Wednesday, October 27, 2010

2010 Performance Evaluations – Mexican League Pitchers

Juan Oramas was the player we noted from last year’s MXL pitchers



As we are working on our team prospect lists, I thought we would provide a little diversion by posting the Mexican Summer League performance scores this week. We will take a look at Division I baseball performances next week, before we begin our team-by-team look at the prospect rankings.

A couple of things to remember about our Performance evaluations: 1) these are not necessarily prospect lists. While it is fair to assume that the best prospects will put up the best performances, these lists focus only on a player’s offensive performance while they were in the league during the 2010 season. They do not consider things like defensive ability, offense vs. required offense for a given position, or projectability. Prospect evaluation is a combination of art and science and this is the science part of that equation. Later in the fall, we will breakdown each team’s ‘prospects’ and rank them in ‘prospect value’ order. 2) What it is, is a comparative statistical look at each players performance, placed in context of their age, their home park, and the league. We rate each player in the five categories that we have found most significant in predicting future Major League performance. The players that rate the highest, have assembled the best ‘Performance’ in these areas. For a more detailed look at the statistics involved you can refer to previous articles on the site (http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-it-yourself-quantitative-examination.html).

A quick note about the rankings…The TOTAL is the weighted numerical value of the combined statistics that we use. It is scaled for the level of play. Typically, a player with a positive score will rank in the top 1% - 2% of all Minor League players. After the total we list the sub-scores in 4 areas of significance. These scores are presented, for ease of understanding, in a typical 20-80 scouting format. They represent how the individual player performed in those areas in relation to THE LEAGUE in question. A score of 50 represents league average. Players listed as ‘DNQ’ did not qualify for the rankings because of their limited playing time, but we felt their scores were worth noting. If you have further questions on the methodology, feel free to email me at baseballnumbers@ix.netcom.com.




2010 Mexican League Top Pitching Performances


Name Team POS Total HR Rate Control Dominance Stamina
1 ) Angel Araiza , CHI , R - 0.38 … 74 … 54 … 69 … 67
2 ) Marco Duarte , MEX , R - (0.08) … 72 … 63 … 80 … 35
3 ) Alfonso Sanchez , REY , R - (0.11) … 56 … 70 … 55 … 77
4 ) Marco Tovar , REY , L - (0.16) … 76 … 43 … 52 … 65
5 ) Edwin Tellez , MVA , R - (0.18) … 54 … 37 … 49 … 55
6 ) Alan Guerrero , REY , R - (0.27) … 50 … 72 … 79 … 30
7 ) Edwin Salas , TAB , R - (0.30) … 45 … 64 … 61 … 46
8 ) Alejandro Garrido , SAL , L - (0.31) … 61 … 67 … 74 … 69
9 ) Sergio Valenzuela , OAX , R - (0.34) … 54 … 62 … 71 … 79
10 ) Irving Jimenez , MVA , R - (0.41) … 72 … 56 … 39 … 73
11 ) Juan Noriega , MVA , R - (0.50) … 70 … 61 … 60 … 28
12 ) Adrian Ramirez , MTY , R - (0.52) … 40 … 70 … 70 … 44
13 ) Rolando Valdez , OAX , R - (0.52) … 37 … 42 … 69 … 76
14 ) Andres Meza , PUE , R - (0.57) … 71 … 72 … 43 … 78
15 ) Hector Velazquez , CAM , R - (0.63) … 59 … 53 … 48 … 55
16 ) Salvador Robles , MEX , L - (0.66) … 64 … 72 … 73 … 58
17 ) Efrain Nevares , SAL , L - (0.67) … 57 … 20 … 34 … 58


DNQ Jorge Dryjanski , SAL , R - (0.43) … 68 … 24 … 79 … 27
DNQ Enrique Gomez , TIG , R - (0.70) … 60 … 63 … 63 … 38

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

2010 Performance Evaluations – Mexican League Hitters

Japhet Amador posted the best MXL performance for the second straight season




As we are working on our team prospect lists, I thought we would provide a little diversion by posting the Mexican Summer League performance scores this week. We will take a look at Division I baseball performances next week, before we begin our team-by-team look at the prospect rankings. This year’s Mexican League was once again led by a player that we have been touting for a couple of seasons now—Japhet Amador.

A couple of things to remember about our Performance evaluations: 1) these are not necessarily prospect lists. While it is fair to assume that the best prospects will put up the best performances, these lists focus only on a player’s offensive performance while they were in the league during the 2010 season. They do not consider things like defensive ability, offense vs. required offense for a given position, or projectability. Prospect evaluation is a combination of art and science and this is the science part of that equation. Later in the fall, we will breakdown each team’s ‘prospects’ and rank them in ‘prospect value’ order. 2) What it is, is a comparative statistical look at each players performance, placed in context of their age, their home park, and the league. We rate each player in the five categories that we have found most significant in predicting future Major League performance. The players that rate the highest, have assembled the best ‘Performance’ in these areas. For a more detailed look at the statistics involved you can refer to previous articles on the site (http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-it-yourself-quantitative-examination.html).

A quick note about the rankings…The TOTAL is the weighted numerical value of the combined statistics that we use. It is scaled for the level of play. Typically, a player with a positive score will rank in the top 1% - 2% of all Minor League players. After the total we list the sub-scores in 4 areas of significance. These scores are presented, for ease of understanding, in a typical 20-80 scouting format. They represent how the individual player performed in those areas in relation to THE LEAGUE in question. A score of 50 represents league average. Players listed as ‘DNQ’ did not qualify for the rankings because of their limited playing time, but we felt their scores were worth noting. If you have further questions on the methodology, feel free to email me at baseballnumbers@ix.netcom.com.




2010 Mexican League Top Hitting Performances


Name Team POS TOTAL Reach Base Strike Zone Judgement Power Speed
1 ) Japhet Amador , MEX , 1B - 0.41 … 58 … 51 … 79 … 40
2 ) Leonardo Heras , REY , CF - 0.34 … 70 … 68 … 39 … 71
3 ) Antonio Lamas , MVA , SS - (0.16) … 31 … 61 … 48 … 65
4 ) Cesar Osuna , CAM , 3B - (0.27) … 21 … 73 … 46 … 38
5 ) Roberto Valencia , CAM , RF - (0.37) … 73 … 76 … 26 … 53
6 ) Jose Orozco , VER , OF - (0.47) … 36 … 26 … 66 … 36
7 ) Sandy Madera , YUC , 1B - (0.49) … 73 … 68 … 80 … 77
8 ) Ramon Ramirez , LAG , OF - (0.55) … 52 … 28 … 47 … 45
9 ) Jose Chavez , VER , 2B - (0.58) … 70 … 45 … 69 … 75
10 ) Ricardo Serrano , PUE , 2B - (0.65) … 34 … 60 … 68 … 38
11 ) Eduardo Arredondo , MEX , CF - (0.66) … 68 … 78 … 37 … 72
12 ) Sergio Perez , MTY , OF - (0.67) … 62 … 40 … 30 … 50
13 ) Sergio Garcia , VER , OF - (0.69) … 23 … 20 … 51 … 80


DNQ Ali Solis , TIG , C - 0.30 … 62 … 47 … 79 … 31
DNQ Eliezer Ortiz , PUE , OF - (0.55) … 22 … 31 … 78 … 72

Thursday, October 21, 2010

How Did We Do? Trying to Make a Quantitative Assessment of a Subjective Topic (part III)

Would the addition of players like Carlos Triunfel have changed things much?



One of the complaints that we have heard was that in our assessment I included ten extra players that Baseball America and Diamond Futures had highly rated and that somehow advantaged those sources. The reality is that I had only intended to compare BA and Diamond Futures when I began. Once I had the 120 players, I didn’t want to go too terribly deeper because most of the sources only rated 100-110 players. But just to try to keep things as level as possible, here are the ten highest rated players by each source that aren’t in the other five sources consensus Top 100. For BA and Diamond Futures, this is how the players got onto the original list.

