Hots and Nots – August 26, 2009

Feliz has fanned nearly 40% of the MLB batters that he has faced

Down the stretch in 2002, the Anaheim Angeles, in the midst of a playoff run, recalled a 20yo, right-handed, fireballer with filthy late movement and began turning over games to him in crucial situations. In 24 late season/post season innings, Francisco Rodriguez— K-Rod, compiled a 1.48 ERA, fanned 41 and held opposing hitters to a .143 Average Against, while playing a key role in the Angels’ World Series run. While the Angels had gone back and forth between whether or not Rodriguez was a starter, after 2002, his fate was sealed and he became one of the most dominant closers in the game. Fast forward 7 years, and take a look at the Texas Rangers, 21yo, right-handed, fireballer, Neftali Feliz. As the Rangers fight their way to a playoff spot, Feliz has become their ‘go-to guy’ in the pen. In 16 innings, Feliz has a 0.55 ERA, a 0.93 Average Against, and has fanned 21 of the 55 batters he has faced. The Rangers have predominantly used Feliz as a starter in the minors, but it appears that there is a great big case of déjà vu going on right now and with it, Feiliz has earned this week’s top spot.

Hot Pitchers –
1) Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX – After walking nearly 4 batters per 9IP in 2008 and 3.5 at Oklahoma City this year, Feliz has allowed but 1 free pass in more than 16 Major League Innings. He is pitching fearlessly at the moment and is making even good hitters look silly. The K-Rod comparison is an accurate one, and expect Frankie Francisco to be with a new team in 2010.
2) Mauricio Robles, LHP, SEA – When the Mariners acquired Luke French in the Jarrod Washburn deal, it was assumed that it was a deal of getting a player with a similar upside, with a lot less years on him. Looking at the deal that way ignores the upside of the slight, 5’10, LHP. While not big, Robles does have a low-90s fastball with excellent late movement, and right now, pitching in one of the Minor League’s least friendly parks, Robles has amassed a 2.66 ERA, a 1.279 WHIP and fanned 21 in 20 IP, with the best performances coming at High Desert. Over his last three starts, Robles has a 0.47 ERA, a 0.947 WHIP and a 20:12 K:BB ratio.

3) Deolis Guerra, RHP, MIN – Now that Santana is out for the year, with an uncertain future for 2010, Twins management is trying to find something positive in what they got in return for him. While Guerra has had an up-and-down season, he just might be beginning to regain his 2007 form. Over his last three starts he has a 2.89 ERA, a 0.857 WHIP and a 16:4 K:BB ratio, giving the 20yo, a 4.88 ERA on the year.

4) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, CLE – Carrasco was in the midst of a relatively disappointing 2009 campaign when the Phillies made him the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal at the trade deadline. He seems to have turned things around though, as he has posted a 2.01 ERA, 0.761 WHIP, with a 22:3 K:BB ratio over his last three starts and International (INT) batters are hitting .205 against him since the deal.

5) Tyler Chatwood, RHP, LAA – Chatwood was the Angels top pick in the 2008 draft and opted to sign for $550,000 instead of attending UCLA. He has a fastball that hits the mid-90s, but still struggles with control at times. At 5’11, there isn’t a ton of projectability in him, but nonetheless, he has compiled a solid season as a 19yo in the Midwest (MWL) League. Over his last three starts, he has posted a 1.53 ERA, a 0.849 WHIP and a 18:7 K:BB ratio, giving him a 4.10 ERA on the year.

6) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TBR – With David Price in the majors, there is quite a battle in the Rays system for the title of best pitching prospect. Hellickson is trying to fend off Matt Moore, Wade Davis, Nick Barnese and Kyle Lobstein, and thus far is doing a pretty fair job of it. Over his last three starts, Hellickson has posted a 2.79 ERA, a 0.724 WHIP, with a 27:6 K:BB ratio, giving the 22yo a 2.82 ERA on the year.

7) Thomas Hanson, RHP, ATL – Sometimes we lose sight of how remarkable young players’ performances have been once they lose the designation of ‘propsect’. It is for that reason that we highlight Thomas Hanson this week. Hanson entered 2009 as arguably one of the top two pitching prospects in baseball. The Braves were relatively patient with him, given how dominating his performance was at Gwinnett (1.49 ERA with 90 Ks in 66IP). But his performance in Atlanta has been nothing short of spectacular. Over his last three starts, the 22yo has posted a 2.75 ERA, a 1.017 WHIP , with a 23:3 K:BB ratio. Through 14 Major League starts he has a 3.12 ERA and if you ignore his debut start, it is 2.69 over his last 13.

8) Kyle Lobstein, LHP, TBR – More polished than most high school pitchers, the Rays tabbed the left-hander with their second round pick in the 2008 draft. He signed late (for $1.5 million), so didn’t make his professional debut until the New York-Penn (NYP) League opened this summer. Through 12 starts he is everything that had been advertised, posting a 2.79 ERA. Over his last three starts, he has a 1.42 ERA, a 0.684 WHIP and a 22:3 K:BB ratio. The Rays have promoted a number of players to Tampa over the last couple of seasons, but with players like Lobstein, the cupboard is hardly bare yet.

9) Jake Arrieta, RHP, BAL – With Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen and Hernandez already rookies in the Orioles rotation, it has hard to believe that there is another rookie ready to go, but after a 1.35 ERA, 1.000 WHIP and a 17:6 K:BB ratio that appears to be the case with the 23yo, Arrieta. With Guthrie’s contract up at the end of the season, if they can find a suitor for Koji Uehara, it is possible the Orioles will open the 2010 season with a rotation made up entirely of players, under 25yo.

10) Nick Hagadone, LHP, CLE – One of the key pieces that Cleveland received in the Victor Martinez trade, Hagadone is putting together a remarkable post-Tommy John surgery recovery. Over his last three starts, Hagadone has posted a 2.08 ERA, a 0.577 WHIP, with a 13:3 K:BB ratio. Through 14 starts, South Atlantic (SAL) League hitters are batting .143 against him. At 23yo, he is ready for bigger challenges, and could move fast in 2010.

Hot Hitters –
1) Julio Borbon, CF, TEX – Sometimes players provide intangible value that isn’t easily captured by our traditional statistical view. Selected as a supplemental first round pick in 2007, Borbon made solid, if unspectacular, progress in 2008. A 23yo, Borbon put up good numbers in the PCL this year, albeit somewhat bereft of power. When Nelson Cruz went down, the Rangers seized the opportunity to get Borbon’s bat/speed in the lineup. Since his recall, the Rangers are 6-3 with Borbon in the starting lineup. In 41 Big League ABs, Borbon has posted a 1.015 OPS with 9 SBs. Over the last two weeks, Borbon has posted a .484/.556/.645. He has the ability to electrify an offense and should be the Rangers everyday CF in 2010.

2) Andrew Cumberland, SS, SDP – After being signed as a supplemental 1st round pick in 2007, Cumberland had been limited by a string on nagging injuries to 319 professional ABs, coming into the year. An athletically gifted player, Cumberland’s fate will be determined by his ability to stay at SS. As a SS, he can be a classic top of the order table setter, who will likely never have tremendous power. If he must shift to 2B or CF, he is likely a Major League reserve. Over the last two weeks, Cumberland has played his best baseball of the year, posting a .378/.521/.676, and now has an .818 OPS on the year.

3) Travis Snider, LF, TOR – Snider continues to be one of the hottest hitters in the game—at any level, as he has brought his remarkable INT performance with him to Toronto, with 3 HRs and a .400 OBP in 25 ABs since his return. Over the last two weeks he has posted a .386/.491/.682. At 21yo, look for Snider to establish himself as one of the games most feared hitters in 2010.

4) Chris Johnson, 3B, HOU – In a system bereft of position prospects, Johnson may get more attention than would otherwise be called for from a 24yo at AAA, with a sub-.800 OPS, but none the less, Johnson has put together a solid 2009 campaign. Peaking at the right time, over the last two weeks he has posted a .375/.400/.750. With only Jeff Keppinger and Geoff Blum ahead of him, don’t be surprised to see Johnson in Houston come September.

5) Alex Liddi, 3B, SEA – No player has appeared on the ‘Hot’ list more times than Liddi has this season, and for good reason, as he hasn’t posted an OPS below .967 in any month this year. And despite a 1.049 OPS for the year, Liddi is saving his best for last, as he has gone .400/.481/.600 over the last two weeks and has a 1.167 OPS so far this month. It has taken way too long for the ‘experts’ to recognize Liddi. He is young for his league, is extremely athletic, has the defense to stay at 3B, and at 6’4, 180 lbs, he has one of the most projectable ‘power’ bodies in the Minors. The ‘expert’ community dings him for his ‘toe-tap’ swing initiator, yet he seems to get around just fine on the fastball. They ‘ding’ him for his home park being one of the Minors friendliest, yet his .888 OPS away from High Desert would rank 7th in the league—despite the removal of all games from his home park, and the 6 players that would have ranked higher than him are all either 22yo or 23yo, despite Liddi being only 11 days past turning 21yo. The point…for the season, Liddi trails only Buster Posey as position player prospects that have had at least 100 ABs in the California (CAL) League this year. Now let’s see how long it takes the ‘experts’ to figure it out.

