Marc Krauss of Ohio University is one of the more unsung hitters in this draft classA little later than I would have hoped, but finally here…Please remember, that while there is a strong correlation between the performance evaluation scores and future professional success, these are not rankings of the prospect value of these players. Much more goes into deriving the prospect value than just performance. What they are, is a park neutral, level neutral, age adjusted look at each players 2009 performance in College. To give you a somewhat historical feel for how they work, I have listed the Top 10 Performances by draft eligible hitters from the 2007 Draft. And then I have a list of the top 10 college hitters actually drafted in 2007:
2007 Top 10 Hitters – By Performance
1) Tony Thomas, Florida St – 1.41
2) Matt Laporta, Florida – 1.28
3) Kellen Kulbacki, James Madison – 1.10
4) Josh Donaldson, Auburn – 1.00
5) Matt Wieters, Georgia Tech – 0.86
6) Brandon Waring, Wofford – 0.82
7) Steven Hill, Stephen F Austin – 0.81
8) Sean Doolittle, Virginia – 0.81
9) Eric Sogard, Arizona St – 0.71
10) J.P. Arencibia, Tennessee – 0.64
First 10 College Hitters Drafted in 2007
1) Matt Wieters
2) Matt Laporta
3) Beau Mills
4) J.P. Arencibia
5) Todd Frazier
6) Julio Borbon
7) Kellen Kulbacki
8) Sean Doolittle
9) Josh Donaldson
10) Mitch Canham
As you can see, 6 of the 10 players on both lists are the same. Beau Mills didn’t play Division I Baseball. The Differences are that Tony Thomas, Brandon Waring, Steven Hill and Eric Sogard—who all, by the way, are enjoying fine 2009 seasons; are defensively challenged hitting prospects who are going to rely heavily on their bat if they are to make it at the next level.
This year’s top 10 list is equally likely to produce 5 or 6 of the first 10 college players drafted. A few names to take note of that aren’t getting the draft ’buzz’ that there performance has warranted include: Derek McCallum, Minnesota; Marc Krauss, Ohio University; Kent Matthes, Alabama and Brett Nommensen, Eastern Illinois. The following are the Top 50, draft eligible, offensive players this year and then a list of the 20 players who are returning to college in 2010.
1) Wheeler, Tim... Sacramento State - 1.464 ( AVG - 71 ; POW - 79 ; StrkZn - 59 ; SPD - 69 )
2) Ackey, Dustin...North Carolina - 1.297 ( AVG - 75 ; POW - 71 ; StrkZn - 66 ; SPD - 59 )
3) McCallum, Derek...Minnesota - 1.022 ( AVG - 80 ; POW - 75 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 57 )
4) Phegley, Josh...Indiana - 0.992 ( AVG - 76 ; POW - 74 ; StrkZn - 64 ; SPD - 45 )
5) Krauss, Marc...Ohio U - 0.924 ( AVG - 63 ; POW - 77 ; StrkZn - 67 ; SPD - 51 )
6) Gaynor, Wade...Western Kentucky - 0.911 ( AVG - 56 ; POW - 74 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 72 )
7) Prince, Josh...Tulane - 0.779 ( AVG - 55 ; POW - 52 ; StrkZn - 66 ; SPD - 80 )
8 ) Poythress, Rich...Georgia - 0.774 ( AVG - 74 ; POW - 79 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 43 )
9) Kipnis, Jason...Arizona St - 0.694 ( AVG - 57 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 67 ; SPD - 76 )
10) Matthes, Kent...Alabama - 0.676 ( AVG - 59 ; POW - 80 ; StrkZn - 55 ; SPD - 65 )
11) Buschini, Adam...Cal-Poly - 0.644 ( AVG - 80 ; POW - 69 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 65 )
12) Bergman, Joey...Coll of Charles - 0.613 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 64 ; StrkZn - 65 ; SPD - 80 )
13 ) Hazlbaker, Jeremy... Ball State - 0.606 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 61 ; StrkZn - 66 ; SPD - 73 )
14 ) Morris, Tim... St Johns - 0.604 ( AVG - 80 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 59 ; SPD - 52 )
15) Carpenter, Matt...TCU - 0.594 ( AVG - 58 ; POW - 70 ; StrkZn - 71 ; SPD - 65 )
16) Nommensen, Brett...Eastern Illinois - 0.571 ( AVG - 75 ; POW - 80 ; StrkZn - 72 ; SPD - 48 )
17 ) Songco, Angelo...Loyola Marymount - 0.534 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 69 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 48 )
18 ) McGuiness, Chris...Citadel - 0.530 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 78 ; SPD - 42 )
19) Davis, Khris...Cal State-Fullerton - 0.524 ( AVG - 57 ; POW - 71 ; StrkZn - 58 ; SPD - 66 )
