TEAM #12 – Kansas City Royals

Montgomery has quietly become one of the Minors’ best arms

The Kansas City Royals check in at #12. With potentially eight prospects that may make the overall Top 100, there is a lot of quality at the top of this organization—but it falls off rapidly and the ‘B’ thru ‘C+’ level prospects are among the lightest in all of baseball. Perhaps more importantly, player development is a key issue with this franchise, as we have seen disappointing results coming from elite level draft picks (i.e. Moustakas and Hosmer), which has left the organization with only 1 position player prospect that earns a grade of ‘B’ or better that has played above A-ball. There are positive signs, including a number of quality prospects at the lower levels, and one of the most aggressive Latin American efforts over the last couple of seasons that should begin to pay dividends shortly and there is good balance between high-ceiling and low-floor types of players.

Grade A

1) Michael Montgomery, LHP (2009 Performance Scores – Dominance 57; Stamina 71; HRrate 50; Control 57)

Montgomery has been a personal favorite of ours for a couple of seasons now, as he brings the complete package that you want in a pitching prospect, namely: a competitive drive combined with a high baseball IQ, a low 90s fastball that could go a notch higher before he is done, quality secondary offerings with a potential plus change and above average curve, sound repeatable mechanics, precocious pitchability and command. While his ceiling is not short—potentially a Major League #2 starter material, his floor is about as high as they come for a 20yo pitcher. He used all of that in 2009, to post the second best Performance Score in the MWL, before posting an even more impressive top Performance Score in the Carolina (CAR) League. If you want to pick nits, you can talk about his weaknesses, namely his secondary offerings need work as he has a tendency to abandon them when he struggles, and his command still needs improvement, but they are things that time and experience should fix. Montgomery will pitch most of the 2010 season as a 20yo, and he is likely to begin it at AA. While he isn’t likely to see Kansas City this year, he looks like a good bet for the 2011 rotation.



2) Aaron Crow, RHP -

Crow allowed $500,000 to come between himself and the Nationals, causing him to sit out the 2009 season before getting drafted 12th (3 slots later than the previous year) and signing with the Royals for less money. We aren’t a fan of poor judgement, and are even less of a fan of a 23yo pitcher who has yet to throw a professional pitch. Nonetheless, the Royals did send him to the AZFL this fall, where he showed only minor rust, flashing a fastball that sat in the low-90s, and remarkable, given his layoff, command. Crow compliments his fastball with an above average curve. The downside here is that Crow is a fairly polished pitcher at this point, who isn’t likely to show much in the way of additional projection and his Change is not yet of Major League quality. The Royals could very well debut Crow at AA in 2010 where improving his change will be the focus. With the upside of a quality Major League #2, he could move rapidly—even seeing Kansas City before the year is out. If his Change doesn’t improve, he looks to have a solid floor at that of a back of the bullpen candidate.

Grade A -

3) Mike Moustakas, 3B (2009 – Power 71; First Base Rate 29; Discipline 62; Speed 55)

While we have never been as high on Moustakas as some have, things are getting a bit out of hand in downgrading him off of his disappointing 2009 performance. Coming off of a monster 2008, when he belted 28 home runs in the pitcher friendly MWL, the Royals aggressively promoted him to Hi-A, where he played the season as a 20yo. Despite the aggressive promotion, he still finished with a Top 10 Performance Score in the CAR. Power is his calling card, as over 40% of his hits go for extra bases. While he struggled at times against pitchers with better secondary stuff, his lightening quick bat allowed him to catch up to mistakes and he fanned only 17% of the time—despite a tremendously aggressive plate approach. Defense however is another matter. Moustakas was drafted as a SS, and quickly shifted over to third base. We warned at the time of his being drafted that we feel his eventual position will be RF or 1B—both of which will depress his value. Nothing we have seen so far has changed our opinion. The ceiling remains tremendously high for Moustakas, but the Royals need to be more patient with his development. He will open the season as a 21yo, and we would love to see another half-season at Hi-A—but don’t expect to get it.


4) Wil Myers, C/OF -

One of the biggest surprises, to us, of the 2009 draft was Myers, who we had rated as #23 on draft day, lasting all the way to the Royals at pick #91, where they signed him to mid-first round money. There are two things about Myers that we absolutely love: 1) His ‘diamond rat’ approach to the game where an observer would quickly assume that Myers would rather be playing baseball than do just about anything else and 2) his advanced bat that allows him to spray balls all over the diamond, with authority, seemingly at will. Myers is athletic, strong-armed and possesses decent speed for a catcher. Offensively, he shows plus power potential, and above average plate discipline and contact skills. The downside is that Myers is raw as a catcher, and may outgrow the position as he matures. We feel that he may be a better fit in RF, but the Royals will give him plenty of opportunities to behind the plate before moving him. Look for Myers to open 2010 in the MWL, where his advanced bat should perform quite well.


5) Danny Duffy, LHP (2009 – Dominance 66; Stamina 69; HRrate 49; Control 54)

Duffy continues to be one of the Minor League’s most underrated hurlers, as all that he has done since being a third round pick in 2007 is post the #2 Performance Score in the AZL in 2007, the #2 score in the MWL in 2008, and the #3 score in the CAR last season. Other than the lack of a truly overpowering fastball (his is a low 90s offering) and a tendency to throw across his body, we just don’t get what there is not to like. His curve ball shows plus potential, his change is at least an average offering, and his command—while sloppy at times, has always been at least League average. Add to that a solid baseball IQ and you have a pretty promising 21yo lefty. Duffy is likely to spend the 2010 season in the TXL. If he continues to put up the numbers he has in the past, the baseball world is going to have to take notice.


6) Noel Arguelles, LHP –

While Arguelles may be ‘the other Cuban lefty’ signed this off-season, he is likely a more polished pitcher than Chapman at this stage of his career—despite being only 20yo. With a low-90s fastball and potentially three Major League pitches, Arguelles has the upside of a mid-rotation starter. At this point it looks like Arguelles will begin the year in either the CAR or TXL, and it will be interesting to get some real numbers on him.


7) Tim Melville, RHP (2009 – Dominance 57; Stamina 68; HRrate 48; Control 40)

Melville was likely the top prep arm available in the 2008 draft, but lasted until the 4th round due to signability concerns. Melville possesses a heavy, low-90s, fastball and a potentially plus curve. Like many prep pitchers, his change is an underdeveloped offering at this stage. There is plenty of projection left in him. Melville has the ceiling of a front of the rotation starter if he can develop his change. On the downside, he has trouble repeating his delivery, and therefore his command leaves a lot to be desired. Look for Melville to begin 2010 at Hi-A.


8) Eric Hosmer, 1B (2009 – Power 40; First Base Rate 54; Discipline 45; Speed 34)

Tabbed by many as the top prep hitter available in the 2008 draft, his 2009 season has to be considered a huge disappointment. We urge caution in his assessment though, as he, like Moustakas, is a victim of an over aggressive promotion approach by Royal management. Hosmer played the entire 2009 season as a 19yo, and still posted a Top 20 Performance score in the MWL. Add to that, Hosmer had eye surgery at the end of the season, aimed at correcting some vision problems. Hosmer possesses plus power and contact potential. While he did fan in 21% of his PAs, he has shown the patience for taking a walk, and was playing the 2009 at a very precocious level. We are likely to give Hosmer somewhat of a mulligan for 2009, and still see him with the upside of an above average Major League first baseman. We aren’t convinced that, if Moustakas ends up developing at first base, Hosmer couldn’t become a solid right fielder. Look for him to repeat Hi-A at the beginning of 2010, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see significantly better results.

Grade B

9) John Lamb, LHP (2009 – Dominance 68; Stamina 71; HRrate 48; Control 58)

Lamb was a 5th round pick in 2008, who had missed his entire senior season due to injuries. The Royals were somewhat cautious with him, and he did not make his professional debut until the short season leagues opened this summer. Lamb made up for lost time, as he posted the Top pitching Performance score in the Pioneer League. Although there is plenty of projection here, Lamb’s fastball is currently only a 90Mph offering. While he controls it reasonably well, it is his pitchability where he scores the highest. On the downside, Lamb has thrown only 70 innings over the last two seasons and his secondary offerings are lagging. There is mid-rotation upside here, and he will likely take his act to full-season A-ball to begin the 2010 season.


10) Johnny Giavotella, 2B (2009 – Power 42; First Base Rate 71; Discipline 77; Speed 77

The Royals drafted Giavotella in the second round in 2008 and sent him to the MWL where he posted a Top 15 Performance Score in his debut. Moving up to the CAR in 2009, he bettered that with the #9 Performance Score in the League. Only 5’8”, Giavotella makes up what he lacks in size with a fierce baseball intensity. He possesses solid middle infield speed, excellent plate discipline and above average contact skills. The downside is that he will never hit for much power, and defensively he is below average. While this isn’t a significantly high-upside player, but he does profile as a solid utility infielder type at the Major League level. Expect Giavotella to move up to AA to start 2010.


11) David Lough, OF (2009 – Power 68; First Base Rate 53; Discipline 71; Speed 62)

After playing two seasons where he was a bit old for his League, the Royals finally challenged Lough with more age appropriate competition in 2009, when he finished the season as a 23yo in the TXL. Lough responded with his best performance of his career—posting the League’s #4 Performance score. Lough is a patient hitter, with plus speed and above average power and contact skills. He has the upside of an average Major League everyday outfielder, with a floor of a solid 4th OF type, if he can’t improve his splits against lefties. With only a little over 230 age-appropriate professional ABs, we still want to see more, and the Royals should provide Lough with that opportunity at AAA in 2010.


12) Chris Dwyer, LHP –

We had Dwyer rated as a second/third round talent on draft day, where the Royals picked him in the 4th round and gave him first round money. Scouts drool over his athleticism and Dwyer possesses a low 90s fastball and compliments it with a potentially plus curve. His change should end up as an at least average Major League offering. With that combination, Dwyer has the upside of a solid mid-rotation starter. The biggest negative for us is that, being a draft-eligible freshman, Dwyer isn’t as polished a pitcher as one would like for a 22yo. Add to that some disappointing control performances at Clemson, and you have a long way to get from where he is to a finished product—and a relatively short window to accomplish it. Expect Dwyer to make his full season debut at Hi-A. There is definitely upside here, but it comes with significant questions.


