Diamond Futures Retrospective: The 2000 Top 100

While Ankiel has become a reasonably decent big league hitter, it was his arm that vaulted him to the top of the 2000 list

Following the 1999 season, we produced our first Top 100 list, utilizing the changes to our process that came about in 1998. While over the last decade, we have made ‘tweaks’ here and there to what we do (the weightings are slightly different, we use standard deviations to our age variables, and our variables have changed slightly), it is mostly the same process that we have been using for over a decade. With baseball entering its ‘down’ season for ‘prospecting’, I thought it would be good to look back at the list that we produced in February of 2000. Incidentally, it was this list that led to our first on-line prospect writing ‘gig’.


While I would gladly stack our prospect analysis against anyone in the business, I thought we would use this exercise to see just how difficult forecasting prospect success actually is. We had our successes: as Jimmy Rollins at #18 was considerably higher than any other list, and few people were as excited about Miguel Cabrera as we were—despite his signing for a $1.9 million bonus that summer. In all there are 13 players from this list that have gone on to have what would have to be considered ‘star’ caliber careers. Additionally, there are another 29 players on the list that have become solid ‘regulars’ in the Major Leagues. So all totaled, 42% of the players have achieved, what would have to be considered, Big League success. The problem comes in the other group, where 50% have had careers that have ranged from ‘a cup of coffee’ to ‘reserve level’ and 8 players, led by former Mariners’ first round pick, Ryan Anderson, never played a day at the Major League level. So keep this in mind this winter, when you start to see the 2010 lists come out.


Here is the complete list:


1 ) Rick Ankiel , LHP , STL
2 ) Vernon Wells , CF , TOR
3 ) Nick Johnson , 1B , NYY
4 ) Josh Hamilton , OF , TBD
5 ) Josh Beckett , RHP , FLA
6 ) Ruben Mateo , OF , TEX
7 ) Michael Cuddyer , 3B , MIN
8 ) Brad Penny , RHP , FLA
9 ) Sean Burroughs , 3B , SDP
10 ) Dee Brown , LF , KCR
11 ) Ryan Anderson , LHP , SEA
12 ) Ben Sheets , RHP , MIL
13 ) Matt Riley , LHP , BAL
14 ) Eric Munson , C/1B , DET
15 ) Barry Zito , LHP , OAK
16 ) Chin-Feng Chen , OF , SEA
17 ) Corey Patterson , CF , CHN
18 ) Jimmy Rollins , SS , PHI
19 ) Pat Burrell , LF , PHI
20 ) Hee Seop Choi , 1B , CHN
21 ) D'Angelo Jimenez , 2B/SS , NYY
22 ) Wilfredo Rodriguez , LHP , HOU
23 ) Chris Snelling , OF , SEA
24 ) Francisco Rodriguez , RHP , Ana
25 ) Gookie Dawkins , SS , CIN
26 ) Daryle Ward , OF/1B , HOU
27 ) Carlos Guillen , SS , SEA
28 ) John Stephens , RHP , BAL
29 ) C.C. Sabathia , LHP , CLE
30 ) Dannys Baez , RHP , TBD
31 ) Brett Myers , RHP , PHI
32 ) Byung-Hyun Kim , RHP , ARZ
33 ) Ben Petrick , C , COL
34 ) Milton Bradley , OF , MTL
35 ) Marcus Giles , 2B , ATL
36 ) Jack Cust , OF , ARZ
37 ) Jason Jennings , RHP , COL
38 ) Bruce Chen , LHP , ATL
39 ) Jayson Werth , OF , BAL
40 ) John Patterson , RHP , ARZ
41 ) Carl Crawford , OF , TBD
42 ) Ryan Christianson , C , SEA
43 ) Jason Romano , OF/2B , TEX
44 ) Adam Dunn , LF , CIN
45 ) Kurt Ainsworth , RHP , SFG
46 ) Cesar Izturis , SS , TOR
47 ) Ryan Vogelsong , RHP , SFG
48 ) Lance Berkman , OF , HOU
49 ) Tony Mota , OF , LAD
50 ) Octavio Dotel , RHP , NYM
51 ) Alex Rios , OF , TOR
52 ) Andy Pratt , LHP , TEX
53 ) Miguel Cabrera , 3B/SS , FLA
54 ) Gil Meche , RHP , SEA
55 ) Ricardo Aramboles , RHP , NYY
56 ) Aubrey Huff , 3B , TBD
57 ) Luis Rivas , 2B , MIN
58 ) Wily Aybar , 3B , LAD
59 ) Adam Piatt , OF , OAK
60 ) Randey Dorame , LHP , LAD
61 ) Nick Neugebauer , RHP , MIL
62 ) Drew Henson , 3B , NYY
63 ) Scott Downs , LHP , CHN
64 ) Dicky Gonzalez , RHP , NYM
65 ) Brad Fullmer , 1B , MTL
66 ) Matt Ford , LHP , TOR
67 ) Jerome Williams , RHP , SFG
68 ) Bud Smith , LHP , STL
69 ) Larry Bigbie , OF , BAL
70 ) Chad Harville , RHP , OAK
71 ) Tony Armas , RHP , MTL
72 ) Gary Thomas , OF , OAK
73 ) Tim Hudson , RHP , OAK
74 ) Bobby Bradley , RHP , PIT
75 ) Alex Escobar , OF , NYM
76 ) Brent Abernathy , 2B , TOR
77 ) Michael Restovich , OF , MIN
78 ) Carlos Lee , LF , CHA
79 ) B.J. Garbe , OF , MIN
80 ) Ramon Ortiz , RHP , ANA
81 ) Orber Moreno , RHP , KCR
82 ) Russell Branyan , 3B , CLE
83 ) Alex Fernandez , OF , SEA
84 ) Dan Reichert , RHP , KCR
85 ) Kyle Snyder , RHP , KCR
86 ) Randy Wolf , LHP , PHI
87 ) Chad Hermansen , OF , PIT
88 ) Ruben Quevedo , RHP , CHN
89 ) Maicer Izturis , SS/2B , CLE
90 ) Jesus Colome , RHP , OAK
91 ) Pat Strange , RHP , NYM
92 ) Erubiel Durazo , 1B , ARZ
93 ) Jon Garland , RHP , CHA
94 ) Ben Christensen , RHP , CHN
95 ) Javier Vazquez , RHP , MTL
96 ) Luis Matos , CF , BAL
97 ) Adam Kennedy , 2B , STL
98 ) Ramon Santiago , SS , DET
99 ) Rowand Aaron , OF , CHA
100 ) Hinske Eric , 3B , CHN