TEAM #3 – Boston Red Sox

Westmoreland must prove he can stay healthy in 2010

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We are down to the final three teams, and all of them stand apart from the rest of the league—especially when it comes to the quality that runs deeply throughout each system. The Boston Red Sox check in at #3, and while they have more prospects that grade out at each grade between ‘B+’ thru ‘C’ than any system that we have rated thus far, they finish in third because they aren’t quite as strong at the top as the final two organizations. But that is taking nothing away from Theo Epstein and the Red Sox management, because this organization has been run near flawlessly for close to a decade. They do it all: Make the right trades, sign the right free agents, hit the Latin American and Pacific Rim markets hard, draft quality players—and develop them right. It must be a joy to be a Red Sox fan these days. Their Minor League system is filled with players that tend to be highly athletic—yet have proven production. Their position players, in large part, have a history of playing in the middle of the field and transition easily to other positions. They not only make solid draft picks in the early rounds, but the spend money to acquire early round talent—much later in the draft. While the top of this list is a bit weighted toward position players, there is good balance throughout between hitters and pitchers. There is a nice mix between players that are near ready and players that are quite a ways off. Finally there is a nice mix between high-ceiling and high-floor types. If I have to pick nits, the only criticism I can level is that the Red Sox tend to be a bit overly aggressive in their promotion strategy. All in all, this is one of, if not, the best run system in baseball, and it is well positioned for years to come.

Grade A


1) Ryan Westmoreland, OF (2009 Performance Scores – Power 76; First Base Rate 74; Discipline 54; Speed 80)

Westmoreland is an example of Boston’s strategy of finding premium talent throughout the draft, as he was the Red Sox 5th round pick in 2008, who the Red Sox signed away from Vanderbilt by paying him top of the first round money. Shortly after signing, it was discovered that Westmoreland would need shoulder surgery, so he didn’t make his professional debut until this summer. What we saw was worth the wait though, as Westmoreland posted the Top Performance Score in the NYP, and one of the top scores overall of the 2009 season. Unfortunately, his season was cut short when he broke his collar bone late in the season. A tremendous athlete, Westmoreland shows above average power and on-base skills to go along with his plus-plus speed. Although he did strike out in 19% of his PA’s he shows precocious awareness for the strike zone. Defensively he has tremendous range, solid instincts, and when healthy, a plus arm. Westmoreland’s ceiling is among the highest of position players in the Minor Leagues. However, he will now have to shake the ‘fragile’ label and demonstrate that he can remain healthy for an entire season. Look for him to open 2010 in the SAL, but could move rapidly.



2) Casey Kelly, RHP (2009 – Dominance 51; Stamina 72; HRrate 67; Control 72)

Many teams passed on Kelly in the 2008 draft, because they saw him as a pitcher and Kelly saw himself as a shortstop. The Red Sox tabbed him at the end of the first round, paid him high first round money and created a unique arrangement that allowed Kelly to play the first half of the season as a pitcher and the second half as a shortstop. One season later, Kelly is a convert. With the shortstop experiment behind him, Kelly can focus on developing what is truly a special arm. At an athletic 6’3, 195lbs, there is still projection in what is an already polished prospect. Kelly possesses a low-90s fastball, with a curve and a change that both show plus potential. Perhaps more significantly he keeps the ball low in the zone, and commands all of his pitches well. In 2009, Kelly posted the #8 Performance Score in the SAL, and was even better in the Carolina League (CAR) where he posted the #2 Performance Score. He is likely to open up the 2010 in the ESL—as a 20yo. Boston has loads of pitching talent at the Major League level, so there is no need to rush Kelly. However, it may be difficult to hold back what is potentially front of the rotation, star, material.

Grade A-

3) Ryan Kalish, OF (2009 – Power 69; First Base Rate 74; Discipline 53; Speed 72)

Kalish is another of Boston’s premium talent finds in the later rounds, as they selected Kalish in the 9th round of the 2006 draft, but paid him second round money. After an injury-plagued first few years, Kalish had a breakout 2009, when he posted the #2 Performance Score in the CAR and followed that up with the #9 score in the ESL after his promotion. Kalish possesses sound baseball instincts, and above average power, on-base and speed skills. While he did fan in 19% of his plate appearances last season, he has a solid approach to plate management. Defensively, he has the speed to play CF, but in a system loaded with premium CF defensive talents, he is nearly certain to end up on an outfield corner—potentially RF, but most likely LF. Kalish has the upside to be an above average, everyday, Major League OF. The positive here is that moving to AAA to open 2010, as a 22yo, his floor appears to be no worse than a Major League 4th OF type, capable of playing all three positions.


4) Lars Anderson, 1B (2009 – Power 47; First Base Rate 56; Discipline 33; Speed 44)

Anderson entered 2010 as a consensus Top 25 prospect, only to fail miserably in a League that he had already shown success in—over 133 ABS. We wish we could explain the result, but we are just as baffled as anyone. An 18th round pick, to whom the Red Sox gave second round money in 2006, Anderson has some of the highest power potential in the Minors. Despite his enormous power, he has the ability to put up solid on-base numbers, and shows above average plate management skills—all of which were absent in 2009. Prior to 2009, it was his lack of speed and questionable defense that were his negatives. Still only 22yo, we are going to issue Anderson a mulligan for the 2009 season. He’ll likely return to the ESL, for a third stint, in 2010, and hopefully we’ll see a return of the 2008 version.

Grade B+

5) Derrik Gibson, 2B/SS (2009 – Power 38; First Base Rate 77; Discipline 70; Speed 80)

We find Gibson, the Red Sox’s 2nd round pick in 2008, one of the more underrated prospects in the game. Highly athletic and hard-nosed, with a high baseball IQ and sound instincts, Gibson is the protypical disruptive force that a team wants in the top portion of the lineup—the quintessential #2 hitter. Gibson possesses plus on-base skills, plus strike zone management skills and plus-plus speed. With a highly projectable 6’1”, 170lb, frame, he even projects to show average power for a middle infielder. Defensively, he has great range and a strong arm, but may end up moving to second base because of the depth of shortstop talent in the system. Gibson’s ceiling is that of an above average, everyday, middle infielder, however he also possesses a high-floor, as he is a near certainty to end up no worse than a solid Major League utility player. Barley 20yo, Gibson will take his considerable skill set to the SAL to open 2010.


6) Jose Iglesias, SS -

While we had Iglesias rated among the Top 10 Latin American prospects available this past summer, we never expected either the $6.25MM bonus that the Red Sox gave him, or the standout debut he had in this fall’s AZFL. Iglesias is a defense-first shortstop, with amazing quickness and range, tremendous instincts, soft hands and a solid arm. The knock on him has always been his bat, which showed more in the AZFL than was expected. Iglesias will likely never have more than below average power, and lacks patience to draw many walks, but he makes good contact, with above average pitch recognition skills and above average speed. His upside is that of an average, every day, Major League shortstop—with premium defense, but more than likely will end up a tick below average offensively. Look for Iglesias to start 2010 in AA, and make his debut in Boston sometime in 2011.


7) Josh Reddick, RF (2009 – Power 46; First Base Rate 27; Discipline 47; Speed 37)

Reddick was somewhat of a victim of the Red Sox tendency to be a tad over aggressive in their promotion strategy, as he started 2009 off with a performance that earned him the #14 Performance score in the ESL, and then struggled mightily against the better pitching of AAA and the Majors. Reddick possesses above average power and speed skills with average contact and strike zone management skills. Defensively, he has the range to play CF, but has a phenomenal arm, that allows him to best fit in RF. On the downside, Reddick lacks any exceptional offensive skills, and was tremendously overmatched (36% strikeout rate) against AAA and Major League pitchers. Reddick’s ceiling is that of an average, everyday, Major League RF, but he will have to show more against better pitching. Look for Reddick to return to what promises to be a stacked ESL lineup to open 2010.


8) Junichi Tazawa, RHP (2009 – Dominance 65; Stamina 70; HRrate 45; Control 69)

Signed out of the Japanese Industrial League in 2008 for $3.3MM, Tazawa performed precisely as expected in his 2009 debut, posting the #16 Performance Score in the ESL before AAA and Major League promotions. The 23yo’s calling card is an extremely advanced four-pitch repertoire that features three potentially plus pitches, but lacks a true puchout offering. At 5’11”, 180lbs, there is little remaining projection for an extremely polished pitcher. While Tazawa possesses the ceiling of a back of the rotation starter, he may lack both the durability, and raw stuff to succeed in that role in the long-term and may become an exceptional middle relief pitcher. Tazawa will likely return to the AAA rotation in 2010, waiting for a Major League opportunity.


9) Anthony Rizzo, 1B (2009 – Power 67; First Base Rate 65; Discipline 52; Speed 39)

2009 was a comeback of the greatest kiond for Rizzo, after a nearly year-long battle with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Rizzo didn’t miss a beat, as he posted the #4 Performance Score in the SAL, before finishing the year with the #7 score in the CAR. Although it hasn’t yet produced many home runs, Rizzo shows above average power and on-base skills, with at least average strike zone management skills. Defensively, he rates as a plus defender at first base. The downside to Rizzo is that, at 6’3”, 220lbs, he isn’t very fast, and will likely end up with base-clogging speed. Additionally, while we expect his doubles power to evolve into home runs, he will have to demonstrate more power to be offensively successful at first base in the Major Leagues. With Lars Anderson, likely to open up in AA, expect Rizzo to return to the CAR to open 2010.


10) Reymond Fuentes, CF (2009 – Power 40; First Base Rate 46; Discipline 67; Speed 61)

Viewed as a likely second round pick for most of the spring, Fuentes shot up the draft boards with a couple of head-turning U.S. workouts the week before the draft. We had Fuentes as the #19 player on draft day and felt it a solid pick when Boston selected him at #28 overall. Plus-plus speed, and phenomenal center field defense are Fuentes’ calling cards. An aggressive, attacking, hitting style doesn’t allow for much patience, but he showed advanced pitch recognition and solid contact skills in his debut. While we don’t expect him to ever be a power threat, at 6’0”, 160lbs, there is significant projection in him as he matures and we expect his power skills to end up average. The downside is that Fuentes is probably the most ‘raw’ player drafted in June’s first round. He doesn’t appear to be tremendously instinctual, or possess a significant baseball IQ, but remember he is still just 18yo. Fuentes has a tremendous ceiling, but is also tremendously far from reaching it. Expect him to open 2010 in the SAL.



