Arizona Fall League – Most Significant Performances

Ackley’s performance was of historic proportions

We have been running Performance Score numbers on the AZFL for six seasons now. While the sample sizes are barely of statistical significance, the level of competition is too good to be ignored. When you look back over the last six years at the top achievers, it is clear that even in small sample sizes like this, the cream tends to rise to the top. Therefore, we do find significance in what happens in Arizona in October and November and what follows are the players who told us the most this year.

Top 10 Positive Performances

1) Dustin Ackley, 2B, SEA –

Ignore the fact that he was named AZFL MVP. That award doesn’t begin to tell the story of Ackley’s AZFL performance. In the six years that we have been running Performance scores for this League, we have never witnessed anything like it. Ackley posted a 1.339 OPS this fall. Over the last six years, the 95th percentile OPS (minimum 90 PAs) is .880. Only three players previously have posted an OPS greater than 1.200 (Collin Curtis – 1.203 in 2009, Jason Donald-1.233 in 2008 and Michael McKenry- 1.216 in 2008). It would be unfair to not mention Tyler Flowers’ 1.433 OPS in 2008, as he fell a few PAs short of the 90 threshhold. Not only was Ackley’s more than .100 higher than the next highest, but he was nearly a year younger than any of those other players. One could argue that the pitching talent was a bit thin in the League this season. While it may be true that the AZFL did not boast the ‘names’ that it has in some of the past season—particularly 2009—the overall offense in the League this year was a bit below average of the last six, ranking 4th. So there doesn’t appear to be much offensive inflation involved. When we compare his age-adjusted Performance Score with the League over the last six seasons, Ackley is a clear #1.

Top 12 AZFL Hitting Performances 2005-2010

Name ( YEAR ) AGE - OBP / SLG
1 ) Dustin Ackley ( 2010 ) 22.6 - 0.581 / 0.758
2 ) Starlin Castro ( 2009 ) 19.6 - 0.396 / 0.475
3 ) Brandon Wood ( 2005 ) 20.6 - 0.375 / 0.711
4 ) Fernando Martinez ( 2006 ) 18.0 - 0.305 / 0.379
5 ) Lastings Milledge ( 2005 ) 20.5 - 0.402 / 0.574
6 ) Billy Butler ( 2005 ) 19.5 - 0.330 / 0.476
7 ) Eric Young ( 2008 ) 23.4 - 0.504 / 0.640
8 ) Logan Morrison ( 2008 ) 21.1 - 0.444 / 0.667
9 ) Travis Snider ( 2007 ) 19.7 - 0.404 / 0.541
10 ) Carlos Triunfel ( 2008 ) 18.6 - 0.339 / 0.394
11 ) Jose Tabata ( 2009 ) 21.2 - 0.448 / 0.517
12 ) Matt Kemp ( 2005 ) 21.1 - 0.414 / 0.606

So in a League that has seen the likes of Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Dan Uggla, Adam Lind, Evan Longoria, Travis Snider, Justin Smoak, Gordon Beckham, Matt Wieters, Starlin Castro, Matt Kemp, Billy Butler and Buster Posey pass through, Ackley’s 2010 AZFL Performance laps the field. But the most significant development of Ackley’s performance may not have come with the bat, as his glove work at second is moving the consensus opinion from ‘doubtful’ to ‘playable’. While Ackley’s offense is good enough to earn all-star reviews no matter where he plays, if he can stick at second base he will really be something special. We should find out soon enough, because Ackley has little left to prove in the Minors and should be up with the Mariners by June.

2) Bryce Harper, OF, WSN –

No AZFL appearance was more closely watched than the 2010 #1 overall pick’s. While the sample size was extremely small, roughly 40 PAs, Harper showed plenty. His arm was the best in the circuit and he looks like a plus corner defender. While he pressed at times offensively, he showed enough to label his power tool not only one of the best in the Minors, it is likely one of the best in baseball and he is barely 18yo. Few players have received the spotlight, at such a young age, as that which Harper has faced; and he looks poised to deliver on all of that promise. The Nationals will be in little hurry with him, but a debut in the Potomac with a possible MLB debut as soon as the second half of 2012—likely before his 20th birthday.

3) Derek Norris, C, WSN –

We expected Norris to struggle this season because of the recovery involved with the wrist injury. In that regard Norris didn’t disappoint. The Nationals sent him to the AZFL for some additional work and it looks like he used the time to shed some of the rust. His .667 SLG was second in the League to Ackley and he posted a plus .400 OBP to go along with it. While he is unlikely to be a gold glove backstop, his receiving skills are improving enough to make it likely that he is the Nationals long-term answer at the position. The only negative continues to be his propensity to strikeout as he still had 28% K-rate, following his regular season rate of 24%. He will struggle at the higher levels until he controls that.

4) Marc Rzepczynski, LHP, TOR –

Rzepczynski led the league in ERA and limited the league to an even more impressive .214 Average Against. Yes, at 25yo he was about three years older than his competition, but Rzepczynski has put together some interesting seasons for a few years now, and although no longer a prospect, he seems headed toward a serviceable Major League career at the back end of someone’s rotation. The upside here isn’t tremendous, but the floor looks pretty high and the Jays looked poised to give him a spot this Spring.

5) Charlie Culberson, 2B, SFG –

With Posey and Bumgarner no longer prospects, the Giants prospect list looks like it is going to be significantly changed this year and Culberson, along with Brando Belt, appear to be two of the biggest movers. Culberson’s development has been slow since the Giants made him a supplemental first round pick in 2007, but 2010 was a breakout year for him. Not only did he put together a fine CAL season, but he added a Top 10 AZFL Performance score, while leading the circuit in doubles. The classic baseball grinder, Culberson looks far more certain of an MLB career than he did at this point last year.


6) Manny Banuelos, RHP, NYY –

The youngest pitcher in the League by nearly 18 months, Banuelos continues to show an advanced feel for pitching and posesses a significant repertoire. Few pitchers in the Minors are as young as Banuelos and have established such a high floor. Banuelos earned the top pitching performance in the AZFL this year and looks like a solid bet to be a mid-rotation big league starter for years.


7) Cord Phelps, 2B/3B, CLE –

By mid-season, Jason Kipnis had established himself as the Indians’ future second basemen, but Phelps put up strong second half numbers and outperformed him in the AZFL, posting a 1.031 OPS. Phelps will never be a scout favorite as none of his skills are exceptional, but if the Indians overlook him in favor of Kipnis, they may be making a substantial mistake. His ‘grinder’ approach will make him a coaches favorite and he looks to have established a floor of a solid Big League utility man in the mold of a Tony Graffanino.


8) Josh Vitters, 3B, CHN –

Vitters still remains more enigma than prospect, as he has posted both outstanding and abysmal performances thus far in his professional career. As the third youngest player in the circuit to amass 90 PAs, Vitters posted a .705 OPS. While those numbers don’t jump out at you, they were good enough for a top five hitting Performance score. What is of more importance though is that he showed more patience at the plate than has been his trademark (13% strikeout rate vs. 19% on the regular season and a 8% walk rate vs. 6% during the regular season). That will be the key for Vitters as he progresses. His defense was playable and those that have begun to write him off are premature.

9) Eduardo Escobar, SS, CHA –

In a system with little to celebrate, as far as prospects go, Escobar’s AZFL performance turned enough heads to make him one of the top prospects in the organization. While he will have to shed the good glove/weak bat label, Escobar posted an .889 OPS as one of the League’s youngest players. This yielded the #6 Performance score and will put Escobar on everyone’s radar heading into 2011.

10) Scott Barnes, LHP, CLE –

The Giants felt, like many in the scouting community, that Barnes lacked the raw ‘stuff’ to make a difference at the Major League level and had no probably dealing him. Time will tell, but not only did Barnes post the League’s #2 Performance score, but his K/IP was the highest in the League for pitchers with more than 12 innings pitched. Those are significant numbers in this League and certainly indicative of more than the attention he has merited thus far.