Baseball America

1) Nick Hagadone – 44
2) Jason Knapp – 66
3) Alex Colome – 68
4) Brett Jackson – 74
5) Josh Reddick – 75
6) Chad James – 78
7) Travis d’Arnuad -81
8) Adam Moore – 83
9) Austin Romine – 86
10) Mat Gamel -89


Diamond Futures

1) Alex Liddi – 48
2) Bobby Borchering – 52
3) Tim Alderson – 58
4) Jaime Garcia – 61
5) Matt Dominguez – 63
6) Wil Meyers – 64
7) Ryan Kalish – 66
8) Juan Francisco – 78
9) Manny Banuelos – 85
10) Dayan Viciedo -90


Keith Law

1) Carlos Triunfel -44
2) Jay Jackson -50
3) Anthony Rizzo -53
4) Zach Stewart – 55
5) Daryl Jones – 59
6) Matt Dominguez – 62
7) Matt Sweeney – 68
8) Michael Brantley – 71
9) Randall Delgado – 85
10) Ryan Kalish -86


Baseball Prospectus

1) Alex Colome – 42
2) Scott Sizemore – 57
3) Josh Reddick – 58
4) Hak-Ju Lee – 63
5) James Darnell – 64
6) Michael Ynoa – 66
7) Ryan Kalish – 76
8) Philippe Aumont – 78
9) Wil Myers – 83
10) Jordan Walden – 89


Hardball Times

1) Scott Sizemore - 30
2) Carlos Triunfel – 42
3) Jason Knapp – 46
4) Danny Duffy – 50
5) Eric Young, Jr – 56
6) Jemile Weeks – 59
7) Mike Minor – 67
8) Brandon Erbe – 69
9) Danny Espinosa – 70
10) Matt Hobgod – 72


FanGraphs

1) Andrew Cashner – 24
2) Austine Romine – 49
3) Brad Lincoln – 54
4) Zach McAllister -61
5) Zach Stewart – 62
6) Brandon Erbe -70
7) Jordan Walden – 78
8) Junichi Tazawa – 72
9) Brandon Allen -74
10) Thomas Neal – 75


I have attempted to color code the players that weren’t part of the original list. What should become relatively evident, is that outside of Baseball Prospectus—which would have had a neutral effect, making the list deeper by including the ‘outliers’ from the other sources would have negatively impacted them. If I had included them, these would have been the twenty additional players that weren’t part of the original list:


CONSENSUS ) PLAYER , POS , TEAM - BA … KL … HT … BP … FG … DF
106 ) Triunfel, Carlos , 3B , SEA - NR … 44 … 42 … NR … NR … 144
109 ) Brantley, Michael , OF , CLE - NR … 71 … 119 … NR … NR … 109
110 ) Martin, Ethan , RHP , LAD - NR … NR … 93 … 98 … 80 … 119
111 ) Heisey, Chris , OF , CIN - NR … 88 … 183 … NR … 95 … 157
112 ) Desmond, Ian , SS , WAS - NR … 103 … 163 … NR … 84 … 142
117 ) Walden, Jordan , RHP , LAA - NR … NR … 157 … 89 … 71 … 107
118 ) Stewart, Zach , RHP , TOR - NR … 55 … 194 … NR … 62 … 172
119 ) Ynoa, Michael , RHP , OAK - NR … NR … 106 … 66 … NR … 98
120 ) Melville, Tim , RHP , KC - NR … NR … 87 … 93 … NR … 97
123 ) Erbe, Brandon , RHP , BAL - NR … NR … 69 … NR … 70 … 153
124 ) Minor, Mike , LHP , ATL - NR … NR … 67 … NR … NR … 131
125 ) Lincoln, Brad , RHP , PIT - NR … 105 … 137 … NR … 54 … 224
134 ) Espinosa, Danny , SS , WAS - NR … NR … 70 … 101 … NR … 207
135 ) McAllister, Zach , RHP , NYY - NR … NR … NR … NR … 61 … 112
138 ) Hobgood, Matt , LHP , BAL - NR … NR … 72 … NR … NR … 169
140 ) Jones, Daryl , OF , STL - NR … 59 … NR … NR … NR … 122
143 ) Rizzo, Anthony , 1B , BOS - NR … 53 … NR … NR … NR … 136
147 ) Young Jr., Eric , 2B , COL - NR … NR … 56 … NR … NR … 211
148 ) Weeks, Jemile , 2B , OAK - NR … NR … 59 … NR … NR … 218
150 ) Sweeney, Matt , 3B , TB - NR … 68 … NR … NR … NR … 155


Applying the same methodology that was originally used would have resulted in the following adjustments:

Baseball America +5
Baseball Prospectus +4
Diamond Futures +4
Keith Law +2
FanGraphs +1
HardballTimes -4

So even with a list of 140 players, it wouldn’t have changed the rankings all that much:

Diamond Futures – 58
Keith Law – 47
FanGraphs – 44
Baseball Prospectus – 31
Hardball Times – 30
Baseball America -30

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

How Did We Do? Trying to Make a Quantitative Assessment of a Subjective Topic (part II)

Mike Trout is likely to enter the 2011 season as the #1 prospect in baseball




Yesterday we laid out how we selected and grouped the players for our analysis. Today we will actually put some numbers behind it. But before we begin, here is a, somewhat, subjective look at each sources’ Best/Worsts (Listed with where they ranked the player, followed by the consensus rank). The picks highlighted here focus on how the source did in relationship to the consensus measurement of the group. In other words, identifying that Stephen Strasburg was going to be good doesn’t provide as much value as identifying that Eric Hosmer was still an elite prospect, even though a lot of people were down on his 2009 performance.

Baseball America

10 Best Picks
1) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
2) Hector Rondon, NR (64)
3) Josh Vitters, 70 (42)
4) Grant Green, 52 (70)
5) Zach Britton, 63 (75)
6) Ike Davis, 62 (69)
7) Starlin Castro, 16 (22)
8) Mike Stanton, 3 (4)
9) Stephen Strasburg, 2 (2)
10) Jason Heyward, 1 (1)

10 Worst Picks
1) Alcides Escobar, 12 (23)
2) Michael Saunders, 30 (63)
3) Todd Frazier, 43 (79)
4) Nick Hagadone, 44 (88)
5) Eric Hosmer, 105 (78)
6) Mike Moustakas, 80 (46)
7) Adam Moore, 83 (122)
8) Manny Banuelos, NR (116)
9) Jose Tabata, NR (52)

T- 10) Wil Meyers, 105 (107)

T- 10) Josh Bell, 37 (48)



It was difficult coming up with ten picks where BA was ahead of the pack on and difficult limiting the worst list to only ten. All-in-all it wasn’t a very good year for the ‘industry leader’.


Baseball Prospectus

10 Best Picks
1) Julio Teheran, 33 (44)
2) Austin Jackson, 49 (60)
3) Mike Leake, 59 (72)
4) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
5) Mike Trout, 53 (67)
6) Arodys Vizcaino, 45 (66)
7) Wil Meyers, 83 (107)
8) Hector Rondon, NR (64)
9) Tyler Flowers, 72 (52)
10) Jio Mier, 97 (73)

10 Worst Picks
1) Eric Hosmer, NR (78)
2) Michael Taylor, 20 (32)
3) Donovan Tate, 29 (55)
4) Scott Sizemore, 57 (83)
5) Mike Moustakas, 79 (46)
6) Chris Withrow, 40 (65)
7) Jordan Lyles, NR (71)
8) Jhoulys Chacin, NR (74)
9) Jaime Garcia, NR (101)
10) Starlin Castro, 37 (22)

I have not performed any objective analysis of this, so I am hesitant to throw this out for consideration, but, BA had far fewer ‘extreme’ positions than did most of the other sources. When I totaled up who had the player rated highest and who had the player rated lowest, BA held only 12% of the extreme positions. The expected value—all things being equal—would be 17%. Hardball Times, on the other hand, held the extreme position 21% of the time (followed by Keith Law/Baseball Prospectus at 19%, Fan Graphs at 17% and Diamond Futures at 13%. A couple of possible explanations are that BA reaches an ‘expert’ consensus in coming up with their rankings, so they are likely to be less extreme…or….because BA is one of the more widely read sources, their ‘perspectives’ filter into the mainstream to such a degree that the other sources factor in, likely unknowingly, some sort of ‘BA bias’ into their rankings. Whatever the case, something is at play in this regard.


The significance is that it is a lot easier to find ‘extreme hits and misses’ for the other sources. Baseball Prospectus was no exception as they did well by taking extreme positions on Julio Teheran, Austin Jackson and Mike Leake—who all exceeded expectations; and got clobbered with their positions on players like Eric Hosmer, Michael Taylor, Donovan Tate and Scott Sizemore.


Keith Law

10 Best Picks
1) Eric Hosmer, 34 (78)
2) Mike Trout, 49 (67)
3) Acides Escobar, 54 (23)
4) Donovan Tate, NR (55)
5) James Darnell, NR (87)
6) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
7) Arodys Vizcaino, 43 (66)
8) Scott Sizemore, 107 (83)
9) Zach Britton, 25 (75)
10) Jhoulys Chacin, 48 (74)

10 Worst Picks
1) Wil Meyers, NR (107)
2) Mike Montgomery, 75 (33)
3) Pedro Alvarez, 35 (10)
4) Jay Jackson, 50 (100)
5) Tim Beckham, 29 (45)
6) Josh Vitters, 30 (42)
7) Matt Moore, 81 (36)
8) Jaime Garcia, NR (101)
9) Grant Green, 93 (70)

10) Wilson Ramos, 42 (58)


Those that regularly read Mr. Law undoubtedly understand his dogged adherence to his opinions. That fact is evident here, as his dogmatic belief in Eric Hosmer was rewarded, as was his dislike for favorites like Donovan Tate and Alcides Escobar. However Keith Law has never believed in Pedro Alvarez—seemingly a mistake, and his positional concerns regarding Wil Meyer created a big miss in 2010. On balance, though, he likely comes out more right than wrong in his extreme views.


