw, underdeveloped, ‘toolsy’ ‘athletes’ with an accent on speed. The Astros have rapidly replaced the Phillies as the poster child for this failed strategy. Not that DeShields was a horrible pick, but he was a significant overdraft at the #8 slot. <br /><br />Now to the positive, few teams, this decade, could match the draft futility experienced by the Astros under Gary Hunsicker/Tim Purpura (and Scouting Directors Paul Ricciarini and David Lakey). Save for 2004, second rounder, Hunter Pence, the draft record was abysmal. One need to look no further than here to find out why the Astros have been at the bottom of these rankings for so long. Mercifully, Ed Wade and Bobby Heck were brought in, in 2008, and have begun the long slow climb back to respectability. Their first pick, Jason Castro, made his Major League debut in 2010, and their second pick, Jordan Lyles, tops this year’s list. Don’t get us wrong, they haven’t completely turned things around yet, but the signs of progress are apparent in a multitude of areas. One of the most obvious of these is in their emphasis on Latin American talent, and they made the franchises’ most historic signing in this area when they inked Dominican Outfielder Ariel Ovando to a $2.55 million deal this summer. While the organization still lacks the quality ‘can’t miss’ ‘high-ceiling’ prospects at the top of the organization, there is a reasonable amount of depth throughout the rest of the system to provide cause for optimism. Expect the Astros to continue to climb these rankings for the next couple of seasons. <br /><br />Best Pick from 2010 – For us this was easy, as our selection of Altuve at #10 not only was ahead of the curve, but was dead-on accurate. More below on Altuve’s future, but the Lexington fans witnessed everything we predicted.<br /><br />Worst Pick from 2010 – Some people may say this should be our selection of Mier at #1, but we haven’t given up on him yet. The honor here goes to our selection of Chia-Jen Lo at #6, who was shut down at the end of April with an elbow injury. T.J. Steele at #11 was another serious consideration here, as he was badly exposed in the Texas League in 2010 and isn’t likely to show enough hit skills to play at the next level.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A<br /></span></strong><br />1) <strong>Jordan Lyles, RHP</strong> (2010 Performance Scores– Dominance 50; Control 63; HRrate 55; Stamina 74)<br /><br />The Astros blind-sided the baseball world when they selected Lyles with their sandwich round pick in 2008. They have been saying “I told you so” ever since. 2010 saw Lyles earn the Top Performance Score in the Texas League (TXL) and debut in AAA before his twentieth birthday. While Lyles lacks an overpowering fastball (his is a low-90s offering), he has a plus change and a solid curve—all of with which he demonstrates excellent command. While he is likely never going to be much more than a solid Major League #2/#3, he looks like a strong bet to get there. Lyles is still young and will likely get at least one-half season in AAA before the Astros consider bringing him to Houston. That said, it is likely that he debuts sometime in 2011.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong><br />2) <strong>Delino DeShields, OF</strong> (2010– Power 42; Discipline 37; First Base Rate 63; Speed 65)<br /><br />We weren’t surprised that someone would draft DeShields in the first round. In fact we were fairly certain that someone would—despite that we had him rated #40 on our board. But we have to admit to being more than a little surprised that he went off the board at #8. With a Big League pedigree and appearing on the scouting radar since junior high, DeShields was perhaps the most athletic prep player considered in the first three rounds. Speed is his major asset, although he makes decent contact and projects to have potentially average power. Defensively, he makes up for marginal fundamentals with his blazing speed that provides him with excellent range. Not prototypical for either, he should be playable in either center field or second base. His father makes a very solid comp for him. While there are those that will likely try to convince you that his ceiling is higher, DeShields is unlikely to ever possess the hit tool that will make him more than an average hitter with excellent speed. He could develop into a true top of the order offensive catalyst, but the likelihood is something short of that. Look for DeShields to begin 2011 in the South Atlantic League (SAL).<br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Jio Mier, SS</strong> (2010– Power 37; Discipline 54; First Base Rate 64; Speed 62)<br /><br />After a blistering Appalachian League debut after being drafted in 2009, Mier didn’t quite live up to expectations in his full-season debut in 2010, posting a top thirty Performance Score in the SAL—a few notches below, now teammate, Jonathan Villar. There are many in the organization that prefer Villar to Mier, which should create an interesting dynamic. We are not among those. Mier played the 2010 season as a 19yo in full-season ball and held his own. He shows excellent plate discipline skills, good contact skills and average speed for the shortstop position. Defensively, although he struggled a bit in 2010, he has plus defender skills. We are encouraged by the upward projectability in his power tool, as his 6’2” frame should carry 25lbs more than he ended the season at. The Astros will have to figure out a way to separate Villar and Mier to get them both regular playing time. Judging by 2010, this may mean Mier returns to the SAL or that Villar plays at AA. We would take the conservative path and allow both players to taste a fair amount of success, but it will be interesting to see how the Astros handle it.<br /><br /><br />4) <strong>Austin Wates, OF</strong> (2010– Power 68; Discipline 69; First Base Rate 79; Speed 79)<br /><br />We actually had Wates graded within five spots of DeShields prior to the draft, and the Astros were able to wait until the third round to grab him. Another in the athletic mold, Wates scores much higher than DeShields on the certainty scale. For us, Wates is a true center fielder that has plus speed, solid contact skills, good plate discipline and average power. He closed his collegiate career by posting a Top 25 Performance Score last spring. While we don’t expect him to be a superstar, his ceiling is that of an above average offensive center fielder. Wates is already fairly polished and was obviously more advanced than his competition in his brief New York-Penn (NYP) debut. For that reason, we expect Wates to begin 2011 in the California (CAL) League. It would not surprise us to see him in Houston sometime in 2012.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br />5) <strong>Michael Foltynewicz, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 44; Control 44; HRrate 52; Stamina 55)<br /><br />We had Foltynewicz projected as a sandwich round selection, prior to this past June’s draft. The Astros instead selected him with their second first round pick (19th overall). At 6’4”, Foltnewicz has additional projection left on a fastball that is already a low- to mid-90s offering. With a plus change already in his arsenal, the Astros see him as being only a solid breaking ball away from front of the rotation potential. The Astros felt strongly enough to debut him in the Appalachian League after signing last summer. He was able to make twelve starts and posted the League’s #10 Performance Score. Although he struggled in his first couple of professional outings, in his final nine starts he posted a 3.15 ERA with a 36:10 K:BB ratio over 40 innings. Look for Foltynewicz to begin 2011 in the SAL.<br /><br /><br />6) <strong>Ariel Ovando, RF –<br /></strong><br />We had Ovando rated as the #7 Latin American 16yo prior to the July signing date. We were a bit surprised that the Astros aggressively went after him with a bonus that was topped only, thus far, by Seattle’s signing of Peguero and Toronto’s signing of Cardona. That said, Ovando has an advanced bat, with excellent power. Defensively, he projects to be an adequate right fielder as his 6’4” frame fills out. The organization was impressed with his performance in instructional league and will likely start him in the Gulf Coast League, in 2011, after extended Spring Training. There is a huge ceiling here—perhaps the tops of any position player in the system, but it is likely quite a few years before attaining it.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Jose Altuve, 2B</strong> (2010– Power 60; Discipline 74; First Base Rate 65; Speed 69)<br /><br />As much as we have been leading the Altuve band wagon for the last couple of season’s now, it is important to frame him in the proper perspective. Our projection methods utilize a comparative player methodology. Altuve stands all of 5’5”, 148lbs. During the last 60 years only three players under 5’6” have accumulated 200 or more Major League At Bats, and only Freddie Patek had a distinguished career. None of the diminutive players, or players that possess in a reasonably similar phenotype, in our extensive database has ever posted the #1, #3, #2, #3 and #6 Performance Scores that Altuve has over the last four seasons. My point is that we are operating in uncharted territory here when it comes to projecting Altuve. None of his skills, excepting phenomenal strike zone management skills rate above average. Although he has consistently posted mid .400 SLG numbers throughout his career, there is little reason to believe that he can generate much in the way of power at the Major League level. That said, in 2011 we can have a serious conversation about what he will be capable of producing at the Major League level, whereas we were laughed at when we brought him to people’s attention in 2009. The scouting community will root for him to fail, as they have been adamant in their belief that he can’t succeed. We don’t know, but we wouldn’t bet against him. Our best guess is that Altuve ends up becoming the 4th player under 5’6” to accumulate 200 At Bats, as he knocks around for a few seasons as a utility infielder. He’ll begin 2011 back in the California League, but will likely see AA by mid-season.<br /><br /> <br />8) <strong> J.D. Martinez, OF</strong> (2010– Power 65; Discipline 61; First Base Rate 71; Speed 42)<br /><br />We aren’t as high on the 2010 SAL MVP as some, as he has posted some gaudy numbers since being a late round selection in 2009, but has only managed Performance Scores of #17, #11 and #39. We tend to discount the numbers that a nearly 23yo puts up in lo-A ball and believe what we witnessed in the TXL last summer is probably closer to reality. If it sounds like we are Martinez bashing—think again. There is probably 15-20 homerun potential with a .340 OBP here. Our concern is that Martinez is likely to be stuck as an outfield corner—more unfortunately in left field. This makes him, at best, a below average everyday player. While that may be good value for a 20th round draft pick, it isn’t the type of talent that will turn the organization around. Look for Martinez to return to the TXL to begin the 2011 season. A strong showing could earn him a September call-up.<br /><br /> <br />9) <strong> Jonathan Villar, SS</strong> (2010– Power 38; Discipline 26; First Base Rate 48; Speed 75)<br /><br />Villar is another player that the organization appears to be higher on then we are, as they have seemingly vaulted him past Mier in the system’s depth chart. That is likely due to that whole ‘toolsy’, ‘athletic’ thing that we described earlier. Speed is his only above average offensive skill, but it is of the plus-plus variety. Defensively, he is fundamentally raw, but he has a cannon for an arm that makes up for a lot of mistakes. In time he could develop into a plus-plus shortstop defender. On the downside, his power is nearly non-existent and isn’t likely to develop much. He has never met a pitch he doesn’t like and fans more than 28% of the time (way too much given his lack of power). Of his hit skills, only contact looks to be an average skill. This has produced Performance Scores of #36, #16, #21 and #38 in his four professional stops. Don’t get us wrong, it isn’t that Villar is without tremendous ceiling, it is just that the probabilities for players with his profile are not strong. As we described earlier, the Astros have a bit of a dilemma with Villar and Mier being at similar developmental stages. They will have to be separated and Villar is likely to be given the more advanced assignment. For his sake, our hope is that it is in a return trip to the CAL, as TXL pitchers will feast on him.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Jimmy Paredes, 2B</strong> (2010– Power 53; Discipline 61; First Base Rate 47; Speed 80)<br /><br />Although Paredes likely ranks higher here than on most lists, we would have liked to rank him higher but can’t seem to figure out his defensive destination. Paredes was the key acquisition in the deal that sent Berkman to the Yankees. He followed up the 2009 season where he posted the #16 Performance Score in the NYP, with a top forty score in the SAL in 2010. Like Villar above, Paredes is a ‘toolsy’, ‘athletic’ prospect with plus-plus speed. Paredes possesses more raw power and raw speed, as well as better plate discipline, than does Villar. Unlike Villar, we aren’t quite sure with what to do with him defensively. Paredes possesses the arm and quickness to play either of the left-side positions in the infield. However, his footwork is fundamentally flawed, and his raw approach leads to significant mental lapses. Currently he is playing second base, but if he can’t get the defense figured out he may have to move to the outfield—resulting in a significant downgrade. The Astros are seemingly loaded with this prospect profile—for better or for worse. Look for Paredes to join either Villar or Mier in the CAL in 2011.<br /><br />11) <strong>Tanner Bushue, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 45; Control 46; HRrate 21; Stamina 72)<br /><br />Consider him to be a slightly lesser version of Foltynewicz—right down to his Illinois roots. Bushue was the Astros second round pick in 2009, a two sport athlete in high school. With a solid projectable 6’4” frame, Bushue has a 90mph fastball that could become a low-90s offering in time. Bushue is the more athletic of the two, and also possesses the better secondary offerings. He managed to post a Top 20 Performance Score in the SAL in 2010. The downside…Bushue’s fastball regressed a bit in 2010 from his prep days. More concerning is Bushue’s tendency to pitch up in the zone, which yielded a 0.79 GO/AO ratio in 2010. From a ceiling standpoint, he appears to be little more than #3/#4 starter potential—possibly less. The Astros have skipped some of the better arms over the CAL in the past. We don’t believe that Bushue is polished enough to make the jump to AA, so expect him to have a difficult challenge at Lexington in 2011.<br /><br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Telvin Nash, LF/1B</strong> (2010– Power 79; Discipline 26; First Base Rate 49; Speed 33)<br /><br />As we wrote last year about Nash, he is a one-tool guy, but that tool is exceptional raw power. Nash demonstrated that in 2010, as he posted a .531 SLG while belting 13 HRs in just over 200 At Bats, propelling him to the #9 Performance Score in the APY. Nash possesses decent contact skills and near base-clogging speed. However, success or failure for prospects like Nash is often determined by their ability to manage the strike zone. While Nash will take the occasional walk, his 30% strikeout rate is cause for concern. The Astros have been trying Nash in LF. We don’t believe his defense will allow him to be anything more than a first baseman, so his bat will have to carry him. The profile is full of down-side risk, but the ceiling here is substantial. Expect Nash to get his first taste of full season ball in 2011. <br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><strong>Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</strong> – None.<br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-13535310744386426952011-01-11T19:49:00.003-06:002011-01-12T12:52:58.210-06:00TEAM #25 – Detroit Tigers<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpyH-RTwcSnEISfhgINHBx0GFnRpQeWI8zWChUKo7dVTu5oeVDBMBynm94wS2K2WUCejTnw-g3_jnQbfJr0T2rXvfNS5UNhbAlPuqU5I5wBhVrnFyD1q4JcmIHsC8e_kReOopKY8fHtqDX/s1600/Jacob+Turner1.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 207px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 179px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5561110868608012578" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpyH-RTwcSnEISfhgINHBx0GFnRpQeWI8zWChUKo7dVTu5oeVDBMBynm94wS2K2WUCejTnw-g3_jnQbfJr0T2rXvfNS5UNhbAlPuqU5I5wBhVrnFyD1q4JcmIHsC8e_kReOopKY8fHtqDX/s400/Jacob+Turner1.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:85%;">Turner is an easy choice as the Tigers #1</span></div><br /><br /><br />Seven of the Tigers’ top twelve prospects were signed since June of 2009. That gives you an idea of how bare the cupboard had been prior to then. While the Tigers are inching their way up (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/team-28-detroit-tigers.html">TEAM #28 – Detroit Tigers</a>), having 2010’s #2 prospect, Casey Crosby, miss virtually the entire season due to injury hasn’t allowed any major improvements over last year. While the top of the Tigers’ list is relatively league average to slightly below through the ‘B’ grades, it thins out considerably in the area where we typically hope to find growth/development for next year—meaning the Tigers likely remain two years away from seeing tremendous improvement from their bottom third placement over the last few years. But there are some positive signs. Start with the very aggressive signing of Venezuelan slugger Danry Vazquez that hopefully signals a resurgence in Latin American player development. For years, the Tigers have worked Venezuela as hard as anyone, but their international yield from 2008 and 2009 was virtually non-existent. The Vazquez signing should be a signal that the Tigers intend to remain a major force in the region. Perhaps the Tigers' biggest offseason move was adding Eddie Bane to their scouting staff. Bane had tremendous success with the Angels--prior to his surprising dismissal. Another important signal that things may be looking upward is that in the 2010 list more than 20% of their top thirty prospects were relief pitchers. In this year’s list that number has dropped to under 15% and only one of the top twelve. That said, with Oliver, Schlereth and Weinhardt all appearing to be ready to contribute in 2011, the Tigers should have one of the deeper pitching staffs in the American League.<br /><br />Once you get past Turner and Castellanos, the Tigers don’t have much in the way of potential stars on this list, but there is an intriguing mix of players in the Brennan Boesch, ‘low-ceiling’, mold (especially pitchers) that should contribute at the next level and players like Francisco Martinez/Avisail Garcia who have the potential to take significant leaps forward with minor improvements to the game. It should provide optimism that at least the arrow is pointing in the right direction.