Five Performances to Forget

1) Jared Mitchell, OF, CHA –

The consensus view on Mitchell heading into the 2009 draft was that he was extremely toolsy, oozing with athleticism, and, because he was a two-sport athlete in college, he was likely to have a lengthy development curve. The White Sox took him in the first round and had hoped to shorten that development curve with an assignment to AA. His spring training injury cost him the season, but the White Sox still were looking to push the envelope and sent him to the AZFL. Mitchell was clearly overmatched, more than just rusty, and now looks likely to begin the 2011 season in the Carolina League. Perhaps most concerning was his mere 2 SBs in 90 PAs. It is too early to be extremely down on him, but what we saw in the AZFL was tremendously significant.

2) Grant Green, SS, OAK –

After nearly 600 PAs in the CAL this year, we were surprised to find Green here, and maybe his lackluster performance was just a matter of fatigue. But that doesn’t change the fact that Green was not what was expected. He enters 2011 as a 23yo making his AA debut. While his CAL numbers were good, he was old for the League and it was the CAL. We have always been high on him, but, by any measure, Green has had a disappointing beginning to his professional career.

3) Brandon Wood, 3B, LAA –

Five years ago, Wood came to the AZFL as a 25yo and posted a 1.078 OPS as he was being anointed as a Top 10 prospect. Now 25yo, the best that Wood can muster is an .875 OPS. He should have owned this level of competition and clearly appears to be on the verge of earning the ‘bust’ label.

4) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, MIN –

The Twins remain tremendously more enamored with the former first round pick than do we. They expect Gutierrez to be a part of their bullpen sometime in 2011. We continue to see someone who lacks the out pitch to be successful in a MLB bullpen, a pitcher who hasn’t seen success above Hi-A and a pitcher whose most value would likely come as a end of the rotation starter or swing man. The sample size was small in the AZFL, but the results were consistent with his performance on the year—that being that he finds way too many bats.

5) Josh Fields, RP, SEA –

At 25yo, it is safe to say that the odds of Fields living up to his first round draft status are becoming extremely long. Control problems continue to plague Fields and he has yet to pitch above AA. We aren’t saying that he won’t see the Seattle pen at some point—perhaps even 2011, but we are saying that his MLB impact is likely to be minimal.

2010 Performance Evaluations – Draft Eligible D1-Hitters

Christian Colon earned his lofty draft position with a spectacular 2010 campaign

As we are working on our team prospect lists, here is a look back at the 2010 College Performance Scores for draft eligible hitters. We will post the rest of our 2010 college Performance scores over the next week or so. Then we will post our AZFL Performance scores before we begin our annual look at the team-by-team prospect lists—which should begin on or about the 23rd of November.

A couple of things to remember about our Performance evaluations: 1) these are not necessarily prospect lists. While it is fair to assume that the best prospects will put up the best performances, these lists focus only on a player’s offensive performance while they were in the league during the 2010 season. They do not consider things like defensive ability, offense vs. required offense for a given position, or projectability. Prospect evaluation is a combination of art and science and this is the science part of that equation. Later in the fall, we will breakdown each team’s ‘prospects’ and rank them in ‘prospect value’ order. 2) What it is, is a comparative statistical look at each players performance, placed in context of their age, their home park, and the league. We rate each player in the five categories that we have found most significant in predicting future Major League performance. The players that rate the highest, have assembled the best ‘Performance’ in these areas. For a more detailed look at the statistics involved you can refer to previous articles on the site (http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-it-yourself-quantitative-examination.html).

A quick note about the rankings…The TOTAL is the weighted numerical value of the combined statistics that we use. It is scaled for the level of play. Typically, a player with a positive score will rank in the top 1% - 2% of all Minor League players. After the total we list the sub-scores in 4 areas of significance. These scores are presented, for ease of understanding, in a typical 20-80 scouting format. They represent how the individual player performed in those areas in relation to the level of play in question. A score of 50 represents league average. Players listed as ‘DNQ’ did not qualify for the rankings because of their limited playing time, but we felt their scores were worth noting. If you have further questions on the methodology, feel free to email me at baseballnumbers@ix.netcom.com.



2010 Draft Eligible Division-I Top Hitting Performances


LastName , FirstName , College ( Org ) - Total … OnBaseRate … K Rate … wPOW … Speed
1 ) Colon , Christian , CS-Fullerton ( KCR ) - 1.38 … 65 … 78 … 77 … 63
2 ) Parker , Kyle , Clemson ( COL ) - 1.32 … 75 … 33 … 80 … 45
3 ) Grandal , Yasmani , Miami ( CIN ) - 1.25 … 78 … 62 … 80 … 28
4 ) Dietrich , Derek , Georgia Tech ( TBR ) - 1.18 … 64 … 63 … 78 … 55
5 ) Ray , Lance , Kentucky ( MIN ) - 1.14 … 46 … 55 … 80 … 34
6 ) Mummey , Trent , Auburn ( BAL ) - 1.13 … 25 … 72 … 80 … 73
7 ) Segedin , Rob , Tulane ( NYY ) - 1.12 … 76 … 75 … 80 … 53
8 ) Brown , Gary , CS-Fullerton ( SFG ) - 1.03 … 61 … 79 … 65 … 79
9 ) Duffy , Chris , Central Florida ( PHI ) - 0.96 … 79 … 56 … 80 … 39
10 ) Biserta , Pat , Rutgers ( STL ) - 0.95 … 69 … 80 … 80 … 57
11 ) Heath , Ben , Penn State ( HOU ) - 0.84 … 61 … 49 … 80 … 48
12 ) Choice , Michael , UT-Arlington ( OAK ) - 0.82 … 80 … 26 … 79 … 64
13 ) Holt , Tyler , Florida State ( CLE ) - 0.70 … 68 … 52 … 75 … 79
14 ) Landry , Leon , LSU ( LAD ) - 0.67 … 65 … 75 … 47 … 74
15 ) Roberts , Nate , High Point ( MIN ) - 0.65 … 80 … 56 … 78 … 79
16 ) Keyes , Kevin , Texas ( WSN ) - 0.61 … 57 … 50 … 79 … 73
17 ) Jurica , Carter , Kansas St ( SFG ) - 0.58 … 64 … 68 … 75 … 74
18 ) Schaus , Jeff , Clemson ( CLE ) - 0.51 … 54 … 76 … 72 … 71
19 ) Lemmerman , Jake , Duke ( LAD ) - 0.46 … 58 … 64 … 72 … 64
20 ) Brown , Shane , Central Florida ( NYY ) - 0.46 … 80 … 75 … 78 … 53
21 ) Polk , PJ , Tennessee ( DET ) - 0.37 … 72 … 64 … 70 … 78
22 ) Duren , Davis , Oklahoma State ( HOU ) - 0.35 … 65 … 76 … 53 … 79
23 ) Rutledge , Joshua , Alabama ( COL ) - 0.34 … 61 … 64 … 60 … 74
24 ) Wates , Austin , Virginia Tech ( HOU ) - 0.32 … 75 … 69 … 59 … 76
25 ) Cox , Zack , Arkansas ( STL ) - 0.32 … 73 … 63 … 49 … 74
26 ) Morris , Hunter , Auburn ( MIL ) - 0.31 … 44 … 53 … 79 … 55
27 ) Kvasnicka , Mike , Minnesota ( HOU ) - 0.27 … 77 … 71 … 76 … 29
28 ) Hinson , John , Clemson ( PHI ) - 0.25 … 58 … 50 … 76 … 78
29 ) Lohman , Devin , Long Beach State ( CIN ) - 0.22 … 79 … 57 … 54 … 39
30 ) Cusick , Jeff , UC-Irvine ( PHI ) - 0.22 … 76 … 79 … 71 … 25
31 ) Gibbs , Micah , LSU ( CHN ) - 0.21 … 75 … 70 … 63 … 59
32 ) Gosselin , Phil , Virginia ( ATL ) - 0.21 … 65 … 57 … 69 … 75
33 ) Wunderlich , Phil , Louisville ( TBR ) - 0.20 … 44 … 77 … 79 … 69
34 ) Eibner , Brett , Arkansas ( KCR ) - 0.19 … 39 … 30 … 79 … 53
35 ) Bisson , Chris , Kentucky ( SDP ) - 0.19 … 61 … 62 … 43 … 79
36 ) Senne , Aaron , Missouri ( FLA ) - 0.18 … 67 … 69 … 79 … 29
37 ) Pineda , Ryan , CS-Northridge ( OAK ) - 0.15 … 32 … 41 … 76 … 79
38 ) Brantly , Rob , UC-Riverside ( DET ) - 0.09 … 57 … 73 … 60 … 24
39 ) Canha , Mark , California ( FLA ) - 0.09 … 69 … 49 … 69 … 64
40 ) Westlake , Aaron , Vanderbilt ( TOR ) - 0.09 … 53 … 54 … 74 … 68
41 ) Zebroski , Tom , George Washington ( KCR ) - 0.08 … 72 … 76 … 79 … 69
42 ) Plagman , Tony , Georgia Tech ( DET ) - 0.05 … 55 … 45 … 80 … 69
43 ) Powers , Connor , Mississippi State ( SDP ) - 0.03 … 68 … 55 … 79 … 51
44 ) Brooks , Steven , Wake Forest ( CHN ) - 0.02 … 64 … 57 … 60 … 78
45 ) Stanley , Cody , UNC-Wilmington ( STL ) - 0.00 … 71 … 73 … 74 … 73
46 ) Nichols , Thomas , Georgia Tech ( LAA ) - (0.01) … 79 … 35 … 74 … 36
47 ) Medica , Tommy , Santa Clara ( SDP ) - (0.02) … 54 … 69 … 77 … 77
48 ) Jones , Clay , Alabama ( DET ) - (0.03) … 72 … 62 … 79 … 42
49 ) Rankin , Pierce , Washington ( TOR ) - (0.06) … 30 … 67 … 72 … 57
50 ) Kirby-Jones , AJ , Tennessee Tech ( OAK ) - (0.14) … 74 … 29 … 80 … 23