FanGraphs

10 Best Picks
1) Eric Hosmer, 45 (78)
2) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
3) Michael Taylor, 63 (32)
4) Donovan Tate, NR (55)
5) Todd Frazier, NR (79)
6) Jordan Lyles, 58 (71)
7) Scott Sizemore, NR (83)
8) James Darnell, NR (87)
9) Mike Moustakas, 41 (46)
10) Mike Montgomery, 29 (33)

10 Worst Picks
1) Christian Friedrich, 11 (24)
2) Tim Beckham, 27 (45)
3) Grant Green, NR (70)
4) Wil Meyers, NR (107)
5) Mike Leake, 92 (72)
6) Jaime Garcia, NR (101)
7) Miguel Sano, NR (86)
8) Manny Banuelos, NR (116)
9) Tyler Flowers, 39 (52)
10) Matt Moore, 52 (36)

Admittedly, I don’t know much about FanGraphs’ methodology. One of the most quantitative sites, I am not certain whether or not that flows into their list. What I do know as that they held positive contrarian positions on players like Hosmer, Alderson, Michael Tayor and Donovan Tate; but missed identifying players like Grant Green, Wil Meyers and Jaime Garcia and their placing Friedrich at #11 may have been one of the worst misses on any list.


Hardball Times

10 Best Picks
1) Mike Moustakas, 23 (46)
2) Eric Hosmer, 47 (78)
3) Jhoulys Chacin, 20 (74)
4) Manny Banuelos, 86 (116)
5) Michael Taylor, 63 (32)
6) Casey Crosby, 76 (39)
7) Todd Frazier, 158 (79)
8) Nick Hagadone, NR (88)
9) Casey Kelly, 35 (19)
10) Shelby Miller, 28 (40)

10 Worst Picks
1) Donovan Tate, 9 (55)
2) Michael Saunders, 16 (63)
3) Hector Rondon, 17 (64)
4) Christian Friedrich, 14 (24)
5) Scott Sizemore, 30 (83)
6) Mike Trout, 92 (67)
7) Arodys Vizcaino, 116 (66)
8) Austin Jackson, 138 (60)
9) Mike Stanton, 15 (4)
10) Zach Britton, 120 (75)

It comes as little surprise to me how well they did at the top of their ‘Best’ list. They march to a ‘different beat’ over there, and, while it is reflected with their ‘Best’ picks, it is also reflected in their ‘Worst’ ones, as no list is as bad at the top as Tate, Saunders, Rondon and Friedrich—all with Top 20 rankings.


Diamond Futures

10 Best Picks
1) Mike Trout, 43 (67)
2) Wil Meyers, 64 (107)
3) Jaime Garcia, 61 (101)
4) Manny Banuelos, 85 (116)
5) Scott Sizemore, 193 (83)
6) Tyler Flowers, 186 (52)
7) Michael Saunders, 121 (63)
8) Tim Beckham, 82 (45)
9) Jose Tabata, 56 (92)
10) Dayan Viciedo, 90 (131)

10 Worst Picks
1) Tim Alderson, 58 (97)
2) Ike Davis, 158 (69)
3) Chris Withrow, 42 (68)
4) Shelby Miller, 73 (40)
5) Hector Rondon, 40 (64)
6) Jio Mier, 50 (73)
7) Noel Arguelles, 96 (144)
8) Eric Hosmer, 100 (78)
9) Julio Teheran, 65 (44)
10) Aaron Hicks, 15 (25)

The only real comment, for now, that I will make regarding our picks is that each of the 10 ‘Best’ picks represent the extreme positioning (either highest or lowest) for each of these players.


In an attempt to quantify this, what I have done is examine the three groupings that I posted yesterday. For the middle group of fifty players that ‘met expectations’, I awarded 1 point for every player that was ranked within ten positions (+ or -) of the consensus ranking. For those players that improved their prospect status, I awarded 1 point if they were ranked more than five places higher than the consensus and deducted a point if they were ranked 15 or more places below the consensus (i.e. you get a point for being ahead of the curve, but you lose a point if you didn’t like the player and they proved even better than expectations). Finally, for those players that saw their prospect status tumble, I awarded a point if they were ranked more than five places lower than the consensus, and I deducted a point if they were ranked 15 or more places higher than the consensus. Below is the summary of results:


Source -- Total …... Improved … Met … Declined

Diamond Futures -- 54 …... 8 (15/7) … 32 … 14 (20/6)

Keith Law (ESPN) -- 45 …... 6 (12/6) … 19 … 20 (23/3)

FanGraphs.com -- 43 …... 2 (9/7) …... 26 …... 15 (20/5)

HardBall Times -- 34 …... -4 (9/13) ...… 21 ...… 17 (24/7)

Baseball Prospectus --27 …... 0 (9/9) ...… 22 ...… 5 (13/8)

Baseball America -- 25 …... -4 (4/8) …... 27 ...… 2 (11/9)

The numbers in parenthesis are the breakdown between plus points and minus points in those categories. As should have been apparent by examining the ‘Best Pick’ lists, Diamond Futures finished on top, in large part, because of their ability to identify players that are underrated by the other sources. Players like Mike Trout, Wil Meyers, Jaime Garcia and Manny Banuelos didn’t really surprise us with their performances this year. If you are a regular reader of this space, you will find the contrast even more stark when you compare players at the lower levels. Our knack is identifying players earlier than most, and this has been the case around here since we were ahead of the curve on Albert Pujols in 2001. Our track record is long and solid in this area. Keith Law, on the other hand, performs best in identifying ‘overrated’ prospects, going 23-3 in the grouping of players whose value declined this year. Both Diamond Futures and Keith Law identified 35 players that were ‘wrongly’ categorized entering the year. In a head-to-head comparison between Keith Law and Diamond Futures, of the prospect risers, Law placed the better ranking on 14 of the players while Diamond Futures placed the better ranking on 17 players. Of the players whose stock has fallen it was 17-17. So Diamond Futures was slightly better overall. On the negative side, it was a down year for some of the more well-known names in the business. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus didn’t fair very well. It is only one season, and as I pointed out earlier, the true value of these prospects won’t be really known for another 5-10 years, so I wouldn’t draw any conclusions from this simplistic analysis. But I will point out that, both, BA and BP have far more reaches into the traditional scouting communities than do the other sources. I have a more empirical study that I am currently wrapping up that explores that angle to a greater depth.

I didn’t compile this to ‘blow our own horn’. I would have preferred that some ‘independent’ group tracked/analyzed these things. But we strongly believe in accountability. Anyone can have an opinion, but all opinions aren’t of equal value. At Diamond Futures we have been doing this for more than a dozen years. We have looked at how our results stack up with the ‘rest’ and understand where we rank.

Nor I am trying to imply that we are smarter, better informed, or even luckier than the ‘rest’. Simply stated...we use a system, one that has been revised continually for more than a decade. Our rankings are merely a product of that system and the system works. This is just a small attempt to demonstrate that, but those of you who have followed us for awhile now already understand that. All of that being said, if we weren't better than the 'rest', didn't offer something different, there would be no need for us. If you are new to this site, hopefully you will remember that when you are looking for prospect information this winter.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

How Did We Do? Trying to Make a Quantitative Assessment of a Subjective Topic

Heyward had the pressure of being #1, but more than held his own


One of the things about the business of prospect analysis is that by the time players actually determine what type of Major League career they will have no one remembers what you said about them. This is sometimes good (John Stephens) and sometimes unfortunate (Albert Pujols). So while we are getting ready for our winter prospect lists, I decided to take a look back at how some of the more major prospect analysts ranked players this past season. A couple of caveats…realize that all we are doing is comparing where players were ranked at the beginning of the season vs. how their prospect status changed over the course of the year. Some of the sources that don’t look very good right now, could well end up having the last laugh when all is said and done.

As to the methodology…I assembled a pre-season Top 100 list from a consensus of six sources. They are: Baseball America, Keith Law, Baseball Prospectus, Hardball Times, Fan Graphs and our very own rankings. To that I added the ten players that were the highest rated prospects by Baseball America that weren’t in the original 100. Then I added our ten highest rated players not already on the list. This gave us the following pool of 120 players:


