2009 Division I Pitching Performance Evaluations

This is what Major League hitters are likely to face come 2010

Here are the Pitcher Performance Evaluations. Please remember, that while there is a strong correlation between the performance evaluation scores and future professional success, these are not rankings of the prospect value of these players. Much more goes into deriving the prospect value than just performance. What they are, is a park neutral, level neutral, age adjusted look at each players 2009 performance in College. To give you a somewhat historical feel for how they work, I have listed the Top 10 Performances by draft eligible Pitchers from the 2007 Draft. And then I have a list of the top 10 college Pitchers actually drafted in 2007:

2007 Top 10 Pitchers – By Performance
1) David Price, Vanderbilt - 1.04
2) James Simmons, UC-Riverside - 0.87
3) Wes Roemer, Cal State-Fullerton - 0.86
4) Marc Rzepczynski, UC-Riverside - 0.68
5) Ross Detwiler, Missouri - 0.68
6) Dillon Gee, Texas-Arlington - 0.62
7) Bryan Augenstein, Florida - 0.59
8) Aaron Poreda, San Francisco - 0.56
9) James Adkins, Tennessee - 0.55
10) Nick Schmidt, Arkansas - 0.52

First 10 College Pitchers Drafted in 2007
1) David Price
2) Daniel Moskos
3) Ross Detwiler
4) Casey Weathers
5) Joe Savery
6) Nick Schmidt
7) Aaron Poreda
8) James Simmons
9) Andrew Brackman
10) Clay Moprtensen

As you can see, 5 of the 10 players on both lists are the same. The differences are Wes Roemer, who was the 50th overall pick, Marc Rzepczynski, Dillon Gee, Bryan Augenstein and James Adkins who was the 39th overall selection. Roemer, Rzepczynski and Augenstein are all having breakout seasons in 2009.

This year’s list is headed by Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has been called one of the best college pitching prospects—ever. The numbers bear this out. Strasburg’s rating of 2.374 is not only the highest on this year’s list, but is 1.45 higher than the second best pitcher. The 2.374 represents that his average score in each of the five components that we use is roughly 2.4 standard deviations above the mean in every category. To give further context to this, of all the players in the Minor Leagues last year, Matt Wieters and Jason Heyward led the hitters with scores of 1.64 and 1.34 respectively. On the pitcher side, Madison Bumgarner and Brett Anderson led all pitchers with scores of 1.53 and 0.99 respectively. In the 2008 draft, Aaron Crowe was the top pitcher with a score of 0.38. Despite having one of the most loaded college hitting crops in recent memory, the top hitting scores of college players last year were Gordon Beckham (2.01), Buster Posey (1.98), and Yonder Alonso (1.92). In the six years that we have been looking at Division Performance Ratings, no pitcher has come within a full point of Strasburg's score. Stephen Strasburg is truly a special pitcher. The following are the Top 50, draft eligible, Pitchers this year and then a list of the 20 players who are returning to college in 2010.