13) Yowill Espinal, SS (2009 – Power 59; First Base Rate 44; Discipline 54; Speed 64)

Espinal is another middle infielder without a tremendously high upside, but an intriguing set of skills. A solid athlete, Espinal has good speed, solid range and a strong arm. If he outgrows the shortstop position as he matures, second base would be a sound option. Offensively, Espinal doesn’t have any one skill that stands out, but he is solid across the board, save for his lack of patience at the plate. The Royals should challenge the 19yo Espinal with his first full-season assignment in 2010.


14) Jeff Bianchi, SS (2009 – Power 51; First Base Rate 65; Discipline 44; Speed 70)

Big things were expected from Bianchi after the Royals drafted him in the second round in 2005, and he posted a 1.229 OPS in his AZL debut, but a series of injuries and poor performances basically had Bianchi disappearing from the prospect radar screen entering the 2009 season. But Bianchi posted his best performance since his 2005 debut in stints in the CAR and TXL. With no exceptional skills, Bianchi does show solid average skills across the board, including solid defensive fundamentals, despite a tendency to chase too many bad balls at times. Bianchi is a low ceiling player, who probably possesses the upside of a slightly below average Major League middle infielder, but his floor is also not likely worse than a utility type. Look for him to cement his future role as a 23yo in AAA in 2010.



Grade B-

15) Jordan Parraz, RF (2009 – Power 71; First Base Rate 75; Discipline 75; Speed 34)

Parraz has been a fringy prospect, ever since the Astros made him a third round pick in 2004. While his numbers have been relatively solid throughout, he has invariably been a bit old for his League. 2009 was no exception, as Parraz played most of the season in AA as a 24yo. Still he posted the #5 Performance score in the TXL. Parraz possesses average power and contact skills. His strike zone management skills are his only true plus talent, as a string of injuries has diminished his, once, above average speed. Now a 25yo, Parraz looks likely to begin 2010 in AAA. While his ceiling isn’t tremendously high, he could very well see Kansas City at some point this season.


16) Kila Ka’aihue, 1B (2009 – Power 65; First Base Rate 75; Discipline 50; Speed 30)

Another player who has been a fringy prospect for some time, Ka’aihue broke out with a huge season in 2008, winning the TXL MVP award and getting a few late season ABs in Kansas City. Seemingly poised to win a roster spot in 2009, he found himself without any real opportunity and spent the entire season in AAA, posting solid, yet unspectacular, numbers. Ka’aihue has a solid bat, with above average power and contact skills, coupled with plus plate discipline. Unfortunately, he is only a marginal defensive firstbaseman, and has base-clogging speed. Ka’aihue will play the 2010 season as a 25yo. While he has a relatively high degree of certainty to spend some time in the Majors this season, the offensive bar is considerably higher for a player with his defensive liabilities. We don’t see a strong enough bat to be an everyday DH, so there is little likelihood that he becomes much more than a platoon type player.


17) Chester Cuthbert, 3B –

The Royals signed Cuthbert for $1.3MM in July, as part of what has to be considered one of the year’s most aggressive Latin American efforts. We had Cuthbert as a Top 10 Latin American talent entering the July signing period, as he is potentially the best position player to come out of Nicaragua. With a chiseled physique, Cuthbert possesses plus power potential and an advanced plate approach. Defensively he has soft hands and a strong arm, though there are questions about his lateral movement as he continues to mature. Expect Cuthbert to make his U.S. debut in the rookie League this summer. There is a significant upside here.


18) Derrick Robinson, CF (2009 – Power 33; First Base Rate 46; Discipline 65; Speed 80)

While scouts still drool over his blazing speed, it is becoming apparent that the 2006 4th round pick isn’t likely to hit enough to ever be an everyday Big League player. Now 22yo, Robinson still doesn’t show anything more than below average power and below average contact skills. He doesn’t walk enough to take full advantage of his speed. Defensively, he has Major League talent, and when combined with his base running ability, there remains a good chance that he may eventual find an opportunity as a Major League role player. With three appearances now in Hi-A, the Royals will advance him to AA in 2010. Unless something clicks that hasn’t been there in his first four seasons, there just isn’t much to see here.


19) Carlos Rosa, RP (2009 – Dominance 77; Stamina 29; HRrate 48; Control 34)

After six seasons as a starter, the Royals converted Rosa to the bullpen in 2009, and it looks to be the place where he will spend the remainder of his professional career. With a mid-90s fastball and a plus slider, Rosa has all the makings of a solid back of the bullpen contributor. He will have to continue to improve his command though if he is going to find Big League success, as he walks more than 4 batters per 9IP. Look for Rosa to compete for a spot in the Royals pen this spring. If he must return to AAA, he could be one of the first arms called up.


20) Tim Smith, LF (2009 – Power 56; First Base Rate 71; Discipline 67; Speed 68)

Acquired with Manny Pina in the Gutierrez trade, Smith is one of those players that never gets his just respect from the scouting community. With a bit below average power, plus contact skills, and above average speed and strike zone management skills, Smith posted a Top 20 Performance Score in the CAL, before posting the #9 score in the TXL. While not a high ceiling player, Smith has shown enough to believe that he could have a Major League career as a David Murphy type player. At 23yo, Smith is likely to be moved up to AAA in 2010, with a chance to contribute in Kansas City before the season’s end.



Grade C+ Prospects –

21) Tyler Sample, RHP; 22) Fernando Cruz, C; 22) Greg Billo, RHP; 23) Jason Taylor, 3B; 25) Edgar Osuna, LHP; 26) Louis Coleman, RHP; 27) Nick Van Stratten, LF; 28) Manny Pina, C; 29) Blake Wood, RHP; 30) Crawford Simmons, LHP; 31) Fernando Garcia, 2B.

Grade C Prospects –

Juan Abreu; Eric Basturto; Geulin Beltre; Jerico Blanco; Jose Bonilla; Edward Cegerra; Malcom Culver; Joe Dickerson; Jarrod Dyson; Carlos Fortuna; Juan Graterol; Blaine Hardy; Keaton Hayenga; Chris Hayes; Kelvin Herrera; Greg Holland; Dusty Hughes; Tug Hulett; Patrick Keating; Alex Llanos; Chris Lubanski; Sean McCauley; Kurt Mertins; Chris Nicoll; Dusty Oldenbach; Salvador Perez; Hilton Richardson; Clint Robinson; Jin-Ho Shin; Brandon Sisk; Ben Theriot; Cole White.

Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.


You can find an explanation of our grades here Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season. For additional information on our rankings methodology, see our recent Mailbag article here This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions.

TEAM #13 – New York Yankees

Montero looks certain to hit wherever he plays

No organization in baseball has paid bigger dividends with their Latin American program than have the Yankees. Whether it’s Montero at the top, or any of the six Latin American products that rank in the top ten, the fruits of this program are evident everywhere. The downside of this is that the Yankees recent performance in the Amateur draft, has been rather pedestrian--save a solid draft in 2006. While the organization checks in at #13, there is a rather large gap between Montero at the top and Romine at #2. Additionally, there isn’t a tremendous amount of top tier pitching talent here (even less after the Vasquez trade), with only three pitchers earning a grade of ‘B’ or better. One place where the organization is deep though is at catcher, with backstops occupying five (sort of) of the first eleven positions on this list. The other place that the organization is strong is in its depth, as 68 players have earned a grade of ‘C’ or better, which places them 5th overall in that area.




Grade A


1) Jesus Montero, C? (2009 Performance Scores – Power 79; First Base Rate 61; Discipline 73; Speed 31)

There are few certainties in the prospect game, but Montero has two things that are about as certain as they come: 1) He won’t be a full-time catcher at the Major League level and 2) Whatever position that he ends up at, Montero will rake with the best of them. Perhaps no prospect in the Minors has as complete/well-rounded of a hitting package as does Montero. He has plus power potential, above average contact skills, and plus strike zone management skills. His ability with the bat is as advanced as any 20yo that has come through in a long-time. While his league performance scores in the ESL and the FSL ranked #3 and #4 in all of the Minors, his cumulative score was the best hitter score of the 2009 season. The downside with Montero has to do with his defense, as he is slow and stiff, and has little chance at staying behind the plate. As he continues to mature, he will likely end up with base-clogging speed, and defensively be limited to first base or DH. With Texiera already in place, he is somewhat blocked for the foreseeable future. Look for him to spend most of 2010 at AAA. While his bat is likely to be Major League ready before the season is out, unless a trade takes place, don’t expect him in New York before September.



Grade A-


2) Manny Banuelos, LHP (2009 – Dominance 60; Stamina 60; HRrate 49; Control 61)

While there is a relatively large gap between #1 and #2 in the Yankee system, one that was made larger with the trade of Vizcaino, don’t underestimate the diminutive left-hander from Mexico. Signed as a 17yo, shortly before the 2008 season, Banuelos posted a Top 20 performance score in his GCL debut. As one of the youngest players in the SAL in 2009, he finished at #6. Banuelos is extremely advanced for his age. He possesses a low-90s fastball with plus command. Additionally, his change has plus potential and he has a decent curve. While scouts ding him for his size, and therefore his lack of projection, his floor is significantly high, as he looks like a solid bet to become either a mid-rotation starter, or, in worst case, a solid back of the bullpen guy. Look for him to spend 2010 in Hi-A, taking things one level per year.


3) Austin Romine, C (2009 – Power 72; First Base Rate 39; Discipline 63; Speed 59)

We aren’t as high on Romine as are some, because we just don’t see a very high ceiling here. While he possesses above average power skills, and a solid overall defensive package, Romine remains an aggressive free swinger that lacks significant on-base skills. The total package, to us, appears to have the ceiling of an average Major League backstop, with the likelihood ending up as something less. But as currently the top backstop prospect in the system and Posada getting up there in age, he is likely to get a shot. Romine will likely spend most of 2010 in AA, at least until Montero stops playing at catcher.


4) Zach McAllister, RHP (2009 – Dominance 53; Stamina 70; HRrate 49; Control 68)

McAllister is a very polished pitcher with a solid four-pitch arsenal that he commands extremely well. The downside is that his best pitch is likely his 90mph fastball and he lacks a dominant out-pitch. This gives him the extreme upside of a mid-rotation starter, but he is likely to end up as a back of the rotation guy. The good news is that his certainty for that appears to be quite high, as he looks to begin 2010 in AAA, seeing New York sometime during the second-half of the season.