CONSENSUS PLAYER POS TEAM
1 ) Heyward, Jason , OF , ATL
2 ) Strasburg, Stephen , RHP , WAS
3 ) Jennings, Desmond , OF , TB
4 ) Stanton, Mike , OF , FLA
5 ) Posey, Buster , C , SF
6 ) Montero, Jesus , C , NYY
7 ) Santana, Carlos , C , CLE
8 ) Feliz, Neftali , RHP , TEX
9 ) Matusz, Brian , LHP , BAL
10 ) Alvarez, Pedro , 3B , PIT
11 ) Smoak, Justin , 1B , TEX
12 ) Perez, Martin , LHP , TEX
13 ) Hellickson, Jeremy , RHP , TB
14 ) Bumgarner, Madison , LHP , SF
15 ) Ackley, Dustin , OF , SEA
16 ) Chapman, Aroldis , LHP , CIN
17 ) Matzek, Tyler , LHP , COL
18 ) Morrison, Logan , 1B , FLA
19 ) Kelly, Casey , RHP , BOS
20 ) Carter, Chris , 1B , OAK
21 ) Brown, Domonic , OF , PHI
22 ) Castro, Starlin , SS , CHC
23 ) Escobar, Alcides , SS , MIL
24 ) Friedrich, Christian , LHP , COL
25 ) Hicks, Aaron , OF , MIN
26 ) Wallace, Brett , 3B , TOR
27 ) Westmoreland, Ryan , OF , BOS
28 ) Drabek, Kyle , RHP , TOR
29 ) Davis, Wade , RHP , TB
30 ) Chisenhall, Lonnie , SS , CLE
31 ) Norris, Derek , C , WAS
32 ) Taylor, Michael , OF , OAK
33 ) Montgomery, Mike , LHP , KC
34 ) Parker, Jarrod , RHP , AZ
35 ) Freeman, Freddie , 1B , ATL
36 ) Moore, Matt , LHP , TB
37 ) Turner, Jacob , RHP , DET
38 ) Mejia, Jenrry , RHP , NYM
39 ) Crosby, Casey , LHP , DET
40 ) Miller, Shelby , RHP , STL
41 ) Castro, Jason , C , HOU
42 ) Vitters, Josh , 3B , CHC
43 ) Gordon, Dee , SS , LAD
44 ) Teheran, Julio , RHP , ATL
45 ) Beckham, Tim , SS , TB
46 ) Moustakas, Mike , 3B , KC
47 ) Martinez, Fernando , OF , NYM
48 ) Bell, Josh , 3B , BAL
49 ) Decker, Jaff , OF , SD
50 ) Lawrie, Brett , C , MIL
51 ) Alonso, Yonder , 1B , CIN
52 ) Flowers, Tyler , C , CHW
53 ) Crow, Aaron , RHP , KC
54 ) Conger, Hank , C , LAA
55 ) Tate, Donavan , OF , SD
56 ) Castro, Simon , RHP , SD
57 ) Gibson, Kyle , RHP , MIN
58 ) Ramos, Wilson , C , MIN
59 ) Scheppers, Tanner , RHP , TEX
60 ) Jackson, Austin , OF , DET
61 ) Wheeler, Zach , RHP , SF
62 ) Hudson, Daniel , RHP , CHW
63 ) Saunders, Michael , OF , SEA
64 ) Rondon, Hector , RHP , CLE
65 ) Withrow, Chris , RHP , LAD
66 ) Vizcaino, Arodys , RHP , ATL
67 ) Trout, Mike , OF , LAA
68 ) Arrieta, Jake , RHP , BAL
69 ) Davis, Ike , 1B , NYM
70 ) Green, Grant , SS , OAK
71 ) Lyles, Jordan , RHP , HOU
72 ) Leake, Mike , RHP , CIN
73 ) Mier, Jiovanni , SS , HOU
74 ) Chacin, Jhoulys , RHP , COL
75 ) Britton, Zach , LHP , BAL
76 ) Flores, Wilmer , SS , NYM
77 ) Sanchez, Tony , C , PIT
78 ) Hosmer, Eric , 1B , KC
79 ) Frazier, Todd , SS , CIN
80 ) Mitchell, Jared , OF , CHW
81 ) Storen, Drew , RHP , WAS
82 ) White, Alex , RHP , CLE
83 ) Sizemore, Scott , 2B , DET
84 ) Revere, Ben , OF , MIN
85 ) Brignac, Reid , SS , TB
86 ) Sano, Miguel , SS , MIN
87 ) Darnell, James , 3B , SD
88 ) Hagadone, Nick , LHP , CLE
89 ) Anderson, Lars , 1B , BOS
90 ) Knapp, Jason , RHP , CLE
91 ) Reckling, Trevor , LHP , LAA
92 ) Tabata, Jose , OF , PIT
93 ) Dominguez, Matt , 3B , FLA
94 ) Cashner, Andrew , RHP , CHC
95 ) Duffy, Danny , LHP , KC
96 ) Tazawa, Junichi , RHP , BOS
97 ) Alderson, Tim , RHP , PIT
98 ) Colome, Alex , RHP , TB
99 ) Allen, Brandon , 1B , AZ
100 ) Jackson, Jay , RHP , CHC
101 ) Garcia, Jaime , LHP , STL
102 ) Aumont, Phillippe , RHP , PHI
103 ) Lee, Hak-Ju , SS , CHC
104 ) Kalish, Ryan , OF , BOS
105 ) Neal, Thomas , OF , SF
107 ) Myers, Wil , C , KC
108 ) Romine, Austin , C , NYY
113 ) Jackson, Brett , OF , CHC
114 ) Liddi, Alex , 3B , SEA
115 ) Reddick, Josh , OF , BOS
116 ) Banuelos, Manny , LHP , NYY
121 ) James, Chad , LHP , FLA
122 ) Moore, Adam , C , SEA
127 ) Delgado, Randall , RHP , ATL
128 ) Borchering, Bobby , 3B , AZ
131 ) Viciedo, Dayan , 3B , CHW
136 ) d'Arnaud, Travis , C , TOR
139 ) Francisco, Juan , 3B , CIN
141 ) Gamel, Mat , 3B , MIL
144 ) Arguelles, Noel , LHP , KC



Now, when I started, I just intended to compare our ratings with Baseball America’s; but since I had used four additional sources, I decided to examine each one. What I did was I divided the player pool into three groups: One group (35 players) that had improved their prospect status over the course of the season, One group (35 players) whose prospect status has taken a bit of a fall—this is in comparison to the pre-season consensus rankings—and the remaining group (50 players) that pretty much met the expectations that the consensus 'we' had for them going into the year. Yes…this is somewhat subjective, but when you take a look at the groupings below, I don’t think there is too much to disagree with here. I have listed the three groups separately, as well as where each of the sources ranked the player. (BA=Baseball America; KL=Keith Law; HT = The Hardball Times; BP=Baseball Prospectus; FG=Fan Graphs; Diamond Futures)


Players That Improved Their Prospect Status

CONSENSUS PLAYER POS TEAM... BA ... KL ... HT ... BP ... FG ... DF
1 ) Heyward, Jason , OF , ATL … 1 … 1 … 1 … 2 … 1 … 1
2 ) Strasburg, Stephen , RHP , WAS … 2 … 2 … 2 … 1 … 2 … 2
4 ) Stanton, Mike , OF , FLA … 3 … 5 … 15 … 5 … 4 … 7
5 ) Posey, Buster , C , SF … 7 … 4 … 11 … 9 … 5 … 4
7 ) Santana, Carlos , C , CLE … 10 … 3 … 7 … 8 … 7 … 8
10 ) Alvarez, Pedro , 3B , PIT … 8 … 35 … 10 … 6 … 10 … 3
13 ) Hellickson, Jeremy , RHP , TB … 18 … 17 … 19 … 13 … 14 … 14
22 ) Castro, Starlin , SS , CHC … 16 … 12 … 44 … 37 … 25 … 16
33 ) Montgomery, Mike , LHP , KC … 39 … 75 … 54 … 36 … 29 … 28
36 ) Moore, Matt , LHP , TB … 35 … 81 … 43 … 41 … 52 … 38
40 ) Miller, Shelby , RHP , STL … 50 … 38 … 28 … 38 … 42 … 73
44 ) Teheran, Julio , RHP , ATL … 51 … 63 … 58 … 33 … 37 … 65
46 ) Moustakas, Mike , 3B , KC … 80 … 69 … 23 … 79 … 41 … 60
57 ) Gibson, Kyle , RHP , MIN … 61 … 89 … 90 … 71 … 77 … 41
60 ) Jackson, Austin , OF , DET … 76 … 70 … 138 … 49 … 51 … 92
66 ) Vizcaino, Arodys , RHP , ATL … 69 … 43 … 116 … 45 … 57 … 67
67 ) Trout, Mike , OF , LAA … 85 … 49 … 92 … 53 … 81 … 43
69 ) Davis, Ike , 1B , NYM … 62 … 64 … 94 … 87 … 63 … 158
70 ) Green, Grant , SS , OAK … 52 … 93 … 48 … 86 … - … 30
71 ) Lyles, Jordan , RHP , HOU … 91 … 60 … 38 … - … 58 … 89
72 ) Leake, Mike , RHP , CIN … 72 … 72 … 60 … 59 … 92 … 72
74 ) Chacin, Jhoulys , RHP , COL … 71 … 48 … 20 … - … 69 … 86
75 ) Britton, Zach , LHP , BAL … 63 … 25 … 120 … 73 … 78 … 94
78 ) Hosmer, Eric , 1B , KC … 105 … 34 … 47 … - … 45 … 100
81 ) Storen, Drew , RHP , WAS … 92 … 92 … 124 … 60 … - … 54
86 ) Sano, Miguel , SS , MIN … 94 … 97 … 99 … 35 … - … 76
92 ) Tabata, Jose , OF , PIT … - … 57 … 186 … 90 … 93 … 56
94 ) Cashner, Andrew , RHP , CHC … 95 … 79 … - … - … 24 … 104
101 ) Garcia, Jaime , LHP , STL … 105 … - … 109 … - … - … 61
104 ) Kalish, Ryan , OF , BOS … - … 86 … 145 … 76 … - … 66
107 ) Myers, Wil , C , KC … 105 … - … 130 … 83 … - … 64
116 ) Banuelos, Manny , LHP , NYY … - … 96 … 86 … - … - … 85
127 ) Delgado, Randall , RHP , ATL … - … 85 … 110 … - … - … 105
131 ) Viciedo, Dayan , 3B , CHW … - … - … - … - … - … 90
139 ) Francisco, Juan , 3B , CIN … - … - … 103 … - … - … 78

The top four names on this list all entered the season rated among the top five prospects, but I think it is hard to argue that each of them surpassed even the lofty expectations that were held for them with their remarkable Big League debuts.



