Hots and Nots - June 17, 2009

Posey is making the California League look easy these days

This week’s list has repeaters at the top of both our ‘Pitcher’ and Not’ lists and a ‘Hitter’ list that is dominated by Hi-A players, but the name at the top was the 5th overall pick last June, who isn’t finding California League (CAL) pitching to be much of a challenge.

Hot Hitters –

1) Buster Posey, C, SFG – Memo to Brian Sabean: While we accept that Catchers require more Minor League seasoning than any other position, and we are in no hurry to see Buster Posey rushed, the time has undoubtedly arrived for a promotion to Connecticut. Posey has nothing left to prove in San Jose and, worse yet, he is being completely pitched around in the current lineup. Through May, Posey was walking once every 11 ABs. As CAL pitchers have determined that they can’t get him out, that number has moved to once every 4 ABs for the month of June. Over the last two weeks Posey has destroyed CAL pitching to the tune of .424/.558/.758, and now has a .970 OPS on the year.

2) Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK – Weeks missed the first month of the season with some nagging injuries, but has quickly made up for lost time. Over his last 55 PAs, Weeks has posted a .444/.537/.711 and has a 1.134 OPS on the year.

3) Tyson Gilles, OF, SEA – Gilles has been on the Mariner radar for a couple of seasons, after being signed as a draft and follow in 2006. The breakout season that the Mariners have been waiting for, appears to have arrived, as the 20yo Gilles has hit .488/.523/.732 over the last two weeks and has upped his OPS to .934 on the year. Not likely to maintain the range to man CF in the Majors, Gilles will have to continue to show power if he is to become more than a 4th OF type.

4) Ike Davis, 1B, NYM – After going homerless in 215 New York-Penn (NYP) League ABs in his 2008 debut, and getting off to a slow start this year, Mets’ fans were beginning to wonder what happened to that power hitting first basemen they had drafted last June. Have no fear, as Davis is beginning to show that stroke he used with such success at Arizona State. .324/.410/.765 over the last two weeks, Davis now has belted five home runs in his last 13 games.

5) Wilson Ramos, C, MIN – Ramos got off to his traditional slow start, batting .257/.284/.329 in April. As the weather has warmed, so has Ramos’ bat. A .400/.417/.714 over the last two weeks, leaves his OPS at .770 for the year.

6) Moises Sierra, OF, TOR – Signed as a 17yo out of the Dominican Republic in 2005, Sierra, along with Joehrmyn Chavez, Gustavo Pierre and Balbino Fuyenmayor, makes up the center piece of the Jays burgeoning efforts in Latin America. Entering the year, with three seasons behind him, he hasn’t posted the type of numbers the Jays had hoped for, but 2009 is beginning to look like a breakout season. Sierra has posted a .383/.473/.596 over the last two weeks and now sports an .835 OPS in the Florida State (FSL) League.

7) Caleb Gindl, OF, MIL – It’s tough to get excited about a 5’9” Corner Outfielder, but after leading the Pioneer (PIO) League with a .372 average in 2007, Gindl posted impressive offensive numbers in the SAL last season—as a 19yo. After a .306/.404/.633 performance in his last 60 PAs, Gindl now has an .842 OPS in the FSL. This is a ‘character’ guy that will have to prove himself at each step, but he is certainly one to keep an eye on.

8) Thomas Neal, OF, SFG – Coming back from 2007 reconstructive shoulder surgery, the Giants kept Neal under wraps last season, having him spend most of the year as Villalona’s caddy in Augusta. Seemingly completely healed, Neal has been turned loose this year and the CAL pitchers are paying the price. A .455/.500/.939 over the last two weeks, gives Neal a 1.055 OPS on the year. Neal is not athletic and will be limited to LF or 1B as he moves up. He will have to continue to rake in order to have a shot at the Major League level.

9) Willie Cabrera, OF, ATL – Cabrera was a 2005 Draft and Follow by the Braves, who has struggled to put up the kind of numbers that the Braves would have hoped for. Now a 22yo in his 4th season, Cabrera is trying to turn things around. A .400/.471/.622 over his last 45 ABs.

10) Dustin Ackley, CF, SEA – The Mariners’ 1st round choice (#2 overall) last week, Ackley was the most polished hitter in college this past season. Big players play big in big games, and Ackley is no exception. In 10 post season games this year, Ackley has put a .511/.569/.911 with 5 home runs.

Hot Pitchers –

1) Travis Wood, RHP, CIN – Rarely do we see a player top the ‘Hot’ list for two weeks in a row, but after last week’s list came out, Wood threw a 7 inning shutout where he allowed but two baserunners and fanned nine, and therefore finds himself atop the list again. Wood has now tossed 25 straight scoreless innings and has only allowed 2 runs in his last 36. During that time he has a 34:4 K:BB ratio.