Top 50 Pitcher Performance Scores for 2010

1 ) STRASBURG , Stephen … San Diego State - 2.374 (Dom - 80 ; Control - 74 ; Stamina - 73 ; HRrate - 71 )
2 ) Leake , Mike … Arizona State - 0.930 (Dom - 59 ; Control - 72 ; Stamina - 78 ; HRrate - 75 )
3 ) JENKINS , Chad … Kennesaw State - 0.872 (Dom - 61 ; Control - 75 ; Stamina - 75 ; HRrate - 76 )
4 ) Paxton , James … Kentucky - 0.858 (Dom - 69 ; Control - 64 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 43 )
5 ) BROTHERS , Rex … Lipscomb - 0.797 (Dom - 73 ; Control - 49 ; Stamina - 72 ; HRrate - 61 )
6 ) HECKATHORN , Kyle … Kennesaw State - 0.750 (Dom - 63 ; Control - 62 ; Stamina - 72 ; HRrate - 64 )
7 ) Gibson , Kyle … Missouri - 0.536 (Dom - 62 ; Control - 71 ; Stamina - 71 ; HRrate - 58 )
8 ) Arnett , Eric … Indiana - 0.509 (Dom - 59 ; Control - 57 ; Stamina - 76 ; HRrate - 68 )
9 ) Sullivan , Jerry … Oral Roberts - 0.463 (Dom - 65 ; Control - 65 ; Stamina - 71 ; HRrate - 71 )
10 ) Bashore , Matt … Indoana - 0.431 (Dom - 63 ; Control - 61 ; Stamina - 65 ; HRrate - 63 )
11 ) Black , Victor … Dallas Baptist - 0.323 (Dom - 63 ; Control - 49 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 65 )
12 ) Kelley , Tim … Witchita State - 0.306 (Dom - 61 ; Control - 69 ; Stamina - 70 ; HRrate - 54 )
13 ) Baumann , Buddy … Missouri State - 0.302 (Dom - 65 ; Control - 56 ; Stamina - 70 ; HRrate - 50 )
14 ) Spence , Josh … Arizona State - 0.288 (Dom - 62 ; Control - 60 ; Stamina - 63 ; HRrate - 73 )
15 ) GARCIA , Nate … Santa Clara - 0.252 (Dom - 58 ; Control - 61 ; Stamina - 74 ; HRrate - 61 )
16 ) LAVIGNE , Tyler … San Diego State - 0.247 (Dom - 55 ; Control - 61 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 67 )
17 ) White , Alex … North Carolina - 0.245 (Dom - 57 ; Control - 49 ; Stamina - 70 ; HRrate - 45 )
18 ) Mederos , Chris … Georgia Southern - 0.232 (Dom - 66 ; Control - 62 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 72 )
19 ) Moran , Brian … North Carolina - 0.201 (Dom - 67 ; Control - 75 ; Stamina - 42 ; HRrate - 70 )
20 ) Rembisz , Scott … Florida International - 0.195 (Dom - 57 ; Control - 69 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 43 )
21 ) Raley , Brooks … Texas A&M - 0.186 (Dom - 55 ; Control - 62 ; Stamina - 69 ; HRrate - 58 )
22 ) Berner , David … San Jose State - 0.179 (Dom - 54 ; Control - 77 ; Stamina - 74 ; HRrate - 54 )
23 ) Matyas , Scott … Minnesota - 0.172 (Dom - 79 ; Control - 68 ; Stamina - 38 ; HRrate - 55 )
24 ) COPELAND , Ryan … Illinois State - 0.170 (Dom - 49 ; Control - 76 ; Stamina - 69 ; HRrate - 62 )
25 ) Berry , Ryan … Rice - 0.156 (Dom - 51 ; Control - 73 ; Stamina - 65 ; HRrate - 65 )
26 ) SWANSON , Mark … Liberty - 0.140 (Dom - 55 ; Control - 71 ; Stamina - 65 ; HRrate - 69 )
27 ) Boxberger , Brad … USC - 0.121 (Dom - 56 ; Control - 39 ; Stamina - 72 ; HRrate - 66 )
28 ) MARKS , Justin … Louisville - 0.119 (Dom - 67 ; Control - 61 ; Stamina - 69 ; HRrate - 50 )
29 ) Lehman , Pat … George Washington - 0.114 (Dom - 53 ; Control - 70 ; Stamina - 80 ; HRrate - 73 )
30 ) Minor , Mike … Vanderbilt - 0.111 (Dom - 55 ; Control - 57 ; Stamina - 70 ; HRrate - 51 )
31 ) Bibona , Daniel … UC Irvine - 0.100 (Dom - 55 ; Control - 65 ; Stamina - 74 ; HRrate - 58 )
32 ) Ebert , Tom … Florida International - 0.083 (Dom - 58 ; Control - 73 ; Stamina - 63 ; HRrate - 62 )
33 ) KEHRER , Tyler … Eastern Illinois - 0.082 (Dom - 67 ; Control - 40 ; Stamina - 63 ; HRrate - 60 )
34 ) Rodriguez , Joe … Indiana State - 0.071 (Dom - 50 ; Control - 58 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 72 )
35 ) Rorick , Brian … Delaware - 0.063 (Dom - 60 ; Control - 46 ; Stamina - 74 ; HRrate - 58 )
36 ) Stock , Robert … USC - 0.059 (Dom - 58 ; Control - 41 ; Stamina - 54 ; HRrate - 63 )
37 ) BUCH , Ryan … Monmouth - 0.049 (Dom - 65 ; Control - 50 ; Stamina - 65 ; HRrate - 54 )
38 ) Smith , Eric … Rhode Island - 0.023 (Dom - 51 ; Control - 53 ; Stamina - 70 ; HRrate - 57 )
39 ) BRACH , Brett … Monmouth - 0.005 (Dom - 59 ; Control - 73 ; Stamina - 62 ; HRrate - 39 )
40 ) Rusin , Chris … Kentucky - 0.005 (Dom - 59 ; Control - 61 ; Stamina - 75 ; HRrate - 66 )
41 ) THOMSON , Matt … San Diego - -0.006 (Dom - 61 ; Control - 57 ; Stamina - 60 ; HRrate - 58 )
42 ) COLLOP , Justin … Toledo - -0.034 (Dom - 52 ; Control - 67 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 51 )
43 ) Way , Matt … Washington State - -0.135 (Dom - 59 ; Control - 59 ; Stamina - 72 ; HRrate - 57 )
44 ) Oliver , Andrew … Oklahoma State - -0.135 (Dom - 57 ; Control - 52 ; Stamina - 62 ; HRrate - 59 )
45 ) Landry , Kevin … William & Mary - -0.159 (Dom - 65 ; Control - 55 ; Stamina - 54 ; HRrate - 47 )
46 ) Keeling , Thomas … Oklahoma State - -0.181 (Dom - 68 ; Control - 50 ; Stamina - 50 ; HRrate - 59 )
47 ) Blandford , Tyler … Oklahoma State - -0.200 (Dom - 62 ; Control - 35 ; Stamina - 67 ; HRrate - 53 )
48 ) Hale , David … Princeton - -0.223 (Dom - 64 ; Control - 37 ; Stamina - 62 ; HRrate - 69 )
49 ) BLACK , Sean … Seton Hall - -0.227 (Dom - 52 ; Control - 51 ; Stamina - 72 ; HRrate - 46 )
50 ) Dwyer , Chris … Clemson - -0.243 (Dom - 57 ; Control - 54 ; Stamina - 62 ; HRrate - 41 )


Top 20 Returning Pitchers in 2010

1 ) Ranaudo , Anthony … LSU
2 ) Cole , Gerrit … UCLA
3 ) WHEELER , Cody … Coastal Carolina
4 ) Hultzen , Danny … Virginia
5 ) Routt , Nick … Mississippi State
6 ) Pill , Tyler … Cal State-Fullerton
7 ) CHAFIN , Andrew … Kent State
8 ) Wimmers , Alex … Ohio State
9 ) Cooper , Jordan … Witchita State
10 ) McGuire , Deck … Georgia Tech
11 ) Lowell , Charlie … Witchita State
12 ) Summers , Jarryd … West Virginia
13 ) Reyes , Jimmy … Elon
14 ) Ramirez , Noe … Cal State-Fullerton
15 ) Renken , Daniel … Cal State-Fullerton
16 ) CARPENTER , Ryan … Gonzaga
17 ) Ott , Matty … LSU
18 ) BLAIR , Kyle … San Diego
19 ) Bucciferro , Tony … Michigan State
20 ) Hernandez , Chris … Miami

2009 Division I Offensive Player Performance Evaluations

Marc Krauss of Ohio University is one of the more unsung hitters in this draft class

A little later than I would have hoped, but finally here…Please remember, that while there is a strong correlation between the performance evaluation scores and future professional success, these are not rankings of the prospect value of these players. Much more goes into deriving the prospect value than just performance. What they are, is a park neutral, level neutral, age adjusted look at each players 2009 performance in College. To give you a somewhat historical feel for how they work, I have listed the Top 10 Performances by draft eligible hitters from the 2007 Draft. And then I have a list of the top 10 college hitters actually drafted in 2007:

2007 Top 10 Hitters – By Performance
1) Tony Thomas, Florida St – 1.41
2) Matt Laporta, Florida – 1.28
3) Kellen Kulbacki, James Madison – 1.10
4) Josh Donaldson, Auburn – 1.00
5) Matt Wieters, Georgia Tech – 0.86
6) Brandon Waring, Wofford – 0.82
7) Steven Hill, Stephen F Austin – 0.81
8) Sean Doolittle, Virginia – 0.81
9) Eric Sogard, Arizona St – 0.71
10) J.P. Arencibia, Tennessee – 0.64

First 10 College Hitters Drafted in 2007
1) Matt Wieters
2) Matt Laporta
3) Beau Mills
4) J.P. Arencibia
5) Todd Frazier
6) Julio Borbon
7) Kellen Kulbacki
8) Sean Doolittle
9) Josh Donaldson
10) Mitch Canham

As you can see, 6 of the 10 players on both lists are the same. Beau Mills didn’t play Division I Baseball. The Differences are that Tony Thomas, Brandon Waring, Steven Hill and Eric Sogard—who all, by the way, are enjoying fine 2009 seasons; are defensively challenged hitting prospects who are going to rely heavily on their bat if they are to make it at the next level.
This year’s top 10 list is equally likely to produce 5 or 6 of the first 10 college players drafted. A few names to take note of that aren’t getting the draft ’buzz’ that there performance has warranted include: Derek McCallum, Minnesota; Marc Krauss, Ohio University; Kent Matthes, Alabama and Brett Nommensen, Eastern Illinois. The following are the Top 50, draft eligible, offensive players this year and then a list of the 20 players who are returning to college in 2010.