Players Whose Prospect Status Has Fallen


CONSENSUS PLAYER POS TEAM... BA ... KL ... HT ... BP ... FG ... DF
3 ) Jennings, Desmond , OF , TB … 6 … 6 … 4 … 7 … 3 … 5
19 ) Kelly, Casey , RHP , BOS … 24 … 18 … 35 … 30 … 22 … 27
20 ) Carter, Chris , 1B , OAK … 28 … 33 … 25 … 11 … 19 … 37
23 ) Escobar, Alcides , SS , MIL … 12 … 54 … 31 … 19 … 15 … 29
24 ) Friedrich, Christian , LHP , COL … 33 … 36 … 14 … 22 … 11 … 36
25 ) Hicks, Aaron , OF , MIN … 19 … 19 … 53 … 26 … 23 … 15
27 ) Westmoreland, Ryan , OF , BOS … 21 … 32 … 39 … 14 … 35 … 22
32 ) Taylor, Michael , OF , OAK … 29 … 24 … 63 … 20 … 50 … 39
39 ) Crosby, Casey , LHP , DET … 47 … 45 … 76 … 32 … 44 … 47
41 ) Castro, Jason , C , HOU … 41 … 65 … 49 … 100 … 53 … 53
42 ) Vitters, Josh , 3B , CHC … 70 … 30 … 112 … 31 … 48 … 44
45 ) Beckham, Tim , SS , TB … 67 … 29 … 75 … 56 … 27 … 82
48 ) Bell, Josh , 3B , BAL … 37 … 61 … 133 … 39 … 38 … 59
52 ) Flowers, Tyler , C , CHW … 60 … 58 … 29 … 72 … 39 … 186
53 ) Crow, Aaron , RHP , KC … 40 … 87 … 88 … 54 … - … 49
55 ) Tate, Donavan , OF , SD … 53 … - … 9 … 29 … - … 55
58 ) Ramos, Wilson , C , MIN … 58 … 42 … 132 … 65 … 43 … 84
63 ) Saunders, Michael , OF , SEA … 30 … 74 … 16 … 62 … 84 … 121
64 ) Rondon, Hector , RHP , CLE … - … 51 … 17 … - … 91 … 40
65 ) Withrow, Chris , RHP , LAD … 48 … 83 … 84 … 40 … - … 42
73 ) Mier, Jiovanni , SS , HOU … 73 … 94 … 40 … 97 … 79 … 50
79 ) Frazier, Todd , SS , CIN … 43 … 66 … 158 … 67 … - … 106
83 ) Sizemore, Scott , 2B , DET … - … 107 … 30 … 57 … - … 193
85 ) Brignac, Reid , SS , TB … 54 … - … 77 … 69 … - … 114
87 ) Darnell, James , 3B , SD … 90 … - … 96 … 64 … - … 88
88 ) Hagadone, Nick , LHP , CLE … 44 … 100 … - … 91 … 85 … 166
96 ) Tazawa, Junichi , RHP , BOS … - … 98 … 147 … - … 72 … 120
97 ) Alderson, Tim , RHP , PIT … - … - … 74 … - … - … 58
98 ) Colome, Alex , RHP , TB … 68 … - … - … 42 … - … 80
100 ) Jackson, Jay , RHP , CHC … 98 … 50 … 123 … - … 99 … 138
102 ) Aumont, Phillippe , RHP , PHI … 93 … - … 126 … 78 … - … 170
105 ) Neal, Thomas , OF , SF … 96 … - … 105 … - … 75 … 102
115 ) Reddick, Josh , OF , BOS … 75 … - … 160 … 58 … - … 115
122 ) Moore, Adam , C , SEA … 83 … - … - … - … - … 175
144 ) Arguelles, Noel , LHP , KC … 100 … - … - … - … - … 96


Players Who Met Pre-Season Expectations

CONSENSUS PLAYER POS TEAM... BA ... KL ... HT ... BP ... FG ... DF
6 ) Montero, Jesus , C , NYY … 4 … 10 … 3 … 4 … 8 … 6
8 ) Feliz, Neftali , RHP , TEX … 9 … 13 … 12 … 3 … 6 … 10
9 ) Matusz, Brian , LHP , BAL … 5 … 11 … 6 … 18 … 13 … 9
11 ) Smoak, Justin , 1B , TEX … 13 … 9 … 8 … 17 … 16 … 11
12 ) Perez, Martin , LHP , TEX … 17 … 7 … 13 … 15 … 20 … 13
14 ) Bumgarner, Madison , LHP , SF … 14 … 28 … 5 … 21 … 17 … 21
15 ) Ackley, Dustin , OF , SEA … 11 … 8 … 52 … 12 … 12 … 12
16 ) Chapman, Aroldis , LHP , CIN … 22 … 16 … 61 … 10 … 18 … 20
17 ) Matzek, Tyler , LHP , COL … 23 … 22 … 21 … 23 … 26 … 19
18 ) Morrison, Logan , 1B , FLA … 20 … 21 … 18 … 50 … 21 … 18
21 ) Brown, Domonic , OF , PHI … 15 … 14 … 65 … 24 … 9 … 23
26 ) Wallace, Brett , 3B , TOR … 27 … 20 … 27 … 44 … 32 … 24
28 ) Drabek, Kyle , RHP , TOR … 25 … 40 … 62 … 16 … 33 … 26
29 ) Davis, Wade , RHP , TB … 34 … 15 … 36 … 34 … 28 … 62
30 ) Chisenhall, Lonnie , SS , CLE … 31 … 26 … 41 … 43 … 55 … 25
31 ) Norris, Derek , C , WAS … 38 … 31 … 45 … 28 … 31 … 33
34 ) Parker, Jarrod , RHP , AZ … 36 … 37 … 79 … 52 … 34 … 17
35 ) Freeman, Freddie , 1B , ATL … 32 … 67 … 37 … 51 … 36 … 31
37 ) Turner, Jacob , RHP , DET … 26 … 80 … 24 … 25 … 67 … 34
38 ) Mejia, Jenrry , RHP , NYM … 56 … 23 … 26 … 48 … 64 … 35
43 ) Gordon, Dee , SS , LAD … 46 … 39 … 95 … 27 … 30 … 70
47 ) Martinez, Fernando , OF , NYM … 77 … 73 … 57 … 80 … 46 … 46
49 ) Decker, Jaff , OF , SD … 82 … 27 … 33 … 74 … 98 … 57
50 ) Lawrie, Brett , C , MIL … 59 … 47 … 32 … 99 … 59 … 51
51 ) Alonso, Yonder , 1B , CIN … 45 … 76 … 51 … - … 47 … 32
54 ) Conger, Hank , C , LAA … 84 … 52 … 68 … 81 … 40 … 75
56 ) Castro, Simon , RHP , SD … 57 … 46 … 64 … 47 … 68 … 69
59 ) Scheppers, Tanner , RHP , TEX … 42 … 78 … 182 … 68 … 66 … 45
61 ) Wheeler, Zach , RHP , SF … 49 … 84 … 22 … 88 … 56 … 77
62 ) Hudson, Daniel , RHP , CHW … 66 … - … 71 … 55 … 65 … 79
68 ) Arrieta, Jake , RHP , BAL … 99 … 90 … 66 … 70 … 73 … 99
76 ) Flores, Wilmer , SS , NYM … 88 … 41 … 80 … 84 … - … 74
77 ) Sanchez, Tony , C , PIT … 79 … 82 … 78 … 75 … 60 … 87
80 ) Mitchell, Jared , OF , CHW … 55 … 95 … - … 61 … - … 83
82 ) White, Alex , RHP , CLE … 65 … - … 55 … 77 … 76 … 91
84 ) Revere, Ben , OF , MIN … 105 … - … 85 … 46 … - … 68
89 ) Anderson, Lars , 1B , BOS … 87 … 56 … 34 … - … - … 95
90 ) Knapp, Jason , RHP , CLE … 64 … - … 46 … 82 … - … 162
91 ) Reckling, Trevor , LHP , LAA … - … 77 … 89 … 92 … 89 … 93
93 ) Dominguez, Matt , 3B , FLA … - … 62 … 166 … - … 82 … 63
95 ) Duffy, Danny , LHP , KC … - … 102 … 50 … - … 94 … 71
99 ) Allen, Brandon , 1B , AZ … - … - … 83 … 85 … 74 … 101
103 ) Lee, Hak-Ju , SS , CHC … 105 … - … 149 … 63 … 88 … 111
108 ) Romine, Austin , C , NYY … 86 … - … 144 … - … 49 … 108
113 ) Jackson, Brett , OF , CHC … 74 … 108 … 117 … 96 … - … 81
114 ) Liddi, Alex , 3B , SEA … - … 106 … 91 … - … - … 48
121 ) James, Chad , LHP , FLA … 78 … - … 82 … - … - … 118
128 ) Borchering, Bobby , 3B , AZ … 105 … - … 193 … - … - … 52
136 ) d'Arnaud, Travis , C , TOR … 81 … 99 … 152 … - … - … 145
141 ) Gamel, Mat , 3B , MIL … 89 … - … - … - … 97 … 183


Tomorrow, we’ll take a look out some quantitative comparisons between the different 'experts'.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

2010 Minor League Pitcher Performance Averages


I just thought I’d share these with you, since I have them around. As part of what we do with the over 8000 player seasons that we evaluate each year, we get a feel for the characteristics of each of the leagues that we evaluate. I have compiled the League Averages for the eighteen leagues that we just finished posting Performance Scores for. On Friday I posted the Hitter Averages and today we’ll do the Pitchers.

