What to Expect in Omaha

Mike Leake may get the attention, but the Sun Devils' fortunes might just rest with Josh Spence

If you’re not a fan of College Baseball, or if you have never really given College Baseball a chance, do yourself a favor and tune in this weekend. I’ll be the first to admit, that with 300 Division I teams, each playing roughly 60+ games, a lot of ‘bad’ baseball get’s played during the college season. If you want to see two teams sending their best out to face the other teams’ best, you’re relegated to making the season one of only Friday Nights. During the course of the regular season, almost 1/3 of the games are started by non-top 3 starters, and quite frankly the college game just isn’t afforded that much pitching depth. But when the College World Series kicks off on Saturday, #4 starters will be a thing of the past. More importantly, this year’s field contains the Top Three teams in the nation as well as six of the Top Eight. My point is that we have some really good teams hooking up in a double elimination format that should showcase the best the game has to offer. When all the dust settles, here’s how we see things falling out.

Bracket #1 –

The Tournament’s #2 seed, Cal State-Fullerton takes on the Arkansas Razorbacks in the opening game and not only is Fullerton the superior offensive club, but this is a pitching match-up that tilts in the Titan’s favor as well. The Titans play a college version of ‘small ball’ that relies on a lot of baserunners, scoring a lot of runs, and solid pitching, combined with excellent defense. There isn’t a single facet that the Razorbacks hold an advantage in.

In the second game, we have one of the best matchups of the weekend when the Anthony Ranaudo led LSU Tigers take on the Tournament’s team with the biggest chip on their shoulder, the Virginia Cavaliers. Ranaudo is one of the best Starters still in the tournmanet, and I’ll go with the Tigers to prevail in a close one.

The elimination game should be another dandy, but I see the Razorbacks pulling off a slight upset there to stay alive.

In the Winner’s bracket, I think the Tiger-Titan matchup will be another dandy. The pitching matchup should be about dead even on talent, but it will be a battle of The Senior Lou Coleman against the Freshman Noe Ramirez. In this kind of environment, I expect that the experience factor swings the advantage to the Tigers.

Fullerton should easily dispatch the Razorbacks again in the rematch, setting up the rematch between the Tigers and the Titans. Look for the Titans experience to prevail in back-to-back games, squeaking this out and moving on to the Championship.

Bracket #2 –

Texas gets what I see as, essentially, a bye in the opener against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles have made me look stupid all tournament, but their run is seriously over now.

In the second game, we could have a match-up that pits the #8 pick from Tuesday’s draft, Mike Leake, against the #15 pick, Alex White…or will it. Some of us think that the Tar Heels are stronger against righties than they are against left-handers and the smart play by Sun Devil coach Pat Murphy just might be to go with Josh Spence, saving Leake for a second round match-up with Texas. From my perspective, White has been too inconsistent this season to count on against either starter and I expect the Sun Devils to win.

In the elimination game, look for Carolina to walk all over Southern Miss. On the winner’s side, I think whoever the Sun Devils throw, and my guess is it will be Leake, will prevail. Leake has been the closest thing to automatic in College Baseball all season.

In the North Carolina – Texas elimination match, if Augie Garrido has the courage to throw Freshman, Taylor Jungmann, I’ll take the Longhorns. Jungmann has pitched like an Ace this year.

In the Texas-Arizona State finals, I can see the Longhorns possibly getting one game, but don’t see how they will get them both.

Finals –

The Sun Devils have been my favorite to win the whole thing for about six weeks now. I think they have more pitching depth than anyone else in the tournament, to go along with a balanced offense. When it’s all over, expect the Arizona State Sun Devils to be the 2009 College World Series Champs.

Around the Bases - June 12, 2009

Largely thanks to a red-hot Ian Stewart, the Rockies are riding an 8-game Win streak

Maybe I was worth that $3.6MM Bonus…
24yo Andrew Miller tossed 6 1/3 Innings, allowing 7 Hits and 3 ERs, while fanning 8. He has a 13:1 K:BB ratio over his last 12 IPs, after starting the season with a 24:22 ratio over 28IP. Miller appears to be on the verge of a serious breakout.

Coming home to Charlotte…
After another 0 for 4 performance, 22yo Gordon Beckham now has but 2 singles in 24 ABs. The concern on Beckham has always been that little loop in his swing and the fear that Major League pitchers will exploit it. It is way too early to be down on a 22yo with only 66 professional games under his belt, but it is beginning to look like some further refinement in AAA will be required.

Tale of two seasons…
After an 8IP, 5H, 1ER, 0BB, 5K performance last night, 25yo White Sox pitcher Gavin Floyd has a 1.67 ERA, a 0.823 WHIP and a 36:8 K:BB ratio over his last 5 starts. On May 17, Floyd’s ERA was 7.71 and his WHIP was 1.872.

A streaking Stewart is nothing new…
24yo Ian Stewart was notorious for having pro-longed slumps and scorching hot streaks as he was coming up through the Minors. Apparently that has continued into the Big Leagues. The Rockies got off to a dreadful start, but are now riding an 8 game winning streak—led by Stewart. Over his last 9 games, Stewart has posted a .375/.405/.825 with 5 HRs. This includes last night’s 2 for 4, with a Home Run and a Walk performance.