Grade B+


5) Gary Sanchez, C -

While many had Sanchez as the #2 position player prospect that was signed out of Latin America in 2009, we are a bit more cautious, as his prodigious batting practice displays haven’t, as of yet, transferred well to game situations. The Yankees courted him seemingly forever, eventually signing him for a $3mm bonus. While they seem comfortable, for now, in his ability to stay at catcher, that too is not a given, as he has a lumbering approach and very raw defensive backstop skills. With the potential for both plus power and plus contact skills, his ceiling is extremely high, and we should get our first real look at him in the GCL in 2010.


6) Kelvin De Leon, OF (2009 – Power 79; First Base Rate 43; Discipline 32; Speed 58)

De Leon was the Yankees’ top International signee in 2007, making his debut in 2008 in the DSL where he finished with the #6 Performance Score. The Yankees sent him to the GCL this past season, where he finished with the #9 score. De Leon earns this lofty ranking, more for his projection and complete package than he does for his performance thus far, as he possesses not only plus power potential, but a strong arm and solid RF defensive skills. While he has the ceiling of an everyday power hitting right fielder, he will have to improve his tremendously over-aggressive, free-swinging, approach at the plate, that has led to horrid plate discipline results. De Leon will get his first taste of full-season A-ball in 2010, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a breakout performance.


7) Slade Heathcott, OF -

After spending most of the season rehabbing from knee surgery and a shoulder injury, and playing mostly DH, Heathcott lit it up for a few games in the Texas state playoffs that pushed up his stock considerably. So much so that they Yankees grabbed him at #29—though we had him as a likely mid- to late- second round talent. Heathcott is one of those highly athletic, toolsy, projection guys that we tend to not like as much as others do. A standout pitcher in high school, Heathcott, is speedy and has a solid arm. Offensively he is a power guy. Some of our biggest concerns center around both his injury history, and academic problems, both of which caused him to miss time in 2009. The Yankees are likely to keep Heathcott in extended spring training to start 2010, before deciding on his eventual assignment.


8) Jairo Heredia, RHP (2009 – Dominance 61; Stamina 65; HRrate 49; Control 78)

Limited by injuries to only 38 innings in 2009, once healthy, the Yankees top International signee from 2006 continued to show the tremendous command that is his trademark. While Heredia doesn’t have a significantly high ceiling, his secondary offerings do show plus potential. The downside is that his fastball is currently only a high-80s offering, and he has had extreme difficulty staying healthy. Heredia will pitch the 2010 season as a 20yo, and should return to Hi-A to open things up.



Grade B


9) J.R. Murphy, C -

We had Murphy as a late second round pick, and that is where the Yankees drafted him before giving him first round money to keep him away from his commitment to Miami. Murphy possesses an advanced bat, with above average power and solid contact skills. He is an athletic player with enough raw skills for him to develop into an average big league catcher. The downside is that Murphy is not very big, and doesn’t have a lot of additional projection. His catching skills remain extremely raw at this point. Nonetheless, we expect his advanced hitting approach to allow him to begin 2010 in full-season A-ball.


10) Eduardo Nunez, SS (2009 – Power 47; First Base Rate 65; Discipline 74; Speed 77)

It’s tough being a SS prospect in an organization with Derek Jeter as the face of your franchise. That is the plight faced by Nunez, who, after a breakout 2005 had established himself as one of the Yankees most exciting prospects, but posted three straight disappointing seasons, practically falling off of the prospect map, before rebounding in a big way (#8 Performance score in the ESL) in 2009. Nunez possesses above average speed and strike zone management skills, and solid on-base skills. While he will never hit for much power and has only average defensive skills at SS, there is enough of a skill set to see him having a lengthy utility infielder type career at the Major League level. While the ceiling isn’t tremendously high, his being the likely starting SS at AAA in 2010, gives a fairly strong degree of certainty.



Grade B-


11) Kyle Higashioka, C (2009 – Power 46; First Base Rate 68; Discipline 74; Speed 29)

Higashioka is a solid defensive catcher with advanced plate discipline skills and above average contact skills. While he is unlikely to ever be an offensive superstar, his combination of the offensive and defensive package may rate as the highest in an organization loaded with catching prospects. The downside is that his slap hitting approach is unlikely to ever generate much power. Once again, this is a player with a limited ceiling that has become a trend throughout the organization. Higashioka will get his first taste of full season A-ball in 2010.


12) Mark Melancon, RP (2009 – Dominance 75; Stamina 27; HRrate 49; Control 72)

Melancon is a pure bullpen candidate that possesses a mid-90s fastball, complemented by an above average curve. Up until his brief stint in the Majors last season, Melancon had demonstrated plus command that has been his trademark since his return from Tommy John surgery after the 2006 season. Melancon has a closer mindset, and looks to be the organization’s best bet to replace Rivera when he hangs up his spikes. While there is not a lot of additional projection that we are likely to see, his floor is that of a quality Major League set-up guy. He has a strong chance of opening the 2010 season in New York.


13) Jeremy Bleich, LHP (2009 – Dominance 45; Stamina 70; HRrate 49; Control 44)

The Yankees’ supplemental first round pick in 2008, had what has to be considered a disappointing 2009 debut. Already a polished college lefty with little remaining projection, Bleich plodded through stints in the FSL and ESL—looking very pedestrian. While he has the upside of a back of the rotation starter, the lack of a dominant out pitch and only average control, raise questions as to how close he will come to reaching it. The good news is that he is likely to begin 2010 with a return to AA in 2010 before moving to AAA by mid-season. At only 22yo, he has a strong certainty of seeing a big league opportunity.


14) D.J. Mitchell, RHP (2009 – Dominance 61; Stamina 74; HRrate 50; Control 60)

Keeping up the pattern of low ceiling players, Mitchell possesses one of the Minor League’s best sinkers, but his secondary offerings only hope to be average pitches. His upside is that of a back of the rotation starter, but more likely he is going to end up in a bull pen somewhere. 2010 is a critical year for him, as he moves up to AA—as a 23yo. If he is to remain a rotation consideration we will have to see evolution of his secondary offerings this year.


15) Corban Joseph, 2B (2009 – Power 44; First Base Rate 78; Discipline 72; Speed 47)

Many in the Yankee organization are higher on Joseph than are we. The Yankees 4th round choice in 2008, posted a solid debut in the GCL after signing, and then eerily similar numbers again this year in the SAL , where he posted the #15 Performance Score. Joseph is a hard-nosed player with above average plate discipline skills and plus contact skills. While he has the potential for average power, he lacks speed for the middle of the diamond and possesses questionable defensive skills—enough so that it may precipitate a move off of second base, where his value would take a further hit. Joseph is likely to begin 2010 in Hi-A, where we are going to have to see more or he is likely to slide down this list next season.


16) Abraham Almonte, OF (2009 – Power 40; First Base Rate 66; Discipline 66; Speed 80)

Only 5’9”, and having never posted an OPS higher than .778 in three stateside seasons, doesn’t incite tons of excitement, but we have been intrigued by the portly outfielder ever since he posted the top Performance score in the DSL in 2006. 2009 has to be considered somewhat of a breakout year for him as he posted the #8 Score in the SAL. Only 20yo, Almonte is extremely athletic despite his proportions, and shows enough skills to potentially play at any of the three outfield positions. This past season he cut his strikeout rate from 21% in 2008 down to 17%. While he possesses solid raw speed, it is enhanced by sound base running instincts. With above average contact skills, he could develop into a solid top of the order threat—even without having much in the way of power. Look for Almonte to continue his progression at Hi-A in 2010.


17) Andrew Brackman, RP (2009 – Dominance 47; Stamina 51; HRrate 48; Control 20)

While understanding he had elbow troubles, the Yankees felt they were getting a steal when they drafted Brackman at the end of the first round in 2007. Two years later we have to begin to ask who was actually getting robbed, as the Yankees could be on the hook for as much as $13mm. Brackman has not been the same since Tommy John surgery. He made his professional debut in the, now defunct Hawaiian Winter League after the 2008 season, and made his full season debut in the SAL this year—as a 23yo, and, despite fanning nearly a batter per inning, showed almost no control. Worse yet, his once upper 90s velocity, was erratic all season, sitting between the upper 80’s and mid-90s. While the Yankees still have hopes for him as a starter, we see little hope for him to have three Major League pitches—as he has nearly completely forsaken his Change at this point. 2010 is an absolutely critical year for Brackman, as he is likely to open up the season as a 24yo in Hi-A. Command is usually the last thing to return after Tommy John surgery, so we will give him another season before writing him off, but we don’t expect the velocity to return to pre-surgery levels.


18) Jose A. Ramirez, RHP (2009 – Dominance 65; Stamina 77; HRrate 48; Control 59)

The Yankees are a considerably excited about Ramirez, who was nearly unhittable in the GCL this past year, featuring an electric low- to mid-90s fastball and a wipeout Change. A slender 6’1”, Ramirez still has plenty of projection left. The downside is that he is currently without a viable third pitch and will be relegated to a bullpen role without one. Ramirez will begin the 2010 as a 20yo in Hi-A. With as much helium as anyone in the system, he could move up this list considerably with a solid season.


19) Ivan Nova, RHP (2009 – Dominance 35; Stamina 72; HRrate 49; Control 39)

Unlike Ramirez who has an enormous ceiling, Nova is a polished pitcher with little projection left and a low-ceiling. However, Nova is a near Major League ready product who could see considerable Big League time in 2010. While likely destined for the end of the rotation or bull pen role, Nova’s raw stuff has always outdistanced his results. Nova features a heavy low-90s fastball, and compliments it with solid secondary offerings, still he only managed 5.8 strikeouts per 9IP in stints in the ESL and INT in 2009. Expect him to return to AAA to open the season, and could be the first starter called up should the Yankees need one.