2) James McDonald, RHP, LAD – McDonald started the season in the Dodger rotation, but struggled in 4 big league starts. He was sent down in mid-May and didn’t find things much better in Albuquerque, as he had a 5.51 ERA through his first four starts there. He has seemingly turned things around though, posting a 1.89 ERA, 0.789 WHIP and a 28:6 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks. The Dodgers are still in need of a fifth starter, so don’t be surprised to see him recalled shortly.

3) Jose Ortegano, LHP, ATL – Signed by the Braves as a 16yo in 2003, Ortegano has spent five seasons with the organization, with little fanfare—despite having a career ERA under 3.00. The biggest knock on Ortegano is that he is somewhat of a ‘soft tosser’ with limited upside. Nonetheless, he continues to post solid numbers. A 21yo in the Carolina (CAR) League, Ortegano has posted a 1.15 ERA, a 0.638 WHIP and a 12:3 K:BB ratio over his last three starts, leaving him with a 3.81 ERA on the year.

4) Alex Torres, LHP, LAA – One of the best lefties in the Angels Organization, Torres had a breakout 2008, when he held his own in 10 CAL starts—as a 20yo. A Return to Rancho Cucamonga this year, has produced more of the same. Torres has posted a 0.42 ERA, a 0.750 WHIP, with a 18:5 K:BB ratio over his last three starts and now sports a 3.03 ERA on the season. Torres, still lacks a true third pitch at this point, and will be destined for the bullpen if he can’t find one.

5) Joe Paterson, LHP, SFG – Selected in the 10th round in the 2007 draft, Paterson has pretty much been lights out in two-plus professional seasons. It’s difficult for relievers to make this list, but Paterson has not allowed an earned run in 13 innings, nor has he allowed an earned run in 23 of his 24 appearances on the season. Over the last two weeks, the 23yo, has a 0.652 WHIP and a 10:3 K:BB ratio.

6) Chris Withrow, RHP, LAD – The 20yo Withrow was the 20th overall selection in the 2007 draft. The Dodgers loved his athleticism and a mid-90s fastball. Unfortunately, nagging arm injuries have caused him to miss all but 13 innings since being drafted. Seemingly healthy, the Dodgers have challenged Withrow with a CAL assignment. Withrow has responded, posting a 1.64 ERA and a .909 WHIP over the last two weeks, giving him 63 Ks in 52 IPs on the season. Due to Withrow’s ‘rust’ from not pitching much the last two seasons, he is still struggling with control—allowing nearly 5 BB per 9IP. If he gets the control problems ironed out, look for Withrow to take off.

7) Trey Haley, RHP, CLE – Haley was given first round money by the Indians, despite being a second round pick in the 2008 draft. Signing late, Haley threw only 2 innings last year. The Indians like his low- to mid-90s fastball and his very projectable 6’3” frame. Still just 18yo, the Indians kept him in extended Spring training before moving him to Lake County in mid-May. Over his last three starts, Haley has posted a 2.51 ERA, and a 0.907 WHIP. Haley has struggled with his command for most of the season, though does have his velocity up, consistently in the mid-90s. His arm is lively, but he still needs to learn to become a ‘pitcher’.

8) Nick Schmidt, LHP, SDP – Schmidt is a holdover from last week’s list and, at the moment, the 23yo is overpowering Midwest (MWL) League hitters. He needs to move up to find a more age appropriate challenge, but for now is humming along. A 0.53 ERA, a 0.765 WHIP , with a 19:5 K:BB ratio over his last three starts.

9) Zach Phillips, LHP, TEX – A draft and follow from the 2004 draft, the 22yo Phillips is in his second season with Bakersfield, after spending three seasons in Clinton. After a rough trip the first time, Phillips seems to have things figured out this time around. A 0.90 ERA and a 0.400 WHIP with a 11:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves Phillips with a 1.43 ERA on the year. Opposing hitters are batting .128 against him on the year.

10) Alexander Perez, RHP,CLE – Another holdover from last week’s list, the 19yo Perez has been one of the season’s biggest prospect movers. A 2.25 ERA, 0.750 WHIP with a 11:3 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, has Perez sporting a 2.88 ERA on the year.

The Nots –

1) Greg Halman, OF, SEA – One of the most disappointing seasons by any player continues. Halman entered the year as the Mariners’ top prospect. He now has only 1 XB hit over his last 63 ABs and is striking out in 44% of his PAs. Over the last two weeks, Halman has posted a .097/.125/.129 and his OPS is now down to .648 on the year.

2) Zach Putnam, RHP, CLE – The Indians made Putnam their 5th round selection in last June’s draft. With a mere 33 innings of professional experience under his belt, the Tribe decided his future lie as a reliever and promoted the 21yo to AA. Perhaps they are going to rethink the plan. In 11 relief appearances, Putnam has a 5.79 ERA and a 1.554 WHIP.