Grade B

11) Michael Bowden, RHP (2009 – Dominance 45; Stamina 66; HRrate 47; Control 45)

Bowden has basically found himself the odd-man out in Boston’s embarrassment of pitching riches, and has regressed over the past year. After a 2008 season that saw Bowden post the #3 and #4 Performance scores in the ESL and International League (INT), respectively, Bowden slipped to the #19 score in the INT this past season, and was hit hard in his brief Major League call-up. The biggest difference between the two seasons was Bowden’s 2009 struggle with control and keeping the ball down. The 23yo Bowden possesses a low-90s fastball and an above average change. Neither of his breaking pitches have evolved to Major League caliber at this juncture. Bowden’s upside remains that of a solid mid-rotation starter, but is bordering on be labeled with the 4A designation. While Bowden will compete for a bullpen spot this spring, he is likely to return for a third stint in the AAA rotation.


12) Jose Vinicio, SS -

We had Vinicio rated as one of the Top five Latin American talents this past signing period, as he was the best offensive shortstop that was likely to remain at that position. Vinicio rates as a plus defender, possessing sound instincts, soft hands, solid range and a strong arm. Offensively, he offers potential above average power and contact skills for the position. Though, like many young Latin American prospects, Vinicio is aggressive at the plate, he shows more patience than most. His 6’0”, 155lb, frame offers substantial projection. Although tremendously far off, Vinicio has a significant ceiling. He will make his debut this summer—likely in the GCL.


13) Che-Hsuan Lin, CF (2009 – Power 40; First Base Rate 74; Discipline 70; Speed 74)

Potentially Boston’s first legitimate Pacific Rim position prospect, Lin is a gifted athlete, and possesses some of the Minor League’s best center field defensive skills. With amazing instincts, seemingly boundless range, and a plus arm, Lin is unquestionably the best CF defender in an organization that is loaded with them. Unfortunately, his bat is not nearly as advanced. Although 2009 was his best offensive showing of his career, with the #6 Performance Score in the CAR, Lin still lacks a charge when making contact and has only 16 Home runs in nearly 1200 PAs. The good news is that is his only offensive weakness, as he makes consistent contact, combined with a patient approach at the plate that leads to solid on-base skills, and has exceptional strike zone management skills. Lin will begin 2010 in AA. While he has the potential to be a slightly below average Major League CF, offensively, and a plus defender, the Boston organization has too much talent at that position to envision Lin in their Major League lineup without additional power production.


14) David Renfroe, RHP -

We had Renfroe rated as a likely second round pick on draft day, and were not the least bit shocked that the Red Sox tabbed him in round three and signed him to first round money. A tremendous athlete, Renfroe possesses above average power and contact skills and projects to have solid plate discipline skills. Defensively, while he has good hands and a strong arm, he lacks speed and lateral quickness. Already at 6’3” and 200lbs, it is probable that Renfroe will outgrow shortstop and end up at third base. While his offensive skill set projects as a plus at shortstop, they may be a tad light for third base. Renfroe will debut this summer—likely in the NYP.


15) Stolmy Pimentel, RHP (2009 – Dominance 46; Stamina 66; HRrate 26; Control 63)

We have been watching Pimentel since he posted a top 15 Performance score in the DSL in 2007. He really caught our attention when he followed that up with the top Performance Score in the NYP, in his U.S. debut last season. With his first taste of full-season ball coming this year, Pimentel , posted a Top 25 score in the SAL, but we found it a bit lacking. With a low-90s fastball, a plus change, and a solid curve, Pimentel has all the makings of a mid-rotation starter. At 6’3”, 185lbs, there is still significant projection here. His control is solid. One of Pimentel’s downfalls last season was leaving his fastball up. He will have to improve upon this as he climbs the ladder. Barely 20yo, Pimentel should open 2010 in Hi-A.

16) Yamaico Navarro, SS (2009 – Power 64; First Base Rate 30; Discipline 64; Speed 51)

After posting the #17 Performance Score in the CAL in 2008, Navarro was poised for a big season in 2009, but broke his hammate bone early in the season. While not a significant long-term concern, that injury takes nearly a year to fully recover one’s strength, so we are given Navarro a pass on his disappointing 2009 performance. With above average power for the position, and solid plate discipline and contact skills, Navarro has the potential to be an above average offensive shortstop. Defensively, however, he lacks tremendous quickness, and may end up eventually moving to secondbase with the likes of Jose Iglesias around. Navarro should be fully healthy when he begins 2010 in AA.


17) Michael Almanzar, 3B (2009 – Power 37; First Base Rate 34; Discipline 43; Speed 31)

Almanzar was the highest profile Latin American signing of the summer when Boston inked him to a $1.5MM deal in 2007. While he posted a solid debut in the GCL, with the #7 Performance Score, Almanzar has struggled mightily against full-season pitching. Projected to eventually produce plus power, thus far Almanzar has produced only 7 home runs in nearly 650 professional at bats. His biggest problem thus far though has been an inability to make consistent contact, as he batted only .220 and struck out 24% of the time last season. Just barely 19yo, there is still plenty of time for Almanzar to mature and develop. Defensively he is likely destined for first base. Look for Almanzar to make a third appearance in the SAL in 2010—hoping for a much improved result.



Grade B-

18) Felix Doubront, LHP (2009 – Dominance 51; Stamina 62; HRrate 54; Control 41)

We first became aware of Doubront when he posted the best Performance Score in the VSL in 2005. A year later he followed that up with the #6 Performance Score in the GCL. 2007 was marred by a series of injuries, and was by far his most disappointing season, but he came back strong with a Top 10 score in the SAL in 2008 and the #17 score in the ESL last season. The point—Doubront has a track record of significant success, yet finds himself as a relative after thought in the deep Red Sox system. With a low-90s fastball and solid change, Doubront is two-thirds the way to becoming a solid #3/#4 starter. To achieve that, his curve will have to improve and he will need to tighten up his command. Look for Doubront to open 2010 as a 22yo, and realize that he would be ranked much higher in many systems.


19) Madison Younginer, RHP -

We had Younginer projected as a second round pick on draft day, and Boston was able to snare him in the 7th round, by paying him sandwich round money. Already possessing a mid-90s fastball, and a plus curve, he has the one-two punch that would make him a lights out closer. However, Boston intends to work on him with his change and keep him in the rotation where he has top of the rotation potential. Reports from instructional were extremely positive. The downside is that Younginer possesses unusual mechanics, and there were pre-draft whispers about makeup concerns. Sources that have weighed in with us, have also expressed the belief that his future lies in the bullpen. We will have a much better idea on things once he gets some game action this summer—likely in the NYP.


20) Tim Federowicz, C (2009 – Power 71; First Base Rate 34; Discipline 73; Speed 35)

Federowicz was considered a defense first catcher when the Red Sox selected him in the 7th round of the 2008 draft. However, Federowicz showed better than expected offensive skills last season, as he posted the #12 Performance score in the SAL and then a Top 20 Score in the CAR. Federowicz, doesn’t project for more than average power, on-base or plate discipline skills. While not a base-clogger, he doesn’t possess significant speed. Defensively, he has solid game management skills, a good arm, and decent movement. While there isn’t a tremendous upside here, Federowicz could become an average to slightly below, everyday, Major League backstop. A back-up role may be a more likely outcome. Expect Federowicz to return to Hi-A to begin the 2010 season.


21) Alex Wilson, RHP (2009 – Dominance 72; Stamina 40; HRrate 73; Control 72)

After considering Wilson as a fringe first round prospect for much of the spring, some disappointing performances late caused him to fall to round two on our board—right where the Red Sox drafted him. While he didn’t get enough innings to qualify after signing, his 36 inning performance in the NYP would have ranked as one of the League’s top scores. Wilson’s plus slider is his best pitch, although he also has a low-90s fastball that can be a mid-90s offering in relief. He controls his pitches well and does a solid job of pitching down in the zone. While we felt Wilson profiles best as a back of the bullpen stud, Boston will send him to be part of the rotation in the CAR in 2010.


22) Luis Exposito, C (2009 – Power 63; First Base Rate 49; Discipline 39; Speed 39)

Exposito was thought to be a defense-first catcher when the Red Sox drafted him in 2005, but it is his offense that has been getting noticed the past two seasons. With above average power potential and one of the Minor’s better backstop arms, Exposito has the upside of an above average Major League catcher. Unfortunately, we remain skeptical of the likelihood, due to an over-aggressive approach at the plate that results in poor plate discipline and diminished contact ability. Additionally, his speed is below average even for the catching position. Look for Expositio to return to AA to begin the 2010 season.


23) Pete Hissey, CF (2009 – Power 29; First Base Rate 75; Discipline 48; Speed 71)

Hissey was the Red Sox 4th round pick in 2008, who they ended up signing for sandwich round money. Hissey possesses plus on-base and speed skills, and is a solid outfield defender, capable of playing any of the three positions. The downside is that Hissey is homerless through 424 professional ABs, and as of yet has shown little in the way of power. Additionally, his 22% strikeout rate is concerning for a hitter of his stature. We weren’t sold on the Hissey pick when it was made in 2008, and still remain skeptical. Nevertheless, Hissey’s tools require attention, as he just turned 20yo, and he will open 2010 in the CAR.




Grade C+ Prospects –

24) Ryan Lavarnway, C; 25) Kyle Weiland, RHP; 26) Will Middlebrooks, 3B; 27) Drake Britton, LHP; 28) Kendal Volz, RHP; 29) Chi-Hsien Chiang, DH; 30) Stephen Fife, RHP; 31) Chris McGuiness, 1B; 32) Ryan Pressley, RHP; 33) Oscar Tejeda, SS; 34) Brandon Jacobs, OF; 35) Raul Alcantara, RHP; 36) Manuel Rivera, LHP; 37) Alex Hassan, RF; 38) Roman Mendez, RHP; 39) Ryan Dent, 2B; 40) Jason Place, LF.