I ain’t no stinkin’ Reliever…
After the Diamondbacks drafted Max Scherzer, the conventional wisdom was that he was a future closer. Arizona said not so fast. Last night’s 7 2/3 IP, 3H, 1BB, 0ER, 6K performance was not only the 24yo’s longest outing of his career, but it now gives him 13 straight scoreless innings.

Who cares if I walk a few…
It’s not often that you see a major league pitcher that walks 8.5 batters per 9IP, have success, but 23yo David Price is carrying around a 1.88 ERA while doing precisely that. Of course he also has 26 Ks in his first 19 IP.

I think those are Justin Smoak’s footsteps that I hear…
23yo Chris Davis turned heads with his 17 HR in 295 AB debut last season. And while he’s always been a free-swinger, nobody worried about those 88 strike outs. Well Davis has a .205/.262/.431 line this year, and it only took him 195 ABs to reach 88 strike outs. I have never been a huge Chris Davis fan…and this is precisely why.

I hope nobody was looking…
Jordan Danks and John Whittleman posted perfect nights last night…each going o for 4 with 4 strikeouts.

Two worth repeating…
20yo Blue Jay OF Prospect, Moises Sierra, went 2 for 3 with a double, a triple and a walk and is now hitting .444/.524/.778 in June.
20yo National C Prospect, Derek Norris, went 2 for 4, while hitting his 13th HR, and is now hitting .385/.455/.697 since the beginning of May.

Minor League Performance of the Day…
Goes to 24yo Kevin Mulvey of the Twins. Mulvey threw a 9 inning shutout, allowing 7 Hits and 1 Walk while fanning 7.

Thank Goodness for June…
Jordan Walden entered the season as arguably the Angels best prospect, but through the end of May he had a 6.14 ERA, a 1.955 WHIP and a 13:16 K:BB ratio. After last night’s 6 inning shutout performance, he has a 0.82 ERA, a 1.000 WHIP and a 16:1 K:BB ratio in the month of June.

2009 Draft Hits and Misses

It was the fall of Tanner Scheppers that was Tuesday's biggest story

For a variety of reasons; signability issues, time to reach the major leagues, the overall draft length, etc. you can’t really give accurate grades to a baseball draft for many years—if at all. But that doesn’t mean there weren’t some things that took place that weren’t worth mentioning. With that in mind, here’s our quick take on who is likely to benefit and who made us scratch our heads after the first two days of the 2009 draft.

Hits –

Colorado Rockies – If they can convince Matzek to sign, this was by far the most impressive first night performance. First they took a Top Five player in Matzek with the 11th pick, then they got a Top Fifteen Player in Tim Wheeler at #32. Wait, the Rockies didn’t stop there, as they were able to steal Rex Brothers, a Top Twenty talent in the Supplemental round. If you want to add icing on the cake, in the 4th Round, with the 121st overall selection, they tabbed the Diamond Futures’ Top 50 Special—Kent Matthes from Alabama. Each of their first three picks were the best player left on our list at the time of selection. If I didn’t know better, they had stolen our list.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Getting Borchering at #16 rivals the Matzek pick for us as the best of round#1. While he landed exactly where we predicted him to, this was the best prep hitter in the draft. As we said on Monday, if the Pirates were going to ‘reach’ then the pick ought to have been Borchering at #4. Pollock was a solid pick at #17, but then they came back in the supplemental round and were able to nab Matt Davidson, a Top Twenty player, with the 35th pick. Finally, to cap their good run on Tuseday, they were able to snare Marc Krauss from Ohio University in the second round.
Texas Rangers – We would have taken Matzek over Purke, but it was still an excellent pick at #14. But where the Rangers made their draft was grabbing Scheppers in the Supplemental round. Yes we understand the medical concerns, and no we don’t claim to be orthopedic surgeons, or to have seen his medical records, but what we do know is that his velocity is back in the upper 90’s and, pre-injury, he was our #1 pitcher in the 2008 draft. We would have called the Ranger’s pick excellent if they had taken Scheppers at #14. Admittedly there wasn’t a lot of the rest of their draft that we were real fond of, but from our perspective that got two of the top ten talents available.

Best Picks of the Second Round –
Jason Kipnis to Cleveland at #63
Garret Gould to the Dodgers at #65

Best Pick of the Third Round –
Will Myers to the Royals at #91

Jake Marisnick to the Blue Jays at #104

Best Picks of the Fourth Round –
Max Stassi to the A’s at #123
Luke Bailey to Tampa Bay at #139
Kent Matthes to the Rockies at #121