<br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – These two categories are difficult because our list didn’t vary much from industry consensus for the Tigers. We did have Brennan Boesch rated higher than most at #15—although he probably should have been higher still, so we will go with our selection of Avisail Garcia at #12—who is likely to be in everyone’s Tiger Top 10 this year.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – Not that we were alone but, not having Francisco Martinez in our Tiger Top 50 was a big miss. Rarely does a player come from that far off of our radar and jump into the following year’s Top 5.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A<br /></span></strong><br />1) <strong>Jacob Turner, RHP</strong> (2010 Performance Scores– Dominance 52; Control 70; HRrate 52; Stamina 67)<br /><br />For us, Turner was unquestionably the top prep right-hander available in the 2009 draft, so the fact that he was only the third one chosen on draft day should have the Tigers feeling pretty good that he was still available when their pick came up at #9. That said, because of our lofty expectations, his 8.0 K/9 IP through two stops in full-season leagues—as a 19yo—almost felt like a disappointment. It shouldn’t, as Turner earned the #2 Performance Score with his 10 starts in the Midwest League (MWL) and the #3 Performance Score in 13 Florida State League (FSL) starts and remains one of the top pitching prospects in the Minors. With a powerful 6’5”, 210 lb frame; a heavy, mid-90s fastball; a potentially plus curve; and advanced repertoire control; Turner possesses all the ingredients to be a significant top of the rotation force for years. While power, prep right-handers are not the safest of bets, Turner appears to be a special one. The Tigers are likely to return Turner to the FSL for a few starts before moving him up to AA—possibly before he turns 20yo. As the Tigers have demonstrated with Rick Porcello, they are not afraid to be aggressive with young pitchers. We don’t expect to see him in Detroit before mid-2012, but we will be surprised if it is much after that.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A-<br /></span></strong><br /><br />2) <strong>Nick Castellanos, 3B</strong> –<br /><br />We had Castellanos as a mid-first round selection this past June, so getting him in the sandwich round is a bit of a steal for the Tigers—if you can call $3.45 million (the 5th highest 2010 draft bonus) a steal. Castellanos possesses plus power, solid contact skills and average speed. Defensively, he was a shortstop in high school who should have little problems moving to third—although he will likely never be more than an average defender. If there is a weakness, it is that his swing can get a bit long, creating the possibilty that he will be vulnerable to better pitching as he progresses. Castellanos is headed for the MWL in 2011. His ceiling is that of an above average offensive everyday third baseman—although it is likely to be a few years before he realizes it.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong><br />3) <strong>Andrew Oliver, LHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 60; Control 44; HRrate 47; Stamina 72)<br /><br />With his disputes with the NCAA a thing of the past, Oliver had a chance to focus purely on baseball in 2010. The results were a #14 Performance Score in the ESL for the 23yo. Oliver held his low- to mid-90s velocity deep into games, and had a chance to work on his underdeveloped secondary offerings. While not an eye-opening display, it certainly was enough to convince the Tigers that he belongs in the rotation instead of the bullpen, and that is where he will likely be in AAA in 2011. While a solid mid-rotation starter is his upside, we still have concerns as to how effective he will be in the rotation and don’t rule out an eventual bull pen role. Oliver still needs work on the secondary offerings, so we don’t expect to see him in Detroit until later this summer.<br /><br /><br />4) <strong>Francisco Martinez, 3B</strong> (2010– Power 39; Discipline 55; First Base Rate 56; Speed 64)<br /><br />Every year there are a handful of players that totally catch you off guard. Martinez was one of those for us this year, as, despite a Top 10 Performance Score in the VSL in 2008, few players have succeeded from his 40th ranked score in the GCL and that placed him outside of our ‘C’ grade range in 2009. Shame on us. Playing the entire season as a 19yo, Martinez moved from the GCL where he posted a .576 OPS to the FSL where he flirted with a .700 OPS for much of the year. The result was the circuit’s #8 Performance Score. Don’t mistake us, Martinez still doesn’t possess the power that you would like to find in a third baseman, but he has solid plate discipline, above average contact skills and above average speed. Defensively he has the requisite tools, but is fundamentally extremely raw. In an organization that weakens considerably at this point, Martinez is a high-ceiling type that could eventually be an above average offensive third baseman. While the Tigers may be tempted to move Martinez to Erie to open up the 2011 season, we hope they show a bit more patience as Martinez needs at least one-half season to catch his breath.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br />5) <strong>Casey Crosby, LHP</strong> –<br /><br />Crosby was our #2 ranked prospect on last year’s Tiger’s list, but made just three starts in 2010, as he battled elbow pain most of the season. It becomes a bigger concern when considering he has thrown just 121 innings since being drafted in 2007. We could spend some space describing what Crosby looks like when things are right, but we did that in last year’s edition and quite frankly we no longer know what ‘right’ is going to look like with Crosby. His upside is too significant to dismiss, but 2011 will be a critical year for the now 23yo.<br /><br /><br />6) <strong>Daniel Fields, OF</strong> (2010– Power 53; Discipline 25; First Base Rate 61; Speed 40)<br /><br />The Tigers drafted Fields in the 6th round of the 2009 draft and then proceeded to sign him to mid-first round money. As has been their want recently with high draft choices, the Tigers made his 2010 assignment a challenging one, sending the 19yo to the FSL where he finished with the circuit’s #17 Performance Score. A gifted athlete, Fields has plus power with average speed and contact skills. Defensively, Fields is a converted shortstop who showed promise in center field at Lakeland. On the downside, Fields lacks patience at the plate, fanning 28% of the time—a number that will have to come down as he develops. Although he had over 400 PAs in the FSL in 2010, Fields should return there to begin the 2011 season. Like Francisco Martinez above, there is a significant ceiling with Fields; but much work remains if he is to reach it.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Avisail Garcia, RF</strong> (2010– Power 31; Discipline 53; First Base Rate 53; Speed 78)<br /><br />Garcia is one of the organization’s few true potential five-tool prospects. We became interested in Garcia after his 2008 debut in the Venezuelan Summer League where he earned the circuit’s #3 Performance Score . A solid 2009 performance in the MWL earned him the #12 place on last year’s Tiger’s prospect list. A return trip to the MWL in 2010 resulted in a Top 20 Performance Score. Still, Garcia has yet to tap into his enormous potential. With plus speed, Garcia uses an attacking style at the plate where he puts punishing strokes on the ball. While his power has yet to show itself, given his stroke and his 6’4”, 225lb, frame there is little reason to doubt that it won’t come in time. While Garcia lacks the patience to take many walks, the 19yo’s strikeout rate in 2010 was only 22%--an amazing number if you witness his swings. Garcia may possess the highest ceiling of any position player in the system. But, it isn’t all positive, as his overaggressive approach frequently results in fundamental mistakes. In time, providing things go right, he could develop into a massive offensive right fielder. The Tigers will send him to the FSL in 2011 and it wouldn’t surprise us if he takes a substantial leap forward. However, as a baseball player, Garcia remains extremely raw.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Chance Ruffin, RHP</strong> -<br /><br />We had Ruffin tabbed as a second round pick this past June, but the Tigers took a ‘Chance’ picking him in the sandwich round (okay…you weren’t expecting good comedy for this price…were you?) After two seasons, where he performed reasonably well in the Longhorn rotation, Ruffin became their closer this season and made a significant leap forward. Coming out of the pen, his fringe-average fastball became a solid offering; but it his slider that is his swing and miss pitch. With developable pitches in both his curve and change, we wouldn’t be giving up on Ruffin as a starter. We have expressed many times the downgrade that is experienced converting to a purely bullpen arm while in the Minors. Unfortunately, the current plan is to keep Ruffin in the bullpen. While we could envision Ruffin as a potentially solid #3/#4 starter, we don’t expect much more than a setup- type reliever if the Tigers continue with the current plan. His AZFL appearance this fall was solid, so we expect Ruffin to debut in 2011 in the ESL. He could be in Detroit before the season’s end.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Daniel Schlereth, LHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 74; Control 21; HRrate 78; Stamina 28)<br /><br />Schlereth continues to possess a devastating fastball/curve combination and continues to lack the command of it that would make it possible to realize success with it. While there exists little doubt that he will get an opportunity, there is considerable doubt as to whether he reaches his ceiling as a lights out closer, or is relegated to an 8th inning setup role. A BB/9IP ratio of nearly 6.0 doesn’t make it appear that the closer role will be his anytime soon. Schlereth will have every opportunity and expectation to be a part of the Tiger bullpen when they break camp this spring.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Drew Smyly, LHP</strong> –<br /><br />We had Smyly as an early third round pick prior to Detroit’s making him their second round pick this past June—where they paid him first round money. There is little to love and very little to hate with him. While his fastball is a fringe-average offering, he commands well a four pitch repertoire. With advanced pitchability, the 21yo could move through the system rapidly. However, if he does, the Tigers are unlikely to get more than a solid #3/#4 starter. With a similar upside as Ruffin, the difference between them lies in Ruffin’s plus-plus slider. Look for Smyly to open the 2011 season in the FSL.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Josue Carreno, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 49; Control 30; HRrate 36; Stamina 68)<br /><br />Carreno came into the 2010 season on the heels of #2 and #4 Performance Scores in consecutive VSL seasons. He topped that by posting the #3 score in the New York-Penn League in his stateside debut. Only 19yo, Carreno has a low 90s fastball to go with a solid curve and developing change. His 6’1”, 170lb, frame still possesses some projection. The downside is that Carreno struggles with command at times, and has a tendency to leave the ball up in the zone more than we would like. This appears to be a control issue, however, as he does induce a significant number of ground outs. Carreno’s ceiling is that of a solid mid-rotation starter. He will take his game to full-season ball in 2011 where we would expect him to garner more attention than he has thus far.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B-<br /></span></strong><br />12) <strong>Danry Vazquez, RF</strong> -<br /><br />One of the more advanced hitters to come out of Latin America this summer, Vazquez possesses a powerful 6’2, 170lb, build that should project to plus power. With solid speed and a good arm, the Tigers hope that Vazquez will be able to play RF. He already possesses solid contact skills that allow him to hit with authority to all fields. While still possessing a relatively aggressive plate approach, he shows better plate discipline than the typical Latin American 16yo. While most of the Tiger’s signings out of Venezuela have played at least one summer in the VSL, it will be interesting to see if Vazquez debuts in the GCL. A huge upside here, but tremendously far off.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Other Potential Top 300 Prospects</strong> – None<br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-83237024640864098242011-01-11T13:55:00.005-06:002011-01-11T14:36:47.744-06:00How Much Can We Tell From Latin American League Performance<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIz__rKjk6SC_dgWydtzEoFwxPwgpCqeNy3hAqRZPuOUYXR_m5viyQ8zMVAbO1OEqqeD0MYlBT4wVf9ksYvO0uG3MG96OQPhFyMGdV9a0rSWpUcRPEtsa9UYzsTXY8EWYa2w3y8uLp4Xey/s1600/question+mark.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 200px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 252px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5561019702708909042" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIz__rKjk6SC_dgWydtzEoFwxPwgpCqeNy3hAqRZPuOUYXR_m5viyQ8zMVAbO1OEqqeD0MYlBT4wVf9ksYvO0uG3MG96OQPhFyMGdV9a0rSWpUcRPEtsa9UYzsTXY8EWYa2w3y8uLp4Xey/s400/question+mark.jpg" /></a><br /><div></div><div></div><div>As we have been working ahead to finish the eGuide, there were a couple of overall ranking placements that will likely draw significant criticism because of the player’s limited ‘stateside’ experience—particularly a couple of players with only Dominican Summer League experience—don’t worry they are still a few teams away. As we have repeatedly mentioned, our key statistic comparative player methodology translates well to the Latin American Leagues—providing you know what you are looking for. This wasn’t as big an issue in our 2010 Prospect eGuide, as the highest ranking players from the Latin American summer Leagues were Hector Guevara at #299 from the VSL and the Rockies’ Alving Mejias, who checked in at #349. But this year will see at least two prospects from the region rank considerably higher. As a bit of reference framing, we decided to post our top five hitting prospects and top five pitching prospects from the Dominican Summer League (DSL), for each of the last four seasons. None of these DSL players were previously graded as high as the 2011 DSL Top prospect, and only three previous players received a grade as high as a ‘B’ (Jhoulys Chacin-2007; Abraham Almonte-2007; Adrian Salcedo-2009). Most of these players were 16yo – 18yo when they were graded. Keep all of this in mind when we talk about the players from the DSL in the 2011 guide.</div><div><br /><br /><strong>2010 Top 5 DSL Hitting Prospects<br /></strong>1) Yeicock Calderon, NYY<br />2) Eric Avila, PIT<br />3) Rafael Ortega, COL<br />4) Jesus Aguilar, CLE<br />5) Juan Silverio, CHA<br /><br /><strong>2010 Top 5 DSL Pitching Prospects<br /></strong>1) Alving Mejias, COL<br />2) Andy Otero, ATL<br />3) Felix Cespedes, PHI<br />4) Miguel De Los Santos, TEX<br />5) Lisaverto Bonilla, PHI</div><div><br /><br /><strong>2009 Top 5 DSL Hitting Prospects<br /></strong>1) Eduardo Sosa, NYY<br />2) Miguel Gonzalez, CHA<br />3) Eury Perez, WSN<br />4) Kelvin DeLeon, NYY<br />5) Tomas Telis, TEX<br /><br /><strong>2009 Top 5 DSL Pitching Prospects<br /></strong>1) Adrian Salcedo, MIN<br />2) Fabio Martinez-Mesa, LAA<br />3) Rayni Guichardo, DET<br />4) Juan Oramas, SDP<br />5) Baudilo Lopez, LAA</div><div><br /><br /><strong>2008 Top 5 DSL Hitting Prospects<br /></strong>1) Sebastian Valle, PHI<br />2) Starlin Castro, CHN<br />3) Alexi Amarista, LAA<br />4) Jean Segura, LAA<br />5) Edison Rincon, SDP<br /><br /><strong>2008 Top 5 DSL Pitching Prospects<br /></strong>1) Wilfredo Boscan, TEX<br />2) Randall Delgado, ATL<br />3) Dimaster Delgado, ATL<br />4) Matire Garcia, MIN<br />5) Juan Oramas, SDP</div><div><br /><br /><strong>2007 Top 5 DSL Hitting Prospects<br /></strong>1) Abraham Almonte, NYY<br />2) Kelvin Diaz, CLE<br />3) Moises Sierra, TOR<br />4) Yamico Navarro, BOS<br />5) Juan Ligares, NYM<br /><br /><strong>2007 Top 5 DSL Pitching Prospects<br /></strong>1) Jhoulys Chacin, COL<br />2) Joel Carreno, TOR<br />3) Simon Castro, SDP<br />4) Ariel Alcantara, SEA<br />5) Luis Marte, DET</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-18071212502603679392011-01-10T11:15:00.005-06:002011-01-10T19:07:55.858-06:00TEAM #26 – San Francisco Giants<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtvlpa-Rs29z6ypIxu2qrAbESgwUAQHm-4ovNmTr_XBjIdYdIVlxXHUIEEIEcxu8BkuBRKuP0i2nOTXjnGWalVMHs6mukWYn65Iku5Ts_Hy0i46nv70n3-nmRd50Kyie08UaNL4bsXXVQF/s1600/Brandon+Belt.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 225px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5560607105799925778" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtvlpa-Rs29z6ypIxu2qrAbESgwUAQHm-4ovNmTr_XBjIdYdIVlxXHUIEEIEcxu8BkuBRKuP0i2nOTXjnGWalVMHs6mukWYn65Iku5Ts_Hy0i46nv70n3-nmRd50Kyie08UaNL4bsXXVQF/s400/Brandon+Belt.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:85%;">Brandon Belt was one of 2010’s biggest risers</span> <div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></div><div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></div><div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></div><div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><div align="left">The Giants are a system that ranks quite a bit below last season (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/team-9-san-francisco-giants.html">TEAM #9 – San Francisco Giants</a>), due to a fantastic Major League debut by Buster Posey and the solid graduation of Madison Bumgarner. This has left a system that is extremely thin after the top. Things would have been worse if not for the surprising performance of Brandon Belt in 2010, that saw him vault from outside of the Top 500 to inside the Top 50. But that doesn’t help the tremendous fall off in this system after their first three. While there remains significant depth at all levels of the system, what is lacking are high ceiling prospects. One noticeable area of decline has come in the area of signing Latin American talent, where the Giants had been one of the Major’s most aggressive teams and have now not signed a high profile player from the area since 2008. This is likely to show up more over the next two to three years.