Mike Trout is likely to enter the 2011 season as the #1 prospect in baseball
Yesterday we laid out how we selected and grouped the players for our analysis. Today we will actually put some numbers behind it. But before we begin, here is a, somewhat, subjective look at each sources’ Best/Worsts (Listed with where they ranked the player, followed by the consensus rank). The picks highlighted here focus on how the source did in relationship to the consensus measurement of the group. In other words, identifying that Stephen Strasburg was going to be good doesn’t provide as much value as identifying that Eric Hosmer was still an elite prospect, even though a lot of people were down on his 2009 performance.
Baseball America
10 Best Picks
1) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
2) Hector Rondon, NR (64)
3) Josh Vitters, 70 (42)
4) Grant Green, 52 (70)
5) Zach Britton, 63 (75)
6) Ike Davis, 62 (69)
7) Starlin Castro, 16 (22)
8) Mike Stanton, 3 (4)
9) Stephen Strasburg, 2 (2)
10) Jason Heyward, 1 (1)
10 Worst Picks
1) Alcides Escobar, 12 (23)
2) Michael Saunders, 30 (63)
3) Todd Frazier, 43 (79)
4) Nick Hagadone, 44 (88)
5) Eric Hosmer, 105 (78)
6) Mike Moustakas, 80 (46)
7) Adam Moore, 83 (122)
8) Manny Banuelos, NR (116)
9) Jose Tabata, NR (52)
T- 10) Wil Meyers, 105 (107)
T- 10) Josh Bell, 37 (48)
It was difficult coming up with ten picks where BA was ahead of the pack on and difficult limiting the worst list to only ten. All-in-all it wasn’t a very good year for the ‘industry leader’.
Baseball Prospectus
10 Best Picks
1) Julio Teheran, 33 (44)
2) Austin Jackson, 49 (60)
3) Mike Leake, 59 (72)
4) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
5) Mike Trout, 53 (67)
6) Arodys Vizcaino, 45 (66)
7) Wil Meyers, 83 (107)
8) Hector Rondon, NR (64)
9) Tyler Flowers, 72 (52)
10) Jio Mier, 97 (73)
10 Worst Picks
1) Eric Hosmer, NR (78)
2) Michael Taylor, 20 (32)
3) Donovan Tate, 29 (55)
4) Scott Sizemore, 57 (83)
5) Mike Moustakas, 79 (46)
6) Chris Withrow, 40 (65)
7) Jordan Lyles, NR (71)
8) Jhoulys Chacin, NR (74)
9) Jaime Garcia, NR (101)
10) Starlin Castro, 37 (22)
I have not performed any objective analysis of this, so I am hesitant to throw this out for consideration, but, BA had far fewer ‘extreme’ positions than did most of the other sources. When I totaled up who had the player rated highest and who had the player rated lowest, BA held only 12% of the extreme positions. The expected value—all things being equal—would be 17%. Hardball Times, on the other hand, held the extreme position 21% of the time (followed by Keith Law/Baseball Prospectus at 19%, Fan Graphs at 17% and Diamond Futures at 13%. A couple of possible explanations are that BA reaches an ‘expert’ consensus in coming up with their rankings, so they are likely to be less extreme…or….because BA is one of the more widely read sources, their ‘perspectives’ filter into the mainstream to such a degree that the other sources factor in, likely unknowingly, some sort of ‘BA bias’ into their rankings. Whatever the case, something is at play in this regard.
The significance is that it is a lot easier to find ‘extreme hits and misses’ for the other sources. Baseball Prospectus was no exception as they did well by taking extreme positions on Julio Teheran, Austin Jackson and Mike Leake—who all exceeded expectations; and got clobbered with their positions on players like Eric Hosmer, Michael Taylor, Donovan Tate and Scott Sizemore.
Keith Law
10 Best Picks
1) Eric Hosmer, 34 (78)
2) Mike Trout, 49 (67)
3) Acides Escobar, 54 (23)
4) Donovan Tate, NR (55)
5) James Darnell, NR (87)
6) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
7) Arodys Vizcaino, 43 (66)
8) Scott Sizemore, 107 (83)
9) Zach Britton, 25 (75)
10) Jhoulys Chacin, 48 (74)
10 Worst Picks
1) Wil Meyers, NR (107)
2) Mike Montgomery, 75 (33)
3) Pedro Alvarez, 35 (10)
4) Jay Jackson, 50 (100)
5) Tim Beckham, 29 (45)
6) Josh Vitters, 30 (42)
7) Matt Moore, 81 (36)
8) Jaime Garcia, NR (101)
9) Grant Green, 93 (70)
10) Wilson Ramos, 42 (58)
Those that regularly read Mr. Law undoubtedly understand his dogged adherence to his opinions. That fact is evident here, as his dogmatic belief in Eric Hosmer was rewarded, as was his dislike for favorites like Donovan Tate and Alcides Escobar. However Keith Law has never believed in Pedro Alvarez—seemingly a mistake, and his positional concerns regarding Wil Meyer created a big miss in 2010. On balance, though, he likely comes out more right than wrong in his extreme views.
