Coming Attractions

As we start to get into a regular pattern of postings, I thought I’d give you a brief look ahead to what’s coming over the next couple of weeks.

Monday – May 18, 2009… NCAA Top 30

Tuesday – May 19, 2009… Reader Mailbag

Wednesday – May 20, 2009… Hots and Nots

Friday – May 22, 2009… Amateur Draft Top 50 Update

Sunday – May 24, 2009… Do-It-Yourself: Aligning Potential & Performance

Monday – May 25, 2009… Reader Mailbag

Tuesday – May 26, 2009… Breaking Down the Field of 64

Wednesday – May 27, 2009… Hots and Nots

Thursday – May 28, 2009… Amateur Draft Top 50 Update

Saturday – May 30, 2009… Division I Performance Ratings

Hots and Nots - May 13, 2009

Coghlan wastes little time making an impact on the Marlins

The season is finally in full swing. Everyday Minor League hitters are passing the 100AB mark, starting pitchers are approaching 40IP, as the weather warms the players that have been held back in extended Spring training are starting to make their debuts and we are starting to see our first real promotions. Finally we can begin to get a read on actual player trends and not just streaks. This week’s list reflects that, as it is loaded with players who are establishing themselves as elite prospects.

Hot Hitters -

1) Chris Coghlan, 2B, FLA – You know you are hitting the ball well when the big league club is willing to call you up and play you out of position just to get your bat into the lineup. Such is the case this week for Coghlan who is replacing Cameron Maybin on the Marlins’ roster and is seeing time in the outfield. Coghlan has gone .486/.591/.857 over the last two weeks and had a 1.522 OPS in AAA. The 23yo has excellent strike-zone judgment and is targeted as the Marlins long-term answer at 2B.

2) Dominic Brown, OF, PHI – Brown remains the bridesmaid of this list, two weeks running, after posting a .426/.500/.833 over his last 54 ABs. He now has a .989 OPS on the season and has clearly established himself as the Phillies’ top prospect.

3) Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX – Every so often there are players that come into professional baseball that very early on leave absolutely no doubt about their future superstardom. Evan Longoria and Matt Wieters are the two most recent examples, and I think we can begin to put Smoak into that category. There isn’t a weakness to his game as he defensively plays his position first rate, hits for power from both sides of the plate, and has amazing strike-zone judgment, as is evidenced by his 26:19 BB:K ratio on the year. Over his last 61 PAs, Smoak is .404/.541/.617 and now has a 1.020 OPS for the season.

4) Derek Norris, C, WSN – Norris was somewhat overlooked entering the season as he made none of the ‘expert’ Top 100 lists. It is somewhat remarkable considering that as one of the New York-Penn (NYP) league’s youngest regulars, he posted a .907 OPS (5th best), while taking more walks than K’s. Add to that the fact that he possesses one of the minor’s best backstop arms (nailed 47% of basestealers in 2008) and you begin to wonder what it takes to get noticed. The barely 20yo Norris has been on a tear over his last 50 PAs (.350/.480/.725), bringing his OPS to .980 on the season. Don’t expect Norris to miss many of those lists next winter.

5) Michael Saunders, OF, SEA – With the Rangers and the Angels red hot in the AL West, the Mariners are fading fast. Their current OF/1B/DH situation consists of Ichiro, some players past their time, some players yet to discover their time and some players that just never had a time. I’m no GM, but it looks like the right time for the fans in Seattle to get their first look at guys like Mike Carp and Michael Saunders. The 22yo Saunders is the most complete OF, outside of Ichiro, in the Mariner system and has gone .333/.436/.879 over the last two weeks and now sports a 1.267 OPS on the year.

6) Jaff Decker, OF, SDP – Decker is still really named ‘Jaff’, still is in possession of John Kruk’s body, and still is beating up Midwest League (MWL) pitchers. A .344/.553/.688 line over the last two weeks leaves the 19yo Decker with a 1.175 OPS for the season.

7) Xavier Avery, OF, BAL – Drafted in the 2nd round last June, primarily for his speed and athleticism, Avery is beginning to turn heads with his production. After getting off to a dreadful start, the 19yo has pounded South Atlantic League (SAL) pitching to the tune of .439/.477/.732 over the last two weeks.

8) Hank Conger, C, LAA – When the Angels selected Conger in the first round in 2006, he was considered an offensive catcher with the possibility of sticking behind the plate because of his cannon-like arm. After a spectacular pro debut in 2006, two injury-plagued seasons left Conger, and the Angels, with more questions than answers. Well I think we are starting to get some answers. Conger is back behind the plate and showing that powerful arm that got him noticed. Add to that a .449/.491/.612 over the last two weeks, and you start to conjure up a picture that has Napoli as a full-time DH and Jeff Mathis as a full-time reserve sometime early next season.

9) Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL – With Luke Scott’s shoulder ailing it may be only a tad longer before Reimold finally gets his chance. Arguably no player in the minors has posted a more impressive offensive season thus far. A .381/.490/.810 over the last two weeks is just icing on the cake.

10) Jesus Guzman, IF, SFG – One of the most puzzling off-season moves to me was that of the A’s releasing Guzman. I don’t understand why an organization that starts Bobby Crosby at third and Adam Kennedy at second didn’t have room for a 24yo 2B/3B that just posted a .948 OPS at three different levels. Guzman, now a Giant prospect, is enjoying sticking it to his cross-bay rivals. His .444/.468/.800 over his last 50 PA’s brings his OPS to .973 on the year.



Hot Pitchers –

1) Tim Alderson, RHP, SFG – Madison Bumgarner gets more attention and undeniably has the bigger upside, but I am still not sure that, when considering the potential vs. certainty equation, Alderson still isn’t the better value. After a promotion to AA this week, the 20yo turned in one of the season’s best games to date, allowing but a walk over 6 2/3IP while fanning 10. Over the last two weeks he has a 1.32 ERA, 0.439 WHIP, with a 16:1 K:BB ratio.

2) Kris Medlen, RHP, ATL – Tommy Hanson gets all the attention, and deservedly so, but the Gwinnett Braves have another starter that looks primed for a big league opportunity. Medlen is 5-0, with a 0.96 ERA on the year. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0.661 WHIP, a 24:6 K:BB ratio and has not allowed an earned run in 19 2/3 IP.

3) Brad Holt, RHP, NYM – After thoroughly dominating NYP hitters in his professional debut last fall, Holt seemed poised to put together a big season this year. So what did he do? He opened up the year by allowing 9ER and 11 baserunners, including 4 walks in 3 2/3 IP. Over his next five starts he has allowed 4 ERs and issued 4 walks. A 1.64 ERA, 0.818 WHIP and a 9:3 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

4) Vance Worley, RHP, PHI – With Anthony Hewitt, Zach Collier, Jason Knapp and Anthony Gose, the Phillies grabbed quite a talent haul in the first two rounds of last June’s draft. Apparently they didn’t do badly with their third round pick either. Worley has posted a 1.29 ERA, 0.667 WHIP with a 20:2 K:BB ratio over his last three starts against Eastern League (ESL) hitters and is now 3-0, with a 2.11 ERA on the season.

5) Bryan Augenstein, RHP, ARZ – By the time you read this, Augenstein will have made his major league debut. He earned that shot by opening the year 5-0 with a 0.78 ERA in 6 Southern League starts. The Diamondbacks drafted Augenstein in the 7th round of the 2007 draft and he has flown under the radar screen, despite posting two solid seasons. The reason for the lack of notoriety has to do with the lack of a true out pitch and a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Nonetheless, he has utilized a ‘heady’ mound approach to post a 1.15 ERA, 0.830 WHIP and a 14:4 K:BB ratio over his last 3 starts.

6) Ross Detwiler, LHP, WSN – The 6th overall selection in the 2007 draft put together a disappointing 2008 season--lackluster enough to begin to stir questions about the pick. Despite starting 2009 at 0-3, he looks like he’s beginning to turn things around. A 0.90 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, and a 16:1 K:BB ratio over his last three starts.

7) Manny Banuelos, LHP, NYY – The Yankees have some really solid, young, Latin American, talent ready to make a big time splash. Outfielders Kelvin DeLeon and Eduardo Sosa and RHP Arodys Vizcaino get more attention, but Manny Banuelos seems poised to grab the first headlines. Just two months past his 18th birthday, Banuelos is one of the youngest pitchers in the SAL. But that hasn’t deterred him from showing a tremendous feel for pitching and limiting opposing hitters to a .238 Average Against in five starts. Over the last two weeks he has posted a 1.00 ERA, a 1.00WHIP and has a 12:3 K:BB ratio.

8) Kyle Allen, RHP, NYM – This week’s ‘Who’s That? Award’ winner, Allen was a potential Top 5 rounds pick in last June’s draft but lasted until the 24th round where the Mets lured him out of a commitment to North Carolina State with a $150,000 signing bonus. He limited Gulf Coast League (GCL) hitters to a .194 Average Against in his debut last season by using a highly polished three pitch repertoire. He is barely 19yo but the Mets thought enough of him to start him in the SAL this season. Thus far it’s looking like a good decision as Allen has posted a 0.68 ERA, 0.825 WHIP with a 17:6 K:BB ratio over his last three starts. His fastball currently tops out at barely 90mph, but this is an incredibly polished 19yo pitcher.


9) Troy Patton, LHP, BAL – Two years ago Patton was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and he became the center piece in the deal that sent Miguel Tejada to the Astros. Unfortunately he had to have labrum surgery last March that ended his season and put his career in doubt. Making his return this season, expectations were low, but Patton is flashing his four-pitch repertoire and dominating ESL hitters. Patton has posted a 1.50 ERA, 0.833 WHIP and an 11:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks and appears ready to join Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, David Hernandez and Nolan Reimold in providing the Orioles with a much needed talent infusion by mid-season.

10) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego St – I could have gone with Jeanmar Gomez in this spot for the third straight week, as he has done nothing to diminish his ‘Hot’ start, but the future Washington National pitcher, Strasburg, nailed down the position with an unbelievable performance against Air Force on Friday night. He tossed a nine inning no-hitter, walking 2 and fanning 17. On the season, Strasburg is 11-0 with a 1.24ERA and a 164:17 K:BB ratio in 87 1/3 IP. He has established himself as the best college pitching prospect since Mark Prior and it isn’t hyperbole to suggest maybe of all-time.


The Nots –

1) Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, MIL – Jeffries looks like another in the long line of hard throwing first round Brewer draft busts in the mold of Mark Rogers, Mike Jones, J.M. Gold, Nick Neugebauer, etc. I understand you can’t teach an upper 90s fastball, but the number of ‘throwers’ who eventually get it and become ‘pitchers’ is a short list and walking more than 5 batters per 9IP, like Jeffress has done throughout his career, is a 100% recipe for disaster. He is walking more than he is striking out, he is walking more than a batter per IP on the season. 18.00 ERA, 3.857 WHIP with a 9:15 K:BB ratio over his last three starts.

2) Sean West, LHP, FLA – The Marlins are in desperate need for a rotation replacement for the injured Anibal Sanchez, but the cupboard appears to be rather bare as top candidates: West, Aaron Thompson and Bret Sinkbeil, all are struggling. West has a 12.96 ERA, 2.520 WHIP and an 8:9 BB:K ratio over the last two weeks and Southern League hitters are batting .281 against him on the season.

3) Wilmer Flores, SS, NYM – Flores opened eyes in a major way last year when he posted an .842 OPS in the Appalachian (APY) League last season—as a 16yo! So we will cut him some slack as he makes his full season debut in the SAL and won’t turn 18yo until August. Nonetheless Flores has a .573 OPS on the season and has posted a .156/.208/.178 over the last two weeks, while looking significantly overmatched.

4) Collin Balester, RHP, WSN – This week’s ‘Put a Fork in Him’ award goes to Balester, the Expos 2004 4th round pick. Balester’s lack of dominating stuff just hasn’t played well the further up the ladder he has climbed. An 8.76 ERA, 2.595 WHIP and a 8:6 K:BB ratio over his last three starts leaves him with a 6.35 ERA on the year. International League (IL) hitters are batting .347 against him on the season. While still just 22yo, and still plenty of time to evolve, there doesn’t seem to be enough projection in him to believe he can be successful at the big league level.

5) Sebastian Valle, C, PHI – The gap between the rookie leagues and the full season leagues are significant, hence the likes of Flores, Valle and Marte on this week’s ‘Not’ list. Players who have demonstrated a mastery of the rookie circuit just don’t have an easy way to make that jump and often end up overmatched in the first half of the full-season leagues. The 18yo Valle is victim of just that situation. A .132/.195/.158 over the last two weeks leaves Valle with a .536 OPS for the year.

6) Jefry Marte, 3B, NYM – As a 17yo in 2008, Marte lit up GCL pitchers to the tune of a .930 OPS. Unfortunately Marte is not finding SAL pitchers nearly as accommodating. I still like Marte and believe he was one of a handful of Rookie league players that served notice of their prospect legitimacy last season, so I expect this to be a short term problem, but a .173/.204/.269 over the last two weeks leaves Marte with .605 OPS for the season.

7) Bret Sinkbeil, RHP, FLA – Sinkbeil is the only ‘Not’ holdover from last week’s list. The Marlins would love to be giving him a shot at the rotation while Sanchez is out, but he is not missing nearly enough bats right now for that to be feasible. He’s posted a 7.82 ERA, 2.605 ERA and a 10:7 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks and PCL hitters are batting .390 against him on the year.

8) Greg Golson, OF, TEX – I’ve never been a big fan of the athletic, ‘toolsy’, production-deficient draft experiments that teams like the Phillies are so fond of. Greg Golson could be the poster child for these types of picks. In four season’s Golson, the Phillies first round pick from 2004, has never bettered his .755 OPS debut season. Finally tired of him, the Phillies unloaded him on the Rangers this off-season. The song remains the same….125/.192/.125 over the last two weeks.

9) Jeff Allison, RHP, FLA – Allison’s off-the-field troubles are well documented. It looked for a time last season like he might become another Josh Hamilton story. However, the feel good story faded as the season wore on and this season is beginning to look like a swan song for the 16th overall pick in 2003. Allision has a 11.00 ERA, 1.889 WHIP and a 2:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks in a Florida State League repeat performance.