6) Logan Watkins, 2B, CHN – The Cubs surprised the scouting community, not by taking Watkins in the 21st round in 2008, but by signing him to a $500,000 bonus. But the Cubs, under Tim Wilken, are trying to move to a more contact-oriented prospect approach and Watkins is an athletically gifted player that fits that mold. After going .464/.538/.571 over his last 65 PAs, Watkins now has a .838 OPS, as a 19yo in the Northwest (NWL) League.

7) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, NYM – It’s kind of like being the ‘tallest midget’, but Nieuwenhuis has quickly established himself as the best OF prospect in the Mets’ system after being selected in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft. At 22yo, in the Florida State (FSL) League, we would like to see how he does next year in AA, before getting too excited, but with a .373/.448/.881 over the last two weeks, he now has an .820 OPS for the year.

8) Thomas Hickman, OF/1B, FLA - Hickman has been somewhat of a disappointment since the Marlins selected him in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft. After posting a .767 in the SAL in 2008, the Marlins started Hickman in the FSL this season, where he was significantly over matched and eventually placed on the restricted list with ‘personal ‘ issues. When he returned in July, they returned him to the SAL and it has been a completely different story, as he has posted a .390/.528/.951 over the last two weeks and now has a 1.267 OPS since his return. At 21yo, there is still potential here, but it is time for Hickman to put it all together.

9) Cole Gillespie, OF, ARZ - Gillespie put together a solid debut, after the Brewers drafted him in the 3rd round in 2006, but it has been relatively downhill since then. In his fourth professional season, he has been solid, yet unspectacular. Limited defensively he appears now to have little more than 4th OF upside. For that reason, the Brewers felt comfortable in including him in the trade for Felipe Lopez in mid-July. Gillespie has taken quite favorably to his new surroundings, posting a .946 OPS in his first 99ABs since the trade, including a .450/.511/.750 over the last two weeks.

10) Kyler Burke, OF, CHN – Burke could well be this seasons’ reclamation success story, as entering the season, the 2006 first round pick had posted a .679 OPS in nearly 1000 professional ABs. Burke still had his supporters, and the Cubs decided to let him repeat the Midwest (MWL) League, where he could let his age catch up with the competition. This could be one of the best organizational decisions of the year, as Burke has broken through to the tune of a .901 OPS. The 21yo, has posted a .326/.425/.674 over his last 60 PAs, and has turned into a virtual walk machine, taking a free pass in nearly 21% of his PAs over the last month. For the season, his walk rate is nearly double what it was in 2008.

The Nots –
1) Zach Collier, OF, PHI – Another in the typical mold of ‘toolsy’, athletic, picks that the Phillies seem to love, Collier has had about as disappointing of season as any 2008 1st round pick not named Skipworth. After being thoroughly dominated in the SAL, the Phillies moved him to the NYP when the short season leagues began, but the results there have been only marginally better. After a .125/.125/.125 over the last two weeks, Collier now has a .643 OPS in the NYP, and a .604 OPS for the year. Still just 18yo, it isn’t time to bail on him, but there is certainly cause for concern.

2) Argenis Diaz, SS, PIT – We have followed Diaz closely, ever since he posted one of the best age-adjusted seasons in the 2005 Venezuelan Summer League. His bat, however, is not his Big League ticket, with a .702 OPS through 5 Minor League seasons. Only 22yo, Diaz was dealt to the Pirates in the Adam LaRoche deal. Typical of the prospects that the Pirates received in their numerous deadline deals, Diaz has plenty of question marks. The most prominent of which is whether or not he will ever hit well enough to receive regular playing time. It’s not looking good at the moment, as Diaz has a .470 OPS since the trade, and has gone only .167/.184/.167 over the last two weeks.

3) P.J. Walters, RHP, STL – Walters has had some eye-opening performance as he has bounced between St. Louis and Memphis this year. Unfortunately, for him, not enough of them. Over the last two weeks, Walters has a 25.07 ERA, a 3.643 WHIP, with a 2:4 K:BB ratio.

4) Ty Worthington, OF, ARZ – Worthington is a prime example of why we don’t prefer ‘toolsy’, athletic, players with little history of performance. Drafted in the fifth round of the 2007 draft, away from a football scholarship, Worthington has posted a .435 OPS in two professional seasons. After not being able to handle the Pioneer (PIO) League for two years, the Diamondbacks moved him to their NWL affiliate…but the results have been similar. A .100/.122/.125 over the last two weeks, leaves him with a .560 OPS on the year, and leaves me scratching my head as to why Worthington isn’t playing football.

5) Nick Schmidt, LHP, SDP – In what seems like a decade ago, Schmidt actually opened this season by destroying MWL hitters in his return from surgery. A promotion to the California (CAL) League, hasn’t proved so well. After posting a 12.71 ERA, 2.824 WHIP and a 2:5 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, Schmidt finds himself on the disable list--to heal his 7.88 CAL ERA.

6) Josh Reddick, OF, BOS – I like Josh Reddick, and I give tremendous props to the Red Sox organization for forging their own path to player development and coming out on the right side more often than most. But can anyone explain to me what the 22yo Reddick was doing in a Red Sox uniform at any point this year? He was good—not great in the ESL this season, and that seemed to be the right developmental level for him, but someone was dreaming if they really believed he was ready for the ‘show’. Hopefully the experience won’t come back to bite everyone as Reddick is now in AAA and has posted a .127/.186/.182 over the last two weeks.

7) Henry Rodriguez, RHP, OAK – After a disappointing 2008 season, the Athletics decided to convert Rodriguez to a reliever. It doesn’t appear to be going so well. After a two week period where he has gone 20.77 ERA, 3.923 WHIP, with a 6:7 K:BB ratio, Rodriguez now has a 6.28 ERA on the year. He’s still only 22yo and his raw ‘stuff’ is better than the results, so it isn’t time to write him off yet, but his star has dimmed considerably over the last two seasons.

8) Juan Duran, OF, CIN – Signing 16yos out of Latin America is an extremely risky business. As a matter of fact, of the thirteen players that have ever been signed for $1 million or more, prior to 2007, only Miguel Cabrera and Wily Aybar have seen regular playing time at the Big League level (Angel Villalona and Fernando Martinez could still join that list). Duran signed for $2,000,000 in 2007, posted a .659 OPS in the Dominican Summer (DSL) League in 2008, and is struggling mightily in 2009. After posting a .167/.167/.250 over the last two weeks, Duran now has a .491 OPS in the Gulf Coast (GCL) League. Duran doesn’t turn 18 until next week, so there is still plenty of time, but there are also plenty of holes in his swing that need fixing.

9) Adys Portillo, RHP, SDP – With Michel Ynoa yet to make his professional debut, Portillo becomes the most expensive 16yo Latin American pitcher signed in 2008. Portillo will still be a 17yo when he finishes the season, so there isn’t a whole lot to read into his performance, and he has whiffed 44 batters in 52 Arizona (AZL) League innings, but with a 1-9 record and a 5.13 ERA, things haven’t been impressive. Over his last three starts, things haven’t been any better—9.72 ERA, 2.880 WHIP, with a 7:8 K:BB ratio.

10) Eric Hosmer, 1B, KCR – With Alex Gordon back in AAA, Mike Moustakas posting a .719 OPS in the Carolina (CAR) League, Hochevar still not seemingly able to put it together at the Major League level and Hosmer with a .685 OPS in two stops, one begins to wonder if the common thread isn’t the Royals player development process. Gordon was about as sure a “can’t miss” prospect as they get, Hochevar was the #1 overall pick and while Moustakas had questions surrounding his eventual defensive position, few questioned his ability to hit. Now Hosmer is looking like the 4th straight ‘high’ first round pick that is failing to meet expectations. He’s clearly in over his head in the CAR (.532 OPS), and a .160/.222/.200 over the last two weeks, leaves his OPS at .685 for the year.

What to Watch For At Diamond Futures

As the season begins to wind down, and many of you turn your attention to other sports, we just wanted to give you a brief look ahead, to what you can expect to see from us at Diamond Futures during the next few months…

September –

Tuesday , September 1st

– We will be publishing the results of our recently completed study on the correlation between Minor League statistics and Major League success. It is our 4th such study over the last decade, and by far our most comprehensive look yet.