3) Brad Emaus, 2B, TOR – Emaus has been a fringy prospect since the Jays made him their 11th round pick in 2007. He got off to a solid start, and through May had an .820 OPS. June hasn’t been so kind, as Emaus has a .118/.151/.196 since the 1st of June.

4) Emmanuel Burris, SS, SFG – Burris technically used up his ‘prospect’ designation early last season, but we are including him here because he has never stopped playing like a Minor Leaguer. There is not a worse offensive player in the Major Leagues today, and I can’t figure out why the Giants continue to waste ABs on this guy. Burris has posted a .069/.100/.103 over the last two weeks, which has dropped his OPS to .559 on the season. This guy doesn’t belong in baseball—yet alone the Majors.

5) Jason Berken, RHP, BAL – Berken is a curious case, as 5 solid AAA starts earned him a promotion to the Majors and his first two big league starts left him with a 2.25 ERA. The wheels have fallen off since then. Berken has a 15.26 ERA and a 2.478 WHIP over the last two weeks. In three previous Minor League seasons Berken has posted solid, but not spectacular, numbers and has typically been a bit older than we would like to see for his level of competition. The Orioles have Troy Patton, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz in the minors—all better prospects than Berken. I can’t help but feel his Major League days are drawing to a close.

6) James Skelton, C, ARZ – Skelton was a Rule 5 pickup from the Tigers system, that the Diamondbacks liked enough to work out a deal to keep him this Spring. It was a curious move to me, as Skelton doesn’t have tremendous defensive skills and doesn’t profile, offensively, as an everyday player at any position. This season in the Southern League has exposed his offensive deficiencies, as a .034/.152/.034 over the last two weeks, leaves him with a .575 OPS on the year. Skelton hasn’t had an XBH since May 25th.

7) Shelby Ford, 2B, PIT – Another repeater from last week, Ford is .139/.205/.139 over his last 40 PAs, with his OPS falling to .434 on the year. The Pirates had planned on Ford being Freddy Sanchez’s replacement as early as next year. It looks like they might want a new plan.

8) Kyle Winters, RHP, FLA – The 22yo Winters was ‘lights out’ in 5 FSL, earning a promotion to the Southern League, where things have been a little more challenging. A 9.00 ERA, 2.375 WHIP and a 4:5 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves his Southern League ERA at 5.40.

9) Wendell Fairley, OF, SFG – Fairley is a 2008 first round draft pick and is only 21yo. Usually a player with that record is given plenty of chances before being declared a ‘bust’…normally. After posting a .725 OPS in the Arizona League last summer, he has followed that up with a .598 OPS in the SAL this year. A .114/.205/.200 over the last two weeks, just further states the obvious—Fairley will never hit enough to become a successful Major League player.

10) Robert Fish, LHP, LAA – Fish is one of those players that has put up solid numbers in three professional seasons, striking out more than a batter per IP, but doesn’t have sound enough mechanics to believe he will succeed as he moves up the ladder. That lack of success apparently has found him this season in the CAL, as opposing hitters are batting .325 against him. A 8.22 ERA, 2.348 WHIP and a 6:5 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, boosts his ERA to .659 on the season.

Around the Bases - June 16, 2009

How much longer will it be before this 20yo joins the Giant rotation?

Icing on the cake…
Putting the finishing touches to what has been an outstanding collegiate career, the #2 overall pick in last week’s draft, by the Mariners, Dustin Ackley, went 5 for 6 with a double and a walk in North Carolina’s elimination game win. In the process Ackley set an NCAA record for career College World series (CWS) hits, and raised his CWS average to .576 this year. Perhaps most impressive was the quality of At Bats, as he repeatedly fouled off tough pitches until he got his pitch to hit into holes vacated by frustrated Southern Miss fielders.

Somewhat unexpected…
24yo Rickey Romero added a 7 inning, 3ER, 6 Hit, 2 BB, 9K performance to what is becoming an excellent Major League debut. Romero now has a 3.73 ERA on the year.

The problem with young pitchers…
22yo Chris Volstad put up a phenomenal 2.88 ERA in his debut season in 2008, but young pitchers have their ups and downs. Volstad had three straight quality starts in late May but last night’s 3 2/3 Inning, 8 ER, 9 hit, 2 BB performance was his second straight abysmal outing.

I guess you call this a roll…
24yo Felix Hernandez tossed a complete game, 2 Hit, 4 BB, 6 K, shutout against the Padres to lower his ERA to 2.77 on the year. In his last 4 starts, Hernandez has pitched 29 innings and allowed a total of three earned runs.

Winning for the little guys…
24yo, diminutive, left-handed reliever Danny Herrera tossed 3 scoreless frames, allowing 2 base runners, dropping his ERA on the season to 1.69. In case you haven’t had a chance to see him this season, Herrera stands 5’6” and weighs 165lbs.