1) Wheeler, Tim... Sacramento State - 1.464 ( AVG - 71 ; POW - 79 ; StrkZn - 59 ; SPD - 69 )
2) Ackey, Dustin...North Carolina - 1.297 ( AVG - 75 ; POW - 71 ; StrkZn - 66 ; SPD - 59 )
3) McCallum, Derek...Minnesota - 1.022 ( AVG - 80 ; POW - 75 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 57 )
4) Phegley, Josh...Indiana - 0.992 ( AVG - 76 ; POW - 74 ; StrkZn - 64 ; SPD - 45 )
5) Krauss, Marc...Ohio U - 0.924 ( AVG - 63 ; POW - 77 ; StrkZn - 67 ; SPD - 51 )
6) Gaynor, Wade...Western Kentucky - 0.911 ( AVG - 56 ; POW - 74 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 72 )
7) Prince, Josh...Tulane - 0.779 ( AVG - 55 ; POW - 52 ; StrkZn - 66 ; SPD - 80 )
8 ) Poythress, Rich...Georgia - 0.774 ( AVG - 74 ; POW - 79 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 43 )
9) Kipnis, Jason...Arizona St - 0.694 ( AVG - 57 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 67 ; SPD - 76 )
10) Matthes, Kent...Alabama - 0.676 ( AVG - 59 ; POW - 80 ; StrkZn - 55 ; SPD - 65 )
11) Buschini, Adam...Cal-Poly - 0.644 ( AVG - 80 ; POW - 69 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 65 )
12) Bergman, Joey...Coll of Charles - 0.613 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 64 ; StrkZn - 65 ; SPD - 80 )
13 ) Hazlbaker, Jeremy... Ball State - 0.606 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 61 ; StrkZn - 66 ; SPD - 73 )
14 ) Morris, Tim... St Johns - 0.604 ( AVG - 80 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 59 ; SPD - 52 )
15) Carpenter, Matt...TCU - 0.594 ( AVG - 58 ; POW - 70 ; StrkZn - 71 ; SPD - 65 )
16) Nommensen, Brett...Eastern Illinois - 0.571 ( AVG - 75 ; POW - 80 ; StrkZn - 72 ; SPD - 48 )
17 ) Songco, Angelo...Loyola Marymount - 0.534 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 69 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 48 )
18 ) McGuiness, Chris...Citadel - 0.530 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 78 ; SPD - 42 )
19) Davis, Khris...Cal State-Fullerton - 0.524 ( AVG - 57 ; POW - 71 ; StrkZn - 58 ; SPD - 66 )
20) Townsend, Tyler...Florida International - 0.508 ( AVG - 66 ; POW - 74 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 43 )
21) Henderson, Chris...George Mason - 0.504 ( AVG - 73 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 60 ; SPD - 43 )
22) Helmick, Gary...Townson St - 0.462 ( AVG - 68 ; POW - 66 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 63 )
23) Dageford, Devon...Louisiana Tech - 0.460 ( AVG - 58 ; POW - 80 ; StrkZn - 50 ; SPD - 57 )
24) Burnette, Chase...Georgia Tech - 0.439 ( AVG - 66 ; POW - 72 ; StrkZn - 58 ; SPD - 43 )
25) Ebert, Nick...South Carolina - 0.426 ( AVG - 57 ; POW - 76 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 47 )
26) Shoemaker, Brady...Indiana State - 0.413 ( AVG - 67 ; POW - 69 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 59 )
27) Pollock, AJ...Notre Dame - 0.411 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 60 ; StrkZn - 60 ; SPD - 69 )
28) Belt, Brandon... Texas - 0.378 ( AVG - 61 ; POW - 59 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 63 )
29) Sedon, Chris...Pittsburgh - 0.372 ( AVG - 70 ; POW - 75 ; StrkZn - 44 ; SPD - 61 )
30) Cardullo, Stephen...Florida State - 0.318 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 59 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 70 )
31) Kobernus, Jeff...California - 0.297 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 56 ; StrkZn - 54 ; SPD - 70 )
32) Nurre, Tommy... MiamiOhio - 0.259 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 68 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 72 )
33) Henry, Jordan...Mississippi - 0.256 ( AVG - 54 ; POW - 38 ; StrkZn - 72 ; SPD - 80 )
34) Mitchell, Jared...LSU - 0.255 ( AVG - 46 ; POW - 53 ; StrkZn - 60 ; SPD - 76 )
35) Goldschmidt, Paul...Texas St - 0.254 ( AVG - 50 ; POW - 64 ; StrkZn - 71 ; SPD - 51 )
36) Seager, Kyle...North Carolina - 0.246 ( AVG - 67 ; POW - 54 ; StrkZn - 62 ; SPD - 68 )
37) Crawford, Evan...Indiana - 0.239 ( AVG - 71 ; POW - 52 ; StrkZn - 49 ; SPD - 77 )
38) Langfels, Jayson...Eastern Kentucky - 0.228 ( AVG - 63 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 46 ; SPD - 65 )
39) Stidham, Jason...Florida State - 0.227 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 64 ; SPD - 45 )
40) Black, Dan...Purdue - 0.209 ( AVG - 48 ; POW - 70 ; StrkZn - 71 ; SPD - 52 )
41) Carlson, Ben...Missouri State - 0.207 ( AVG - 53 ; POW - 73 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 57 )
42) Castine, Jonathan...Dayton - 0.207 ( AVG - 61 ; POW - 68 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 44 )
43) Drake, Brayden...Missouri State - 0.202 ( AVG - 75 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 53 )
44) Maxfield, Zach...Florida Gulf Coast - 0.197 ( AVG - 73 ; POW - 76 ; StrkZn - 52 ; SPD - 42 )
45) Wheeler, Ryan...Loyola Marymount - 0.195 ( AVG - 54 ; POW - 60 ; StrkZn - 62 ; SPD - 52 )
46) Wood, Ryan...East Carolina - 0.189 ( AVG - 61 ; POW - 61 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 67 )
47) Hamme, Ryan...Campbell - 0.186 ( AVG - 67 ; POW - 60 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 66 )
48) Goins, Ryan... Dallas Baptist - 0.169 ( AVG - 51 ; POW - 68 ; StrkZn - 64 ; SPD - 57 )
49) Melillo, Mike...Elon - 0.151 ( AVG - 44 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 67 ; SPD - 57 )
50) Krieger, Scott...George Mason - 0.142 ( AVG - 66 ; POW - 76 ; StrkZn - 55 ; SPD - 51 )