2010 Performance Evaluations – Mexican League Pitchers

Juan Oramas was the player we noted from last year’s MXL pitchers

As we are working on our team prospect lists, I thought we would provide a little diversion by posting the Mexican Summer League performance scores this week. We will take a look at Division I baseball performances next week, before we begin our team-by-team look at the prospect rankings.

A couple of things to remember about our Performance evaluations: 1) these are not necessarily prospect lists. While it is fair to assume that the best prospects will put up the best performances, these lists focus only on a player’s offensive performance while they were in the league during the 2010 season. They do not consider things like defensive ability, offense vs. required offense for a given position, or projectability. Prospect evaluation is a combination of art and science and this is the science part of that equation. Later in the fall, we will breakdown each team’s ‘prospects’ and rank them in ‘prospect value’ order. 2) What it is, is a comparative statistical look at each players performance, placed in context of their age, their home park, and the league. We rate each player in the five categories that we have found most significant in predicting future Major League performance. The players that rate the highest, have assembled the best ‘Performance’ in these areas. For a more detailed look at the statistics involved you can refer to previous articles on the site (http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-it-yourself-quantitative-examination.html).

A quick note about the rankings…The TOTAL is the weighted numerical value of the combined statistics that we use. It is scaled for the level of play. Typically, a player with a positive score will rank in the top 1% - 2% of all Minor League players. After the total we list the sub-scores in 4 areas of significance. These scores are presented, for ease of understanding, in a typical 20-80 scouting format. They represent how the individual player performed in those areas in relation to THE LEAGUE in question. A score of 50 represents league average. Players listed as ‘DNQ’ did not qualify for the rankings because of their limited playing time, but we felt their scores were worth noting. If you have further questions on the methodology, feel free to email me at baseballnumbers@ix.netcom.com.




2010 Mexican League Top Pitching Performances


Name Team POS Total HR Rate Control Dominance Stamina
1 ) Angel Araiza , CHI , R - 0.38 … 74 … 54 … 69 … 67
2 ) Marco Duarte , MEX , R - (0.08) … 72 … 63 … 80 … 35
3 ) Alfonso Sanchez , REY , R - (0.11) … 56 … 70 … 55 … 77
4 ) Marco Tovar , REY , L - (0.16) … 76 … 43 … 52 … 65
5 ) Edwin Tellez , MVA , R - (0.18) … 54 … 37 … 49 … 55
6 ) Alan Guerrero , REY , R - (0.27) … 50 … 72 … 79 … 30
7 ) Edwin Salas , TAB , R - (0.30) … 45 … 64 … 61 … 46
8 ) Alejandro Garrido , SAL , L - (0.31) … 61 … 67 … 74 … 69
9 ) Sergio Valenzuela , OAX , R - (0.34) … 54 … 62 … 71 … 79
10 ) Irving Jimenez , MVA , R - (0.41) … 72 … 56 … 39 … 73
11 ) Juan Noriega , MVA , R - (0.50) … 70 … 61 … 60 … 28
12 ) Adrian Ramirez , MTY , R - (0.52) … 40 … 70 … 70 … 44
13 ) Rolando Valdez , OAX , R - (0.52) … 37 … 42 … 69 … 76
14 ) Andres Meza , PUE , R - (0.57) … 71 … 72 … 43 … 78
15 ) Hector Velazquez , CAM , R - (0.63) … 59 … 53 … 48 … 55
16 ) Salvador Robles , MEX , L - (0.66) … 64 … 72 … 73 … 58
17 ) Efrain Nevares , SAL , L - (0.67) … 57 … 20 … 34 … 58


DNQ Jorge Dryjanski , SAL , R - (0.43) … 68 … 24 … 79 … 27
DNQ Enrique Gomez , TIG , R - (0.70) … 60 … 63 … 63 … 38

2010 Performance Evaluations – Mexican League Hitters

Japhet Amador posted the best MXL performance for the second straight season

As we are working on our team prospect lists, I thought we would provide a little diversion by posting the Mexican Summer League performance scores this week. We will take a look at Division I baseball performances next week, before we begin our team-by-team look at the prospect rankings. This year’s Mexican League was once again led by a player that we have been touting for a couple of seasons now—Japhet Amador.

A couple of things to remember about our Performance evaluations: 1) these are not necessarily prospect lists. While it is fair to assume that the best prospects will put up the best performances, these lists focus only on a player’s offensive performance while they were in the league during the 2010 season. They do not consider things like defensive ability, offense vs. required offense for a given position, or projectability. Prospect evaluation is a combination of art and science and this is the science part of that equation. Later in the fall, we will breakdown each team’s ‘prospects’ and rank them in ‘prospect value’ order. 2) What it is, is a comparative statistical look at each players performance, placed in context of their age, their home park, and the league. We rate each player in the five categories that we have found most significant in predicting future Major League performance. The players that rate the highest, have assembled the best ‘Performance’ in these areas. For a more detailed look at the statistics involved you can refer to previous articles on the site (http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-it-yourself-quantitative-examination.html).

A quick note about the rankings…The TOTAL is the weighted numerical value of the combined statistics that we use. It is scaled for the level of play. Typically, a player with a positive score will rank in the top 1% - 2% of all Minor League players. After the total we list the sub-scores in 4 areas of significance. These scores are presented, for ease of understanding, in a typical 20-80 scouting format. They represent how the individual player performed in those areas in relation to THE LEAGUE in question. A score of 50 represents league average. Players listed as ‘DNQ’ did not qualify for the rankings because of their limited playing time, but we felt their scores were worth noting. If you have further questions on the methodology, feel free to email me at baseballnumbers@ix.netcom.com.