Ugly line of the night…
Take your pick between Christian Santana of the Rangers and Brian McFall of the Royals, as they both fanned in all 4 trips to the plate last night.

Starting to heat up…
19yo Braves’ prospect, Freddie Freeman, got off to a somewhat slow start in the Carolina League this year. Freeman now has hit in six straight games and 11 of his last 12, including going 3 for 6 with 2 HRs in last night’s double header.

Mr. All or Nothing…
22yo Pedro Alvarez hasn’t quite gotten off to the professional debut that he had hoped for, but he does lead the Carolina league with 55 RBIs. It’s his contact rate that is currently holding him back as he is batting .233 with 65 strikeouts. Alvarez belted 2 more home runs last night, giving him 14 on the year, but has only 4 hits in his last 20 ABs—all home runs of course.

Minor League hitter of the day…
Goes to the Cubs’ Kyler Burke, as the 21yo went 3 for 3, with a home run and a walk. For the season, Burke has an .835 OPS in the Midwest League.

Where did this come from…
As a supplemental first round pick in 2005, 22yo Angels’ right-hander, Trevor Bell, isn’t exactly a sleeper. But at four levels in his previous experience heading into the season, Bell has never had an ERA lower than 3.50 or an average against less than .261. Last night Bell made his AAA debut, tossing a complete game shutout, allowing only two baserunners. At two levels this season, Bell has a 1.97 ERA and opposing hitters are batting .199 against him.

Seems to have righted the ship…
21yo Rockies’ Right-hander, Julio Chacin, went 7 1/3 innings, allowing 2 runs, 2 hits and a walk while fanning 10. After allowing 7 Earned Runs in his first start of the year, Chacin has a 2.41 ERA and has fanned 55 in 56 innings.

Pitching performance of the day…
We’ll give it to the Phillies’ 23yo Aussie, Drew Naylor, who tossed 7 shutout innings, allowing 4 hits, and fanning 9.

Making it look easy…
With Lincecum and Cain in the rotation, being a Giant pitching fan has to be easy. It may even get a whole lot easier before the season’s end, because 20yo Tim Alderson is destroying Eastern League (ESL) hitters. Alderson tossed 7 shutout innings yesterday, allowing 2 hits and 2 walks, while fanning 5. Through 39 2/3 ESL innings, Alderson has a 1.82 ERA, a 0.958 WHIP and a 34:4 K:BB ratio.

Do-It-Yourself: When Is a Prospect A Prospect?

There are a number of things, in addition to the statistics, that go into the making of a Prospect

Last week we published our Division I Performance Evaluations. At the time, we told you that, while they had a high degree of correlation to future success, they were not Prospect Evaluations. Today I’d like to touch on that topic a little further.

At Diamond Futures, our approach to Prospect Evaluation is a three step approach. Step 1 is our current state assessment, or what we call Performance Evaluations. What we do at this step is we take every player’s data for a particular period of time (usually a full-season), normalize the data for the park, and then calculate a score based on the five variables that we have found to be most significant (see last week’s Do-It-Yourself for more in-depth information): Age, Power, Average, Strike Zone Judgment and Speed for Hitters and Age, Dominance, Control, Stamina and HR rate for Pitchers. Once we plug that into our formulas we come up with a Performance Rating that is then normalized for Level of Play. It is a very straightforward process, completely systemized and all science (statistics actually). We know that from a full-season’s worth of data, that our formulas will yield a correlation coefficient in the high .40’s with future Major league success. We can tell you from that one number, and on just one season’s worth of data, the probability of that player ever achieving Major League success. At Diamond Futures we perform most of this analysis from the previous season in September and October and publish League by League ratings similar to our NCAA Division I ratings.

Step 2 is our comparative data analysis. Here we use the same statistical variables, but we combine the one year’s worth of normalized data with the data from every year of a player’s professional or collegiate career. We then add to that, things like birth month, height and weight data and their progression, handedness, defensive fielding information, country of origin, age at signing, signing bonus/draft position, etc. We take that information and compare it to our 12,000 player historical database and find the most similar players. From this we are able to not only forecast the player’s probability of success, but we can apply finer gradations to the actual level of future success. Again, it is a relatively straight forward process, completely systemized and all science.

Then we get to Step 3. While the first two steps are pure science, Step 3 is where the ‘art’ enters in. With the first two steps we can tell you what the probabilities are that a certain player will achieve success or how many players from a similar group will succeed, it is Step 3 that allows us to hone in on the other factors that we can’t pick up from our statistical analysis. Occasionally, Step 3 allows us to rank someone slightly higher than their numbers would otherwise suggest, but more often than not, we use Step 3 to drop players. Think of Step 3 as the pieces of information that would otherwise have been gleaned from traditional scouting methods. At Diamond Futures, we focus on essentially six areas. These are the areas that, once the ‘numbers’ highlight a player, we feel are the differentiators in “making a prospect a prospect.”