Grade C+ Prospects –

20) Zolio Almonte, OF; 21) Kevin Russo, 2B; 22) David Adams, 2B; 23) Caleb Cotham, RHP; 24) Dellin Betances, RHP; 25) Yeicock Calderon, RF; 26) Hector Noesi, RP; 27) Jamie Hoffman, RF; 28) Jose Prela, SS; 29) Damian Taveras, C; 30) Neil Medchill, LF; 31) Wilkin De La Rosa, LHP; 32) Reegie Corona, 2B; 33) George Kontos, RHP.



Grade C Prospects –

Sean Black; Daniel Brewer; Gavin Brooks; Chris Cabrera; Francisco Cervelli; Evan DeLuca; Alan Horne; Brandon Laird; Ericson Leonora; Deangelo Mack; Juan Marcano; Brett Marshall; Melky Mesa; Juan Miranda; Bryan Mitchell; Deivi Mojica; Luke Murton; Rey Nunez; Jimmy Paredes; Ramiro Pena; David Phelps; Ryan Pope; Matt Richardson; Melvin Rosario; Humberto Sanchez; Romulo Sanchez; Ravel Santana; Eduardo Sosa; Damon Sublett; Graham Stoneburner; Brad Suttle; Pat Venditte; Adam Warren; Kevin Whelan; David Winfree.




Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.


You can find an explanation of our grades here Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season. For additional information on our rankings methodology, see our recent Mailbag article here This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions.

TEAM #14 – Florida Marlins

Stanton sports one of the Minors most potent bats

Team #14 is the Florida Marlins. While we like the top three players in the organization—quite a bit, the elite level talent drops off quickly, with only seven players earning a grade of ‘B’ or better. You have to go all the way back to the Houston Astros at #27 to find a team with as few as seven B-prospects. The strength of the organization, and hence how it earned this ranking is the overall organizational depth, as the 65 players that earn a grade of ‘C’ or better is the most that we have encountered thus far. Of particular concern, is the lack of quality arms, with only 5 pitchers earning a ‘B-‘. While Chad James is still a relative wild card, the last two drafts have to rate as somewhat disappointing. Furthermore, not including 2009, the last 8 Marlin first round picks have been: Kyle Skipworth, Matt Dominguez, Brett Sinkbeil, Jacob Marceaux, Aaron Thompson, Chris Volstad, Taylor Tankersley and Jeff Allison. With Skipworth floundering in A-ball, it appears that only Domiguez and Volstad have a chance to become impact Major League players. While the Marlins have produced better results with their later picks, their failures in the first round have not helped them. As deep as the organization goes, the likelihood is that some of the prospects that currently earn C/C+ grades will eventually become B-level players, and that should help, but for an organization that has consistently appeared in the top half of baseball, things aren’t as bright as they once were.




Grade A


1) Michael Stanton, RF (2009 Performance Scores – Power 80; First Base Rate 43; Discipline 26; Speed 35)

The Marlins moved Hermida, with Stanton in mind, so there is little doubt as to how they feel about him. Stanton played the 2009 season as a 19yo. He tore through the FSL, where he posted not only the League’s best Performance score, but the second highest score posted by any Minor League player all season. The Marlins then promoted him to the Southern League (SOL), where Stanton was met with his first taste of adversity since his professional debut in 2007. While there are those in the Marlins’ organization that feel Stanton is ready to jump to the Big League club this season, don’t count us among that group. Stanton has as much raw power as any player in the Minors, with good instincts, a quick first step and a powerful arm, he is an exceptional talent. His baseball IQ is very good, and his work ethic is absolute first rate. However, there are still weaknesses to his game, and they were exposed a bit against the more advanced pitchers of the SOL. His nearly 27% strikeout portends significant problems at higher levels. Stanton should begin 2010 back in AA. Providing he shows improvements in his plate discipline, he should be the Marlins RF by the end of the season.



2) Logan Morrison, 1B (2009– Power 67; First Base Rate77; Discipline 62; Speed 60)

An early season wrist injury limited Morrison’s development in 2009, but he is still one of the Minor’s most intriguing players—a natural first baseman with tremendous plate discipline, and one who is still able to generate power. Morrison is another Hi baseball IQ, excellent work ethic player that we have difficulty finding fault with. Despite his size, he is athletic, a solid first base defender, has plus contact skills, and plus Power. Although no speedster, he even managed to swipe 9 bases last year. Though not a fair comparison for anyone, there is no reason to not consider a Justin Morneau type player as his upside. Additionally, he is a high-floor player who is unlikely to become less than an average, everyday, Major League first baseman. With Gaby Sanchez ahead of him, the Marlins are likely to keep Morrison at AAA for most of the season, but make no mistake…he is their future first baseman—likely in 2011.


Grade A-


3) Matt Dominguez, 3B (2009– Power 66; First Base Rate 37; Discipline 47; Speed 33)

Dominguez will be an everyday third baseman in the Major League’s because even if his offense never reaches its potential, his glove is that good. Easily the Minor’s best defensive first baseman, many consider Dominguez’s 2009 season to be a step back. Don’t consider us among them, because Dominguez posted the #5 Performance Score in both the 2008 SAL and the 2009 FSL. While he had some trouble with the adjustment to AA, one must remember that he was playing there as a 19yo. As is often the case with exceptional defensive players, Dominguez has been aggressively promoted, and his offense just hasn’t caught up with his defense. When all is said and done, we expect that Dominguez will have average third base power and contact skills, with plus strike zone management skills. Expect him to have a career that falls, offensively, someplace between Jeff Cirillo and Scott Rolen. Dominguez is likely to begin 2010 at AA. It is our hope that they keep him there the entire season.



Grade B+


4) Chad James, LHP -

We seem to be somewhat in the minority, but we had trouble with this pick when the Marlins took James at #18 last June. It is not that we didn’t expect it, as the Marlins are extremely thin when it comes to premium pitching talent, it’s just that with prep players like Mike Trout and Shelby Miller on the board, and a host of better value college pitchers (i.e. Gibson, Scheppers, etc.), this seemed like the wrong spot to take James—who we had rated as the #34 overall talent. Don’t get us wrong, James has significant upside, has a projectable frame, already throws a low-90s fastball, and possesses two secondary offerings (Curve and Change) that rate among the best in June’s prep class. On the downside, James has some mechanical issues with his delivery that will likely be command impediments until they are corrected. More importantly, when you look at his database comps, the washout rate for similar players is extremely high—the second highest among the Top 25 picks in the draft. James’ repertoire is fairly advanced. While the Marlins won’t make a final decision as to where he makes his debut until this Spring, it should be in full-season A-ball.


5) Gaby Sanchez, 1B (2009– Power 74; First Base Rate 77; Discipline 68; Speed 56)

Sanchez will enter Spring Training as the favorite to win the opening day firstbase job. At 26yo, there isn’t a lot of upside left here, so what you see is likely all that you are going to get, and it isn’t stuff that is really up to snuff for an everyday Major League first baseman. We are expecting his performance over the next two seasons, before Morrison takes over, to be somewhere in the neighborhood of .260/.330/.420. But given the opportunity available to him, and a very good plate discipline, his floor is equally set, making him one of the surest bets going. With Sanchez being a notch below the top three talents on this list, we wouldn’t be surprised to see him dealt as soon as Morrison is ready.



Grade B


6) Ryan Tucker, RP -

Knee surgery essentially wiped out the 2009 season for Tucker, and with it a critical season of development. Now 23yo, Tucker, who was once thought to be a mid-rotation candidate with his mid-90s fastball, and marginal Slider and Change, appears to be destined for the back end of the Marlin bullpen. While his attacking approach may be his greatest strength, control and mental coolness appear to be his biggest obstacles. Look for Tucker to compete for a bullpen spot in Spring Training. If he fails there, he’ll begin in AAA and certainly join the Marlins sometime in 2010.


7) Marcell Ozuna, RF (2009– Power 79; First Base Rate 62; Discipline 47; Speed 46)

The ranking on Ozuna, who finished with the #5 Performance score in the GCL, has likely more to do with the state of the Marlins’ system, of which we warned--thins out early. As an 18yo, Marcel shows plus power, with average contact, strike zone management and defensive skills. Once Stanton joins the Big League club, Ozuna becomes the best OF prospect in the system. Still a considerable ways off, Ozuna has the ceiling of a power hitting, everyday, Major League RF. He should get his first taste of full-season ball in Greensboro in 2010.



Grade B-


8) Kyle Skipworth, C (2009– Power 62; First Base Rate 23; Discipline 23; Speed 31)

At this moment, Skipworth owns the mantle of the most disappointing pick of the 2008 draft class. Chosen as an offensive minded catcher, with scouts throwing around comparisons to Joe Mauer, the only thing offensive about Skipworth has been his performance. 2009 was little different than his debut, as he limped in with a .612 OPS in the SAL. In a similar position as Kevin Ahrens of the Blue Jays (the 2007 version of Skipworth), there is little explanation for his poor showings, as he continues to show the same fundamentally sound approach that got him drafted at #6 overall. On a positive note, the defense has been better than advertised, giving continued rise to the belief that Skipworth might one-day get close to his enormous ceiling. Skipworth is a difficult evaluation for us, as his strike zone management skills have been atrocious and all comps at this stage are beginning to point downward. 2010 will be a key year, as if things don’t turn around, Skipworth is likely to plummet down this list. With only 264 At Bats above rookie ball, Skipworth should return to Greensboro to begin the season. The upside remains high, but the certainty gets lower.


9) Jake Smolinski, 3B/2B/? (2009– Power 70; First Base Rate 60; Discipline 72; Speed 31)

We believe in Smolinski more than most, mainly because we feel that even if his glove can’t find a home in the infield, Smolinski has shown enough offensively, as evidenced by his #6 Performance Score in the SAL, to be playable in the OF, and his floor looks to be that of a 4th OF type. Injuries may be his biggest drawback, though, as through three professional seasons, he has only amassed 670 ABs. We like Smolinski’s make up, as he is a hard-nosed kid he shows at least average power, solid contact skills, and excellent plate discipline skills. Only 21yo, he should begin 2010 at Hi-A. If he can stay healthy all season, this could be a breakout year.