Wednesday, September 2nd – Our Final Regular Season Hots ‘n’ Nots

Friday, September 4th – We will begin our league-by-league reviews of the Minor League’s top age adjusted performances for the 2009 season. We will evaluate every league, starting with the Venezuelan Summer League and ending with the Pacific Coast League, near the end of the month (19 Leagues in all). We will be posting approximately 5-6 Leagues each week during the month.

Wednesday, September 9th – Our End of the Year Hots ‘n’ Nots List where we rank the players that have helped or harmed their prospect status the most this year.

October –

October is our busiest research month of the year, and this year it will be by far the most hectic yet, as we will also be changing software and hosting sites. Our postings will be somewhat more sporadic, but you will still find an updated 2010 Draft Top 30 List, a recap of the International Signings of note, as well as some of historical work that we have done in the past.

November thru January –

During the second week of November, we will begin publishing our team by team prospect lists, at a rate of two to three per week. We will conclude this in Early February with the Diamond Futures Top 300 List. The culmination of this will be the most extensive prospect list available anywhere on the web.

February –

In February, the season begins in earnest for us at Diamond Futures. We will kick off the month with our 2010 Preseason Draft Top 50 and our ‘Winter Wonders’ list of the top performances from Winter Ball. This will be followed by our Top 300 list. Around the middle of the month we will take a look at the 2010 college baseball season, and this should take us right up to the beginning of Cactus and Grapefruit League play.


We hope that this is enough to keep you plenty interested in baseball during the long off-season.

Hots and Nots – August 19, 2009

Francisco is slugging .750 over the last 4 weeks

After finishing second in Home Runs, and slugging .665, in the highly competitive Dominican League, as a 21yo, last Winter, the Reds’ Juan Francisco entered the season with high expectations. But after two months in the Southern (SOL) League Francisco was hitting .245/.270/.442. Worse yet, he was striking out once every four trips to the plate. But as the weather has warmed, so has Francisco’s bat, as he gone .320/.357/.578 since the beginning of June, and has cut his strikeout rate to just over 17%. That earned him a promotion to the International (INT) League this weekend where the hits just keep on coming. Looking like Scott Rolen’s replacement, sooner rather than later, Francisco tops this week’s list.

Hot Hitters –
1) Juan Francisco, 3B, CIN - Francisco has always had a tendency to be a streaky hitter, and he doesn’t walk enough to provide comfort that he will have success at the Major League level. Nonetheless, he has brought his strikeout rate down this season, possesses adequate 3B defense and awesome power potential. Francisco’s on a roll right now, going .435/.462/.855 over the last two weeks and the 22yo has an a .844 OPS on the year.

2) Alex Avila, C, DET - The son of the Tigers Assistant GM, was considered by some to be a ‘patronage’ pick when the Tigers took him in the 5th round of 2008. But so far, Avila’s success is the biggest surprise from that class, as he has turned a solid Eastern (ESL) League season into a Big League trial, and so far he has made the most of it. Avila has posted a .409/.519/1.000 over the last two weeks.

3) Travis Snider, LF, TOR – With the Jays going nowhere this season, they can hardly be faulted for trying to focus this year on what is best for Snider’s long-term development. Still , with a 1.094 OPS on the year, one has to wonder what took the Jays so long to get Snider’s bat back into the Toronto lineup. Snider returned to the Jays lineup Tuesday night, going 2 for 3 with a walk and a home run in the game. Over the last two week’s Snider has posted a .438/.518/.813 and is one of the hottest hitters at any level.

4) Julio Borbon, CF, TEX – Selected as a supplemental first round pick in 2007, Borbon made solid, if unspectacular, progress in 2008. A 23yo, Borbon put up good numbers in the PCL this year, albeit somewhat bereft of power. When Nelson Cruz went down, the Rangers seized the opportunity to get Borbon’s bat/speed in the lineup. In 28 Big League ABs, Borbon has posted a 1.016 OPS with 8 SBs in 8 attempts. He has the ability to electrify an offense and should be the Rangers everyday CF in 2010.

5) Ryan Kalish, OF, BOS – Kalish’s career has been marked by nagging injuries that had limited him to 575 ABs in three professional seasons, entering the year. After 115 Carolina (CAR) League ABs, the 21yo Kalish was promoted to the Eastern (ESL) League, where he has been solid, if not spectacular. However lately, Kalish has taken his game up a notch, posting a .353/.441/.725 over the last two weeks.

6) Buster Posey, C, SFG – Posey has been everything that was advertised when the Giants made him the 5th overall pick in 2008. He has first rate catch and throw skills and better than Major League average offensive skills. After posting a .967 in nearly 300 CAL ABs, the Giants skipped Posey to AAA, where he has posted a .910 OPS as a 22yo. Over the last two weeks he has gone .435/.480/.957, and he should become the Giants everyday backstop by early 2010. Posey currently is one of the top five prospects in the Minor Leagues.

7) Brett Jackson, OF, CHN – When the Cubs selected Jackson with the next to last pick of the first round, there were many scratching their heads, as the book on Jackson was that he was a decent OF, with solid offensive numbers, but lacked power and whiffed way too often for that production level. After 182 professional ABs, Jackson has shown surprising patience (32BB), better than expected power, and a K-rate (20%) that people can live with. Over the last two weeks he has posted a .333/.397/.606 and is proving, at least at the moment, to be a better pick than some of the more highly rated college OFs that went before him.

8) Kyler Burke, OF, CHN – A real resurrection story, entering the season, the 2006 first round pick had posted a .679 OPS in nearly 1000 professional ABs. Burke still had his supporters, and the Cubs decided to let him repeat the Midwest (MWL) League, where he could let his age catch up with the competition. This could be one of the best organizational decisions of the year, as Burke has broken through to the tune of a .911 OPS. The 21yo, has posted a .449/.578/.756 over his last 65 PAs, and has turned into a virtual walk machine, taking a free pass in nearly 21% of his PAs over the last month. For the season, his walk rate is nearly double what it was in 2008.

9) Matt Spencer, OF, OAK – Pretty much a throw-in in the deal that sent Joe Blanton to Philadelphia, Spencer has been anything but, as he has posted an OPS of more than .900 in nearly 600 ABs since the deal. Over the last two weeks Spencer has further upped his game, going .442/.500/.808 and now has a .883 in the Texas (TXL) League.

10) Alexia Amarista, 2B, LAA – While we have been touting Amarista since he posted the best age-adjusted performance in the Dominican Summer (DSL) League in 2007, the book on him entering the year was that he was a smallish, good-glove secondbasemen, with an upside of a utility infielder. Amarista is trying to rewrite that book this season, as he has gone .346/.433/.615 over the last two weeks and now has a .846 OPS, as a 20yo, in the not-so hitter-friendly MWL.

11) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – Heyward had his worst week in months, going 3 for 23 in his quest to best Andruw Jones’ 157 AB, 1.107 OPS performance in 1996, and put together a historic Southern (SOL) League season by a player younger than 20. He now has fallen slightly behind Jones pace, with a 1.097 through 137 ABs.


Hot Pitchers –
1) Randall Delgado, RHP, ATL – The 19yo Delgado posted a top 10 age-adjusted season in the DSL in 2007, a top 5 age-adjusted season in the APY in 2008, and thus far has 121 Ks in 107 IP in the SAL this year. With additional projection left in his 6’3 frame, he should eventually have a mid-90s fastball, to go along with secondary offerings that have Major League potential. Over the last two weeks, Delgado has a 0.75 ERA, a 0.500 WHIP and a 18:2 K:BB ratio. There is significant upside in this right-hander who likely only trails Julio Teheran (ahead of Mike Minor) as Braves pitching prospects.

2) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – While the signing of Jacob Turner this week likely bumps Crosby down to #2 on the Tiger prospect list, Crosby has put together a season that had him named by Baseball America as the top pitching prospect in the MWL. 1st in the League in ERA, 5th in WHIP and 3rd in strikeouts. Since the middle June, the 20yo has posted an ERA (0.72 ERA), allowing only 1 ER since July 15. Over the last two weeks, Crosby has posted a 0.00 ERA, a 0.786 WHIP, and is currently working on a 22-inning scoreless streak. On the year MWL hitters are batting only .195 against him.

3) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, CLE – Carrasco was in the midst of a relatively disappointing 2009 campaign when the Phillies made him the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal at the trade deadline. He seems to have turned things around though, as he has posted a 2.70 ERA, 0.771 WHIP, with a 21:4 K:BB ratio over his last three starts.

4) Jay Jackson, RHP, CHN – In one of those situation where you realize that developing a player is more than just teaching them plate discipline or how to throw a split-finger fastball, the Cubs demoted Jay Jackson from AA to the Florida State (FSL) League, despite posting a 3.70 ERA, at the end of July for ‘failure to comply with team rules’. The good news is that Jackson hasn’t pouted about it, and in four starts since his demotion he has posted a 0.36 ERA, a 0.711 WHIP, with a 24:3 K:BB ratio. With a 2.92 ERA on the year for the 21yo, Jackson looks poised to find himself in Chicago sometime next season—if he can get his ‘compliance’ problems straightened out.

5) Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU – The 18yo Lyles is having an eye-popping season, where he has fanned 151 batters in 129 SAL innings. Over the last two weeks, Lyles has a 1.50 ERA, 0.889 WHIP, with a 18:3 K:BB ratio. The baseball world was certainly surprised when the Astros made Lyles a supplemental 1st round pick in 2008, but, at least for now, it is the Astros that appear to hold the last laugh.

6) Michael Montgomery, LHP, KCR – At least until the Kansas City signs Aaron Crow, Montgomery has established himself as the Royals’ #1 pitching prospect. A 2.45 ERA, 0.927 WHIP with a 16:4 K:BB ratio over his last three starts, gives the 20yo a 2.32 ERA on the season. CAR hitters are batting only .208 against him.

7) Daniel Gutierrez, RHP, KCR – In what appears to be the week where we talk more about the ‘ugly’ side of developing Minor League prospects, Gutierrez’s season debut was delayed due to arm ‘fatigue’ he was experiencing this spring. Gutierrez then switched agents to Scott Boras, and the Boras/Gutierrez camp got into a ‘tiff’ with Royals management, in May, about the injury rehab process. Kansas City sent Gutierrez home for a month and finally at the end of July Gutierrez made his season debut. 17 innings into the season, Gutierrez’s ERA sits at 2.70, his WHIP at 0.660, and he has fanned 17, while only issuing 3 walks.

8) Jaime Garcia, LHP, STL – A great comeback story, Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery last September and remarkably returned to the mound this July. While control is typically the last thing to return after TJ surgery, Garcia has a 28:6 K:BB ratio in 6 outings since his return. While Tony LaRussa is on the record as saying Garcia won’t see St. Louis this season, look for him to play a key role for the Cardinals in 2010.

9) Ryan Pope, RHP, NYY – A 3rd round pick in 2007, the 23yo Pope has struggled for much of the time this season, posting a 4.85 ERA in the ESL. That hasn’t been the case though for the last two weeks, where Pope has a 0.00 ERA, 0.615 WHIP and a 16:3 K:BB ratio.

10) Matt Moore, LHP, TBR – With David Price in Tampa, Matt Moore has assumed the title of the Rays’ best pitching prospect. The 20yo has dominated South Atlantic (SAL) League hitters this season, allowing them to bat .187 against him, while striking out 12.7 per 9IP. He’s been even better over his last three starts, with a 2.40 ERA, a 0.933 WHIP and a 24:7 K:BB ratio. Moore will still have to harness his ‘stuff’, but he is currently one of the more dominating pitchers in the Minors.


The Nots –
1) Anthony Swarzak, RHP, MIN - Swarzak is one of those WYSIWYG (what you see is what you get)pitchers, and what you see is a 23yo with stuff that is good enough to fall in to the back of the rotation, but not good enough to actually overpower Major League hitters. Because of that, he is struggling in his debut season. Over the last two weeks, Swarzak has posted a 19.24 ERA, a 3.4000 WHIP and a 3:1 K:BB ratio. On the year, his ERA in Minnesota is 5.87.

2) Cutter Dykstra, 2B, MIL – I can promise you that the Brewers expected more than the .594 OPS they have gotten from Dykstra this year, when they made him their 2nd round pick in 2008. Still only 20yo, there is time for him to turn things around, but a .119/.159/.167 over the last two weeks isn’t helping his cause any.

3) Tony Thomas, 2B, CHN – Thomas has made 2 appearances on both the ‘Hot’ list and ‘Not’ list this year, and I guess that is to be expected from a guy that is merely below average defensively and about average with the bat. Over the last two weeks, Thomas has posted a .121/.194/.121 and now has only a .740 OPS in the Southern (SOL) League.

4) Chris Hicks, RHP, HOU – Hicks was drafted in the 14th round in 2008, after spending 2 mediocre years in the Georgia Tech bullpen. After flashing a mid-90s fastball in the Hawaiian Winter League, the Astros decided to give him a shot at starting this year. Proving both that the California (CAL) League is tough on pitchers, and that a good fastball doesn’t always equal a good pitcher, it is beginning to look like Hicks career isn’t going to amount to much. A 21.94 ERA, 3.563 WHIP, and a 8:4 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves Hicks with a an ERA on the wrong-side of ‘6’ for the year.

5) Greg Veloz, 2B, WSN – Outside of Fernando Martinez, we weren’t enamored with the quality of Mets’ offensive prospects heading into the season, and too many players like Veloz are the reason why. Yes Veloz is athletic, and yes Veloz has some skills, but what Veloz isn’t (nor has ever been) is player that produces, entering the year with a lifetime OPS of .695. When the Mets went looking for some SS backup for Jose Reyes, they found Anderson Hernandez and couldn’t have been happier to unload Veloz in the process. After posting a .042/.148/.125 over the last two weeks, Veloz’s OPS sits at .577 on the year.

6) Jordan Danks, OF, CHA – In fairness, the White Sox 7th round pick in 2008 has put together a solid debut season, with a .784 OPS between stops in the CAR and SOL. He’s hit a bit of an ugly stretch though and is only .063/.189/.063 over the last two weeks.

7) Collin Balester, RHP, WSN – I’ll admit to never having been a fan of the 4th round pick by the Expos in 2004, and I think it speaks volumes to the state of the Nationals’ rotation that he has made 6 starts for them. While a 9.64 ERA, 1.714 WHIP and a 5:3 K:BB ratio over his last two weeks may be a bit on the extreme side, his 6.75 ERA on the year does seem to be a fairly accurate gauge of his talent level.

8) Josh Reddick, OF, BOS – I like Josh Reddick, and I give tremendous props to the Red Sox organization for forging their own path to player development and coming out on the right side more often than most. But can anyone explain to me what the 22yo Reddick was doing in a Red Sox uniform this year? He was good—not great in the ESL this season, and that seemed to be the right developmental level for him, but someone was dreaming if they really believed he was ready for the ‘show’. Hopefully the experience won’t come back to bite everyone as Reddick is now in AAA and has posted a .088/.114/.206 over the last two weeks.

9) Daniel Bard, RHP, BOS – Honestly I am not picking on Red Sox nation here, and I think Bard will be a good Major League closer—sooner rather than later. But it has been a rough couple of weeks for the 23yo, as he has posted a 13.50 ERA, a 3.000 WHIP and a 7:6 K:BB ratio over his last 6 outings.

10) Troy Patton, LHP, BAL – After becoming one of the ‘feel good’ stories from the first half of the season, Patton has floundered since his promotion to the International (INT) League. After giving up 6 runs, 6 hits and 3 walks in 3+ innings his last time out, the Orioles shut him down for the year. The hope is that he is just worn out in his comeback attempt and that it is nothing more serious.

An Early Look at the 2010 Draft

While Bryce Harper gets all the attention, Texas prepster Jameson Taillon is putting up results

With the signing deadline now passed for the 2009 Draft, it’s time to turn our attention to 2010. Below is our Summer Look at the Top 30 Players available in 2010. The overall class is shaping up to be of similar talent to the 2009 class. There is still a significant dearth of college hitting talent available, and an incredible shortfall of left-handed pitching in general--especially at the prep level. While Bryce Harper is clearly the cream of the crop right now, it appears to be a prep right-handed pitching heavy group. One clear difference between 2010 and the last couple of years is the number of solid prep shortstops that have both offensive talent and enough defense to stay at the position.