Best Pick of the Fifth Round –
Jeff Malm to Tampa Bay at #169


The Misses –

Pittsburgh Pirates – Same old Pirates. Coming on the heels of the McLouth deal, Sanchez at #4 doesn’t just look bad…it looks awful. Yes, unlike the Moskos pick a couple of years ago at least Sanchez was a first round talent, but with the 4th pick overall, there were at least 15-20 better options. But it wasn’t just the Sanchez pick. It would be great if you said the logic was that they were going to save $ on Sanchez to draft over slot later on, but there were only two of their picks in the first ten rounds that could even possibly qualify for that (Brooks Pounders in round two was well placed and Zach Von Rosenberg in round six was solid talent). I have three words for this draft…awful, awful, awful!
Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles have drafted well in recent years so I can’t be too hard on them, and I will have to take them at their word that Hobgood was their guy—not a signability pick. Don’t get me wrong, I like Hobgood, but I am willing to wager that at least half of the group of Jacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, Matt Purke, Shelby Miller, Zack Wheeler and just to even the odds more in their favor throw in Garret Gould—so at least three of them, likely more, will outperform Hobgood long-term. If Hobgood was their guy, then they just plain got it wrong. While the rest of their draft wasn’t awful, the only other pick they made where I thought they under drafted a guy was Ryan Berry in Round Nine.
Major League Baseball – It’s time that something changes with the Draft! The purpose of it should be so that the worst teams in the league end up with the best available players. Clearly on Tuesday night, that was not the case. If a slotted system or a hard draft cap isn’t going to make it through the collective bargaining agreement, then it is time Major League Baseball allowed the trading of draft picks. At least at that point the teams that can’t afford to meet the higher priced demands can at least get value for the pick. I seriously thought that after 2007, the 2008 draft was relatively free of the signability problem. Unfortunately, after the first three picks last night (Strasburg, Ackley and Tate), signability was a bigger story than the players being taken. That’s bad Public Relations and it is detrimental to the long-term future of the game.

Around the Bases – June 11, 2009

The Orioles Xavier Avery went 5 for 5 last night

Around the Bases is Diamond Future’s newest feature. Every morning we’ll take a look around both the Major and Minor Leagues and highlight a couple of key performances, by young players, that really stood out from the previous day's games.

They Said He Was Too Short…
26yo, Alberto Callaspo went 4 for 4 for the Royals, with a Grand Slam. Callaspo is now batting .311/.362/.459 on the season.

Starting to get the hang of this Closer thing…
25yo, Huston Street struck out the side to pick up his 11th Save. Pitching in Coors, Street now has a 2.84 ERA, 1.026WHIP with a 28:7 K:BB ratio.

Is two games a hitting streak…
After going hitless in his first 4 Major League games, 22yo Gordon Beckham has singled in each of the last two games, bringing his MLB totals to 2 for 20.

Mom told me there’d be days like this…
22yo, Clayton Kershaw is going to be a great pitcher. His 60Ks in 61 IP is evidence of his potential domination. But last night it took Kershaw 83 pitches just to record 2 2/3IP. He left after giving up 3ERs, 4 Hits and 3 BBs.

In case you hadn’t noticed…
22yo, Colby Rasmus now has a 10-game hitting streak in which he has gone .452/.452/.839.

Church is back…time to return to AAA…
With Ryan Church back and apparently healthy, 20yo Fernando Martinez needs to get more than 6 ABs in 4 Games. His .222/.317/.333 Big League debut, shows there is still work to be done.

Ouch!!!!...
23yo Dexter Fowler had a night he’d like to forget…0 for 5 with 4Ks.

This games is easy…
After a solid start in the FSL, the Cardinals Peter Kozma was promoted to AA. In 118 AA ABs, Kozma had 1 2B, 1 3B and 1HR. In 4 ABs last night Kozma had 1 2B, 13B and 1 HR.

Minor League Hitter of the Day…
Baltimore’s, 19yo, Xavier Avery went 5 for 5 with a HR(2) and 10 TBs.

Connecticut is calling…
The Giants Buster Posey sits at .311/.405/.528 after going 1 for 2 and hitting his 10th HR.

Under the radar…
The Blue Jays, 20yo, Moises Sierra is putting together a nice little season. Last night he was 4 for 4 with a Walk and 2 2Bs.

What does a guy have to do…
Although the Nationals, 20yo, Catcher prospect Derek Norris has made our Hot List a couple of times already this season, he has been the final cut each of the last two weeks. Norris just keeps raking though, going 3 for 5 with 2 Doubles last night and is at .321/.411/.595 on the year.

It’s a good thing they count my pitches…
The Rangers have been very strict and very cautious with, 19yo, Wilmer Fonts’ pitch counts this year, despite his often times dominating performance in the SAL. And it’s a good thing, as Font went 1 2/3 IP yesterday allowing 4 Hits, 2 Walks and fanning 4. On the year he has 40 Ks in 35IP...and has issued 28 Walks.

I’m Baaack…
Jason Knapp started the year positively on fire, before running into a 5 game stretch in May where he was just plain awful. The calendar has turned and so has Knapp’s fortunes. After a 7IP, 0ER, 4 Hit, 0 BB, 6 K performance yesterday, the 19yo Knapp now has a 1.50 ERA, 0.833 WHIP and a 16:3 K:BB ratio since 5/29.

Not Quite Perfect…
After, 21yo, Jeanmar Gomez threw his 'perfect' game, he went through a three game stretch where he posted a 8.44 ERA and a 2.000 WHIP before turning in a 6 Inning, 1 Hit, 1 BB, 5 K performance last night.

I think I’m healthy now…
23yo, Padre, Left-hander, Nick Schmidt missed all of the 2008 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He started the season off with a rather rough beginning, but Schmidt has now thrown 21 straight shutout innings with 25Ks and only 3 BB after his 6 inning, 3 Hit, 1 BB, 9K performance last night.