These are the averages for the players that we calculated Performance Scores for in each League (typically those with at least 80 ABs or at least 22IPs). I have listed the League average age, a couple of traditional statistical measures and then the four other scores that we use to calculate the Performance scores. If you want a more in-depth explanation of the specific statistical ratios you can find them here: (http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-it-yourself-quantitative-examination.html).


2010 League Pitcher Averages

League - AGE … ERA … WHIP … HRRate … BBRate … K/BFP … IP/G
PCL - 26.89 … 4.69 … 1.458 … 0.11 … 0.40 … 0.19 … 3.4
INT - 26.62 … 4.10 … 1.356 … 0.10 … 0.37 … 0.20 … 3.6
ESL - 24.69 … 4.16 … 1.359 … 0.09 … 0.38 … 0.20 … 3.6
SOL - 24.45 … 3.94 … 1.387 … 0.07 … 0.40 … 0.20 … 3.5
TXL - 24.44 … 3.95 … 1.376 … 0.08 … 0.41 … 0.19 … 3.4
FSL - 23.23 … 3.69 … 1.312 … 0.06 … 0.34 … 0.21 … 3.5
CAL - 23.25 … 4.49 … 1.428 … 0.10 … 0.37 … 0.20 … 3.5
CAR - 23.49 … 3.89 … 1.342 … 0.07 … 0.36 … 0.21 … 3.5
MWL - 22.22 … 4.05 … 1.363 … 0.07 … 0.39 … 0.22 … 3.4
SAL - 22.44 … 3.77 … 1.303 … 0.06 … 0.34 … 0.21 … 3.4
NYP - 21.71 … 3.71 … 1.291 … 0.06 … 0.36 … 0.21 … 3.5
NWL - 21.79 … 3.59 … 1.317 … 0.05 … 0.37 … 0.22 … 3.2
APY - 21.42 … 3.78 … 1.269 … 0.07 … 0.28 … 0.21 … 3.8
PIO - 21.65 … 4.46 … 1.421 … 0.08 … 0.35 … 0.23 … 3.4
GCL - 20.53 … 3.37 … 1.247 … 0.05 … 0.33 … 0.21 … 3.1
AZL - 20.66 … 3.95 … 1.335 … 0.04 … 0.35 … 0.24 … 2.8
DSL - 19.31 … 2.95 … 1.231 … 0.02 … 0.41 … 0.19 … 3.7
VSL - 19.20 … 3.66 … 1.365 … 0.04 … 0.42 … 0.16 … 3.0

Friday, October 15, 2010

2010 Minor League Hitter Performance Averages



I just thought I’d share these with you, since I have them around. As part of what we do with the over 8000 player seasons that we evaluate each year, we get a feel for the characteristics of each of the leagues that we evaluate. I have compiled the League Averages for the eighteen leagues that we just finished posting Performance Scores for. Today I’ll post the Hitter Averages and on Sunday I’ll do the Pitchers.

These are the averages for the players that we calculated Performance Scores for in each League (typically those with at least 80 ABs or at least 22IPs). I have listed the League average age, a couple of traditional statistical measures and then the four other scores that we use to calculate the Performance scores. With the hitters, FBR is First Base Rate; wPow is our proprietary measure of Power; and SPD is our proprietary measure of Speed. If you want a more in-depth explanation of these you can find them here: (http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-it-yourself-quantitative-examination.html).


2010 League Hitter Averages

League - AGE … RC/27 … OPS … FBR … wPOW … K/AB … SPD
PCL - 26.24 … 5.71 … 0.788 … 0.334 … 0.460 … 0.19 … 5.3
INT - 26.22 … 4.95 … 0.742 … 0.313 … 0.434 … 0.21 … 6.1
ESL - 23.95 … 4.79 … 0.732 … 0.317 … 0.407 … 0.21 … 5.1
SOL - 24.11 … 4.91 … 0.737 … 0.333 … 0.367 … 0.21 … 6.1
TXL - 23.58 … 4.69 … 0.724 … 0.324 … 0.354 … 0.21 … 4.8
FSL - 22.26 … 4.27 … 0.690 … 0.318 … 0.308 … 0.22 … 6.3
CAL - 22.37 … 5.31 … 0.766 … 0.326 … 0.412 … 0.22 … 6.0
CAR - 22.18 … 4.64 … 0.722 … 0.314 … 0.383 … 0.22 … 5.2
MWL - 21.00 … 4.59 … 0.717 … 0.317 … 0.343 … 0.24 … 6.5
SAL - 21.05 … 4.31 … 0.698 … 0.307 … 0.340 … 0.23 … 6.6
NYP - 20.50 … 4.27 … 0.692 … 0.323 … 0.306 … 0.23 … 5.1
NWL - 20.79 … 4.29 … 0.695 … 0.326 … 0.303 … 0.24 … 5.4
APY - 20.30 … 4.39 … 0.707 … 0.296 … 0.355 … 0.23 … 4.0
PIO - 20.31 … 5.37 … 0.766 … 0.330 … 0.392 … 0.23 … 5.8
GCL - 18.86 … 4.02 … 0.672 … 0.314 … 0.281 … 0.23 … 5.8
AZL - 19.44 … 4.28 … 0.691 … 0.318 … 0.276 … 0.26 … 5.4
DSL - 17.90 … 3.57 … 0.642 … 0.347 … 0.194 … 0.22 … 6.6
VSL - 17.85 … 4.48 … 0.706 … 0.357 … 0.268 … 0.18 … 5.7

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

2010 Performance Evaluations – Pacific Coast League Pitchers

The Mariners’ Michael Pineda stands atop the PCL pitchers list




Nearly six weeks later, today we finish up our annual examination of Performance for each of eighteen Minor Leagues that have affiliations with MLB organizations, by examining the PCL pitchers. The PCL is a strange league if you are a promising young pitcher, as the parks of the PCL have locations with high altitudes, desert air, sometimes both, yet also boasts below sea level locations like New Orleans. Consequently, the Performance scores in the League often produce unusual story lines. That was once again the case in 2010, as relatively unsung Mariners’ prospect Michael Pineda posted, far and away, the League’s best score. But he wasn’t the main story line in the PCL. In Fresno, Madison Bumgarner made great strides in ‘righting’ what had to be considered a sinking ship entering the season. In Oklahoma City we had not only the terrific rotation duo of Derek Holland and Michael Kirkman, but the Rangers’ seemingly indecisiveness with the role of Tanner Scheppers who may have better pure ‘stuff’ than either of them. And the real story of the League may have been the dominating relief performances by pitchers like Zach Braddock, Henry Rodriguez and Tim Collins.

A couple of things to remember about our Performance evaluations: 1) these are not necessarily prospect lists. While it is fair to assume that the best prospects will put up the best performances, these lists focus only on a player’s offensive performance while they were in the league during the 2010 season. They do not consider things like defensive ability, offense vs. required offense for a given position, or projectability. Prospect evaluation is a combination of art and science and this is the science part of that equation. Later in the fall, we will breakdown each team’s ‘prospects’ and rank them in ‘prospect value’ order. 2) What it is, is a comparative statistical look at each players performance, placed in context of their age, their home park, and the league. We rate each player in the five categories that we have found most significant in predicting future Major League performance. The players that rate the highest, have assembled the best ‘Performance’ in these areas. For a more detailed look at the statistics involved you can refer to previous articles on the site (http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-it-yourself-quantitative-examination.html).

A quick note about the rankings…The TOTAL is the weighted numerical value of the combined statistics that we use. It is scaled for the level of play. Typically, a player with a positive score will rank in the top 1% - 2% of all Minor League players. After the total we list the sub-scores in 4 areas of significance. These scores are presented, for ease of understanding, in a typical 20-80 scouting format. They represent how the individual player performed in those areas in relation to THE LEAGUE in question. A score of 50 represents league average. Players listed as ‘DNQ’ did not qualify for the rankings because of their limited playing time, but we felt their scores were worth noting. If you have further questions on the methodology, feel free to email me at baseballnumbers@ix.netcom.com.