The first area is Age. While we use Age extensively in Steps 1 and 2, we can’t overstate the significance of age vs. the level of competition. 25yo Robinson Chirnos, may be posting a 1.116 OPS in the Florida State League, where the average age is approximately 23.5, but that doesn’t make him a prospect. While I like James Darnell, and do think he is a legitimate prospect, a 22yo with a .985 OPS in the Midwest League, where the average age is a tad over 22, doesn’t get me excited. By the same token, 17yo Jefry Marte, sitting with a .574 OPS in the South Atlantic League, isn’t really a case for concern. We have done some research and have found that over the last fifty years, approximately 70% of players that play in the Major Leagues, make their debut before their 25th birthday. Furthermore, those that debut before 25 have about a 38% chance of putting together 3 seasons or more where their performance is at or above Major League average. For the post-25’s, the odds drop to 8%. When you look at players that amass 5 seasons or more, at or above league average, the contrast is even sharper—29% to 4%. In other words, a player that debuts prior to turning 25 has a 7-8 times greater chance of having Major League success. If you figure that a standard Minor League progression is one level per year, and the goal is to reach the Majors before he turns 25, then we want prospects that are 24 or younger at AAA, 23 or younger at AA, 22 or younger at Hi-A, and 21 or younger in Lo-A. If you are older than those targets you have some ‘make-up’ work to do, and if you are more than a year older than those targets, it doesn’t bode well for your future.

The second area we look at to test a ‘prospect’ is Projectability. In 2001, with Kane County being the closest Minor League affiliate to where I live, I got to see 18yo, Miguel Cabrera play more than a dozen times. At 6’2, 185lbs it was difficult to envision the 6’4, 240lb, behemoth that he was later to become. In batting practice, you could watch him put on a tremendous display of both power and quickness with the bat, but that translated into a .268/.328/.382 line for the year…barely above a .700 OPS. But what you could see, was that he was going to get both bigger and stronger as he filled out. By the same token, I have seen Jaff Decker play a couple of times this year. At 19yo, he is 5’10, 190 lbs. While he is a hitting machine, and I believe he certainly has the potential to succeed at the Major League level, he will have to prove himself at every level, because no one believes that he will gain much if any size/strength as he matures. The same thing goes for pitchers. We are far more tolerant of bad numbers from an 18yo, 6’4, 180lb high school senior than we are of a 22yo 6’2, 210lb college junior. They both may throw 92MPH fastballs, but only one of theirs is likely to get any faster. We try to account for this, to some degree, with our height, weight and body mass distribution inputs in Step 2, but this is something that requires a certain amount of ‘artistry’.

The third area is Pitch Repertoire. Young pitchers, especially at the lower levels of the minors and in college and high school, tend to get by on one or two pitches. Rarely do they have to go to a Change-up. They may have more than that that they can throw, but they tend not to need them to get out less experienced hitters. The old baseball adage definitely holds true—a pitcher needs three quality pitches to make it as a big league starter. In this area we are looking for depth of a pitching repertoire, or else we are likely to evaluate the player as a RP only—and we will write more in depth at a later date about the success rate of minor league RPs. The other area that we look for here is velocity. The term ‘crafty lefty’ wasn’t invented out of thin air. There are a number of left-handed pitchers pitching in the Majors today that can spot four pitches, but lack any true ‘stuff’. You’ll notice they don’t say ‘crafty righty’. While right-handed pitchers can succeed at the lower levels of the Minor Leagues without ‘stuff’…there are very, very, few Major League right-handers with a mid 80’s fastball.

The fourth area is Pitch Movement. A major league hitter will have little difficulty in hitting a 100mph fastball if it comes in straight. When we are looking for pitchers that will be successful, we want pitchers that show late ‘life’ or late breaking action on their pitchers. This is one of the more difficult areas to evaluate, because it requires some sort of first hand observation. At Diamond Futures we use our own observation, industry contacts, and research. Despite all of these, we still likely have a good feel on about 10% of the pitchers that we would like.

The fifth area that we look at is Defensive Position. The overwhelming plurality of Major League position players came out of high school as shortstops. High school coaches play their top players at that position. As a player progresses, his position is determined by a heightened elimination process, i.e. positions get eliminated by their defensive capabilities, or lack thereof. Only SS and a Catcher can make the major leagues nearly exclusively on their defensive ability. Therefore, as they move outward, from the middle of the diamond, their offensive requirements become greater. A player that might have had enough of an offensive game to play SS, may lack the requirements to play 2B, 3B or CF. A player that might have had enough offensive game to play 2B, may lack the required power to succeed as a corner OF or a first basemen. So when we try to determine if a ‘prospect is a prospect’ we look at what position they are likely to play at the big league level, and then if their bat will meet the requirements of a typical Major League player at that position.