Grade C Prospects –

Aaron Bates; Anatanaer Batista; Chris Carter; Yeiper Castillo; Fabio Castro; Caleb Clay; Randy Consuerga; Keury de la Cruz; Jordan Flasher; Jeremy Hazelbaker; Miles Head; Brock Huntzinger; Jorge Jimenez; Richie Lentz; David Mailman; Leandro Marin; Adam Mills; Daniel Nava; Dennis Neuman; Yunior Ortega; Pedro Perez; Wilfred Pichardo; Eammon Portice; Dustin Richardson; Jason Richardson; Seth Schwindenhammer; Francisco Taveras; Jason Thompson; Lewis Urena; Mark Wagner; Shannon Wilkerson; Fabian Williamson.


Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.


You can find an explanation of our grades here Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season. For additional information on our rankings methodology, see our recent Mailbag article here This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions.

TEAM #4 – Atlanta Braves

Jason Heyward put together a season of historic proportions in the SOL

Our 2010 Prospect eGuide is less than a week away. If you have enjoyed this series, then check out the details here: http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/exclusive-offer.html .


Led by one of the Minor League’s Top Prospects, the Atlanta Brave check in at #4. Although the Top Two prospects are position players, thirteen of the next sixteen prospects are pitchers, as pitching is clearly the strength of this organization. But pitching isn’t the only strength, as the Braves have one of the deepest organizations in the Minors. This depth has not only been supplied by shrewd drafting, but by one of the longest running successful Latin American scouting programs. One more plus is the solid balance between high-ceiling and low-floor prospects. On the downside, while pitching may be a strength, it is highlighted by the fact that the Braves only have seven position players that grade out to a ‘B-‘ or better, the lowest number of any organization. Additionally, the Braves, outside of Jason Heyward, have few players that are near Major League ready, so it is likely still another couple of years before the Minor League system makes significant contribution.



Grade A


1) Jason Heyward, RF (2009 Performance Scores – Power 79; First Base Rate 71; Discipline 72; Speed 55)

Heyward spent most of the summer chasing Andruw Jones and a piece of history, as he was looking to become the first 19yo to post a 1.100 OPS in AA since Jones did it 1996. In the end he fell .043 points short, but in the process posted the highest Performance Score of the 2009 season. It’s hard to believe that thirteen teams passed on Heyward in the 2007, but there he was waiting for Atlanta at #14, and in three stops since then (2008 SAL, 2009 CAR and 2009 SOL) he has posted the Top Performance Score at each one. Heyward is a truly special, once in a decade type, offensive talent. He not only possesses a full set of tools, but he shows plus potential in power, contact and plate discipline. Speed is his least skilled area, and he still rates above average in that department. Defensively he plays right field with the quickness and instincts of a center fielder and the arm of a third baseman. His upside is that of one of the elite players at the Major League level. If there is a weakness, it is that the muscular Heyward may be too muscular. Over his three year career he has had a history of nagging injuries and muscle ailments. The path has been cleared for Heyward in Atlanta. While they may keep him in AAA for a month or so for player control/contract reasons, Heyward will be the Braves starting RF at some point during the 2010 season.


2) Freddie Freeman, 1B (2009 – Power 50; First Base Rate 53; Discipline 71; Speed 31)

Freeman was the Braves second round pick in the 2007 draft—the same draft they tabbed Jason Heyward. After struggling a bit in his 2007 GCL debut, he showed enough the following spring for the Braves to move him to full-season A-ball—despite being only 18yo, where he posted the League’s #3 Performance Score (behind only Heyward and Michael Stanton). In 2009, he began the year in the CAR, where he again posted the #3 Performance Score, before being promoted to the SOL, where the then 19yo posted a somewhat disappointing #16 Score—much due to a sore wrist. When healthy, Freeman possesses average power potential and contact skills, coupled with plus strike zone management skills. The downside is that he is defensively limited to first base—a position at which he excels, and doesn’t possess classic first base power. But Freeman is a doubles machine whose approach is very reminiscent of former Cubs first baseman, Mark Grace. Freeman has the upside an average, everyday, Major League first baseman with plus defense at the position. His floor is rather high, as a Sean Casey-like career looks to be his floor. While Freeman has matched Heyward’s assignments step-for-step up until now, we don’t expect Freeman to reach Atlanta before September at the earliest.



Grade A-


3) Julio Teheran, RHP (2009 – Dominance 45; Stamina 76; HRrate 60; Control 66)

Teheran was widely regarded as the top Latin American pitching talent in 2007, when the Braves signed him for $850,000. While the Braves brought him to the U.S. for the 2008 season, shoulder tenderness and a cautious approach kept him off the mound for all but 15 innings. Essentially 2009 was his debut, and the 18yo excelled, posting the Top Performance Score in the APY, and the #12 Score in the SAL. Teheran ‘s arsenal is keyed by a low- to mid-90s fastball, but it doesn’t end there, as both his curve and change show plus pitch potential. Despite his age, the precociousness with which he manages a game, and commands his offerings, is uncanny. If we haven’t provided enough positives, his 6’2”, 160lb frame has loads of potential left in it. On the downside, Teheran—despite his poise, is a raw talent that still is learning how to ‘pitch’. He has the pure ‘stuff’ to fan more batters than innings pitched, but only has whiffed 7.8 batters per 9IP thus far in his career. One final concern is that there are those that worry that his mechanics are off enough to potentially be an injury concern. Teheran has the upside of a front of the rotation Major League star. Currently he just needs to gain experience. The Braves will be cautious with him, as he will play the entire 2010 season as a 19yo—likely opening back in the SAL.



4) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (2009 – Dominance 77; Stamina 63; HRrate 49; Control 51)

As part of the Javier Vasquez deal, the Braves received the Yankees best pitching prospect in Vizcaino. He was originally signed for $800,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2007, sent to the GCL for his professional debut in 2008, where he posted the League’s #11 Performance Score, and then was the top pitcher in the NYP in 2009. Amazingly advanced for a 19yo, Vizcaino features a low- to mid-90s fastball, a plus curve, and a promising change. He has a tremendous feel for pitching and possesses above average control. With a ceiling of a front of the rotation star, Vizcaino just needs experience with some of the finer nuances of pitching. He is likely to begin 2010 in the SAL, and at only 19yo could spend the entire season there.



Grade B+


5) Randall Delgado, RHP (2009 – Dominance 68; Stamina 67; HRrate 40; Control 40)

Regular readers of this space understand our belief that there is no such thing as a player being too young, or a League that is too low-level to provide any meaningful information. We just need enough data points to statistically determine its degree of relevance. Such is the case with the Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues, which we have been using successfully for nearly a decade now. We were first introduced to Delgado when he posted the #9 Performance Score in the DSL in 2007. We began talking him up when he was in the midst of following that up with a #4 Performance Score in the APY in 2008. Now with a #9 Performance Score in the SAL in 2009, he is rocketing up prospect lists. More impressive, was the fact that if you divide Delgado’s season into two-halves, the first half with 15 starts through June and 62 innings pitched, the second from July on, where he went 62 innings over 12 starts, 2009 saw Delgado take his ERA from 5.66 to 3.05, his walk rate from 4.2 per 9IP to 2.9, and his strikeout rate increased from 9.8 batters per 9IP to 10.6. There is a lot to like about Delgado, and we will take them in order of impressiveness: 1) At 6’3”, 175lbs and 19yo, there is significant projection remaining; 2) With that projection, his current low-90s fastball should eventually become a mid-90s offering; 3) While both his Curve and Change are currently classified as ‘developing’, they both show plus potential. On the downside, Delgado’s command has been far closer to his first half performance than his second-half, over his professional career. If he is to succeed as he move up that will have to change. In many organizations, Delgado would be considered the highest ceiling pitching prospect, with Teheran and Vizcaino in the Braves system, he only comes in at #3, but, make no mistake, his ceiling is substantial. Look for Delgado to open 2010 as a 20yo in the Carolina (CAR) League.

6) Christian Bethancourt, C (2009 – Power 65; First Base Rate 42; Discipline 61; Speed 75)

Bethancourt was the Braves Top Latin American signing in 2008, and made his debut in the DSL that summer where he posted a Top 25 Performance Score. Sent to the GCL for his US debut, in 2009, Betancourt responded by posting the League’s #6 Performance Score. Bethancourt is one of the few players who, at 18yo, can be projected to stay at Catcher for the long haul. With good agility, solid ‘catch’ skills, a quick release, plus arm strength, and he has the potential to be a plus defender. While his bat was a little more questionable when he signed, Bethancourt has responded well, showing above average power and strike zone management skills, with average speed. If there is a knock offensively, it is that Bethancourt is an aggressive hitter, who doesn’t make as much contact as we would like. Still tremendously raw, the ceiling for Bethancourt is extremely high. He will make his full-season debut in 2010 in the SAL.


7) Mike Minor, LHP -

After profiling three relatively high-ceiling pitchers, in Teheran, Vizcaino and Delgado, who are quite a ways away, we come to Minor, who is a low-ceiling, high-floor type that could see Atlanta before the 2010 season is out. Minor was the Braves first round pick last June, whom they selected with the #7 overall pick. We had Minor #26 on our draft board, and, while we respect the Braves penchant for identifying and developing pitchers, his upside didn’t warrant being selected that high. Minor is a near finished product with a four-pitch repertoire that uses a 90MPH fastball to setup his plus change, a repertoire that he demonstrates plus command of. While he used it successfully to thoroughly dominate low-A hitters in four late season starts after signing, he struggled against the more advanced hitters that he faced in the AZFL. Don’t get us wrong, we find Minors’ pitchability and baseball IQ extremely high, and could easily imagine him as a #3/#4 Major League starter in a short period of time, but that is the best that he will ever be. Look for him to begin 2010 in the SOL.