10) Brad Hand, LHP (2009 – Dominance 51; Stamina 67; HRrate 48; Control 26)

Hand entered 2009 poised for a breakout season, after a solid 2008 debut, and then gave up 32 ERs in his first 39 innings of the season. Fortunately he righted the train in the season’s second half and finished with a Top 25 Performance Score in the SAL. With a low-90s fastball and two secondary offerings with Major League potential, including a plus Curve, Hand has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. While Hand, uncharacteristically, walked nearly 5 batters per 9IP in the first half of the season, after the all-star break that number was back down to just over 4. Hand comes from the upper Midwest, where prep pitchers typically take a bit longer to develop. He will play the entire 2010 season as a 20yo, likely starting in Hi-A.


11) Jhan Marinez, RHP (2009 – Dominance 66; Stamina 27; HRrate 48; Control 34)

Still more thrower than pitcher at this stage, Marinez checks in at #11 on the potential of his arm that is producing mid-90s heat. While that may be good enough to set his considerable ceiling, there are plenty of caution flags. Marinez has dealt with many maturity issues thus far in his young career. He has a relatively low baseball IQ and questionable work ethic. His secondary offerings are fringy at best, and he often times struggles with control. While he is young at 21yo, he is hardly tremendously precocious. The Marlins have visions of him becoming a front of the rotation starter. While not impossible, the hill is steep from here, and we would more likely bet on a back of the bullpen reliever. 2010 will likely find him in AA.


12) Isaac Galloway, CF (2009– Power 47; First Base Rate 27; Discipline 40; Speed 58)
Galloway is another prospect valued more at this stage for his tools rather than his skills. At one time Galloway was considered a lock for the first round of the 2008 draft, but the Marlins were able to get him in round 8. Galloway is one of those classic highly-athletic, ‘toolsy’, project types that we have little fondness for. With 500 professional At Bats under his belt, we still find ourselves liking him less than others do, as we see only potentially average power, poor contact and poor plate discipline skills. His speed is his only true plus potential skill, but even that appears to only translate to an above average skill on the diamond thus far. Defensively he is raw, and he lacks the arm strength that would guarantee that he remains in CF. Galloway will play 2010 as a 20yo in Hi-A, so he is being pushed aggressively. We will have to see more to enhance our opinion of him.


13) Bryan Berglund, RP -

Although we had Berglund as a 3rd round pick heading into the draft, the Marlins took him in the second round and signed him for 3rd round money. A rather polished pitcher for his age, Berglund features a low-90s fastball, a potentially plus Change, and a solid Slider. There is still some projection left in him, so he may even add a couple of ticks to the fastball. With the long-term ceiling of a solid mid-rotation starter, we expect the Marlins to let Berglund debut in full-season A-ball.


14) Bryan Petersen, LF (2009– Power 40; First Base Rate 73; Discipline 66; Speed 50)

Petersen played the 2009 season in the same outfield with Prospect #15, Scott Cousins, where he posted a better OPS and a better Performance Score, despite Cousins being fifteen months older. Yet…we are one of the few places Petersen rated higher, because he is less athletic, and possesses less in the way of tools. We don’t find either player to have a significant upside and both are unlikely to ever earn the role of everyday player. That said, we like Petersen’s contact and plate discipline skills and think his certainty quotient, given the age difference, is a bit higher. Petersen is likely to begin 2010 in AAA, and will be battling Cousins for a spot on the Marlins’ roster.


15) Scott Cousins, CF (2009– Power 65; First Base Rate 34; Discipline 43; Speed 78)

Cousins has certainly paid his dues since being drafted in the 3rd round of 2006, as he changed positions, battled injuries, been blocked, and now finally finds himself looking at a potential roster spot with the Big League club, sometime in 2010. People in the organization feel that Cousins tool set, provides him with one of the highest position player upsides in the system. We don’t see it, as nearly 1300 professional At Bats project him to be no better than a 4th OF/platoon type. Cousins shows plus speed skills, and potentially average power. Defensively, he can play any of the three OF slots. On the flip-side, he doesn’t make enough contact to take advantage of his speed, and strikes out too much (20% in 2009). Additionally, his OPS was 120 points lower against lefties. Cousins will be given a look in Spring Training, but is likely to begin the year in AAA. At 25yo, it’s time for the tools to start producing.




Grade C+ Prospects –

16) Jose Ceda, RHP; 17) Sequoyah Stonecipher, OF; 18) Thomas Hickman, OF; 19) Wilfredo Gimenez, C; 20) Osvaldo Martinez, SS; 21) Edgar Olmos, LHP; 22) Alejandro Sanabia, RHP; 23) Jai Miller, RF; 24) Kyle Kaminska, RHP; 25) Brent Keys, OF; 26) P.J. Dean, RHP; 27) Brett Sinkbeil, RHP; 28) Jose Torres,SS; 29) Jay Voss, LHP; 30) Jose Rosario, RHP; 31) A.J. Ramos, RP; 32) Josh Hodges, RHP; 33) Kyle Winters, RHP.



Grade C Prospects –

Jeff Allison; Jose Alvarez; Chase Austin; Daniel Jennings; Luis Bryan; Greg Burns; Steve Cishek; Marquise Cooper; Chad Cregar; Dustin Dickerson; Jared Eskew; Daniel Gil; Brett Hayes; Justin Jacobs; Daniel Jennings; Kyle Jensen; Jorge Jimenez; Graham Johnson; Tom Koehler; Chris Leroux; Dan Mahoney; Matt Montgomery; Luis Ortiz; Garrett Parcell; Carlos Paulino; Curtis Petersen; Daniel Pertusati; Stephen Richards; Christopher Shafer; Graham Taylor; Dallas Trahern; Elih Villanueva; Chris Wade.




Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.


You can find an explanation of our grades here Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season. For additional information on our rankings methodology, see our recent Mailbag article here This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions.

TEAM #15 – Philadelphia Phillies

After a series of prospect laden trades, Dominic Brown distances the Phillies field

The Philadelphia Phillies check in at #15, something that would have been hard to imagine as recent as last June, but a couple of deals that involved high profile prospects for Cliff Lee, and then Roy Hallady, have gutted the Phillies’ system. While Phillies’ management would like you to believe, they broke-even when they dealt Lee to the Mariners, there is no way that the prospects that the Phillies got back match-up with what they gave up to get him. If the Phillies’ Minor League system was a rock band, it would be called Dominic Brown and the no-names, as the gap between Brown and the rest of the system is light years. In fact it is quite likely that the all of the seven prospects that the Phillies have dealt since last June would have all rated ahead of the top original #3 Anthony Gose, had they still been with the system. Another problem that we have with the Phillies’ system, is that they have followed a broken script of drafting highly-athletic, toolsy, position player ‘projects’ that just haven’t developed. The system is absolutely loaded with them. Obvious by their middle of the pack ranking, there is still some talent here, but this is a system that is no longer very deep, and a system that quite possibly would have been one of the top two in baseball without the trades.




Grade A


1) Dominic Brown, RF (2009 Performance Scores– Power 75; First Base Rate 64; Discipline 48; Speed 66)

We likely don’t rate Brown as highly as many sources, because, while the tools may be there, they haven’t yet fully translated into measurable skills, as demonstrated by his #21 Performance score in the ESL (he did finish at #4 in the FSL). Brown is an athletically gifted specimen that ‘oozes’ tools. He has quick wrists, a strong arm, and tremendous speed. While he only hit 14 HRs in 2009, we see above average power potential here. His bat speed compensates and allows him to make average contact, and he has the ability to take a walk—not a given for a 22yo. While we could pick nits about his under developed baseball instincts, the only real caution flag that we see is his tendency to flail at pitches out of the strike zone, which led to a nearly 20% strikeout rate in 2009 (21% against the more advanced pitching that he faced in the AZFL). It is rare to find such an athletic, ‘toolsy’ player that has such a high-floor. It is hard not to envision him patrolling right field in Philadelphia sometime in 2011. That said, while stardom is his ceiling, it would also not surprise us if he eventually becomes ‘just’ an above average, everyday, Major League right fielder. Brown’s AZFL performance highlighted the fact that there is still more work to be done here, and Brown would definitely benefit from another year in the Minor Leagues. Expect him to spend it at AAA.



Grade B+


2) Tyson Gillies, CF (2009 – Power 36; First Base Rate 77; Discipline 71; Speed 78)

Gillies is the most intriguing prospect that the Phillies got back in the Cliff Lee deal. He profiles as the classic top of the order CF, with sound defense, plus speed, above average strike zone management skills, and excellent on-base skills, as his park-adjusted First Base Rate ranked #3 in the CAL in 2009. The downside is that Gillies has below average power, and isn’t likely to develop any. Unlike many speedsters that fail to succeed as they move up the ladder, Gillies has the plate discipline skills that should carry him all the way to the Majors. While he will likely never be a star, it is likely that he has a lengthy career as a top of the order table setter. The 21yo is likely to begin 2010 in AA, and reach Philadelphia sometime in 2011.


3) Anthony Gose, CF (2009 – Power 36; First Base Rate 49; Discipline 56; Speed 80)

Since Greg Golson in 2004, the Phillies have had a penchant for spending high draft picks on ‘toolsy’, athletic , OF projects. 2008 alone yielded Anthony Hewitt, Zach Collier, and Anthony Gose. While many of the picks look extremely questionable in retrospect, the Gose selection looks like it just may bear fruit. With only 39 ABs in his 2008 debut, 2009 was, for all practical purposes, his debut, and as one of the youngest everyday players in the SAL, the 18yo held his own, finishing with the #9 Performance score. In an organization with a ton of ‘speed’ prospects, we like Gose’s overall speed package the best, as he swiped 76 bases in 2009. But speed isn’t Gose’s only exceptional skill, as he has the range to play center and one of the best arms (pitchers included) in the entire organization. His bat raises the biggest questions, but there is enough to project average CF power, above average on-base skills, and eventually average plate discipline skills-despite fanning 20% of the time in 2009. Don’t misunderstand us, Gose is still a project that has a long way to go, but he will play the 2010 season as a 19yo in Hi-A. If the Phillies show patience with his development, they could field one of the fastest outfields in the game by 2012.


4) Trevor May, RHP (2009 – Dominance 75; Stamina 69; HRrate 49; Control 24)

2009 brought a couple extra ticks to the large-framed (6’5”, 215lbs) May’s fastball, now a low-90s offering, and it allowed him to have a breakout season. Only 19yo for the entire year, May more than held his own in the SAL, finishing with the League’s #7 Performance score. His best pitch however may be his power curve. Still tremendously raw, May’s Change is very much a work in process, but shows potential. More importantly, he did have periodic bouts where his control vanished, as he walked more than five batters per 9IP during the season. His ceiling is that of a mid-rotation starter, but there is much to be done before he gets there. The journey begins for him at Hi-A in 2010.