The final area that we look at, is also the most difficult to gauge—Work Ethic. Remember that Michael Jordan was cut from his high school team as a Sophomore because he wasn’t talented enough. At the highest levels of professional sports, talent isn’t as big a differentiator as is work ethic. While I am not writing off Delmon Young just yet, unless his work ethic changes his, almost limitless, talent will be wasted. When we are assessing this area, we are predominantly looking at how ‘coachable’ a player is, how a player responds when things aren’t going well, and how much of a student of the game the player is. We acquire this information through research, observation and first hand reports.

While Step 3 is more ‘art’ than ‘science’, keep in mind that we use this predominantly to weed players out. So while this isn’t really quantifiable or objective, given the methods available to collect this information, we are only using it to eliminate or downgrade players that the statistical work has already identified. So we aren’t dramatically skewing the statistical analysis with this step—only improving on it.

Around the Bases - June 16, 2009

Kung Fu Panda is rapidly becoming one of our favorite players

News Flash…
In case you’ve missed it…25yo Ryan Braun has become one of the top five hitters in the Major Leagues. Yesterday’s 3 for 5 performance with a triple, a home run, a walk and a SB, leaves Braun at .319/.415/.578 on the season.

Something you probably didn’t know…
While most 22yo prospects are toiling away in AA looking for their Major League shot, only 39 players in the last 20 years have achieved more Major League production than Pablo Sandoval has at his age. Yesterday’s 3 for 5 with 2 HRs, leaves Sandoval with a .337/.367/.519 through 362 Major League ABs.

Have to plug Bradley University when I can…
Brewers, 21yo prospect Dan Brewer put up the offense performance of the day yesterday, going 4 for 4 with 2 doubles and 2 triples.

Remember he is only 20 years old…
Dayan Viciedo posted a 3 for 4 performance with a double and a home run last night, leaving him with a .317/.364/.520 line over his last ten games—in the Southern League.

Paging Brian Sabean…
Sabean may be the only one left that hasn’t figured out that it is time to move Buster Posey up. California League pitchers are big time pitching around him these days. His 2 for 2 with a double and 2 walks last night means that in the last 8 games he has now been walked nine times. Of course I’d walk him too if he was hitting .478/.625/.826.

The Boy Can Hit…
23yo Mitch Moreland has a .962 OPS between two stops this year, after going 4 for 6 with a home run last night.

This was a bad outing?...
21yo Mat Latos surrendered the most runs he has in any game this season, going 5 1/3 innings, yielding 2 runs and 5 hits while fanning 12.

Makes me go hmmmm…
Am I the only one that believes that Bud Norris would be a better option than Brian Moehler, Russ Ortiz or Felipe Paulino in the Astro rotation? The 21yo Norris now sports a 2.39 ERA in the PCL after yesterdays 8 inning shutout performance where he allowed 2 hits and 2 walks while fanning 6.

Nobody does it better…
Than Tim Corcoran and Tom Kotchman and the Los Angeles Angels when it comes to finding talent in the small school/Juco ranks. 19yo Will Smith is their latest find and he tossed an 8 inning, 1 run, 5 hit, 2 walk, 7 strikeout gem last night.

A Look Ahead to the 2010 Draft

Bryce Harper lore is likely to surpass that of Stephen Strasburg

With the 2009 Draft in the books, and the announcement this weekend that Bryce Harper is enrolling at the College of Southern Nevada in order to make himself eligible for the 2010 Draft, it seemed like a good time to get an early peek at some of the players to watch as the next year unfolds. If you are unfamiliar with Bryce Harper, we’ll give you a few of the tidbits here, as the legend that is Bryce Harper is likely to dwarf the legend that is Stephen Strasburg. Harper is a 16yo, high school sophomore, that many Major League scouts feel would have been the second player taken had he been eligible for the 2009 draft. At 6’3”, he currently plays catcher, even though he sports a 96Mph Fastball, and the athleticism to play any position on the field. It is reported that as a freshman, the left-hander hit a homerun during a game that traveled a distance of 570’. In a showcase event in Tampa this past January, he hit a 510’ home run that is the longest ever recorded in Tropicana Field—at any level. His .626 average, to go along with 14 HRs and 33 SBs this season only added to his ‘Sid Finch-like’ lore that has propelled him to the cover of the most recent issue of Sports Illustrated. If Stephen Strasburg is the best college draft prospect of all-time, Bryce Harper is positioned to become the best high school draft prospect of all time. There will be plenty of people, over the next twelve months, willing to add to the, already-enormous, legend; for now we’ll just focus on next June’s draft.

