Juan Francisco should be belting homers in Cincinatti in 2010With the fifth installment in the series, we are just about finished counting down the Top 300. Why do we do the top 300? Our research has shown that few significant Major League players, were never considered among the Top 300 prospects in baseball (you’ll get more on this when we publish our Prospect Value study in a couple of week), and we would rather not miss anyone. So over the course of the next week or so, you can find out who we consider this year’s Top 300 prospects, as we count them down all the way to #1.
Of course if you want the Top 500, or just can’t wait until we count them all the way down, you can always order the Prospect eGuide, and get your copy of the complete list (plus much more) delivered to your in-box the same day. You’ll find complete details here: http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/2010/02/2010-diamond-futures-prospect-eguide-is.html.
2010 Top 300 Prospects
100) Hosmer, Eric , KCR - 1B
99) Arrieta, Jake , BAL - R
98) Ynoa, Michael , OAK - R
97) Melville, Timothy , KCR - R
96) Arguelles, Noel , KCR - L
95) Anderson, Lars , BOS - 1B
94) Britton, Zachary , BAL - L
93) Reckling, Trevor , LAA - L
92) Jackson, Austin , DET - CF
91) White, Alex , CLE - R
90) Viciedo, Dayan , CHA - 3B
89) Lyles, Jordan , HOU - R
88) Darnell, James , SDP - 3B
87) Sanchez, Tony , PIT - C
86) Chacin, Jhoulys , COL - R
85) Banuelos, Manuel , NYY - L
84) Ramos, Wilson , MIN - C
83) Mitchell, Jared , CHA - CF
82) Beckham, Tim , TBR - SS
81) Jackson, Brett , CHN - CF
80) Colome, Alexander , TBR - R
79) Hudson, Daniel , CHA - R
78) Francisco, Juan , CIN - 3B
77) Wheeler, Zack , SFG - R
76) Sano, Miguel , MIN - 3B
75) Conger, Hank , LAA - C
74) Flores, Wilmer , NYM - SS
73) Miller, Shelby , STL - R
72) Leake, Mike , CIN - R
71) Duffy, Danny , KCR - L
70) Gordon, Dee , LAD - SS
69) Castro, Simon , SDP - R
68) Revere, Ben , MIN - CF
67) Vizcaino, Arodys , ATL - R
66) Kalish, Ryan , BOS - LF
65) Teheran, Julio , ATL - R
64) Myers, Wil , KCR - C
63) Dominguez, Matt , FLA - 3B
62) Davis, Wade , TBR - R
61) Garcia, Jaime , STL - L
60) Moustakas, Mike , KCR - 3B
59) Bell, Josh , BAL - 3B
58) Alderson, Tim , PIT - R
57) Decker, Jaff , SDP - LF
56) Tabata, Jose , PIT - CF
55) Tate, Donavan , SDP - CF
54) Storen, Drew , WSN - RP
53) Castro, Jason , HOU - C
52) Borchering, Bobby , ARZ - 3B
51) Lawrie, Brett , MIL - 2B
Posts
What's your logic behind ranking Miguel Sano 76th and Ben Revere 68th when you ranked Sano #3 and Revere #4 on the Twins list?
ReplyDeleteGreat Question...it is more of a timing/reconciliation adjustment than anything, as the player's scores were(are) nearly identical. Once we score all of the players we do the team rankings. If two players come out equal or nearly equal, we evaluate the players to see what might not be picked up by the metrics. In Sano's case there is likely more subjectivity than most, since there is no real performance data. Is he going to be more like Miguel Cabrera or what we know so far of Michael Almanzar (two of his top comps)? When we did the Twins' rankings, we made a call for Sano.
ReplyDeleteWhen we produced the Top 500 list, we run a 'coherency' test by seeing where the player's rank within their expected positions. We felt that Revere belonged ahead of Brett Jackson and Jared Mitchell (two players that also had similar scores), and since these player's are truly that close together, it resulted in the anomoly that you find.
The real answer is that there is little objective difference between the scores of a players within about ten slots of each other once you get outside of the top fifty.
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I have been watching Juan Francisco in the Dominican Winter League for 2 years and has dominated. He won the MVP last year and has already won 2 players of the week awards this year.
ReplyDeleteHe has more natural power than any prospect I have seen in person in the last 3 years. He hit a 400 foot homer last week, and I saw him hit one last year that was unreal. Everyone in the stands was saying "he hit that one to the moon."
I am not an expert on prospects, but I know he has been the top guy in the Dominican Winter League for 2 seasons.
And Miguel Sano #75, did he not just sign in August or something? Again, I am not an expert on prospects. I like to see them at least make it to AA before I give them any credit. But you guys are the experts.
ReplyDelete