2010 Diamond Futures' Top 300 Prospects (#200 - #151)

The Phillies will try Aumont back in the rotation in 2010

We are now half-way through the Top 300 list. Why 300? Our research has shown that few significant Major League players, were never considered among the Top 300 prospects in baseball (you’ll get more on this when we publish our Prospect Value study in a couple of week), and we would rather not miss anyone. So over the course of the next week or so, you can find out who we consider this year’s Top 300 prospects, as we count them down all the way to #1.

Of course if you want the Top 500, or just can’t wait until we count them all the way down, you can always order the Prospect eGuide, and get your copy of the complete list (plus much more) delivered to your in-box the same day. You’ll find complete details here: http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/02/2010-diamond-futures-prospect-eguide-is.html.



2010 Top 300 Prospects

200) Carrasco, Carlos , CLE - R
199) Lin, Che-Hsuan , BOS - CF
198) Forsythe, Logan , SDP - 3B
197) Galvez, Jonathan , SDP - 2B
196) Cardenas, Adrian , OAK - 2B
195) Morban, Julio , SEA - CF
194) Noonan, Nick , SFG - 2B
193) Sizemore, Scott , DET - 2B
192) Runzler, Dan , SFG - RP
191) Oliver, Andrew , DET - L
190) Lamb, John , KCR - L
189) Vinicio, Jose , BOS - SS
188) Rosario, Wilin , COL - C
187) Bourjos, Peter , LAA - CF
186) Flowers, Tyler , CHA - C
185) Brothers, Rex , COL - L
184) Morel, Brent , CHA - 3B
183) Gamel, Mat , MIL - 3B
182) Bowden, Michael , BOS - R
181) Ross, Robert , TEX - L
180) Torres, Alex , TBR - L
179) Davidson, Matt , ARZ - 3B
178) Fuentes, Reymond , BOS - CF
177) Joseph, Tommy , SFG - C
176) d'Arnaud, Chase , PIT - SS
175) Moore, Adam , SEA - C
174) Snyder, Brandon , BAL - 1B
173) Holt, Bradley, NYM - R
172) Stewart, Zachary , TOR - R
171) Heathcott, Slade , NYY - OF
170) Aumont, Phillippe , PHI - RP
169) Hobgood, Matt , BAL - R
168) Jenkins, Chad , TOR - R
167) Grichuk, Randal , LAA - LF
166) Hagadone, Nick , CLE - L
165) Santana, Domingo , PHI - RF
164) De Leon, Kelvin , NYY - RF
163) Pollock, A.J. , ARZ - CF
162) Knapp, Jason , CLE - R
161) Kieschnick, Roger , SFG - RF
160) Valle, Sebastian , PHI - C
159) Sanchez, Gary , NYY - C
158) Davis, Ike , NYM - 1B
157) Heisey, Chris , CIN - CF
156) Ramirez, Max , TEX - C
155) Sweeney, Matthew , TBR - 3B
154) Bailey, Luke , TBR - C
153) Erbe, Brandon , BAL - R
152) Sanchez, Gaby, FLA - 1B
151) May, Trevor , PHI - R

Pre-Season 2010 Amateur Draft Fabulous Fifty

Jameson Taillon leads an extremely talented group of prep pitchers

With the Amateur Draft less than four months away, and baseball season swinging into high-gear in high schools and colleges around the country, it’s time for our first 2010 view of what we can expect in June. With that, we present our regular feature, the Diamond Futures’ Amateur Draft Fabulous Fifty. These are the fifty players that we currently feel represent the best that the 2010 draft class has to offer. We will be updating this list every couple of weeks through March and then on a weekly basis up until draft time. While we don’t rank them from #1 - #50, we do list them in order, within their respective positions. The draft itself appears to be extremely thin on college position players, and there are prep left-handers on this list.

High School Catchers

Stefan Sabol (Aliso Viejo, CA) - Sabol is an athletic player with a high baseball IQ. He possesses line drive power and solid contact skills. Defensively he is raw behind the plate, but shows promise.

College Catchers

Bryce Harper (CC of Southern Nevada) – Much has already been written on Harper, who figures to go #1 overall. Offensively he is the best prep hitter in the last few years and may possesses more raw power than any prep player in even longer than that. Defensively he has a cannon for an arm and solid backstop instincts. If that hasn’t piqued your attention, his 17yo age and 6’3”, 195-lb, promise even further upside projection.

Micah Gibbs (Louisiana State) - While Gibbs doesn’t possess a significant upside, he is a switch-hitting catcher that scores high with his defensive and game management skills, and possesses a tremendous ‘make-up’.

High School Corner Infielders

Nick Castellanos (Davie, FL) – Castellanos has added 30lbs over the last two years and is now a potential offensive beast at 6’4”, 210lbs. Plus power is his best skill, but he will struggle with contact at times. Defensively he has the hands and arm strength to stick at 3B, but his footwork could use polish.