Grade B


8) Craig Kimbrel, RP (2009 – Dominance 80; Stamina 25; HRrate 51; Control 20)

We remain consistent in our lack of ‘love’ for Minor League relief pitchers, but Kimbrel scores high enough on the ‘certainty’ side of the equation to merit a look. If nothing else, Kimbrel should be racking up the frequent flyer miles, as in two seasons, he has made seven different stops. Don’t expect 2010 to be any different, as Kimbrel should begin the year in 2010, and end the year in the Atlanta bullpen. Kimbrel has an attacking, closer, mentality. He uses a mid-90s fastball, that he compliments with an above average curve. Over the course of his short career, this has yielded one of the Minor League’s best strikeout rates—over 15 batters per 9IP. Like many young pitchers that throw as hard as Kimbrel does, lack of control is his biggest weaknesses. This was never more evident than this fall in the AZFL, where in 10-plus innings, he struck out 18, but walked 16. While the Braves see Kimbrel as their potential future closer, he is only 21yo, and is far from a finished product.


9) Adam Milligan, LF (2009 – Power 79; First Base Rate 57; Discipline 55; Speed 36)

Milligan was the Braves 6th round choice in 2008, but knee surgery didn’t allow him to debut until this summer. When he finally did, he ripped through three circuits, posting the #3 Performance Score in the SAL along the way. With above average power potential, and solid on-base skills, Milligan’s bat will be his calling card, as Milligan possesses little speed and is a defensive liability. Additionally, Milligan will need to cut down on his 21% strikeout rate if he is to experience success at higher levels. While Milligan has the ceiling of an average, everyday, Major League left fielder, his defensive concerns may limit him to first base, where he only profiles as a part-time/platoon player. He will likely begin 2010 in Hi-A, to keep him and Cody Johnson at different levels, but he should see AA sometime during the season.


10) Cody Johnson, LF (2009 – Power 80; First Base Rate 45; Discipline 30; Speed 52)

Johnson was the Braves first round pick in the 2006 draft, whose main talent is raw power. In 2007 Johnson posted the #2 Performance Score in the APY. He struggled a bit in the SAL in 2008, but still managed a Top 25 Score. Then, last season, he took another step forward by posting the #9 Performance Score in the CAR—as a 21yo. While Johnson has plus power skills, and average speed, the power comes at a cost—namely his contact skills are below average and his plate discipline is atrocious. Johnson’s power puts him in a high-ceiling category, but everything else makes his outlook extremely ‘uncertain’. Look for him to take his batting practice displays to AA in 2010.


11) Dimaster Delgado, LHP (2009 – Dominance 66; Stamina 74; HRrate 63; Control 61)

Delgado has posted some pretty impressive numbers (#2 Performance Score in the DSL in 2007; Top 25 Score in the GCL in 2008; #10 Performance Score in the SAL in 2009), but gets lost in a Braves system loaded with high-ceiling pitching talent at the lower levels. Delgado is a legitimate talent himself, possessing a low-90s fastball and a plus Change. While his Curve is currently a below average offering, it shows potential. He also is able to keep the ball down in the zone, and shows above average control. The downside to Delgado is that he needs the Curve to truly be considered a mid-rotation candidate, and without a knockout fastball, his options are limited in relief. Delgado will need to show improvements to his breaking ball in Hi-A in 2010.


12) Zeke Spruill, RHP (2009 – Dominance 55; Stamina 73; HRrate 33; Control 66)

Spruill was the Braves 3rd round choice in 2008, and was so impressive this spring that he spent the 2009 season as a 19yo in the SAL, where he posted a Top 20 Performance Score. At 6’4”, 185lb, he has plenty of projection left in a sinker that is already a 90MPH offering. His Curve, Slider and Change are advanced offerings, albeit with limited upside. Spruill shows advanced pitchability and commands all of his offerings well. On the downside, when Spruill makes a mistake, it tends to be up in the zone, and he did miss time this season to an undisclosed, non-injury related issue. With the upside of a mid-rotation starter, Spruill should begin 2010 in the CAR.



Grade B-


13) Brett Oberholtzer, LHP (2009 – Dominance 60; Stamina 70; HRrate74; Control 77)

Braves pitchers took the top three Performance Score spots in the APY in 2009, and that doesn’t even include the APY pitcher of the year, and it was Oberholtzer, the Braves 8th round pick in 2008, who nailed down the #2 slot. Plus command is his calling card, and it allows him to throw any of his three pitches, highlighted by a 90MPH fastball, on any count. Additionally, Oberholtzer keeps the ball down very well and thus far, in 104 professional innings, has only allowed two home runs. The only real negative is that at 6’2”, 230lbs, there may not be a lot of additional projection on his currently ‘fringy’ fastball. With no real punch out offering, he may be looking at an upside of a back of the rotation starter. Oberholtzer will get his first taste of full-season ball in 2010.


14) Andy Otero, LHP (2009 – Dominance 80; Stamina 55; HRrate 62; Control 52)

The diminutive Otero (5’9”, 160lbs) was the best pitcher in the DSL this summer, but has not generated the buzz that one might expect from his performance, due to his size. Over his last eight DSL starts, Otero posted a 0.46 ERA, with a 61:12 K:BB ratio in 39 innings. Despite his stature, Otero is an aggressive, attacking, pitcher that features a low-90s fastball and a potentially plus curve. Like many young pitchers, his change is an underdeveloped offering at this point. With an extremely precocious feel for pitching, Otero has success keeping the ball down in the zone and shows above average control. There isn’t a tremendous record of success for 5’9” pitchers at the Major League level, still Otero is only 17yo, and still hasn’t matured physically, so there is the possibility that he hasn’t finished growing. The Braves will bring him to the U.S. in 2010, and he will make his stateside debut in either the GCL or APY.


15) J.J. Hoover, RHP (2009 – Dominance 69; Stamina 71; HRrate 44; Control 70)

The Braves selected Hoover in the 10th round of the 2008 draft then signed him for third round money. His 2009 showing in the SAL was, for all practical purposes, his debut, as he posted a Top 25 Performance Score. With plus command, Hoover offers a low-90s fastball and, both, a curve and change that have plus potential. The downside is that Hoover is a 6’3”, 230lb, 22yo, who will likely open the season in the CAR. There isn’t a tremendous amount of projection left in him, and right now he appears to have the upside of a mid-rotation starter. He will have to make improvements to his secondary offerings to achieve that.


16) Robinson Lopez, RHP (2009 – Dominance 61; Stamina 64; HRrate 63; Control 61)

Perhaps, the pitcher with the highest remaining upside in the Braves system, Lopez posted the #7 Performance Score in the GCL in his debut after signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2008. With a low-90s fastball, a potentially plus curve, and a solid change, Lopez has the makings of a mid-rotation starter. All of his performance skills rate above average, and he couples that with an advanced approach. With only 49 professional innings, Lopez just needs experience. He could open the 2010 season in full-season A-ball, but is more likely to debut later this summer in the APY.


17) Brett DeVall, LHP (2009 – Dominance 39; Stamina 71; HRrate 52; Control 61)

DeVall, the Braves supplemental round choice in 2008, is a difficult prospect to rank, because his performance has earned him one ranking, and lingering elbow injuries, that may yet result in surgery, force another. Nonetheless, when he did appear in a limited number of games this past season, he earned a Top 20 Performance Score in the SAL. When healthy, DeVall features a low 90s fastball and a Curve and Change that are potential plus offerings. He does a good job of controlling all of his offerings, and induces a fair amount of groundouts. While reports from instructional this fall were positive, health is his biggest negative. Look for DeVall to debut in the CAR, at some point in 2010.


18) Jose Ortegano, LHP (2009 – Dominance 58; Stamina 62; HRrate 63; Control 63)

The ceiling of Braves pitching prospects begins to get lower by the time we get to Ortegano, who despite the #13 Performance in the Sal in 2008 and the #14 Performance Score in the CAR in 2009, profiles as having the upside of, no more than, a back of the rotation starter. Like many Braves pitchers, Ortegano’s top skill is his control, as he is able to throw at will any of his 90Mph fastball, plus curve, and above average change. He also does a solid job of keeping the ball down in the zone. But at only 6’1”, 155lbs, as a 22yo, there are questions regarding his durability in a starting role. Ortegano, will have to continue disproving the doubters in AA, in 2010.


19) Jesus Sucre, C (2009 – Power 52; First Base Rate 41; Discipline 74; Speed 37)

Rarely do you find a guy with a .639 career OBP over five professional seasons make a top prospect list, but Sucre showed marked improvement in 2009, posting Top 20 Performance scores in both the SAL and CAR. The biggest positive, in addition to his improvement, is that Sucre will open the 2010 campaign as a 21yo—likely in AA. Defensively, he has all of the tools of a first rate backstop, including a plus-arm. It has been the offensive side of the ball where he has struggled. This has primarily been due to two factors: 1) An unwillingness to work deeper into the count, and 2) a tendency to try to pull everything when things go bad. Sucre made significant improvements last season, but still has a ways to go. Remember, offensive skills are often slower developing in Catcher prospects. The improvements will need to continue, but there is potential here.


20) David Hale, RHP –

We expected Hale to go around the 4th round on draft day, so we have to admit to being a bit surprised that the Braves tabbed him in round #2. A heady, athletic player, Hale’s best offering is a low- to mid-90s fastball. While his slider shows signs of eventually becoming a Major League caliber pitch, his change is very much a work-in-process. More importantly, his fastball, while possessing good velocity, has a tendency to come in fairly straight, and is a much more hittable offering than it should be. Control is also a problem at times. While the Braves are likely to continue to develop Hale as a starter, we see a back of the bullpen role a more likely destination. Look for Hale to open 2010 in full-season A-ball.


21) Chris Masters, LHP (2009 – Dominance 79; Stamina 74; HRrate 74; Control 75)

The Braves selected Masters in the 11th round this June, and even they had to be surprised by his Performance, which netted him the League’s #3 Performance Score. Although he has a low-90s fastball, his secondary offerings are really his bread and butter. Masters showed unexpectedly solid control last season, and a solid ability to pitch down in the zone. The downside is that at 6’0”, 230lbs, 22yo, Masters isn’t very athletic, nor does he portend much additional projection. Look for Masters to begin 2010 in full-season, A-ball.


