2009 Division I Pitching Performance Evaluations

This is what Major League hitters are likely to face come 2010

Here are the Pitcher Performance Evaluations. Please remember, that while there is a strong correlation between the performance evaluation scores and future professional success, these are not rankings of the prospect value of these players. Much more goes into deriving the prospect value than just performance. What they are, is a park neutral, level neutral, age adjusted look at each players 2009 performance in College. To give you a somewhat historical feel for how they work, I have listed the Top 10 Performances by draft eligible Pitchers from the 2007 Draft. And then I have a list of the top 10 college Pitchers actually drafted in 2007:

2007 Top 10 Pitchers – By Performance
1) David Price, Vanderbilt - 1.04
2) James Simmons, UC-Riverside - 0.87
3) Wes Roemer, Cal State-Fullerton - 0.86
4) Marc Rzepczynski, UC-Riverside - 0.68
5) Ross Detwiler, Missouri - 0.68
6) Dillon Gee, Texas-Arlington - 0.62
7) Bryan Augenstein, Florida - 0.59
8) Aaron Poreda, San Francisco - 0.56
9) James Adkins, Tennessee - 0.55
10) Nick Schmidt, Arkansas - 0.52

First 10 College Pitchers Drafted in 2007
1) David Price
2) Daniel Moskos
3) Ross Detwiler
4) Casey Weathers
5) Joe Savery
6) Nick Schmidt
7) Aaron Poreda
8) James Simmons
9) Andrew Brackman
10) Clay Moprtensen

As you can see, 5 of the 10 players on both lists are the same. The differences are Wes Roemer, who was the 50th overall pick, Marc Rzepczynski, Dillon Gee, Bryan Augenstein and James Adkins who was the 39th overall selection. Roemer, Rzepczynski and Augenstein are all having breakout seasons in 2009.

This year’s list is headed by Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has been called one of the best college pitching prospects—ever. The numbers bear this out. Strasburg’s rating of 2.374 is not only the highest on this year’s list, but is 1.45 higher than the second best pitcher. The 2.374 represents that his average score in each of the five components that we use is roughly 2.4 standard deviations above the mean in every category. To give further context to this, of all the players in the Minor Leagues last year, Matt Wieters and Jason Heyward led the hitters with scores of 1.64 and 1.34 respectively. On the pitcher side, Madison Bumgarner and Brett Anderson led all pitchers with scores of 1.53 and 0.99 respectively. In the 2008 draft, Aaron Crowe was the top pitcher with a score of 0.38. Despite having one of the most loaded college hitting crops in recent memory, the top hitting scores of college players last year were Gordon Beckham (2.01), Buster Posey (1.98), and Yonder Alonso (1.92). In the six years that we have been looking at Division Performance Ratings, no pitcher has come within a full point of Strasburg's score. Stephen Strasburg is truly a special pitcher. The following are the Top 50, draft eligible, Pitchers this year and then a list of the 20 players who are returning to college in 2010.