20) Townsend, Tyler...Florida International - 0.508 ( AVG - 66 ; POW - 74 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 43 )
21) Henderson, Chris...George Mason - 0.504 ( AVG - 73 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 60 ; SPD - 43 )
22) Helmick, Gary...Townson St - 0.462 ( AVG - 68 ; POW - 66 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 63 )
23) Dageford, Devon...Louisiana Tech - 0.460 ( AVG - 58 ; POW - 80 ; StrkZn - 50 ; SPD - 57 )
24) Burnette, Chase...Georgia Tech - 0.439 ( AVG - 66 ; POW - 72 ; StrkZn - 58 ; SPD - 43 )
25) Ebert, Nick...South Carolina - 0.426 ( AVG - 57 ; POW - 76 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 47 )
26) Shoemaker, Brady...Indiana State - 0.413 ( AVG - 67 ; POW - 69 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 59 )
27) Pollock, AJ...Notre Dame - 0.411 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 60 ; StrkZn - 60 ; SPD - 69 )
28) Belt, Brandon... Texas - 0.378 ( AVG - 61 ; POW - 59 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 63 )
29) Sedon, Chris...Pittsburgh - 0.372 ( AVG - 70 ; POW - 75 ; StrkZn - 44 ; SPD - 61 )
30) Cardullo, Stephen...Florida State - 0.318 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 59 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 70 )
31) Kobernus, Jeff...California - 0.297 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 56 ; StrkZn - 54 ; SPD - 70 )
32) Nurre, Tommy... MiamiOhio - 0.259 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 68 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 72 )
33) Henry, Jordan...Mississippi - 0.256 ( AVG - 54 ; POW - 38 ; StrkZn - 72 ; SPD - 80 )
34) Mitchell, Jared...LSU - 0.255 ( AVG - 46 ; POW - 53 ; StrkZn - 60 ; SPD - 76 )
35) Goldschmidt, Paul...Texas St - 0.254 ( AVG - 50 ; POW - 64 ; StrkZn - 71 ; SPD - 51 )
36) Seager, Kyle...North Carolina - 0.246 ( AVG - 67 ; POW - 54 ; StrkZn - 62 ; SPD - 68 )
37) Crawford, Evan...Indiana - 0.239 ( AVG - 71 ; POW - 52 ; StrkZn - 49 ; SPD - 77 )
38) Langfels, Jayson...Eastern Kentucky - 0.228 ( AVG - 63 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 46 ; SPD - 65 )
39) Stidham, Jason...Florida State - 0.227 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 64 ; SPD - 45 )
40) Black, Dan...Purdue - 0.209 ( AVG - 48 ; POW - 70 ; StrkZn - 71 ; SPD - 52 )
41) Carlson, Ben...Missouri State - 0.207 ( AVG - 53 ; POW - 73 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 57 )
42) Castine, Jonathan...Dayton - 0.207 ( AVG - 61 ; POW - 68 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 44 )
43) Drake, Brayden...Missouri State - 0.202 ( AVG - 75 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 53 )
44) Maxfield, Zach...Florida Gulf Coast - 0.197 ( AVG - 73 ; POW - 76 ; StrkZn - 52 ; SPD - 42 )
45) Wheeler, Ryan...Loyola Marymount - 0.195 ( AVG - 54 ; POW - 60 ; StrkZn - 62 ; SPD - 52 )
46) Wood, Ryan...East Carolina - 0.189 ( AVG - 61 ; POW - 61 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 67 )
47) Hamme, Ryan...Campbell - 0.186 ( AVG - 67 ; POW - 60 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 66 )
48) Goins, Ryan... Dallas Baptist - 0.169 ( AVG - 51 ; POW - 68 ; StrkZn - 64 ; SPD - 57 )
49) Melillo, Mike...Elon - 0.151 ( AVG - 44 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 67 ; SPD - 57 )
50) Krieger, Scott...George Mason - 0.142 ( AVG - 66 ; POW - 76 ; StrkZn - 55 ; SPD - 51 )
1) Tony Thomas, Florida St – 1.41
2) Matt Laporta, Florida – 1.28
3) Kellen Kulbacki, James Madison – 1.10
4) Josh Donaldson, Auburn – 1.00
5) Matt Wieters, Georgia Tech – 0.86
6) Brandon Waring, Wofford – 0.82
7) Steven Hill, Stephen F Austin – 0.81
8) Sean Doolittle, Virginia – 0.81
9) Eric Sogard, Arizona St – 0.71
10) J.P. Arencibia, Tennessee – 0.64
First 10 College Hitters Drafted in 2007
1) Matt Wieters
2) Matt Laporta
3) Beau Mills
4) J.P. Arencibia
5) Todd Frazier
6) Julio Borbon
7) Kellen Kulbacki
8) Sean Doolittle
9) Josh Donaldson
10) Mitch Canham
As you can see, 6 of the 10 players on both lists are the same. Beau Mills didn’t play Division I Baseball. The Differences are that Tony Thomas, Brandon Waring, Steven Hill and Eric Sogard—who all, by the way, are enjoying fine 2009 seasons; are defensively challenged hitting prospects who are going to rely heavily on their bat if they are to make it at the next level.