2010 Mexican League Top Hitting Performances


Name Team POS TOTAL Reach Base Strike Zone Judgement Power Speed
1 ) Japhet Amador , MEX , 1B - 0.41 … 58 … 51 … 79 … 40
2 ) Leonardo Heras , REY , CF - 0.34 … 70 … 68 … 39 … 71
3 ) Antonio Lamas , MVA , SS - (0.16) … 31 … 61 … 48 … 65
4 ) Cesar Osuna , CAM , 3B - (0.27) … 21 … 73 … 46 … 38
5 ) Roberto Valencia , CAM , RF - (0.37) … 73 … 76 … 26 … 53
6 ) Jose Orozco , VER , OF - (0.47) … 36 … 26 … 66 … 36
7 ) Sandy Madera , YUC , 1B - (0.49) … 73 … 68 … 80 … 77
8 ) Ramon Ramirez , LAG , OF - (0.55) … 52 … 28 … 47 … 45
9 ) Jose Chavez , VER , 2B - (0.58) … 70 … 45 … 69 … 75
10 ) Ricardo Serrano , PUE , 2B - (0.65) … 34 … 60 … 68 … 38
11 ) Eduardo Arredondo , MEX , CF - (0.66) … 68 … 78 … 37 … 72
12 ) Sergio Perez , MTY , OF - (0.67) … 62 … 40 … 30 … 50
13 ) Sergio Garcia , VER , OF - (0.69) … 23 … 20 … 51 … 80


DNQ Ali Solis , TIG , C - 0.30 … 62 … 47 … 79 … 31
DNQ Eliezer Ortiz , PUE , OF - (0.55) … 22 … 31 … 78 … 72

How Did We Do? Trying to Make a Quantitative Assessment of a Subjective Topic (part III)

Would the addition of players like Carlos Triunfel have changed things much?

One of the complaints that we have heard was that in our assessment I included ten extra players that Baseball America and Diamond Futures had highly rated and that somehow advantaged those sources. The reality is that I had only intended to compare BA and Diamond Futures when I began. Once I had the 120 players, I didn’t want to go too terribly deeper because most of the sources only rated 100-110 players. But just to try to keep things as level as possible, here are the ten highest rated players by each source that aren’t in the other five sources consensus Top 100. For BA and Diamond Futures, this is how the players got onto the original list.

Baseball America

1) Nick Hagadone – 44
2) Jason Knapp – 66
3) Alex Colome – 68
4) Brett Jackson – 74
5) Josh Reddick – 75
6) Chad James – 78
7) Travis d’Arnuad -81
8) Adam Moore – 83
9) Austin Romine – 86
10) Mat Gamel -89


Diamond Futures

1) Alex Liddi – 48
2) Bobby Borchering – 52
3) Tim Alderson – 58
4) Jaime Garcia – 61
5) Matt Dominguez – 63
6) Wil Meyers – 64
7) Ryan Kalish – 66
8) Juan Francisco – 78
9) Manny Banuelos – 85
10) Dayan Viciedo -90


Keith Law

1) Carlos Triunfel -44
2) Jay Jackson -50
3) Anthony Rizzo -53
4) Zach Stewart – 55
5) Daryl Jones – 59
6) Matt Dominguez – 62
7) Matt Sweeney – 68
8) Michael Brantley – 71
9) Randall Delgado – 85
10) Ryan Kalish -86


Baseball Prospectus

1) Alex Colome – 42
2) Scott Sizemore – 57
3) Josh Reddick – 58
4) Hak-Ju Lee – 63
5) James Darnell – 64
6) Michael Ynoa – 66
7) Ryan Kalish – 76
8) Philippe Aumont – 78
9) Wil Myers – 83
10) Jordan Walden – 89


Hardball Times

1) Scott Sizemore - 30
2) Carlos Triunfel – 42
3) Jason Knapp – 46
4) Danny Duffy – 50
5) Eric Young, Jr – 56
6) Jemile Weeks – 59
7) Mike Minor – 67
8) Brandon Erbe – 69
9) Danny Espinosa – 70
10) Matt Hobgod – 72


FanGraphs

1) Andrew Cashner – 24
2) Austine Romine – 49
3) Brad Lincoln – 54
4) Zach McAllister -61
5) Zach Stewart – 62
6) Brandon Erbe -70
7) Jordan Walden – 78
8) Junichi Tazawa – 72
9) Brandon Allen -74
10) Thomas Neal – 75


I have attempted to color code the players that weren’t part of the original list. What should become relatively evident, is that outside of Baseball Prospectus—which would have had a neutral effect, making the list deeper by including the ‘outliers’ from the other sources would have negatively impacted them. If I had included them, these would have been the twenty additional players that weren’t part of the original list:


CONSENSUS ) PLAYER , POS , TEAM - BA … KL … HT … BP … FG … DF
106 ) Triunfel, Carlos , 3B , SEA - NR … 44 … 42 … NR … NR … 144
109 ) Brantley, Michael , OF , CLE - NR … 71 … 119 … NR … NR … 109
110 ) Martin, Ethan , RHP , LAD - NR … NR … 93 … 98 … 80 … 119
111 ) Heisey, Chris , OF , CIN - NR … 88 … 183 … NR … 95 … 157
112 ) Desmond, Ian , SS , WAS - NR … 103 … 163 … NR … 84 … 142
117 ) Walden, Jordan , RHP , LAA - NR … NR … 157 … 89 … 71 … 107
118 ) Stewart, Zach , RHP , TOR - NR … 55 … 194 … NR … 62 … 172
119 ) Ynoa, Michael , RHP , OAK - NR … NR … 106 … 66 … NR … 98
120 ) Melville, Tim , RHP , KC - NR … NR … 87 … 93 … NR … 97
123 ) Erbe, Brandon , RHP , BAL - NR … NR … 69 … NR … 70 … 153
124 ) Minor, Mike , LHP , ATL - NR … NR … 67 … NR … NR … 131
125 ) Lincoln, Brad , RHP , PIT - NR … 105 … 137 … NR … 54 … 224
134 ) Espinosa, Danny , SS , WAS - NR … NR … 70 … 101 … NR … 207
135 ) McAllister, Zach , RHP , NYY - NR … NR … NR … NR … 61 … 112
138 ) Hobgood, Matt , LHP , BAL - NR … NR … 72 … NR … NR … 169
140 ) Jones, Daryl , OF , STL - NR … 59 … NR … NR … NR … 122
143 ) Rizzo, Anthony , 1B , BOS - NR … 53 … NR … NR … NR … 136
147 ) Young Jr., Eric , 2B , COL - NR … NR … 56 … NR … NR … 211
148 ) Weeks, Jemile , 2B , OAK - NR … NR … 59 … NR … NR … 218
150 ) Sweeney, Matt , 3B , TB - NR … 68 … NR … NR … NR … 155


Applying the same methodology that was originally used would have resulted in the following adjustments:

Baseball America +5
Baseball Prospectus +4
Diamond Futures +4
Keith Law +2
FanGraphs +1
HardballTimes -4

So even with a list of 140 players, it wouldn’t have changed the rankings all that much:

Diamond Futures – 58
Keith Law – 47
FanGraphs – 44
Baseball Prospectus – 31
Hardball Times – 30
Baseball America -30

How Did We Do? Trying to Make a Quantitative Assessment of a Subjective Topic (part II)

Mike Trout is likely to enter the 2011 season as the #1 prospect in baseball

Yesterday we laid out how we selected and grouped the players for our analysis. Today we will actually put some numbers behind it. But before we begin, here is a, somewhat, subjective look at each sources’ Best/Worsts (Listed with where they ranked the player, followed by the consensus rank). The picks highlighted here focus on how the source did in relationship to the consensus measurement of the group. In other words, identifying that Stephen Strasburg was going to be good doesn’t provide as much value as identifying that Eric Hosmer was still an elite prospect, even though a lot of people were down on his 2009 performance.

Baseball America

10 Best Picks
1) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
2) Hector Rondon, NR (64)
3) Josh Vitters, 70 (42)
4) Grant Green, 52 (70)
5) Zach Britton, 63 (75)
6) Ike Davis, 62 (69)
7) Starlin Castro, 16 (22)
8) Mike Stanton, 3 (4)
9) Stephen Strasburg, 2 (2)
10) Jason Heyward, 1 (1)

10 Worst Picks
1) Alcides Escobar, 12 (23)
2) Michael Saunders, 30 (63)
3) Todd Frazier, 43 (79)
4) Nick Hagadone, 44 (88)
5) Eric Hosmer, 105 (78)
6) Mike Moustakas, 80 (46)
7) Adam Moore, 83 (122)
8) Manny Banuelos, NR (116)
9) Jose Tabata, NR (52)

T- 10) Wil Meyers, 105 (107)

T- 10) Josh Bell, 37 (48)

It was difficult coming up with ten picks where BA was ahead of the pack on and difficult limiting the worst list to only ten. All-in-all it wasn’t a very good year for the ‘industry leader’.