Top 50 Pitcher Performance Scores for 2010

1 ) STRASBURG , Stephen … San Diego State - 2.374 (Dom - 80 ; Control - 74 ; Stamina - 73 ; HRrate - 71 )
2 ) Leake , Mike … Arizona State - 0.930 (Dom - 59 ; Control - 72 ; Stamina - 78 ; HRrate - 75 )
3 ) JENKINS , Chad … Kennesaw State - 0.872 (Dom - 61 ; Control - 75 ; Stamina - 75 ; HRrate - 76 )
4 ) Paxton , James … Kentucky - 0.858 (Dom - 69 ; Control - 64 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 43 )
5 ) BROTHERS , Rex … Lipscomb - 0.797 (Dom - 73 ; Control - 49 ; Stamina - 72 ; HRrate - 61 )
6 ) HECKATHORN , Kyle … Kennesaw State - 0.750 (Dom - 63 ; Control - 62 ; Stamina - 72 ; HRrate - 64 )
7 ) Gibson , Kyle … Missouri - 0.536 (Dom - 62 ; Control - 71 ; Stamina - 71 ; HRrate - 58 )
8 ) Arnett , Eric … Indiana - 0.509 (Dom - 59 ; Control - 57 ; Stamina - 76 ; HRrate - 68 )
9 ) Sullivan , Jerry … Oral Roberts - 0.463 (Dom - 65 ; Control - 65 ; Stamina - 71 ; HRrate - 71 )
10 ) Bashore , Matt … Indoana - 0.431 (Dom - 63 ; Control - 61 ; Stamina - 65 ; HRrate - 63 )
11 ) Black , Victor … Dallas Baptist - 0.323 (Dom - 63 ; Control - 49 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 65 )
12 ) Kelley , Tim … Witchita State - 0.306 (Dom - 61 ; Control - 69 ; Stamina - 70 ; HRrate - 54 )
13 ) Baumann , Buddy … Missouri State - 0.302 (Dom - 65 ; Control - 56 ; Stamina - 70 ; HRrate - 50 )
14 ) Spence , Josh … Arizona State - 0.288 (Dom - 62 ; Control - 60 ; Stamina - 63 ; HRrate - 73 )
15 ) GARCIA , Nate … Santa Clara - 0.252 (Dom - 58 ; Control - 61 ; Stamina - 74 ; HRrate - 61 )
16 ) LAVIGNE , Tyler … San Diego State - 0.247 (Dom - 55 ; Control - 61 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 67 )
17 ) White , Alex … North Carolina - 0.245 (Dom - 57 ; Control - 49 ; Stamina - 70 ; HRrate - 45 )
18 ) Mederos , Chris … Georgia Southern - 0.232 (Dom - 66 ; Control - 62 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 72 )
19 ) Moran , Brian … North Carolina - 0.201 (Dom - 67 ; Control - 75 ; Stamina - 42 ; HRrate - 70 )
20 ) Rembisz , Scott … Florida International - 0.195 (Dom - 57 ; Control - 69 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 43 )
21 ) Raley , Brooks … Texas A&M - 0.186 (Dom - 55 ; Control - 62 ; Stamina - 69 ; HRrate - 58 )
22 ) Berner , David … San Jose State - 0.179 (Dom - 54 ; Control - 77 ; Stamina - 74 ; HRrate - 54 )
23 ) Matyas , Scott … Minnesota - 0.172 (Dom - 79 ; Control - 68 ; Stamina - 38 ; HRrate - 55 )
24 ) COPELAND , Ryan … Illinois State - 0.170 (Dom - 49 ; Control - 76 ; Stamina - 69 ; HRrate - 62 )
25 ) Berry , Ryan … Rice - 0.156 (Dom - 51 ; Control - 73 ; Stamina - 65 ; HRrate - 65 )
26 ) SWANSON , Mark … Liberty - 0.140 (Dom - 55 ; Control - 71 ; Stamina - 65 ; HRrate - 69 )
27 ) Boxberger , Brad … USC - 0.121 (Dom - 56 ; Control - 39 ; Stamina - 72 ; HRrate - 66 )
28 ) MARKS , Justin … Louisville - 0.119 (Dom - 67 ; Control - 61 ; Stamina - 69 ; HRrate - 50 )