5) Sebastian Valle, C (2009 – Power 68; First Base Rate 35; Discipline 53; Speed 31)

2009 was an interesting year for Valle, as he began the year in full-season ball, where he proved to be over-matched. When the NYP opened in June, the Phillies sent him there, where he had a monster year, eventually posting the #2 Performance Score in the League. But it didn’t end there, as perhaps the most impressive part of the 18yo/19yo’s season came this Winter in the Mexican League, where he finished 6th in the League in home runs with only 160 ABs and posted an .882 OPS. There is a sizeable upside here and a lot of potential to like, and after a Top 15 Performance score in the GCL in 2008, and the #2 score in the DSL in 2007, Valle has a demonstrated track record of success. With plus power potential and an advanced strike zone management approach Valle has all the makings of a potential everyday Big League player…the concern is at what position. With poor footwork, raw game calling ability, average receiving skills, and a below average arm, he isn’t a strong candidate to remain behind the plate. Add to that base clogging speed, a general lack of patience at the plate and below average on-base skills, and you are likely looking at a 1B/LF if he doesn’t make it at catcher—which would raise the bar considerably. A return trip to the SAL in 2010 appears to be in order. Expect completely different results this time around.


6) Domingo Santana, OF (2009 – Power 80; First Base Rate 59; Discipline 23; Speed 44)

The most incredible line of a rather incredible 2009 performance—Santana played the majority of his 2009 GCL as a 16yo! Along the way he posted an .896 OPS and the League’s #3 Performance Score. At 6’5”, 200 lbs, Santana is a physical beast. In the GCL, he demonstrated plus power, above average speed, and a plus arm that makes him a natural fit for RF. Additionally, he showed average on-base skills, and the patience to take a walk. The downside, outside of this was a rookie league performance, is that he has an aggressive approach at the plate that led to a 33% strikeout rate. The Phillies will be tempted to push Santana aggressively. We hope they resist the temptation and allow him to stay in extended Spring Training and then on to the NYP. He won’t turn 18yo until the second half of the 2010 season. Watch this one closely, as he could fly up the prospect lists in 2010.


7) Phillippe Aumont, RP (2009 – Dominance 70; Stamina 25; HRrate 48; Control 51)

Aumont was an extremely raw talent when the Mariners drafted him in the first round in 2007, so it came as somewhat of a surprise when they had already given up on the idea of him becoming a starter by the beginning of the 2009 season. Word is that the Phillies may be considering moving him back into the rotation. There is a ton of potential here, as the ceiling is that of a lights out closer or front of the rotation stud, but for us, there remain more questions than answers. At 6’7”, 220lbs, Aumont is physically imposing, using a downward plane to generate a mid-90s fastball. Additionally he has a hard sinker, and a Curve that shows potential. Currently a Change is basically non-existent. As a raw 21yo, you would think there is enough there to consider him as a front of the rotation starter. But elbow concerns, questionable mechanics, and struggles with command, call into doubt how far he will actually go. His AZFL performance did nothing but reinforce what we already knew. Look for Aumont to begin 2010 in the ESL. The difference between his floor and his ceiling are enormous.


Grade B


8) Antonio Bastardo, LHP (2009 – Dominance 79; Stamina 44; HRrate 49; Control 76)

Bastardo has had flashes of brilliance for five seasons now, but for the most part has been held back by his diminutive size and fragility concerns that have not allowed him to throw more than 98 innings in any season. With a low 90s fastball and an average change, both of which he commands well, Bastardo has the floor of a Major League left-handed set-up man. If he could develop a quality breaking pitch, he could become a starter. Expect the Phillies to give Bastardo a shot a bullpen spot this Spring. If he doesn’t earn it, he will likely end up in the AAA rotation, and spend time in Philadelphia at some point this year.


9) Brody Colvin, RHP –

We expected Colvin to go no worse than the second round last June, with the possibility of sneaking in toward the end of round one. So the Phillies got a bargain when they selected him in the 7th round and signed him for sandwich round money. While relatively raw, Colvin already throws a low-90s heater, and a Curve that may be an even better pitch. With a 6’4” frame that portends further projection, he could well end up with a mid-90s fastball. Other than his rawness, his weaknesses include the lack of a quality change, occasional bouts of control issues, and mechanics that will need some tweaking. While there is still much projection here, the ceiling looks high. Expect the Phillies to keep Colvin in extended Spring Training. His performance there will dictate his debut assignment.


10) Zach Collier, RF (2009 – Power 43; First Base Rate 29; Discipline 33; Speed 66)

Sometimes you have to admit when you got it wrong. While we are far from giving up on him, unfortunately for us that appears to be the case for Collier, who we saw as a mid-first round pick in the 2008 draft. With 560 professional at bats under his belt, Collier has yet to translate his considerable tools into measurable skills. Still just 19yo, and possessing an incredibly athletic build, there is still plenty of time for Collier to turn it around, but so far he has given us nary a glimpse of what he could become. His smooth swing, quick wrists, plus speed, and advanced hitting approach have yielded little, and the computer now shows an arrow pointing to a higher probability of bust than boon. While there is considerable ceiling here, Collier will need a breakout 2010 in the SAL to change that direction.


11) Jonathan Singleton, 1B (2009 – Power 74; First Base Rate 73; Discipline 73; Speed 34)

Coming into draft day, we had Singleton as a 5th round pick, who the Phillies were fortunate to nab in the seventh round. The only knock on him was that he had a long swing that made him susceptible to the better pitchers. Otherwise he would have rated much higher, as he is young for his level, shows plus power, solid on-base skills, solid pitch recognition, and is an excellent defensive first basemen—all skills that he demonstrated after signing in the GCL. His 2009 Performance score ranked #2 in the GCL. Singleton has a good shot at beginning 2010 in the SAL. While he is still a ways away, his upside is that of an above average, everyday, Major League firstbaseman.


12) Jarred Cosart, RHP (2009 – Dominance 77; Stamina 44; HRrate 50; Control 55)

The Phillies drafted Cosart in the 38th round of the 2008, then signed him away from Missouri by paying him late second round money. Already possessing a low-90s fastball, and a lean 6’3” frame, we can project Cosart to eventually throw a mid-90s heater. His Curve also has plus potential. The downside to Cosart is that he is essentially a two-pitch pitcher at this stage, and is relatively raw, physically as well as mentally. Possessing front of the rotation stuff, the Phillies will guide him carefully, likely sending him to the SAL to open 2010.


13) J.C. Ramirez, RHP (2009 – Dominance 38; Stamina 68; HRrate 47; Control 49)

After spending his first three seasons known to the baseball world as Juan Ramirez, he became J.C. this season, but it didn’t help his performance any, as he struggled to his most disappointing season as a professional, as the thin air and band box conditions at High Desert got the best of him. The Mariners sent him to the Phillies, this winter, as the third prospect in the Cliff Lee deal. Featuring a low-90s fastball with late life, and a slider that has the potential to become an above average pitch, the raw ‘stuff’ is there to yield better results. The most disappointing aspect of his 2009 season was watching his strikeout rate drop from 8.25 per 9IP coming in to the season to barely 7.0. Additionally, the now 22yo Ramirez has made little progress with his below average Change. 2010 will be a huge year for Ramirez, as he will likely be in AA. If he can’t improve his secondary offerings, his value will take a hit, as the bullpen will then likely become his destination.



Grade B-


14) Leandro Castro, CF (2009 – Power 76; First Base Rate 43; Discipline 63; Speed 71)

Coming into the 2009 season with ‘fringy’ prospect status, Castro doesn’t possess the upside of most of the names that are ahead of him on this list, but has an intriguing skill set that shouldn’t be overlooked. The, then 19yo, Castro began 2009 in the SAL where he was clearly overmatched. When the NYP opened in June, Castro was demoted. He proceeded to post the best performance of his career, finishing with the League’s #3 Performance Score. Castro has the power skills necessary to succeed at an OF corner, if he finds CF too crowded in the Phillies organization. He also possesses above average speed and decent strike zone management skills. On the downside, Castro isn’t very big, isn’t a plus speed guy, and has difficulty repeating a smooth swing—often appearing to be flailing at the ball. He will return to the SAL to begin 2010 and will be looking to end up with a dramatically different result.


15) Felix Cespedes, RHP (2009 – Dominance 77; Stamina 79; HRrate 50; Control 69)

Mr. Almost Perfect game, Cespedes gained notoriety this season by tossing a 9-inning, 14 strikeout, perfect game, but left with a scoreless tie, only to have his team lose the game in the 12th. At 6’3”, 180 lbs, there is good projection with Cespedes, and he finished the 2009 season with the #2 Performance Score in the DSL. Perhaps more impressive than his 103 K’s in 83 innings, was his limiting opposing batters to a .228 Average Against and only issuing 20 walks. Cespedes also throws a heavy fastball that produces a lot of ground ball outs. Look for Cespedes to make his stateside debut in the GCL in 2010.


16) Jiwan James, CF (2009 – Power 41; First Base Rate 60; Discipline 66; Speed 55)

It’s been an interesting ride for James, who spurned Florida and signed with the Phillies after being drafted in the 22nd round in 2007. Some regarded him more highly as a pitcher, but injuries had basically shelved him almost two years when he made his NYP debut. Another in the long list of athletic, ‘toolsy’, project OFs in the system, James may have as many tools as any of them—and that’s saying something. With plus speed, solid defensive skills, an advanced set of plate discipline skills, and solid contact skills, James is only missing power to be considered a true 5-tool athlete. While he held his own in the NYP after a long layoff, James will have to show more than that as a 21yo in the SAL in 2010 to get our attention. There is a lot of upside here, but at the moment there are also a lot of questions.