The draft itself is shaping up to be a solid draft overall—similar in overall quality to this past year. Outside of Harper, the strength of this draft, similar to 2009, is in its pitching. At this time, the College pitching is probably not quite as deep or quite as strong as 2009. On the prep side, it is slightly less deep, but the power arms at the top of the draft are comparable to the top of the 2008 draft. At both levels, the draft appears to be short of left-handers. On the hitting side, there is similar talent to 2009 on the prep side—with likely more depth. While the college bats can’t compare to the 2008 draft, they are not only stronger than 2009, but there is talent up the middle—a quality that has been missing the last couple of season. So here is our look at the players to keep an eye on over the coming year.


2010 Draft – Top 30 Players

1) Bryce Harper, C, Las Vegas
2) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, LSU
3) Bryce Brentz, OF, Middle Tennessee State
4) Yordy Cabrera, SS, Lakeland, FL
5) A.J. Cole, RHP, Winter Springs, FL
6) James Taillon, RHP, Woodlands, TX
7) Kyle Blair, RHP, Univ. of San Diego
8) Trey Griffin, OF, Stockbridge, GA
9) Deck McGwire, RHP, Georgia Tech
10) Blake Forsythe, C, Tennessee
11) Christian Colon, SS, Cal State-Fullerton
12) Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State
13) Chris Hernandez, LHP, Miami
14) Austin Wilson, OF, Los Angeles, CA
15) Daniel Renken, RHP, Cas State-Fullerton
16) Josh Rutledge, SS, Alabama
17) Kris Bryant, SS/3B, Las Vegas, NV
18) Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Mississippi
19) Kaleb Cowart, RHP, Adel, GA
20) Yasmani Grandal, C, Miami
21) Nick Tepesch, RHP, Missouri
22) Nick Castellanos, 3B, Ft. Lauderdale, FL
23) Derek Dietrich, 3B, Georgia Tech
24) Cameron Bedrosian, RHP, Coweta, GA
25) Krey Bratsen, OF, Bryan, TX
26) Matt Harvey, RHP, North Carolina
27) Victor Sanchez, 3B, Univ. of San Diego
28) Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas
29) Marcus Littlewood, SS, St. George, UT
30) Dylan Covey, RHP, Pasadena, CA

Around the Bases - June 15, 2009

It's looking like a breakout season for Mariner prospect Tyson Gillies

Jorge Who?...
Always thought of as a defense-first catching prospect, 23yo Francisco Cervelli is doing an adequate job--offensively, filling in for, and backing up, Jorge Posada. A 3 for 5 yesterday leaves Cervelli with a .298 average on the year.

I certainly didn’t expect this…
Brad Bergesen has always been a solid second-tier type prospect in my book. Given an opportunity, he could find a spot at the back of someone’s rotation and have a serviceable Major League career had been the thought. But yesterday’s complete game, 5-hitter; where he allowed two Runs, Walked two and fanned three, leaves him with 4-2 record and a 3.79 ERA after 11 starts as a 23yo.

I’m going to need to see a driver’s license…
The fact that Johnny Cueto is a good pitcher is hardly news. Yesterday’s 6 shutout inning performance where he allowed 7 Hits and 1 Walk is hardly a surprise. But his domination of the National League (2.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) through 13 starts, as 23yo, is shocking.

It was just a matter of time…
Matt Cain was a Top 3 Pitching Prospect for us heading into both the 2005 and 2006 seasons. He made our Top 50 list and our Top 300 list heading into 2004 and 2003. The point is, we have been expecting great things from him for some time. Yet in three plus Major League seasons, the best he could muster up was a 30-41 record and a 3.85 ERA. Now a 24yo, he finally looks to be putting it all together. Yesterday’s complete game 4-hitter, where he allowed 1 run and struck out 9 without issuing a walk, leaves Cain at 9-1 on the year, with a 2.39 ERA.

Mother told me there’d be days like this…
Red Sox reliever, Dan Bard, has a promising future ahead of him. Yesterday just wasn’t a a part of it. In 2/3 innings yesterday, Bard gave up 4 Runs on 2 Hits and 3 Walks.

There is something more to this story…
I’m waiting for, as the late Paul Harvey used to say, “the rest of the story” on Hector Rondon. Apparently the Indians are keeping him on a strict 60-pitch count limit. Yesterday, after throwing 4 shutout innings where he allowed only a single hit and fanned three, he was pulled after 53 pitches. Hmmm…

Ugly line of the day…
Braves middle infield prospect, Brandon Hicks, continued his miserable season as he fanned in all four At Bats. This leaves Hicks hitting .211/.267/.303 on the year.

Keep your eye on…
Marnier’s OF prospect Tyson Gillies continues what appears to be a breakout season for the 20yo. A 3 for 4 with a double and 2 home runs, puts Gillies at .330/.440/.500 on the year.