</div><div align="left"><br />While it is difficult to criticize a front office that just produced a World Series champion, we remain ardent critics of current trends—most strongly the mishandling of Buster Posey in early 2009/early 2010 and the resigning of Bengie Molina, in lieu of a corner outfielder—both of which left the Giants a mere two game cushion for making the 2010 playoffs. While yes, they still made the playoffs, these were horrible miscalculations. Moving into this season, Sabean has once again over-valued marginal offensive players. The projected starting outfield of Ross-Torres-DeRosa is likely the weakest in the game. Aubrey Huff is barely a marginal first baseman, and an infield with Sandoval at third and Tejeda at short will be one of the worst fielding infields in baseball. This means the Giants will once again be an extremely one dimensional team. Although their starting rotation remains one of baseball’s best, there is little in the way of depth available at either the Major or Minor League level should injuries occur. We would like to believe that Sabean is comfortable with the situation because he plans on using Belt at either first base or left field, but after watching how Posey was dealt with to begin 2010, this seems barely plausible. Most any other prospect with a chance of contributing in 2011 appears to be of the ‘low ceiling’ variety and doesn’t provide great optimism. From our perspective, Sabean has missed a prime opportunity to shore up his offense, thereby buying time for a Minor League talent infusion.<br /><br />Don’t misunderstand, the rotation is exceptional and, with the exception of Barry Zito, relatively young. As long as it remains healthy the Giants will be contenders. The problem is that we see little of significant talent on the horizon. While we are huge believers in Belt and see potential in Wheeler in Brown, the remainder of the system is mediocre at best.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – Posey and Bumgarner were easy one/two picks last season, so we had to dig down a bit and come up with a surprise. We will make this call our pick of Jorge Bucardo at #15 last year—as he was not even on the radar for most places.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – Take your pick…We had Kiescnick at #7 heading into the year and he was a huge disappointment, but not having Brandon Belt appear until #35 (#948 overall)—obviously we were not alone here—was about as big an oversight as we had on any player last year.</div><div align="left"><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A<br /></span></strong><br />1) <strong>Brandon Belt, 1B</strong> (2010 Performance Scores– Power 78; Discipline 47; First Base Rate 76; Speed 59)<br /><br />No player improved more from the end of 2009 to the end of 2010 than did Belt, as the Giants rebuilt his swing, standing him more upright and turned him into one of the Minor League’s most consistent hitters. It’s not that Belt was an unknown coming out of the University of Texas, as he finished the 2009 NCAA season with a Top 30 Performance score, it was just that his swing mechanics left serious questions about his power ability and his defense was going to relegate him to a position where power was required. We should have known better, however, than to rank him as low as we did. That said, Belt put together what was arguably the most productive offensive season in the minors in 2010, with a 1.037 OPS across three levels—earning him the #2 Performance Score in the California League (CAL) and the #3 Performance Score in the Eastern League. Belt demonstrated plus power and contact skills, with a solid ability to hit to the opposite field with authority. Defensively, Belt is a decent athlete that should be capable of above average defense at first base or adequate left field defense. There is little in the way of speed here, and with only a single year of the new mechanics we worry a bit about his late season tendency to be a bit anxious—as he did whiff in 25% of his plate appearances between AAA and the AZFL. At a slight 6’5”, Belt has the potential to turn into a solid middle of the order hitting machine. Count us among the believers, as we expect the Giants will start Belt at AAA for the first two months before turning over either left field or first base to him on a permanent basis.</div><div align="left"><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A-<br /></span></strong><br /><br />2) <strong>Gary Brown, OF</strong> –<br /><br />Brown has the classic boom or bust type of profile, as he finished the spring college season with the #8 Performance score that led him to being selected as the #24 overall pick this summer, but still doesn’t demonstrate enough patience at the plate to instill confidence in his ‘certainty’. Brown is athletically gifted, with plus-plus speed. While he hasn’t demonstrated a propensity for the home run, his other power stats portend at least average power and contact skills. Defensively he has an adequate arm and the ability to cover vast amounts of ground, which should make him an ideal center fielder. The ceiling on Brown is that of one of the games most exciting players with the ability to ignite an offense from the top of the order. However, he remains far from a sure thing. Our guess is that we like him a bit better than most. Expect the Giants to challenge him with a placement in the CAL. He could move rapidly, and seeing him in San Francisco in 2012 is certainly within the range of outcomes.<br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Zack Wheeler, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 71; Control 21; HRrate 77; Stamina 41)<br /><br />We had Wheeler as the fourth best prep pitcher available in the 2009 draft and little has changed to alter that perspective. Because of where he was drafted (6th overall), the expectations were high for him entering 2010 and therefore his solid season (13th best Performance Score in the SAL) looks a bit disappointing. Given the proper context, we see Wheeler as a 20yo that fanned 10.8 batters per 9IP in the South Atlantic League, while showing a significant propensity to keep the ball on the ground. Command remains his biggest challenge, and should not be overlooked. However, given his age and lack of experience we will give him at least another season to show progress in this area. Wheeler has the upside of a solid Major League #2. While he will have to improve his command to reach it, we like his expected developmental curve. Wheeler will likely begin 2011 in the CAL. His repertoire is polished, so if he learns to control his offerings he could move rapidly.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br /><br />4) <strong>Charlie Culberson, 2B</strong> (2010– Power 61; Discipline 59; First Base Rate 45; Speed 79)<br /><br />Things in the Giants’ system fall off quite a bit at this point and an argument could be made for any of about five players here. We however like the improvement shown by Culberson this year and with go with the player with the arrow pointing upward. Culberson was a supplemental first round pick in 2007, so it isn’t as though he comes without pedigree. However his skill set reads like a mutt from the dog pound, as he has marginal defensive skills, average power, average contact skills, below average plate discipline and average middle infield speed. What he does possess that is first rate is baseball intelligence and desire. Much of the gains this year can be attributed to a strikeout rate that dipped to 18%. Culberson isn’t a high ceiling player, but we can envision him as a Marcus Giles type second baseman. He will take his game to AA in 2011. It won’t be an easy path, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see him in San Francisco in 2012.<br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Thomas Neal, LF</strong> (2010– Power 56; Discipline 62; First Base Rate 54; Speed 65)<br /><br />One of the reasons that it was so easy to have Culberson at #4, is that his ‘warts’ or so less glaring then the other contenders. Neal for example is a ‘nice’ prospect that entered 2010 as the Giants #4 prospect—following a breakout 2009 campaign. He possesses average power, average contact, average plate discipline and average speed (for a LF/1B type). But defensively he is limited to likely LF or 1B, and average skills for those positions don’t typically lead to a whole lot. Neal still managed to post a Top #20 Performance Score in the Eastern League (ESL), and has gradually cut down his strikeout rate to under 18% in 2010. This all portends an upside of perhaps an everyday starting left-fielder. Our guess is that he ends up more likely a 4th outfielder/ platoon type player when all is said and done. In any case, he is headed for the PCL in 2011 and could reach San Francisco as early as mid-year.</div><div align="left"><br /><br />6) <strong>Rafael Rodriguez, OF</strong> (2010– Power 54; Discipline 68; First Base Rate 54; Speed 48)<br /><br />Rodriguez is one of the few remaining players with ‘ceiling’ left on this list. One of the top international signings from 2008, Rodriguez took a step backwards in 2010, as he was overmatched in the Northwest League (NWL) and his Arizona circuit performance was no better than his 2009 work there. Still, as only an 18yo, his AZL performance was good enough to earn him the #5 Performance Score in the league and solid enough that he shouldn’t fall too far down the list. Rodriguez has a muscular build that foretells above-average power. Though he has yet to really show it in game situations, his plate approach is significantly advanced for his age. While the development curve is substantial, the skill set still foreshadows future promise. For that reason we wouldn’t be surprised to see Rodriguez return to the NWL in 2011 and put together a breakout season—there is just too much talent here.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Jorge Bucardo, RHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 42; Control 50; HRrate 67; Stamina 73)<br /><br />We are sure that our ranking of Bucardo is higher than most—just as it was when he came in at #15 on our list last year. But what are we to do with a pitcher that played 2010 as a 20yo and posted the #10 Performance Score in the SAL—after posting a #4 score in 2009 (NWL) and a #5 score in 2008 (AZL)? The consistency of what he has done is an indicator of future success. The scouts won’t love him, as his fastball is a solid ‘heavy’ type offering that induces substantial ground balls but doesn’t overpower hitters. His secondary offerings still appear to be fringe-average offerings—leading many to speculate his future is out of the pen, but he has demonstrated excellent pitchability and holds his velocity deep into games, so we wouldn’t lean that direction just yet. What Bucardo has shown is an upside that could result in a solid mid-rotation starter. Still relatively slight, it would not surprise us to see his fastball move up another notch or so. If that happens, few lists will ignore him next season.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Ehire Adrianza, SS</strong> (2010– Power 32; Discipline 60; First Base Rate 59; Speed 76)<br /><br />Having briefly appeared in the PCL as a 19yo in 2008, Adrianza is often overlooked because his progress offensively has not been able to keep up with his significant defensive abilities. Fear not though, as Adrianza is progressing pretty much as would be expected, as the 21yo posted a Top 15 Performance Score in the CAL in 2010. Adrianza has virtually no power, and still strikes out too often (18%) for the rest of his profile, but has shown the ability to take a walk and make adequate contact. But Adrianza’s value lies in his plus speed, excellent lateral movement, soft hands and a strong arm, that enable him to man the shortstop position like few in the Minor’s can. Because of that, he is a near certainty to find himself in a Big League uniform at some point. The question is whether or not he will hit enough to nail down an everyday job, or whether he will be a defensive backup. We see him no worse than a Cesar Izturis type. 2011 should provide us with a clearer picture, as Adrianza will take his considerable glove to the ESL.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Francisco Peguero, CF</strong> (2010– Power 43; Discipline 66; First Base Rate 55; Speed 74)<br /><br />One player that we have not been able to embrace to the same level as have others is Peguero. Our guess is that his ability to make contact and plus speed (40 SBs in 2010) indicate a skill set that others envision playing well as he moves up the ladder. Or perhaps they have bought into the excessive hype that permeates the Giant organization for him. What we can tell you is that in the six stops that we have graded during his professional career (#84 in 2006-DSL; #62 in 2007-DSL; #15 in 2008-NWL; #46 in 2008-SAL; #33 in 2009-SAL; #27 in 2010-CAL) his Performance ranking has averaged #44. Those aren’t results that provide us with optimism. We do like Peguero’s quick bat, ability to make contact, plus speed and solid defensive abilities. If we were convinced that his rather stocky 6’0” build would allow him to permanently stay in center we might be a bit more convinced. However, we believe that his build will not mature well, forcing an eventual move to right field. Peguero doesn’t have the requisite power skills to be enamored with him as an OF corner. His Dominican Winter League performance this offseason was highly disappointing, and we are guarded against his chances to repeat his power numbers from the CAL when he moves to the ESL in 2011. The Giants believe we will see Peguero in San Francisco no later than 2012. While we won’t ignore his significant skills, we remain skeptical.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Jarrett Parker, OF</strong> –<br /><br />Parker entered the 2010 collegiate season as a likely late first/sandwich round pick. As the year went on his stock consistently dropped. If it hadn’t been for a torrid finish who knows how far he would have fallen. As it was, he finished with a Performance Score outside of the Top 50 and a projected draft rating by us that barely had him in the second round, which is just about where the Giants tabbed him. While scouts love his athleticism, his long swing gives pause as to his ability to make consistent contact as a pro. Admittedly, Parker is a bit of a ‘wildcard’ pick here. The organization doesn’t have enough high ceiling prospects to overlook the potential of a possibly athletic center fielder with plus power (his upside) and he definitely enters 2011 more highly regarded than Brandon Belt was the same time last year. The Giants had tremendous success working with Belt’s swing mechanics and if they are able to make similar strides with Parker’s this will be much too low of a grade.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Edwin Escobar, LHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 57; Control 23; HRrate 31; Stamina 69)<br /><br />The Giants obtained Escobar from the Rangers at the beginning of the 2010 season when the Rangers decided to hang on to Rule 5 pick Ben Snyder. We questioned the move at the time, as Snyder wasn’t a Top 50 prospect for us in the weaker Giant organization, while Escobar checked in at #21 on our 2010 Texas list. We like the move even less now. While there are plenty of things regarding Escobar to remain skeptical about—namely the amount of projection that remains in his thick 6’0 frame, or his 2010 struggles with control, he is one of the few high-upside pitchers in the system beyond Wheeler. He followed up a #2 Performance Score in the AZL in 2009, with a #2 score in the NWL this past season. He won’t turn 19yo until after the season starts, but will be making his full-season debut in the SAL and already possesses a low-90s fastball and a potentially plus curve. For us, it all comes together as a possible breakout candidate in 2011—although Escobar’s command will be a critical developmental indicator. The ceiling is that of a solid #2/#3 Big League starter.<br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Eric Surkamp, LHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 73; Control 71; HRrate 69; Stamina 75)<br /><br />Likely the opposite of Escobar, Surkamp often gets overlooked because he is a low-ceiling, high-floor type. The prototypical ‘finesse’ left he pitches more with deception than power, Surkamp posted the #9 Performance Score in the CAL in 2010. He has all the markings of a ‘heady’ mid-rotation starter, as he commands his repertoire well and keeps the ball down—yielding few home runs. The negatives lie in the fact that his fastball is only a low-80s offering and at 23yo, he has yet to pitch above Hi-A. 2011 will be key for Surkamp, as he will need to touch two circuits if he is likely to retain this type of ranking.<br /><br /><br />Other Top 300 Considerations – 13) <strong>Tommy Joseph, C</strong>.<br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.</div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-24282750860587620492011-01-09T13:42:00.005-06:002011-01-09T14:08:47.713-06:00Zack Greinke, Matt Garza and Shawn Marcum and Why We Love Our Prospects<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFm5QTYTB_xirFGoa6vU3LLrmfKyttsRkzTlpDMya-B3ypaZJQ_d-GLNqU__VfDg6B1vXt3Ju7qbBTTKfwH920ToziU4oCURbVwWblhk2aXSXmBCI6L1ZG9eP0yzkT_AFmTo9MCAlcBYHz/s1600/Matt+Garza.jpg"><span style="font-size:78%;"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 188px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 269px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5560274196197645954" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFm5QTYTB_xirFGoa6vU3LLrmfKyttsRkzTlpDMya-B3ypaZJQ_d-GLNqU__VfDg6B1vXt3Ju7qbBTTKfwH920ToziU4oCURbVwWblhk2aXSXmBCI6L1ZG9eP0yzkT_AFmTo9MCAlcBYHz/s400/Matt+Garza.jpg" /></span></a><span style="font-size:78%;"> It is difficult to see how the Garza trade isn’t a win for the Cubs</span></div><p><br /><br /><br /><br />The prospect business is a tremendously unique business. We write thousands of words about every little move that involves a Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper and spend countless hours hunting around to ‘announce’ to the baseball world the next coming of Albert Pujols. For fans of specific teams we sell hope. Hope for their team’s future. What we, as the prospect ‘experts’ (and I use the word loosely) fail so often to recognize—and even more so fail to adequately provide—is context. When Baseball America lets the world know that Chris Archer is the Cubs #1 prospect (their opinion—not necessarily ours), they typically don’t provide adequate context to help you understand that Archer may be the #1 prospect in the system, but that is only because someone has to get that distinction in an organization that lacks any true elite level prospects. Immediately though, cries go out from Cub-nation that Jim Hendry has mortgaged his team’s future, when he deals for the Rays’ Matt Garza. Similar thoughts were expressed a few weeks ago when the Brewers, an organization with even fewer elite prospects, dealt their top prospects in order to acquire Zack Grienke and Shaun Marcum. I’d like to provide some of the missing context with a simple question…How would you rate the value that exists, given their contract situations, ages, etc. of Zack Grienke, Matt Garza and Shaun Marcum?<br /><br />Grienke is 27 years old, with two years for $27 million left on his existing contract. According to baseball-reference.com Grienke has produced an average WAR of 5.2 over the last three seasons. We would certainly expect the next two years to match those numbers.