This year’s top 10 list is equally likely to produce 5 or 6 of the first 10 college players drafted. A few names to take note of that aren’t getting the draft ’buzz’ that there performance has warranted include: Derek McCallum, Minnesota; Marc Krauss, Ohio University; Kent Matthes, Alabama and Brett Nommensen, Eastern Illinois. The following are the Top 50, draft eligible, offensive players this year and then a list of the 20 players who are returning to college in 2010.
1) Wheeler, Tim... Sacramento State - 1.464 ( AVG - 71 ; POW - 79 ; StrkZn - 59 ; SPD - 69 )
2) Ackey, Dustin...North Carolina - 1.297 ( AVG - 75 ; POW - 71 ; StrkZn - 66 ; SPD - 59 )
3) McCallum, Derek...Minnesota - 1.022 ( AVG - 80 ; POW - 75 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 57 )
4) Phegley, Josh...Indiana - 0.992 ( AVG - 76 ; POW - 74 ; StrkZn - 64 ; SPD - 45 )
5) Krauss, Marc...Ohio U - 0.924 ( AVG - 63 ; POW - 77 ; StrkZn - 67 ; SPD - 51 )
6) Gaynor, Wade...Western Kentucky - 0.911 ( AVG - 56 ; POW - 74 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 72 )
7) Prince, Josh...Tulane - 0.779 ( AVG - 55 ; POW - 52 ; StrkZn - 66 ; SPD - 80 )
8 ) Poythress, Rich...Georgia - 0.774 ( AVG - 74 ; POW - 79 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 43 )
9) Kipnis, Jason...Arizona St - 0.694 ( AVG - 57 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 67 ; SPD - 76 )
10) Matthes, Kent...Alabama - 0.676 ( AVG - 59 ; POW - 80 ; StrkZn - 55 ; SPD - 65 )
11) Buschini, Adam...Cal-Poly - 0.644 ( AVG - 80 ; POW - 69 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 65 )
12) Bergman, Joey...Coll of Charles - 0.613 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 64 ; StrkZn - 65 ; SPD - 80 )
13 ) Hazlbaker, Jeremy... Ball State - 0.606 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 61 ; StrkZn - 66 ; SPD - 73 )
14 ) Morris, Tim... St Johns - 0.604 ( AVG - 80 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 59 ; SPD - 52 )
15) Carpenter, Matt...TCU - 0.594 ( AVG - 58 ; POW - 70 ; StrkZn - 71 ; SPD - 65 )
16) Nommensen, Brett...Eastern Illinois - 0.571 ( AVG - 75 ; POW - 80 ; StrkZn - 72 ; SPD - 48 )
17 ) Songco, Angelo...Loyola Marymount - 0.534 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 69 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 48 )
18 ) McGuiness, Chris...Citadel - 0.530 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 78 ; SPD - 42 )
19) Davis, Khris...Cal State-Fullerton - 0.524 ( AVG - 57 ; POW - 71 ; StrkZn - 58 ; SPD - 66 )
20) Townsend, Tyler...Florida International - 0.508 ( AVG - 66 ; POW - 74 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 43 )
21) Henderson, Chris...George Mason - 0.504 ( AVG - 73 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 60 ; SPD - 43 )
22) Helmick, Gary...Townson St - 0.462 ( AVG - 68 ; POW - 66 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 63 )
23) Dageford, Devon...Louisiana Tech - 0.460 ( AVG - 58 ; POW - 80 ; StrkZn - 50 ; SPD - 57 )
24) Burnette, Chase...Georgia Tech - 0.439 ( AVG - 66 ; POW - 72 ; StrkZn - 58 ; SPD - 43 )
25) Ebert, Nick...South Carolina - 0.426 ( AVG - 57 ; POW - 76 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 47 )
26) Shoemaker, Brady...Indiana State - 0.413 ( AVG - 67 ; POW - 69 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 59 )
27) Pollock, AJ...Notre Dame - 0.411 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 60 ; StrkZn - 60 ; SPD - 69 )