Baseball Prospectus

10 Best Picks
1) Julio Teheran, 33 (44)
2) Austin Jackson, 49 (60)
3) Mike Leake, 59 (72)
4) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
5) Mike Trout, 53 (67)
6) Arodys Vizcaino, 45 (66)
7) Wil Meyers, 83 (107)
8) Hector Rondon, NR (64)
9) Tyler Flowers, 72 (52)
10) Jio Mier, 97 (73)

10 Worst Picks
1) Eric Hosmer, NR (78)
2) Michael Taylor, 20 (32)
3) Donovan Tate, 29 (55)
4) Scott Sizemore, 57 (83)
5) Mike Moustakas, 79 (46)
6) Chris Withrow, 40 (65)
7) Jordan Lyles, NR (71)
8) Jhoulys Chacin, NR (74)
9) Jaime Garcia, NR (101)
10) Starlin Castro, 37 (22)

I have not performed any objective analysis of this, so I am hesitant to throw this out for consideration, but, BA had far fewer ‘extreme’ positions than did most of the other sources. When I totaled up who had the player rated highest and who had the player rated lowest, BA held only 12% of the extreme positions. The expected value—all things being equal—would be 17%. Hardball Times, on the other hand, held the extreme position 21% of the time (followed by Keith Law/Baseball Prospectus at 19%, Fan Graphs at 17% and Diamond Futures at 13%. A couple of possible explanations are that BA reaches an ‘expert’ consensus in coming up with their rankings, so they are likely to be less extreme…or….because BA is one of the more widely read sources, their ‘perspectives’ filter into the mainstream to such a degree that the other sources factor in, likely unknowingly, some sort of ‘BA bias’ into their rankings. Whatever the case, something is at play in this regard.


The significance is that it is a lot easier to find ‘extreme hits and misses’ for the other sources. Baseball Prospectus was no exception as they did well by taking extreme positions on Julio Teheran, Austin Jackson and Mike Leake—who all exceeded expectations; and got clobbered with their positions on players like Eric Hosmer, Michael Taylor, Donovan Tate and Scott Sizemore.


Keith Law

10 Best Picks
1) Eric Hosmer, 34 (78)
2) Mike Trout, 49 (67)
3) Acides Escobar, 54 (23)
4) Donovan Tate, NR (55)
5) James Darnell, NR (87)
6) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
7) Arodys Vizcaino, 43 (66)
8) Scott Sizemore, 107 (83)
9) Zach Britton, 25 (75)
10) Jhoulys Chacin, 48 (74)

10 Worst Picks
1) Wil Meyers, NR (107)
2) Mike Montgomery, 75 (33)
3) Pedro Alvarez, 35 (10)
4) Jay Jackson, 50 (100)
5) Tim Beckham, 29 (45)
6) Josh Vitters, 30 (42)
7) Matt Moore, 81 (36)
8) Jaime Garcia, NR (101)
9) Grant Green, 93 (70)

10) Wilson Ramos, 42 (58)

Those that regularly read Mr. Law undoubtedly understand his dogged adherence to his opinions. That fact is evident here, as his dogmatic belief in Eric Hosmer was rewarded, as was his dislike for favorites like Donovan Tate and Alcides Escobar. However Keith Law has never believed in Pedro Alvarez—seemingly a mistake, and his positional concerns regarding Wil Meyer created a big miss in 2010. On balance, though, he likely comes out more right than wrong in his extreme views.


FanGraphs

10 Best Picks
1) Eric Hosmer, 45 (78)
2) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
3) Michael Taylor, 63 (32)
4) Donovan Tate, NR (55)
5) Todd Frazier, NR (79)
6) Jordan Lyles, 58 (71)
7) Scott Sizemore, NR (83)
8) James Darnell, NR (87)
9) Mike Moustakas, 41 (46)
10) Mike Montgomery, 29 (33)

10 Worst Picks
1) Christian Friedrich, 11 (24)
2) Tim Beckham, 27 (45)
3) Grant Green, NR (70)
4) Wil Meyers, NR (107)
5) Mike Leake, 92 (72)
6) Jaime Garcia, NR (101)
7) Miguel Sano, NR (86)
8) Manny Banuelos, NR (116)
9) Tyler Flowers, 39 (52)
10) Matt Moore, 52 (36)

Admittedly, I don’t know much about FanGraphs’ methodology. One of the most quantitative sites, I am not certain whether or not that flows into their list. What I do know as that they held positive contrarian positions on players like Hosmer, Alderson, Michael Tayor and Donovan Tate; but missed identifying players like Grant Green, Wil Meyers and Jaime Garcia and their placing Friedrich at #11 may have been one of the worst misses on any list.


Hardball Times

10 Best Picks
1) Mike Moustakas, 23 (46)
2) Eric Hosmer, 47 (78)
3) Jhoulys Chacin, 20 (74)
4) Manny Banuelos, 86 (116)
5) Michael Taylor, 63 (32)
6) Casey Crosby, 76 (39)
7) Todd Frazier, 158 (79)
8) Nick Hagadone, NR (88)
9) Casey Kelly, 35 (19)
10) Shelby Miller, 28 (40)

10 Worst Picks
1) Donovan Tate, 9 (55)
2) Michael Saunders, 16 (63)
3) Hector Rondon, 17 (64)
4) Christian Friedrich, 14 (24)
5) Scott Sizemore, 30 (83)
6) Mike Trout, 92 (67)
7) Arodys Vizcaino, 116 (66)
8) Austin Jackson, 138 (60)
9) Mike Stanton, 15 (4)
10) Zach Britton, 120 (75)

It comes as little surprise to me how well they did at the top of their ‘Best’ list. They march to a ‘different beat’ over there, and, while it is reflected with their ‘Best’ picks, it is also reflected in their ‘Worst’ ones, as no list is as bad at the top as Tate, Saunders, Rondon and Friedrich—all with Top 20 rankings.


Diamond Futures

10 Best Picks
1) Mike Trout, 43 (67)
2) Wil Meyers, 64 (107)
3) Jaime Garcia, 61 (101)
4) Manny Banuelos, 85 (116)
5) Scott Sizemore, 193 (83)
6) Tyler Flowers, 186 (52)
7) Michael Saunders, 121 (63)
8) Tim Beckham, 82 (45)
9) Jose Tabata, 56 (92)
10) Dayan Viciedo, 90 (131)

10 Worst Picks
1) Tim Alderson, 58 (97)
2) Ike Davis, 158 (69)
3) Chris Withrow, 42 (68)
4) Shelby Miller, 73 (40)
5) Hector Rondon, 40 (64)
6) Jio Mier, 50 (73)
7) Noel Arguelles, 96 (144)
8) Eric Hosmer, 100 (78)
9) Julio Teheran, 65 (44)
10) Aaron Hicks, 15 (25)

The only real comment, for now, that I will make regarding our picks is that each of the 10 ‘Best’ picks represent the extreme positioning (either highest or lowest) for each of these players.