Top Returning Offensive Players for 2010

1 ) Brentz , Bryce … MidTennst
2 ) Rendon , Anthony … Rice
3 ) Wong , Kolten … UH
4 ) CHANNING , Troy … SMC
5 ) McGee , Mike … FS
6 ) SPRINGER , George … UCONN
7 ) Holt , Tyler … FS
8 ) Dickerson , Alex … IND
9 ) Jensen , Matt … CP
10 ) Parker , Jarrett … VA
11 ) Hawn , Cody … UT
12 ) Muno , Danny … FS
13 ) Forsythe , Blake … UT
14 ) KIRBY-JONES , AJ … Tennesee Tech
15 ) Eaton , Adam … MiamiOhio
16 ) NOEL , Rico … Coastal Carolina
17 ) PANIK , Joe … St Johns
18 ) KAUPPILA , Kris … POR
19 ) Bradley , Jackie … SC
20 ) Thomas , Ben … Xavier

Do-It-Yourself - Understanding Performance Evaluation

Later this evening I will be posting the Leaderboards from our 2009 Division I Performance Ratings. I thought I’d use this opportunity to discuss a little more about the ratings. At Diamond Futures, our performance ratings form the cornerstone of all of our analysis. In order to try to forecast what will happen sometime in the future, we need to have a solid understanding of what the current state is. Performance Ratings are the tool that we use to assess current state.

Essentially we have determined that there are five statistical factors of performance that correlate strongly with future success as a player moves up the chain. While they all don’t correlate equally, individually they all contribute to our ‘one number’ assessment of past performance. With them, we have demonstrated that we can correlate current/past performance with future performance at a coefficient of just under .50. While for some of you that means absolutely nothing, and for others your first reaction may be “that isn’t extremely high”, the reality is that this type of correlation against future performance, blows away anything else currently available. More importantly, we haven’t just used this method for a couple of years, this has been a continual refinement process that now stretches more than a decade, and has been tested on tens of thousands data points. And the beauty is that it is nearly as accurate using college data as it is using minor league data—in spite of the wood vs. aluminum bat issues.

Pitchers and Hitters each have five characteristics of their statistical profile that we look at. Age vs. Level of competition is a component of both. For hitters the other four are 1) Ability to hit for power- measured by a proprietary power calculation; 2) Ability to hit for Average – using the standard batting average calculation; 3) Ability to exercise good strike zone control and judgement – measured by the propensity to both strike out and walk; and 4) Speed – which is again measured by a proprietary calculation based on readily available stats. For pitchers, the four additional characteristics are 1) Dominance – measured by strikeout rates; 2) Control – measured by the rate at which walks are issued; 3) HRrate, which is merely a measure of how often HRs are allowed and 4) Stamina – measured by the average outing length. Each of these factors is calculated using data that is normalized for both Parks and Levels of Play. While we work with them in units of standard deviation, we will always express them in similar fashion to the 20-80 range that is used in scouting profiles. If you see a Control figure for a pitcher with a rating of 50, this means that his normalized Control performance is roughly minor league average--50 is the mean. A score of 80 or a score of 20 roughly equates to three standard deviations above or below the mean. Once we have all of the individual components, we combine them into a single numerical calculation that typical ranges between 2.00 on the high side and negative 3.00 on the low side. Players that are generally considered to have strong chances as a prospect have a positive overall score.

I have tried to keep this as simple as possible. Our goal is not to bury the reader in statistics, but to shine a little light on how we use statistics to develop very real, very positive results. While the very nature of what we do requires us to constantly express things in numerical terms, you will find that, whenever feasible, we try to not cloud the picture with heavy statistical analysis. The best way to understand what we do is to actually see the results. Some of the first results you will have are the Division I Performance Ratings. If there are things that require more explanation feel free to email us or leave a comment in the ‘Mailbag’.

Our Take on the Super Regionals

Andrew Carraway and his Cavalier teammates hope to be celebrating again this weekend

In case you missed it, last weekend was a great weekend for college baseball and it is shaping up to be one of the better fields in recent memory for the trip to Omaha next week. While we all love a good Cinderella story, when it comes to championships, I want the best to face the best and see who is left standing. With a record tying thirteen #1 seeds advancing out of Regional play, that’s just what we have shaping up. Personally, we only went 10-6 last week, but Vanderbilt and Oregon State came close to making us look like geniuses, so I’ll take it as we head into this weekend’s Super Regional Match-ups. Here is our take on a series by series basis.

Rice (43-16) at LSU (49-16)
Let’s kick things off with the best match-up of the weekend. LSU was the #3 seed entering the tournament, and they ended up with a matchup against a team that had a strong case for their own National Seed. If you look at most of the polls, you will find LSU to be the consensus #1 team in the country right now, as they enter this game riding an eight game winning streak, and the best record in the country against Top 50 opponents. It should be a great match-up, and without a doubt Anthony Ranaudo is the best pitcher that will be in Baton Rouge this weekend. But despite the fact that Super Regional Hosts win 66% of the time and everything else the Tigers have going for them, I think the Game #2 and Game #3 pitching matchups decidedly favor the Owls and look for them to pull off the upset.

Virginia (46-12) at Mississippi (43-18)
The Cavaliers have quickly become one of my personal favorites for persevering through what was easily the worst hand dealt to any team in this tournament. They were impressive in winning the Irvine Regional—clearly the Tournament’s toughest. They have to travel to Oxford this weekend, trying to become only the 9th team in twelve years to win both the Regional and Super Regional on the road—That’s pretty big odds. What they do have in their favor though is deep and talented starting pitching. Friday’s first game should be a great match-up, but the Cavaliers would hold the decided advantage in Games #2 and #3, so in another upset, I’ll take the Cavaliers to advance.