Still not sure where he fits, but…
21yo Giants prospect, Thomas Neal, sure can hit. After spending 2008 being held somewhat under wraps, recovering from shoulder surgery, Neal has been let loose this season. With a 3 for 5, double, triple, home run performance on Sunday, Neal has a 1.039 OPS on the year.

And you thought the PCL was a hitter’s league…
24yo Dodger prospect James McDonald shut out Round Rock for 7 innings on Sunday, issuing 2 hits and a walk, while fanning 13. In his last two starts, McDonald has allowed 1 ER and has a 23:3 K:BB ratio.

And the same goes for the California League…
21yo Alexander Torres is on fire. Yesterday’s 8 shutout inning performance, where he yielded 4 hits and a walk, while fanning 8, means that Torres has not allowed more than 1 run in any of his last 5 starts. Over that time he has a 0.66 ERA.

Around the Bases - Weekend Edition

Lincecum's delivery may be awkward, but the results certainly aren't

Here is a round-up of some of the more interesting lines over Friday’ and Saturday’s games:

20yo Rick Porcello not only went 7 Innings, on Friday night, allowing 6 Hits, 1 BB and 1 ER, but he did some damage with his first major league At Bats, going 2 for 3 with 2 RBIs.

23yo Chris Coghlan continues to be the table setter that the Marlins are looking for. He went 5 for 10 with 2 doubles and a stolen base, and has a .362 OBP through 110 ABs.

The Royals’ Billy Butler extended his hit streak to 9 games, going 4 for 9 with a HR.

Is there a better pitcher in baseball than the Giants’ Tim Lincecum? The 24yo Lincecum threw a complete game shutout on Friday night, allowing 7 Hits and 1 Walk while fanning 8.

Homer Bailey looks like he finally may be ready to come up and stay in the Major’s, after going 8 2/3 Innings, allowing 1 ER on 6 Hits and 2 Walks while striking out 8 batters. Since May 18, Bailey has a 1.27 ERA and 30:9 K:BB ratio.

The Giants’ Clayton Tanner had the pitching performance of the nigh on Friday. The 21yo went 6 Innings, allowing 1 Run on 3 Hits and struck out 10. Tanner now has a 2.96 ERA on the year in the hitter-friendly California League.

This week’s Top Hot Prospect, Travis Wood, posted another gem on Friday, going 7 shutout innings, allowing 1 hit and 1 walk, while fanning 9. The 22yo has now allowed 2 ERs in the last 36 innings with a 28:2 K:BB ratio.

Diamondback fans got a scare on Saturday night as uber-prospect Jarrod Parker took a line drive off his pitching hand from the second batter he faced. Parker left the game in obvious pain, but X-rays were negative.

Ugly pitching line of the weekend belonged to the Phillies Antonio Bastardo , who couldn’t retire a batter in the second inning on Saturday. All told, he went 1 inning, allowing 4 ERs, 3 hits and 3 walks.

‘Hot’ Pitching prospect, Esmil Rogers of the Rockies, went 8 shutout innings on Saturady, allowing 5 Hits and fanning 10. In 6 of his 12 starts on the year, he hasn’t allowed a run. In the other 6, he has a 5.55 ERA.

The Twins’ rewarded Anthony Swarzak for his 7 shutout inning performance…with a demotion to AAA.

It looks like the Pirates’ Pedro Alvarez is starting to show why he was regarded as the best hitting prospect in the 2008 draft, going 3 for 9 with a 2B and 2 HRs. Alvarez now leads the Carolina League in RBIs with 49.

Take your pick on the ugly hitting performance: Charles Blackmon, COL – 0 for 7 with 5Ks; Delta Cleary, COL – 0 for 9 with 4 Ks; Greg Halman, SEA – 0 for 7 with 3 Ks. Halman has no gone 10 straight games with at least 1 strikeout, fanning 16 times in 35 Plate Appearances during that stretch.

The Brewers’ Chris Dennis continues his torrid hitting. In 7 weekend Plate appearances, he had 4 Hits and 2 walks including a 2B and a 3B.

Michael Burgess’ bat (Nationals) is finally starting to show some life. In 3 Games, Burgess made 13 trips to the plate, reaching base 8 times, including a double, 2 walks and 2 home runs. The 20yo Burgess has posted a .414/.485/.828 over his last 9 games.

The Mets’ Ike Davis is starting to alleviate concerns over his lack of power. Davis went 3 for 7, with 2 HRs. He now has 5 HRs in his last 10 games.

The Red Sox’s Aaron Bates, in 11 trips to the plate, had 4 walks, 2 singles and 2 HRs.

Questionable decision of the weekend goes to Cal State-Fullerton’s coach Dave Serrano, who decided to start Freshman Noe Ramirez in the College World Series opener against Arkansas. The Freshman, self-admittedly nervous, went 3 2/3 innings, allowing 7 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks—sending the Titans to defeat.