28) Belt, Brandon... Texas - 0.378 ( AVG - 61 ; POW - 59 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 63 )
29) Sedon, Chris...Pittsburgh - 0.372 ( AVG - 70 ; POW - 75 ; StrkZn - 44 ; SPD - 61 )
30) Cardullo, Stephen...Florida State - 0.318 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 59 ; StrkZn - 61 ; SPD - 70 )
31) Kobernus, Jeff...California - 0.297 ( AVG - 65 ; POW - 56 ; StrkZn - 54 ; SPD - 70 )
32) Nurre, Tommy... MiamiOhio - 0.259 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 68 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 72 )
33) Henry, Jordan...Mississippi - 0.256 ( AVG - 54 ; POW - 38 ; StrkZn - 72 ; SPD - 80 )
34) Mitchell, Jared...LSU - 0.255 ( AVG - 46 ; POW - 53 ; StrkZn - 60 ; SPD - 76 )
35) Goldschmidt, Paul...Texas St - 0.254 ( AVG - 50 ; POW - 64 ; StrkZn - 71 ; SPD - 51 )
36) Seager, Kyle...North Carolina - 0.246 ( AVG - 67 ; POW - 54 ; StrkZn - 62 ; SPD - 68 )
37) Crawford, Evan...Indiana - 0.239 ( AVG - 71 ; POW - 52 ; StrkZn - 49 ; SPD - 77 )
38) Langfels, Jayson...Eastern Kentucky - 0.228 ( AVG - 63 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 46 ; SPD - 65 )
39) Stidham, Jason...Florida State - 0.227 ( AVG - 62 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 64 ; SPD - 45 )
40) Black, Dan...Purdue - 0.209 ( AVG - 48 ; POW - 70 ; StrkZn - 71 ; SPD - 52 )
41) Carlson, Ben...Missouri State - 0.207 ( AVG - 53 ; POW - 73 ; StrkZn - 56 ; SPD - 57 )
42) Castine, Jonathan...Dayton - 0.207 ( AVG - 61 ; POW - 68 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 44 )
43) Drake, Brayden...Missouri State - 0.202 ( AVG - 75 ; POW - 65 ; StrkZn - 57 ; SPD - 53 )
44) Maxfield, Zach...Florida Gulf Coast - 0.197 ( AVG - 73 ; POW - 76 ; StrkZn - 52 ; SPD - 42 )
45) Wheeler, Ryan...Loyola Marymount - 0.195 ( AVG - 54 ; POW - 60 ; StrkZn - 62 ; SPD - 52 )
46) Wood, Ryan...East Carolina - 0.189 ( AVG - 61 ; POW - 61 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 67 )
47) Hamme, Ryan...Campbell - 0.186 ( AVG - 67 ; POW - 60 ; StrkZn - 63 ; SPD - 66 )
48) Goins, Ryan... Dallas Baptist - 0.169 ( AVG - 51 ; POW - 68 ; StrkZn - 64 ; SPD - 57 )
49) Melillo, Mike...Elon - 0.151 ( AVG - 44 ; POW - 67 ; StrkZn - 67 ; SPD - 57 )
50) Krieger, Scott...George Mason - 0.142 ( AVG - 66 ; POW - 76 ; StrkZn - 55 ; SPD - 51 )
Top Returning Offensive Players for 2010
1 ) Brentz , Bryce … MidTennst
2 ) Rendon , Anthony … Rice
3 ) Wong , Kolten … UH
4 ) CHANNING , Troy … SMC
5 ) McGee , Mike … FS
6 ) SPRINGER , George … UCONN
7 ) Holt , Tyler … FS
8 ) Dickerson , Alex … IND
9 ) Jensen , Matt … CP
10 ) Parker , Jarrett … VA
11 ) Hawn , Cody … UT
12 ) Muno , Danny … FS
13 ) Forsythe , Blake … UT
14 ) KIRBY-JONES , AJ … Tennesee Tech
15 ) Eaton , Adam … MiamiOhio
16 ) NOEL , Rico … Coastal Carolina
17 ) PANIK , Joe … St Johns
18 ) KAUPPILA , Kris … POR
19 ) Bradley , Jackie … SC
20 ) Thomas , Ben … Xavier
2 ) Rendon , Anthony … Rice
3 ) Wong , Kolten … UH
4 ) CHANNING , Troy … SMC
5 ) McGee , Mike … FS
6 ) SPRINGER , George … UCONN
7 ) Holt , Tyler … FS
8 ) Dickerson , Alex … IND
9 ) Jensen , Matt … CP
10 ) Parker , Jarrett … VA
11 ) Hawn , Cody … UT
12 ) Muno , Danny … FS
13 ) Forsythe , Blake … UT
14 ) KIRBY-JONES , AJ … Tennesee Tech
15 ) Eaton , Adam … MiamiOhio
16 ) NOEL , Rico … Coastal Carolina
17 ) PANIK , Joe … St Johns
18 ) KAUPPILA , Kris … POR
19 ) Bradley , Jackie … SC
20 ) Thomas , Ben … Xavier
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