Kris Bryant (Las Vegas, NV) – Has played the last couple of seasons in the shadow of Harper in the Las Vegas area, but is a potent offensive force in his own right, as he possesses an athletic, projectable, 6’5”, 205lb frame. Power is his predominant offensive skill, as he isn’t exceptionally speedy. Defensively, he possesses a solid arm and soft hands. He is likely to add strength and bulk as he matures, which may force a move to an OF corner or 1B.

College Corner Infielders

Zack Cox (Arkansas) – Cox had a breakout summer on the Cape, where he may have put to rest some lingering concerns about his ability to hit with wood bats. Cox looks likely to remain at 3B, and post above average offensive numbers.

High School Middle Infielders

Manny Machado (Hialeah, FL) – Machado is a fast rising prep shortstop that possesses a combination that has been rare in recent drafts…namely plus shortstop defensive skills combined with above average offensive potential.

Yordy Cabrera (Lakeland, FL) – Cabrera has often times appeared to be a man among boys at his showcase appearances, as he has the type of chiseled-frame you don’t expect from a prep player. At 6’4”, 200lbs, he possesses plus raw power potential, but can be over-aggressive at times. Defensively he has soft hands and a powerful arm. The only real knocks against Cabrera are the fact that he is already 19yo, and that he is unlikely to stay at SS.

Justin O’Conner (Muncie, IN) – O’Conner is a baseball player, pure and simple, as he possesses plus offensive skills to go along with soft-hands, exceptional defensive instincts and a powerful arm. Don’t underestimate his hard-nosed approach or tremendous baseball IQ.

Tony Wolters (Vista, CA) – Smallish shortstop prospect who shows plus defensive skills at the position, and enough bat to succeed. More of a contact hitter than power guy, he uses solid baseball instincts to enhance his speed on the bases.

College Middle Infielders

Christian Colon (Cal State Fullerton) – One of the top returning college position players, Colon makes up for what he may lack in raw tools with a gritty, intelligent, approach. Colon should become a solid Major League shortstop.

Ricky Hague (Rice) – A solid summer with Team USA, vaulted Hague to prominence. Offensively he can be a force, but he does struggle with contact at times. Defensively he possesses enough skills to stay at shortstop at the next level.

Jedd Gyorko (West Virginia) - A tremendous contact hitter, Gyorko put together one of the more impressive summers on the cape. Defensively he is likely to move to 2B, but his offense should play well there.

High School Outfielders

Josh Sale (Seattle, WA) – For our money, Sale possesses the most potent offensive game among the prep players in this class. Sale is an aggressive hitter, with solid fundamentals that allows him to make solid contact with plus power potential. Defensively, Sale uses tremendous athleticism and solid instincts to make him a playable corner OF. If there is a downside, it is that he may profile better in LF than RF.

Austin Wilson (North Hollywood, CA) - Wilson possesses a tremendously athletic build, and perhaps the best combination of tools and performance among the prep players in this class. He also possesses a huge offensive upside, and defensively capable of becoming a gold glove RF. More impressive is that he is a ‘character’ guy, with a high baseball IQ.

Chavez Clarke (Marietta, GA) – Clarke is a fast rising CF prospect that possesses tremendous defensive skills, plus speed and at least average offensive skills. Additional pluses include a solid ability from both sides of the plate and tremendous ‘make-up’.

Brian Ragira (Austin, TX) – Ragira had mixed reviews this summer, as in some events he was one of the top players at the event, and in others he seemingly disappeared. Ragira possesses a significant tool set, that hasn’t always translated into performance. None-the-less, he has among the highest ceilings in this class, and is extremely bright and if he turns some of those tools into performance he could become a mid-first round selection.

College Outfielders

LeVon Washington (Chipola JC, FL) – Washington was a first round pick by the Rays last summer, but felt he could improve his draft stock by demonstrating that he has recovered from a torn labrum. An extremely ‘toolsy’ player, with a significant upside, Washington’s performance will dictate how high he goes.

Bryce Brentz (Middle Tennessee) – Brentz is the owner of what is presently the most potent bat in the draft. He possesses plus power potential and above average contact skills. While the plan is for him to play CF this season, there is concern that he is really a corner and that he may profile better in LF than RF. Additionally he has gotten a knock for a poor work-ethic/attitude and plays at a mid-tier baseball school. We say watch his on-field performance carefully this year, because this bat is special.

Jarrett Parker (Virginia) – Toolsy, athletic CF, who has a ton of upside, but whiffs too much for our liking at the moment.

Todd Cunningham (Jacksonville State) – A pre-season all-american, despite playing at a mid-tier school, Cunningham is a switch-hitting outfielder that possesses some of the best contact skills at the collegiate level.

Michael Choice (Texas Arlington) – Choice posted a solid summer with Team USA, and enters the season with a career average just short of .400. A highly athletic player, Choice has the speed to play CF and the arm to play RF. He’d get more notoriety if not for the school where he plays.