1) Bryce Harper, C, Las Vegas – The scouting reports from his showcase performances indicate the toolset is every bit as strong as has been rumored. The questions will surround his performance under the weight of increasingly heavy expectations. His struggles (0 for 5 with 3 whiffs) at the recent AFLAC aIl-star game are a prime example. If he produces on the field in 2010, he will be looking at a Strasburg like deal.
2) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, LSU – May have been the best college pitcher not named Strasburg in 2009, and certainly the star of the 2010 class.
3) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Woodlands, TX – Those who don’t feel the need to discount prep righties will likely place Taillon as a 1A in this draft as he is big (6’7”, 230), projectable, and is already producing with amazing raw ‘stuff’. Everything you would want in a pitching prospect.
4) A.J. Cole, RHP, Winter Springs, FL – Cole has outperformed Taillon at a couple of stops this Spring/Summer. He is long and lanky, with plenty of projectability. In addition to already possessing a mid-90s fastball, Cole is one of the most polished prep pitchers available.
5) Yordy Cabrera, SS, Lakeland, FL – A wide variety of opinions exist on Cabrera, who has looked like a man among boys at times this summer, as he has a pro body and tons of tools, but at times seems to disappear. He’s older than most prep players (will turn 20 next summer), but a big powerful middle infielder will attract a lot of attention come draft day.
6) Bryce Brentz, OF, Middle Tennessee State – May slip under the radar screen due to where he plays, but for our money this is the best college bat available.
7) Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Mississippi – Gets a boost from the dearth of left-handed talent available. Pomeranz is solid…much along the lines of the first round college hurlers in 2009.
8) Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley, FL – Son of former major leaguer Ed Whitson, Karsten is James Taillon-lite.
9) Josh Sale, OF, Seattle, WA – Turned in the best offensive performance at the Area Code games. Sale will be a professional hitter and it will be up to the team that drafts him to figure out where on the diamond he will play.
10) Justin O’Connor, SS, Muncie, IN – Perhaps the most intriguing player in the draft, O’Connor won’t make the scouts drool, but is 100% a baseball player that is without weakness in any facet of his game.
11) Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast – Turned in a very good 2009 season and would be getting far more attention if he played at a higher profile school. Sale was the best pitcher on the Cape this summer.
12) Kris Bryant, SS/3B, Las Vegas, NV – A big (6’5”, 205lbs) prep infielder with tremendous power. Bryant is likely to end up at 3B, and therefore opinions on him remain mixed.
13) Kyle Blair, RHP, Univ. of San Diego – One of the top returning college pitchers from 2009, Blair should get plenty of attention all year long. Had a solid summer on the Cape, but struggles with control at times.
14) Yasmani Grandal, C, Miami – An excellent defensive backstop, who has shown the ability to produce offensively from both sides of the plate. Grandal will likely enter the draft as the most Major League ready offensive talent.
15) Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech – McGuire is a ‘heady’ pitcher that posses solid command of a three-pitch repertoire. After posting a 3.50 ERA as a Sophomore, McGuire looks to return in 2010 as arguably the top pitching prospect in the ACC.
16) Christian Colon, SS, Cal State-Fullerton – A player that will get ‘dinged’ by the scouts because he doesn’t possess the quickness usually associated with Major League shortstops. Colon is a well-rounded gamer that is likely to embarrass many teams that pass on him as he turns out to be an above average major league shortstop.
17) James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky – Paxton possessed some of the best raw ‘stuff’ in college in 2009, but couldn’t turn it into results, as he posted a 5.86 ERA. Not able to get a deal done with the Blue Jays, after being selected in the second round in 2009, Paxton will return to the Wildcats, looking to become one of 2010’s top collegiate arms.
18) Manny Machado, SS, Hialeah, FL – Had a breakout performance at the Tournament of the Stars showcase event, where he turned in the best hitting performance—besting players like Justin O’Conner and Brian Ragira. Has the defensive skills of a pure shortstop and will just need to add strength this season to be a top pick.
19) Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas – Was the West starter in the Cape Cod League all-star game after posting a solid campaign there. Workman has good late life on a low-90s fastball and an above average curve. If he can improve upon his change, look for Workman to move up this list.
20) Trey Griffin, OF, Stockbridge, GA – Griffin is an extremely ‘toolsy’ OF with the arm strength to play RF and the speed to perhaps stick in center. We will be watching his production carefully this summer.
21) Stetson Allie, RHP, Olmsted Falls, OH – His ‘stuff’ is big-time, but controlling his secondary offerings will be the key to where he eventually goes.
22) Jarrett Parker, OF, Virginia – Parker struggled in the Cape this summer, but continues to show tremendous potential in the batting cage. If he can get his game production to match, he will be one of the collegiate games biggest offensive threats.
23) Justin Grimm, RHP, Georgia – Grimm has good late movement on a solid mid-90s fastball and a curve that shows potential. Controlling his offerings though is still a challenge at times. Scouts love his 6’4” frame and will be looking at what he can be, more than what he already is, come draft day.
24) Nick Castellanos, 3B, Ft. Lauderdale, FL – How high he goes will depend on whether scouts believe he can stay at third base. At times, Castellanos has shown to be a big time hitter this summer.
25) Drew Cisco, RHP, Mt. Pleasant, SC – Will get ‘dinged’ for lacking overpowering stuff, but Cisco is an extremely polished prep pitcher with tremendous control of ‘good’ stuff.
26) Derek Dietrich, 3B, Georgia Tech – Dietrich created more questions than answers this summer with his performance on the Cape, where he was clearly misplaced at shortstop. He may not hit enough to play 3B at the next level, and now leaves scouts wondering about his eventual defensive destination.
27) Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State – Closed the 2009 season with a string of dominating performances and was solid on the Cape. With one of the nation’s best curveballs, Wimmers should be the best college player in the Midwest this year.
28) Brian Ragira, OF, Arlington, TX – Had a solid summer showing, with his best performance coming at the Area Code Games where he excelled as both a defensive standout and an offensive stud. May move up lists with a solid Senior year.
29) Matt Harvey, RHP, North Carolina – Everyone is still waiting for performance to catch-up with potential, but he will certainly have the spotlight on him this season.
30) Austin Wilson, OF, Los Angeles, CA – Was one of the best players at the Under Armour game in Chicago and had an impressive Area Code Games performance. Looks to have the toolset of a big-time power hitting OF.

Others to Watch -
Zach Alvord, Alpharetta, SS, GA; Cameron Bedrosian, RHP, Coweta, GA; Krey Bratsen, OF, Bryan, TX; Gary Brown, OF, Cal State-Fullerton; Dylan Covey, RHP, Pasadena, CA; Kaleb Cowart, RHP, Adel, GA; Zack Cox, 3B, Arkansas; Brian Dupra, RHP, Notre Dame; Blake Forsythe, C, Tennessee; Kevin Gausman, RHP, Aurora, CO; Reggie Golden, OF, Wetumpka, AL; Jesse Hahn, RHP, Virginia Tech; Chris Hernandez, LHP, Miami; Marcus Littlewood, SS, St. George, UT; Hunter Morris, 1B, Auburn; Daniel Renken, RHP, Cas State-Fullerton; Josh Rutledge, SS, Alabama; Stefan Sabol, C, Aliso Niguel, CA; Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Barstow, CA; Victor Sanchez, 3B, Univ. of San Diego; Austin Southall, OF/1B, Baton Rouge, LA; Nick Tepesch, RHP, Missouri; A.J. Vanegas, RHP, Almeda, CA; Anthony Wolters, SS, Buena Vista, CA

Hots and Nots – August 12, 2009

Carter is on one of the hottest streaks by any player this season

After leading the California (CAL) League in Runs, RBIs, HRs and SLG in 2008, it should come as no surprise to see one of the Minor’s best power hitters putting together a ‘Hot’ streak. But in the midst of a 24-game hitting streak where he has posted .479/.551/.840, the A’s Chris Carter is on one of the most torrid streaks put together by any player this year. With his third straight appearance on the ‘Hot’ list, Carter finds his name at the top this week.


Hot Hitters –
1) Chris Carter, 1B, OAK – If Carter’s defense were a tad higher, he would have entered this year as one of the Minor’s top prospects, after the numbers he posted in his 4 season professional career. But likely being limited to a 1B/DH role sets the bar a tad higher for the 22yo prospect. Given the streak that Carter is on, there isn’t likely a bar that can be set high enough. A .569/.627/.1.059 over his last 60 PAs leaves Carter with a 1.006 OPS for the year. Expect the A’s to keep pointing Brett Wallace toward 3B and expect to see Carter in Oakland in September.

2) Alex Liddi, 3B, SEA – Arguably no Minor League prospect has raised their profile more than Liddi this season. Liddi has a projectable frame, solid foot work at 3B and is one of the younger players in the CAL. Yet he has consistently raked all year, to the tune of a 1.065 OPS. For those that would like to chalk up his performance to the High Desert air, his OPS is .921 on the road. Liddi has posted a .436/.522/.821 over his last 50 PAs and is rapidly establishing himself as one of the game’s best prospects.

3) Travis Snider, LF, TOR – With the Jays going nowhere this season, they can hardly be faulted for trying to focus this year on what is best for Snider’s long-term development. Still , with a 1.064 OPS on the year, one has to wonder what has taken the Jays so long to get Snider’s bat back into the Toronto lineup. After posting a .441/.529/.949 over the last two weeks, the wait ends tonight.

4) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – The 2008 2nd overall pick certainly has his doubters, as they question whether the thickly built Alvarez will be able to turn through the zone quick enough to ever make significant contact or whether he possesses the mobility to play anywhere but first base. Over the first three months of the season, it looked like the detractors might be right, as he posted only an .827 OPS in the Carolina (CAR) League, while fanning in 29% of his Plate Appearances. But the Calendar turned to July and the Bucs promoted Alvarez to Altoona, and he has become a different player, reducing his strikeout rate to 21% since July 1st. A .458/.552/.708 over the last two weeks gives Alvarez a .971 OPS in 151 Eastern (ESL) League ABs. If Alvarez can stay at 3B, he’s one of the Top 10 Prospects in the game. If not, at 22yo, he still is on track to become an above average Major League first basemen.