Something to Ponder…
Although David Aardsma was drafted as a college closer, and has a 1.84 ERA with 11 Saves on the year, his underlying peripherals, especially the 20 Walks in 29IP don’t really predict long-term success in that role. With 'yes I can'…'no I can’t'…'yes I can'…Brandon Morrow being once again converted to a Starter, How much longer will it be before the Mariners turn over closing duties to 2008 First Round Pick, Joshua Fields? Since returning from a DL stint in late May, Fields has retired 14 of the last 15 batters he has faced.

Hots and Nots - June 10, 2009

Travis Wood's new found control over his five pitch repertoire is making the difference

While all eyes of the baseball world focused on the MLB draft this week, they were still playing baseball around the Minor Leagues. This week’s list has a lot of new names, but is topped by an old one…a true baseball comeback story starring Cincinnati Reds’ pitching prospect Travis Wood.

Hot Pitchers –

1) Travis Wood, LHP, CIN – The Reds drafted Wood with their second round pick in 2005, primarily based on his low- to mid-90’s Fastball and an outstanding Change. Shoulder problems forced mechanical adjustments to his delivery and his Fastball became a fringy high-80’s—reducing the disparity between it and his Change, and making the Change less effective. After struggling in 2007, Wood had regained some success at the beginning of last season, posting a 2.70 ERA in 9 Florida State (FSL) League starts. This earned him a promotion to the Southern (SOL)League—where the wheels promptly fell off, as he posted a 7.09 ERA in 70 IP. Over the winter, Wood worked hard on a cut fastball and also added a two-seamer, giving him three pitches to highlight against his outstanding change (he also has an average curveball, giving him a true 5-pitch repertoire). A return trip to the SOL this season has had dramatically different results. Over his last 3 starts, he has posted a 0.82 ERA, a 0.636 WHIP and a 19:1 K:BB ratio. Compare that to a SOL ratio of 58:48 in 2008. He now has allowed only 2 ERs in his last 29 IP and looks poised to move to Louisville very soon and could see Cincinnati by year-end. More importantly, at 22yo, he is younger than both Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers, who were drafted yesterday.

2) Mat Latos, RHP, SDP – Two words I never expected to use in the same sentence ‘Latos’ and ‘Brilliant’, but the pitching of Mat Latos this season has been nothing short of brilliant. A move up to AA hasn’t slowed him one bit, as in his last 14IP he has not allowed an ER, has a 0.659 WHIP, and a 15:3 K:BB ratio. On the year he has a 0.42 ERA.

3) Alexander Perez, RHP, CLE – This week’s ‘Who’s He Award’ winner, Perez was signed as a 17yo out of the Dominican Republic in 2007. He really isn’t that unkown, as we had him with a Top 10, age-adjusted season in the Dominican Summer (DSL) League in 2007 and a Top 15 age-adjusted season in the Gulf Coast (GCL) League last year. He has the standard mix of pitches, highlighted by a low 90’s fastball, but is an extremely lanky 6’2” 19yo that should add a couple of MPH to the fastball as he fills out. Consider him in the same mold as recent Tribe successes Hector Rondon and Jeanmar Gomez. We like him better than Gomez and, at least for now, slightly less than Rondon. Perez has posted a 1.50 ERA, a 0.667 WHIP and a 13:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

4) Daniel Duffy, LHP, KCR – Duffy is one of those young pitchers that doesn’t attract a lot of press, but just gets the job done. In his first two seasons he posted a 1.97 ERA and opposing hitters batted a paltry .188 against him. Not much has changed for the 20yo this season as Carolina (CAR) League hitters are hitting .214. Over his last three starts, Duffy has posted a 0.95 ERA, a 0.895 WHIP and a 17:6 K:BB ratio.

5) Ross Seaton, RHP, HOU – I think I mentioned this last week…I really like Ross Seaton. Seaton now has posted a 1.35 ERA, a 0.850 WHIP and a 14:2 K:BB ratio over his last three starts…All of this as a 19yo in the South Atlantic (SAL) League.

6) Matt Moore, LHP, TBD – It’s been quiet on the Matt Moore scene since he led all minor league pitchers with a 12.75 K/9IP and a .154 Avg Against in his debut season…not that he’s pitched badly, posting a 3.30 ERA with 69 Ks in 49 SAL IP. But it looks like things are taking a step up, as Moore has now posted a 1.93 ERA, with a 1.000 WHIP and a 23:7 K:BB ratio over his last three starts. Not bad for a guy that won’t turn 20yo for another week.

7) Kris Medlen, RHP, ATL – Medlen got knocked around a bit by Colorado in his Major League debut, but since then has settled down nicely, posting a 3.14 ERA, a 0.907 WHIP and a 15:4 K:BB ratio over his last 3 appearances.

8) Hunter Strickland, RHP, BOS – The 20yo Strickland was an 18th round pick by the Red Sox in 2007. Prior to this year he had posted two non-descript seasons, but his SAL, full-season, debut has been a different story as Strickland has a 2.89 ERA through 12 games. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0.55 ERA, a 0.673 WHIP and a 12:0 K:BB ratio. At 6’5” and still filling out, Strickland could be one to watch.