17) Freddy Galvis, SS (2009 – Power 29; First Base Rate 41; Discipline 65; Speed 49)

Galvis is the epitome of a glove only SS. Unfortunately his advanced glove has led to his aggressive assignments, which has hindered his offensive development. We aren’t talking about a good glove here, we are talking about one of the best in the Minor Leagues, as he combines silky soft hands, a strong accurate arm, and quick lateral movement into the complete package. On the otherside of the ball, however, only his strike zone management skills grade out as average. Galvis has played at 5 different levels in his brief professional career, and hasn’t posted an OPS higher than .610 at any of them. Galvis will play the 2010 season as a 19yo. Right now he is ticketed for AA, but we would love to see what would happen offensively if he were to repeat the FSL. His ceiling is a bottom of the order defensive SS, with a glove worthy of an everyday gig…unfortunately his bat may never allow that to happen.


18) Anthony Hewitt, 3B (2009 – Power 69; First Base Rate 23; Discipline 25; Speed 59)

When the Phillies selected Hewitt in the first round of the 2008 draft they understood he was a project…we are just not convinced they understood how big of a project he really is. A highly athletic, powerful, strong, intelligent player, with a solid work ethic, Hewitt has not yet found a way to translate the intangibles and tools into a productive skill set. Now with two professional seasons behind him, only his Power shows as a potentially plus skill. There is a tremendous ceiling here, but we have no evidence that he will ever come close to it.


19) Scott Mathieson, RP (2009 – Dominance 68; Stamina 27; HRrate 49; Control 54)

One of the year’s feel good stories, Mathieson came back after missing more than two years from elbow surgery. Then in 32 second half innings, between three stops, Mathieson posted a 0.64 ERA and fanned 34 batters. This fall in Arizona, he showed that he was well on his way to recovery, sporting a fastball that sat in the mid-90s. While there is never a strong certainty with a player of this injury history, Mathieson should continue to regain command during the 2010 season, and could become a valuable add to the Phillies bullpen in the second half of the season.



Grade C+ Prospects –

20) Vance Worley, RHP; 21) Jonathan Pettibone, RHP; 22) Drew Carpenter, RHP; 23) B.J. Rosenberg, RP; 24) Kelley Dugan, CF; 25) Nevri Jimenez, 3B; 26) Justin De Fratus, RP; 27) Colby Shreve, RHP; 28) Kyrell Hudson, OF; 29) Michael Stutes, RHP; 30) Yohan Flande, LHP; 31) Edgar Garcia, RHP; 32) Heitor Correa, RHP; 33) Steve Susdorf, LF.


Grade C Prospects –

Aaron Altherr; Rudney Balentien; Lisalverto Bonilla; Michael Cisco; Tyler Cloud; Sergio Escalona; Harold Garcia; Nick Hernandez; David Herndon; Austin Hyatt; Ely Izturriaga; Tim Kennelly; Ebelin Lugo; John Mayberry; D’Arby Myers; Drew Naylor; Julio Rodriguez; Julian Sampson; Joe Savery; Michael Schwimer; Jonathan Villar; Matt Way.



Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.


You can find an explanation of our grades here Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season. For additional information on our rankings methodology, see our recent Mailbag article here This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions.

TEAM #16 – New York Mets

Will 2010 be the year that Mejia puts it all together?

Coming in at #16 is the New York Mets. The Mets are a system that doesn’t get the credit that it likely deserves, as a philosophy of aggressively promoting their Latin American talent has often led to deceiving results. We actually like the top of the Mets system far better than most people do. Additionally, their second tier talent is also deeper than most realize. That being said, it is still a system dotted with low ceiling college players that put up deceiving results in the opposite direction. Perhaps no system in baseball is more puzzling in their seemingly contradictory approach to talent development. That being said, we are a huge fan of their Latin American program, and find the type of high ceiling players that one would desire.



Grade A

1) Jenry Mejia ,RHP (2009 Performance Scores – Dominance 64; Stamina 67; HRrate 50; Control 41)

Mejia opened up 2009 by thoroughly dominating FSL hitters—as a 19yo. This earned him a promotion to Binghamton, where he got caught up in overthrowing, and, while still flashing his ‘filthy’ mid-90s fastball, he walked nearly five batters per 9IP. The problem became even worse in the AZFL. Mejia will play the entire 2010 season as a 20yo. He has one of the best pure fastballs in the Minors, and a Change that has the potential to be a plus pitch. The downside is that he is extremely raw, and certainly is more thrower than pitcher at this point. Mejia does not currently have a Major League quality 3rd pitch, and his control can completely get away from him at times. Expect him to open up the season by returning to AA, where the Mets will have to demonstrate extreme patience with him as he has a tremendous upside. If he can harness his control and develop a third offering, his ceiling is that of a front of the rotation stud. Without a third pitch he still could become a lights out closer.


2) Fernando Martinez, RF (2009 – Power 77; First Base Rate 26; Discipline 54; Speed 40)

Coming off, what was considered by many to be, a down 2008, Martinez faced a series of nagging injuries in 2009, and eventually knee-surgery, that limited his playing time. Add to that a Big League debut that has to be classified as disappointing, and an even more disappointing Winter League stint, and you have a prospect in free fall. Let me toss Martinez a parachute, as played the entire season as a 20yo in AAA—posting the International League’s (INT) #4 Performance score. A victim of the Mets aggressiveness, more than opposing pitchers, Martinez continues to have a tremendous upside, with the ceiling of a power hitting everyday Major League RF. While the Mets may give him a chance to win a roster spot this spring, Martinez still has a Major area of improvement that would benefit from a return trip to AAA—namely he needs to learn become a more patient hitter, taking more walks. The other negative is that the speed that once allowed visions of him roaming CF has continued to diminish as he has matured, and, after knee surgery, he is on the verge of turning into a base clogger. We still like Martinez’s potential, but hope, much like Mejia, the Mets can be patient with him.


Grade A -

3) Wilmer Flores, SS/3B (2009 – Power 35; First Base Rate 52; Discipline 74; Speed 35)

The third straight Latin American prospect, and the third straight prospect with tremendous upside that is being pushed too fast, Flores had a disappointing 2009 season, posting a .637 OPS in the SAL—as a 17yo. With a 6’3”, 175lb, frame, Flores has significant projection left in him, as we expect him to hit for more power as he fills out, and likely move off of SS, probably to third base. Still he makes solid contact, sprays the ball with authority, and possesses good strike zone management skills. Like many Latin American players, he can be overly aggressive at the plate and will need to learn to take more walks. He will never be consider a base stealing threat, but, other than pure rawness, there are few weaknesses here. Our hope is that regime changes in the Mets organization will allow for Flores to return to the SAL for at least the first half of 2010, as if he does there is potential for a breakout campaign.



Grade B+

4) Ike Davis, 1B (2009 – Power 79; First Base Rate 59; Discipline 32; Speed 31)

After being drafted in the first round of 2008, Davis posted one of that summer’s most disappointing debuts. 2009, however, was a different story entirely, as Davis was solid in the FSL, before destroying ESL pitching to the tune of a .951 OPS, posting the #12 Performance score in the League. He continued his torrid pace this Fall in the AZFL. His quick wrists provide him with plus power, and at least average contact skills. Defensively he is sound at first base. The downside is that Davis can get into grooves where he pulls everything—making him vulnerable to tough breaking ball pitchers. With no real threat in front of him in the organization for the first base job, the certainty factor is relatively high. We see his ceiling to be that of a Major League average, everyday, firstbaseman. Look for Davis to begin 2010 in AAA, with a strong chance of seeing New York before the season ends.


5) Brad Holt, RHP (2009 – Dominance 69; Stamina 67; HRrate 46; Control 54)

We still are mixed, in our feelings about Holt. On the plus side, from the period of time that followed his first start of the 2009 season until he hurt his ankle, Holt was lights out in the FSL, earning the League’s #12 Performance score—and pitching even better than that. On the downside, Holt struggled after his return from the injury, and we aren’t sure whether it has to do with the mechanics caused by the injury time-off, or the challenge of facing more advanced hitters in AA. In either case, Holt possesses a low-90s fastball , complimenting it with a Curve that shows plus potential. His Change remains raw, and is likely the limiting factor to his development. His ceiling is that of a solid mid-rotation starter, but without a more effective change he may be looking at a late inning bullpen role. We hope that the Mets return him to AA to begin the season, and don’t expect to see him in New York before September.



Grade B

6) Ruben Tejada, SS (2009 – Power 35; First Base Rate 59; Discipline 75; Speed 80)

We like Tejada better than most, primarily because we think that he is a virtual shoo-in to be no worse than a solid middle infield reserve. Tejada’s glove is solid enough to play SS everyday. His speed is significant enough to allow him to steal 20+ bases per year. His plate discipline skills are remarkably advanced for a 19yo, and he has shown the potential for plus contact/on-base skills. Playing in the ESL last season, only Jesus Montero posted a better Performance Score. The only weakness is that he is unlikely to ever develop double digit home run power. At only 20yo for the 2010 season, Tejada will likely open up in AAA and see New York at some point during the season. While we believe that he has the upside of a Major League average everyday SS, it is far more likely that he has an Omar Infate-ish type of career.


7) Jon Niese, LHP (2009 – Dominance 60; Stamina 71; HRrate 48; Control 62)

With the ceiling of a mid- to late- rotation starter, the biggest question surrounding Niese is how he will respond to a horrific rupture of his hamstring in August. With a fastball that typically only sits in the high 80s, Niese’s bread and butter is his plus Curve and plus command. His Change is merely adequate. Niese uses his legs more than many pitchers, so the hamstring surgery is not a minor deal. If he proves healthy in the Spring, he could be in line to open the season in the Mets rotation. If not, look for him to spend time in AAA, until he proves ready. In either case, only the injury stands in the way of a spot for him in New York.


8) Josh Thole, C (2009 – Power 35; First Base Rate 75; Discipline 78; Speed 59)

In examining the Met organization, there appears to be predominantly two types of players: 1) High ceiling, aggressively pushed, Latin American players or low-ceiling American players. Thole is the first on the latter list. Thole has one of the best contact approaches in the system, and possesses excellent plate discipline skills. However, his contact-first approach generates little in the way of power, his speed is only adequate at best, and his catching defense is only adequate on good days. While there is a role for these type of players in the Majors, it is almost always in a reserve capacity. While he will be given a chance to earn the back-up spot in New York this Spring, expect Thole to open the season in AAA. He will have to make his way at Catcher, as he doesn’t have enough offense to profile at any other place that he can defensively play.