</p><p><br />Garza is slightly younger, but, also 27 years old. He is under team control until 2013, and judging by recent signings/awards to similar pitchers in the 2010 off-season, he is likely to make somewhere in the neighborhood of $9 - $10 million for those two seasons. He has produced an average WAR of 3.0 over the last three seasons, and moving to the NL central should easily produce in the neighborhood of 3.5 – 4.0 WAR for the next two seasons.</p><p><br />Marcum is 29 years old. He is under team control until 2013, as well, and is likely to earn around $6 million over the next two seasons. He missed the 2009 season, but has produced an average WAR for the last three seasons that he pitched of 2.9. A 3.5 WAR over the next two seasons seems about right for him.<br /><br />If money is no object, Grienke is clearly the best player. But Grienke is coming off of a down year and has a history of problems. Marcum is coming off his best year and is the cheapest, but is the oldest and did have Tommy John surgery that cost him 2009. Garza is the safest performance bet and is the youngest of the three. The point is, when it comes to value, there isn’t a clear answer to who is most valuable—even though the knee jerk response is easily Zack Grienke. For us, the cost vs. performance equation places all three of them with similar organizational value. The important thing is that each of them should be a quality starting pitcher in the Major Leagues for the next two seasons—at least—and should produce at levels that place them somewhere between the top 20% to the top 5% of starting pitchers over that time. They are players of significant worth.<br /><br />So what did they cost each team to acquire?<br /><br />For Greinke, the Royals received Alcides Escobar—a slick fielding young shortstop who is likely to struggle to hit at a major league average level and has been reported to have questionable work habits; Lorenzo Cain—a young outfielder who over performed in his Big League debut and most likely projects as a solid 4th outfielder or below average major league regular; Jake Odorizzi, a nice pitching prospect, who likely will make the Top 100 this year, but will likely fall outside the Top 50; and Jeremy Jeffress, a head case if there ever was one, who has the upside a solid back of the bullpen reliever if everything falls into place—a situation that is unlikely to occur. If all of these were still prospect eligible, while solid prospects—all likely in or near the Top 100—none would be in the Top 50. Using Victor Wang’s prospect values study from a couple of years ago, we can estimate the expected CAREER WAR value for this group to be somewhere around 12.0 or roughly the same as Grienke is expected to produce over the next two seasons.<br /><br />For Garza, the Rays received Hak-Ju Lee—a very nice shortstop prospect that is unlikely to produce enough power to play anywhere but short and is currently blocked in the organization by Starlin Castro, and is possibly a fringe Top 100 prospect at the present; Chris Archer, who was the third player the Cubs received two years ago for Mark DeRosa, possesses a nasty heater, but with questionable control and secondary offerings looks more like bullpen material to us—with all deference to Baseball America, Archer is also a fringe Top 100 prospect; Robinson Chirinos—an extremely old catching prospect who doesn’t look to be much more than a backup at the Major League level; Brandon Guyer, an underrated outfield prospect who could find time in the majors as a fourth outfielder/platoon type player but wouldn’t be on anyone’s top 100 prospect lists; and Sam Fuld, a journeyman AAAA type of outfielder. Neglecting the two mid-tier prospects the Cubs received in return, the expected CAREER WAR value for these players is approximately 8.0—or about what Garza should provide the Cubs in 2011 and 2012.<br /><br />For Marcum, the Jays received Brett Lawrie. While we are not as high on Lawrie as some others are, he is easily the best prospect exchanged in these three deals and is likely to rank in the Top 50 in our prospect list. Lawrie’s expected CAREER WAR value is in the neighborhood of 5.0—or likely less than Marcum should provide the Brewers over the next two seasons.<br /><br />Hopefully, what is becoming obvious here is that—at least on the production side of the equation—these deals are big wins for the Cubs and the Brewers—as long as they get something more or in return for the commodities at the end of two seasons. Whenever a team can trade a handful of less than elite prospects for a good Major League player it is a win—despite how much we love our prospects.<br /><br />But there is another consideration at play here, and that is the concept of perceived value. About a decade ago we wrote a piece about how the Yankees, after bringing Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada to the Majors, went through a period of time where their system produced very little, but they were able to trade their ‘top’ prospects and get quality Major League players in return. This was astonishing to us, as time-after-time these were always ‘winning’ deals for the Yankees. The easy theory would have been an East Coast media bias and the hype of the Yankees media machine. At the time we offered another angle—namely, that teams with few elite prospect talents benefit more from trading their top prospects because they garner more perceived value by being the ‘best prospect in an organization’. Kenny Williams and the White Sox have used this same strategy successfully for a number of years now. We would like to offer up the recent moves by the Brewers and the Cubs as more of the same. Yes, maybe Brett Lawrie or Jake Odorizzi was the best prospect in the Brewers' system. Yes, maybe Chris Archer or Hak-Ju Lee was the best prospect in the Cubs' system. But given the current lack of elite talent in the respective systems that is exactly why now is the time to trade them. The reason that a team like the Rangers--with a much stronger group of top tier prospects--wasn't able to reach a deal with the Rays, can likely be found in the fact that when the Rays wanted the better prospects from Texas' system the Rangers found the price too high because they would be dealing better players. A similar ask by the Rays might have been Jurickson Profar, Engle Beltre, Robbie Erlin and Max Ramirez. So, instead of questioning Jim Hendry and Doug Melvin, Cubs’ and Brewers’ fans should be praising them for some brilliant acquisitions that should make baseball a lot more interesting around Lake Michigan this summer. </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-24981906256182895092011-01-04T11:15:00.006-06:002011-01-04T11:32:49.327-06:00How Well is Your Organization Run?<span style="font-size:85%;"></span><br /><div><br /><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj8UkYMU1ltAzPQ_tRGz5vg-rv-OdIqCHWQj1pDzLmY-GUmzbNmIUU8mezOlQUCS91zmAoF6ifAPhhyphenhyphensY7bTNcy-ndNBkY6J3GFEgthmZMwsFXk9ef0VzUgChGJnKXhyphenhyphenezvZ3Yvs9pjh4E/s1600/larry+Beinfest.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 200px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 200px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5558380726196844786" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj8UkYMU1ltAzPQ_tRGz5vg-rv-OdIqCHWQj1pDzLmY-GUmzbNmIUU8mezOlQUCS91zmAoF6ifAPhhyphenhyphensY7bTNcy-ndNBkY6J3GFEgthmZMwsFXk9ef0VzUgChGJnKXhyphenhyphenezvZ3Yvs9pjh4E/s200/larry+Beinfest.jpg" /></a><br /><br /></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5GxlBlEt5F-MqyitGN2J-ArHboLebhXnpizanhwLfxN8E6frnEO_IlprJHA5q0-DJGVioHJrQH8XrnNflsu4voDmzo1s6h3snYEhsX6giL8ZmK8MBb8Q63B_N-iZqV9cydTpWQyI_Eht_/s1600/andrew+friedman.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; WIDTH: 200px; FLOAT: right; HEIGHT: 145px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5558381049325725282" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5GxlBlEt5F-MqyitGN2J-ArHboLebhXnpizanhwLfxN8E6frnEO_IlprJHA5q0-DJGVioHJrQH8XrnNflsu4voDmzo1s6h3snYEhsX6giL8ZmK8MBb8Q63B_N-iZqV9cydTpWQyI_Eht_/s200/andrew+friedman.jpg" /></a><br /><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;">Larry Beinfest and Andrew Freidman have proved very effective at doing more with less</span></div><div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;"></span> </div><div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></div><div align="center"></div><div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></div><div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></div><div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></div><div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></div><div align="center"><span style="font-size:85%;"></span></div><div align="left"><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></div><div align="left"> </div><div align="left">In a brief respite from the prospect rankings, we thought we’d share something that we have been working on for the past eighteen months. We spend a lot of time trying to ‘project’ longer-term performance of Minor League baseball players. Ultimately, we have settled around a method that evaluates the expected ‘Win’ contribution a prospect will eventually make in the Major Leagues. While an individual’s performance/skill set plays the greatest role in that determination, a player’s eventual development is somewhat dependent on other people. First, the player has to be discovered by some Major League organization’s scouting system. Once they are selected, coaches and trainers play important roles in maximizing a player’s development. Finally, an effective GM must create ‘opportunity’ for the player to have a place to play in the Major Leagues. The cold, hard facts are that some organizations perform these functions more effectively than others.<br /><br />As part of this year’s prospect guide, we are taking a closer look at organizational performance. For the last eighteen months we have been gathering data—payroll data, bonus data, scouting data, organizational infrastructure data—in an effort to better understand who is really good at maximizing assets…and why? As part of this, we have developed some new metrics that help us evaluate the effectiveness of General Managers, Scouting Directors and Minor League Operations Directors. This year’s edition of the guide, will shed light not only on how capable individual prospects are, but how capable are the people who will be responsible for their development. As a preview of some of this, we thought we’d share a bit of what we have found out.<br /><br />The foundational premise that this work is based on, lies in the belief that an effective organization is one who maximizes profits—while winning. For instance, the Kansas City Royals will never have the financial resources available to them that say the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox do. However, that does not mean that Royals aren’t capable of maximizing their resources to find and develop prospects and utilize those resources to construct the most productive team at the Major League level that those resources will allow. What our goal was, was to develop a way to measure their success or failure at it. The beauty of having an efficient prospect/player projection engine, is that it allows us to value a team’s assets at any point in time of the asset’s development cycle. If a team has limited resources available to put together a scouting organization, how well do they utilize those resources to find ‘assets’? How well do they manage the resources available to develop players? Most importantly, how well do they manage the available assets in order to put a winning product on the field at the Major League level?</div><div align="left"><br />Drawing on my background in financial modeling in the business world, we decided that—at least from an organizational level—a ‘return on investment’ approach seemed to be the logical approach. Some quick statistical analysis verified two, what should be, obvious concepts: 1) Teams that spend more money win more often and 2) Teams that win more often put more bodies in the stands—thereby generating more money. Therefore, the effective organization is the one that successfully manages their financial resources to produce ‘Wins’. Somewhat tangential to this, all ‘Wins’ are not created equal. Even the poorest of Major League teams, win a little more than 40 games each year. So winning those games does not produce any marginal value. But when you start looking at later wins, and comparing them to what they do for jumps in attendance--and revenue, each Win is incrementally more valuable than the next. For example a Win in the 81-90 range is worth marginally about three times the value of a Win in the 51-60 range. What we have done is determine the marginal value of each win and created a metric that we call Adjusted Marginal Wins. For the period between 2003-2010, this value—while averaging 81.0 for all teams—ranges from 31 to 143. We then compile organizational expenditures. What does an organization spend on team payroll and associated fringe? How much do they spend on scouting and signing bonuses? What do they spend on their manager and coaching staffs? How much does it cost them to run their farm system? We divide this total expenditure by the number of Adjusted Marginal Wins to determine a Cost per Adjusted Marginal Win (CAMW). In 2010 dollars, the average CAMW was just under $2.1 million. Now it isn’t quite that simplistic as we do look at marginal potential values that are inherently contained in an organization’s farm system (remember these are assets that can be converted into players at the Major League level) and adjust Marginal Wins slightly (this can vary as much as 6-7 Marginal Wins for a given season), as well as a couple of other minor adjustments, but you should be getting the picture by now.<br /><br />To give you an idea of what we can do with this information, here are some interesting lists that we have compiled at an organizational level from the period of 2000-2010…</div><div align="left"><br /><br /><strong>Organizational Amateur Scouting Expenditure Rankings</strong></div><div align="left"><br />1) New York Yankees<br />2) Boston Red Sox<br />3) Kansas City Royals<br />4) Atlanta Braves<br />5) Cleveland Indians<br />26) Los Angeles Dodgers<br />27) Washington Nationals<br />28) St. Louis Cardinals<br />29) Philadelphia Phillies<br />30) Houston Astros</div><div align="left"><br /><br /><strong>Amateur Scouting Production Rankings</strong><br /><br />1) Boston Red Sox<br />2) Washington Nationals<br />3) Kansas City Royals<br />4) Tampa Bay Rays<br />5) Arizona Diamondbacks<br />26) Philadelphia Phillies<br />27) Minnesota Twins<br />28) St. Louis Cardinals<br />29) Florida Marlins<br />30) Houston Astros<br /><br /><br /><strong>Organizational CAMW Rankings (2003-2010)</strong><br /><br />1) Florida Marlins - 1,274,054<br />2) Tampa Bay Rays - 1,369,213<br />3) Minnesota Twins - 1,447,123<br />4) Oakland Athletics - 1,501,962<br />5) Cleveland Indians - 1,679,702<br />6) San Diego Padres - 1,687,306<br />7) St. Louis Cardinals - 1,823,604<br />8) Milwaukee Brewers - 1,855,950<br />9) Colorado Rockies - 1,861,935<br />10) Los Angeles Angels - 1,863,737<br />26) Detroit Tigers - 2,378,455<br />27) Seattle Mariners - 2,432,502<br />28) Baltimore Orioles - 2,550,242<br />29) New York Yankees - 2,667,173<br />30) New York Mets - 2,698,492<br /><br /><br /><strong>Top 10 Single Season CAMW Values</strong><br /><br />Team ... CAMW ... Actual Wins<br />1) 2008-Tampa Bay Rays … 847,470 … 97<br />2) 2008-Florida Marlins … 893,206 … 84<br />3) 2010-San Diego Padres … 931,504 … 90<br />4) 2005-Cleveland Indians … 1,009,519 … 93<br />5) 2009-Florida Marlins … 1,022,908 … 87<br />6) 2003-Oakland Athletics … 1,032,051 … 96<br />7) 2006-Florida Marlins … 1,037,041 … 78<br />8) 2007-Cleveland Indians … 1,092,142 … 96<br />9) 2003-Florida Marlins … 1,130,167 … 91<br />10) 2010-Tampa Bay Rays … 1,145,090 … 96<br /><br /><br /><strong>Bottom 10 Single Season CAMW Values</strong><br /><br />Team ... CAMW ... Actual Wins<br /><br />1) 2003-New York Mets … 4,353,268 … 66<br />2) 2004-Arizona D’backs … 4,169,527 … 51<br />3) 2003-Detroit Tigers … 4,139,346 … 43<br />4) 2009-New York Mets … 4,079,971 … 70<br />5) 2006-Chicago Cubs … 3,718,848 … 66<br />6) 2003-Texas Rangers … 3,591,877 … 71<br />7) 2008-Detroit Tigers … 3,527,424 … 74<br />8) 2004-Seattle Mariners … 3,501,036 … 63<br />9) 2004-New York Mets … 3,451,278 … 71<br />10) 2010 - Seattle Mariners … 3,446,939 … 61<br /><br /><br />In the 2011 Diamond Futures Prospect eGuide you can find the complete lists that include rankings for all current GMs and Scouting Directors.</div><div></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-18916926239243985482010-12-30T14:37:00.003-06:002010-12-30T14:42:56.958-06:00TEAM #27 – Florida Marlins<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3bhncl6OnbHUtIeBZoETdp1zwIqwMWS247CvzDbs1m8lrhNRxfh1bepNA_B-zjirbIP0N6fnZnLHgTS6IVUrbHf5AViIovpVvS9zdL5COLh0QU7SSSkxkmxKS8nTEHC2XSUMj-3tnV27q/s1600/Matt+Dominguez.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 225px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5556577720876582210" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3bhncl6OnbHUtIeBZoETdp1zwIqwMWS247CvzDbs1m8lrhNRxfh1bepNA_B-zjirbIP0N6fnZnLHgTS6IVUrbHf5AViIovpVvS9zdL5COLh0QU7SSSkxkmxKS8nTEHC2XSUMj-3tnV27q/s400/Matt+Dominguez.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:85%;">Dominguez is primed to assume the Marlins 3B job sometime this season</span></div><br /><br /><br />With Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison taking their game to the next level, the Marlins’ prospect list is a bit thin this year. Matt Dominguez was the #3 prospect from last year’s list (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/team-14-florida-marlins.html">TEAM #14 – Florida Marlins</a>) and more or less by default assumes the organization’s top ranking heading into 2011. Left-handed pitching is a surprising strength of the Marlins, while a tremendous dearth of right-handed starting pitching prospects forms a glaring weakness. Most of the Marlins’ troubles can be traced back to relatively disappointing drafts in 2008 and 2009 where respective top picks Kyle Skipworth and Chad James haven’t lived up to expectations. When this is coupled with the fact that the Marlins have been one of the least aggressive players in the international market, the result is an organization that lacks both strength at the top and depth throughout.