9) Evan Anundsen, RHP, MIL – The Brewers 4th round pick from the 2006 draft makes his third straight appearance on this list, an indication of the breakout season he is putting together in the FSL. The 21yo has posted a 1.29 ERA, a 0.786 WHIP and a 17:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

10) Stephen Strasburg’s Accountant – Strasburg may have been drafted number #1 last night, but it’s today when the fun really begins. Mark Prior’s $10,500,000 contract in 2001 and Buster Posey’s $6,200,000 Bonus from last year are clearly numbers that are in his sights. Just ‘Baseball Bonus‘ inflation alone would make Prior’s contract nearly $14,000,000 in today’s dollars, and I think most knowledgeable baseball people feel Strasburg is a better draft prospect than Prior. If I were starting a ‘guess the contract’ pool, I’d peg the final deal at around $24,000,000 with about $9,000,000 in bonuses. The beauty as a fan, is that this will be a Major League contract with no motivation for the Nationals to hold him down in AAA to start the 2010 season.

Hot Hitters –

1) James Darnell, 3B, SDP – I’ve lost track as to how many times Darnell has appeared on this list so far this season, but I can tell you that it is enough for the Padres to promote him so that he can be challenged, because right now he is destroying Midwest (MWL) League pitching. Over his last 55 PA’s, Darnell has posted a .429/.556/.762 and now sports a .964 OPS for the season.

2) Zach Cozart, SS, CIN – Cozart was drafted by the Reds in the second round for his glove, and had serious questions surrounding his ability to hit. He’s beginning to put those concerns to rest as he has posted a .382/.469/.691 line over the last two weeks and now has a .828 OPS on the year. This is in the Southern (SOL) League, after the Reds chose to skip the 23yo over Hi-A.

3) Chris Heisey, OF, CIN – There are a lot of Reds on the list this week, and Heisey is the latest. With a 1.067 OPS on the year, Hesisey keeps making a case for himself to lose that ‘4th OF type’ label. .407/.439/.778 over the last two weeks.

4) Colby Rasmus, OF, STL – With 170 MLB ABs, Rasmus is no longer, technically, a prospect. But I just felt his play in the month of June was worth noting. Rasmus currently sports a 9-game hitting streak, and he has posted a .405/.405/.757 line over the last two weeks.

5) Chris Carter, 1B, OAK – You wouldn’t expect that a 22yo player in AA, with four .900+ OPS seasons under his belt, would be on his third Major League organization, but that is the case with Carter. Apparently he adjusts rather easily, as his .370/.491/.674 over the last two weeks, leaves his OPS at .916 in his 5th season.

6) Michael Baxter, OF, SDP – Whenever you have an OPS above 1.500 after 200ABs, you deserve to make the Hot list two weeks in a row. The Padres promoted him to AAA this past week and now we’ll see if he can keep it up. .442/.538/.767 over the last two weeks. I still don’t believe Baxter is much of a prospect, but it has been an unbelievable couple of months for him.

7) Todd Frazier, OF, CIN – I wasn’t high on Frazier when the Reds made him a supplemental 1st round pick in 2007. I didn’t believe his glove/mobility was adequate enough for a middle infield position and I didn’t think his arm was strong enough for third or his bat powerful enough for first. The Reds solved those problems by putting him in LF this year. I still don’t necessarily believe he was worthy of that draft position, but he’s doing a lot right at the moment. Over the last two weeks, Frazier has posted a .396/.458/.660.

8) Jesus Montero, C, NYY – Only when you frame his season by the fact that he is 5 months past his 19th birthday, can you truly appreciate how special of a bat we have here. A repeat performance this week by Montero, after going .405/.444/.667 over his last 45 PA’s. The Yankees have promoted him to AA after posting a .959 OPS in the FSL. He may struggle against the more advanced Eastern (ESL) pitchers, but be patient.

9) Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL – With Weeks out for the season, I am not sure what the Brewers are waiting for. Escobar has been the organization’s best defensive SS since the day he signed a contract with them in 2003 and he showed last year that his bat will at least play at the next level. Over the last two weeks, Escobar has posted a .413/.413/.652 and I continue to be pained by the thought of Craig Counsell blocking anyone’s way. Someone needs to introduce J.J. Hardy to a secondbaseman’s glove...pronto.

10) Julio Borbon, OF, TEX – I’m not the hugest Borbon fan, as I still see him as an OF that carries a Shortstop’s bat. Nonetheless that hasn’t prevented Borbon from putting himself in a position to make the Big League club no later than 2010. Truth be told, maybe I have been too hard on him, as Dave Roberts put together a 10-year major league career with less. .370/.443/.519 over the last two weeks.



The Nots –

1) Greg Halman, OF, SEA – When you have a swing like Halman does, you are going to go through periods like this. Halman has 13 HRs on the season, but he has struckout basically every second trip to the plate on the year. A .075/.140/.100 line over the last two weeks, has led to .681 OPS in a SOL repeat performance.

2) Brett Hunter, RHP, OAK – After getting lit up on May 29th (5ERs and 6BBs in 2 2/3IP), the A’s have tried to right Hunter with a couple of outings out of the pen. So far no luck, as Hunter has posted a 18.00 ERA, 3.500 WHIP and a 4:10 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks and now has a 7.91 ERA on the year.