22) Mycal Jones, SS (2009 – Power 59; First Base Rate 44; Discipline 53; Speed 79)

Although we had Jones rated around the #150 mark on draft day, the Braves took the speedy, athletic, Jones in the 4th round. Plus-plus speed is his primary skill, and he used it to swipe 19 bases over 270 PAs in his debut. He also possesses solid range and hands, and an average arm. Offensively, he could post average power numbers from the shortstop position, but he doesn’t make the kind of contact, or get on base as frequently as we would like, in order to be a true top of the order threat. The biggest negative that we see, is that Jones will play the bulk of 2010 as a 23yo—likely opening the year in Low-A. His bat is not advanced enough to move as rapidly as would be required to be a Major League regular by his 25th birthday—this is not a good sign for long-term upside. Because of this we remain skeptical on Jones.


23) Scott Diamond, LHP (2009 – Dominance 51; Stamina 72; HRrate 67; Control 50)

Diamond continues to get ‘dinged’ by the scouting community, because he was a non-drafted free agent, who signed in the late summer of 2007. Yet in 2008, he still managed to post the #9 Performance Score in the CAR and followed that up with the #12 score in the SOL in 2009. While Diamond doesn’t possess a true-out pitch, he possesses good pitchability, keeping the ball down in the zone with a 90MPH fastball, and at least average Curve and Change. While his upside isn’t especially high, he has now had success at AA, and the 23yo will open up 2010 in AAA, with a chance to see Atlanta at some point later this season.


24) Cole Rohrbough, LHP (2009 – Dominance 47; Stamina 67; HRrate 37; Control 41)

Although his 2009 season didn’t merit it, Rohrobough holds down this spot, because he entered the season with significant expectations, and we have yet to understand why he failed to pitch up to them. His stuff is too good to pitch this badly, and he has a track record of past success. With a low- to mid-90s fastball and a plus curve, Rohrbough should be seeing better results than the .280 Average against him in 2009. While his change is still in need of considerable work, only 22yo, his ceiling remains that of a #2/#3 starter. Hopefully he will figure it out in AA in 2010.



Grade C+ Prospects –

25) Cory Gearrin, RHP; 26) Cory Harrilchak, CF; 27) Michael Dunn, RP; 28) Tyler Stovall, LHP; 29) Willie Cabrera, LF; 30) Riann Spanjer-Furstenburg, 1B; 31) Brandon Hicks, SS; 32) Caleb Brewer, RHP; 33) Luis Valdez, RP; 34) Danillo Alvarez, RP; 35) Luis Sumoza, RF; 36) Thomas Berryhill, RHP; 37) Richard Sullivan, LHP; 38) Benino Pruneda, RP; 39) Jeff Lyman, RP.



Grade C Prospects –

Juan Abreu; Eric Campbell; Yoel Campusano; Paul Clemens; Kyle Cofield; Erik Cordier; Matthew Crim; Rudy Darrow; David Francis; Ty’Relle Harris; Diory Hernandez; Travis Jones; Stephen Marek; Cole Miles; Aaron Norcraft; Angelo Paulino; Cory Rasmus; Todd Redmond; Concepcion Rodriguez; Gerardo Rodriguez; Edison Sanchez; Jacob Thompson; Jonny Venters; Ryan Weber; Matt Young.



Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.


You can find an explanation of our grades here Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season. For additional information on our rankings methodology, see our recent Mailbag article here This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions.

TEAM #5 – Tampa Bay Rays

Jennings is about ready to become part of the Majors speediest Outfields

Our 2010 Prospect eGuide is less than a week away. If you have enjoyed this series, then check out the details here: http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/exclusive-offer.html .

There is a bit of a gap between the Cubs at #6 and the Tampa Bay Rays at #5, as we are truly down to the elite systems in baseball. The Rays have six legitimate Top 100 prospects, and their eleven that earn grades of ‘B+” or better is three more than the next closest team that we have reviewed thus far. While the Rays have significantly more pitching than hitting in their Minor League system, their collection of arms likely surpasses any team other than perhaps the Texas Rangers. With players like Jennings, Hellickson, Davis and Brignac all likely to graduate in 2010 and younger players like Beckham, Colome, Lobstein, Bailey, and Malm, there is a good mix between players ready to contribute and depth at the lower levels. Players like Colome, Guevera and Wilking Rodriguez are the fruits of a revamped Latin American effort. When you combine the strength of their Minor League system with a likely 25-man roster average age of barely 27yo, you have one of the brightest futures in all of baseball. The only thing that keeps the Rays from ranking even higher is that they don’t have the total system depth of the four teams that rank in front of them.

Grade A


1) Desmond Jennings, CF (2009 Performance Scores – Power 56; First Base Rate 77; Discipline 71; Speed 79)

In a normal year, Jennings’ 2009 SOL performance would have gotten a lot more press, but despite earning League MVP honors, Jennings played in the shadow of Jason Heyward in the SOL before a late season to promotion to AAA. As it was he still posted the #3 Performance Score in the SOL and the #2 Performance Score in the INT, clearly establishing himself among the game’s elite, and making people forget about his disappointing 2008. A highly gifted athlete, Jennings is certainly at least a 4-tool talent, as he possesses plus contact and plate discipline skills to go along with his plus-plus speed. While his power is his biggest weakness, it too should end up at least average by the time all is said and done. Defensively he is a potential gold glove talent that should likely move B.J. Upton to right when Jennings joins the Rays for good, sometime likely in 2010. Once that happens, the Rays, with Crawford in left, Jennings in Center, and Upton in right; will have one of the speediest OFs ever assembled. One of the few truly top of the order game changers in the currently Minors, Jennings profiles to be somewhere between solid average offensively and superstar. While he is likely to return to AAA, the 23yo almost certainly will take over CF in Tampa sometime during the season.


2) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP (2009 – Dominance 79; Stamina 72; HRrate 54; Control 67)

We have been among Hellickson’s biggest advocates since his 2006 performance in the NYP. In six stops since the 2006 season he has posted Performance Score Ranks of #1, #2, #1, #2, #3, #2—a record unmatched by any pitcher currently in the Minor Leagues. Hellickson succeeds by using a low-90s fastball and a plus change—both pitches that he throws with plus command. While his Curve is a Major League caliber pitch, it lags behind the other two. However, it is Hellickson’s ‘pitchability’ and baseball IQ that clearly separate him from the crowd, as he is ‘in charge’ every time that he takes the mound. Hellickson is the textbook definition of a Major League #2 starter and should have a long productive Major League career. His biggest problem will be breaking in to an already ‘stacked’ Ray’s rotation. Expect him to begin the season in AAA, but he will be the first starter called up for a Big League shot.

Grade A-

3) Matt Moore, LHP (2009 – Dominance 79; Stamina 65; HRrate 57; Control 23)

Coming from an unheralded New Mexico prep program, and quite raw, somehow Moore was lost in the shadows of bigger names in the 2007 draft. Even in the Rays’ system he was barely an afterthought in a draft that netted David Price. But when the astounding success of prep pitchers from the 2007 draft is chronicled, it will not only contain the names of Rick Porcello, Madison Bumgarner, Jarrod Parker, Jordan Zimmerman, Chris Withrow, Tim Alderson and Casey Crosby—but it will include an 8th round pick named Matt Moore. Moore’s two year strikeout rate of 12.8 batters per 9IP is among the best in the Minor’s, among starters, over that period. He posted the #2 Performance Score in the APY in 2008, and then followed that up with the #4 score in the SAL in 2009. Moore succeeds with a three-pitch repertoire that has significant late movement and that he keeps down in the zone. While his low-90s fastball rates as a plus pitch, it is only second in his arsenal to a devastating curve. His only weakness is that, still raw, he has difficulty with command. Moore has front of the rotation stuff if he is able to harness his control. He will begin 2010 as a 20yo in the FSL.


4) Wade Davis, RHP (2009 – Dominance 62; Stamina 70; HRrate 48; Control 44)

Drafted in the third round of the 2004 draft, seemingly the world has been far more enamored with the hulking, 6’5”, 220lb Davis, than have we. It’s not that Davis isn’t a solid prospect, and, as evidenced by his six 2009 Major League starts, he has a high ‘certainty’ of performing in a Big League rotation. It’s just that, in Davis, we have a 767 inning Minor League track record, that has included eight stints, and has only produced two (#3 in NYP in 2005 & #4 in FSL in 2007) Top 10 Performance Scores. That looks, to us, far more like a middle rotation innings eater, without the ceiling of the three pitchers that we have rated ahead of him. Featuring a low-90s fastball and a plus curve, Davis has two offerings that will play well at the Major League level. However, neither his slider nor his change portend success as of yet. Additionally, Davis’ control has never rated more than average.
Davis will compete for a rotation spot this spot this spring, but if it were us, we would transition him to the bullpen and get him out of Hellickson’s path.


5) Alex Colome, RHP (2009 – Dominance 78; Stamina 72; HRrate 73; Control 41)

Colome was perhaps the biggest riser in the Rays’ system in 2009 after finishing outside the Top 30 Performances Scores in the APY in 2008, he put everything together with a breakout 2009 in the NYP—finishing with the League’s #2 Performance Score. Although already 21yo, Colome still has projection left in what is currently a mid-90s fastball. His Curve also shows plus potential, and he does a good job of keeping both pitches down in the zone. His negative is that his command, while improved in 2009, remains a big issue, as he has averaged nearly 5.0 walks per 9IP in his career. If Colome is able to improve his changeup, he has the ceiling of a front of the rotation starter…if not, his fastball/curveball combination should be successful in a back of the bullpen role. Colome will get his first taste of full-season ball in 2010, and it would not surprise us to see him move rapidly this year.


6) Tim Beckham, SS (2009 – Power 50; First Base Rate 48; Discipline 49; Speed 49)

It has been a disappointing beginning for the #1 overall pick in the 2008 draft, as in over 700 PAs, Beckham has just 7 HRs, has posted a .701 OPS, and has fanned at 22% rate. His 2009 SAL Performance didn’t even rate Top 25. To make matters worse, the premium value that the Rays assigned to him as a shortstop seems to be in question now, as he has gotten bigger, slower, and looks destined to move to 3B or RF. As a shortstop he projects to have above average offensive skills across the board…as an OF corner they all become average to below average. Barely 20yo, we haven’t given up on him, as Beckham has plenty of time to develop, and he will get a chance to do it in the FSL in 2010.