10) Jason Knapp, RHP, PHI – Remember the old adage ‘what goes up, must come down?’ Meet Jason Knapp who, on April 21st, pitched arguably the minor’s best game this year and who gave up but 5ERs, 12 Hits and struck out 37 over his first four starts. Over his last two starts he has given up 10ERs, 13 Hits and struck out only 7. Knapp is still a very promising, very projectable, 18yo pitcher…but expect more ups and downs.

The Mailbag - Setting the Ground Rules

The Mailbag is a weekly feature where, usually on Tuesdays, I’d like to give the readers a chance to ask whatever questions that they may have. The way this will work is that if you have a question about a player, a team, or one of the methodologies we use at Diamond Futures…then this is your chance to ask it. Post the question as a comment to the most recent Mailbag, or email us at baseballnumbers@ix.netcom.com, and we will try to answer one or two in the following week’s article.

NCAA Top 30 - May 11, 2009

Sr. 3B, Eric Deragisch has lead the Anteaters with both his bat and glove

As we head into the final week before conference tournaments, we are starting to get some clarity as to the top 8 seeds and who might be hosting first round regionals. Here is how the top teams currently lineup:

1) UC Irvine (37-11) – Went on the road and swept a solid Pacific club last week. Have now won 13 of their last 15.

2) Arizona St (38-11)- The Sun-Devils went 5-0 last week against quality opponents and now are in control in the Pac-10.

3) Cal State-Fullerton (36-13) – How good is the Big West conference? The Titans have won 7 of their last 8.

4) Texas (36-12) – Will head into the Big 12 tourney as the #1 seed.

5) LSU (38-14) – The Tigers are 10-2 in their last 12.

6) Rice (33-13) – The class of Conference USA is 10-12 in their last 12.

7) Georgia Tech (33-12) – The Yellow Jackets have taken five of last six but face a tough final weekend series at Duke.

8) North Carolina (38-13) – The top 8 teams look solid for National seeds, but the Tar Heels need to find some consistency from their rotation.

9) Florida (35-17) – A disappointing 1-3 week after last weekend’s sweep of Georgia.

10) Virginia (37-10) – Two games separate the top four ACC teams heading into the final weekend.

11) Florida St (36-14) – The Seminoles have won 14 in a row prior to dropping a tough series to Georia Tech over the weekend.

12) Mississippi (37-15) – Tough test at Arkansas this week should tell us more about the Rebels.

13) Oklahoma (37-16) – An up and down week ended with the Sooners taking 2 of 3 from rival Oklahoma St.

14) Texas Christian (31-14) – The Horned Frogs may be the best in the Mountain West, but they are 3-8 against this week’s Top 30.

15) Kansas St (38-13) – Despite a tough week, the Wildcats are still 10-2 over their last 12.

16) Clemson (34-17) – Will a weak schedule over the final two weeks hurt the Tigers come tournament time?

17) Texas A&M (33-18) – Their two best pitchers were shelled on Friday and now the Aggies close the season with a tough stretch against Texas State and Oklahoma.

18) Alabama (35-15) – The Tide has now won seven in a row.

19) Arkansas (31-17) – The Razorbacks were 0-3 last week and have a 5 game losing streak.

20) Cal-Poly (33-15) – A disappointing 1-3 week may turn some off of the Mustangs, but they have the look of a tournament sleeper to me.

21) Georgia (34-17) – Sunday’s win snapped an 8-game losing streak. Vanderbilt pitchers held slugger Rich Poythress to 2 singles in 12 ABs over the weekend.

22) East Carolina (37-15) – The Pirates have won 5 of their last 6.

23) Miami, FL (32-18) – The Hurricanes have been under .500 for over the last month.

24) Minnesota (33-14) – Huge sweep against Michigan propels the Gophers to the Big 10 lead.

25) Elon (36-14) – The biggest drawback to the Phoenix is their 1-5 record against this week’s top 30 teams.

26) Oregon St (29-14) – The Ducks are a mere .500 over the last month and are beginning to look like an early out in the tournament.

27) Missouri (30-23) – The Tigers have won 9 of their last eleven and seem to have recovered nicely from their 1-8 start. Have maybe the best college starter not named Strasburg.

28) Texas State (37-12) – The cream of the Southland Conference is 2-5 against this week’s Top 30.

29) Louisville (36-14) – Destroyed Ohio State in two midweek games and now will host South Florida this weekend for the Big East regular season title.

30) Ohio St (32-16) – Rebounded from devastating losses to Louisville to take 2 of 3 from Illinois over the weekend. The Big 10 Tourney looks to be a three team affair and I’ll take the Buckeyes.

2009 Amateur Draft Top 50 – May 07, 2009

Is he the best college pitching prospect ever?

With a little more than five weeks before the annual amateur draft, here is the current breakdown of the top fifty players available, by position.