3) Alan Horne, RHP, NYY – Speaking of pitchers in need of ‘righting’, Horne has been putrid this season. Another DL stint at the end of May apparently wasn’t the answer, as Horne has posted a 22.09 ERA, a 3.818 WHIP and a 3:5 K:BB ratio since his return, leaving his ERA at 11.15 for the season. His breakout 2007 campaign is merely a distant memory at this point.

4) Shelby Ford, 2B, PIT – The Pirates had high hopes for Ford entering the season…Time to make a new plan. A .087/.106/.087 line over the last two weeks has his OPS falling to .418 on the year. That’s worth repeating…FALLING TO .418 on the year. 3 Walks in 159 ABs aren’t helping his cause.

5) Aneury Rodriguez, RHP, TBR – Rodriguez has been pressing ever since being dealt to the Rays in the Jason Hammel deal. A 13.94 ERA, 2.419 WHIP, and a 10:9 K:BB ratio over his last three starts leaves his ERA at 7.05 through 12 starts.

6) Devaris Gordon, SS, LAD – I made it fairly clear earlier this year that I haven’t bought into the Dee Gordon-hype. A 21yo that has speed as his main attribute, a lot of very raw skills, and a build that was smaller than mine as a Sophmore in High School, dosen’t get me excited. A .159/.196/.159 in the MWL over the last two weeks excites me even less. His .705 OPS through 230 ABs on the season really kills it for me.

7) Zach Collier, OF, PHI – Let me preface this by saying that, at 18yo, in a full-season league, we can draw little, in the way of conclusion, about the long-term prospects of Collier by his .589 OPS on the year. That being said, a .116/.136/.140 line for the last two weeks is unquestionably awful.

8) Jeffrey Locke, LHP, PIT – As I mentioned when Locke was included in the McLouth deal, I have significant concerns about his control issues and his long-term prospect outlook that will be impacted by them. Thus far in his career, his control issues have worsened at every step of the ladder. On the season he is walking 5 batters per 9IP. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a 17.36 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, with a 5:5 K:BB ratio. The Pirates better find a different way to justify that deal.

9) Steven Johnson, RHP, LAD – Last week I cautioned you to not worry too much about Johnson’s inclusion on the list, one that was mainly reflective of a single bad start. Well now it’s two bad starts. Over the last two weeks his numbers are really ugly—10.80 ERA, 2.400 WHIP and a 5:6 K:BB ratio. I still think this is a pitcher with a lot of upside, but something isn’t right with him at the moment.

10) Engle Beltre, OF, TEX - There is a strong case to be made for pushing young players into full-season A-ball and/or keeping them there even when they struggle mightily (i.e. Jefry Marte this season). Extended Spring training just doesn’t provide a comparable game environment so as not to impede player development. If a player has the make up to handle the struggles, they are far better off struggling in Lo-A. The same argument cannot be made about Hi-A ball, and the Rangers are doing Beltre a disservice by keeping him at Bakersfield despite a .591 OPS through 229 ABs. He only posted a .711 OPS in Clinton last season, so it is not like he had mastered it. A .100/.122/.150 line over the last two weeks is a clear call for a change.

The Mailbag - June 10, 2009

Just one quick response for the mailbag this week, as we are busy putting together tonight’s Hots and Nots list. This week’s question comes from LowellSoxFan, who asks:

I noticed that you guys were the only one of the Mock Drafts to have Reymond Fuentes, the OF the Red Sox drafted, as a first round pick. You had him as the 19th best player overall and had him going to the Angels with the 24th pick. Was this pick a signability pick or just a reach by the Red Sox and why didn’t we hear a lot about him?

I don’t really believe the Red Sox reached with this pick, and instead believe it was an excellent value pick that fits the Red Sox historical draft philosophy. The Red Sox tend to favor players that other teams pass on because they have to go over slot or they lean toward high risk/high reward ‘toolsy’ players like their Casey Kelly pick last year. Fuentes is just that type of player.

I’m not sure why you hadn’t heard a lot about him, as most people have been aware of him, figuring him to be a 2nd/3rd round type of guy entering this Spring. We have had him in the 50-60 range since late April. Playing in Puerto Rico, cross-checking was more difficult, and few teams had visited him before the last couple of months, but my understanding is that there had been a relatively strong scout presence at his more recent outings. We moved him up the board consistently over the last two weeks as he had workouts for three Major League clubs and each time the buzz he created grew louder.

We really expected him to go as early as #17 to the Diamondbacks or #18 to the Marlins, but thought the Angels with back-to-back picks at #24/#25 seemed like a logical landing place. We always expected though that teams that were on Fuentes would also be on Trout, and Trout would go first. When it came to the Red Sox, we really expected that they would have their choice of an over slot steal, or one of the two Catchers, and in all honesty didn’t figure him for Boston.

We really like Fuentes’ upside though. He is extremely slight, but generates significant power…almost ‘Alfonso Sorianoish’. His number one tool though is his speed, which allows him to cover a tremendous amount of ground. But the thing that we liked best is that he has the Baseball awareness to intrinsically understand offensively, when to go the other way, when to use that line drive swing he has, and when to put the ball on the ground and just flat out run. We have a penchant for players that seem to inherently understand how to play the game and we put Fuentes in that category.