In an attempt to quantify this, what I have done is examine the three groupings that I posted yesterday. For the middle group of fifty players that ‘met expectations’, I awarded 1 point for every player that was ranked within ten positions (+ or -) of the consensus ranking. For those players that improved their prospect status, I awarded 1 point if they were ranked more than five places higher than the consensus and deducted a point if they were ranked 15 or more places below the consensus (i.e. you get a point for being ahead of the curve, but you lose a point if you didn’t like the player and they proved even better than expectations). Finally, for those players that saw their prospect status tumble, I awarded a point if they were ranked more than five places lower than the consensus, and I deducted a point if they were ranked 15 or more places higher than the consensus. Below is the summary of results:


Source -- Total …... Improved … Met … Declined

Diamond Futures -- 54 …... 8 (15/7) … 32 … 14 (20/6)

Keith Law (ESPN) -- 45 …... 6 (12/6) … 19 … 20 (23/3)

FanGraphs.com -- 43 …... 2 (9/7) …... 26 …... 15 (20/5)

HardBall Times -- 34 …... -4 (9/13) ...… 21 ...… 17 (24/7)

Baseball Prospectus --27 …... 0 (9/9) ...… 22 ...… 5 (13/8)

Baseball America -- 25 …... -4 (4/8) …... 27 ...… 2 (11/9)

The numbers in parenthesis are the breakdown between plus points and minus points in those categories. As should have been apparent by examining the ‘Best Pick’ lists, Diamond Futures finished on top, in large part, because of their ability to identify players that are underrated by the other sources. Players like Mike Trout, Wil Meyers, Jaime Garcia and Manny Banuelos didn’t really surprise us with their performances this year. If you are a regular reader of this space, you will find the contrast even more stark when you compare players at the lower levels. Our knack is identifying players earlier than most, and this has been the case around here since we were ahead of the curve on Albert Pujols in 2001. Our track record is long and solid in this area. Keith Law, on the other hand, performs best in identifying ‘overrated’ prospects, going 23-3 in the grouping of players whose value declined this year. Both Diamond Futures and Keith Law identified 35 players that were ‘wrongly’ categorized entering the year. In a head-to-head comparison between Keith Law and Diamond Futures, of the prospect risers, Law placed the better ranking on 14 of the players while Diamond Futures placed the better ranking on 17 players. Of the players whose stock has fallen it was 17-17. So Diamond Futures was slightly better overall. On the negative side, it was a down year for some of the more well-known names in the business. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus didn’t fair very well. It is only one season, and as I pointed out earlier, the true value of these prospects won’t be really known for another 5-10 years, so I wouldn’t draw any conclusions from this simplistic analysis. But I will point out that, both, BA and BP have far more reaches into the traditional scouting communities than do the other sources. I have a more empirical study that I am currently wrapping up that explores that angle to a greater depth.

I didn’t compile this to ‘blow our own horn’. I would have preferred that some ‘independent’ group tracked/analyzed these things. But we strongly believe in accountability. Anyone can have an opinion, but all opinions aren’t of equal value. At Diamond Futures we have been doing this for more than a dozen years. We have looked at how our results stack up with the ‘rest’ and understand where we rank.

Nor I am trying to imply that we are smarter, better informed, or even luckier than the ‘rest’. Simply stated...we use a system, one that has been revised continually for more than a decade. Our rankings are merely a product of that system and the system works. This is just a small attempt to demonstrate that, but those of you who have followed us for awhile now already understand that. All of that being said, if we weren't better than the 'rest', didn't offer something different, there would be no need for us. If you are new to this site, hopefully you will remember that when you are looking for prospect information this winter.

How Did We Do? Trying to Make a Quantitative Assessment of a Subjective Topic

Heyward had the pressure of being #1, but more than held his own

One of the things about the business of prospect analysis is that by the time players actually determine what type of Major League career they will have no one remembers what you said about them. This is sometimes good (John Stephens) and sometimes unfortunate (Albert Pujols). So while we are getting ready for our winter prospect lists, I decided to take a look back at how some of the more major prospect analysts ranked players this past season. A couple of caveats…realize that all we are doing is comparing where players were ranked at the beginning of the season vs. how their prospect status changed over the course of the year. Some of the sources that don’t look very good right now, could well end up having the last laugh when all is said and done.

As to the methodology…I assembled a pre-season Top 100 list from a consensus of six sources. They are: Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, Hardball Times, Fan Graphs and our very own rankings. To that I added the ten players that were the highest rated prospects by Baseball America that weren’t in the original 100. Then I added our ten highest rated players not already on the list. This gave us the following pool of 120 players:


CONSENSUS PLAYER POS TEAM
1 ) Heyward, Jason , OF , ATL
2 ) Strasburg, Stephen , RHP , WAS
3 ) Jennings, Desmond , OF , TB
4 ) Stanton, Mike , OF , FLA
5 ) Posey, Buster , C , SF
6 ) Montero, Jesus , C , NYY
7 ) Santana, Carlos , C , CLE
8 ) Feliz, Neftali , RHP , TEX
9 ) Matusz, Brian , LHP , BAL
10 ) Alvarez, Pedro , 3B , PIT
11 ) Smoak, Justin , 1B , TEX
12 ) Perez, Martin , LHP , TEX
13 ) Hellickson, Jeremy , RHP , TB
14 ) Bumgarner, Madison , LHP , SF
15 ) Ackley, Dustin , OF , SEA
16 ) Chapman, Aroldis , LHP , CIN
17 ) Matzek, Tyler , LHP , COL
18 ) Morrison, Logan , 1B , FLA
19 ) Kelly, Casey , RHP , BOS
20 ) Carter, Chris , 1B , OAK
21 ) Brown, Domonic , OF , PHI
22 ) Castro, Starlin , SS , CHC
23 ) Escobar, Alcides , SS , MIL
24 ) Friedrich, Christian , LHP , COL
25 ) Hicks, Aaron , OF , MIN
26 ) Wallace, Brett , 3B , TOR
27 ) Westmoreland, Ryan , OF , BOS
28 ) Drabek, Kyle , RHP , TOR
29 ) Davis, Wade , RHP , TB
30 ) Chisenhall, Lonnie , SS , CLE
31 ) Norris, Derek , C , WAS
32 ) Taylor, Michael , OF , OAK
33 ) Montgomery, Mike , LHP , KC
34 ) Parker, Jarrod , RHP , AZ
35 ) Freeman, Freddie , 1B , ATL
36 ) Moore, Matt , LHP , TB
37 ) Turner, Jacob , RHP , DET
38 ) Mejia, Jenrry , RHP , NYM
39 ) Crosby, Casey , LHP , DET
40 ) Miller, Shelby , RHP , STL
41 ) Castro, Jason , C , HOU
42 ) Vitters, Josh , 3B , CHC
43 ) Gordon, Dee , SS , LAD
44 ) Teheran, Julio , RHP , ATL
45 ) Beckham, Tim , SS , TB
46 ) Moustakas, Mike , 3B , KC
47 ) Martinez, Fernando , OF , NYM
48 ) Bell, Josh , 3B , BAL
49 ) Decker, Jaff , OF , SD
50 ) Lawrie, Brett , C , MIL
51 ) Alonso, Yonder , 1B , CIN
52 ) Flowers, Tyler , C , CHW
53 ) Crow, Aaron , RHP , KC
54 ) Conger, Hank , C , LAA
55 ) Tate, Donavan , OF , SD
56 ) Castro, Simon , RHP , SD
57 ) Gibson, Kyle , RHP , MIN
58 ) Ramos, Wilson , C , MIN
59 ) Scheppers, Tanner , RHP , TEX
60 ) Jackson, Austin , OF , DET
61 ) Wheeler, Zach , RHP , SF
62 ) Hudson, Daniel , RHP , CHW
63 ) Saunders, Michael , OF , SEA
64 ) Rondon, Hector , RHP , CLE
65 ) Withrow, Chris , RHP , LAD
66 ) Vizcaino, Arodys , RHP , ATL
67 ) Trout, Mike , OF , LAA
68 ) Arrieta, Jake , RHP , BAL
69 ) Davis, Ike , 1B , NYM
70 ) Green, Grant , SS , OAK
71 ) Lyles, Jordan , RHP , HOU
72 ) Leake, Mike , RHP , CIN
73 ) Mier, Jiovanni , SS , HOU
74 ) Chacin, Jhoulys , RHP , COL
75 ) Britton, Zach , LHP , BAL
76 ) Flores, Wilmer , SS , NYM
77 ) Sanchez, Tony , C , PIT
78 ) Hosmer, Eric , 1B , KC
79 ) Frazier, Todd , SS , CIN
80 ) Mitchell, Jared , OF , CHW
81 ) Storen, Drew , RHP , WAS
82 ) White, Alex , RHP , CLE
83 ) Sizemore, Scott , 2B , DET
84 ) Revere, Ben , OF , MIN
85 ) Brignac, Reid , SS , TB
86 ) Sano, Miguel , SS , MIN
87 ) Darnell, James , 3B , SD
88 ) Hagadone, Nick , LHP , CLE
89 ) Anderson, Lars , 1B , BOS
90 ) Knapp, Jason , RHP , CLE
91 ) Reckling, Trevor , LHP , LAA
92 ) Tabata, Jose , OF , PIT
93 ) Dominguez, Matt , 3B , FLA
94 ) Cashner, Andrew , RHP , CHC
95 ) Duffy, Danny , LHP , KC
96 ) Tazawa, Junichi , RHP , BOS
97 ) Alderson, Tim , RHP , PIT
98 ) Colome, Alex , RHP , TB
99 ) Allen, Brandon , 1B , AZ
100 ) Jackson, Jay , RHP , CHC
101 ) Garcia, Jaime , LHP , STL
102 ) Aumont, Phillippe , RHP , PHI
103 ) Lee, Hak-Ju , SS , CHC
104 ) Kalish, Ryan , OF , BOS
105 ) Neal, Thomas , OF , SF
107 ) Myers, Wil , C , KC
108 ) Romine, Austin , C , NYY
113 ) Jackson, Brett , OF , CHC
114 ) Liddi, Alex , 3B , SEA
115 ) Reddick, Josh , OF , BOS
116 ) Banuelos, Manny , LHP , NYY
121 ) James, Chad , LHP , FLA
122 ) Moore, Adam , C , SEA
127 ) Delgado, Randall , RHP , ATL
128 ) Borchering, Bobby , 3B , AZ
131 ) Viciedo, Dayan , 3B , CHW
136 ) d'Arnaud, Travis , C , TOR
139 ) Francisco, Juan , 3B , CIN
141 ) Gamel, Mat , 3B , MIL
144 ) Arguelles, Noel , LHP , KC