Grade B+

7) Reid Brignac, SS (2009 – Power 49; First Base Rate 43; Discipline 61; Speed 42)

Another player that hasn’t excited us to the levels that he has others, Brignac is at a critical juncture as he heads into the 2010 season. With over 2600 Minor league PAs under his belt, Brignac hasn’t posted an OPS above .800 or a Performance Score in a League Top Ten since his #3 Ranking in the CAL in 2006. Now 24yo, he enters the Spring competing for a roster spot as a reserve, and clearly behind a guy with a career OPS in the .740s. From where we stand, that doesn’t have the makings of a significant Major League career. While all of his skills grade as average, none stand out. Defensively, the word capable comes to mind. Perhaps his best characteristic is his hard-nosed approach and high baseball IQ. While we feel that Brignac has the upside of an average everyday Major League shortstop, it would also not surprise us to find him in a career utility role.


8) Kyle Lobstein, LHP (2009 – Dominance 67; Stamina 74; HRrate 44; Control 57)

Lobstein was the Rays’ second round pick in 2008, to whom they gave first round money, and whom didn’t make his professional debut until the NYP this summer where he posted the League’s #5 Performance Score. At 6’3, 200lbs and 20yo, there is still upside projection for Lobstein, but currently his fastball is a high-80s offering. Both his curve and change show potential and when combined with a high degree of pitchability and above average command, the package is there for Lobstein to potentially become a middle of the rotation starter. Lobstein will get his first taste of full-season ball in 2010.


9) Luke Bailey, C -

Bailey spent most of last spring as a near certain mid-first round pick, until an April elbow injury forced him to have Tommy John surgery, and caused him to slide. We still had him at #41 on our draft day board and consider the fact that the Rays tabbed him in the 4th round to be a significant bargain. The key to Bailey’s future value will be whether or not the injury causes him to move from behind the plate. While his athleticism and make-up when combined with above average power and contact skills make him a premium catching prospect, they become at best average skills on a corner. We expect Bailey to get on the field sometime in 2010, likely in a short-season league.


10) Matt Sweeney, 3B (2009 – Power 74; First Base Rate 58; Discipline 68; Speed 42)

Injuries have significantly cut into the 2006, 8th round draft choice’s developmental curve, as he has missed significant parts of the last three seasons. When he has played though he has put up solid numbers, as evidenced by his #5 Performance Score in the CAL in 2009. Sweeney possesses plus power potential and strike zone management skills. While he can get a bit over-aggressive at times, he has the bat speed to make solid contact. Unfortunately, it is speed and defense that are his limiting factors—even before the lengthy list of injuries. With a questionable glove at third base, Sweeney looks to us to profile best as a left fielder or first baseman. To make it in the Majors at either of those positions is going to require Sweeney to reach most of his considerable ceiling. If not, his left-handed bat should at least earn him a career in a Reserve/Platoon role. Still only 21yo. Sweeney will open 2010 in AA.


11) Alex Torres, LHP (2009 – Dominance 65; Stamina 71; HRrate 75; Control 26)

Both Torres and Sweeney above were acquired this past summer from the Angels in the Kazmir deal. 2009 was somewhat of a breakout season for Torres, who posted the #7 Performance Score in the CAL. With a high degree of pitchability, Torress uses a heavy high-80s fastball, and potentially above average curve and slider to induce plenty of groundouts. On the downside, his change is still very much a work-in-process and his command is poor. At only 5’10”, 160lbs, there isn’t a lot of additional projection, but Torres has the upside of a back of the rotation starter. He’ll begin 2010 as a 22yo in AA.

Grade B

12) Nick Barnese, RHP (2009 – Dominance 44; Stamina 67; HRrate 63; Control 49)

After posting the #3 Performance Score in the NYP in 2008, Barnese wasn’t nearly as dominate in 2009, as his strikeout rate fell from 11.5 per 9IP in 2008 to only 7.5 last season, as he moved up to full-season A-ball. Barnese attacks hitters with a low-90s fastball. His Curve and Change both show potential. On the downside, with somewhat of an uncontrolled arm action, Barnese sometimes gets himself into battles with his command. Additionally his secondary offerings remain raw. Barnese has the upside of a solid mid-rotation starter. Only a 20yo, he will open up 2010 at Hi-A.


13) Jake McGee, LHP (2009 – Dominance 72; Stamina 32; HRrate 34; Control 43)

Once one of the Minor’s best starting pitching prospects, McGee saw his career derailed by 2008 Tommy John surgery. While he did get on the field for 30 innings, late last summer, there are still big questions as to how far he’ll return. At his best, McGee possesses a mid-90s fastball, a plus Curve, and a Change that has the potential to be a plus offering. However, McGee has always struggled with control and control takes the longest to return after TJ surgery, so it remains to be seen what effect the surgery will have on him. Prior to the surgery, McGee had the ceiling of a front of the rotation star. Now there are whispers that his role may end up in the back of the bullpen. In either case, we don’t have tremendous expectations for him in AA in 2010, as it will likely require an entire season for rehabilitation. If all goes well, he may have a shot at a Big League roster spot in 2011.


14) Jeff Malm, 1B –

We had Malm ticketed as a second round pick on draft day, so we feel that the Rays tabbing him in the 5th round is pretty much a bargain, even if they paid second round money to sign him. For the most part a one-trick pony, Malm’s ‘trick’ is an explosive bat that promises plus raw power and solid contact skills. However, at 6’3” 225 lbs, he lacks any real speed and is likely relegated to a first base role—setting the bar for a prep player exceedingly high. Malm’s bat has enough of a ceiling to succeed there, making him a legitimate prospect. Expect him to begin 2010 later this summer in the NYP.


15) Hector Guevara, MI (2009 – Power 75; First Base Rate 55; Discipline 72; Speed 51)

One of the Rays’ top International signings in 2008, Guerva put on an offensive show in the VSL this past summer, posting the #1 Performance Score in the League. Still tremendously raw, Guerva shows above average power potential and contact skills. Most impressive, however, is that even though he is an attacking, aggressive, hitter, he shows tremendous strike zone management skills…significantly precocious for a young Latin American player. Defensively he lacks tremendous speed and may not have the lateral movement required to stay in the middle infield. To us he profiles best at either third base or right field. Fortunately, his bat should play anywhere on the diamond, and he will likely be one of the more exciting players in either the GCL or APY in 2010.

Grade B-

16) Wilking Rodriguez, RHP (2009 – Dominance 65; Stamina 60; HRrate 46; Control 67)

Rodriguez made a splash in his U.S. debut, posting a top ten Performance score in the APY as a 19yo. With a low-90s fastball and plus curve combo, both of which he commands well, there is a significant upside potential here. While his change is very much a work-in-process, he is relatively athletic and possesses sound mechanics—offering a confidence in further projection. We would expect to see him make his full-season, class-A, debut in 2010.


17) Jason McEachern, RHP (2009 – Dominance 48; Stamina 72; HRrate 44; Control 70)

McEachern doesn’t earn a lot of recognition from the scouting community, as his fastball is a fringy high-80s offering. Still, he used it along with a potentially above average Curve and Change to post the #4 Performance Score in the NYP in 2009. At 6’2, 185lbs, and 19yo, there is still projection with McEachern. While we don’t anticipate him ever being much more than a back of the rotation starter, his high pitchability provides a bit of comfort on the ‘certainty’ side. Look for McEachern to get his first taste of full-season A-ball in 2010.


18) Aneury Rodriguez, RHP (2009 – Dominance 49; Stamina 69; HRrate 26; Control 48)

Rodriguez apparently felt the pressure of being dealt straight up for Jason Hammel at the beginning of the 2009 season and got off to a horrendous start, posting a 6.01 ERA in 18 pre-all star break starts. It wasn’t a lost season however, as his struggles caused him to adjust, and in the second half of the season his ERA was a miniscule 2.22, allowing him to climb to the League’s #16 Performance Score. With a 90mph fastball, and a potentially above average Change and Curve, there is enough stuff here for Rodriguez to become a quality back of the rotation guy. However, with his seemingly split personality in 2009 it is difficult to get a read on which Rodriguez we can expect to see going forward. He’ll likely open up 2010 in AAA, but in an already stacked organization, and with higher upside players in front of him, another trade may yet be in the offing.


19) Kyeong Kang, RF (2009 – Power 67; First Base Rate 65; Discipline 50; Speed 54)

We’d love to tell you that Kang was the first fruits of an expanded Pacific Rim focus by the Rays, but the reality is that he is a 2006 draft and follow from an Alabama junior college. Although not a high ceiling prospect, Kang displays above average power potential and contact skills, with solid strike zone management and speed. Unfortunately, he is defensively challenged, and is likely limited to either first base or left field. This makes it likely that he is destined for a reserve or platoon role. Expect Kang to open 2010 in Hi-A as a 22yo.


20) Todd Glaesmann, OF –

Glaesmann is a ‘toolsy’, athletic outfielder whom we had projected as an early 4th round pick on draft day. The Rays selected him in the third round, and signed him to sandwich round money. While not a knock on Glaesmann, this was not a favorite move of ours from the 2009 draft. The good news is that he is projectable with all five tools. Defensively, he is solid, with the speed and arm to play either center or right field. We will need to see some on the field production from Glaesmann to rate him any higher than this. It won’t likely come until the APY season opens later this summer.


21) Alex Cobb, RHP (2009 – Dominance 55; Stamina 70; HRrate 57; Control 67)

Most times when you have a prep right hander whose best pitch is his curveball, there is a strong predilection for the scouting community to look the other way. Such has been the case for Cobb since he signed as a 4th round pick in 2006. But Cobb gets the most from his plus curve/low-90s fastball combo, accentuated by a solid change, using it to post a Top 20 Performance Score in the FSL in 2009. While he doesn’t present a high ceiling, Cobb looks like a solid bet as a back of the rotation starter. Expect him to kick off 2010 in AA.