5) Mike Trout, OF, LAA – Prior to the draft, we had Trout rated as the third best High School hitting prospect available. We felt that the Angels got a bargain when Trout lasted until the 25th overall pick. Since Bobby Borchering and Donovan Tate have yet to sign, we won’t know how they will end up fairing, but for now Trout is the best High School position player, already in the Minors, from the 2009 draft class. Through 107 Arizona (AZL) League ABs, Trout has posted a .972 OPS. More impressive, he is spraying the ball all over the field and controlling the strike zone like a much older player. In the last five years, only Jaff Decker in 2008, Yefri Carvajal in 2007, Matt Sweeney in 2006 and Cedric Hunter in 2006 posted .900-plus OPS as 18yos or younger, and all were nearly 6 months older than Trout is. He looks to be a good one.

6) Angel Morales, OF, MIN – After posting a 1.036 in the Appalachian (APY) League, as an 18yo last season, Morales appeared on the prospect radar screens. With a .640 OPS in the Midwest (MWL) League through June, many began to write Morales off. Since the beginning of July, his OPS has been 1.019. Over the last two weeks, Morales has posted a .438/.471/.750.

7) Buster Posey, C, SFG – Posey has been everything that was advertised when the Giants made him the 5th overall pick in 2008. He has first rate catch and throw skills and better than Major League average offensive skills. After posting a .967 in nearly 300 CAL ABs, the Giants skipped Posey to AAA, where he has posted a .917 OPS as a 22yo. Over the last two weeks he has posted a .341/.400/.707, and he should become the Giants everyday backstop by early 2010. Eventually expect Posey to become one of the top catchers in the game.

8) Carlos Santana, C, CLE – Speaking of high-upside catchers, the Indians thought enough of Santana to deal all-star Victor Martinez to the Red Sox at the trade deadline. His plate discipline is among the best in the Minors, and he is slugging .545 in the Eastern (ESL) League. Over the last two week’s Santana has posted a .388/.474/.612 and now has a .954 OPS on the year.

9) Tony Sanchez, C, PIT – Making it three straight backstops on the list, many, this author included felt it was an extreme over draft when the Pirates made Sanchez the 4th overall pick in June’s draft. It’s not that Sanchez didn’t have first round talent, it was just that there were enough questions about his offense that he should have gone about twenty picks lower. Nonetheless the Pirates selected him and then quickly signed him to a $2.5 million bonus. Thus far it appears like a win for the Pirates as Sanchez has put up a .989 OPS. He should be on the fast track to the big leagues and could see Pittsburgh before the end of the 2010 season.

10) Brandon Waring, 1B/3B, BAL – Regular readers will recall that we have been high on Waring’s offensive skills since his Junior year at Wofford in 2007. Through roughly 1100 professional ABs, Waring hasn’t disappointed, belting 60 home runs and posting an .880 OPS. The question on Waring though, remains his defensive position as LF or 1B appears to be his likely destination. Over the last two weeks, Waring has posted a .347/.429/.755.

11) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – We’ll make it a Top 11 list this week, just to keep everyone updated on Jason Heyward’s quest to best Andruw Jones’ 157 AB, 1.107 OPS performance in 1996, and put together a historic Southern (SOL) League season by a player younger than 20. Heyward went ‘only’ 9 for 25, with two home runs this week and now has a 1.215 OPS through 111 SOL ABs.


Hot Pitchers –
1) Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX – Entering the season, the main question was whether or not Feliz would be able to harness his mid-90s fastball to reduce his walk rate and get to the Major Leagues. Now the only question appears to be whether his secondary offerings will continue to develop and make him a front of the rotation stud, or Feliz becomes one of the games better closers. Over the last two weeks, most of it in Arlington, Feliz has a 1.35 ERA, a 0.300 WHIP, with a 8:0 K:BB ratio. On the year Feliz has a 3.40 ERA and he’s still just a 21yo.

2) Matt Way, LHP, PHI – When you are a college Senior, your best pitch is your change, and your fastball sits in the high-80s, you aren’t going to get a lot of attention. Hence the reason the Phillies were able to draft him in the 5th round this year and sign him for only $30,000. Yet in 10 starts between the New York-Penn (NYP) League and the South Atlantic (SAL) League, Way has gotten people’s attention. He has only allowed more than 1 ER once on the year, has a 1.39 ERA, a 0.890 WHIP, with a 63:9 K:BB ratio. Way has allowed 2 ERs in his last 20 IP and has a 31:3 K:BB ratio.

3) Christian Friedrich, LHP – We felt Friedrich was the second best college pitcher available in the 2008 draft, but attending Eastern Kentucky kept him a bit under the radar screen entering the season. Friedrich dominated SAL hitters, fanning 66 in 45 IP. Going to the CAL, we thought he would face a stiffer challenge. So far, not so much. Friedrich has a 1.32 ERA in the hitter friendly California (CAL) League. Over the last two weeks he has put up a, 0.49 ERA, a 1.036 WHIP, with a 29:8 K:BB ratio. CAL hitters are batting a paltry .175 against him.

4) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – The Tigers top prospect is 4th in the MWL in ERA, 5th in WHIP and 3rd in strikeouts. At 20yo, he has established himself as the circuit’s top pitching prospect, posting a league best ERA since the middle of June (0.78 ERA), and allowing only 1 ER since July 15.. Over the last two weeks, Crosby has posted a 0.00 ERA, a 0.675 WHIP, and a 13:2 K:BB ratio. On the year MWL hitters are batting .196 against him and he has 115 strikeouts in 99 IP.

5) Randall Delgado, RHP, ATL – The 19yo Delgado posted a top 10 age-adjusted season in the DSL in 2007, a top 5 age-adjusted season in the APY in 2008, and thus far has 112 Ks in 102 IP in the SAL this year. With additional projection left in his 6’3 frame, he should eventually have a mid-90s fastball, to go along with secondary offerings that have Major League potential. Over the last two weeks, Delgado has a 1.38, a 0.538 WHIP and a 16:1 K:BB ratio. Still fairly raw, Delgado should be on your radar screen.

6) Anthony Slama, RHP, MIN – Entering the season, during his professional career, Salama had allowed opposing hitters to a .168 average against him and whiffed 13.9 batters per 9IP. With a 2.48 ERA and a 12.8 K/9IP in the ESL this year, Slama looks poised to help the Twins with a September call-up. One of the games better relief pitching prospects, Slama is working on an 11 inning scoreless streak, where he has posted a 1.000 WHIP and a 16:7 K:BB ratio.

7) Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU – The 18yo Lyles is having an eye-popping season, where he has fanned 146 batters in 123 SAL innings. Over the last two weeks, Lyles has a 1.42 ERA, 0.789 WHIP, with a 21:4 K:BB ratio. The baseball world was certainly surprised when the Astros made Lyles a supplemental 1st round pick in 2008, but, at least for now, it is the Astros that appear to hold the last laugh.

8) Felix Cespedes, RHP, PHI – This week’s ‘Who’s He? Award’ winner, Cespedes was the DSL pitcher who tossed a 9 inning perfect game a couple of weeks ago, only to see his bullpen lose the game in the 10th. With a 6’3 frame that should allow plenty of projection, he currently is posting the Dominican Summer (DSL) League’s best age-adjusted season with a 2.97 ERA and 88 strikeouts in 72 innings. Over the last two weeks, Cespedes has a 0.78 ERA, 0.522 WHIP and a 29:1 K:BB ratio. Oh, did I mention that he’s barely 18yo.

9) Martin Perez, LHP, TEX – Second in the SAL, with a 2.31 ERA, despite being the league’s youngest starting pitcher, Perez hasn’t allowed more than 1 ER in an outing since the calendar turned to July. But that isn’t the real story. The real story is that tonight, the 18yo makes his Texas (TXL) League debut—nearly two full years younger than any other pitcher in the league. Already with a fastball that often touches the mid-90s, and a curve-ball with tremendous late ‘bite’, Perez is remarkably mature beyond his years. When the prospect lists come out this off-season, expect to find Perez in the top half of most top 100s.

10) Jaime Garcia, LHP, STL – A great comeback story, Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery last September and remarkably returned to the mound this July. While control is typically the last thing to return after TJ surgery, Garcia has a 14:1 K:BB ratio in 4 outings since his return. Add to that a 1.64 ERA and a 0.727 WHIP, and the Cardinals should have another quality arm by the start of 2009.