College Right-Handed Pitchers –


1) Stephen Strasburg, San Diego St – In 11 starts on the year, Strasburg is 10-0 with a 1.38 ERA and has a 147:15 K:BB ratio in 78 IP. He is unquestionably the best college pitcher since Mark Prior.
2) Alex White, North Carolina – In his last five starts he is 3-1, 2.51 ERA and a 0.991 WHIP, including a one-hit, 10k performance against Miami.
3) Tanner Scheppers, Independent – With the Northern League getting going, Scheppers is showing that he is once again healthy.
4) Kyle Gibson, Missouri – The differences between #2 - #5 on this list are very small.
5) Aaron Crowe, Independent – Showing a little rust…It will be interesting to see if he goes higher than #9 this time around.
6) Mike Leake , Arizona St– Not as much upside as the guys in front of him, but has been as steady as anyone not named Strasburg this year.
7) Kyle Heckathorn, Kennesaw St – Not as solid of a season as he had hoped, but still has great raw stuff.
8) Alex Wilson, Texas A&M – While most of the closer candidates this year have been disappointing, Wilson has come on and put himself in position to be a supplemental pick.
9) Kendal Volz, Baylor – Began the season as one of the top 4 RHPs available.
10) Chad Jenkins, Kennesaw St – Still in Heckathorn’s shadow, but could be drafted before him.


High School Right-Handed Pitchers –


1) Shelby Miller, Brownswood H.S. TX – A 97mph heater gets you noticed.
2) Zack Wheeler, East Paulding High School, Dallas – The most polished high school arm available
3) Jacob Turner, Westminster Academy, St. Louis – Hitting 99mph in a recent start has made Turner the fastest rising pitcher in the draft
4) Matt Hobgood, Norco H.S., CA – 6’4, 245 with a low 90’s fastball has scouts drooling.
5) Mychal Givens, Plant H.S., Tampa – The best prep two-way player will likely end up on the mound.



College Left-Handed Pitchers –


Rex Brothers, Lipscomb – Only Strasburg has fanned more batters than Brothers this year.
2) Andrew Oliver, Oklahoma St – Overcame early distractions to pitch well recently. I am higher on him than most.
3) Mike Minor, Vanderbilt – Has faded a bit as of late.
4) James Paxton, Kentucky – Hits 97mph but has been getting torched
5) Brooks Raley, Texas A&M – Sophomore eligible is college’s best two-way player.


High School Left-Handed Pitchers –


1) Tyler Matzek, Capistrano Valley-Mission Viejo H.S. – Has put distance between himself and the other prep lefties.
2) Matt Purke, Klein, TX – Purke and his low 90’s fastball entered the season neck-and-neck with Matzek.
3) Tyler Skaggs, Santa Monica H.S., CA – Non-arm injuries have slowed him down this year.
4) Chad James, Yukon H.S., OK – Rising up draft boards quickly.



College Catchers –


1) Tony Sanchez, Boston College – Complete package…1.145 OPS on the year.
2) Josh Phlegley, Indiana – Defensive question marks will leave him out of the first round.


High School Catchers –


1) Wil Myers, Wesley Academy, NC – Great bat, but may outgrow the position.
2) Max Stassi, Yuba City, CA – Some offensive questions, but has a great make-up and excellent catch and throw skills.
3) Luke Bailey, Troup H.S. LaGrange, GA – Was the top prep receiver and a possible top 10 pick in a very strong class before undergoing Tommy John surgery last week. Now it will be interesting to see who is willing to take a gamble.

College Outfielders –

1) Dustin Ackley, North Carolina – Top college bat could be a premium player if he can stick in CF.
2) Tim Wheeler, Sacramento State – Somewhat unheralded player, he has an excellent power/speed combo. Currently one of my personal favorites.
3) Brett Jackson, California – Excellent Power, but he will need to improve on the one strikeout per every 3 ABs.
4) A.J. Pollock, Notre Dame – Does everything well, but I am not sure his ceiling is more than a 4th OF type.
5) Jared Mitchell, LSU – Speedy, athletic, player who has yet to transfer skills into production.
6) Angelo Songco, Loyola-Marymount – May be the West Coast’s best all-around hitter.
7) Kentrail Davis – Has been a disappointment this season.


High School Outfielders –

1) Donovan Tate, Cartersville H.S., GA – Son of former college FB standout Lars. Phenomenal athlete. Could go top 5 if signability concerns are taken care of.
2) Michael Trout, Millsville H.S., OK – Fastest rising prep player may sneak into top 10. The type of toolsy, athletic player scouts love.
3) Everett Williams, McCallum H.S. Austin, TX – A pure CF who will have to overcome size concerns.
4) Brian Goodwin, High Point H.S., NC – A bit too ‘toolsy’ for my liking, but will be high on a lot of boards.
5) Jake Marisnick, Poly H.S. Riverside, CA – May be the most athletic prepster in the draft.