22) Matt Gorgen, RP (2009 – Dominance 79; Stamina 29; HRrate 70; Control 54)

While we’re not big fans of Minor League relief pitchers, Gorgen showed enough in 2009, with his low-90s fastball and plus slider, to not only post a top 20 Performance Score in the FSL, but to also convince us that there is a potential Major League bull pen role in his future. He’ll need to further refine his slider and tighten up his command, but he could end up in a set-up role. Gorgen will likely return to AA to open up the 2010 season.


23) Joe Cruz, RHP (2009 – Dominance 59; Stamina 64; HRrate 56; Control 60)

Cruz is a projection guy, whose production has not yet caught up with his potential, as he offers a mid-90s fastball, and three developing secondary offerings. At 6’4”, 195lbs, and 21yo, his promise lies in his projectability, as he could very well end up with a heater that hits the hi-90s. In 2009, his Performance Score fell barely outside of the Top 30 in the SAL, but Cruz is still in the rotation, and we feel his most potential lies as a late inning reliever. Look for him to continue in the rotation in Hi-A in 2010, but eventually expect the Rays to convert him.


24) Ty Morrison, LF (2009 – Power 38; First Base Rate 69; Discipline 38; Speed 79)

Morrison is a speedy, toolsy, athletic outfielder, who shows raw tools that haven’t developed into producible skills. While he is unlikely to ever provide more than average power, he does possess plus speed, and above average contact skills. Our biggest concern is his 25% strikeout rate—far too high for a potential top of the order threat. Additionally, he isn’t the most disciplined defender, and if he has to move off of center, his only real option is left because he lacks the requisite arm strength for right. Morrison is likely to see his first taste of full-season A-ball in 2010.



Grade C+ Prospects –

25) Roan Salas, 3B; 26) Tyler Bortnick, SS; 27) Kevin James, LHP; 28) John Jaso, C; 29) Jake Jeffries, C; 30) Fernando Perez, CF; 31) David Newman, LHP; 32) Scott Shuman, RP; 33) Zach Quate, RP; 34) Jacob Partridge, LHP.

Grade C Prospects –

Nevin Ashley; Dustin Biell; Jose Colmenares; Frank de los Santos; Reid Fronk; Devin Fuller; Cesar Guillen; Elliot Johnson; Eduardo Morlan; Omar Navarez; Raymer Oliveros; Shawn O’Malley; Cody Rogers; Heath Rollins; Ryan Royster; Alejandro Segovia; Michael Sheridan; Trevor Shull; Albert Suarez; R.J. Swindle; Mark Thomas; Isaias Velasquez.

Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.

You can find an explanation of our grades here Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season. For additional information on our rankings methodology, see our recent Mailbag article here This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions

TEAM #6 – Chicago Cubs

Castro enhanced his fast rising reputation with a solid AZFL performance

Our 2010 Prospect eGuide is only a week away. If you have enjoyed this series, then check out the details here: http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/01/exclusive-offer.html .


We never know how things are going to come out when we start these rankings, but our biggest surprise has to be the Chicago Cubs coming in at #6. It’s not that the Cubs don’t have some talented players, it’s just that they graduated five players to the Majors in 2009—from an already weak system, and if you had evaluated the team in early June their prospect hopes looked pretty dim. Then Starlin Castro put together one of the most ‘helium’ filled seasons in the Minors, Brett Jackson was drafted and surprised most everyone with his play, Andrew Cashner located his missing command, Kyler Burke finally had the breakout season everyone had been waiting for, John Gaub became one of the Minors’ best relief prospects and they had a huge haul of young prospects from the Pacific Rim. Suddenly it is like an entirely different organization. The strength of the organization lies in its depth, as only our top three organizations have a longer list of ‘C’ or higher prospects. There also is a good balance between high-ceiling and high-floor players. Additionally, likely no organization in baseball works the Pacific Rim harder than the Cubs, and it looks like they are about to reap some of the fruits of their efforts…but everything isn’t roses for the Cubs, as once you get past the top nine prospects, pitchers make up all but eight of the next twenty-five spots. Perhaps more importantly, few of the Cubs’ prospects will be ready to contribute before late 2011 or 2012, so it will likely be another couple of years before the impact of the rebounded farm system is felt at the Big League level.



Grade A


1) Starling Castro, SS (2009 Performance Scores – Power 36; First Base Rate 57; Discipline 76; Speed 67)

After back-to-back #5 Performance Score finishes in the DSL in 2007 and the AZL in 2008, Castro’s breakout performance in 2009 shouldn’t quite come as the shock that it apparently did, but the 19yo burst onto the scene in a big way last season. Skipping the MWL and starting the year in the FSL, Castro posted the #6 Performance Score in that circuit, before ending the season with the #6 Performance Score in the SOL. Then to put an exclamation point on the season, in the Fall, he posted the Top Performance Score by a position player in the AZFL. Castro is highly projectable, highly athletic player, with a solid work ethic and good baseball instincts. Although he has above average speed and solid defensive skills, it his precocious ability to make contact that is his best skill. While not a tremendous power hitter currently, he should become at least average for the middle infield. The biggest drawback to Castro is that he just needs experience. With only 111 AA ABs, expect Castro to return to West Tennessee to open the season. But make no mistake, Castro is on the fast track and has an all-star caliber ceiling.


2) Josh Vitters, 3B (2009 – Power 69; First Base Rate 30; Discipline 73; Speed 44)

Vitters was the best all-around prep position player in California in 2007, when the Cubs selected him with the #3 overall pick, but he struggled in 2007 and then again in 2008. But in 2009, Vitters put together an amazing hot streak at the end of May on his way to posting the #2 Performance Score in the MWL. While a second half promotion to the FSL didn’t go quite as well, he still finished with a Top 20 score in that circuit. While there remain some questions about Vitters’ long-term ability to stay at the hot corner, he appears to have the arm strength to at least make a go at it at the next level. Vitters has an aggressive approach at the plate that has produced only 28 walks in over 800 PAs. Still he makes exceptional contact (16% strikeout rate) for a hitter with plus power potential. Vitters has the ceiling of an all-star caliber third baseman, and will likely begin 2010 at AA—as a 20yo.


Grade A-

3) Brett Jackson, CF (2009 – Power 72; First Base Rate 76; Discipline 41; Speed 62)

Over the course of the Spring, Jackson fell a bit in our estimation, with significant problems making contact and diminished power, as we at one time considered him a mid-first round draft pick. On draft day, we had him rated at #42, and we were actually a bit surprised that the Cubs tabbed him toward the end of the first round. That said, no collegian position player drafted last June impressed us more in their debut, as Jackson finished with the #3 Performance Score in the MWL. We would like to see him continue his performance at higher levels in 2010, before we will be totally convinced, but he is rising in our estimation. A tremendous athlete, Jackson possesses above average power and speed, coupled with plus on-base skills. While he showed significantly better strike zone management skills in the pros than he did in college, he still whiffed in 23% of his PAs. Expect Jackson to begin 2010 in the FSL, but he could see AA before mid-season.


4) Andrew Cashner, RHP (2009 – Dominance 46; Stamina 59; HRrate 75; Control 45)

The Cubs’ first round pick in 2008 was abysmal in his debut, but was markedly better in 2009. Originally drafted as a closer, a position we expect him to return to in the Majors, the Cubs continue to develop him as a starter. With a mid-90s fastball, and an above average slider, Cashner has two-thirds of a required repertoire…unfortunately, the change is still a below average offering. However his command, which has vacillated between fringy and awful, is his biggest weakness. At 6’6”, 210lbs, Cashner can be an intimidating presence and he possesses the upside of a potential front of the rotation starter, with the floor of a likely dominating back of the bullpen guy. Expect him to begin 2010 in AA, and we should have a much clearer picture of his future by this time next season.


Grade B+

5) Hak-Ju Lee, SS (2009 – Power 40; First Base Rate 76; Discipline 63; Speed 79)

One of the Cubs more promising Pacific Rim signings, the 20yo Lee made his professional debut in 2009, by posting the #2 Performance Score in the NWL. While not an offensive slouch, defense is his greatest asset, as Lee has good lateral motion, a strong arm, soft-hands, and tremendous baseball instincts. Offensively he possesses plus speed, plus contact skills and above average plate discipline. His only real negative is a slight, 6’2”, 170lb frame that produces below average power. Lee has the potential to be an average everyday Major League shortstop, with gold glove caliber defensive skills. He’ll get his first taste of full-season A-ball in 2010, and could eventually push Castro to secondbase.


6) Kyler Burke, RF (2009 – Power 78; First Base Rate 72; Discipline 56; Speed 76)

The Padres selected Burke in the sandwich round of the 2006, and he had posted 3 dreadful seasons before a breakout 2009, where he finished with the #5 Performance score in the MWL. It was a return trip to that circuit, so we are still somewhat cautious about the results, but he did make significant strike zone management improvements going from a 25% strikeout rate in 2008 to an 18% in 2009. Burke possesses above average power potential and contact skills. While he isn’t tremendously fast, he uses excellent base-running instincts to produce above average results. Defensively he is a plus defender with an exceptional arm. Burke has the ceiling of an average, everyday, Major League right-fielder. Even if he comes up short, he should see plenty of left-handed At Bats as a 4th OF platoon type. Still only 21yo, Burke will likely begin 2010 in AA.


7) Jay Jackson, RHP (2009 – Dominance 74; Stamina 70; HRrate 41; Control 62)

2009 was an odd season for Jackson, as he started by dominating SOL hitters (Top 10 Performance Score), before the team demoted him, for what remains uncertain reasons, to the FSL (#4 Performance Score), before finishing up the year with a solid start in AAA. With a four-pitch repertoire, that is centered on a low- to mid-90s fastball and features three potentially plus pitches, Jackson has an attacking style, that sometimes causes battles with control. Jackson has the potential to be a front of the rotation force. He is likely to begin 2010 in AA, before spending most of the year in AAA. He could appear in Chicago before the end of the season, but a 2011 date is more likely.