2010 Pacific Coast League Top Pitching Performances


Name ORG POS Total HR Rate Control Dominance Stamina
1 ) Michael Pineda , SEA , R - 0.94 … 37 … 68 … 79 … 70
2 ) Madison Bumgarner , SFG , L - 0.36 … 66 … 69 … 44 … 75
3 ) Jhoulys Chacin , COL , R - 0.34 … 74 … 39 … 69 … 69
4 ) Will Smith , LAA , L - 0.15 … 49 … 54 … 44 … 74
5 ) Michael Kirkman , TEX , L - (0.08) … 66 … 34 … 68 … 72
6 ) Derek Holland , TEX , L - (0.20) … 59 … 66 … 58 … 73
7 ) Lance Lynn , STL , R - (0.31) … 40 … 54 … 56 … 73
8 ) Will Inman , SDP , R - (0.36) … 45 … 46 … 55 … 73
9 ) Sean O'Sullivan , LAA , R - (0.40) … 56 … 56 … 39 … 73
10 ) Pedro Strop , TEX , R - (0.44) … 75 … 61 … 80 … 26
11 ) Bryan Augenstein , ARZ , R - (0.46) … 56 … 66 … 52 … 72
12 ) Jay Jackson , CHN , R - (0.46) … 41 … 64 … 47 … 67
13 ) Louis Coleman , KCR , R - (0.47) … 69 … 68 … 79 … 33
14 ) Blake Beavan , SEA , R - (0.48) … 35 … 74 … 28 … 74
15 ) Adam Ottavino , STL , R - (0.50) … 49 … 70 … 64 … 71
16 ) Ernesto Frieri , SDP , R - (0.52) … 68 … 39 … 80 … 27
17 ) P.J. Walters , STL , R - (0.52) … 46 … 68 … 68 … 73
18 ) Sean West , FLA , L - (0.55) … 63 … 61 … 51 … 70
19 ) Travis Banwart , OAK , R - (0.62) … 41 … 51 … 65 … 67
20 ) Chaz Roe , COL , R - (0.64) … 50 … 60 … 41 … 74
21 ) Casey Coleman , CHN , R - (0.66) … 57 … 65 … 28 … 74
22 ) Esmil Rogers , COL , R - (0.67) … 55 … 64 … 60 … 69
23 ) Cory Luebke , SDP , L - (0.69) … 48 … 66 … 54 … 77
24 ) Tanner Scheppers , TEX , R - (0.71) … 62 … 45 … 65 … 37
25 ) Josh Lindblom , LAD , R - (0.75) … 47 … 60 … 53 … 37
26 ) James McDonald , LAD , R - (0.76) … 67 … 54 … 62 … 70
27 ) John Ely , LAD , R - (0.76) … 40 … 47 … 54 … 70
28 ) Luke French , SEA , L - (0.77) … 66 … 74 … 32 … 78
29 ) Trevor Reckling , LAA , L - (0.78) … 34 … 21 … 30 … 68
30 ) Fernando Salas , STL , R - (0.78) … 67 … 70 … 79 … 26
31 ) Scott Elbert , LAD , L - (0.81) … 59 … 20 … 66 … 66
32 ) Brandon Dickson , STL , R - (0.82) … 64 … 63 … 52 … 75
33 ) Marc Rzepczynski , TOR , L - (0.84) … 35 … 50 … 57 … 73
34 ) Brad Mills , TOR , L - (0.85) … 40 … 53 … 59 … 73
35 ) Trevor Bell , LAA , R - (0.87) … 54 … 74 … 38 … 68


DNQ Mauricio Robles , SEA , L - 0.82 … 63 … 21 … 78 … 73
DNQ Zach Braddock , MIL , L - 0.55 … 66 … 29 … 80 … 29
DNQ Henry Rodriguez , OAK , R - 0.19 … 69 … 47 … 80 … 26
DNQ Tim Collins , KCR , L - 0.13 … 78 … 52 … 77 … 28
DNQ Jordan Lyles , HOU , R - 0.10 … 66 … 59 … 34 … 70
DNQ Tyson Ross , OAK , R - 0.04 … 71 … 34 … 76 … 60
DNQ Andrew Cashner , CHN , R - (0.26) … 78 … 79 … 61 … 60
DNQ Eduardo Sanchez , STL , R - (0.31) … 61 … 44 … 77 … 26
DNQ Jordan Norberto , ARZ , L - (0.66) … 66 … 23 … 79 … 28
DNQ Edgar Gonzalez , LAD , R - (0.68) … 48 … 71 … 78 … 75
DNQ Ryan Webb , SDP , R - (0.73) … 69 … 71 … 79 … 27

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

2010 Performance Evaluations – Pacific Coast League Hitters

The Royals’ Moustakas put on an offensive clinic in the PCL




We are down to our final League, as today we take a look at the PCL hitters today, as we continue our annual examination of Performance for each of eighteen Minor Leagues that have affiliations with MLB organizations. There was a ton of position player talent in the PCL this year, but none of the Performances were even close to what the Royals’ Mike Moustakas posted, as he blasted 15HRs with a .564 SLG in 225 ABs as a 20yo. But Moustakas was just the beginning as League observers saw many big names this year including likely NL ROY, Buster Posey; the Marlins’ Logan Morrison; the Mariners’ Dustin Ackley and Ackley’s teammate Justin Smoak.

A couple of things to remember about our Performance evaluations: 1) these are not necessarily prospect lists. While it is fair to assume that the best prospects will put up the best performances, these lists focus only on a player’s offensive performance while they were in the league during the 2010 season. They do not consider things like defensive ability, offense vs. required offense for a given position, or projectability. Prospect evaluation is a combination of art and science and this is the science part of that equation. Later in the fall, we will breakdown each team’s ‘prospects’ and rank them in ‘prospect value’ order. 2) What it is, is a comparative statistical look at each players performance, placed in context of their age, their home park, and the league. We rate each player in the five categories that we have found most significant in predicting future Major League performance. The players that rate the highest, have assembled the best ‘Performance’ in these areas. For a more detailed look at the statistics involved you can refer to previous articles on the site (http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-it-yourself-quantitative-examination.html).

A quick note about the rankings…The TOTAL is the weighted numerical value of the combined statistics that we use. It is scaled for the level of play. Typically, a player with a positive score will rank in the top 1% - 2% of all Minor League players. After the total we list the sub-scores in 4 areas of significance. These scores are presented, for ease of understanding, in a typical 20-80 scouting format. They represent how the individual player performed in those areas in relation to THE LEAGUE in question. A score of 50 represents league average. Players listed as ‘DNQ’ did not qualify for the rankings because of their limited playing time, but we felt their scores were worth noting. If you have further questions on the methodology, feel free to email me at baseballnumbers@ix.netcom.com.