<br /><br />The question, though, is whether the arrow is pointed up or down, as the Marlins slipped to under .500 for the first time in three seasons in 2010. With key departures of Dan Uggla and Cameron Maybin being replaced by Omar Infante and likely Scott Cousins it is difficult to imagine the Marlins improving upon last season’s third place finish—even considering likely improvements from Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton and the upgrades at catcher of John Buck and Javier Vasquez replacing Nate Robertson. The problem is that the Marlins just don’t spend the money to continue to keep up with teams like the Phillies. It shows up glaringly when examining the amateur draft. Where the typical Major League team annually shells out in the neighborhood of $7.0 million in signing bonuses (draft and international); the Marlins rank in the bottom 10%, having averaged about $4.3 million over the last four years. This becomes evident when examining the Marlins Minor League talent levels. The Marlins are a team that have a history of successfully accomplishing ‘more with less’, so it would be silly to write them off now, but this is a franchise in need of a major prospect talent infusion.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – We could go in a lot of directions with this as we have consistently believed in Dominguez, cautioned that Chad James was a ‘reach’ in 2009 and have been ahead of the curve on Marcell Ozuna, but the logically choice here is our selection of Brad Hand at #10, who is likely to be found no worse than 7th or 8th in any 2011 rankings and even higher in ours.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – Injuries played a role in a number of Marlins’ misses in 2010, such as Bryan Berglund and Isaac Galloway, but Ryan Tucker, who we had at #6, has not returned to the levels that we had expected.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A-<br /></span></strong><br /><br />1) <strong>Matt Dominguez, 3B</strong> (2010 Performance Scores– Power 66; Discipline 57; First Base Rate 41; Speed 29)<br /><br />We have been touting Dominguez as the Minor’s best defensive third baseman for three years now. Because of the defense, the Marlin’s have rushed him a bit and his offense has lagged behind—despite still posting the #7 Performance Score in the Southern League (SOL) in 2010. The important thing to remember is that Dominguez will play nearly all of the 2011 season as a 21yo, and if the Marlins’ plans workout, in the Major Leagues. If Dominguez is never more than a .720 OPS hitter, he will still be an everyday Major League third baseman—his glove is that good. But don’t fear, as he matures, there is every reason to believe that Dominguez will develop average, across-the-board, hitting skills for the position—with potentially above average power (50 XBH in AA as a 20yo in 2010). Given time, the assessment is that Dominguez should develop into a league-average offensive player with ‘gold glove’ defensive abilities. That said, it won’t be in 2011. The Marlins plan to give Dominguez a solid shot at winning a starting position this spring. Instead, we hope they will send him to AAA to start the season and give him at least another half season in the minors. His offensive game is not yet Major League ready—especially vs. left-handers. Long-term, however, Dominguez has an all-star caliber ceiling. It is quite possible that Dominguez is the best overall third base prospect—among those likely to remain at the position. The question is whether the Marlins will be patient with his offensive development. <br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong><br />2) <strong>Christian Yelich, OF/1B</strong> –<br /><br />We had Yelich pegged as a sandwich round pick last June, before the Marlins selected him with the #23 pick in the first round. A polished hitter, Yelich showed no signs of problems transitioning to the pro game in his brief 2010 debut. With above average contact skills and average power and speed skills there is little concern about his offensive abilities. The real question lies in his defense. After playing primarily first base in high school, the Marlins are trying Yelich in the outfield. There is little reason to believe that Yelich has the requisite coverage skills to play in center and his below average arm will not play in right field. This leaves left field and first base as his likely eventual defensive destination. We are not confident that Yelich possesses the requisite power skills for a Major League first baseman (hence our slight pre-draft downgrade), thereby making his ceiling likely limited to a league average left fielder or perhaps even a platoon type player. Given his advanced development, his ‘certainty’ rating is higher than most—leading to his ranking on this list, but we don’t find the upside that you would expect from a first round pick. We will watch, with interest, his defensive development. The Marlins are likely to send him to full-season A-ball to begin 2011, and it wouldn’t shock us to see him spend less than a ‘full-season’ there. <br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Chad James, LHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 48; Control 23; HRrate 71; Stamina 67)<br /><br />Much like Yelich, we believed James to be a sandwich round talent in 2009 before the Marlins tabbed him at #18. Also much like Yelich, our concerns center around taking a prep pick with a limited ceiling in the first round—the washout rate is extensive. In 2010, James did little to change our minds, as he showed the ability to use a relatively developed, heavy, repertoire to keep the ball on the ground—but lacked a dominant ‘swing and miss’ pitch. To properly frame this, we are higher on Ian Krol, a smallish lefty with a similar upside that the A’s selected six rounds later in 2010. While it sounds like we are bashing James, the reality is that he still has a very projectable 6’3” frame that should leave him with a consistent low-90s fastball. His best pitch remains his hard curve and he has an adequate change—leaving him with a solid three pitch arsenal and making him a projectable #2/#3 starter. His 2010 South Atlantic League performance earned him the league’s #9 Score. While he struggled with his control, it has more to do with his approach than any flaw in his mechanics. The Marlins are likely to begin him in the Florida State League to open 2011—despite being barely 20 yo. There is still plenty to be optimistic on with James and this season would be a good spot for him to start to demonstrate it.<br /><br /><br />4) <strong>Brad Hand, LHP</strong> (2010– Dominance 54; Control 49; HRrate 38; Stamina 72)<br /><br />We became ‘enamored’ with Hand after his fastball took a bit of a jump—leading to a breakout 2009 season. Already possessing a plus curve and an average change, the solid fastball was the key to believing that Hand had the makings of a solid mid-rotation starter. Hand built upon his 2009 season, finishing 2010 with the #8 Performance Score in FSL. The Marlins believed in Hand enough that they made him part of their AA playoff rotation, where he had a masterful couple of starts—as a 20yo. Hand should return to the SOL in 2011, where he will be one of the League’s youngest starters. His ceiling isn’t extremely high, but this is a young left-handed starter with three solid Major League pitches—making him very attractive on the ‘certainty’ side. An argument could be made that Hand is the most attractive starting pitching prospect in the system. With another solid season this year, he should be part of the Marlins’ rotation plans in 2012.<br /> <br /><br />5) <strong>Marcell Ozuna, RF</strong> (2010 – Power 80; Discipline 24; First Base Rate 26; Speed 47)<br /><br />We sounded the watch for Ozuna in our 2010 guide, and he did little to alter our thinking this past season. An early season wrist injury ended his full-season debut, but when he returned in the New York-Penn League he went on a monster offensive tear, belting 21 Home Runs in 270 ABs—50% more than the league runner up—earning the top Performance Score in the League. Ozuna possesses plus-plus power skills, above average speed and a strong arm—all which should make him a natural for right field. The downside is his contact skills, as his strikeout rate soared to 33% in 2010, and Ozuna rarely sees a pitch that he doesn’t believe is worthy of a swing. If you are looking for comps, think Greg Halman or Johermyn Chavez for the Mariners—although we like Ozuna’s upside slightly more than either of them. Plate discipline is the key. If Ozuna finds it, he has the potential to be an all-star caliber Major League right fielder…if he doesn’t he may never escape the Minors. Look for Ozuna to begin 2011 in the SAL.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br />6) <strong>Osvaldo Martinez, MI</strong> (2010 – Power 39; Discipline 72; First Base Rate 70; Speed 54)<br /><br />Martinez checked in at #20 on our 2010 list, before posting a breakout season that earned him the #12 Performance Score in the SOL and a Major League call-up when Hanley Ramirez was shut down. Martinez possesses solid defensive skills with soft hands and a solid arm. This makes him a high ‘floor’ type with the defensive capabilities of handling any of the three infield positions. Offensively Martinez possesses below average power, average speed and above average contact and plate discipline skills. This leads us to believe that he has the ceiling of a Major League average middle infielder and #2 hitter. Expect Martinez to begin 2011 in AAA. With Ramirez entrenched at shortstop, second base appears to be Martinez’s best bet to win a Major League job. It is interesting that the Marlins dealt for Omar Infante this off-season, as the similarities between the two players are striking.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Jhan Marinez, RP</strong> (2010– Dominance 80; Control 26; HRrate 67; Stamina 26)<br /><br />While we are never high on Minor League relief pitchers, Marinez is clearly one of the game’s better ones. With a mid-to upper-90s fastball, Marinez has back of the bullpen potential. How closely he comes to realizing it will depend on the development of slider and improvements in his control. Marinez got a brief opportunity with the Marlins in 2010 and without a true closer in the organization, his path is clear. Look for him to begin 2011 in AAA. If he can show improved control he will likely join the Big League team by mid-season. It wouldn’t even surprise us to see him closing games by season’s end.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B-<br /></span></strong><br /><br />8) <strong>Kyle Skipworth, C</strong> (2010 – Power 73; Discipline 25; First Base Rate 37; Speed 32)<br /><br />Skipworth made strides in 2010, posting his best season as a pro—belting 17 Home Runs in 397 At Bats. However, it still was a far cry from what has been expected of him since the Marlins made him the sixth overall pick in 2008. His Achilles heel has been a propensity to strike out, and 2010 was no different as he fanned in 31% of his Plate Appearances. Skipworth remains a developing, but very solid, defensive backstop. He will turn 21yo just before the 2011 season begins, and will likely begin it in AA. The point being that there is still a significant ceiling here and plenty of time to realize it. Given that the Marlins invested $2.3 million in him when he was drafted they are likely to give him plenty of opportunity. It is still likely a couple of seasons before we should expect to see him in Florida, but we do expect to eventually see him there.<br /> <br /><br />9) <strong>Scott Cousins, CF</strong> (2010 – Power 57; Discipline 51; First Base Rate 46; Speed 71)<br /><br />Another ‘high-floor’/’low-ceiling’ prospect, Cousins will be given an opportunity to earn a starting role as Cameron Maybin’s replacement. There are those that will tell you that the 2006 third round pick has one of the stronger ‘tools’ sets in the system. As we forecast in the 2010 edition, we see Cousins as strictly a 4th outfield/platoon type player with average offensive skills being his upside—an unlikely one. Cousins enters 2011 as a 26yo. While the center field job is available to him, our guess is that it ends up going to Coghlan and Cousins secures a bench role with the Marlins. There isn’t likely to be much projection left here and therefore we see that as is likely outcome.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Rob Rassmussen, LHP</strong> –<br /><br />We had Rasmussen as a late second/early third round pick—a bit below where the Marlins tabbed him. Rassmussen fits the mold of recent Marlin early round picks—namely solid skills but limited ceiling. With a low-90s fastball and four solid pitches—including a plus-curve, it isn’t difficult to envision the leap from where Rassmussen is to the back of the Marlins’ rotation. But the ‘back’ of the rotation is likely his ceiling. Look for Rassmussen to open 2009 in the FSL, but he could move quickly—even seeing the Marlin bullpen in early 2012.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade C+<br /></span></strong><br /><br />11) <strong>Michael Dunn, RP</strong> (2010– Dominance 79; Control 28; HRrate 76; Stamina 27)<br /><br />Dunn was acquired by the Marlins in the Dan Uggla trade. He possesses a mid-90s fastball that he effectively utilizes to set up his ‘swing-and-miss’ slider. Unfortunately, the 25yo has never been able to consistently harness his command enough to provide significant hope that he winds up anything more than a solid ‘LOOGY’. He should get an opportunity to earn a bullpen job with the Marlins this spring, but we are less than confident that you will see much more in the way of development with him.<br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Noah Perio, 2B/SS</strong> (2010 – Power 30; Discipline 76; First Base Rate 54; Speed 74)<br /><br />A name you are unlikely to find any other prospect list, Perio was a top 200 draft talent that the Marlins selected in the 39th round in 2009. Perio played 2010 as an 18yo in the NYP—the League’s 5th youngest everyday player—where he earned the #3 Performance Score. A solid athlete with soft-hands, Perio is a smooth fielder. Offensively he shows plus speed and plate discipline skills and average contact skills. We believe that once his 6’1” frame fills out, he even has the potential for average middle infield power to develop. This makes his ceiling that of a slightly above average middle infielder. There is a long way between here and there, for 2011 Perio should face a legitimate challenge in full-season ball. <br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Other Top 300 Considerations</strong> – We are already past the Top 500!<br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-14118527942471670162010-12-24T12:21:00.003-06:002010-12-24T12:25:08.787-06:00TEAM #28 – Baltimore Orioles<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcHzJvTZyCOcd-RKTayDIrUVUbfrpIeqSHappGQwpm1HvAVGFK0nn-mbt0qcpVlexz8fMgyC22sj3Tx506agx31PKPs-5-bb2ByXZu9_FQ_Lcd_J9TTMaJ8l441NShQH-YtZD2xIoKCnIp/s1600/manny+machado.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 300px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 357px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5554315844165279826" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcHzJvTZyCOcd-RKTayDIrUVUbfrpIeqSHappGQwpm1HvAVGFK0nn-mbt0qcpVlexz8fMgyC22sj3Tx506agx31PKPs-5-bb2ByXZu9_FQ_Lcd_J9TTMaJ8l441NShQH-YtZD2xIoKCnIp/s400/manny+machado.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:78%;">Machado has the potential to be the best high school shortstop drafted in more than 15 years</span></div><br /><br /><br />Orioles fans can take some solace in the number of prospects that they have graduated to the Majors over the last couple of seasons, including Josh Bell, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta who all were top four prospects from last year’s rankings (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/team-21-baltimore-orioles.html">TEAM #21 – Baltimore Orioles</a>). Unfortunately, that has left this year’s list a bit thin. The top two players match up well with most any organization, but the gap to #3 is substantial; and the best of the lot appear to be quite a distance away in the lower levels. And the Orioles haven’t been helped by injuries either, as four of their top sixteen prospects from last year’s list missed significant 2010 time due to injury—something that was particularly hard on the 2009 draft class. Couple that with Matt Hobgood’s extreme over draft in 2009, and you have a pretty big hole to fill—as only Givens at #7, from that class, makes the top ten.<br /><br />Perhaps more important, is the question of long-term strategy. The Orioles have a very good nucleus of young players, as three of their starting eight and four of their top five starting pitchers are all 25yo or younger. But the Yankees and Red Sox aren’t going anywhere, anytime soon, and the Rays have an even better young nucleus. It is difficult to imagine a path for the Orioles to overcome, at least, two of the three teams that are ahead of them anytime in the next few years. With their best prospects now at the major league level, they are going to need to be able to maximize their value by determining which of the young players are future stars—and need to be locked up to long term deals, and which of the players need to be dealt for key additions that might enable them to compete with the other teams in the AL East. One such decision appears to be in the offing in 2011, as Zach Britton looks ready to join the rotation by June. If the Orioles are to succeed anytime soon, they remain a quality outfielder, middle infielder, first baseman and closer away—none of which appears to be coming from the farm system soon. There is substantial promise here, but a clear path seems to be lacking.<br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – The top four slots were relatively no brainers in 2010, so we have to go down the list a bit further. We cautioned against Hobgood, but still overrated him at #6. The best pick was likely Xavier Aver at #10, who came into the season with a .655 OPS, but played as a 20yo at Hi-A and AA and still managed to post a .723 OPS in 2010.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – You have to dig deep to find a bad one, but with Erbe’s injury placing his career in jeopardy his #6 ranking is likely to take the biggest fall.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A</span></strong><br /><br /><br />1) <strong>Manny Machado, SS</strong> -<br /><br />We don’t want to draw the obvious Alex Rodriguez comparisons—nearly identical builds, prep shortstops out of South Florida, etc—but Machado is likely the best high school ‘pure’ shortstop drafted since the Mariners drafted Rodriguez in 1993. Granted the list of high school shortstop prospects selected in the top five picks since then is not a lengthy one (essentially see Tim Beckham and the Uptons), but that doesn’t diminish Machado’s skill set, nor the fact that he played the entire 2010 season under the spotlight of carrying the label of the best prep position player available in the upcoming draft. Contact is Machado’s best skill, but he also projects to have plus-power for the shortstop position. Defensively he has good range, solid footwork, soft hands and a strong arm. If he has any weakness, it is that he likely possesses below average speed for a shortstop. Nonetheless, the ceiling for Machado is sky high and he’ll likely open 2011 in full-season ball, playing most of the season as an 18yo. If we have not made ourselves clear, this is a special talent that could move through the Minors very quickly and could fill one of those Orioles’ weaknesses as early as 2013.