Gary Brown (Cal State Fullerton) – Brown is a speedy, athletic outfielder, that makes inconsistent contact. He is the classic top of the order threat and Brown keys the Titan attack.

Leon Landry (Louisiana State) - Landry is an athletic outfielder with plus speed and outstanding defensive skills. Unfortunately, his offense hasn’t quite caught up yet and what Landry does with the bat in 2010 will likely determine how high he goes.

High School Right-Handed Pitchers

Jameson Taillon (Woodlands, TX) – Taillon is the best prep arm in this year’s draft, and compares favorably with any prep pitcher drafted in 2009. With a 6’7”, 230lb frame, Taillon is a horse that fires up mid-90s fastballs and plus curves. While his change hasn’t received much work as he hasn’t needed it, it too shows promise.

A.J. Cole (Winter Springs, FL) – More projection than actual performance at this stage, the 6’5”, 190lb Cole has as high an upside as any prep pitcher in the class. His fastball is a low- to mid-90s offering, and his curve is also a potential plus pitch. Additionally, while not a tremendously polished pitcher, he demonstrates significant pithcability.

Karsten Whitson (Chipley, FL) – Son of a former Major League pitcher, Whitson has actually, at times, out-pitched the two pitchers above him on this list. Whitson is an athletic pitcher, with a low-90s fastball and a potentially plus slider.

Dylan Covey (Pasadena, CA) – Covey doesn’t possess as much projection as some of the other prep pitchers, but he already possesses a low-90s fastball, a potentially plus curve and a developing change.

Stetson Allie (Olmstead Falls, OH) – A physical beast at 6’4”, 225lbs, Allie has had difficulties finding consistency. When he is on, he possesses a mid-90s fastball and a potentially devastating slider. But he often has difficulty locating the plate. We feel he profiles better as a back of the bullpen guy, and if his command doesn’t evolve, don’t rule out 3B.

Kevin Gausman (Aurora, CO) – At 6’4”, 180lbs, Gausman shows significant remaining projection, despite the fact that he is already one of the more polished prep pitchers. Gausman possesses a low-90s fastball that he does exceptionally well at keeping it down in the zone, and advanced breaking offerings.

Kaleb Cowart (Adel, GA) – Cowart is an exceptional athlete, that is a potential early round pick as a middle infielder. Cowart uses a low-90s fastball and a significant baseball IQ.

Deandre Smelter (Macon, GA) – Smelter is a highly-athletic, highly-projectable hurler, that is relatively raw. While he possesses a potentially plus slider, he almost exclusively uses his low-90s fastball.

Peter Tago (Laguna Nigel, CA) – A smallish 6’1”, 160lbs, Tago is a raw right-hander that features a low-90s fastball and a potentially plus curve.

Taijuan Walker (Yucaipa, CA) – Walker is a fast climbing, athletic, right-hander that features a low-90s fastball and a potentially plus curve. Walker possesses significant remaining projection.

Cameron Bedrosian ( Senoia, GA) – Bedrosian is an extremely polished pitcher with a low-90s fastball, quality secondary offerings and an advanced feel for pitching.

A.J. Vanegas ( Alameda, CA) – Vanegas is an extremely polished pitcher with and advanced four-pitch repertoire that features a 90-mph fastball.

College Right-Handed Pitchers

Anthony Ranaudo (Lousiana State) – We felt Ranaudo was the second best collegiate pitcher in 2009, and only expect him to be better this season. Ranaudo has the entire package, with intimidating size, a mid-90s fastball, and a wipeout curve. The Friday night starter for the Tigers, Ranaudo will shoulder a heavy load for the extremely talented LSU team in 2010.

Deck McGuire (Georgia Tech) – 19-3 over his last two season, McGuire has good size and outstanding command of a four-pitch repertoire that features a low-90s fastball.

Brandon Workman (Texas) – Another college righty with good-size, Workman was arguably the longhorns best pitcher last season, despite not being part of their weekend rotation. His low-90s fastball headlines a solid four-pitch repertoire.

Jess Hahn (Virginia Tech) – Hahn remains more projection than production at this point, as he is one of the few college pitchers that consistently sits in the mid-90s. Hahn has a solid curve to compliment the heater and now just needs to refine his often erratic command.

Alex Wimmers (Ohio State) – Wimmers still flies under the radar, despite being the best starter in the Big Ten in 2009. While Wimmers has a solid low-90s fastball, it is his devastating curve that is his best offering. Wimmers’ change also shows potential as a plus pitch.

Chad Bettis (Texas Tech) – Not a lot of projection here in the smallish Bettis, but he has a low-90s fastball and a potentially plus slider.

Justin Grimm (Georgia) – Grimm still has projection left on his low-90s fastball that he compliments with a downward-breaking curve. A prep elbow injury still concerns some scouts.

Kyle Blair (San Diego) – Blair followed up a solid sophomore season with an impressive performance this summer on the Cape. While he has a low-90s fastball, it is a wipeout slider that is his best pitch. Command is where he struggles though and he will need to improve it this year.