Louisville (47-16) at Cal State-Fullerton (45-14)
I didn’t pick Louisville to survive last weekend at home and certainly won’t be picking them against one of the Top 3 teams in the tourney on the road. This, to me, appears to be the biggest mismatch of this round, as I don’t find Louisville’s talent competitive in any facet of the game. I will be shocked if this goes more than two games.

Arkansas (37-22) at Florida State (45-16)
The Razorbacks took out a talented team in Norman, OK last weekend and it wouldn’t totally surprise me if they did the same in Tallahassee, but the Seminoles have been one of the hottest teams over the last six weeks, going 24-4 during that stretch. The game #1 pitching match-up looks to be about dead-even and game #2 has a decidedly Seminole slant. If the ‘noles can knock off Keuchel in game #1, I think they sweep. If they don’t and we get to a game #3, neither of these teams have much of a #3 starter. Based on the thumping the Seminoles put on the backend of Ohio State’s rotation last weekend, I’d still call them the favorite—but I am sure they’d rather not take their chances with a 3rd game.

TCU (39-16) at Texas (44-13)
It certainly looked like the Horned Frogs were going to a 4th game on Sunday night against Oregon State, but a late inning rally sealed the deal and they get to take on a Longhorn team that breezed through their Regional in Austin. I’d have a hard time seeing TCU winning either of the first two games, but even if they did manage to squeak one out, Texas holds a huge advantage among #3 starters. Expect the Tournament’s #1 seed to advance rather easily.

Southern Miss (38-24) at Florida (42-20)
You’ll hear me point out when I told you something surprising would happen and it does. Likewise, I’ll tell you when I miss something badly. Southern Miss was the one team that I thought really didn’t belong in the field when it was announced. Although they weren’t in the strongest Region, there were two teams (Georgia Tech and Elon) that were clearly better. Yet here we sit a week later looking at the Golden Eagles taking on the Gators in Gainesville. Make no mistake, I am not high on the Gators, as I think they were clearly the weakest of the National Seeds. I find their starting pitching frightening, and there are few teams of the remaining 16 that I would favor them against. But Southern Miss is still out of their league here, as even after last weekend’s Regional win, they are still just 7-10 on the year against Top 50 teams. Stranger things have happened, but I think the Golden Eagle run ends right here.

East Carolina (46-18) at North Carolina (45-16)
This Super Regional pits one of the Tournament’s most consistent/true to form teams, the Pirates, against probably the Tournament’s most inconsistent teams. With talents like Dustin Ackley, Alex White and Matt Harvey, North Carolina could beat anyone on any given day. But that rotation has been up and down more than an elevator. The two teams split their home and home series during the regular season, and Chapel Hill should be rocking this weekend, as only about 100 miles separate the two schools. I’ll take the talent in this matchup, but certainly won’t be shocked if the Pirates pull off an upset.

Clemson (44-20) at Arizona State (47-12)
Arizona State has been my favorite to win it all for over a month now, and their waltz through the Tempe Regional last weekend did nothing to dissuade me. While Chris Dwyer and Tony Delk give the Tigers a formidable 1-2 punch at the front of the rotation, one of them is going to have to go up against the Nation’s most consistent pitcher—not named Strasburg, in Mike Leake. Leake has become the closest thing to an automatic ‘W’ in the tournament and should handle his first round opponent. While Clemson could squeak out a win in game#2, I just don’t believe the Tigers have the pitching depth to win this in a game #3.

You Have to Look Deeper to Find Pirate Motivation Behind the McLouth Deal

McLouth's gritty determination should make him a fan favorite in Atlanta

The Atlanta Braves shook up things fairly dramatically in the NL East on Wednesday as they not only released long-time fan favorite Tom Glavine, but they acquired all-star CF Nate McLouth from the Pirates for three minor leaguers. On the surface, it is a huge positive move by the Braves, as they not only acquire a first rate defensive CF with a solid bat, but they do so acquiring a very manageable three year contract and didn’t have to let go of their front line prospects to get him. But this is a deal that goes far deeper, with far greater impact than just McLouth for three prospects.

So why would Pittsburgh deal their 27yo, #3 hitter, all-star CF, who is under a very reasonable contract and is seemingly just entering his prime? From my perspective, there are three forces at work. First, the Pirates starting lineup prior to the trade was just barely over 26 years of age. Just this move, drops it below 26yo and makes it one of the youngest in baseball. Clearly this is a team that is not being built to win today. With McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Brad Lincoln and Jose Tabata all likely to be major contributors by the end of next season, although only 27yo, McLouth’s best years are likely to be wasted if he remains in Pittsburgh, so why not move him at the point of his highest value. The second reason that this makes sense for the Pirates is Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen is clearly one of the Minor League’s best talents and based on his performance this season, .303/.361/.493 in 200 AAA ABs, he is ready to contribute at the Major League level. The conventional wisdom was that McCutchen was going to force McLouth to RF and Moss to the bench, but this clears all obstacles in McCutchen’s path. Finally, the Pirates and Neal Huntington are looking to stamp a new face on the Pirates. They pick #4 in next week’s draft and are looking to follow up last year’s Alvarez selection with something that begins to erase the draft failures of the past. They are also believed to be looking to free up money to make a big splash in this July’s Latin American signing period. Dealing McLouth frees up a few more dollars and further erodes those links with the previous regime.

For the Braves, this seems like a no brainer. McLouth is exactly what they need right now in Atlanta--a solid CF defender , who can contribute offensively near the top of the order. I am not Bobby Cox, but I would slide McLouth into the #2-hole in front of Chipper and have one of the most solid #2-#6 lineups in the National League. But perhaps more importantly for the Braves, this gives Jordan Schafer a chance to go back down to Gwinnett and spend the time he obviously needs to fix the holes in his offensive game. Schafer whiffed 63 times in 167 At Bats and right now is clearly in over his head at the Major League level. With McLouth under contract for three more seasons, Schafer has plenty of time to develop. The icing on the cake for the Braves is that all of their top three pitching prospects: Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen and Cole Rohrbough and all of their top three hitting prospects: Jason Heyward, Jordan Schafer and Freddie Freeman, remain with the team.