29 ) Lehman , Pat … George Washington - 0.114 (Dom - 53 ; Control - 70 ; Stamina - 80 ; HRrate - 73 )
30 ) Minor , Mike … Vanderbilt - 0.111 (Dom - 55 ; Control - 57 ; Stamina - 70 ; HRrate - 51 )
31 ) Bibona , Daniel … UC Irvine - 0.100 (Dom - 55 ; Control - 65 ; Stamina - 74 ; HRrate - 58 )
32 ) Ebert , Tom … Florida International - 0.083 (Dom - 58 ; Control - 73 ; Stamina - 63 ; HRrate - 62 )
33 ) KEHRER , Tyler … Eastern Illinois - 0.082 (Dom - 67 ; Control - 40 ; Stamina - 63 ; HRrate - 60 )
34 ) Rodriguez , Joe … Indiana State - 0.071 (Dom - 50 ; Control - 58 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 72 )
35 ) Rorick , Brian … Delaware - 0.063 (Dom - 60 ; Control - 46 ; Stamina - 74 ; HRrate - 58 )
36 ) Stock , Robert … USC - 0.059 (Dom - 58 ; Control - 41 ; Stamina - 54 ; HRrate - 63 )
37 ) BUCH , Ryan … Monmouth - 0.049 (Dom - 65 ; Control - 50 ; Stamina - 65 ; HRrate - 54 )
38 ) Smith , Eric … Rhode Island - 0.023 (Dom - 51 ; Control - 53 ; Stamina - 70 ; HRrate - 57 )
39 ) BRACH , Brett … Monmouth - 0.005 (Dom - 59 ; Control - 73 ; Stamina - 62 ; HRrate - 39 )
40 ) Rusin , Chris … Kentucky - 0.005 (Dom - 59 ; Control - 61 ; Stamina - 75 ; HRrate - 66 )
41 ) THOMSON , Matt … San Diego - -0.006 (Dom - 61 ; Control - 57 ; Stamina - 60 ; HRrate - 58 )
42 ) COLLOP , Justin … Toledo - -0.034 (Dom - 52 ; Control - 67 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 51 )
43 ) Way , Matt … Washington State - -0.135 (Dom - 59 ; Control - 59 ; Stamina - 72 ; HRrate - 57 )
44 ) Oliver , Andrew … Oklahoma State - -0.135 (Dom - 57 ; Control - 52 ; Stamina - 62 ; HRrate - 59 )
45 ) Landry , Kevin … William & Mary - -0.159 (Dom - 65 ; Control - 55 ; Stamina - 54 ; HRrate - 47 )
46 ) Keeling , Thomas … Oklahoma State - -0.181 (Dom - 68 ; Control - 50 ; Stamina - 50 ; HRrate - 59 )
47 ) Blandford , Tyler … Oklahoma State - -0.200 (Dom - 62 ; Control - 35 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 53 )
48 ) Hale , David … Princeton - -0.223 (Dom - 64 ; Control - 37 ; Stamina - 62 ; HRrate - 69 )
49 ) BLACK , Sean … Seton Hall - -0.227 (Dom - 52 ; Control - 51 ; Stamina - 72 ; HRrate - 46 )
50 ) Dwyer , Chris … Clemson - -0.243 (Dom - 57 ; Control - 54 ; Stamina - 62 ; HRrate - 41 )


Top 20 Returning Pitchers in 2010

1 ) Ranaudo , Anthony … LSU
2 ) Cole , Gerrit … UCLA
3 ) WHEELER , Cody … Coastal Carolina
4 ) Hultzen , Danny … Virginia
5 ) Routt , Nick … Mississippi State
6 ) Pill , Tyler … Cal State-Fullerton
7 ) CHAFIN , Andrew … Kent State
8 ) Wimmers , Alex … Ohio State
9 ) Cooper , Jordan … Witchita State
10 ) McGuire , Deck … Georgia Tech
11 ) Lowell , Charlie … Witchita State
12 ) Summers , Jarryd … West Virginia
13 ) Reyes , Jimmy … Elon
14 ) Ramirez , Noe … Cal State-Fullerton
15 ) Renken , Daniel … Cal State-Fullerton
16 ) CARPENTER , Ryan … Gonzaga
17 ) Ott , Matty … LSU
18 ) BLAIR , Kyle … San Diego
19 ) Bucciferro , Tony … Michigan State
20 ) Hernandez , Chris … Miami