Brett Eibner (Arkansas) – Eibner is perhaps the best two-way player in the draft, but is likely to make a bigger impact on the mound. An alum of the same high school as prep standout Jameson Taillon, Eibner is a highly athletic pitcher will a low-90s fastball and promising curve.

Kevin Jacob (Georgia Tech) – No potential college reliever in the class features better raw stuff than the 6’6” Jacob. He can dial his fastball into the extreme upper 90s and compliments it with a devastating slider.

College Left-Handed Pitchers

Chris Sale (Florida Gulf Coast) – Sale stamped himself as one of the top pitching prospects with an impressive performance on the Cape last summer. With a low-90s fastball and one of college’s best changes, Sale has all the makings of a solid Major League mid-rotation starter.

Drew Pomeranz (Mississippi) – Pomeranz improved upon an inconsistent sophomore season by becoming the most dominant pitcher on Team USA this summer. With a low- to mid-90s fastball and a devastating curve, Pomeranz just needs to show improved command to secure his place in the first half of the first round.

James Paxton (Kentucky) – After an inconsistent junior year at Kentucky, Paxton was selected by the Blue Jays in the sandwich round but opted to return to Kentucky. Legal issues with the NCAA, having to do with the handling of all that, has thrown his 2010 season in jeopardy.

Bryan Morgado ( Tennessee) – Morgado was selected by the White Sox in the third round last June after an inconsistent sophomore season. He returns to make amends this season, featuring a low- to mid-90s fastball and promising secondary offerings.

2010 Diamond Futures' Top 300 Prospects (#250 - #201)

Caleb Gindl still can't get any respect from the scouting community

Here’s part two of our Top 300 list. Why 300? Our research has shown that few significant Major League players, were never considered among the Top 300 prospects in baseball (you’ll get more on this when we publish our Prospect Value study in a couple of week), and we would rather not miss anyone. So over the course of the next week or so, you can find out who we consider this year’s Top 300 prospects, as we count them down all the way to #1.

Of course if you want the Top 500, or just can’t wait until we count them all the way down, you can always order the Prospect eGuide, and get your copy of the complete list (plus much more) delivered to your in-box the same day. You’ll find complete details here: http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/02/2010-diamond-futures-prospect-eguide-is.html.



2010 Top 300 Prospects

250) Gutierrez, Danny , TEX - R
249) Kepler-Rozycki, Max , MIN - OF
248) Halman, Greg , SEA - CF
247) Gomez, Hector , COL - SS
246) Chavez, Johermyn , SEA - RF
245) Dwyer, Chris , KCR - L
244) Wheeler, Ryan , ARZ - 1B
243) Robinson, Trayvon , LAD - CF
242) Desme, Grant , - CF
241) Pimentel, Stolmy , BOS - R
240) Amarista, Alexia , LAA - 2B
239) Bastardo, Antonio , PHI - L
238) Arcia, Oswaldo , MIN - LF
237) Skaggs, Tyler , LAA - L
236) Salome, Angel , MIL - C
235) Gould, Garrett , LAD - R
234) Renfroe, David , BOS - R
233) Krauss, Marc , ARZ - LF
232) Sierra, Moises , TOR - RF
231) Lambo, Andrew , LAD - LF
230) Sanchez, Eduardo , STL - RP
229) Rivero, Carlos , CLE - SS
228) Tucker, Ryan , FLA - R
227) Liriano, Rymer , SDP - OF
226) Lough, David , KCR - OF
225) Kimbrel, Craig , ATL - RP
224) Lincoln, Brad , PIT - R
223) Thole, Josh , NYM - C
222) Niese, Jon , NYM - L
221) Tejada, Ruben , NYM - SS
220) Danks, Jordan , CHA - CF
219) Portillo, Adys , SDP - R
218) Weeks, Jemile , OAK - 2B
217) Murphy, J.R. , NYY - C
216) Lucroy, Jonathan , MIL - C
215) Barnese, Nick , TBR - R
214) Avila, Alex , DET - C
213) Giavotella, Johnny , KCR - 2B
212) Arencibia, J.P. , TOR - C
211) Young, Eric , COL - 2B
210) Moreland, Mitchell , TEX - RF
209) Wood, Travis , CIN - L
208) Pimentel, Guillermo , SEA - OF
207) Espinosa, Danny , WSN - SS
206) Parmelee, Chris , MIN - 1B
205) Heredia, Jairo, NYY - R
204) Strieby, Ryan , DET - 1B
203) Schlereth, Daniel , DET - RP
202) Martinez-Mesa, Fabio , LAA - R
201) Gindl, Caleb , MIL - RF

2010 Diamond Futures' Top 300 - (#300 - #251)

How quickly will McGee comeback?