So what did Pittsburgh get in return? Here is the real problem with the deal from my perspective. I am not in Huntington’s position, and I haven’t been testing the market for McLouth, but my gut tells me that he could have gotten more. It’s not a bad package, but I would have liked it better if it included at least one of the players from the list above. Gorkys Hernandez is the center-piece of the deal. A 21yo, CF, who has the tools to eventually force McCutchen to Right. While Hernandez isn’t as strong offensively as any of the CFs we have talked about thus far (McLouth, McCuthen and Schafer), his defense and speed make him the prototypical lead-off hitter…but he is likely nearly two years away. The next best player in the deal is the somewhat unheralded Jeff Locke. Locke is a 21yo, LHP, that possesses three league average pitches, including a low-90s fastball. I have significant concerns about how Locke has had increasing difficulty with control as he has moved up the ladder, and it is extremely prevalent (26BBs in 45 IP) in his Carolina League performance thus far this year. Finally there is Charlie Morton. I am not the biggest Morton fan, as he strikes me as the quintessential 4A pitcher who is clearly better than AAA, but hasn’t been able to translate that talent to Major League success. The Pirates are weak at the back end of the rotation with Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens, but I don’t see Morton as a better answer than say Tom Gorzelanny, and certainly isn’t as good of an option as I believe Brad Lincoln could be. So when it all gets boiled down, the Pirates dealt away the commitment of roughly $5 million per year and a link to the failures of the past for a potential Major League lead-off hitter and a pitcher with probably a 50/50 chance of ever contributing much at the Major League level. Unless you can call this addition by subtraction, I am not sure how this becomes of win for Pirate fans.

Hots and Nots - June 3, 2009

It will be Montero's bat, not glove, that determines his fate

With Matt Wieters finally in Baltimore and David Price pitching now in Tampa Bay, there are a lot of “who’s the best (fill in the blank) left in the Minor Leagues” questions to be answered. This week’s Hot list has two of the three players in the running for “who’s the best Catcher prospect”, as Jesus Montero (Yankees) heads the list and Carlos Santana (Indians) comes in at #10. Additionally, as we head into next’s weeks draft, there are four first round picks from last year’s draft on this week’s list.

Hot Hitters –

1) Jesus Montero, C, NYY – While I’d be sure to bet that Catcher isn’t his position by the time he gets to the Major Leagues, I’d bet just as surely that his bat will get him there. As you watch him destroy Florida State (FSL) League pitching, remember that Montero is just 19yo. A .463/.476/.780 line over the last two weeks leaves his OPS at .989 for the season.

2) Christopher Dennis, OF, MIL – This week’s “Who’s He?” Award winner, Dennis was a 13th round pick out of Canada in 2007. In his first two seasons he has posted solid numbers in both the Arizona (AZL) League and Pioneer (PIO) League, but he has shown a propensity to swing with everything on every pitch. After he injured his ankle in Spring Training, the 20yo’s season got off to a late start, but right now he is making up for lost time by feasting on Midwest (MWL) League pitching to the tune of .400/.464/740 over his last 50 ABs. His power is legit, and will only improve as he fills out, but his fate lies in his ability to cut down on his once every 3 AB strike out rate.

3) Todd Frazier, LF, CIN – With Votto and Encarnacion already in Cincinatti, and Alonso and Juan Francisco on the way, the Reds quickly decided to move Frazier to the OF this Spring. Frazier hasn’t let the fielding adjustment affect his hitting though, as his .500/.545/.825, over the last two weeks, leaves his OPS at .885 on the year.

4) Josh Donaldson, C, OAK – After smashing his way through the Northwest (NWL) League in his 2007 debut, Donaldson had a miserable 2008 until he was dealt to the Athletics at the trade deadline, as part of the Rich Harden deal. Donaldson has pretty much hit everything in sight since joining the Oakland organization. A .409/.500/.727 over his last 55 PAs leaves Donaldson with a .889 OPS on the year. Look for him to become the A’s primary catcher sometime in early 2010.

5) Eric Hosmer, 1B, KCR – Like Moustakas the year before, Hosmer got off to an ugly MWL start in his first full season. He’s righted the ship and looks to be on track to be all that he was supposed to be when the Royals made him the 3rd overall pick last June. .368/.478/.632 over the last two weeks.

6) Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN – Alonso was a hitting machine in college and should have been mentioned in the same breath with Alvarez, Posey, Beckham and Smoak, but concerns about his mobility, or lack thereof, always seemed to create separation. His FSL debut is now behind him, and he made his first Southern (SOL) League appearance on Monday with a 3-Hit, 2-Double performance. Over the last two weeks, Alonso has posted a .390/.457/.659 line.

7) Chris Heisey, OF, CIN – Heisey is the classic baseball ‘grinder’ who does everything well but nothing fantastic. The most impressive thing to me is that, while they have never been bad, his numbers have gotten better at each level he has played. The SOL, this season, is no exception. Heisey has posted a nearly unfathomable .531/.566/.939 over his last 55 PAs and now has a 1.102 OPS on the year. He is a tad old for the SOL and doesn’t profile as anything more than a 4th OF type, but he’s the kind of kid you want to root for.

8) Michael Baxter, OF, SDP – Another guy a tad old for his league with a 4th OF profile, Baxter has posted even more unbelievable numbers in the Texas (TXL) League than Heisey has in the SOL. Over his last 45 ABs, Baxter has put up a .600/.654/.867 line. You read that right, a .600 AVG!

9) James Darnell, 3B, SDP – Darnell was an ‘underdraft’ when the Padres took him with the 69th pick in last June’s draft. But not getting the proper attention is nothing new for Darnell who played in the shadows of Smoak, Havens and Chisenhall at South Carolina. A .409/.527/.727 over his last 55 PAs leaves him with a .973 OPS on the year. Most importantly, he has more walks than strikeouts. He clearly needs to move up and face better competition.

10) Carlos Santana, C, CLE – With Wieters now in Baltimore, Santana is my choice for the best Catching prospect still in the Minors (sorry Buster Posey), and is rapidly approaching best position prospect overall status. Santana has posted a .324/.468/.703 line over his last 50 PAs, bringing his season-to-date OPS to .990. His 35:25 BB:K ratio is one of the best in the Minors, and his defensive skills are making huge leaps forward with each passing week. As it now stands, Victor Martinez could become a full-time Firstbaseman by the beginning of next year.

11) Dustin Ackley, CF/1B, North Carolina – Ackley’s .714/.750/1.143 three game performance over the weekend, in the NCAA Regionals, not only was worthy of adding an eleventh spot to this week’s list, but it clearly solidifies him as the #2 talent available in next week’s draft. Entering this weekend’s Super Regional he has a .417/.520/781 on the year and looks likely to play CF in the Major Leagues.


Hot Pitchers –

1) Mat Latos, RHP, SDP – For me Latos has always been the billion dollar airport with the twenty-five cent control tower. A bad attitude and a bad work ethic have characterized his career for some time now, and his clearly awesome ‘stuff’ has taken a back seat to his approach. Maybe…just maybe, that is changing. Latos has picked up in AA where he left off in A-ball, and has now posted a 0.82 ERA, 0.636 WHIP over his first two TXL starts and now has given up 2 ER in 36 IP on the year.