The Nots –
1) Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS – While this is Anderson’s 4th appearance on the list this year, each of the previous times we have cautioned to not worry too much, that he is still just a 21yo, and is already in AA. It’s time to begin to worry. With a .034/.152/.034 performance over the last two weeks, Anderson’s OPS has slipped under .700 OPS for the year. More disturbing is his seemingly AWOL power stroke, as he is slugging only .361 for the year with only 8 HRs in 368 ABs. Anderson has always had a propensity to strikeout (roughly 25% K rate) and improving that will be required to be successful as he moves up, but right now that is the least of his worries. He is easily one of the most disappointing stories of 2009.

2) Brooks Brown, RHP, DET – A supplemental first round pick in 2006, Brown started 2009 by dominating the ESL in 37 innings. A promotion to Toledo has been a bit tougher on the 23yo. Over the last two weeks, Brown has a 9.82 ERA, a 2.864 WHIP with a 1:9 K:BB ratio.

3) Yamaico Navarro, SS, BOS – After a .915 OPS in the Carolina (CAR) League, the Red Sox promoted to the ESL, where things have gone downhill rapidly. Over the last two weeks, Navarro has posted a .119/.178/.143 and is beginning to look like a long-term utility infielder.

4) Esmil Rogers, RHP, COL – The 23yo Rogers opened the 2009 season by dominating TXL hitters, and he looked like one of the organizations top prospects. We’re taking a step back on that since his promotion. Over the last two weeks, Rogers has posted a 11.00 ERA, a 2.222 WHIP and a 6:5 K:BB ratio, leaving him with a 6.75 ERA in the Pacific Coast (PCL) League.

5) Adrian Cardenas, 2B, OAK – The 21yo Cardenas earned himself a promotion to AAA by posting a .838 OPS in the Texas (TXL) League. After 26 games and a .490 OPS, it is beginning to look like it is a little too much, too soon. Cardenas has posted a .122/.200/.122 over the last two weeks.

6) Troy Patton, LHP, BAL – Troy Patton’s comeback from shoulder surgery was one of the feel good stories of the season’s first half. His results since being promoted to the International (INT) League are far less encouraging. A 8.31 ERA, 1.962 WHIP, 5:5 K:BB ratio leaves him with an INT ERA of 6.45.

7) Chris Valaika, SS, CIN – There were many that thought that Valaika would end up as the Reds’ everyday SS by the end of this season. Now they are wondering if he has enough tools to be an everyday player in the Big Leagues. A .180/.180/.200 over the last two weeks has dropped the 23yo’s OPS to .536 on the year. He isn’t really a SS at the next level, and there are serious questions as to how much he will hit.

8) Evan Frederickson, LHP, MIL – Frederickson was the Brewers’ supplemental first round pick in 2008, but he has yet to deliver on his promise. After a 5.06 ERA in his 2008 debut, the 22yo has struggled to a 5.17 ERA this year, with MWL hitters batting .281 against her. Over the last two weeks, Frederickson has a 6.97 ERA, a 2.419 WHIP and a 10:13 K:BB ratio.

9) Juan Duran, OF, CIN – As only a 17yo, it is way too early to read anything substantial into Duran’s long-term future, but his Gulf Coast (GCL) League performance is a stark reminder as to the riskiness in paying huge ($2.0 million) bonuses to 16yo Latin American kids. A .154/.154/.256 over the last two weeks leaves Duran with a .521 OPS in 127 GCL ABs.

10) Jarrod Parker, RHP, ARZ – Those that have seen him pitch this year have called his stuff, arguably the best in the Minor’s. Unfortunately, in his last start he yielded 5 Runs and 8 Hits in 4 innings worth of work. Departing with a ‘sore’ elbow, Parker visited TJ surgeon extraordinaire Dr. James Andrews. The word at the moment is that his season is done but that rest and rehabilitation will be the course of action. These aren’t good signs, but it could be worse.

Hots and Nots - August 5, 2009

Snider hasn’t let an early season demotion derail him

When Travis Snider stumbled out of the gate this season, the Toronto Blue Jays were faced with a tough decision. They could let him try to work through his slump at the Major League level, or they could send Snider back down to the Minors to get things worked out and risk damaging the confidence of their best young hitter. The Jays chose the latter and, despite the early season struggles, Snider appears well on his way to establishing himself as one of the best young hitters in the game. For that, Snider heads this week’s list.

Hot Hitters –

1) Travis Snider, LF, TOR – Snider completed his rookie eligibility last season, but at 21yo, he is younger than all but three players on this list. After posting a .686 OPS for Toronto in the first month of the season, the Jays sent him down to Las Vegas. There he battled back problems and struggled to a .614 OPS in May before landing on the DL. Apparently recovered, Snider has handled himself like a true professional—never maligning his fate, and has posted a 1.244 OPS since returning. Over the last two weeks Snider has posted a .426/.500/.944 and appears ready to reclaim a spot in the Jays’ lineup any day now.

2) Josh Bell, 3B, LAD – The 22yo Bell has cut his strike out rate nearly in half this season and is putting together a breakout season. This made him one of the Dodgers’ most requested prospects at the deadline and lead to him being dealt to the Orioles in the Sherrill deal. Over the last two weeks Bell has put up a .469/.553/.813 and has a .880 OPS on the year.

3) Jason Heyward, OF, ATL – Last week Heyward topped this list and we discussed how amazing his Southern (SOL) League performance has been for a player his age. Still 4 days from his 20th birthday, Heyward hasn’t missed a beat since last week. Over the last two weeks he has posted a .467/.547/.778 and now has a 1.227 OPS through 27 SOL games. Heyward has clearly established himself as the Minor League’s best prospect and is looking like a future superstar. Expect him to see regular playing time in Atlanta by early 2010.

4) Allen Craig, 1B, STL – A former third basemen, the Cardinals thought enough of Craig’s defense that, despite being without Troy Glaus all season, they have left Craig and his 18 home runs in Memphis all year. I guess you could say that a prospect that is defensively limited to 1B in the Cardinal system is effectively ‘blocked’. At 25yo, Craig’s opportunities are fading, so he hopefully someone is taking notice of his noticed his .400/.466/.800 since the beginning of July.

5) Chris Carter, 1B, OAK – For being only 22yo, the Athletics first basemen has made the rounds in the Minor Leagues, currently playing with his third organization. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a .491/.563/.837, which only adds to what is turning out to be a ‘monster’ year. Through 106 Texas (TXL) League games, Carter has posted a .972 OPS with 34 doubles and 19 home runs.

6) Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA – In what has to be one of the weirder stat lines of the season, Morrison has walked 27 times over his last 18 games and now has a nearly 2:1 BB:K ratio on the year. Over the last two weeks Morrison has collected 17 of those walks on his way to a .263/.491/.473.

7) Carlos Santana, C, CLE – Victor Martinez is a top 5 catcher in the Major Leagues, but the Indians thought enough of Santana to deal Martinez to the Red Sox at the trade deadline. His plate discipline is among the best in the Minors, and he is slugging .531 in the Eastern (ESL) League. Over the last two week’s Santana has posted a .391/.451/.739 and now has a .934 OPS on the year.

8) Rymer Liriano, OF, SDP - This week’s ‘Who’s He? Award’ winner, the 18yo Liriano was signed by the Padres as a 16yo out of the Dominican Republic in 2007 for $300,000. He had an unspectacular debut season in the Dominican Summer (DSL) League in 2008, before the Padres brought him stateside. This year though, he has excelled, posting a .976 OPS through 32 Arizona (AZL) League games. Over the last two weeks, Liriano has posted a .333/.429/.778. Like many Latin American players, his future will be determined by his ability to learn to control the strike zone.

9) Zach Lutz, 3B, NYM – The Mets 5th round draft pick in 2007, has been limited by injuries to just 74 ABs in two seasons coming into 2009. The 23yo is trying to make up for lost time though, posting an .865 OPS through 285 Florida State (FSL) League ABs. Over the last two weeks he has gone .475/.523/.850.

10) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – The 2008 2nd overall pick certainly has his doubters, as they question whether the thickly built Alvarez will be able to turn through the zone quick enough to ever make significant contact or whether he possesses the mobility to play anywhere but first base. Over the first three months of the season, it looked like the detractors might be right, as he posted only an .827 OPS in the Carolina (CAR) League as a 22yo, while fanning in 29% of his Plate Appearances. But the Calendar turned to July and the Bucs promoted Alvarez to Altoona, and he has become a different player, reducing his strikeout rate to 23% and boosting his average from .235 to .353. A .347/.467/.633 over the last two weeks, gives him a .958 OPS in the Eastern (ESL) League.


