How Did We Do? Trying to Make a Quantitative Assessment of a Subjective Topic (part III)

Would the addition of players like Carlos Triunfel have changed things much?

One of the complaints that we have heard was that in our assessment I included ten extra players that Baseball America and Diamond Futures had highly rated and that somehow advantaged those sources. The reality is that I had only intended to compare BA and Diamond Futures when I began. Once I had the 120 players, I didn’t want to go too terribly deeper because most of the sources only rated 100-110 players. But just to try to keep things as level as possible, here are the ten highest rated players by each source that aren’t in the other five sources consensus Top 100. For BA and Diamond Futures, this is how the players got onto the original list.

Baseball America

1) Nick Hagadone – 44
2) Jason Knapp – 66
3) Alex Colome – 68
4) Brett Jackson – 74
5) Josh Reddick – 75
6) Chad James – 78
7) Travis d’Arnuad -81
8) Adam Moore – 83
9) Austin Romine – 86
10) Mat Gamel -89


Diamond Futures

1) Alex Liddi – 48
2) Bobby Borchering – 52
3) Tim Alderson – 58
4) Jaime Garcia – 61
5) Matt Dominguez – 63
6) Wil Meyers – 64
7) Ryan Kalish – 66
8) Juan Francisco – 78
9) Manny Banuelos – 85
10) Dayan Viciedo -90


Keith Law

1) Carlos Triunfel -44
2) Jay Jackson -50
3) Anthony Rizzo -53
4) Zach Stewart – 55
5) Daryl Jones – 59
6) Matt Dominguez – 62
7) Matt Sweeney – 68
8) Michael Brantley – 71
9) Randall Delgado – 85
10) Ryan Kalish -86


Baseball Prospectus

1) Alex Colome – 42
2) Scott Sizemore – 57
3) Josh Reddick – 58
4) Hak-Ju Lee – 63
5) James Darnell – 64
6) Michael Ynoa – 66
7) Ryan Kalish – 76
8) Philippe Aumont – 78
9) Wil Myers – 83
10) Jordan Walden – 89


Hardball Times

1) Scott Sizemore - 30
2) Carlos Triunfel – 42
3) Jason Knapp – 46
4) Danny Duffy – 50
5) Eric Young, Jr – 56
6) Jemile Weeks – 59
7) Mike Minor – 67
8) Brandon Erbe – 69
9) Danny Espinosa – 70
10) Matt Hobgod – 72


FanGraphs

1) Andrew Cashner – 24
2) Austine Romine – 49
3) Brad Lincoln – 54
4) Zach McAllister -61
5) Zach Stewart – 62
6) Brandon Erbe -70
7) Jordan Walden – 78
8) Junichi Tazawa – 72
9) Brandon Allen -74
10) Thomas Neal – 75


I have attempted to color code the players that weren’t part of the original list. What should become relatively evident, is that outside of Baseball Prospectus—which would have had a neutral effect, making the list deeper by including the ‘outliers’ from the other sources would have negatively impacted them. If I had included them, these would have been the twenty additional players that weren’t part of the original list:


CONSENSUS ) PLAYER , POS , TEAM - BA … KL … HT … BP … FG … DF
106 ) Triunfel, Carlos , 3B , SEA - NR … 44 … 42 … NR … NR … 144
109 ) Brantley, Michael , OF , CLE - NR … 71 … 119 … NR … NR … 109
110 ) Martin, Ethan , RHP , LAD - NR … NR … 93 … 98 … 80 … 119
111 ) Heisey, Chris , OF , CIN - NR … 88 … 183 … NR … 95 … 157
112 ) Desmond, Ian , SS , WAS - NR … 103 … 163 … NR … 84 … 142
117 ) Walden, Jordan , RHP , LAA - NR … NR … 157 … 89 … 71 … 107
118 ) Stewart, Zach , RHP , TOR - NR … 55 … 194 … NR … 62 … 172
119 ) Ynoa, Michael , RHP , OAK - NR … NR … 106 … 66 … NR … 98
120 ) Melville, Tim , RHP , KC - NR … NR … 87 … 93 … NR … 97
123 ) Erbe, Brandon , RHP , BAL - NR … NR … 69 … NR … 70 … 153
124 ) Minor, Mike , LHP , ATL - NR … NR … 67 … NR … NR … 131
125 ) Lincoln, Brad , RHP , PIT - NR … 105 … 137 … NR … 54 … 224
134 ) Espinosa, Danny , SS , WAS - NR … NR … 70 … 101 … NR … 207
135 ) McAllister, Zach , RHP , NYY - NR … NR … NR … NR … 61 … 112
138 ) Hobgood, Matt , LHP , BAL - NR … NR … 72 … NR … NR … 169
140 ) Jones, Daryl , OF , STL - NR … 59 … NR … NR … NR … 122
143 ) Rizzo, Anthony , 1B , BOS - NR … 53 … NR … NR … NR … 136
147 ) Young Jr., Eric , 2B , COL - NR … NR … 56 … NR … NR … 211
148 ) Weeks, Jemile , 2B , OAK - NR … NR … 59 … NR … NR … 218
150 ) Sweeney, Matt , 3B , TB - NR … 68 … NR … NR … NR … 155


Applying the same methodology that was originally used would have resulted in the following adjustments:

Baseball America +5
Baseball Prospectus +4
Diamond Futures +4
Keith Law +2
FanGraphs +1
HardballTimes -4

So even with a list of 140 players, it wouldn’t have changed the rankings all that much:

Diamond Futures – 58
Keith Law – 47
FanGraphs – 44
Baseball Prospectus – 31
Hardball Times – 30
Baseball America -30