One of my favorite times of the year is right about now, when you start to see the Top 100 Prospects lists coming out. At Diamond Futures, we do things a little differently. We release our Top 300—a list that we have been assembling every year since 1999. Why 300? Our research has shown that very few significant Major League players, were never considered among the Top 300 prospects in baseball (you’ll get more on this when we publish our Prospect Value study in a couple of week), and we would rather not miss anyone. So over the course of the next week or so, you can find out who we consider this year’s Top 300 prospects, as we count them down all the way to #1.

Of course if you want the Top 500, or just can’t wait until we count them all the way down, you can always order the Prospect eGuide, and get your copy of the complete list (plus much more) delivered to your in-box the same day. You’ll find complete details here:

http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/02/2010-diamond-futures-prospect-eguide-is.html.

TOP 300 Prospects

300) Spruill, Zeke , ATL - R
299) Guevara, Hector, TBR - SS
298) Ozuna, Marcell , FLA - RF
297) Cozart, Zack , CIN - SS
296) Urbina, Juan , NYM - L
295) Givens, Mychal , BAL - SS
294) Adrianza, Ehire , SFG - SS
293) Gonzalez, Miguel, CHA - C
292) Stock, Robert , STL - C
291) Malm, Jeff , TBR - 1B
290) Beavan, Blake , TEX - R
289) Familia, Jeurys , NYM - R
288) Smith, Will , LAA - L
287) Walker, Neil , PIT - 3B
286) Collier, Zachary , PHI - RF
285) Nieuwenhuis, Kirk, NYM - CF
284) Delgado, Dimaster, ATL - L
283) Webster, Allen , LAD - RP
282) Arenado, Nolan, COL - C
281) Rogers, Esmil, COL - R
280) Navarro, Yamaico, BOS - SS
279) Colvin, Brody, PHI - R
278) Perez, Alexander , CLE - R
277) Santeliz, Clevelan, CHA - R
276) Tolisano, John , TOR - 2B
275) Ramirez, Carlos , LAA - C
274) Rodriguez, Henry, OAK - RP
273) Odorizzi, Jacob, MIL - R
272) Heckathorn, Kyle, MIL - R
271) Craig, Allen, STL - LF
270) Watkins, Logan , CHN - 2B
269) Lynn, Lance, STL - R
268) Williams, Everett , SDP - CF
267) Braddock, Zach , MIL - RP
266) Arnett, Eric , MIL - R
265) Beltre, Engel , TEX - CF
264) Rodriguez, Yorman , CIN - CF
263) Marte, Jefry , NYM - 3B
262) Eovaldi, Nathan , LAD - R
261) Soto, Neftali , CIN - 3B
260) Perez, Eury , WSN - OF
259) Johnson, Cody , ATL - LF
258) Guerra, Deolis , MIN - R
257) Owens, Rudy , PIT - L
256) Milligan, Adam , ATL - LF
255) McGee, Jake , TBR - RP
254) Gomez, Jeanmar , CLE - R
253) Velazquez, Miguel , TEX - RF
252) Alvarez, Henderson , TOR - R
251) Von Rosenberg, Zach , PIT - R

This Week's Mailbag

Some great questions this week...



NickyP from the Bronx asks:

Just recently found your site and I really like how you go about things. Looking at the upcoming draft, it seems to be weak on hitters. Who is the best college hitter that will be available?

There are only three ‘sure’ first round college position players at this point in the year: Chris Colon, Zack Cox and Bryce Brentz. Because Colon plays a premium position (SS), he is likely to be the first of these three selected, but likely has the weakest bat of the three (we still like him a lot though). So that leaves it to the other two. You’ll get a variety of opinions on this, and I feel fairly confident that Cox will be selected ahead of Brentz, for three reasons: 1) He is more likely to stay at 3B than Brentz is to stay in CF; 2) He plays in a tougher conference that generates more publicity; and 3) There have been questions raised about Brentz’s work ethic/attitude. We actually rated Cox ahead of Brentz in the Prospect eGuide, but as we told everyone last June…from our perspective—speaking hitting skills only, Brentz is the best pure hitter.



Corblan from El Paso writes:

I have an upcoming fantasy draft of players that are mainly from the MLB draft last June. Strasburg and Ackley are an easy 1-2, and Chapman is likely to go #3. I have the #4 pick and don’t know who to take.