2010 Pacific Coast League Top Hitting Performances


Name Org POS TOTAL Reach Base Strike Zone Judgement Power Speed
1 ) Mike Moustakas , KCR , 3B - 1.09 … 23 … 75 … 79 … 43
2 ) Logan Morrison , FLA , 1B - 0.28 … 78 … 67 … 55 … 32
3 ) Buster Posey , SFG , C - 0.20 … 78 … 57 … 63 … 34
4 ) Cameron Maybin , FLA , OF - 0.03 … 76 … 53 … 53 … 58
5 ) J.P. Arencibia , TOR , C - 0.02 … 26 … 45 … 80 … 31
6 ) Kila Ka'aihue , KCR , 1B - (0.02) … 80 … 42 … 79 … 42
7 ) Hank Conger , LAA , C - (0.04) … 67 … 66 … 51 … 29
8 ) Cedric Hunter , SDP , CF - (0.04) … 41 … 78 … 34 … 58
9 ) Jon Jay , STL , LF - (0.05) … 62 … 70 … 60 … 80
10 ) Brad Emaus , TOR , 3B - (0.07) … 66 … 62 … 62 … 66
11 ) Justin Smoak , SEA , 1B - (0.07) … 73 … 41 … 71 … 31
12 ) Daniel Descalso , STL , 2B - (0.13) … 55 … 76 … 46 … 58
13 ) Brandon Allen , ARZ , 1B - (0.13) … 65 … 29 … 75 … 75
14 ) Peter Bourjos , LAA , CF - (0.18) … 44 … 52 … 46 … 80
15 ) Chad Tracy , TEX , DH - (0.31) … 43 … 53 … 75 … 52
16 ) Mike Baxter , SDP , 1B - (0.34) … 60 … 62 … 66 … 74
17 ) Eric Sogard , OAK , 2B - (0.36) … 78 … 70 … 34 … 60
18 ) Chris Carter , OAK , LF - (0.41) … 45 … 23 … 79 … 34
19 ) Justin Sellers , LAD , SS - (0.43) … 51 … 59 … 64 … 48
20 ) Dustin Ackley , SEA , 2B - (0.49) … 41 … 56 … 46 … 40
21 ) Mike Carp , SEA , 1B - (0.55) … 30 … 37 … 77 … 33
22 ) Mark Trumbo , LAA , 1B - (0.55) … 41 … 34 … 77 … 37
23 ) Bryan Anderson , STL , C - (0.55) … 52 … 48 … 65 … 31
24 ) Jarrett Hoffpauir , TOR , 3B - (0.57) … 61 … 78 … 61 … 61
25 ) Jason Castro , HOU , C - (0.58) … 75 … 62 … 33 … 34
26 ) Jack Shuck , HOU , OF - (0.59) … 75 … 75 … 22 … 58
27 ) Mat Gamel , MIL , 3B - (0.61) … 61 … 45 … 69 … 45
28 ) Marquez Smith , CHN , 3B - (0.61) … 44 … 36 … 77 … 43
29 ) David Lough , KCR , OF - (0.63) … 54 … 64 … 42 … 72
30 ) Xavier Paul , LAD , OF - (0.64) … 31 … 55 … 73 … 59
31 ) Donovan Solano , STL , SS - (0.65) … 35 … 75 … 30 … 40
32 ) Mitch Moreland , TEX , RF - (0.65) … 55 … 56 … 65 … 39
33 ) Eric Farris , MIL , 2B - (0.67) … 42 … 75 … 28 … 79
34 ) Welington Castillo , CHN , C - (0.68) … 23 … 33 … 76 … 29
35 ) Chris Nelson , COL , SS - (0.69) … 56 … 60 … 54 … 58
36 ) Brett Wallace , HOU , 1B - (0.70) … 38 … 42 … 68 … 34
37 ) Chris Johnson , HOU , 3B - (0.71) … 40 … 64 … 74 … 31
38 ) Luis Durango , SDP , CF - (0.71) … 80 … 62 … 22 … 77
39 ) Adrian Cardenas , OAK , 2B - (0.72) … 64 … 70 … 26 … 37
40 ) Josh Donaldson , OAK , C - (0.73) … 44 … 27 … 76 … 45
41 ) Alex Gordon , KCR , OF - (0.73) … 75 … 25 … 77 … 62
42 ) John Bowker , SFG , LF - (0.73) … 50 … 52 … 79 … 33
43 ) Allen Craig , STL , LF - (0.73) … 60 … 50 … 73 … 37
44 ) Greg Halman , SEA , OF - (0.74) … 22 … 20 … 79 … 77
45 ) Ivan De Jesus , LAD , 2B - (0.76) … 38 … 65 … 34 … 62
46 ) Steven Tolleson , OAK , SS - (0.78) … 77 … 59 … 57 … 66
47 ) Manuel Pina , KCR , C - (0.79) … 23 … 72 … 54 … 30
48 ) Jesus Guzman , SFG , 3B - (0.79) … 59 … 65 … 64 … 49
49 ) Robinson Chirinos , CHN , C - (0.80) … 50 … 67 … 76 … 31
50 ) Darwin Barney , CHN , SS - (0.82) … 55 … 75 … 28 … 72


DNQ Brandon Belt , SFG , 1B - 0.37 … 49 … 22 … 80 … 45
DNQ Alexi Amarista , LAA , 2B - 0.16 … 43 … 79 … 36 … 51
DNQ Manny Mayorson , TOR , SS - (0.83) … 49 … 79 … 37 … 79



Monday, October 11, 2010

2010 Performance Evaluations – International League Pitchers

Hellickson will force someone out of the Rays rotation in 2011





Wrapping up the International League, today we continue our annual examination of Performance for each of eighteen Minor Leagues that have affiliations with MLB organizations, by examining INT pitchers. The League saw many big names this year, as Jeremy Hellickson topped the list, but the biggest name—Nationals’ RHP Stephen Strasburg—fell just short of qualifying. While the list is full of solid MLB prospects up and down it, with the likes of: Craig Kimbrel, Alrodis Chapman, Zach Britton, Chris Tillman, Kyle Gibson, etc., the performances turned in by many of them fell a bit short of expectations.

A couple of things to remember about our Performance evaluations: 1) these are not necessarily prospect lists. While it is fair to assume that the best prospects will put up the best performances, these lists focus only on a player’s offensive performance while they were in the league during the 2010 season. They do not consider things like defensive ability, offense vs. required offense for a given position, or projectability. Prospect evaluation is a combination of art and science and this is the science part of that equation. Later in the fall, we will breakdown each team’s ‘prospects’ and rank them in ‘prospect value’ order. 2) What it is, is a comparative statistical look at each players performance, placed in context of their age, their home park, and the league. We rate each player in the five categories that we have found most significant in predicting future Major League performance. The players that rate the highest, have assembled the best ‘Performance’ in these areas. For a more detailed look at the statistics involved you can refer to previous articles on the site (http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-it-yourself-quantitative-examination.html).

A quick note about the rankings…The TOTAL is the weighted numerical value of the combined statistics that we use. It is scaled for the level of play. Typically, a player with a positive score will rank in the top 1% - 2% of all Minor League players. After the total we list the sub-scores in 4 areas of significance. These scores are presented, for ease of understanding, in a typical 20-80 scouting format. They represent how the individual player performed in those areas in relation to THE LEAGUE in question. A score of 50 represents league average. Players listed as ‘DNQ’ did not qualify for the rankings because of their limited playing time, but we felt their scores were worth noting. If you have further questions on the methodology, feel free to email me at baseballnumbers@ix.netcom.com.




2010 International League Top Pitching Performances


Name ORG POS Total HR Rate Control Dominance Stamina
1 ) Jeremy Hellickson , TBR , R - 0.34 … 72 … 61 … 70 … 71
2 ) Brandon Beachy , ATL , R - 0.26 … 71 … 77 … 72 … 72
3 ) Craig Kimbrel , ATL , R - 0.18 … 68 … 22 … 80 … 27
4 ) Travis Wood , CIN , L - 0.10 … 53 … 69 … 67 … 75
5 ) Aroldis Chapman , CIN , L - (0.00) … 60 … 26 … 78 … 37
6 ) Daniel Hudson , CHA , R - (0.01) … 32 … 56 … 75 … 70
7 ) Zachary Britton , BAL , L - (0.06) … 70 … 53 … 52 … 70
8 ) Chris Tillman , BAL , R - (0.10) … 57 … 68 … 46 … 72
9 ) Andrew Oliver , DET , L - (0.15) … 44 … 34 … 60 … 73
10 ) Vance Worley , PHI , R - (0.17) … 63 … 71 … 48 … 71
11 ) Carlos Carrasco , CLE , R - (0.27) … 47 … 60 … 57 … 73
12 ) Ivan Nova , NYY , R - (0.32) … 61 … 56 … 47 … 75
13 ) David Bromberg , MIN , R - (0.33) … 25 … 67 … 59 … 72
14 ) Felix Doubront , BOS , L - (0.35) … 75 … 39 … 55 … 57
15 ) David Phelps , NYY , R - (0.36) … 66 … 74 … 49 … 73
16 ) Jake Arrieta , BAL , R - (0.38) … 71 … 35 … 58 … 74
17 ) Dillon Gee , NYM , R - (0.50) … 32 … 67 … 65 … 72
18 ) Hector Noesi , NYY , R - (0.56) … 67 … 71 … 40 … 75
19 ) Aneury Rodriguez , TBR , R - (0.57) … 56 … 39 … 50 … 58
20 ) Kyle Gibson , MIN , R - (0.62) … 78 … 58 … 31 … 68
21 ) Jeanmar Gomez , CLE , R - (0.65) … 34 … 51 … 35 … 72
22 ) Jose Ortegano , ATL , L - (0.77) … 37 … 40 … 44 … 65
23 ) Paolo Espino , CLE , R - (0.79) … 26 … 62 … 44 … 73
24 ) Scott Diamond , ATL , L - (0.79) … 73 … 65 … 31 … 71
25 ) Zach McAllister , CLE , R - (0.81) … 33 … 60 … 33 … 70
26 ) Shairon Martis , WSN , R - (0.83) … 53 … 45 … 34 … 71
27 ) Brad Lincoln , PIT , R - (0.86) … 48 … 67 … 57 … 70
28 ) Michael Dunn , ATL , L - (0.89) … 76 … 28 … 79 … 27
29 ) Vinnie Pestano , CLE , R - (0.89) … 76 … 60 … 79 … 26
30 ) Brandon Erbe , BAL , R - (0.90) … 28 … 59 … 36 … 66


DNQ Stephen Strasburg , WSN , R - 1.13 … 74 … 72 … 78 … 71
DNQ Mike Minor , ATL , L - 0.65 … 74 … 51 … 76 … 71
DNQ Jake McGee , TBR , L - 0.51 … 78 … 75 … 80 … 30
DNQ D.J. Mitchell , NYY , R - (0.17) … 78 … 45 … 54 … 73
DNQ Josh Stinson , NYM , R - (0.32) … 24 … 63 … 48 … 78
DNQ Antonio Bastardo , PHI , L - (0.32) … 78 … 53 … 80 … 25
DNQ Thad Weber , DET , R - (0.73) … 54 … 77 … 56 … 78
DNQ Deolis Guerra , MIN , R - (0.82) … 22 … 57 … 35 … 66