Tomorrow, we will recap the best and the worsts of this year’s draft and post our picks for this weekend’s College World Series.

Remember, if you have a question you can post it as a comment to our weekly Mailbag or email us at baseballnumbers@ix.netcom.com.

Diamond Futures Mock Draft - June 8, 2009

The slide of Matt Purke may be one of Tuesday's biggest stories

Fasten your seat belts as this year’s draft should be one wild ride. I expect that the surprises will come both early and often. Expect ‘signability’ to be a major factor in Tuesday evening’s decision making, actually driving some players like prep Texas, LHP, Matt Purke nearly out of the first round. Health issues for Tanner Scheppers and Kyle Gibson will also impact where they eventually are selected. I don’t expect that our Mock Draft will be more or less accurate than anyone else’s, as we have tried to inject too much logic into our selections. Nonetheless, after eating drinking and breathing NCAA baseball and the amateur draft for the last two weeks, we present our take on tomorrow’s first round.

1. WASHINGTON – Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego St…There is nothing more that needs to be said.
2. SEATTLE – Dustin Ackley, CF, North Carolina…I am about 90% certain that the Mariners won’t screw this one up.
3. SAN DIEGO – Tyler Matzek, LHP, Mission Viejo, CA…This is where things will begin to get interesting. Donovan Tate and Grant Green are other possibilities for this slot, but in the end it will be the prep lefty from just down the road that will provide the least risk.
4. PITTSBURGH – Grant Green, SS, USC. The key to how a number of other picks will fall hinge on this selection. I have settled on Green based on who they are likely to not pick. Tony Sanchez’s name has been linked here, but I don’t think Neal Hunington wants to come away with an overdraft like that on the heels of the McLouth trade. The Pirates have showed a willingness to spend money on the Alvarez pick last year, so I don’t expect the big price tags to limit this pick too much. Other rumors have them taking Aaron Crow, but I can’t help wonder why Crow is better after essentially a year off after he went #9 last year and this draft has far better pitching options. Interesting to note here, if Green doesn’t go here he likely falls all the way to KC at #12. If there is a huge surprise here, I think it is more likely to be Borchering than Sanchez…but it is after all the Pirates.
5. BALTIMORE – Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul/Amer. Assoc…This is the pick I have the hardest time getting my arms around in the Top 10. Scheppers will go to the first team from #5 on that has received a positive medical report. I just don’t know who that is. Perhaps Monday night's outing did enough to alleviate any concerns. If it isn’t Scheppers, look toward Alex White.
6. SAN FRANCISCO – Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville, GA…A couple of things about the Giants: 1) they have had tremendous success drafting high school players and 2) they aren’t scared off by high $ demands. With all of the prep pitchers available, it could be easy to see them taking any of the prep righties (Turner, Miller, Wheeler) who all profile higher than either Alderson or Bumgarner did in 2007. But I think that if someone has the stomach for dealing with Tate, it will be the organization that endured Barry Bonds for so long.
7. ATLANTA – Zack Wheeler, RHP, Dallas, GA…This matchup is too easy. So much so that it makes you want to over think it. The Braves love prep players from their own backyard, and Wheeler fits perfectly.
8. CINCINATTI – Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth/Amer. Assoc…The Reds have a penchant for drafting polished College players (Devin Mesoraco excluded) and they have visions of inserting Crow into their rotation as early as next season. Had Gibson not come up injured, he wouldn’t have gotten past here.
9. DETROIT – Jacob Turner, RHP, St. Charles, MO…The Tigers are not afraid to spend and have had success with prep pitchers. While Turner isn’t quite Porcello, this pick seems to make way too much sense.
10. WASHINGTON – Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt…The Nationals receive no compensation if they fail to sign this pick and they want to come away with two players that have a high probability to join the rotation in short order. Strasburg was a given, but Minor would be a relatively easy sign and be a nice left-handed complement. Chad Jenkins is also a possibility here.
11. COLORADO – Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri…With two picks early in the supplemental round the Rockies are in a unique position to pass on Gibson if he isn’t healthy. If he is, his repertoire should play well in Coors. Regardless, this is likely to be a college pitcher.
12. KANSAS CITY – Wil Myers, C/3B, Wesley Academy, NC…The Royals were hoping to have Green fall to here and they will look at other SS prospects like Mier and Franklin. Borchering is also a consideration, but with Moustakas and Hosmer already in the fold, that would be too much risk if Borchering ends up having to move to 1B. In the end though they will settle on Myers bat and worry later about where to play him.
13. OAKLAND – Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State…Wheeler is the kind of hitter that Billy Beane loves. I could tell you that one of the college pitchers like Alex White or Mike Leake might be considered here, but why? The Wheeler pick makes way too much sense.
14. TEXAS – Shelby Miller, Brownwood, TX…If we are even close as to how this thing unfolds, then Miller is an obvious choice for the Rangers who have shown a penchant for young flame throwing arms. If the rumors of Matt Purke’s asking price have been exaggerated, then he is also in play at this spot.