<br /><br /><br />2) <strong>Zach Britton, LHP</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Dominance 50; Control 56; HRrate 74; Stamina 72)<br /><br />It is unusual to find a prep pitching prospect, without a dominating fastball, that has as high a floor as Britton has carried for the last couple of seasons. That isn’t a knock against his fastball—as it is a low-90s offering with excellent movement—just a recognition that this is the complete pitching package. Nearly all of his pitches come in ‘heavy’, with his sinker being among the best in all of the minors. His refined, four-pitch arsenal has generated ground out to air out ratios of a nearly unheard of 2.81, 3.38 and 2.80 over the last three seasons. If Britton has a weakness, it is occasional struggles with command of his secondary offerings, but he still managed to take his BB/9 IP down to 3.0 in 2010 from 3.54 in 2009.<br /><br />The obvious comparison for Britton, who is unlikely to ever post huge strikeout numbers, is a left-handed version of Brandon Webb. Despite a loaded, young, Oriole rotation, we would prefer him to any of their current Major League starters—excepting possibly Matusz. After posting the #7 Performance Score in the International League (IL) in 2010, there is little left for Britton to prove in the Minors. That doesn’t mean that service time considerations won’t keep him in AAA until June, but he should become a mainstay in the Oriole rotation by sometime in early 2011 and looks like a solid bet for a productive career.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br />3) <strong>Jonathon Schoop, SS</strong> (2010 – Power 58; Discipline 78; First Base Rate 72; Speed 33)<br /><br />The drop to Schoop at #3 is a precipitous one, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t high on him. If there is one area where the Orioles are loaded, it is at the shortstop position in the lower levels. Machado is the star, but Schoop would easily assume that position in many organizations. Schoop possesses plus contact skills, but his 5 HRs and 18 doubles in 214 ABs is an indicator of eventual plus power for a middle infielder. It is the middle infield designation that may be his biggest negative. Schoop covers plenty of ground, sets up well, and has a powerful arm at shortstop, but barely 19yo, there is concern that his already below average speed will eventually force a move to third base as he matures. After watching Schoop post the #4 Performance Score in the Appalachian League (APY) in 2010—as an 18yo, we have little doubt that he can eventually hit enough to succeed at that position, but the difference is between being a league average third baseman vs. an above average offensive shortstop. Because Machado is likely to open up 2011 as the Delmarva shortstop, the Orioles will likely be forced into some decision on this as early as the upcoming season. We likely rank Schoop higher than most, but we have little doubt that there is no other prospect that follows on this list that has Schoop’s offensive upside at a premium position.<br /><br /><br />4) <strong>Xavier Avery, CF</strong> (2010 – Power 42; Discipline 39; First Base Rate 48; Speed 78)<br /><br />Easily the most athletic prospect in the system, Avery was likely rushed a bit in 2010, as he finished the year with 107 ABs in AA—as a 20yo. Still, he posted a top ten Performance score in the Carolina League (CAR) prior to that and showed tremendous promise. All of Avery’s skills are raw, and he could use a solid year at AA to refine them, but he profiles as the classic leadoff hitter with plus-plus speed. Both offensively and defensively he is still more athlete than baseball player, but we are not sure that that doesn’t make the success he has had all that more impressive. Do not misunderstand, Avery is still extremely raw, but his ceiling is that of a significant top of the order center field threat. In a perfect world, the Orioles will leave Avery in AA all season and not expect to see him in Baltimore until late 2012.<br /><br />5) <strong>L.J. Hoes, 2B</strong> (2010 – Power 35; Discipline 60; First Base Rate 76; Speed 53)<br /><br />Hoes actually produced a better Performance Score (#7) in the CAR than did Avery—primarily on the basis of excellent plate discipline and plus contact skills. While there are fewer questions with Hoes as to whether or not he will continue to hit as he progresses, he doesn’t profile well defensively. Predominantly an outfielder in high school, Hoes has worked diligently at becoming a second baseman but has yet to assuage concerns about his ability to stay there. If not, he likely ends up in left field—where he doesn’t project to hit for enough power. While he could be a league average offensive second basemen on the upside, a position switch likely results in a fourth outfielder scenario. Look for Hoes to join Avery in the Eastern League to begin 2011.<br /><br />6) <strong>Dan Klein, RHP</strong> –<br /><br />Klein, who we had rated at #95 entering the draft, was selected by the Orioles with the 85th overall pick this past June. Klein commands four average or better pitches extremely well, and with his athletic build it is not difficult to project Klein as a mid-rotation workhorse. However, Klein had shoulder surgery his sophomore year at UCLA, and has only really worked out of the bullpen since then. While his ceiling is solid, the limited workload and injury history are a concern. The Orioles will likely be cautious with Klein in 2011, starting him at Frederick on a strict pitch count. If he is unable to successfully stretch out as a starter, his ranking will take a significant hit.<br /><br />7) <strong>Mychael Givens, SS</strong> (2010 – Power 62; Discipline 64; First Base Rate 67; Speed 51)<br /><br />The Orioles second round pick in 2009 missed most of the 2010 season with a thumb injury. When he did get on the diamond, he demonstrated better offensive skills—especially discipline and contact--than we had expected prior to his being drafted. Defensively, there is little reason to not believe that his range, soft hands and strong arm (97mph as a pitcher in high school) can profile well at shortstop. However, by losing the 2010 season, Givens could use more time at Delmarva—which is likely to be home to Manny Machado. The Orioles have two choices, they could push Givens up to Frederick—which could be a struggle; or they could move him to second base at Delmarva—forming an impressive infield of Schoop, Machado and Givens. In either case, it is likely to be at least 2013 before Givens reaches Baltimore, and not before many more questions are answered.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Tyler Townsend, 1B</strong> (2010 – Power 77; Discipline 61; First Base Rate 55; Speed 33)<br /><br />Injuries played havoc with Townsend’s 2010 season, but we did see enough of him to learn a few things. First, he was clearly a ‘man among boys’ playing as a 22yo in the South Atlantic League. Second, although he hit only six home runs in 197 ABs, he blasted 21 doubles and nearly 50% of his hits went for extra bases. Finally, with a 16% strikeout rate, his plate discipline is better than expected and good enough to portend positive results as he moves up. While we would feel better about his chances if we felt he could stick in the outfield, Townsend looks to possess a strong enough bat to give him a chance to be no worse than a left-handed portion of a Major League first base or DH platoon. While he is likely to return to the Carolina League to begin 2011, Townsend appears ready to take on the challenges of AA and he could be ready for some At Bats in Baltimore in 2012.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Connor Narron, SS/2B</strong> -<br /><br />The Orioles drafted Narron in the fifth round in June and inked him to second round money despite a disappointing senior prep season. Narron’s struggles continued in his brief pro debut, begging the question of why the lofty ranking? Partly due to the weakness of the Orioles’ system and partly due to what we can envision as his ceiling, Narron slots well here. Narron is a switch hitter that has demonstrated above average offensive skills prior to 2010. While there is little reason to believe that he will stay as a middle infielder—except perhaps in a utility role—his bat is solid enough to be successful at third base, where he would become a plus defender. There isn’t ‘sky high’ ceiling here, but it isn’t difficult to see Narron as a league average Major League third baseman. In a system with as many question marks as the Orioles have, that makes him noteworthy. The expectation is that the Orioles will keep Narron in extended Spring Training before sending him to the APY—but a good spring could see him in the SAL in May. <br /><br />10) <strong>Ryan Adams, 2B</strong> (2010 – Power 62; Discipline 45; First Base Rate 52; Speed 35)<br /><br />Others have always been higher on Adams than we have, as we have difficulty envision an everyday position for him at the Major League level. Improving power numbers in 2010, where he hit 15 HRs for the first time, give Adams an outside shot of sticking at third base—or at least as a utility player. Adams is a solid ball-striker who will take a few walks. The problem has always been that he hasn’t demonstrated the requisite power to accompany his 21% strikeout rate. Given the fact that he lacks both the speed and athleticism to imagine him as an everyday infielder at the Major League level, we have never been comfortable about where he will play. We still aren’t, but we can at least consider the possibility that he could make it at third base or in left field if some of those 43 doubles begin to turn into home runs. Adams will head to AAA to begin 2011. While we still see a utility role as his likely ceiling, the probability of attaining it is getting stronger.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B -</span></strong><br /><br />11) <strong>Joe Mahoney, 1B</strong> (2010 – Power 70; Discipline 55; First Base Rate 56; Speed 63)<br /><br />We have been slow to warm to the huge Oriole first base prospect. As he didn’t even make our Oriole top fifty last year. And while we still have tremendous doubts, his #13 Performance Score in the Eastern League (ESL) in 2010 has gotten our attention—as he took his strikeout rate down from 23% to 19%. With more mobility than you would expect from a 6’7”, 245lb first baseman, and the present dearth of first base talent at the upper levels of the Oriole system, it is possible that the Orioles will give him an opportunity in Baltimore at some point in 2011. His power game will be his calling card, and we could see him as a potential power left-handed bench bat in the Majors. Look for him to return to the ESL to begin 2011—but the expectation is that he won’t finish there. <br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Matt Hobgood, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 27; Control 39; HRrate 48; Stamina 64) <br /><br />We have written plenty over the last two years about how awful a pick we found it to be when the Orioles selected Hobgood at #5 in 2009. There was a ton of unquestionably better prep pitching talent on the board at this slot and we liked at least six of them better. Nonetheless, the Orioles envisioned a significant mid-rotation workhorse in Hobgood’s 6’4”, 245lb frame. If there is one thing that we have found even more disappointing than his draft position, it has been his velocity drop and inability to strike out opposing hitters (5.6 K/9IP). His conditioning is poor, and his ‘pitchability’ has been less than impressive. Only potential, and the likelihood that the Orioles will give him ample opportunities to prove critics like us wrong keep him rated even this highly. He is likely to begin 2011 at Frederick, but he has a ton left to improve upon.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Other Top 300 Considerations</strong> – We haven’t missed anyone.<br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-72452438380331310602010-12-22T15:34:00.005-06:002010-12-22T15:49:26.041-06:00TEAM #29 – Milwaukee Brewers<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU-KTwanor1zLFk6dkDsSa6HrH5nuiLSFN3HmcKNa9__w4E7Z7PJCBYsHb8N2EWJiOl-3Pu4hrHeOTB1bqR-oNTHD3TB42lAg1ROtWtqKx17jX7CCIWo_wYIdvUg6PY1lfDzBMtiegtInB/s1600/Caleb+Gindl.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 275px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 235px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553623331691371442" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU-KTwanor1zLFk6dkDsSa6HrH5nuiLSFN3HmcKNa9__w4E7Z7PJCBYsHb8N2EWJiOl-3Pu4hrHeOTB1bqR-oNTHD3TB42lAg1ROtWtqKx17jX7CCIWo_wYIdvUg6PY1lfDzBMtiegtInB/s400/Caleb+Gindl.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:85%;">Why not Caleb Gindl as the Brewers top prospect?</span></div><p><br /><br />When the eGuide is published, it is quite likely that the Brewers will be team #30—after finishing last year at #22 (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/team-22-milwaukee-brewers.html">TEAM #22 – Milwaukee Brewers</a>). We have always used 130ABs and 50 IPs as our thresholds for inclusion on this list, but with the industry trend being to match Major League rookie levels—which have a service time component, Zach Braddock and his 34 Major League innings no longer qualify. That plus the expected confirmation that Jeremy Jeffress is the player to be named in the Greinke deal, is enough to make up the margin of difference between the Brewers and the White Sox. Now one could make the argument that the Brewers’ Minor League system will be taking the mound in Milwaukee this season in the form of Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum…but that is another story.<br /><br />Doug Melvin has taken the Kenny Williams approach to farm systems this offseason, dealing what some might argue were the top three players in the system. Couple that with failing to sign first round pick Dylan Covey, and you could be scratching your head as to what Melvin is doing to the Brewer Future. A closer look reveals tremendous shrewdness. By not signing Covey, the Brewers will receive the 16th selection in 2011, and are likely to have much more to choose from in what is shaping up to be a considerably deeper draft. While Lawrie and Odorizzi are nice prospects, they both possess enough questions (Lawrie as to his eventual position and Odorizzi on his secondary offerings) to keep them from the elite level of the prospect rankings. Jeffress and Alcides Escobar are players with baggage, and Lorenzo Cain is a low ceiling outfielder—something that the Brewers are extremely deep at. In return they receive two quality Major League starting pitchers—both with two years remaining on their contracts—and now possess a lineup and rotation capable of competing for the N.L. Central title.<br /><br />Where you have to worry if you’re a Brewers’ fan is Melvin’s ability to rebuild the system. In eight drafts since taking over as Brewer GM, Melvin has made 63 picks in the first seven rounds, twelve of them first-rounders, and ten of them who he has signed to $1 million+ bonuses. The average selection position of the first pick has been 8th. Yet the only significant pitcher produced has been Yovanni Gallardo and the list of hitters that have accumulated 250+ Major League at bats ends at: Rickie Weeks, Tony Gwyyn, jr,, Ryan Braun, Mat Gamel, Michael Brantley, Matt LaPorta and Jonathan Lucroy. The system is fraught with low-ceiling, undersized hitters, and either power pitchers with troublesome control or control pitchers with limited power. Without a significant strategical change in their draft philosophy, it is difficult to see how the situation improves. No system in the game is weaker at the top of the rankings, and it isn’t likely to improve much in the foreseeable future.<br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – Given our placement of Gindl, one could argue that his slotting at #4 was the best pick, but since the consensus opinion in the community of experts is still selling him ‘short’ (no pun intended), we will go with the slotting of Wily Peralta at #11.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – That’s easy…we believed Angel Salome could overcome his poor mechanics and succeed as a Major League backstop. We never counted on him turning into a complete ‘headcase’ who is now a marginal prospect at best.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+</span></strong><br /><br /><br />1) <strong>Caleb Gindl, OF</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 56; Discipline 63; First Base Rate 54; Speed 57)<br /><br />Admittedly, there isn’t a weaker #1 prospect in all of baseball than Gindl, but that would have been said about any player on this list—and someone has to take the top spot. Actually Gindl is a perfect top prospect for the Brewers, because he is the poster boy representative of what this system offers—namely under-sized, under-skilled ‘grinders’. Gindl has an advanced plate-approach that should allow him to make solid contact as he continues to advance. His #9 Performance Score in the Southern League (SOL) ranked just a tick below, then teammate, Brett Lawrie. Most impressively, he held his own as a 21yo in AA—something that he has been able to do at every stop of his professional career; and his once problematic strikeout rate fell to just over 15% in 2010—the lowest in his four seasons. Defensively, he is capable of manning any of the three positions, but likely profiles best as a right-fielder. While Gindl provides a solid across-the-board skill set, none of his skills standout and he is unlikely to put up the kind of power numbers that you would ideally want from a corner outfielder. That said, his offensive upside is higher than that of former Brewer farmhand Michael Brantley, who is likely to carve out a career as a solid fourth/platoon outfielder. When we watch Gindl, we are reminded of Nate McLouth. We believe Gindl is a ‘high-floor’/’low-ceiling’ prospect that should achieve a decent amount of Major League success. With the right opportunity, he could become a league-average everyday player. Expect Gindl to begin 2011 in AAA, and see Milwaukee at some point during the season.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B</span></strong><br /><br />2) <strong>Ryan ‘Scooter’ Gennett, 2B</strong> (2010 – Power 65; Discipline 65; First Base Rate 53; Speed 70)<br /><br />With above average power and contact skills for a middle infielder, Gennett would rank higher if it weren’t for a 5’9”, 165lb build. More to the point he attacks the game both in the field and at the plate, which makes him a fan favorite. In somewhat of a breakout year, 2010 ended with Gennett posting a top ten Performance Score in the Midwest League (MWL) and 2011 should find him in the Florida State League (FSL). If Gennett is to continue his march toward a potential league average second baseman, he will have to continue to hit—as his defensive skill set and speed are merely average. There isn’t a tremendously high-ceiling with Gennett, but his bat and approach should ensure that he gets the most of his natural abilities.