College Corner Infielders –


1) Rich Poythress, Georgia – Arguably the most productive offensive season in college. Not a lot of options with the glove.
2) Ben Paulsen, Clemson – Has put together a solid (1.100 OPS) season in the ACC.


High School Corner Infielders –


1) Bobby Borchering, Bishop Verot H.S. Ft. Myers, FL – Hitting a HR every 7 ABs this season.
2) Matt Davidson, Yucaipa, H.S. CA – Arguably the best prep Power hitter.

College Middle Infielders –


1) Grant Green, USC – The most difficult player to place on the board. His offensive numbers have improved as the season has gone on, but he may not have the power to be useful if he can’t stay at SS. Color me contrarian on this one as I think if players like JJ Hardy can make it there than there is no reason to not like Green…Offensively I see him being Rickie Weeks like.
2) D.J. Lemaheiu, LSU – Already moved to 2B, Lemaheiu doesn’t provide enough offense to go higher than round two.
3) Ryan Jackson, Miami – A glove that will play at the next level, but will have to answer huge bat questions.

High School Middle Infielders –

1) Jiovanni Mier, Bonita H.S. LaVerne, CA – Best combination of offense/defense among middle infielders.
2) LeVon Washington, Buhholz H.S. Gainsville, FL – Prep speedster who may end up in CF.

Hots and Nots - May 6, 2009

A Virtual unknown at the start of the season, Manny Pina is the Minor’s fastest rising prospect

It’s time for a look around the Minor Leagues to find out who’s performance over the last two weeks has turned heads and who just makes you want to turn away.

Hot Hitters –

1) Manny Pina, C, TEX - No player in baseball has boosted their stock more this season than Pina. He has hit safely in every game and his .469 AVG leads all of baseball. What makes this all the more remarkable is that the 21yo Pina has always been regarded as a ‘defense-first’ catching prospect and has never posted an OPS greater than .677 in four professional season. Over the last two weeks Pina has torched Texas League pitching to the tune of .526/.538/.842.

2) Dominic Brown, OF, PHI – Following up on his breakout 2008 season, the Phillies top hitting prospect has taken his act to the Florida State League (FSL). In his last 50 ABs, Brown has posted a .400/.492/.840 line, bringing his OPS to 1.024 on the season.

3) Brett Lawrie, 2B, MIL – The cold environs of Wisconsin and the Midwest League (MWL) are supposed to keep offensive numbers down—unless, I guess, you hail from Canada. After an eye-popping performance with the Canadian Junior team in the Dominican Republic a few weeks earlier, the 16th overall pick in last June was the fastest riser on the board going into draft day. Now we finally get to see why. The 19yo has opened his debut season by posting a .991 OPS for the season and is .431/.463/.745 over the last two weeks. No one is still quite sure where his glove will play, but there seems to be no questions about his bat.

4) Johermyn Chavez, RF, TOR – Finally filling the Jays expectations they had when they signed him as a 16yo out of Venezuela in 2005, Chavez looks to be on the verge of a breakout season. He has added 20lbs of what appears to be pure muscle on his 6’3” frame and is terrorizing MWL pitching with it. Over his last 40 ABs Chavez has posted a .375/.432/.925 line with 5 HRs and 4 SBs.

5) Gregory Halman, OF, SEA – Halman may be the most fun prospect to watch in all of baseball. 21yo and making his second go round in the Southern League, Halman has become the epitome of the all-or-nothing player. Over his last 50 PAs, Halman has gone .295/.354/.909, with 8 HRs and 20 K’s . One the season he has 10 HRs and only 7 Singles. Don’t get me wrong, I worry tremendously about his ability to perform at the next level while fanning every third AB—but I’d have fun watching it.

6) Chris Coghlan, 2B, FLA – Coghlan is just biding his time right now until the Marlins fall out of contention and deal Uggla. Make no mistake, he is sending notice that he is ready. .415/.520/.659 over the last two weeks. A .906 OPS on the season for the 2006 Supplemental First Round Pick.

7) Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX – Chris Davis may have entered 2009 as the Ranger ‘wunderkind’ after his 2008 performance, but he better not look behind him as the Satchel Paige-esque proverbial ‘someone’ is gaining on him. Smoak has been virtually automatic since the Rangers got him with the 11th pick last June in what was likely the biggest steal of the first round. On the season he is .352/.468/.557. .429/.517/.694 over the last two weeks. Look for him to be manning first base in Arlington for a long-time, starting sometime later this season.

8) Jaff Decker, OF, SDP – The Padres kept Decker back in extended Spring training for a couple of weeks, but that hasn’t slowed him down any as he has picked right up where he left off when he was last seen becoming the Arizona League MVP. Decker is .273/.520/.485 to open the season. Yes, that’s his real first name…Yes, that’s his real body…and Yes, he sure can rake.