Now, when I started, I just intended to compare our ratings with Baseball America’s; but since I had used four additional sources, I decided to examine each one. What I did was I divided the player pool into three groups: One group (35 players) that had improved their prospect status over the course of the season, One group (35 players) whose prospect status has taken a bit of a fall—this is in comparison to the pre-season consensus rankings—and the remaining group (50 players) that pretty much met the expectations that the consensus 'we' had for them going into the year. Yes…this is somewhat subjective, but when you take a look at the groupings below, I don’t think there is too much to disagree with here. I have listed the three groups separately, as well as where each of the sources ranked the player. (BA=Baseball America; KL=Keith Law; HT = The Hardball Times; BP=Baseball Prospectus; FG=Fan Graphs; Diamond Futures)

Players That Improved Their Prospect Status

CONSENSUS PLAYER POS TEAM... BA ... KL ... HT ... BP ... FG ... DF
1 ) Heyward, Jason , OF , ATL … 1 … 1 … 1 … 2 … 1 … 1
2 ) Strasburg, Stephen , RHP , WAS … 2 … 2 … 2 … 1 … 2 … 2
4 ) Stanton, Mike , OF , FLA … 3 … 5 … 15 … 5 … 4 … 7
5 ) Posey, Buster , C , SF … 7 … 4 … 11 … 9 … 5 … 4
7 ) Santana, Carlos , C , CLE … 10 … 3 … 7 … 8 … 7 … 8
10 ) Alvarez, Pedro , 3B , PIT … 8 … 35 … 10 … 6 … 10 … 3
13 ) Hellickson, Jeremy , RHP , TB … 18 … 17 … 19 … 13 … 14 … 14
22 ) Castro, Starlin , SS , CHC … 16 … 12 … 44 … 37 … 25 … 16
33 ) Montgomery, Mike , LHP , KC … 39 … 75 … 54 … 36 … 29 … 28
36 ) Moore, Matt , LHP , TB … 35 … 81 … 43 … 41 … 52 … 38
40 ) Miller, Shelby , RHP , STL … 50 … 38 … 28 … 38 … 42 … 73
44 ) Teheran, Julio , RHP , ATL … 51 … 63 … 58 … 33 … 37 … 65
46 ) Moustakas, Mike , 3B , KC … 80 … 69 … 23 … 79 … 41 … 60
57 ) Gibson, Kyle , RHP , MIN … 61 … 89 … 90 … 71 … 77 … 41
60 ) Jackson, Austin , OF , DET … 76 … 70 … 138 … 49 … 51 … 92
66 ) Vizcaino, Arodys , RHP , ATL … 69 … 43 … 116 … 45 … 57 … 67
67 ) Trout, Mike , OF , LAA … 85 … 49 … 92 … 53 … 81 … 43
69 ) Davis, Ike , 1B , NYM … 62 … 64 … 94 … 87 … 63 … 158
70 ) Green, Grant , SS , OAK … 52 … 93 … 48 … 86 … - … 30
71 ) Lyles, Jordan , RHP , HOU … 91 … 60 … 38 … - … 58 … 89
72 ) Leake, Mike , RHP , CIN … 72 … 72 … 60 … 59 … 92 … 72
74 ) Chacin, Jhoulys , RHP , COL … 71 … 48 … 20 … - … 69 … 86
75 ) Britton, Zach , LHP , BAL … 63 … 25 … 120 … 73 … 78 … 94
78 ) Hosmer, Eric , 1B , KC … 105 … 34 … 47 … - … 45 … 100
81 ) Storen, Drew , RHP , WAS … 92 … 92 … 124 … 60 … - … 54
86 ) Sano, Miguel , SS , MIN … 94 … 97 … 99 … 35 … - … 76
92 ) Tabata, Jose , OF , PIT … - … 57 … 186 … 90 … 93 … 56
94 ) Cashner, Andrew , RHP , CHC … 95 … 79 … - … - … 24 … 104
101 ) Garcia, Jaime , LHP , STL … 105 … - … 109 … - … - … 61
104 ) Kalish, Ryan , OF , BOS … - … 86 … 145 … 76 … - … 66
107 ) Myers, Wil , C , KC … 105 … - … 130 … 83 … - … 64
116 ) Banuelos, Manny , LHP , NYY … - … 96 … 86 … - … - … 85
127 ) Delgado, Randall , RHP , ATL … - … 85 … 110 … - … - … 105
131 ) Viciedo, Dayan , 3B , CHW … - … - … - … - … - … 90
139 ) Francisco, Juan , 3B , CIN … - … - … 103 … - … - … 78

The top four names on this list all entered the season rated among the top five prospects, but I think it is hard to argue that each of them surpassed even the lofty expectations that were held for them with their remarkable Big League debuts.