15. CLEVELAND – Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State…I reported yesterday about the Jason Kipnis rumors, and they did take Chisnhall much earlier than anyone else would have last year, so it wouldn’t totally shock me. Nonetheless, the Indians need pitching and a polished collegian like Leake makes excellent sense.
16. ARIZONA – Alex White, RHP, North Carolina…I believe the Diamondbacks have been targeting Leake for some time, so seeing him go to the Indians would hurt. But the fact that arguably the second best college pitcher in the draft is still available at this spot will have to quickly get them over their grief.
17. ARIZONA – Bobby Borchering, 3B/1B, Fort Myers, FL…Borchering will be in play at any number of spots from #4 on, and I do believe he has the best prep bat in the draft, but this looks like the best chance for him to go.
18. FLORIDA – Mike Trout, OF, Millville, NJ…Borchering seemed like the perfect pick for the Marlins, but with him off the board look for them to take a ‘toolsy’ prep player. I think Everett Williams will be considered but Mike Trout is the pick.
19. ST. LOUIS – Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb…Although there have been some rumors about prep thumper Randal Grichuk and the Cardinals, that would be too much of a reach for me. On the other hand, the Brothers pick would make way too much sense. Don’t forget about Kentucky LHP, James Paxton either.
20. TORONTO – Chad James, LHP, Yukon, OK…I believe this pick will be a pitcher and with players like Purke, James, Hobgood, Heckathorn, Jenkins and Oliver still on the Board, the Jays will have a lot of options. I think that Purke’s asking price is too high and he continues to slide and that leaves James as the high upside selection.
21. HOUSTON - Slade Heathcott, OF, Texarkana, TX…I never like the Astros draft, so why should this year be any different. Purke would be a natural fit here, but unless there is a significant hometown discount, that doesn’t appear likely. Heathcott is coming off of a monster Texas State playoff run and has as much helium as any player in the draft. Randall Grichuk and Everett Williams will also get consideration here.
22. MINNESOTA – Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford…With Joe Nathan getting a bit long in the tooth, a college closer makes a lot of sense. Also consider the Twins penchant for holding onto their $. They like Jared Mitchell who they drafted three years ago, but after Revere and Hicks were picked in the last two drafts, that kind of redundancy would be surprising.
23. CHICAGO WHITE SOX – James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky…Gordon Beckham fell into Kenny Williams’ lap last year, so I have to discount that to some degree. The reality is that I haven’t liked a White Sox draft before that in nearly a decade. They are desperate for a CF and I could see them taking Jared Mitchell, but I think the White Sox will surprise everyone—me included and actually make a great pick.
24. LOS ANGELES ANGELS – Reymond Fuentes, OF, Puerto Rico…The Angels like high upside players and Eddie Bane does a great job at finding the right ones. With 4 picks in the top 48 and 6 on the first day, the Angels will need to be opening up the checkbook often, so while I think this is the first real opportunity for Purke to go, he is likely still too expensive. Fuentes is the kind of ‘toolsy’ projection guys that the Angels love.
25. LOS ANGELES ANGELS – Jeff Malm, 1B, Las Vegas, NV…While this will be considered by many to be a reach, don’t count me among them. I love Malm’s bat and think when you couple this with the Fuentes pick the Angels have the early makings of a special draft.
26. MILWUAKEE – A.J. Pollock, OF, Notre Dame…The Brewers still fight signability issues and because of it expect them to pass on some of the higher upside prep arms available and take a college player. Either of the Kennesaw State pitchers could go here and Jared Mitchell will also be considered, but I think Pollock’s skill set is more of a sure thing.
27. SEATTLE – Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia…If there is one team that Poythress would be a perfect fit for, it is the Mariners. With only Mike Carp ahead of him, this would seem to make perfect sense for all involved.
28. BOSTON – Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College…Yes, Purke would work here and Boston could pay him, but the Red Sox system is currently loaded with pitchers stepping over each other for opportunities and they have a tremendous need to replace Varitek coming and no one to fill it. Playing in their own backyard, the Red Sox are plenty familiar with Sanchez and this would seem to be a perfect fit. Max Stassi, the top prep Catcher, will also be under consideration.

29. NEW YORK YANKEES – Matt Purke, LHP, Spring, TX…It must be wonderful to never have to worry about signability. The Yankees get a top 10 talent at the end of the first round.
30. TAMPA BAY – Max Stassi, C, Yuba City, CA…I really believe they will take whichever Catcher the Red Sox pass on. That said, Everett Williams will still be on the board and be looking very attractive.
31. CHICAGO CUBS – Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State…The Cubs system could use an infusion of position players, and Matt Davidson and Jiovanni Mier will be considered strongly. The addition of Tim Wilkinson has made the Cubs less predictable, especially when it comes to college or high school players. When you look at the Board though, the choice comes down to Heckathorn, Jenkins, Andy Oliver or Eric Arnett.
32. COLORADO – Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw State…The depth of college pitchers available in this draft make it nearly impossible to pass on a college pitcher here. Eric Arnett is another strong possibility.

Top Five Talents still on the Board – Matt Davidson, Yucaipa, CA; Jiovanni Mier, SS, Pomona, CA; Nick Franklin, SS, Lake Brantley, FL; Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana; Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco, CA.