9) Chris Pettit, OF, LAA – Pettit was named the Angels’ Minor League POY after posting a .949 OPS in 2007. But Pettit got off to a slow start last season after breaking his foot on Opening Day and never really recovered. Apparently he is serving notice that he is back as Pettit has gone .528/.575/.722 over the last two weeks and now has a 1.133 OPS on the season.

10) Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL – Oriole fans are clamoring for the end of the Felix Pie ‘experiment’ and are expecting Reimold to be called up to fill in the gap. While I think Reimold is proving ready to take the next step, going .364/.451/.773 over his last 44 ABs with a 1.218 OPS on the year, and I certainly think long-term he is a better answer than Luke Scott, Scott has gotten off to a solid start and Nick Markakis is ahead of him in RF. Until someone gets hurt, I don’t see any reason to bring up Reimold to ride the bench.



Hot Pitchers –

1) Daniel Hudson, RHP, CHA - Hudson lasted a little longer than he may have hoped in last June’s draft, going to the White Sox in the 5th round. But after a disappointing Jr. season at Old Dominion, he likely earned it. Hudson regrouped after signing and put up solid numbers in his Pioneer League debut and seems to be carrying that through to this season. A 1.42 ERA, 0.789 WHIP and a 24:1 K:BB ratio over his last two starts. At 22yo, he is a bit old for the South Atlantic League (SAL) and could use a bit more of a challenge.

2) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, NYM – Entering the season the question on Mejia was whether or not he could find enough control with his off-speed pitches to remain a starter or if he was essentially going to be a two-pitch power reliever. After walking nearly 5 batters per 9IP in his first two professional seasons, Mejia is walking only 3 batters per 9IP to start this season and the change is creating a lot of positive results. As one of the youngest pitchers in the FSL, the 19yo hasn’t allowed an Earned Run in his last 13IP and has posted a 0.692 WHIP and a 11:2 K:BB ratio over the same period.

3) Jeffrey Locke, LHP, ATL – After a breakout season in 2007, Locke found the going in 2008 a little tougher as SAL hitters batted .269 against him en route to a 5-12 season. Nonetheless the Braves were satisfied enough to start Locke in the Carolina League this year. The lefthander seems to be rewarding the Braves’ faith, as hitters are only batting .202 against him through 5 starts. 0.66 ERA, 0.585 WHIP and a 13:4 K:BB ratio in his last two starts.

4) Ethan Martin, RHP, LAD – Due to a knee injury in a post-draft minicamp, the best high school arm in the 2008 draft never saw the mound last season. Fortunately, there are no signs of rust. Martin has posted a 1.64 ERA, 0.818 WHIP and a 16:2 K:BB ratio over his last 3 starts. MWL batters are hitting just .173 against him on the season.

5) Aaron Poreda, LHP, CHA – The White Sox are in desperate need of a 5th starter right now, and many of their fans, after watching Poreda start the season with a 1.65 ERA and 28 Ks in 27IP, are calling for Poreda to be given a shot. The problem is those 5 BB per 9IP that Poreda is still issuing. A perfect example is illustrated in this week’s 5 IP no hit performance where he threw 85 pitches, walked 5, hit a batter and through a wild pitch. Nonetheless, Poreda has a 0.98 ERA, 0.927 WHIP with a 22:8 K:BB ratio over his last 3 starts.

6) Ryan Searle, CHN – The ‘Who’s He?’ Award for this week goes to Searle. The Cubs signed the 19yo out of Australia before the 2007 season. He posted solid enough numbers in 34 short season innings in 2008 that the Cubs jumped him a level, making him one of the youngest pitchers in the FSL. Searle has responded in a big way, going his last 16 innings without allowing a run. The knock on Searle is that he lacks a dominant out pitch. He makes up for it by missing bats, as opposing hitters have a career .169 average against him.

7) Thomas Hanson, RHP, ATL – At this moment Hanson has to be wondering what it is going to take to get a crack at a big league rotation spot. After posting a 2.41 ERA, 0.999 WHIP and fanning 163 in 138 IP last year, Hanson looked sharp while fanning 18 in 17IP this Spring. But when the final rotation was assembled Hanson was on the outside looking in. The Braves gave Kawakami a $23 million contract this Winter, so he isn’t going anywhere. That means barring injury, Hanson is biding his time in AAA waiting for the Braves to move aside Jo Jo Reyes. So as he waits, Hanson has put up a 1.00 ERA, 0.889 WHIP with a 25:7 K:BB ratio over his last three starts. Still he waits…and waits…and waits.

8) Hector Rondon, RHP, CLE – Rondon may be baseball’s most underrated prospect. After putting up a 3.60 ERA, while using a mid-90s fastball with late life to fan 145 in 145 IP as a 20yo in the Carolina league last year, Rondon hasn’t missed a beat this season, winning his first four starts. As a 21yo in the Eastern League, Rondon has posted a 0.77 ERA, a 1.029 and a 11:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks. Look for him to see some time in Cleveland before the season is out.

9) Chris Carpenter, RHP, CHN – Had Carpenter played his college ball somewhere other than the Mid-American conference, chances are he wouldn’t have lasted long enough in June’s draft for the Cubs to grab him in the 3rd round. He has a fastball that runs up to 97mph and has possibly three major league caliber pitches—if he can tighten up his control. In his last 17IP he has not allowed an ER and only 4 hits, while fanning 17 batters. Unfortunately the control remains an issue, as he has walked 5 batters per 9IP on the season.

10) Jeanmar Gomez, RHP, CLE - Gomez has always been far too hittable, and not nearly dominant enough since signing as a 17yo out of Venezuela. The Indians decided this year to finally let him catch up to his competition a little by having him repeat Hi-A to start this season. Too much of a good thing, as Gomez is now at Akron. Gomez has posted a 0.75 ERA, a 0.667 WHIP with a 11:2 K:BB ratio over his last two starts. Opposing hitters are batting .190 against him on the year and he is still just barely 21yo.


The Nots –

1) Abraham Almonte, OF, NYY – He’s just 19yo, so there is no need to get overly concerned at this point, but a repeat trip to Charleston this year is producing the same results. .086/.111/.114 over the last two weeks leaves him with a .540 OPS on the season.

2) Jamie Romak, 1B, PIT – If you take a look at Romak’s six year minor league career, Romak has often needed to repeat a level in order to find success. Hoping to see a similar result the Pirates returned Romak to Altoona this season. Unfortunately the results aren’t what everyone hoped for. .106/.125/.213 over the last two weeks and a .431 OPS on the year.

3) Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, FLA – Sometimes you just get it wrong. I’m there with Sinkbeil after being very high on him before the Marlins grabbed him in the first round of the 2006 draft. Entering the year, opposing hitters had tagged Sinkbeil at a .285 Average Against during his professional career. That number is .397 so far this season. In his last 3 starts, Sinkbeil has a 10.029 ERA and a 2.657 WHIP.

4) Cesar Ramos, LHP, SDP – As long as we’re discussing likely first round pitching busts…Ramos was the Padres supplemental first round choice in 2005. In four professional seasons, hitters have touched him at a rate of .283 Average Against. Over the last two weeks, Ramos has posted a 9.00 ERA, a 2.667 WHIP and a 4:9 K:BB ratio. Oh yeah…hitters are batting .305 against him on the year.

5) Eric Cambell, 3B, ATL – After a monster Appalachian League (APY) season in 2005, Cambell has spent the last four years trying to duplicate the magic. After repeating the Carolina League in 2008, the Braves moved him up a level this year. A .139/.184/.167 over the last two weeks leaves him with a .617 OPS on the year.

6) Shooter Hunt, RHP, MIN – It strikes me as odd when I hear that people are surprised that Hunt is having control issues. Afterall, this is a guy that walked nearly 5 batters per 9IP in college and 6 batters per 9IP in his debut last year. Hunt has posted a 12.91 ERA, a 3.000 WHIP and a 8:18 K:BB ratio on the season. He now has issued 29 walks in 14 2/3 IP on the season. All that I can say is ‘yuck!’

7) Nick Evans, 1B, NYM - At least I can say I told you so on this one. After having three similarly talented, similarly defensively limited corner infielders at Binghamton last year, the Mets had to make some choices. They moved Danny Murphy to left and decided to keep Nick Evans over Mike Carp. While Murphy has had his defensive struggles, his bat is playing just fine in New York. Mike Carp appears to be the Mariners future firstbasemen, as he has gotten off to a 1.043 OPS start with Tacoma…and then there is Evans. A .074/.167/.074 over the last two weeks leaves him with a .488 OPS on the year.

8) Jonathan Arencibia, C, TOR – The book on the ‘Jays 2007 first round pick has always been that of a solid defensive receiver with enormous power and he’s never met a first pitch he couldn’t take a swing at. Apparently AAA pitchers have read the book. A .138/.138/.207 over the last two weeks. Arencibia has some really unbelievable stats though—1 HR and 2 Walks in his first 85 ABs.

9) Brad Hand, LHP, FLA – Hand’s prospect status was on the rise after being the Marlin’s second round pick last June. He had a solid debut season in 2008, worked on some mechanical problems and really seemed positioned for a breakout 2009. Unfortunately, so far the 19yo isn’t finding Lo-A hitters very accommodating. A 12.91 ERA, a 2.609 WHIP and a 5:7 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

10) Kyle Skipworth, C, FLA - When is it too early to get worried about a top six draft pick? Is 267 ABs too soon? A .584 OPS start to his professional career sure would make me nervous. If that doesn’t do it, how about a .154/.214/.154 over the last two weeks?