Grade B

8) Logan Watkins, 2B (2009 – Power 31; First Base Rate 74; Discipline 77; Speed 68)

The Cubs drafted Watkins in the 21st round of the 2008 draft, and paid him 3rd round money to keep him from honoring his college commitment. Now in two seasons he has recorded a Top 10 score in the AZL in his debut, and the #5 Performance Score in the NWL in 2009. Watkins is an excellent athlete with plus contact, plate discipline, and speed skills. Currently the Cubs have him playing second base alongside Hak-Ju Lee, but we feel that he profiles best in center field. On the downside, Watkins is homerless in his first 359 professional At Bats. While we believe he will add power as he matures, he is unlikely to ever hit more than 10-15 home runs per year. What Watkins needs most of all at the moment is experience. Look for the 20yo to get his first taste of full-season ball in 2010 in the MWL.


9) D.J. LeMahieu, 2B (2009 – Power 25; First Base Rate 78; Discipline 73; Speed 35)

LeMahieu had predominantly played shortstop prior to 2009, but in anticipation of a professional career, shifted to second base at LSU this past spring, before becoming the Cubs’ second round pick in June. LeMahieu’s contact and plate discipline skills rate as plus—especially for the middle infield, and he projects to have at least average power. The negatives are that, even at second, LeMahieu doesn’t possess tremendous quickness or speed. If he can’t hold down that position on a regular basis, he is likely destined for a utlity role. Expect to see LeMahieu open 2010 in the FSL.



10) John Gaub, RP (2009 – Dominance 75; Stamina 25; HRrate 48; Control 38)

Acquired in the same deal that netted the Cubs Chris Archer, Gaub had a breakout 2009, that lasted all of the way through the AZFL season, and squarely placed him on the prospect radar screen. While Gaub possesses a fastball that is a mid-90s offering, his best pitch is his plus slider that devastates left-handed hitters. Unfortunately, there isn’t much in the way of off-speed offerings, and Gaub still issues way too many free passes. While Gaub’s ceiling is that of a solid Major League back of the bullpen guy, the plus that he provides is a solid floor at that of an above average ‘LOOGY’. Gaub still needs a bit more seasoning, so expect him to open the season in AAA, but the Cubs are planning on using him in Chicago by the second-half.


Grade B-

11) Chris Archer, RHP (2009 – Dominance 65; Stamina 61; HRrate 77; Control 25)

Over the last 18 months, the Cubs have made a number of deals where they have acquired ‘fringy’ Minor League pitching prospects for Major League veterans with expiring contracts. The Cubs acquired Archer after the 2008 season in just such a deal, and Archer has paid off as well as any of them, as the 21yo posted a Top 15 Performance Score in the MWL in 2009. As evidenced by his HRrate score, Archer keeps the ball down and in the park as well as most anyone. He possesses a low-90s fastball and a potentially plus curve. The downside is that his change remains an underdeveloped pitch and fights battles with his control. Archer’s upside is that of a mid-rotation starter, but unless he improves his change and his control, he may not develop into more than a solid bullpen arm. He will open the 2010 season in the FSL.


12) Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP -

Rhee was putting together a monster season in the MWL in 2008, before an elbow injury, and subsequent Tommy John surgery, ended his year and cost him most of 2009. When healthy, Rhee possesses three potentially plus pitches, highlighted by a low-90s fastball. Still only 20yo, if Rhee returns to form, he has the ‘stuff’ of a Major League #2 rotation-type. While he still needs seasoning, he grades high in pitchability and is advanced for his years. The Cubs are likely to send him to the FSL to begin 2010.


13) Jeff Antigua, LHP (2009 – Dominance 66; Stamina 72; HRrate 30; Control 63)

Antigua gets ‘dinged’ by the scouting community for lacking an overpowering fastball, and having a frame that portends only modest projection. We, on the other hand, look at as his 90mph fastball as playable, and focus on a precocious lefty, with above average command of three pitches, including one of the Minors’ better Changes. Only 19yo, Antigua posted the Top Performance score in the NWL, before posting the #7 Performance Score in the MWL after his promotion. His ceiling is that of a solid Major League #3/#4. Expect Antigua to begin 2010 with a return trip to the MWL.


14) Chris Carpenter, RHP (2009 – Dominance 68; Stamina 67; HRrate 66; Control 51)

The Cubs 2008 third round pick had a breakout 2009, as he logged time at three different levels. He has three potential Major League offerings, highlighted by a low- to mid-90s ‘heavy’ fastball that keeps the ball in the park. The downside is that he experiences occasional bouts of control with his breaking pitches, and has already undergone two arm surgeries. Carpenter has the upside of a mid-rotation innings eater, however, at 24yo he will open 2010 with a return to AA. We would like to see him in AAA by mid-season if he is going to be taken serious as a legitimate prospect.


15) Rafael Dolis, RHP (2009 – Dominance 43; Stamina 52; HRrate 62; Control 27)

After missing the 2008 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the converted shortstop returned to the mound in 2009 with a solid season in the FSL. Dolis’ marquee offering is his mid-90s fastball, however he compliments it nicely with two quality secondary offerings. Still more thrower than pitcher at this stage, Dolis struggles with command—an issue that existed pre-surgery. Having just turned 22yo, Dolis will open the 2010 season in AA. Whether he ultimately ends up in the rotation or the bullpen is dependent on his command that he will have to work on before he advances.


16) Trey McNutt, RHP (2009 – Dominance 68; Stamina 48; HRrate 62; Control 37)

One of the better late round signings from the 2009 draft, McNutt destroyed short season hitters in his debut. Possessing a large 6’4”, 205lb frame that still has projection, McNutt features a low-90s fastball that has the potential to be a mid-90s offering. Additionally, his curve and change have the potential to both be plus pitches. On the downside, McNutt struggles with control at times and will have to work on that if he is to reach his potential of a front part of the rotation starter. Still significantly raw, and will only be 20yo for the 2010 season, McNutt will likely open in the MWL, but should see the FSL before the season is out.


17) Brooks Raley, LHP -

Raley entered the 2009 collegiate season as a potential first round , two-way player. But it was a disappointing campaign for him, and by draft day we had him sliding down to the third round,and many thought that the draft-eligible sophomore would return to Texas A&M for his junior season. The Cubs selected him in the 6th round, and paid him early second-round money. Raley has an advanced five-pitch repertoire, that is highlighted by a plus slider. His fastball has only fringy velocity, so there is considerable debate as to his upside. While we expect Raley to begin the season in the MWL, we won’t get a real read on the 21yos potential until he at least begins facing Hi-A or AA hitters.


18) Matt Spencer, LF (2009 – Power 76; First Base Rate 35; Discipline 62; Speed 39)

Acquired from the A’s in the December deal that sent Jake Fox to Oakland, Spencer has fought ‘what he isn’t’ his entire career. What he is, however, is a very capable bat from the left-side of the plate that should be able to find a home in the Majors as a 4th OF/platoon type player. Spencer has above average power and plate discipline skills, but lacks the speed and arm to play anywhere but LF/1B. While he has solid offensive potential, it likely falls short of an everyday job at those positions. Look for Spencer to open 2010 in AAA and see Chicago at some time before the season is out.


19) Ryan Flaherty, 2B (2009 – Power 77; First Base Rate 54; Discipline 59; Speed 42)

We aren’t as high on Flaherty, as are some, despite the fact that he has 28 Homeruns in his first 700 ABs—from a middle infield position. Why? Let me count the reasons: 1) Flaherty has been one-two years ‘old’ for his level during his first two seasons; 2) Defensively he lacks the lateral movement for SS, the arm strength for 3B, the speed for CF, and may not even stick at 2B; and 3) He lacks the speed to be a top of the order threat, the contact/plate discipline skills to bat in the #2 hole, and the raw offensive prowess to bat #4-#6 . Essentially what you are looking at is a guy who is a below average starter on a second division team or an utlity guy on a contender—batting at the bottom of the lineup. At 23yo, Flaherty has yet to see an AB above low-A. Look for him to open up 2010 in Hi-A, and be in AA before mid-season. From our perspective, he will need to show much more for us to consider him higher.


20) Blake Parker, RP (2009 – Dominance 78; Stamina 26; HRrate 49; Control 42)

As the Cubs are wanton to do as much as anyone, Parker was converted to a pitcher shortly after the Cubs drafted him in the 16th round in 2006. With three pitches that could potentially be Major League quality, there is raw stuff here. Unfortunately it doesn’t appear to have the breadth of a starter, or the true dominance of a quality late inning guy, so Parker looks best suited for a solid middle relief role. Parker will compete for a bullpen job this spring, but will likely begin 2010 in AAA before making his Chicago debut at some point this season.



Grade C+ Prospects –

21) Marwin Gonzelz, 2B; 22) Ryan Searle, RHP; 23) Chris Huseby, RP; 24) Casey Coleman, RHP; 25) Esmailin Caridad,RP; 26) Darwin Barney, SS; 27) Jae-Hoon Ha, RF; 28) Wellington Castillo, C; 29) Jeff Stevens, RP; 30) Tony Thomas, 2B; 31) Tyler Colvin, RF; 32) Mitch Atkins, RHP; 33) Robert Hernandez, RHP; 34) Chris Rusin, LHP; 35) James Adducci, CF; 36) Marquez Smith, 3B; 37) Arismendy Alcantara, SS; 38) Dong-Yub Kim, OF.


Grade C Prospects –

Jeff Beliveay; Justin Bour; Justin Bristow; Sergio Burrel; Alberto Cabrera; David Cales; Hung-Wen Chen; Pin-Chie Chen; Robinson Chirinos; Steve Clevenger; Wes Darvill; Sam Fuld; Brandon Guyer; Austin Kirk; Junior Lake; Oswaldo Martinez; Marcos Mateo; Dan McDaniel; Ronny Morla; Kyung-Min Na; Mike Parisi; Rebel Ridling; Jovan Rosa; James Russell; Nate Samson; Aaron Shafer; Nate Spears; Blair Springfield; Jose Valdez; Tzu-An Wang; Robert Whitenack.


Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.


You can find an explanation of our grades here Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season. For additional information on our rankings methodology, see our recent Mailbag article here This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions.