The Mailbag - July 9, 2009

While we encourage your comments on any of our pieces, The Mailbag is your chance to directly ask questions on whatever topics that you would like to get our opinions on, or to gather more information on how we do what we do. You can pose your questions as a comment to this article, or email them directly to us at baseballnumbers@ix.netcom.com.

This week's question comes from RASTROSFAN:

I was looking over your latest Top 100 Prospects and noticed, what I thought, were oversights. Can you explain the exclusion of Bud Norris P. Hou, Reid Brignac SS TB., and Brad Lincoln P. Pit?

Remember, all of our prospect lists are based on a combination of what we call the "Two C's"--Ceiling and Certainty. Its an upside issue with all three of them…Norris and Lincoln are mid- to back- of rotation guys...from a Ceiling perspective. They are in a big group with players like Troy Patton and David Hernandez of the Orioles. You will notice that Hernandez is the only one of those that makes the list, and that is because his dominance, as demonstrated by his K rate portends good things, but any of them, if given the right opportunity could have a productive Major League career. It’s not a knock on them, they are high floor, low ceiling guys.

Brignac is a similar story, though I have never been a fan of his bat, I just don’t see him ever being more than league average at best. In other words his Ceiling is just not that high. All three of these guys would certainly be on a Top 300 list, most likely between 125-200 somewhere. I think they all play in the Majors at some point, I think they rate high on the ‘Certainty’ side of the equation, I just think they are a little ‘low’ on the Ceiling side.

Hots and Nots - July 8, 2009

Matusz has allowed only 1 earned run in 4 Eastern League starts

The American League East is easily Baseball’s best division, and it has been for a few years now. The Baltimore Orioles finished last in 2008, and currently find themselves bringing up the rear. In fact, over the last 7 years they have the Division’s worst record, haven’t finished above 4th place, and have finished an average of more than 26 games out. You have to go all the way back to 1997 to even find a plus .500 finish. In other words, it’s been a tough go if you are an Orioles fan. But things are beginning to look a lot brighter in Baltimore.

Led by 23yo Adam Jones, four of the Oriole’s (Markakis -25, Weiters -23, Reimold-25) seven best offensive players are 25 or younger. 23yo, Brad Bergesen and 24yo, David Hernandez have quickly established themselves as two of Baltimore’s best pitchers. But the real strength of the Orioles, may lie in the near Major League-ready arms. 21yo, Chris Tillman is making the Eric Bedard trade look like robbery. 23yo, Jake Arrieta is in Norfolk, sporting a 2.90 ERA. 23yo, Troy Patton appears to have recovered from labrum surgery and has a 2.63 ERA. And 2008 1st round pick Brian Matusz, may be the best of the bunch. Through 4 Eastern (ESL) League starts, Matusz is sporting a 0.34 ERA, and heads up this Week’s ‘Hot’ List.



Hot Pitchers –

1) Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL - Matusz possesses some of the Minor League’s best secondary offerings, and right now is using it to tear through the ESL. The 4th overall pick last June, Matusz has posted a 0.44 ERA, 0.639 WHIP with a 22:5 K:BB ratio over his last three starts, and now has a 1.65 ERA on the season.

2) Marc Rzepcyzynski, LHP, TOR – We had Rzepcyzynski rated as the 5th best college pitcher available in the 2007 draft, but the scouts apparently saw it differently, as they Jays got him in the 5th round. Although he lacks a true out pitch, Rzepcyznski has excellent control over all four of his offering. Over his last three starts, including Tuesday night’s Major League debut, Rzepcyzynski has posted a 1.04 ERA, a 0.981 WHIP, with a 23:8 K:BB ratio, leaving his season ERA at 2.60.

3) Rickey Romero, LHP, TOR – Back to back Blue Jays, as the 24yo Romero has been lights out all season. While he technically used up his rookie eligibility a couple of starts ago, his 1.26 ERA, .984 WHIP and 19:8 K:BB ratio are worthy of a mention here.

4) Guillermo Moscoso, RHP, TEX – Acquired from the Tigers in December, the 25yo Moscoso is back starting in Oklahoma City after a brief stint as a reliever with the big league club. Although conventional wisdom indicates that he profiles best in relief, since returning to AAA Moscoso has a 0.64 ERA, a 0.643 WHIP and a 10:4 K:BB ratio in three appearances.

5) Matt Moore, LHP, TBR – A holdover from last week, Moore has been one of our favorites since the Rays ‘stole’ him in the 8th round of the 2007 draft. All of his pitches have tremendous late action, and, once he learns to harness his control, he will become one of the best arms in a very talented system. A 0.47 ERA, a 0.828 WHIP with a 26:6 K:BB ratio over his last three starts, leaves Moore with a 2.80 ERA on the season.

6) Jeurys Familia, RHP, NYM – This week’s ‘Who’s He?’ award winner, Familia is rapidly becoming one of the best arms in the Mets’ system. Signed as a 17yo out of the Dominican Republic in 2007, Familia posted a 2.79 ERA in the GCL in 2008. Challenged with a stint in full season ball as a 19yo, Familia has added a couple of mph to his fastball and is throwing with tremendous confidence. Over the last two weeks, Familia has a 0.73 ERA, a 0.730 WHIP and a 14:4 K:BB ratio, giving him a 2.80 ERA in the South Atlantic (SAL) League.

7) Scott Barnes, LHP, SFG – One of the most polished pitchers in the CAL, the 21yo Barnes has dominated lower level hitters since being drafted in the 8th round last June. Working on a stretch of 18 plus scoreless innings, where he has a 1.111 WHIP and a 27:4 K:BB ratio, Barnes has a 2.93 ERA on the season.

8) Chris Tillman, RHP, BAL – Acquired from the Mariners in the Erik Bedard trade, Tillman is rapidly becoming one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Barely a 21yo, Tillman is dominating International (INT) League hitters, allowing a .219 Average Against. Tillman has posted a 3.14 ERA, a 0.767 WHIP, with a 12:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks.

9) Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU – One of the most scrutinized picks of the 2008 draft, it looks like the Astros are going to end up with the last laugh. Only 18yo, and in the SAL, Lyles has posted a 2.12 ERA, a 1.235 WHIP, with a 20:5 K:BB ratio over his last three starts and now sports a 2.92 ERA for the season.

10) Andrew Cashner, RHP, CHN - Two weeks in a row at the back of this list, the Cubs first round pick in 2008, had a horrendous debut last summer. His start wasn’t a lot better this Spring, as Cashner struggled mightily with his control. However, since mid-May, Cashner has reduced his walk rate to 2.0 BB per 9IP. A 1.00 ERA, 0.839 WHIP and a 9:3 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks leaves his season ERA at 1.53. Even more impressive, after allowing more walks than strikeouts last season, Cashner now has a 40:15 K:BB ratio on the year.


Hot Hitters –

1) Derek Norris, C, WSN – We were one of the few places that had Norris as a Top 100 prospect entering the season, and Norris has not disappointed, as he has quickly established himself as one of the top 5 catching prospects in the Minors. A .362/.464/.787 over his last 60 PAs, leaves him with a 1.021 OPS on the season.

2) Alex Liddi, 3B, SEA – Since the first pitch of the season, no position player has more consistently performed this year than Liddi. Rarely do you find a player with the tools, the projectable frame, the work ethic and the production on the field, all in the same package, but that is exactly what Liddi brings to the table. A .444/.468/.822 over his last 50 PA’s gives him a 1.050 OPS on the season. While his strikeout rate is improved slightly (26% to 24%) over last season, this still remains Liddi’s biggest obstacle to elite prospect status.

3) Matt Dominguez, 3B, FLA – Already one of the Minor’s best fielding third basemen, Dominguez’s bat is also starting to come around. A .320/.414/.660 over his last 60 PAs, ups his OPS to .740 for the year. Remember, Dominguez is still a 19yo playing in Hi-A.

4) Sebastian Valle, C, PHI – The Phillies signed Valle as a 16yo out of Mexico in 2006 and sent him to the Dominican Summer (DSL) League in 2007, where we had him with the third best age-adjusted offensive performance. After getting off to a fast start in the GCL last June, Valle limped home with a .748 OPS. The Phillies, for some reason, decided to start him in the SAL this year, where his struggles continued. When the short season leagues opened, Valle was shipped to Williamsport of the NYP and has seen a change of fortune. The 19yo has posted a .406/.475/.719, through 40 NYP PAs.

5) Jonathan Galvez, 2B, SDP – Galvez commanded one of the highest bonuses given to a Latin American 16yo in 2007, when the Padres inked him to a $750,000 deal. The Padres sent him to the DSL last year, where he posted a solid, but not spectacular performance. 55 Arizona League ABs this year have been eye-opening, as Galvez has posted a .400/.526/.578.

6) Anthony Gose, OF, PHI - Admittedly, Gose doesn’t profile well as the type of player we like. He is limited defensively to LF, is more tools than production, and strikes out way too often given his limited power. All that being said, we are intrigued, both by his 47 SBs this year, and the fact that he seems to be holding his own offensively as an 18yo in the SAL. While not predicting he will reach it, we can see a Lonnie Smith type ceiling for him. Over the last two weeks, Gose has posted a .462/.533/.590 and now has a .745 OPS on the season.

7) James McOwen, LF, SEA – This is one of the rare times that a nearly 24yo in the California (CAL) League will appear on this list. While, given his age and defensive limitations, McOwen is not a ‘prospect’, he currently sports a 44-game hitting streak that is the longest in the Minors since 1954 and that rates a ‘hot’ spot. Over the last two weeks, McOwen has posted a .480/.519/.820 and now has a .913 OPS on the year.

8) Greg Halman, OF, SEA – The Minor League’s streakiest player is on another run. After nearly a month of absolutely abysmal play, Halman seems to have things back on track. When he’s hot he’s hot and over his last 63 PAs, Halman is on fire, posting a .339/.381/.814. More impressive is that while Halman has fanned nearly once every 2.5 ABs on the season, he has fanned only once every 4 ABs during this stretch.

9) Austin Romine, C, NYY – One of the most underrated catching prospects in baseball, the 20yo Romine was the Yankees’ 2nd round pick in 2007. He has the complete package for a catcher, including tremendous baseball savvy. Over the last two weeks, Romine has posted a . 290/.371/.581 and has a .801 OPS for the year.

10) Roger Kieschnick, OF, SFG – Selected by the Giants in the 3rd round last June, Kieschnick didn’t make his professional debut until this year. Making up for lost time, Kieschnick has been on fire in the California (CAL) League. A .318/.400/.750 over the last two weeks, gives the 22yo a .905 OPS on the year.


The Nots –

1) Brett Cecil, LHP, TOR – Cecil can’t seem to get over the hump in moving from AAA to the Majors. Major League hitters are batting .344 against him in two stints this year and over his last three starts he has a 14.73 ERA, a 3.682 WHIP with a 6:8 K:BB ratio.

2) Adys Portillo, RHP, SDP – So far, it hasn’t been a good year for the 2008 class of Latin American 16yos. Michel Ynoa has battled arm problems and has yet to make his debut. Juan Duran went 22 ABs before getting his first hit. In 18 games, Yorman and Rafael Rodriguez are still without an extra base hit. And Adys Portillo is getting lit up in the Arizona League after signing for $2.0MM last July. Through 3 starts, Portillo has posted a 8.10 ERA, a 2.500 WHIP and a 7:7 K:BB ratio.

3) Aaron Bates, 1B, BOS – Bates has never been more than a fringe prospect, but at the moment even that status appears to be in doubt. A .088/.162/.118 over the last two weeks, leaves the 25yo Bates with a .808 OPS on the year.

4) Kyler Burke, OF, CHN – After posting solid months in May and June, where he had an OPS above .830, Burke has faded badly over the last two weeks, where he has gone .136/.224/.136. To make matters worse, he hasn’t had an extra base hit since June 19th.

5) Nick Schmidt, LHP, SDP – The 23yo Schmidt completely dominated Midwest (MWL) League hitters over the first 2 ½ months. Unfortunately, as we always point out, results by older players against younger opponents don’t typically mean a whole lot and Schmidt has found the going in the CAL a bit more difficult. He’s posted a 11.48 ERA, 2.025 WHIP with a 8:10 K:BB ratio over his first three Hi-A starts.

6) Brad Holt, RHP, NYM – After laying an egg in his season opening start, Holt strung together 8 straight excellent starts in the Florida State (FSL) League, earning him a promotion to Binghamton. Unfortunately, the 22yo Holt is finding the ESL quite a bit more challenging. Over his last three starts, Holt has a 12.46 ERA and a 1.731 WHIP. His ERA since the promotion stands at 8.40.

7) Ty Worthington, OF, ARZ – Worthington is a ‘toolsy’, athletic, project that the Diamondbacks took on with a 5th round pick in 2007. Medical issues have limited both his playing time and his productivity. In his third season, but still in short season ball, Worthington is once again struggling. A .100/.156/.133 over the last two weeks, leaves him with a .406 OPS in 50 Northwest (NWL) League PAs.

8) Xavier Avery, OF, BAL – Another of those ‘toolsy’, athletic types (is it clear yet that I don’t like them), Avery has struggled in his first look at full-season ball. A .159/.196/.182 leaves his OPS at .644 on the season. At only 19yo, there is still time for the tools to turn into production…but I remain skeptical.

9) Efrain Nieves, LHP, MIL – The 19yo Nieves entered the season seemingly poised for a breakout, after adding a couple of MPH to his fastball, but things haven’t worked out that way, as Nieves continues to miss his spots within the strikezone—allowing opposing hitters to tee off on him to the tune of a .321 Average Against. Over the last two weeks, Nieves has posted a 15.00 ERA, a 2.667 WHIP and a 4:6 K:BB ratio, leaving him with a 6.49 ERA on the season.

10) Angel Villalona, 1B, SFG – While we aren’t in ‘danger’ territory yet, there are beginning to be a number of concerns surrounding Villalona. Still just 18yo, and already in the California (CAL) League, is a positive sign, but at 6’3”, 205 lbs, his increasing immobility continues to raise the bar for his bat. A .167/.167/.188 over the last two weeks has dropped his OPS to .704 on the year and 73 Ks in 292 ABs doesn’t make one feel any better.

Around the Bases - July 3, 2009

Matusz has allowed only 1 ER in his last 40 innings

You can cross these names off your shopping list…
The biggest names in the International Market to sign on the first day were Wagner Mateo, OF signing with the Cardinals for $3.1MM; Gary Sanchez, C signing with the Yankees for $2.8MM; and Jose Pena, RF signing with the Cardinals in the day's best bargain for $400k.


Speaking of International Players…
Keep your eye on 17yo, Grabiel Hernandez, SS of the Cardinals, who went 4 for 4 yesterday with a walk and hit for the cycle. Over his last 8 games he has posted a .469/.553/.750 and is now 3rd in the Dominican Summer League in AVG, 4th in OBP, and 4th in SLG.

Maybe he really is more than a Relief Pitcher…
When the Cardinals drafted former wunderkind, Robert Stock, in the second round a few weeks ago, it was a little bit of a surprise. When they told everyone they were drafting him as a Catcher not as a Relief Pitcher where he experienced most of his collegiate success, it was a shock. But after yesterday’s 2 for 3 with a home run and a double, his OPS stands at 1.031…and the baseball world is scratching their heads and going hmmmmm.

I guess this isn’t Fort Wayne anymore Toto…
After Nick Schmidt proved to the world that he was fully recovered from 2007 Tommy John surgery by destroying Midwest League hitters to the tune of a 2.79 ERA in 13 appearances, things appeared to be looking up for his once uncertain career. Two starts in the California League haven’t gone so well. Yesterday, in 1 2/3 innings, he yielded 7 Runs, on 5 hits and 4 walks, leaving his ERA at 12.91.

They just keep coming…
The Braves have already graduated Kris Medlin and Tommy Hanson to the Majors this season, but 22yo, left-hander, Scott Diamond, doesn’t intend to be forgotten. Diamond has a 3.21 ERA through 15 Southern (SOL) League starts, after last night’s 8 scoreless inning performance where he struck out 8, while allowing 2 hits and 3 walks.

And Oakland isn’t much different…
Already possessing one of the Major’s youngest rotations, not including Dana Eveland waiting in AAA, the A’s 2007 first round pick, James Simmons is making some noise. Yesterday he threw a complete game, allowing 1run, on 6 hits and a walk.

Ugly performance of the day…
Belongs to Matt McBride of the Indians, who went 0 for 7 with two strikeouts in a doubleheader.

I think he’s almost ready…
The Orioles’ 22yo, left-hander, Brian Matusz threw 7 scoreless innings, allowing 4 hits and 2 walks, while fanning 6. Through 3 Eastern (ESL) League starts he now has a 0.49 ERA and has fanned 21 in 18 IP.

We’ve mentioned it before but…
Since he keeps posting solid numbers, we thought we’d mention again how much we really like the Angels 7th round pick from last June’s draft, Will Smith. The 19yo tossed 7 scoreless innings yesterday, allowing but 2 hits and a walk, while fanning 6. This gives him a 3.26 ERA in 13 Midwest (MWL) League starts.

Breaking News: Cuba's Aroldis Chapman Defects

Chapman is generally regarded as one of the best International players

According to cubeancuentro.com, 21yo, left-hander, Aroldis Chapman, has defected from the Cuban National team at a tournament in the Netherlands. For those of you not familiar with Chapman, he was the Cuban National Team’s best pitcher, who made a big splash by hitting 100mph against Japan in this past Spring’s World Baseball Classic. Chapman is generally regarded as the second best International talent, not presently under Major League contract, behind only Japan’s Yu Darvesh.

Against Australia, in Cuba’s opening WBC game, Chapman went 4 innings, allowing 1 run while fanning 7, throwing 45 of 67 pitches for strikes. In four seasons in the Cuban Baseball League he has posted a 3.65 ERA, fanning approximately 10 batters per IP, but walking nearly 6 batters per IP. In the most recent season, he went 11-4, with a 4.03 ERA, 62 BB, and 130Ks, in 118IP.


The book on Chapman is that he has a fastball that ‘sits’ in the upper 90’s, reaching more than 100MPH. He has a slider, with tremendous late, downward, movement and a mediocre change. He throws from a very repeatable ¾ delivery, but he lacks requisite control on all of his pitches. He is a project, who would likely spend a season in AA, if/when he were to sign a Major League contract. He has the ceiling of a front of the rotation stud, but if he doesn’t further develop his secondary offerings, he could easily profile as a power late inning guy. Given his skill set, he would certainly rank among the Top 50 prospects in the game.

Around the Bases - July 1, 2009

Gallardo has quickly become the Brewers ace

Maybe a trade is in order…
After last night’s 3 for 3 with a home run and 2 walks, Pirates’ secondbase prospect, Jim Negrych, may want to push for a trade to the Phillies. In 8 games at Reading’s First Energy Stadium, Negrych has posted a .500/.615/.750, elsewhere in the Eastern League he is .248/.332/.311.

Good night to be 23yo and a MLB pitcher…
The Nationals’ Jordan Zimmerman (6IP, 2ER, 6H, 1BB, 6K), the Orioles’ Brad Bergensen (8IP, 1ER, 4H, 0BB, 6K) and the Brewers’ Yovanni Gallardo (7IP, 1ER, 5H, 2BB, 12K), all spent yesterday celebrating their youth.

Of course 19yo and in AA isn’t bad either…
At least if you are the Marlins’ Mike Stanton, who went 2 for 5, with 2 homeruns, as the Southern League’s youngest position player.

And even younger…
The Yankees’ Jesus Montero has 20 days more youth than Stanton, as the Eastern League’s youngest position player. He went 2 for 3 with a double, a home run, and a walk, and is now posting a .937 OPS through 20 games.

Ugly line of the day…
…belongs to the Rangers’ Greg Golson, who went 0 for 6, while fanning four times.

Hots and Nots - July 1, 2009

An invasion of European players may well depend on the likes of Alex Liddi

It is hard enough being a 20yo baseball prospect trying to claw your way to the big leagues. It is even harder when you carry the hopes of your nation along for the ride. But few players have the possibility of creating paradigm shifts along with their success. Yet that is exactly what the skinny kid from San Remo, Italy faces every time he steps on the field. Alex Liddi, you see, may represent the first wave of what could well turn into an invasion of European players to the Major League game.

When the Mariners signed Liddi, for $55,000, as a 17yo, in the fall of 2005, he was one of four players signed from the inaugural Major League Baseball European academy in Tirrenia, Italy. Only he and the Cubs’ Alessandro Maestri remain. As July 2nd approaches, and with it the start of the International signing period, players like Germany’s 16yo centerfielder, Max Keppler, are eagerly watching Liddi’s 2009 success. For with it may come a flood future European-born players to the Major Leagues. Thankfully, for the Europeans, they have a player of tremendous character and work ethic to pioneer their cause and it is Liddi that sits atop this week’s list.

Hot Hitters –

1) Alex Liddi, 3B, SEA – We have been leading the Liddi bandwagon since the beginning of the season. Rarely do you find a player with the tools, the projectable frame, the work ethic and the production on the field, all in the same package, but that is exactly what Liddi has brought to the table all season long. A .395/.435/.767 over his last 50 PA’s gives him a 1.043 OPS on the season. Liddi will still need to continue to improve upon his roughly 25% strikeout rate as he moves up the ladder, but he has come from off the radar to one of the top prospects in the game with his performance this season.

2) Lance Zawadzki, SS, SDP – Zawadzki is another of those players who is putting together a breakout season. He was a 4th round pick out of NAIA Lee University in Tennessee in 2007 and has put up respectable numbers in two previous seasons. His success in the Texas (TXL) League was crucial to his prospect status and he has certainly not disappointed. A .510/.590/.745 over his last 62 PAs, leaves him with a .950 OPS on the year.

3) Tyler Flowers, C, CHA – Flowers was the centerpiece in this past winter’s Javier Vazquez trade. With A.J. Pierzynski getting a bit long in the tooth, the White Sox are hoping that Flowers will be able to step into that roll by 2011. Flowers has posted a .361/.489/.806 over the last two weeks and now has his OPS at .965 on the year. We continue to caution against too much optimism in Flower’s ability to remain at Catcher over the long haul, but his bat should play most anywhere.

4) Derrik Gibson, 2B/SS, BOS – Gibson, perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Casey Kelly’s mound success, was the Red Sox second round choice in the 2008 draft. He has the glove, the speed and the bat to be an impact middle infielder at the next level, and has gotten off to a scorching (.471/.600/.735) start in his New York-Penn (NYP) debut.

5) Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL – After a somewhat slow start, Freeman is picking right up where he left off last season. A .378/.462/.622 over his last 55 PAs, leaves the 19yo with a .859 OPS on the season.

6) Jeff Bianachi, SS, KCR – After the Royals made him their 2nd round pick in 2005, Bianchi put up, what was arguably, the best debut by any high school player selected that year. Injuries limited him to a mere 42 ABs the following season, and he struggled in the two seasons following that. Now 22yo, he is once again playing the way he did after the Royals drafted him. A .477/.521/.659 over his last 50 PA’s, leaves him with an .857 OPS on the season.

7) Roger Kieschnick, OF, SFG – Selected by the Giants in the 3rd round last June, Kieschnick didn’t make his professional debut until this year. Making up for lost time, Kieschnick has been on fire in the California (CAL) League. A .357/.400/.786 over the last two weeks, gives the 22yo a .891 OPS on the year.

8) Kent Matthes, OF, COL – The 2009 NCAA home run champ, slipped to the Rockies in the 4th round of last month’s draft. Despite being a senior, we felt Matthes was one of the top 10 college position players available in the draft and Matthes, so far, is making us look good, with a .429/.490/.643 Northwest (NWL) League debut. At 22yo, he needs to be moved up to Ashville very soon.

9) Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX – Recovering from a strained oblique, Smoak has wasted little time restarting the ‘Arlington express’. After a two game rehab in the Arizona (AZL) League where he murdered the younger pitchers, Smoak hasn’t been any more kind to the hurlers in the Texas League. Through 9 games in his return, Smoak has posted a .424/.486/.667 and now has a .986 OPS on the year. As the Rangers battle for a Western Division title, it is this author’ s opinion that Smoak would prove to be a more productive option than Chris ‘swing and miss’ Davis.

10) Rene Tosoni, OF, MIN – A draft-and-follow from the 2005 draft, Tosoni had compiled two solid, yet not spectacular, seasons prior to this year. Only turning 22yo on Thursday, and playing in the Eastern (ESL) League, Tosoni is producing similar results. A .354/.446/.604 over the last two weeks, leaves his OPS at .886 on the year.


Hot Pitchers –

1) Mike Montgomery, LHP, KCR – The Royals have a solid group of A-ball pitchers (Duffy, Melville, Montgomery, etc), and for our money, the 19yo Montgomery is the best of the bunch. Turning 20yo today, Montgomery has only allowed more than 1 earned run, in only one of his 8 starts this year. A 1.54 ERA, with a 0.429 WHIP and a 14:1 K:BB ratio over his last two starts, gives him a 1.93 ERA on the year.

2) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – The Tiger fans had to wait a while to see the fruits of their 2007 5th round pick, because he blew out his elbow shortly after signing. But the wait has been worth it, as Crosby has posted a 0.00 ERA, a 0.533 WHIP and a 11:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, and has a 3.39 ERA through 15 Midwest (MWL) starts. With 74 K’s in 63IP, Crosby has arguably been the MWL’s best pitcher this season.

3) Matt Moore, LHP, TBR – Moore has been one of our favorites since the Rays ‘stole’ him in the 8th round of the 2007 draft. All of his pitches have tremendous late action, and, once he learns to harness his control, he will become one of the best arms in a very talented system. A 0.77 ERA, 0.771 WHIP, with a 17:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, gives him a 3.14 ERA on the year.

4) Trevor Bell, RHP, LAA – People forget that Bell was a first round pick by the Angels in 2005. After four solid, but unspectacular, seasons, he had somewhat disappeared from the radar screen. Still just 22yo, Bell put on a show in 11 Texas (TXL) League starts that earned him a promotion to the PCL, where he has been even better. Through three PCL starts, Bell has a 0.39 ERA, a 0.478 WHIP and a 12:2 K:BB ratio.

5) Hector Rondon, RHP, CLE – Rondon continues his steady climb up the prospect charts, as 14 1/3 scoreless innings leaves the 21yo with a 2.29 ERA through 12 Eastern League starts. Rondon placed #31 in our latest prospect rankings.

6) Kyle Drabek, RHP, PHI – Drabek has been dealing all year long and really seems to have put his career back on track, after 2007 Tommy John surgery. A 1.76 ERA, 0.717 WHIP and a 14:1 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves the 21yo with a 2.46 ERA on the year.

7) T.J. House, LHP, CLE – Taken in the 16th round, but signed for second round money, in the 2008 draft, House didn’t make his debut until this year. Only 19yo, House has posted a 0.69 ERA, 0.846 WHIP, with a 11:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks. He now has a 2.48 ERA through his first 15 professional starts.

8) Luke French, LHP, DET – An 8th round pick in 2004, prior to this year, French had posted 5 non-descript seasons. 2009, though, has been a breakout for French. A 1.80 ERA, 0.733 WHIP, with a 18:2 K:BB ratio over his last three starts, leaves French with a 2.98 ERA on the year and has earned him a Big League call-up.

9) Andrew Cashner, RHP, CHN - The Cubs first round pick in 2008, had a horrendous debut last summer. His start wasn’t a lot better this Spring, as Cashner struggled mightily with his control. However, since mid-May, Cashner has reduced his walk rate to 2.2 BB per 9IP. A 0.00 ERA, 0.833 WHIP and a 10:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks leaves his season ERA at 1.50.

10) Brandon Hynick, RHP , COL – A 14 inning scoreless streak and the PCL’s first perfect game since June of 2007, earned Hynick this spot, as his 2.37ERA, 0.789 WHIP with an 11:2 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves him with a 3.50 ERA on the year.


The Nots –

1) Michael Almanzar, 3B, BOS – The highest priced Latin American signing of 2007, has been significantly overmatched in his brief career. At 18yo, it’s still difficult to get a read on him due to the fact that he has been so much younger than his competition, but things are beginning to get scary. The Red Sox sent him to Lowell when the short-season leagues began, but the results continue to spiral. A .091/.118/.091 over the last two weeks gives Almanzar a .520 OPS for the year.

2) Bobby Parnell, RHP, NYM – After putting together a solid April and May that had his ERA at 2.11 entering June, the 24yo Parnell had the wheels fall off last month, allowing 12 ERs in 8 IP, leaving his season ERA at 5.22.

3) Duke Welker, RHP, PIT – Some organizations just continue to fail, regardless of who is at the helm. After Huntington came out last week and admitted that the Pirates may have made a mistake in signing Ian Snell to a 3-year, $8 million, deal last Spring, I am officially declaring their 2007 2nd round round pick a ‘bust’. In three years, the 23yo University of Arkansas alum can’t get out of Lo-A. A 19.29 ERA, 3.643 WHIP with a 4:10 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves Welker with an 0-8 record and a 5.59 ERA through 15 South Atlantic (SAL) League starts. Remember, Daniel Moskos was their 2007 first round pick.

4) Wilkin Ramirez, OF, DET – The 23yo Ramirez is looking more and more to me like AAA may be his ceiling. A .104/.189/.125 over the last two weeks, leaves his OPS at .683 on the year.

5) Angel Villalona, 1B, SFG – Don’t make any mistakes by thinking his appearance on the ‘Not’ list is some sort of condemnation, but there are beginning to be a number of concerns surrounding Villalona. Still just 18yo, and already in the California (CAL) League, is a positive sign, but at 6’3”, 205 lbs, his increasing immobility continues to raise the bar for his bat. A .182/.182/.182 over the last two weeks has dropped his OPS to .726 on the year. 65 Ks in 265 ABs doesn’t make one feel any better.

6) Alex Amarista, 2B, LAA – Amarista, at 5’8”, 150lbs, the 20yo Amarista isn’t going to be given a lot of margin for error. A .083/.083/.083 over the last two weeks and only 1 XBH in his last 64 ABs isn’t the kind of numbers he needs.

7) Brett Marshall, RHP, NYY – Marshall received a larger bonus than any Yankee 2008 draftee. Making his full season debut in the SAL, Marshall has walked too many and missed two few bats to make up for, what I consider to be, fringe average stuff. The Yankees lover his raw power, but I have severe reservations as to whether he will ever be able to harness it, given the effort involved in his delivery. A 12.54 ERA, 1.821 WHIP over the last two weeks, leaves Marshall with a 5.45 ERA on the year.

8) Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN – Sometimes I feel like the President of the ‘What is there to like about Drew Stubbs?’ club. As a former first round pick, the Reds will continue to give Stubbs chances, but in four seasons, he has never posted an OPS higher than .788. A .145/.203/.164 over the last two weeks puts his OPS this year at .728

9) Danny Carroll, OF, SEA – After the Mariners made him their 3rd round selection in 2007, Carroll offered glimpses of promise with his AZL debut. Unfortunately, it has been downhill for the 20yo since. A .130/.200/.174 over the last two weeks leaves him with a .419 OPS on the year.

10) Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, MIL – Regular readers already understand that I have never been a huge fan of Jeffress and his 100mph fastball that sails all over the park. 55 walks in 60 innings this year and a demotion back to the Florida State (FSL) League did little to further endear him. Now, after strike two in baseball’s drug program, Jeffress will miss 100 games that will take him into at least May of next year. If you choose not to write him off at this point, it’s your own fault.

Breaking Down the International Signing Period

At 16yo, Mateo has already been a baseball hero in the streets of the Dominican for a number of years

A day that passes in relative obscurity by all but those that are the die hardest of the prospect watchers, Thursday will signify the beginning of the International signing period in Major League baseball. This is that period where millions of dollars will be shipped from the shores of the U.S. to the families and buscones of 16yo boys in tiny Latin American countries.

This year, the talent of crop may be the deepest ever. While last July left us with perhaps 6-9 players that would have been worthy of being selected in the first two rounds of that June’s Amateur draft, this year there are more than double that number with the requisite skills. More significantly, while last year’s talent was headed by two pitchers, this year, the top 7 to 8 players are position players, which should help supplement what was a weak position player draft. Not only is this group deep in talent, but the top two names available are likely the best hitting talents to come out of Latin America since at least 2007 when the Giants signed Angel Villalona and the Yankees grabbed Jesus Montero, but Miguel Sano could quite possibly be the best 16yo signed since the Marlins grabbed Miguel Cabrera a decade ago.

A couple of notes about the list, first a special thank you to Kiley McDaniel at Baseball Prospectus who has made video of many of the top players available from his recent trip to the Dominican Republic. Second, keep in mind that we adhere to a couple of philosophies about the International talent market: 1) While hitters are safer bets than pitchers, hitters with advanced control of the strike zone are safer bets than those that are free swinging power hitters, and we therefore place a premium on them. 2) We are evaluating 16yos. They have the potential to change physically in significant fashion, so projecting their eventual size and therefore eventual defensive position becomes difficult. We therefore place premiums on players we feel have the requisite defensive skills to stay in the middle of the diamond, while discounting those players that are already locked into a corner OF or 1B position. Our experience from watching this market for more than a dozen years has taught us that certainty yields better results than ceiling when assessing this talent. These conclusions have allowed us to favor players like Kelvin DeLeon, Jefry Marte and Eduardo Sosa over Michael Almanzar in 2007 and Julio Morban over Yorman and Rafael Rodriguez last year.

The following list consists of the players that we feel are talented enough to have been selected in the first two rounds of the June draft had they been available, along with the approximate position that we feel they would have been selected.

1) Miguel Sano, SS/3B, Dominican Republic (Top 10 pick) – Sano is still dealing with some age verification requirements that may drag out his actual signing, but, provided everything checks out, he is the best talent available since 1999. At 6’3”, 190lbs he is expected to outgrow SS and end up at either 3B or RF, but he can flat out rake, showing the best control of the strikezone by a 16yo Latin American talent in recent memory. The Pirates would have made him their pick at #4 if he was in June’s draft, and most clubs would have taken him in the Top 10.

2) Wagner Mateo, CF, Dominican Republic (Top 10) – Only a notch behind Sano, Mateo has been somewhat of a ‘folk’ hero in the Dominican where his advanced skills are the subject of lore. More power and more speed than Sano, Mateo is one of those ‘toolsy’ type players that are loaded with projection. For my money, he is a better 16yo talent than any previous player since Fernando Martinez in 2005. Mateo has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Cardinals.

3) Guillermo Pimentel, LF, Dominican Republic (Top 20) – Pimentel could have possibly challenged the top 2 names on this list, but nagging injuries have kept him under the radar for the last few months. Pimentel possesses a smooth stroke that produce substantial raw power, and leaves little concern for his ability to hit. A minus arm and only average speed though will likely leave him in leftfield and hence he ranks third on this list.

4) Jose Vinicio, SS, Dominican Republic (1st round) – One of the few Latin American talents that both projects to stay at SS and possesses plus hitting skills. Vinicio is likely to end up with 15-20 home run power as a switch hitting shortstop with above average speed. His is considered a better SS prospect than either Carlos Triunfel or Wilmer Flores were when they came out.

5) Gary Sanchez, C, Dominican Republic (1st round) – I almost typed New York Yankees when I was putting in the country of Origin, because Sanchez has been tied to the Yankees seemingly forever. Unlike Jesus Montero, Sanchez is expected to potentially remain at Catcher for the long-haul. He is renowned for his batting practice displays, but many teams seem wary of whether those skills transfer well to game environments. He has as much upside as perhaps any on this list, but a few more questions than most.