Not an easy question to answer, because every league not only has its own rules, but they have their own personalities as to what they value more (i.e. hitters vs. pitchers, youth vs. experience, etc). That said, I’ll try to give you my take on who I would consider. As far as college pitchers, I like the certainty of Gibson and Leake over the upside of Scheppers, but none of them would warrant that high of a pick—for me. I loved the prep pitchers in June’s draft, but the best one (Matzek) went to the Rockies, so that reduces his ‘fantasy’ value. We prefer Turner to Miller, but given the inherent risks of prep pitchers, it doesn’t seem like a good bet, to me, for the #4 pick. While the prep hitting class wasn’t tremendously strong, there are three that deserve consideration: Mike Trout, Bobby Borchering and Jiovanny Mier. While we think Mier is the best pure prep SS to be available in at least the last five years, his upside doesn’t likely warrant that high of a pick. We love Borchering’s bat, and if we were certain that he would stay at 3B, that might be a worthwhile selection—but we aren’t. Mike Trout was an absolute steal by the Angels in the #25 spot. He looks to be the type of player that would earn points in all fantasy categories, and has a tremendous ceiling. He was a late riser in the draft, and because he played his high school ball in the Northeast, a lot of teams didn’t get many looks at him. I am sure that if the draft were held again today, he would be a top 10 pick. I didn’t over look Tate…I just don’t believe his best skills translate as well to the fantasy game. Which brings me to the relatively weak class of college hitters. While college hitters have a good history of being solid selections in the draft, outside of the very upper echelon, they don’t typically produce high upsides. Ackley is the only one from this class with a tremendous ceiling. Tony Sanchez had a solid debut, and looks to be the primary backstop in Pittsburgh in relatively short order…but he is not likely to be anything more than solid Major League average. Brett Jackson also had a great debut, but he isn’t a sure bet to succeed with his over-aggressive plate approach. He’d be a consideration, but #4 seems a bit high. Jared Mitchell has the highest upside of the players not named Ackley, and has plus-plus speed, but he is a big risk. If you believe in his very raw bat, then you might consider him. For me, the best blend of certainty, upside, and premium position is Grant Green, who looks likely to remain at SS in the Oakland system, has above average offensive skills, and has a very high-floor. If I owned the #4 pick, the three players that I would be looking at, in order, are probably Grant Green, Mike Trout, and Jared Mitchell.


DVV asks:

I read your entire team series, and I really enjoyed it. What I don’t understand is why no love for my Orioles? Keith Law has them #6 and BA has them #9.

For those of you who purchased the Prospect eGuide, you’ll notice that when we ranked the teams, we actually listed their expected Total System Career Wins Above Replacement. That is how we rank the teams. We actually calculate an expected Career WAR for each prospect and total them up. The highest total gets the highest ranking—it’s actually quite simple. So the real question is why didn’t the Orioles score a higher expected WAR? It boils down to predominantly three things: 1) There system isn’t that deep, as we had a difficult time just coming up with fifty prospects that deserved to be ranked; 2) Because pitchers are a riskier bet than hitters, their expected career WAR tends to be lower. Five of the first six prospects in the Orioles’ system are pitchers; and 3) We don’t feel as ‘warm and fuzzy’ about their best position player prospect (Josh Bell) as do others. In fact, now that you mention it, I’d really like to see the objective rationale from the other sources as to why they ranked the Orioles so high.


Thanks for reading, and if you haven’t yet purchased the Prospect eGuide, please do so—it’s well worth the money. You can find all of the details here: http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/02/2010-diamond-futures-prospect-eguide-is.html.


Keep those questions coming!

Winter Wonders

Is this the year that Liriano's comeback is finally complete?

While we place a little more emphasis on Winter Baseball than we do Spring Training, it is still important to remember that, just like Tuesday Thoroughbred Racing, you’re never quite sure exactly why they’re running. Some players play Winter Baseball to work on new skills, some are there to get ABs or IPs that they missed due to injury, some play because it takes place near where they grew up, some play because they are trying to catch on with a team and prove they still can play a little and some even play to show they are ready to take the next step. The individual player’s motivation ranges from ‘begrudgingly’ to ‘possessed’, so it’s important to not read too much into the results. Just a quick look back on the 2007 AZFL season shows that some players put up big numbers as a springboard to better things (i.e. Evan Longoria and Travis Snider), while others put up big numbers that are likely never to be seen again (Sam Fuld and Eugenio Velez). Some players bomb and it’s an indication of trouble (Reid Brignac and Matt Antonelli), while others bomb only to have a breakout regular season. So we have to be careful when we interpret the results. As we head toward the beginning of Spring Training, I have compiled, what I believe to be, the 15 hitting and 10 pitching performances that were the most eye opening( in a positive sense) from this past Winter.

Here is a brief summary of the Winter Leagues for those that don’t pay close attention to them. The five Leagues are basically divided into two categories with the Venezuelan League (VWL), the Dominican (DWL) League, The Mexican (MXWL) League and the Puerto Rican (PRWL) League all forming the Winter Caribbean Series, where the Dominican team walked away with the crown. These leagues combined have the most diverse range of players and the average age ranges from about 27.5 in the Venezuelan League to nearly 30.0 in the Mexican League. Many of the players have MLB experience, with a handful of MLB regulars. The Arizona Fall League (AZFL), on the other hand, is almost exclusively made up of players with no, or at least minimal, Major League experience.