<br /><br /><br />3) <strong>Wily Peralta, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 35; Control 38; HRrate 43; Stamina 72)<br /><br />In the ‘more of the same’ category, Peralta is another player with a limited ‘ceiling’, but a skill set that provides him with a solid shot at maxing out his abilities. Peralta played 2010 as a 21yo in the SOL, where he posted the #17 Performance Score. His out pitch is his low-to-mid 90s fastball, and he complements that with average secondary offerings. While he fights occasional bouts of control issues, there is little in his make-up that suggests he can’t become a solid middle of the rotation Major League starter. Unfortunately, there is little to suggest that he can become much more than that. At 22yo, Peralta is likely to find himself in AAA to begin the 2011 season. While the Brewer rotation appears to be set, he could find time in Milwaukee before the year is out.<br /><br /><br />4) <strong>Mark Rogers, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 62; Control 25; HRrate 72; Stamina 64)<br /><br />The former first round pick (#5 in 2004), Rogers has yet to realize his potential due to an injury-plagued professional career. Finally healthy and pitching over 100 innings for the first time since being drafted, Rogers enjoyed a solid season in the SOL. He even made a couple of starts in Milwaukee, at the end of the season, where he once-again looked solid. Rogers throws a heavy fastball that sits comfortably in the low-to-mid 90s. He complements that with a solid curve. The downside is that he really doesn’t possess a Major League quality third offering and has never really mastered the art of control. It is for these reasons that Rogers doesn’t rank higher on a thin Brewer list. Whereas Peralta looks like a solid bet to remain in the rotation, Rogers looks destined to fill a bullpen role—despite the fact that he will be given every opportunity to remain a starter. Look for Rogers to begin the 2011 in the Nashville rotation. Should the need arise, he is likely the first pitcher to be called up and looks like a certainty to spend some significant time in the Majors—we just don’t see it being in an impact role.<br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Tyler Roberts, C</strong> (2010 – Power 79; Discipline 67; First Base Rate 37; Speed 29)<br /><br />Roberts may be our favorite player on this list—and is likely the player with the highest upside. A ‘beefy’ 6’0”, 230lbs, Roberts is raw in both his offensive and defensive approaches. He possesses excellent power skills and makes surprising contact considering his long, powerful swing. There is somewhat of an all or nothing approach, however, as more than 50% of Roberts hits were for extra bases in 2010 and he possesses what could only be termed ‘base-clogging’ speed. Defensively, he possesses a powerful arm, but is often lost at times with his fundamental receiving skills. With refinement, Roberts could become a power-hitting Major League backstop, but he will be only making his full-season debut in 2011, so there is a long way from here to there.<br /><br /><br />6) <strong>Cody Scarpetta, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 64; Control 28; HRrate 67; Stamina 65)<br /><br />Speaking of ‘beefy’ players, the 22yo Scarpetta can block out the sun with the best of them. His fastball sits comfortably in the low-90s, and sets up his outpitch—a plus-plus curve. In 2010, Scarpetta rode them to a #14 Performance Score in the FSL. The downside is that Scarpetta’s change is still a work-in-process and he has made little improvement on his control that has caused him to allow more than 4.5 base-on-balls per 9IP. While the ‘ceiling’ isn’t extreme, he seems to have the makings of a solid mid-rotation innings eater. Refining that command will be the key to him achieving it. Look for Scarpetta to begin 2011 in the SOL, with a possible rotation shot when Marcum and Greinke’s contracts expire.<br /><br /><br />7) <strong>Kyle Heckathorn, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 35; Control 64; HRrate 71; Stamina 69)</p><p><br />While Heckathorn’s 2010 numbers were an improvement over his 2009 debut, they still lacked the sizzle that was expected after his collegiate career. On a pure raw stuff basis, Heckathorn’s stuff was as good as any college pitcher in the 2009 draft that wasn’t named Strasburg. He throws a heavy low-90s sinker and has a slider with plus potential. At 6’6”, he has a durable frame that one can easily envision as a solid #2/#3 Major League starter. But Heckathorn has yet to find away to dominate lower level hitters the way that a 22yo should. His change still needs considerable work and without a dominating out pitch, there are questions about whether he will ever be more than back of the rotation material. 2011 will be a huge year for Heckathorn, as he is likely to return to the FSL to start the year before making a mid-season AA debut. He needs to take a big step forward.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B-</span></strong></p><p><br /><br />8) <strong>Erik Komatsu, OF</strong> (2010 – Power 50; Discipline 75; First Base Rate 78; Speed 78)<br /><br />I easily could have copied Gindl’s write-up into this space as the stories are similar—under-sized and under-skilled. The basic difference is that Komatsu appears to have the speed to play an everyday center field and actually profiles fairly well for the position. His plate discipline skills are first-rate and like most center fielders, he displays only minimal power. Komatsu parlayed all of that into a fine 2010, as he finished with the #6 Performance Score in the FSL. The downside is that Komatsu is already 23yo and doesn’t look to have much in the way of projection remaining, so we are looking at an upside of a league average center fielder. Despite his advanced development and a strong collegiate background, Komatsu will only be getting his first taste of AA in 2011. With a repeat performance of 2010, he will play his when into legitimate prospect notoriety. Without it, we may be looking at a 4th/5th OF type.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Khris Davis, LF</strong> (2010 – Power 79; Discipline 41; First Base Rate 70; Speed 59)<br /><br />Khris and Kentrail Davis formed a solid outfield combo at Wisconsin this past summer, with Davis our slight preference of the two. Possessing plus power skills and patience enough to coax 77 walks and post a nearly .400 OBP, Davis established himself as a legitimate prospect. The downside is that Davis fanned 22% of the time—despite being a 22yo in the MWL. We liked Davis coming out of Fullerton, where he posted the #19 Performance Score in 2009. We felt the Brewers received excellent value by tabbing him in the 7th round. But we need to see Davis in a more age appropriate environment. Look for Davis to begin 2011 in the FSL, but he must reach AA by mid-season in order to continue to be viewed as a legitimate prospect. This grade is as much based on what we believe Davis is capable of as it what he has actually shown as a professional.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Kentrail Davis, OF</strong> (2010 – Power 49; Discipline 66; First Base Rate 69; Speed 51)<br /><br />Davis is easily the most athletic player on this list, and has the tools to become a potential everyday Major League centerfielder, as he makes excellent contact and possesses average speed. Power is the question mark , for the former supplemental first round pick, as he hit only three home runs in over 400 PAs as a 22yo in A-ball. While Davis currently projects as a centerfielder, there are those that worry that his compact frame (5’9”, 195lbs) will cause him to slow down as he matures—forcing a move to left field. If that happens, there is little reason to believe that he will post the requisite power for an outfield corner, thereby relegating him to a fourth outfielder role. Davis disappointed in his 2009 FSL debut—before being demoted. He will return their to open the 2011 season, as he turns 23yo mid-season, he will need to advance to AA sometime during the year to continue being considered a legitimate prospect.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Tyler Thornburg, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 79; Control 33; HRrate 48; Stamina 36)<br /><br />If we felt confident that Thornburg could actually develop a credible off-speed pitch to go with his low-90s fastball and plus-curve, he would rank higher on this list. The Brewers third round pick in June made his professional debut in the Pioneer League where he dominated the way that a 21yo should—fanning 38 in 23 innings while allowing opposing hitters to bat a mere .171 against him. That said, there isn’t a tremendous amount of projection remaining in his 5’11” frame and he currently is a two-pitch pitcher. The upside of a solid mid-rotation is there, but we are more inclined to see him as a back of the bullpen pitcher down the road. In either case, he is likely to begin 2011 in the MWL; with a stop in the FSL, before the season ends, probable.<br /><br /><br /><br />12) <strong>Hunter Morris, 1B</strong> (2010 – Power 73; Discipline 62; First Base Rate 30; Speed 57)<br />Morris’ 23 home runs at Auburn allowed him to post a top 25 Performance Score in 2010. The Brewers then selected him with their fourth round pick this past June. Power is his calling card, as it is easily his only plus-skill. While his speed may be adequate at first base, his defense is a liability almost anywhere. Morris made a solid 2010 MWL debut. While he has a tendency to fall into ruts where he pulls everything, he showed enough to believe that his bat can play at the Major League level. It will have to, as there isn’t much else to recommend. Look for Morris to begin 2011 in the FSL, with a mid-season promotion to AA in the plans.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Other Considerations for the Top 300 - Giveme a break...It was hard enough coming up with these!<br /><br /><br /><br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season. </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-39419429349085931702010-12-21T14:54:00.003-06:002010-12-21T14:57:57.407-06:00TEAM #30 – Chicago White Sox<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXNit6K-FI6hMlNZ7HiKJq6MGimXh4hgEwUr8X5CdakrWBDphJgc2qENaLyqYaF2fZVHS-FLEG8BfP-cKWqr1t-SA2oSBwwzgP3Ej4QhVkOK_jBi7F1iqBnNlkbTfwxrccyVfTXEP_dl-f/s1600/Chris+Sale.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 271px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 186px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5553241901930513138" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXNit6K-FI6hMlNZ7HiKJq6MGimXh4hgEwUr8X5CdakrWBDphJgc2qENaLyqYaF2fZVHS-FLEG8BfP-cKWqr1t-SA2oSBwwzgP3Ej4QhVkOK_jBi7F1iqBnNlkbTfwxrccyVfTXEP_dl-f/s400/Chris+Sale.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:78%;">Sorting out how to use Sale will be a major focus this spring</span></div><br /><br /><br />It is not so much that the White Sox have fallen from last year’s rankings, where they ended up at #28 in our guide (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/team-26-chicago-white-sox.html">TEAM #26 – Chicago White Sox</a>) , as much as it is that the teams that were behind them last season (the Astros and the Cardinals) have taken major steps forward. Overall, the strength of the system is presently comparable to the same time last year. While the Edwin Jackson deal did likely deprive them of a player that would have made this list (David Holmberg), the White Sox primary reason for occupying the ‘prospect basement’, despite getting Chris Sale as a steal at #13 last June, has to do with significant fall-offs from players like Tyler Flowers and Jordan Danks and the injury to Jared Mitchell. The system falls off a bit after Viciedo, and the drop accelerates rapidly after Morel. Combine that with the fact that the system has barely 2% of the nearly 1900 players that we graded ‘C’ or better this year and it becomes apparent that the ‘nearly bare cupboard’ that we described last year is becoming a problem.<br /><br />Kenny Williams has never been afraid to trade from his farm system to help his Major League club. More times than not, in the past, he has seemingly gotten the better end of this type of deal. The Peavy and Jackson deals over the last 18 months were supposed to follow that path. But with the seasons that were put together by Clayton Richard and Dan Hudson in 2010, it begs the question whether Williams now is getting caught up more in the need to make something happen than looking out for the long-term interests of the club. The answer to that should be a lot clearer after this season, because, where the Sox could have dismantled an aging team and ceded the Central division to the Twins or the Tigers, Williams has resigned Konerko (34) and Pierzynski (34) and added Adam Dunn (31). While this will buy him some time to rebuild the farm system as the White Sox make a run at the division title, it saddles him with more ‘Peavy-like’ contracts that will be difficult to move if things should head south. It is a ‘riverboat gambler’ strategy that Williams has never shied away from, but will certainly expose Williams and the White Sox to further criticism should it fail. If there is a bright side, it comes in the form of the 2010 draft that appears to rival the 2008 and 2003 drafts for strongest White Sox draft of the last ten years, with seven first year players among the Sox top thirty prospects. Sox fans could be celebrating a banner 2011 season next October, but if not the farm system isn’t likely going to ease any pain.<br /><br /><strong>Best Pick from 2010</strong> – Our 2010 assessment of the organization stands up to anyone’s, but there was nothing that particularly stands out, as we rightly tabbed Hudson as #1 and correctly placed Viciedo and Morel higher than most of the ‘experts’—while warning against Flowers and Danks.<br /><br /><strong>Worst Pick from 2010</strong> – This is pretty easy, as Sergio Santos made the transition to bullpen arm in a huge way in 2010 and he only finished #22 on our list.<br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade A<br /></span></strong><br /><br />1) <strong>Chris Sale, LHP</strong> (2010 Performance Scores– Dominance 80; Control 60; HRrate 29; Stamina 27)<br /><br />We believed Chris Sale was the best college arm available in the 2010 draft. His 2010 College Performance score trailed only Texas A&M’s Barrett Loux. So we were as shocked as the White Sox likely were when he was still available at #13. The Sox fast-tracked Sale to the Big Leagues in a relief role, and he only continued to make favorable impressions once arriving—ending the season as the team’s best option at closer. Coming out of the bullpen allowed Sale to consistently throw his fastball in the mid-90s—a few ticks higher than he had worked as a starter. The relief work also allowed him to focus on his slider—the pitch that offered greatest concerns coming into the draft. What the bullpen did not allow him to do was showcase his plus-plus change—the pitch that is the main reason why we believe that he is ideally suited for a starting role.<br /><br />At a slight 6’6”, we believe Sale could ‘beef-up’ and work in the mid-90s as a front of the rotation starter with a solid three-pitch repertoire. Unfortunately, word out of Chicago is that Sale is likely to once again find himself in the bullpen in 2011. This isn’t a two-pitch Neftali Feliz, that we advocated a bullpen role for. Therein lies the paradox with the White Sox decision to make a run at the Central division in 2011—as it likely means that Sale is the de facto closer vs. working on being a difference maker at the top of the rotation. Still just 21yo, the White Sox are unlikely to harm his development in any significant way, but this is a special arm that should be developed as such.<br /><br /><br /><br />2) <strong>Dayan Viciedo, 3B</strong> (2010 Performance Scores – Power 75; Discipline 43; First Base Rate 28; Speed 34)<br /><br />The scouting community continues to overlook the potential of Viciedo as a Major League bat. Only 21yo, Viciedo blasted 25 HRs in 343 AAA At Bats—finishing with a top ten Performance Score in the International League behind some very good hitters. More than that though, Viciedo posted an .840 OPS in 104 late season At Bats with the White Sox. This is a solid middle of the order Major League bat, with the potential for 35+ home runs, yet we were the only place that ranked Viciedo (#90) as a Top 100 talent last year and are almost surely to ranking him higher than most anyone else again this season.<br /><br />The knock on Viciedo comes in two forms: 1) a 33:166 BB:K ratio thus far as a professional and 2) a lumbering build that makes Pedro Alvarez look sleek at third base. While we don’t expect Viciedo to ever become a patient hitter, his development curve is likely to produce reasonable BB:K numbers as he matures—remember he won’t turn 22yo until just before the 2011 season. As to the defense, the downside is that he is limited to a 1B/DH role, but the bat is special enough to make that acceptable. His arm is not a question at third base, so if he can continue to make strides on his conditioning and agility, the upside is that he becomes an adequate fielding, power-hitting third basemen—something that Brent Morel is unlikely to ever become. With the re-signing of Konerko and the addition of Adam Dunn, expect Viciedo to return to AAA to begin 2011. He may be the Sox most tradeable commodity should the need arise in-season. In any case, expect a bright offensive future from Viciedo.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B+<br /></span></strong><br /><br />3) <strong>Brent Morel, 3B</strong> (2010 – Power 55; Discipline 62; First Base Rate 51; Speed 45)<br /><br />While, based on my earlier comments, it may sound like I am down on Morel; nothing could be further from the truth. We had Morel as the White Sox #4 prospect last season and he did nothing to disappoint in 2010, as the 23yo posted a top twenty Performance Score in the International League. Morel provides excellent third base defense and plus plate discipline skills. His contact skills rate as average. The problem lies in his power skills as we envision Morel’s upside to be very Joe Randa or Jeff Cirillo-ish. As we have mentioned before—‘ceiling’ trumps ‘floor’ and that would make Morel the #2 third base prospect in the organization—behind Viciedo. Fortunately for Randa—I mean Morel, Ozzie Guillen is a former shortstop who values defense and this team went into the 2010 season with Mark Teahan as their everyday thirdbaseman and played Omar Vizquel there heavily down the stretch. That translates into Morel having every opportunity to win the thirdbase job this spring. Compare him to the Marlins Matt Dominguez and we believe you will find similar hit skills—actually Dominguez has more potential with two years of development in hand, but Dominguez is a gold glove caliber defensive player—thereby providing a ceiling that matches the offensive risk. Morel’s defense is very good, but he is a high-floor prospect, whereby his glove will play in the Majors and his bat looks to be merely adequate at best. <br /><br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B<br /></span></strong><br />4) <strong>Jared Mitchell, CF</strong> –<br /><br />We were excited about Mitchell’s potential heading into the 2010 season and felt that he had true five-tool potential with a vast ‘ceiling’. That said, we expected his development curve to be somewhat slow—due to the fact that he was a two-sport college athlete. The White Sox had other ideas though and had visions of him opening the year in AA and, if the breaks went their way, patrolling the outfield in Cellular Field by September. But the breaks—namely a torn ankle tendon—went anything but their way and sidelined Mitchell for the entire season. Shaking off the rust in the Arizona Fall League, Mitchell looked extremely over-matched and now appears destined for the Carolina League to open 2011. Nothing that we said last year about Mitchell doesn’t still hold true today, but the development curve issue becomes bigger. Mitchell will be a 22yo in Hi-A to open the season and looks to be at least one and one-half years away from a Big League opportunity, meaning that he is likely to be nearly 24yo before he receives a legitimate shot. Still a huge boom or bust type prospect.