6) Jose Pena, RF, Domincan Republic (1st round) – Pena has enough talent that would have likely gotten him selected in the first round in June. I like Pena perhaps more than most for a couple of reasons: 1) He is likely the most advanced hitter outside of Sano and 2) He is the only one of the top Latin American prospects that remains in school, which validates the stories on his exceptional make-up. At 6’4, 195lb, Pena could easily develop into the best power hitter in this class.

7) Jean Carlos Batista, SS, Dominican Republic (Top 50) – Batista is another of those that we are a little higher on than most. A true switch-hitting shortstop, with tremendous athleticism, Batista possesses the combination of hitting and fielding ability that was rare in this past June’s draft. We like him very similarly to, and would rate him only slightly below, Jiovani Mier who was selected 21st overall.

8) Juan Urbina, LHP, Venezuela (Top 50) – Unlike last year when Michel Ynoa and Adys Portillo were the top two International talents, this year Urbina is the top pitcher on this list at #8. Personally I feel that it is an up year for hitters, moreso than a down year for pitchers, but Urbina is a sizeable notch below Ynoa and Portillo. A projectable, 6’2”, left-hander, Urbina already throws a low 90s fastball, a solid breaking ball, and shows excellent command and feel for both.

9) Rossel Herrera, SS/OF, Dominican Republic (Top 50) – Already at 6’4’, 180lbs, it seems unlikely that Herrera won’t eventually move off of SS and the best guess at the moment is that he will take his plus arm and solid speed to CF or RF. Herrera is tremendously athletic, and while he looks to have a decent bat, there are concerns about the holes in his swing.

10) Noel Arguelles, LHP, Cuba (Top 50) – Arguelles doesn’t really fit as he is a 19yo Cuban exile who has spent the past year in the Domincan and is already signable. Nonetheless it seemed like a good spot to talk about him. He possesses a low 90’s fastball with an advanced feel for pitching and could easily step into some team’s AA rotation.

11) Chesler Cuthbart, 3B, Nicaragua (Top 50) – Cuthbart is likely the best position prospect to come out of Nicaragua since…I don’t know since who. There have only been three Nicaraguan Major League players since 1999 and none (Devern Hansack, Evereth Cabrera & Vincente Padilla) were significant talents. Cuthbart has a body that reminds people of Andre Dawson, but a stiffness in his swing that causes significant concern. The good news is that there are few questions as to whether or not he can stay at 3B.

12) Jurrickson Profar, SS/RHP, Venezuela (2nd Round) – Personally I’d avoid Profar like the plague, but someone is likely to give him a high six-figure bonus. He has more talent as a pitcher than a position player, yet is insisting on playing SS with whomever he signs. As a RHP he’d be a top 10 talent, as a SS he wouldn’t make this list.

13) Luis Jolly, LF, Domincan Republic (2nd Round) – His deficiencies are in the field, but his bat looks worthy of someone taking a chance on him and hoping that he develops enough power to become an everyday LF.

14) Jacob Beltre, 1B, Dominican Republic (2nd Round) – Arguably the best power hitter on this list, Beltre is a behemoth at 6’5”, 210lbs, and seems relegated to 1B. There is a lot to like with his bat, but huge concerns about his agility and will come with significant risk.

15) Edgar Ferrera, LHP, Dominican Republic (2nd Round) – Ferrera is the best Dominican arm available, touching the mid-90s with his fastball. Still much more of a thrower than a pitcher at this stage, he will be signed off of projectability.

16) Santo Luis Aybar, SS/3B, Dominican Republic (2nd Round) – A typical 16yo Latin American prospect, Aybar has some skills, a lot of projection and a lot of flaws. His approach to defense will make a move to 3B or OF likely.

17) Jose Iglesias, SS, Cuba (2nd round) – The other 19yo, that defected with Arguelles, Iglesias appears to be a talent with similar upside to Yuniesky Betancourt.

18) David Perez, RHP, Dominican Republic (2nd Round) – Perez has a fastball that sits in the high 80’s, with a respectable curve and changeup. He is more polished than most latin American prospects.

19) Victor Payano, LHP, Dominican Republic (2nd Round) – Payano throws a high 80’s fastball and has potentially four pitches in his arsenal. Like Perez, he is more polished at this stage than the typical 16yo Latin pitcher.

20) Wilfredo Solano, 3B, Venezuela (2nd Round) – To me, Solano looks like he has a bat that will play at 3B. While he is not tremendously athletic, the skill set appears more certain than many on this list.

Other Players of Note: Rafael DePaula, RHP, Dominican Republic – DePaula was supposed to be one of the top arms available, but is currently suspended by MLB for age related issues. There is a rumor that this may be straightened out and that he will be allowed to sign this year. With a low- to mid-90s fastball, watch for this if it should happen; Daniel Sanchez,RHP, Venezuela – Sanchez has significant questions regarding his true age and so therefore is really difficult to assess. He did appear at a recent Perfect Game Showcase event here in the states and appears to have the requisite skills ; Max Kepler, CF, Germany – May be the best prospect signed out of Germany ever.