9) Jefry Marte, 3B (2009 – Power 45; First Base Rate 32; Discipline 47; Speed 38)

We are allowing Marte somewhat of a mulligan for 2009, as there is no way that the barely 18yo should have opened the season in the SAL, and he was coming off of the Top Offensive Performance in the GCL the previous year. The good news is that he posted a nearly 100 point OPS gain in the second half of the 2009 season, and finished the year with a Top 25 Performance score in the SAL. Marte has tremendous upside, as there is significant projectability left in him, projectable, at least, average Big League power, and, while still tremendously raw, a defensive skill set that could allow him to stay at thirdbase. While he did strike out in more than 22% of his plate appearances in 2009, we feel this was more from pressing than strike zone recognition, as this hadn’t been a problem in the GCL. One of his greatest strengths is an extremely advanced (maturity) approach to the game. The downside is that none of this translated into positive production in 2009. Look for the Mets to return Marte to the SAL to start the season, where he will play the first half as still an 18yo. We wouldn’t be surprised to see all the skills click this season, and see a big bounceback year.


10) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF (2009 – Power 76; First Base Rate 45; Discipline 41; Speed 73)

While Nieuwenhuis still has his detractors, and doesn’t have a tremendously high-ceiling, he did make some believers with his 2009 performance, earning the #14 Performance score in the FSL. Showing the potential for plus power and above average speed, Niewenhuis played a solid CF for St. Lucie, and likely profiles as an above average defender in RF. His negatives include merely adequate contact skills, and below average strike zone management skills. There is enough here to believe that he could potentially become an average Big League outfielder, though the likelihood is that he is best suited as 4th OF type with value, capable of plus defense at all three positions. Nieuwenhuis will open 2010 in AA, with a likely shot at a roster spot in New York in 2011.


11) Jeurys Familia, RHP (2009 – Dominance 43; Stamina 73; HRrate 49; Control 48)

Only 19yo, Familia played the entire 2009 season in the SAL, where he posted the #13 Performance Score in the League. The most impressive part of his 2009 season was the in-season evolution, as he fanned 6.5 batters per 9IP and posted a 3.08 in the first-half, while fanning 8.4 batters per 9IP and posting a 2.17 ERA over the second half, mainly due to improvements in his secondary offerings. The downside is that Familia is still extremely raw, with currently only two Major League caliber offerings. Additionally, he fights occasional bouts of poor command. Familia has significant upside. He will start the 2010 season at Hi-A as a 20yo. It will be the development of his Change that dictates whether he can stay in the rotation, or becomes a late-inning bullpen guy.


12) Juan Urbina, LHP -

Widely regarded as the best International pitcher available, except some guy named Chapman, the Mets signed the 16yo to a $1.2MM bonus. Urbina already throws a 90MPH fastball, and a change that projects to be at least Major League average. He commands both pitches well, and has an extremely advanced feel for pitching, for a player so young. The downside is that he still struggles with his secondary offerings, and will need an improved Slider to experience significant success. The success rate for high profile 16yo Latin American pitchers isn’t great, but Urbina has all the makings of a good one. Expect for the Mets to have him make his U.S. debut in the GCL later this summer.



Grade B-

13) Reese Havens, 2B (2009 – Power 75; First Base Rate 58; Discipline 55; Speed 39)

Admittedly, we have not been as high on Havens, as have others, ever since the Mets took him in the first round of the 2008 draft. It’s not that he is without skills, just that we never saw him as a capable SS, and that makes his upside rather limited as a secondbasemen. We would have liked him as a solid pick if the Mets had gotten him a round later. A string of nagging injuries have limited him to 440 At Bats over his first two seasons, so there are plenty of unanswered questions, but for now, we know that as a 22yo in Hi-A he was only able to manage a .247/.361/.422 and he fanned in 18% of his PAs, without showing any real speed, or defensive prowess. The most encouraging aspect to his game is that he has a patient batting approach that should allow him to consistently reach base. In fact, we are somewhat surprised that he hasn’t batted more than .247 over his first two seasons. While he has good power for 2B, if he proves unable to stick there defensively, his bat becomes average, at best, as a corner OF. Look for him to open 2010 at AA, with a potential September call-up, if things go well.


14) Stephen Matz, LHP -

The Mets were able to draft Matz, in the second round this past June, right where we expected him to go. Matz possesses a low-90s fastball, with an average Change. While both his Curve and Slider are currently below average pitches, they show some promise. At 6’3”, 185lbs, there is still significant projection here. Relatively raw, Matz does have some mechanics issues with his delivery. Expect the Mets to keep him back in extended Spring Training to start the season, before deciding on his initial assignment—likley in a short-season league.


15) Ryota Igarashi, RP –

There is not a lot of upside in a 30yo right-handed reliever, who wasn’t even a closer in Japan, but the Mets signed him to a two year, $3 MM, contract in an effort to bolster their bullpen. With a fastball that can get into the mid-90s, and a quality splitter, the Mets expect Igarashi to make significant contributions, beginning this year. So, while the ceiling isn’t very high, the certainty factor is extremely high. This appears to be the appropriate place for a couple of years of solid Major League middle relief/set-up value.


16) Cesar Puello, OF (2009 – Power 55; First Base Rate 51; Discipline 42; Speed 75)

Without any single skill that grades as exceptional, it is easy to overlook Puello. However, he has at least average skills across the board, with Speed being his best skill. Only 18yo in 2009, Puello posted the #8 score in the APY. While Puello is capable of playing all three defensive OF positions, he is likely most valuable in RF. His greatest weakness is strike zone management, as he fanned in over 24% of his PAs. Puello doesn’t possess the upside of some of the other Latin American talent that has appeared on this list, but his floor could very well be that of a 4th OF type. Look for Puello to get his first taste of full-season ball in 2010, where he will take on the SAL as barely a 19yo.


17) Kyle Allen, RHP (2009 – Dominance 48; Stamina 68; HRrate 48; Control 38)

The Mets are higher on Allen, who held his own as a 19yo in the SAL in 2009, than we are. Allen possesses as low-90s fastball that he compliments with an average Slider and average Change. Another plus in his favor is his extremely high ability to pitch down and induce ground balls. We weren’t nearly as enamored with his 8Ks per 9IP, as his K/BFP rate ranked only 49th among SAL starters. More disconcerting was his occasional Command issues, as he walked 3.7 batters per 9IP, which ranked 40th among SAL starters. While Allen has solid skills, his upside isn’t as high as other pitchers in the organization. Expect him to begin 2010 in Hi-A.


18) Richard Lucas, 3B (2009 – Power 79; First Base Rate 76; Discipline 60; Speed 33)

The Mets selected Lucas with their 4th round pick in the 2007 draft. They were high enough on him to start the 2008 season as an 19yo in the SAL, but his stock tumbled after a disappointing 2008 season. In 2009, the Mets hit the ‘reset’ button on his development process, having him begin in the GCL, moving to the APY, before finishing with a brief appearance in the NYP. The results were considerably different this time around as he posted a .948 OPS between the three stops, finishing with the #7 Performance score in the APY. While not a huge ceiling type, Lucas does show above average power potential and contact skills, with average plate discipline. More importantly he is a capable defensive player at third base. Lucas will make a return visit to the SAL in 2010, and we expect completely different results this time around.


19) Robbie Shields, SS (2009 – Power 36; First Base Rate 34; Discipline 55; Speed 43)

We had Shields as a 5th round pick entering the draft, and admit to being a bit surprised when the Mets tabbed him in the 3rd round, after a disappointing junior year. While he played SS at Florida Southern, he profiled as an offensive second baseman in professional ball. More disconcerting for us was his abysmal NYP debut. None of Shields skills grade out as exceptional. While his most optimistic upside is that of a below average Major League secondbaseman, our feeling is that what he ultimately becomes will be far short of this. Look for Shields to open up 2010 in the SAL.


20) Scott Moviel, RP (2009 – Dominance 37; Stamina 68; HRrate 50; Control 48)

One of the taller prospects in the Minors, Moviel saw his 2009 season cut short by a knee injury. While the Mets thought enough of Moviel to make him their second round selection in 2007, it is a pick that has always puzzled us, as he doesn’t have a tremendous ceiling (how many 6’11” players can you say that about), with his fastball barely a low-90s offering, his curveball and change merely adequate pitches and he has occasional bouts with his command. But after spending his first three seasons as a starter, the Mets appear ready to move Moviel to the bullpen, where we have higher hopes for his success. As a reliever, Moviel will have to miss more bats and tighten up his control. Look for that journey to begin in AA in 2010.



Grade C+ Prospects –

21) Zach Lutz, 3B; 22) Francisco Pena, C; 23) Robert Carson, LHP; 24) Brant Rustich, RP; 25) Alexander Sanchez, 1B; 26) Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B; 27) Dillon Gee, RHP; 28) Nick Santomauro, OF; 29) Eric Niesen, LHP; 30) Darrell Cecilliani, CF; 31) Stefan Welch, 1B; 32) Zach Dotson, LHP; 33) Jordany Valdespin, 2B; 34) Alonzo Harris, 2B; 35) Gilbert Gomez, OF; 36) Eddie Kunz, RP;



Grade C Prospects –

Eduardo Aldama; Yohan Almonte; Michael Antonini; Eric Beaulac; Sean Bowman; Angel Calero; Nicholas Carr; Yucarybert De La Cruz; Dock Doyle; Lucas Duda; Clint Everts; Darwin Frias; James Fuller; Carlos Guzman; Brahlam Maldonado; Collin McHugh; Roy Merritt; Dylan Owen; Andres Perez; Sean Ratliff; Armando Rodriguez; Javier Rodrigurez; Josh Satin; Josh Stinson; Tobi Stoner; Jhonathan Torres; Zach Von Tersch; Neifi Zapata;




Feel free to post any questions and or comments. We will try to answer them in our weekly Mailbag segment.


You can find an explanation of our grades here Diamond Futures Annual Prospect Rankings Series and an explanation of our 2009 Performance Scores here Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation. The Performance scores represent the player’s performance relative to the leagues that they played in during the 2009 season. For additional information on our rankings methodology, see our recent Mailbag article here This Week's Mailbag - Prospect Rankings Questions.