<br /><br /><br />5) <strong>Eduardo Escobar, SS</strong> (2010 – Power 37; Discipline 59; First Base Rate 39; Speed 51)<br /><br />While Escobar was on our radar screen last year (#13 White Sox prospect), he did not truly open eyes until his AZFL play this fall where he showed dazzling glove work and posted a top ten Performance Score. Escobar’s glove has never been in doubt, as he has good range, soft hands and a quick release. What has changed is a true breakout with the bat, as Escobar came into the season with a career .648 OPS and posted a .709 OPS as a 21yo between Hi-A and AA. With continued improvements at the plate, we can imagine a plus shortstop defender with an Omar Infante-esque bat. That is an above average Major Leaguer for the position. Expect Escobar to return to Birmingham to begin 2011 and he could be ready for a Major League job sometime in 2012.<br /><br /><br />6) <strong>Trayce Thompson, OF</strong> (2010 – Power 75; Discipline 26; First Base Rate 29; Speed 46)<br /><br />Thompson remains more promise than production at this point, but we were adequately pleased with his injury-plagued 2010. Plus-power remains his top skill, but he combines that with average speed and solid outfield defense. The downside remains patience at the plate, as he whiffed 30% of the time in 2009 and now has done so 32% of the time as a pro. That said, he played in full-season ball as a 19yo and encouraging signs are there. What Thompson needs at this stage is time to develop. The White Sox should provide that by returning him to the South Atlantic League (SAL) in 2011. While he remains a considerable way off, his potential is as high as most anyone’s in the organization.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade B-<br /></span></strong><br />7) <strong>Jacob Petricka, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 73; Control 63; HRrate 68; Stamina 64)<br /><br />The White Sox selected Petricka in the second round last June—right about where his pre-draft ratings placed him. With a frame that could hold more weight, Petricka is likely to pitch in the mid-90s with his fastball. While he has potentially adequate secondary offerings that will allow the White Sox to try to develop him as a starter, his upside there is not as high as it would be coming out of the pen where he could excel toward the back of a Major League bullpen. That is not the type of profile that you would like to see quite this high on the list, but there is a reason why the White Sox are ranked at #30. Look for Petricka to open 2011 in the Carolina League.<br /><br /><br />8) <strong>Brandon Short, OF</strong> (2010 – Power 62; Discipline 52; First Base Rate 48; Speed 64)<br /><br />It was a breakout season for Short, who entered the year as the organization’s #19 prospect. Short posted an .856 OPS in nearly 500 Carolina League (CAR) at bats, where he finished with the League’s #22 Performance Score. While he displayed average skills across the board in 2010, Short still lacks patience at the plate—something that is likely to be exploited at upper levels. Defensively he covers above average ground, but lacks arm-strength. This is his biggest potential negative, because he is unlikely to be able to stay in Centerfield as he matures and is unlikely to display typical corner outfield power. 2011 will be critical for Short, as his lack of patience will receive a real test at AA.<br /><br /><br />9) <strong>Andre Rienzo, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 76; Control 53; HRrate 59; Stamina 70)<br /><br />Despite this being the fourth year in the organization, it is the first year that Rienzo has made us believe that he was anything more than an oddity—namely being a Brazilian-born professional. His 125:32 K:BB ratio in 101 SAL innings was good enough to earn Rienzo a top twenty Performance Score in 2010—besting his #30 DSL ranking in 2008. Rienzo uses a low-mid 90s fastball to key a relatively well-developed three-pitch repertoire. He carries his velocity deep into games, and looks like a potential back of the rotation starter. While we don’t see a tremendously high-ceiling, Rienzo was a bright spot in 2010 for an organization that had few in its prospect ranks. Look for him to spend 2011 in the Carolina League.<br /><br /><br />10) <strong>Tyler Flowers, C</strong> (2010 – Power 72; Discipline 21; First Base Rate 41; Speed 38)<br /><br />Little has changed in the way of our assessment of Flowers, except that another year has been removed from the calendar and the White Sox, through the Pierzynski signing, have indicated that they aren’t ready to turn over the everyday job to him. Flowers still has good power, and draws a fair amount of walks, but he also still strikes out way too often and is only marginal behind the plate. There are worst skill sets on display as Major League backstops, so we still expect Flowers to get a Big League shot, but we remain skeptical of Flower’s chances of Major League success. He will return to Charlotte to begin 2011.<br /><br /><br />11) <strong>Greg Infante, RP</strong> (2010 -Dominance 64; Control 40; HRrate 77; Stamina 25)<br /><br />When your top 12 prospect list contains three probable bullpen arms, it speaks enormously of the quality of your organizational strength. That is where the White Sox find themselves as the final two names are both relievers. The White Sox used Infante exclusively out of the pen in 2010—for the first time, and he seems to have found a home, as he began the year in Hi-A and finished it in the Majors. An extreme groundball inducer, Infante pitches off of a mid-to-high 90s heater. His secondary offerings are nothing special and he can struggle with control at times, but he allowed no home runs in 65 innings of work in 2010. The White Sox have created opportunities in their 2011 bull pen, and it would not surprise us to see Infante become the 2011 version of Sergio Santos. This is not a player with an especially high upside, but he looks certain to have a Big League chance.<br /><br /><br /><strong><span style="font-size:130%;">Grade C+<br /></span></strong><br />12) <strong>Addison Reed, RHP</strong> (2010 – Dominance 79; Control 69; HRrate 71; Stamina 32)<br /><br />The White Sox selected Reed in the third round this past June and got decent value for the pick as Reed was one of the more accomplished college arms available—posting a top twenty Performance Score. The White Sox are said to be developing Reed as a starter, but we feel confident that if he is to reach the Majors, it will be in a bullpen role. The problem is that none of Reed’s raw stuff is spectacular. In the pen, he can deliver a mid-90s fastball that becomes a low 90s offering in a starting role. His curve is merely average, and his change would best be described as developing. In college he succeeded on guile, but he will need more than that to succeed in the pros. Our best guess is that he begins 2011 in the Kannapolis rotation.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><strong>Other Top 300 Candidates</strong> – You have got to be kidding me!<br /><br /><br /><br /> <br />Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.<br /><br />You can find an explanation of our grades here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/11/diamond-futures-annual-prospect.html">Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series</a> and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season.<br /><br /><div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-48372501017795824242010-12-20T11:52:00.004-06:002010-12-20T12:00:47.479-06:00Albert Pujols, Omar Infante and the 2011 Prospect Evaluations<div align="center"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyJq9gd1_P8-GGl96u_oDPKh2Yw5c9SM56SpqOg52X5SOPGG7BAEOsyH2pZb_rkPmfB6wMrPxT9QfCcO6PSv4HZjiNwQNU1-X6dk19Ksjqqpio8FlzxxifchzgURpB3634aU7sr2I68I4h/s1600/Omar+Infante.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 276px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 183px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5552824027587442546" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyJq9gd1_P8-GGl96u_oDPKh2Yw5c9SM56SpqOg52X5SOPGG7BAEOsyH2pZb_rkPmfB6wMrPxT9QfCcO6PSv4HZjiNwQNU1-X6dk19Ksjqqpio8FlzxxifchzgURpB3634aU7sr2I68I4h/s400/Omar+Infante.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-size:78%;">How many Omar Infantes would it take to equal one Albert Pujols?</span></div><br /><br />This year is sort of an anniversary for us. It was ten years ago this off-season that I developed what I called ‘Peak Performance Analysis’ and began incorporating it into my prospect evaluations. At the time it was a relatively crude system that used an ‘aging’ formula on normalized Minor League data to project a player’s performance over their 27, 28 and 29yo seasons. At the time, I was the lead writer for a now-defunct prospect website and one of my readers was starting a prospect web-site and published the entire 27yo projections for nearly 500 players using this formula. I have no idea if that site is still around, but I was having a discussion the other day that caused me to go back and look at that ten year old data.<br /><br />As regular readers are aware, the foundational philosophy for our prospect analysis is the notion of what value a player is likely to produce over his career. While it isn’t quite this straightforward, the concept of expected career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is the metric we use to operationalize ‘value’. This is relevant, because the discussion I was having had to do with Albert Pujols and Omar Infante—both players that we rated higher than anyone else on our Top 300 list ten years ago (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/02/diamond-futures-retrospective-our-2001.html">Diamond Futures’ Retrospective: Our 2001 Top 100</a>). Essentially the discussion centered around these players of the same age and their relative trade values. If Albert Pujols is going to produce approximately 8.0 WAR in each of the next few seasons and Omar Infante is going to produce 2.0 WAR, then are four Omar Infantes equal to one Albert Pujols? Before I get to the discussion, remember that prior to the 2001 season, Pujols had just finished his 21yo season with 490 professional ABs and only 14 of them above A-ball…Infante had finished his 19yo season and had then amassed 404 ABs—with none above A-ball. Here were our age 27-29yo projections for them (with actual 27-29yo results for Pujols and 26-28yo results for Infante):<br /><br /><strong>Albert Pujols<br /></strong>Age: 22<br />Rank: #9<br />AB – 1623 (1657)<br />R – 310 (323)<br />H – 537 (558)<br />2B – 130 (127)<br />3B – 6 (2)<br />HR – 111 (116)<br />RBI – 384 (354)<br />SB – 5 (25)<br />BB – 234 (318)<br />K – 200 (176)<br />AVG - .331 (.337)<br />OBP - .416 (.444)<br />SLG - .623 (.626)<br />OPS – 1.039 (1.069)<br />WAR – 26.8 (27.1)<br /><br /><strong>Omar Infante<br /></strong>Age: 20<br />Rank: #79<br />AB – 1155 (991)<br />H – 181 (134)<br />2B – 55 (48)<br />3B – 6 (7)<br />HR – 13 (13)<br />RBI – 140 (114)<br />SB – 15 (9)<br />BB – 96 (70)<br />K – 152 (134)<br />AVG - .304 (.309)<br />OBP - .357 (.354)<br />SLG - .395 (.411)<br />OPS - .752 (.765)<br />WAR – 6.9 (5.8)<br /><br />Both players, given their experience levels—and thereby the associated risk to achieve these projections—had similar beta values. While Infante is a bit light in the playing time component, it is quite probable that once his 26yo season is replaced with his 29yo season, after this upcoming year, that both of these projections will turn out to be remarkably accurate. But the key thing is that consistent 4:1 WAR ratio between the two players. Once again, are four Omar Infantes equal to one Albert Pujols?<br /><br />Looking at the question in a different way, who was the better player Howard Johnson, with 225 HRs, two all-star appearances and three MVP top 10 finishes; or Mark Grudzielanik and his 90 career HRs? Career WAR values 25.0 to 24.3. How about Carlos Lee, with 331 HRs and four all-star appearances or Bernard Gilkey with 118 HRs and no all-star games? Career WAR values 20.5 to 21.4. Therein lies the problem with a WAR approach to prospect analysis. Our contention is that there exists no number of Omar Infantes that would ever be of equal value to Albert Pujols, because 'Pujols-like' upside can only be valued against players with similar upside—which are obviously extremely rare.<br /><br />Despite being able to objectively quantify most every aspect of our prospect analysis, we still have not been able to satisfactorily develop a single objective measure of prospect value. While you can read about our approach here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/06/do-it-yourself-understanding.html">Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation</a> and here <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/12/this-weeks-mailbag-prospect-rankings.html">This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions</a>, in the end we objectively evaluate a player along two distinct dimensions—a player’s expected peak performance value and the certainty of them achieving it. Then we have to take these two objective measures and subjectively determine a value for the combination of the two. Without a lengthy discussion of vector analysis and vector magnitude the problem may not be entirely clear. However, where it relates to our prospect analysis is that we give more relative weight to a player’s upside than we do the certainty of them reaching it. In the end we produce a distribution of expected career WAR values, that lean more heavily to upside. So keep that in mind when you read our prospect rankings over the next two months. The other thing to keep in mind is that, as demonstrated above, we are very comfortable in projecting younger players at the lower levels of the minors. As you can see in this three part analysis of our last year rankings (<a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/10/how-did-we-do-trying-to-make.html">How Did We Do? Trying to Make a Quantitative Assessment of a Subjective Topic</a> ; <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/10/how-did-we-do-trying-to-make_20.html">How Did We Do? Trying to Make a Quantitative Assessment of a Subjective Topic (part II)</a> ; <a href="http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/10/how-did-we-do-trying-to-make_21.html">How Did We Do? Trying to Make a Quantitative Assessment of a Subjective Topic (part III)</a> ) it gives us a leg up on the competition. The result is that while you will read about players like Fabio Martinez-Mesa, Adrian Salcedo and Oswaldo Arcia in other places this year, we were already talking about them last year.<br /><br />As to what you can expect in regards to our prospect lists, beginning tomorrow we will be posting approximately four teams per week. We will do this in reverse order of organizational strength—just like last year. So over the next two months, you will receive our team-by-team lists for all thirty teams, culminating with our top 300 list in mid-February. Our grading scale is unchanged. We begin with a list of over 5000 Minor League players and winnow that list down to the 2000 players or so that we truly consider to be legitimate Major League prospects. The top 1% of Minor League players earn a grade of ‘A’. The next 1% earn a grade of ‘A-‘ and the third 1% earn a ‘B+’. Prospects that fall in the 4th thru 6th percentile earn a grade of ‘B’ and the 7th thru 10th percentile earn a ‘B-‘.<br /><br />There are some changes from last year. First, due to our compressed time frame this year, our focus is on the Prospect eGuide (more on the guide in the coming weeks). On the site, you will get write-ups for the top twelve prospects for each team plus a listing of any other players that are considerations for the top 300 list. You will have to purchase the eGuide for more in-depth analysis. Second, we are adding more retrospective analysis on each team’s prospect ‘risers’ and ‘fallers’ from last year’s list. Finally, although you will have to purchase the guide to really take advantage of it, one of the biggest changes to the guide this year is some new metrics that we have developed on ‘organizational’ performance. We hope you will enjoy the content. <br /><br /><div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5543147069031415376.post-37403472479708427702010-12-12T11:59:00.002-06:002010-12-12T12:01:15.365-06:00What You Can Expect Over the Next Two Months<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0euCvBvrDoQqraDQLrFFTxlUudX96g-KeOU7GHccGy0SXHZ_Ydi0Rsr2ndALJpWXaqKLkp8ayRRjxItk1JX8BjPJhvQ5X0qo7FMSpC0qDmd4_k5T2rxOnU0RHoMD6C6HBUkP-zxukruNa/s1600/coming+soon.jpg"><img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 299px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 225px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5549857261072379058" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0euCvBvrDoQqraDQLrFFTxlUudX96g-KeOU7GHccGy0SXHZ_Ydi0Rsr2ndALJpWXaqKLkp8ayRRjxItk1JX8BjPJhvQ5X0qo7FMSpC0qDmd4_k5T2rxOnU0RHoMD6C6HBUkP-zxukruNa/s400/coming+soon.jpg" /></a><br /><div> </div><div>Just a quick update. We are finishing up our player career trajectories and ranking the organizational values. Once that is complete (Tuesday or Wednesday), we will begin our team-by-team prospect analysis. The Prospect e-Guide is on track for an early February release and it will have a few interesting twists this year that you aren’t likely to find anywhere else.</div><div><br />Beginning next week (the week of December 20th), we will begin posting, in reverse organizational strength, approximately 4-5 teams per week over the following seven weeks. This puts us on target for a release of our Top 300 prospects (for those of you who don’t buy the guide) around the middle of February. </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0