2) Ross Seaton, RHP, HOU – For my money, Ross Seaton is one of the most underrated pitching prospects in the Minors. He lasted until the 3rd round last June, made nobody’s Top 100 list this winter, and entered the year with barely a whisper being said about him. Yet through ten South Atlantic (SAL) starts he has a 2.44 ERA and a 1.085 WHIP—as a 19yo! Not only does he throw in the low 90s already, but he has a 6’4 frame that will easily hold another 20lbs and add a few MPH to his fastball. More impressively this is a bright kid who is a true student of the game. A 0.64 ERA, 0.714 WHIP and a 9:0 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, is just an indication that he is warming up.

3) Kyle Drabek, RHP, PHI – In case there were still any doubters, the Phillies 1st round pick in 2006 is fully recovered from his 2007 Tommy John surgery. A 2.40 ERA, 0.867 WHIP with a 16:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves him with a 2.48 ERA and 74 Ks in 61 IP on the year.

4) Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SFG – For the last two seasons, at least one, of either Bumgarner or teammate Tim Alderson, has appeared on the ‘Hot’ list in all but 7 weeks. It’s Bumgarner’s turn this week after posting a 0.82 ERA, a .909 WHIP with a 13:3 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks. Apparently the Eastern (ESL) League poses no more of a challenge to him than did the CAL.

5) Brad Holt, RHP, NYM – It is easy to lose track of just how phenomenal Holt has been if you just glance at his season line of a 3.05 ERA and a 1.040 WHIP. But to get the proper perspective, you must remember that Holt yielded 11 baserunners and 9 ERs in a little over 3 IP in his first FSL start. Since then he has reeled off a string of 7 Starts where he has posted a 0.48 ERA, a 0.842 WHIP and a 45:6 K:BB ratio. He’s posted a 1.29ERA, a 0.929 WHIP and a 20:3 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks and looks to be ready to face AA hitters.

6) Evan Anundsen, RHP, MIL – Coming into the 2009 season, the Brewers 4th round pick in the 2006 draft has posted three solid, yet not spectacular seasons. It’s beginning to look like a breakout year for the 21yo. 12 straight shutout IP with a 0.750 WHIP and a 16:2 K:BB ratio leaves him with a 1.87 ERA on the year and FSL hitters are batting just .216 against him.

7) Wily Peralta, RHP, MIL – The 20yo Peralta repeats from last week and is starting to really turn some heads. Peralta has a 0.77 ERA, a 0.943 WHIP with a 20:3 K:BB ratio over his last three MWL appearances and he has now given up more than 2 ERs in only 1 appearance on the season.

8) Esmil Rogers, RHP, COL – After struggling as a SS, the Rockies converted Rogers to a pitcher in the 2006 season. He is raw and, up until now, has pitched mainly off of his low 90s fastball that has a lot of late movement. A solid change, and a little more work on the finer points of pitching are all that stand between Rogers and a spot in the Rockies’ rotation. A 1.98 ERA, 0.659 WHIP and a 13:3 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

9) Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL – It has taken a little longer than some Oriole fans would have liked for Matusz’ brilliance to show itself, but apparently that time has arrived. The 4th overall selection last June has posted a 1.29 ERA, a 0.810 WHIP and an 18:4 K:BB ratio over his last three starts, leaving him with a 2.37 ERA on the season. Eastern League hitters should be facing the left-hander any day now.

10) Tyler Clippard, RHP, WSN – For me it’s not Ty Clippard, it’s ‘the enigma that’s Ty Clippard’, as I have a great deal of difficulty figuring out what about him is the cause for him never really being given a Big League shot, now with two organizations. The Nationals surely could use him in the rotation, but are converting him to the bullpen this year. Don’t get me wrong, Clippard has responded just fine, posting a 1.19 ERA through 17 appearances on the year. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a 0.00 ERA, a 0.536 WHIP and a 9:1 K:BB ratio. The Nationals starting pitching has yielded a 5.58 ERA on the year, with 80% of their starting rotation having ERAs greater than 5.00…and Clippard is moving to the bullpen?


The Nots –

1) Niko Vasquez, SS, STL – Nobody expected Vasquez to hit a ton when the Cardinals selected him in the 3rd round last June. After a promising Appalachian League debut (APY) that saw him post an .878 OPS, there were those that held out hope. Forget about it! A .106/.125/.106 line for the last two weeks, leaves his season OPS at .529. He has gone 62 ABs without an XB hit.

2) Colten Willems, RHP, WSN – I was never a big fan of the Nationals 2006 first round pick, and I can safely say I’m still not. After opening the year with 11 straight IP without allowing an earned run, Wiilems has a 16.63 ERA over his last 4 starts. He has a 17.70 ERA, a 4.500 WHIP and a 1:5 K:BB ratio over his last three. Still not yet 21, he has plenty of time to turn things around, but for the moment he appears to be stuck in neutral.

3) Manny Pina, C, TEX – No player in the Minors has been more up and down than Pina. In eight weeks of ‘Hots and Nots’, Pina has been on the ‘Hot’ list three times and now finds himself ‘Not’ for the second straight week. Pina has posted a .091/.143/.091 over his last 35 PAs and has seen his once lofty OPS crash to .820 on the season. He has gone 66 ABs without an XB hit.

4) Kellen Kulbacki, OF, SDP – Kulbacki had off-season surgery to repair a torn labrum, and apparently he hasn’t shaken the rust off yet. A .143/.167/.171 line over the last two weeks is indicative of his .445 OPS that he has posted thus far. Hopefully he can have a repeat performance of last year’s second half, where he belted 19 HRs in the final 54 games, because right now he’s going to need it.

5) Sean O’Sullivan, RHP, LAA – The Angels really could use another Major League SP and there was hope earlier this year that O’Sullivan might step into that role, but bouts of wildness have doomed those chances for the time being. A 11.42 ERA, 2.308 WHIP and a 4:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves O’Sullivan with a 6.55 ERA on the season.

6) Tony Thomas, 2B, CHN – Thomas was blistering hot for the first six weeks of the season, but times have definitely changed. A .120/.185/.160 over the last two weeks leaves Thomas with a .837 OPS on the year. Thomas had 8 HRs in his first 32 games and now has gone 18 straight games without a HR.