Most Significant Hitting Performances

1) Connor Jackson, 1B/OF, ARZ (DWL) – While this is primarily a piece on Minor League prospect performances, clearly the biggest position player story of the Winter was Jackson’s return from an illness that essentially cost him his entire 2009 campaign. Going down to the DWL, Jackson not only posted the best performance in the Dominican Republic, but it was also the best performance from any winter league, as he batted .425/.561/.589 in roughly 100 PAs. Not only is Jackson healthy, but he looks poised for a solid 2010.

2) Starlin Castro, SS, CHN (AZFL) - After some precocious showings in the FSL and SOL that announced his arrival on the premier prospect scene, Castro gave the Cubs pause about his 2010 assignment when he hit .376/.396/.475 in a little over 100 AZFL ABs. Castro doesn’t turn 20yo until the finally week of Spring Training, so we don’t expect for him to open the season in Chicago, but he isn’t far off, and could be there by this time next year.

3) Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL (VSL) – The Brewers had already cleared the path for Escobar to open the season in their everyday lineup, but they still had to be pleased to see Escobar win the VWL batting title with a .393/.440/.491 line. His glove has been Major League caliber for some time now, and anything that he produced with the bat was going to be a plus, but now it isn’t hard to envision him near the top of the order as opposed to the eight hole.

4) Jose Iglesias, SS, BOS (AZFL) – The Red Sox shocked the baseball world when they gave Iglesias, who was considered an all-glove/no-hit shortstop, an $8.0MM contract this past summer. But Theo Epstein and crew look to once again be the winners, as his glove was everything that was advertised, and his bat showed some legitimate contact possibilities with a .275/.324/.420 showing. Give the barely 20yo a solid season and one-half in the Minors, and he’ll be one of the best shortstop gloves in the Majors by mid-2011.

5) Juan Francisco, 3B, CIN (DSL) – Francisco has now put together back-to-back stellar years in the DSL, as he led the league in home runs (11), going .302/.352/.566. Maybe most impressive was his strike out rate that was slightly below 21%--almost a playable number. We still feel that Francisco is one of the game’s more underappreciated prospects, and it would come as no shock, to us, to see him patrolling left field in Cincinnati by mid-season. The power potential here is huge.

6) Josh Thole, C, NYM (VSL) – The Mets need a catcher, and while there are many that doubt that Thole can hold down the job on a regular basis, we don’t see a better option in the offing. To make his case, Thole hit .381/.470/.568 in more than 180 PAs. The idea is growing on us.

7) Fernando Martinez, RF, NYM (DSL) – We have been pleading patience for Martinez for some time now, as the detractors came out in full-force this past season. The kid is just 21yo and is six months younger than Dustin Ackley and two months younger than Brett Jackson. If either of them posted an .877 OPS in AAA this past season, we would be punching their ticket to Cooperstown. We don’t know if he answered more questions about his bat, or raised more questions about his heart, as he struggled during the DWL regular season, but when the Caribbean Series got started for real he hit .316/.316/.684 and was named the series MVP. Give him time, and he is going to be a good one.

8) Sebastian Valle, C, PHI (MXWL) – Valle got off to a slow 2009 season, but heated up later in the summer. A trend that continued as he got off to a sizzling start in the MXWL, hitting .281/.326/.556, with 11 home runs. With the trade of Travis d’Arnuad to Toronto, Valle becomes the top backstop prospect in the organization, and he if he improves his defense and stays at catcher, he could become one of the backstops in the Minors.

9) Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCR (AZFL) – It was a disappointing 2009 for Moustakas, who appears to be a victim of Royals’ player development, but he showed glimpses of a more promising 2010 when he posted in .848 OPS in the AZFL. He will be only 21yo for the 2010 season, and he’ll be opening it in AA, which means he remains on track as one of the Minor’s best hitting prospects.

10) Wilson Ramos, C, MIN (VSL) - We are still not sure what his upside is, but with thin catching corps in Minnesota, Ramos may get a chance to be Joe Mauer’s caddy when the season opens after going .332/.397/.582 in over 230 PAs—while showing strong defense.

11) Japhet Amador, 1B (MXWL) – Perhaps one of our biggest questions, and trust us we have searched to no avail to get an answer to this, is why no Major League team has signed the barely 23yo first baseman. He was the #1 pick in last summer’s Mexican League draft. He posted a standout season in the Mexican Summer League—eventually being named the League’s ROY. Now he posts the best offensive season by any player in the MXWL with a .270/.391/.530…Send answers if you have them.

12) Wilin Rosario, C, COL (AZFL) – Rosario posted a solid 2009 season in the CAL—for a 19yo, but it was nothing like the .304/.344/.571 he put up against players two to three years his senior down in Arizona. The Rockies could probably use a little more patience in his development path, but it would not surprise us to see a breakout 2010.

13) Gaby Sanchez,1B, FLA (DSL) – Sanchez is hearing the footsteps of Logan Morrison, but he looks poised to open up 2010 as the Marlins starting first baseman after posting a .786 OPS in the DSL. We still think that he may become trade bait by the second half of the year, but in either case it looks like his opportunity has arrived.