Hot Pitchers –

1) Dan Hudson, RHP, CHA – Hudson becomes only the third player all season to sit upon the top of one of these lists two weeks in a row. The 22yo Hudson has become one of the surprises of the 2009 season, and at the moment looks to be one of the steals of the 2008 draft, where the Whites Sox tabbed him in the 5th round after he had a disappointing Junior year. Hudson was solid in the Pioneer (PIO) League in his 2008 debut. He was phenomenal in the South Atlantic (SAL) League to open 2009. He limited CAR hitters to a .195 average against in 8 starts. And since his promotion to the SOL 9 starts ago, he has been unbelievable, limiting SOL hitters to a .188 average against while posting a 1.60 ERA. Working on a 29-inning scoreless streak, Hudson has posted a .550 WHIP with a 24:4 K:BB ratio.

2) Andrew Cashner, RHP, CHN – After posting a 5.85 ERA and a 23:19 BB:K ratio in 20 innings in 2008, many, this writer included, were questioning the Cubs first round selection. Few are questioning that pick anymore. Over the last 17 innings, Cashner has posted a 0.00 ERA, a 0.647 WHIP and a 17:5 K:BB ratio. His ERA through six SOL starts is 0.88.

3) Simon Castro, RHP, SDP – Castro is a huge 20yo, that is rapidly becoming one of the Midwest (MWL) League’s most intimidating pitchers. Working predominantly off of a mid-90s fastball, Castro is overpowering MWL hitters. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a 0.60 ERA, a 0.467 WHIP and a 23:1 K:BB ratio, giving him a 2.78 ERA since the beginning of June. It remains to be seen whether his secondary offerings will improve enough to make him a long-term rotation presence, but there is certainly Major League potential here.

4) Jose Ortegano, LHP, ATL – The lightly regarded left-hander entered the 2009 season with a 2.91 ERA…despite being young for his level of competition at each stop. Yet, because he too lacks a dominating fastball, you will have to search hard to find Ortegano on any prospect list. After posting a 3.49 ERA as a 21yo in the CAR, the Braves have moved him to the SOL. In his first two SOL starts, Ortegano has a 0.69 ERA, a 0.846 WHIP, with a 13:2 K:BB ratio.

5) Henderson Alvarez, RHP, TOR – Quickly becoming one of the Midwest (MWL) League’s most dominating pitchers, the 19yo Alvarez has a 2.18 ERA since the beginning of July. Over the last two weeks, Alvarez has a 1.20 ERA, a .933 WHIP, and a 14:1 K:BB ratio.

6) Christian Friedrich, LHP – We felt Friedrich was the second best college pitcher available in the 2008 draft, but attending Eastern Kentucky kept him a bit under the radar screen entering the season. Friedrich dominated SAL hitters, fanning 66 in 45 IP. Going to the CAL, we thought he would face a stiffer challenge. So far, not so much. Friedrich hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in a game since June 10, and now has a 1.80 ERA in the hitter friendly California (CAL) League. Over the last two weeks he has put up a, 0.82 ERA, a 0.818 WHIP, with a 22:3 K:BB ratio. CAL hitters are batting .180 against him.

7) Wade Miley, LHP, ARZ – The 22yo Miley has been somewhat disappointing since the Diamondbacks made him a first round pick in the 2008 draft. After a 4.91 ERA in his 2008 debut, Miley posted a 4.33 ERA through June in the MWL. More is expected of a 22yo at that level, and Miley is showing signs of turning things around, allowing only 1 ER through his last three starts. Over that time Miley has a 0.417 WHIP, with a 11:2 K:BB ratio.

8) Wilmer Font, RHP, TEX – The Rangers were expecting big things from Font in 2008, but his season lasted all of 4 innings due to nagging injuries. The 19yo is healthy again and making MWL hitters pay for it. Over the last two weeks, Font has posted a 2.70 ERA, a 0.800 WHIP, with a 14:3 K:BB ratio. At 6’4”, 210 lbs, Font looks to add a couple of mph to his mid-90s fastball. There is significant upside here and his development of better command and refinement of his secondary offerings will determine his fate.

9) Casey Crosby, LHP, DET – The Tigers top prospect and arguably the top pitching prospect in the MWL, Crosby has been on a tremendous roll since the middle of June (1.46 ERA). Over the last two weeks, Crosby has posted a 0.96 ERA, a 0.750 ERA, and a 13:1 K:BB ratio. On the year MWL hitters are batting .204 against him and he has 107 strikeouts in 90 IP.

10) Scott Mathieson, RHP, PHI – After 2 Tommy John surgeries, Mathieson’s career was all but written off. The Phillies released and then resigned him and are in the process of making a reliever out of him. Albeit brief, the results have been spectacular thus far, as Mathieson has not allowed an earned run through his first 11 appearances, while fanning 20 in 16 innings. If he can prove that he is healthy, Mathieson could find himself in the Phillies’ bullpen in September.

The Nots –

1) Andrew Brackman, RHP, NYY – Easily one of the most disappointing stories of 2009, Brackman has a 1-11 record with a 6.70 ERA—as a 23yo in the SAL. Those are ‘on your way out baseball’ numbers, not numbers befitting a former first round draft pick, who was at one time considered the second best arm available in the 2007 draft. Over the last two weeks, Brackman has posted a 15.19 ERA, a 3.000 WHIP, with a 9:7 K:BB ratio. That performance earns him a top of the ‘Nots’ repeat performance.

2) Chris Valaika, SS, CIN – There were many that thought that Valaika would end up as the Reds’ everyday SS by the end of this season. Now they are wondering if he has enough tools to be an everyday player in the Big Leagues. A .083/.083/.104 over the last two weeks has dropped the 23yo’s OPS to .536 on the year. He isn’t really a SS at the next level, and there are serious questions as to how much he will hit.

3) Joshua Fields, RHP, SEA – The unfortunate part of achieving Major League success for a Minor League prospect is that part of success is dependent on opportunity that is sometimes outside of one’s control. For Fields, there is significant near-term opportunity available for him that he just isn’t capitalizing on right now. A 15.88 ERA, 3.000 WHIP, with a 6:5 K:BB ratio over the last two weeks, leaves Fields with a 6.48 ERA on the year.

4) Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL – After a disappointing stint in Milwaukee, the 23yo Gamel found himself back in Nashville where he has put up solid, yet unspectacular numbers. A .109/.226/.130 over the last two weeks, leaves Gamel’s OPS at .743 on the year. With a suspect glove, if Gamel doesn’t have a spectacular bat, then his future is murky.

5) Adrian Cardenas, 2B, OAK – The 21yo Cardenas earned himself a promotion to AAA by posting a .838 OPS in the Texas (TXL) League. After 20 games and a .450 OPS, it is beginning to look like it is a little too much, too soon. Cardenas has posted a .106/.106/.170 over the last two weeks.

6) Barry Enright, RHP, ARZ – The 23yo Enright was the Diamondbacks’ second round pick in 2007. Entering the season, he looked like he could become a back-of-the rotation innings eater. Another season, another solid but unspectacular result (4.38 ERA, .295 average against) may leave more questions than answers. We worry about a lack of a dominant out pitch and the lack of remaining upside projection. Over the last two weeks, Enright has posted a 12.60 ERA, a 2.900 WHIP and a 7:3 K:BB ratio.

7) Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS – No other elite level prospect has been as disappointing this season as has Anderson. That being said, he is still just 21yo and is competing at AA where his .700 OPS is nearly .260 points lower than his 2008 performance. More disturbing is his seemingly AWOL power stroke. Anderson has always had a propensity to strikeout (roughly 25% K rate) and improving that will be required to be successful as he moves up. No one is writing him off at this point, but his season has to be categorized as disturbing. A .113/.190/.151 over the last two weeks.

8) Oscar Tejeda, SS, BOS – Signed out of the Dominican Republic as one of the highest bonused Latin American 16yos in 2006, Tejeda has yet, offensively, to live up to expectations, as he entered 2009 with a career OPS of .685. Making a return trip to the SAL, his .612 OPS is actually slightly worse than it was in his first go round. Over the last two weeks, Tejeda has posted a .094/.121/.125.

9) Nick Green, RHP, LAA – The Angels returned Green to the Pacific Coast (PCL) League this year, where the results didn’t change much from 2008. In over 200 PCL innings, opposing hitters are batting nearly .300 against him. Over the last two weeks, Green has posted a 11.25 ERA and a 1.875 WHIP, earning himself a demotion to the SOL. At 24yo, Green needs to get things figured out in a hurry, or his next stop may be out of the game.

10) Ryan Mount, 2B, LAA – The Angels’ second round pick in 2005, Mount entered the season coming off of his best season as a pro, where he posted an .849 OPS in the CAL. This season, TXL pitchers have not been as accommodating, as Mount’s .125/.222/.150 over his last 45 ABs leaves his OPS at .617 on the year. Nagging injuries have troubled Mount throughout his career, as he has never appeared in more than 85 games in any season, and won’t this year either. Still only 22yo, there is plenty of time to get things figured out, but 2009 has definitely been a step backward.

Schedule Update

I will be out of town until Monday, August 10th and the site will not have any new postings until I return.