7) Michael Bowden, RHP, BOS – With the Red Sox absolutely loaded with pitching talent, it is sometimes difficult for a top prospect that is seemingly ‘blocked’ to maintain their focus. That appears to be what is happening with Bowden, as he has posted a 9.58 ERA, a 2.129 WHIP and a 6:4 K:BB ratio over his last three starts.

8) Steve Hill, DH, STL – When ‘the man without a position’ and his lengthy swing was smashing bombs earlier in the season, it wasn’t hard to predict that there would be a major let down to follow. We’ve apparently found it. .125/.152/.219 with a 1:12 BB:K ratio over the last two weeks. He now has 40 Ks in 140 ABs on the season and isn’t likely to make any moves forward until he a) makes more consistent contact and b) finds a position that he can play without butchering it too badly.

9) Steven Johnson, RHP, LAD – Johnson really is a pitcher that is better than this list, and is really only on here because of one putrid start. Nonetheless, he has posted a 11.05 ERA and a 2.591 WHIP with a 2:3 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, and that is certainly worthy of a ‘Not’ performance.

10) Jordan Schafer, CF, ATL - While I realize he no longer is technically a prospect, Schafer belongs on this list because, if the Braves hadn’t been so desperate for a CF, he’d still be in Gwinnett, and probably enjoying a decent season. Instead Schafer has posted a .154/.195/.179 line over the last two weeks and is now sporting an even .600 OPS on the year. He is clearly overmatched right now and it’s time for the Braves to ‘Travis Snider’ him for a few months, if not the rest of the year. Just for comparison sake, Snider had roughly the same number of Major League ABs and a 150 points higher OPS when the Jays sent him down.

The Mailbag - June 2, 2009

Welcome to another edition of the Mailbag. We are deep into College World Series watching, Draft preparation and compiling our 2009 Division I Performance evaluations (which will be released later this week) so we have been doing more preparation than posting for the last few days. But we thought we’d take a brief break to answer a couple of reader questions.

The first question is from EvanF. Evan asks:

I have read where the upcoming draft is considered one of the weaker drafts. How weak is it?

I too have read where this is one of the weaker drafts, but I am not sure that we should just accept this as fact. I have been performing pre-draft rankings in various formats since 1999. I think it is important to note that there is a significant difference between pre-draft assessments and historical assessments. The 2006 draft is a great example of a draft that was considered very weak in pre-draft assessments, and, although it is too early to tell for sure, it doesn’t look like that will be how it will be viewed from a historical perspective. Nonetheless, there are some things we can determine by looking at the drafts of the last decade.

There are certainly some areas of weakness in this draft. For instance, especially on the heels of the 2008 draft, there is a tremendous dearth of hitting talent available in the 2009 version. But there are some unbelievable areas of strength as well. If you just focus on the very top of the draft, Strasburg is likely the best pre-draft #1 talent since at least Mark Prior, if not ever, and I happen to be extremely high on the total package that is Dustin Ackley. In fact, since 1999 the top 1-2, by pre-draft assessments are the following:

1) 2001 – Mark Prior and Joe Mauer
2) 1999 – Josh Beckett and Josh Hamilton
3) 2007 – David Price and Matt Wieters

Now Wieters wasn’t even selected second, so there was some debate on the top of the 2007 draft, but that is how we had it heading into draft day. If you compare Strasburg and Ackley with this list, they compare very favorably—probably somewhere between the drafts of 1999 and 2007. So if you are measuring the top of the draft, you certainly can’t call 2009 weak. Incidentally, when it comes to Ackley, I think he compares favorably with the college hitting talent that was selected last year, and if he ends up in CF as expected, a case could be made that as a total package he may be the best talent of a group that included Alvarez, Posey, Smoak, G. Beckham and Wallace.

Another area where I think the 2009 draft compares well is in the depth of available first round talent. Each year we rate the players based on a scale that attempts to determine first round certainty. Obviously 30 first round picks are made each year (32 this year), but typically there aren’t 30 certain first rounders. Using our rating system, the number of ‘certain’ first rounders has varied from a low of 14 in 2000 to a high of 32 in 2003. In most years the number is around 20, with 2007 having 20 and 2008 having 21. This year we have 25 players that receive a grade that would make them a ‘certain’ first rounder. So it certainly isn’t a draft that is weak in ‘first round’ talent.

Where the real weakness of this draft is in the #3-#7 spots, and it isn’t as much weak on potential as it is weak on certainty. If you look back at drafts from a historical perspective (we will do a Do-It-Yourself column on this later this summer), first round picks historically have less than a 30% chance of producing a successful major league career (defined as at least 3 Major League seasons above League average). Hitters have more certainty than pitchers, and college players have more certainty than high school players.

The strength of this draft is most definitely in its pitching, as I expect that more pitchers will be drafted in the first round this year than in another year in draft history. But remember, player valuations are a combination of both potential and probability. After Strasburg and Ackley, there are still a lot of high upside players in this draft: Donovan Tate, Tanner Scheppers, and the 5 High School Pitchers to name a few, but they come with high risk profiles: i.e. Donovan Tate is a highly athletic, toolsy, type that may still play football and/or go to college, Tanner Scheppers has a significant injury history and high school pitchers are the riskiest bets of all, right-handers even more so, and three of these five are righties.

So if I had to grade the 2009 draft based on talent available in it, it seems to me to be a fairly middle of the road draft that will likely produce a lot of surprises after the first two selections.

Our final question comes from ‘traderjohn’. John asks:

Now that Price and Wieters are both in the Majors, who is the Minor’s best prospect?

A great question that probably deserves more time than I can give it here, but here are my quick thoughts. In no particular order, the top talent still in the minors comes from this group: Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, Tommy Hanson, Jarrod Parker, Mike Stanton, Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana, Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak and Gordon Beckham. I assume I can’t choose Stephen Strasburg. I really love what Stanton did last year and think Smoak is the Minor’s best pure hitter, but, along with Montero, I don’t think they contribute enough defensively (either by position or talent) to truly be regarded as #1. I really am impressed with Santana and Beckham is ready for a bigger challenge, but I still worry about his ability to make consistent contact against major league pitchers with that swing, but neither of them is really a #1 for me either, so that would leave Heyward as the best position player prospect. The pitching is extremely tough, but, although I like them both a lot, I don’t think that Alderson or Hanson has the upside of the other two. In somewhat of a surprise, I think I prefer Parker to Bumgarner. If he stays injury free, I currently think Parker has the makings of the next big league ace, so in a bit of an upset, I will say that Jarrod Parker is currently the Minor’s best prospect.

That’s all for this week.