14) Alexi Amarista, 2B, LAA (VWL) – We hate to keep sounding like a broken record about Amarista, but he is a legitimate prospect despite his diminutive, 5’8”, size. In over 200 VWL PAs, Amarista posted a .339/.382/.510—with surprising pop.

15) Marwin Gonzalez, SS, CHN (VWL) - While the 20yo Gonzalez only posted a .596 OPS in the FSL this past season, he could be a sleeper prospect for the Cubs in 2010. The switch-hitting Gonzalez posted a .313/.361/.493 and earned a spot on Venezuela’s Championship Series roster.




Most Significant Pitching Performances

1) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WSN (AZFL) – No pitcher in AZFL history has ever made a more anticipated debut than did Strasburg, where he not only fanned 23 batters in 19IP, but his fastball hit triple digits, while sitting around 97MPH. His performance rivals Tommy Hanson’s of last season, as one of the best AZFL seasons by a pitcher in the last decade, and he certainly appears ready to go.

2) Francisco Liriano, LHP, MIN (DWL) – After struggling for two years to regain his past promise after 2007 Tommy John surgery, the 26yo appears to have taken a major step forward with his post season performance in the DWL. Liriano went 3-1 with a 0.46 ERA, throwing harder, possessing better command and relying on his breaking stuff more than at anytime since his surgery.

3) Aaron Crow, RHP, KCR (AZFL) – We expected more rust from Crow than we got, as he fanned twelve while walking only two in 15IP. While we think there were college pitchers with more upside available in the 2009 draft (besides Strasburg), he could be ready to join the Royals in 2010.

4) Tanner Scheppers, RHP, TEX (AZFL) – When he was on, he was lights out, but there were those two rough outings, as Scheppers sat at 96MPH for most of the fall. We don’t know if/when his arm will fall off, but the Rangers should get some good production out of him until it does.

5) Mike Leake, RHP, CIN (AZFL) – It was the year of the pitcher in the AZFL, as a number of high profile collegians chose the venue to make their debut. Leake posted a 1.37 ERA and a 15:3 K:BB ratio, while showing a low-90s fastball. Chapman will grab the headlines in Cincinnati, but Leake is the more sure bet.

6) Ivan Nova, RHP, NYY (DWL) – Nova checked in at #19 on our Yankees prospect list, but his 1.05 ERA in the DWL ranked third and his Performance Score was #1. The 23yo Nova could be in line for a breakout 2010.

7) Robbie Weinhardt, RP, LAA (AZFL) – Weinhardt put himself in position to find his way to Anaheim in 2010, with 29Ks in 19IP in the AZFL. His fastball sat in the mid-90s, and while he isn’t likely closer material, he could be a valuable bullpen arm.

8) Hector Rondon, RHP, CLE (VWL) – Rondon keeps plugging along without any real fanfare, as the 21yo gave away two to three years to most of his opponents in Venezuela and still went 2-0, with a 4.26 ERA. If the Indians are smart, they will find a way to get Rondon into their rotation before mid-season 2010.

9) Juan Oramas, LHP, Padres (MXWL) – As far as we know Oramas remains property of the Padres, but there still isn’t plans to have him pitch in the U.S. despite a solid Winter campaign that came on the heels of a stellar summer season. Only 19yo, Oramas isn’t a flamethrower, but has an advanced feel for pitching.

10) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, NYM (AZFL) – The 20yo Mejia got hit hard in Arizona, but he still managed to fan 16 in 14 IP, while throwing in the mid-90s. He remains extremely raw, but if he can harness his ‘stuff’, he could have a breakout 2010.

What's On Deck

Since September we have, in one fashion or another, been performing some type of work on our Organizational Prospect Review series. Whether it has been calculating and posting League Performance Scores, or identifying players with our comparative player system, or actually ranking and writing the team reports—we’ve been busy! But now that we know that the Texas Rangers have the strongest Minor League system in the game, the obvious question is ‘What’s next’?

So we decided to take this moment to give you a look at what you can expect over the next two weeks—before Spring Training get’s rolling.

While the Prospect eGuide is filled with content that you have already seen posted here, it has a number of things that we haven’t shared with you. Over the next couple of weeks we will be giving you a look at some of that contact (but not all…so buy the eGuide). The most significant thing that will be coming, is the countdown of the Top 300 prospects. This will start next week.

We also have a few odds and ends that we have been preparing over the last couple of weeks; namely our Pre-Season College Baseball Top 25 and our first 2010 look at the June Amateur Draft.

Toward the end of the month, we will be publishing our results on a study that we have been working on that fits right into the whole ‘prospect season’. This is a study of determining ‘what is the true value of highly ranked prospects vs. those that are ranked lower’. I promise that we will come up with a catchier name before then, but we think you’ll find the results enlightening.

By the time all of that is complete, Spring Training will be in high gear and we will begin our spring prospect reports. So sit back and enjoy the ride.