Players Whose Prospect Status Has Fallen

CONSENSUS PLAYER POS TEAM... BA ... KL ... HT ... BP ... FG ... DF
3 ) Jennings, Desmond , OF , TB … 6 … 6 … 4 … 7 … 3 … 5
19 ) Kelly, Casey , RHP , BOS … 24 … 18 … 35 … 30 … 22 … 27
20 ) Carter, Chris , 1B , OAK … 28 … 33 … 25 … 11 … 19 … 37
23 ) Escobar, Alcides , SS , MIL … 12 … 54 … 31 … 19 … 15 … 29
24 ) Friedrich, Christian , LHP , COL … 33 … 36 … 14 … 22 … 11 … 36
25 ) Hicks, Aaron , OF , MIN … 19 … 19 … 53 … 26 … 23 … 15
27 ) Westmoreland, Ryan , OF , BOS … 21 … 32 … 39 … 14 … 35 … 22
32 ) Taylor, Michael , OF , OAK … 29 … 24 … 63 … 20 … 50 … 39
39 ) Crosby, Casey , LHP , DET … 47 … 45 … 76 … 32 … 44 … 47
41 ) Castro, Jason , C , HOU … 41 … 65 … 49 … 100 … 53 … 53
42 ) Vitters, Josh , 3B , CHC … 70 … 30 … 112 … 31 … 48 … 44
45 ) Beckham, Tim , SS , TB … 67 … 29 … 75 … 56 … 27 … 82
48 ) Bell, Josh , 3B , BAL … 37 … 61 … 133 … 39 … 38 … 59
52 ) Flowers, Tyler , C , CHW … 60 … 58 … 29 … 72 … 39 … 186
53 ) Crow, Aaron , RHP , KC … 40 … 87 … 88 … 54 … - … 49
55 ) Tate, Donavan , OF , SD … 53 … - … 9 … 29 … - … 55
58 ) Ramos, Wilson , C , MIN … 58 … 42 … 132 … 65 … 43 … 84
63 ) Saunders, Michael , OF , SEA … 30 … 74 … 16 … 62 … 84 … 121
64 ) Rondon, Hector , RHP , CLE … - … 51 … 17 … - … 91 … 40
65 ) Withrow, Chris , RHP , LAD … 48 … 83 … 84 … 40 … - … 42
73 ) Mier, Jiovanni , SS , HOU … 73 … 94 … 40 … 97 … 79 … 50
79 ) Frazier, Todd , SS , CIN … 43 … 66 … 158 … 67 … - … 106
83 ) Sizemore, Scott , 2B , DET … - … 107 … 30 … 57 … - … 193
85 ) Brignac, Reid , SS , TB … 54 … - … 77 … 69 … - … 114
87 ) Darnell, James , 3B , SD … 90 … - … 96 … 64 … - … 88
88 ) Hagadone, Nick , LHP , CLE … 44 … 100 … - … 91 … 85 … 166
96 ) Tazawa, Junichi , RHP , BOS … - … 98 … 147 … - … 72 … 120
97 ) Alderson, Tim , RHP , PIT … - … - … 74 … - … - … 58
98 ) Colome, Alex , RHP , TB … 68 … - … - … 42 … - … 80
100 ) Jackson, Jay , RHP , CHC … 98 … 50 … 123 … - … 99 … 138
102 ) Aumont, Phillippe , RHP , PHI … 93 … - … 126 … 78 … - … 170
105 ) Neal, Thomas , OF , SF … 96 … - … 105 … - … 75 … 102
115 ) Reddick, Josh , OF , BOS … 75 … - … 160 … 58 … - … 115
122 ) Moore, Adam , C , SEA … 83 … - … - … - … - … 175
144 ) Arguelles, Noel , LHP , KC … 100 … - … - … - … - … 96

Players Who Met Pre-Season Expectations

CONSENSUS PLAYER POS TEAM... BA ... KL ... HT ... BP ... FG ... DF
6 ) Montero, Jesus , C , NYY … 4 … 10 … 3 … 4 … 8 … 6
8 ) Feliz, Neftali , RHP , TEX … 9 … 13 … 12 … 3 … 6 … 10
9 ) Matusz, Brian , LHP , BAL … 5 … 11 … 6 … 18 … 13 … 9
11 ) Smoak, Justin , 1B , TEX … 13 … 9 … 8 … 17 … 16 … 11
12 ) Perez, Martin , LHP , TEX … 17 … 7 … 13 … 15 … 20 … 13
14 ) Bumgarner, Madison , LHP , SF … 14 … 28 … 5 … 21 … 17 … 21
15 ) Ackley, Dustin , OF , SEA … 11 … 8 … 52 … 12 … 12 … 12
16 ) Chapman, Aroldis , LHP , CIN … 22 … 16 … 61 … 10 … 18 … 20
17 ) Matzek, Tyler , LHP , COL … 23 … 22 … 21 … 23 … 26 … 19
18 ) Morrison, Logan , 1B , FLA … 20 … 21 … 18 … 50 … 21 … 18
21 ) Brown, Domonic , OF , PHI … 15 … 14 … 65 … 24 … 9 … 23
26 ) Wallace, Brett , 3B , TOR … 27 … 20 … 27 … 44 … 32 … 24
28 ) Drabek, Kyle , RHP , TOR … 25 … 40 … 62 … 16 … 33 … 26
29 ) Davis, Wade , RHP , TB … 34 … 15 … 36 … 34 … 28 … 62
30 ) Chisenhall, Lonnie , SS , CLE … 31 … 26 … 41 … 43 … 55 … 25
31 ) Norris, Derek , C , WAS … 38 … 31 … 45 … 28 … 31 … 33
34 ) Parker, Jarrod , RHP , AZ … 36 … 37 … 79 … 52 … 34 … 17
35 ) Freeman, Freddie , 1B , ATL … 32 … 67 … 37 … 51 … 36 … 31
37 ) Turner, Jacob , RHP , DET … 26 … 80 … 24 … 25 … 67 … 34
38 ) Mejia, Jenrry , RHP , NYM … 56 … 23 … 26 … 48 … 64 … 35
43 ) Gordon, Dee , SS , LAD … 46 … 39 … 95 … 27 … 30 … 70
47 ) Martinez, Fernando , OF , NYM … 77 … 73 … 57 … 80 … 46 … 46
49 ) Decker, Jaff , OF , SD … 82 … 27 … 33 … 74 … 98 … 57
50 ) Lawrie, Brett , C , MIL … 59 … 47 … 32 … 99 … 59 … 51
51 ) Alonso, Yonder , 1B , CIN … 45 … 76 … 51 … - … 47 … 32
54 ) Conger, Hank , C , LAA … 84 … 52 … 68 … 81 … 40 … 75
56 ) Castro, Simon , RHP , SD … 57 … 46 … 64 … 47 … 68 … 69
59 ) Scheppers, Tanner , RHP , TEX … 42 … 78 … 182 … 68 … 66 … 45
61 ) Wheeler, Zach , RHP , SF … 49 … 84 … 22 … 88 … 56 … 77
62 ) Hudson, Daniel , RHP , CHW … 66 … - … 71 … 55 … 65 … 79
68 ) Arrieta, Jake , RHP , BAL … 99 … 90 … 66 … 70 … 73 … 99
76 ) Flores, Wilmer , SS , NYM … 88 … 41 … 80 … 84 … - … 74
77 ) Sanchez, Tony , C , PIT … 79 … 82 … 78 … 75 … 60 … 87
80 ) Mitchell, Jared , OF , CHW … 55 … 95 … - … 61 … - … 83
82 ) White, Alex , RHP , CLE … 65 … - … 55 … 77 … 76 … 91
84 ) Revere, Ben , OF , MIN … 105 … - … 85 … 46 … - … 68
89 ) Anderson, Lars , 1B , BOS … 87 … 56 … 34 … - … - … 95
90 ) Knapp, Jason , RHP , CLE … 64 … - … 46 … 82 … - … 162
91 ) Reckling, Trevor , LHP , LAA … - … 77 … 89 … 92 … 89 … 93
93 ) Dominguez, Matt , 3B , FLA … - … 62 … 166 … - … 82 … 63
95 ) Duffy, Danny , LHP , KC … - … 102 … 50 … - … 94 … 71
99 ) Allen, Brandon , 1B , AZ … - … - … 83 … 85 … 74 … 101
103 ) Lee, Hak-Ju , SS , CHC … 105 … - … 149 … 63 … 88 … 111
108 ) Romine, Austin , C , NYY … 86 … - … 144 … - … 49 … 108
113 ) Jackson, Brett , OF , CHC … 74 … 108 … 117 … 96 … - … 81
114 ) Liddi, Alex , 3B , SEA … - … 106 … 91 … - … - … 48
121 ) James, Chad , LHP , FLA … 78 … - … 82 … - … - … 118
128 ) Borchering, Bobby , 3B , AZ … 105 … - … 193 … - … - … 52
136 ) d'Arnaud, Travis , C , TOR … 81 … 99 … 152 … - … - … 145
141 ) Gamel, Mat , 3B , MIL … 89 … - … - … - … 97 … 183


Tomorrow, we’ll take a look out some quantitative comparisons between the different 'experts'.