FanGraphs
10 Best Picks
1) Eric Hosmer, 45 (78)
2) Tim Alderson, NR (97)
3) Michael Taylor, 63 (32)
4) Donovan Tate, NR (55)
5) Todd Frazier, NR (79)
6) Jordan Lyles, 58 (71)
7) Scott Sizemore, NR (83)
8) James Darnell, NR (87)
9) Mike Moustakas, 41 (46)
10) Mike Montgomery, 29 (33)
10 Worst Picks
1) Christian Friedrich, 11 (24)
2) Tim Beckham, 27 (45)
3) Grant Green, NR (70)
4) Wil Meyers, NR (107)
5) Mike Leake, 92 (72)
6) Jaime Garcia, NR (101)
7) Miguel Sano, NR (86)
8) Manny Banuelos, NR (116)
9) Tyler Flowers, 39 (52)
10) Matt Moore, 52 (36)
Admittedly, I don’t know much about FanGraphs’ methodology. One of the most quantitative sites, I am not certain whether or not that flows into their list. What I do know as that they held positive contrarian positions on players like Hosmer, Alderson, Michael Tayor and Donovan Tate; but missed identifying players like Grant Green, Wil Meyers and Jaime Garcia and their placing Friedrich at #11 may have been one of the worst misses on any list.
Hardball Times
10 Best Picks
1) Mike Moustakas, 23 (46)
2) Eric Hosmer, 47 (78)
3) Jhoulys Chacin, 20 (74)
4) Manny Banuelos, 86 (116)
5) Michael Taylor, 63 (32)
6) Casey Crosby, 76 (39)
7) Todd Frazier, 158 (79)
8) Nick Hagadone, NR (88)
9) Casey Kelly, 35 (19)
10) Shelby Miller, 28 (40)
10 Worst Picks
1) Donovan Tate, 9 (55)
2) Michael Saunders, 16 (63)
3) Hector Rondon, 17 (64)
4) Christian Friedrich, 14 (24)
5) Scott Sizemore, 30 (83)
6) Mike Trout, 92 (67)
7) Arodys Vizcaino, 116 (66)
8) Austin Jackson, 138 (60)
9) Mike Stanton, 15 (4)
10) Zach Britton, 120 (75)
It comes as little surprise to me how well they did at the top of their ‘Best’ list. They march to a ‘different beat’ over there, and, while it is reflected with their ‘Best’ picks, it is also reflected in their ‘Worst’ ones, as no list is as bad at the top as Tate, Saunders, Rondon and Friedrich—all with Top 20 rankings.
Diamond Futures
10 Best Picks
1) Mike Trout, 43 (67)
2) Wil Meyers, 64 (107)
3) Jaime Garcia, 61 (101)
4) Manny Banuelos, 85 (116)
5) Scott Sizemore, 193 (83)
6) Tyler Flowers, 186 (52)
7) Michael Saunders, 121 (63)
8) Tim Beckham, 82 (45)
9) Jose Tabata, 56 (92)
10) Dayan Viciedo, 90 (131)
10 Worst Picks
1) Tim Alderson, 58 (97)
2) Ike Davis, 158 (69)
3) Chris Withrow, 42 (68)
4) Shelby Miller, 73 (40)
5) Hector Rondon, 40 (64)
6) Jio Mier, 50 (73)
7) Noel Arguelles, 96 (144)
8) Eric Hosmer, 100 (78)
9) Julio Teheran, 65 (44)
10) Aaron Hicks, 15 (25)
The only real comment, for now, that I will make regarding our picks is that each of the 10 ‘Best’ picks represent the extreme positioning (either highest or lowest) for each of these players.
In an attempt to quantify this, what I have done is examine the three groupings that I posted yesterday. For the middle group of fifty players that ‘met expectations’, I awarded 1 point for every player that was ranked within ten positions (+ or -) of the consensus ranking. For those players that improved their prospect status, I awarded 1 point if they were ranked more than five places higher than the consensus and deducted a point if they were ranked 15 or more places below the consensus (i.e. you get a point for being ahead of the curve, but you lose a point if you didn’t like the player and they proved even better than expectations). Finally, for those players that saw their prospect status tumble, I awarded a point if they were ranked more than five places lower than the consensus, and I deducted a point if they were ranked 15 or more places higher than the consensus. Below is the summary of results:
Source -- Total …... Improved … Met … Declined
Diamond Futures -- 54 …... 8 (15/7) … 32 … 14 (20/6)
Keith Law (ESPN) -- 45 …... 6 (12/6) … 19 … 20 (23/3)
FanGraphs.com -- 43 …... 2 (9/7) …... 26 …... 15 (20/5)
HardBall Times -- 34 …... -4 (9/13) ...… 21 ...… 17 (24/7)
Baseball Prospectus --27 …... 0 (9/9) ...… 22 ...… 5 (13/8)
Baseball America -- 25 …... -4 (4/8) …... 27 ...… 2 (11/9)
The numbers in parenthesis are the breakdown between plus points and minus points in those categories. As should have been apparent by examining the ‘Best Pick’ lists, Diamond Futures finished on top, in large part, because of their ability to identify players that are underrated by the other sources. Players like Mike Trout, Wil Meyers, Jaime Garcia and Manny Banuelos didn’t really surprise us with their performances this year. If you are a regular reader of this space, you will find the contrast even more stark when you compare players at the lower levels. Our knack is identifying players earlier than most, and this has been the case around here since we were ahead of the curve on Albert Pujols in 2001. Our track record is long and solid in this area. Keith Law, on the other hand, performs best in identifying ‘overrated’ prospects, going 23-3 in the grouping of players whose value declined this year. Both Diamond Futures and Keith Law identified 35 players that were ‘wrongly’ categorized entering the year. In a head-to-head comparison between Keith Law and Diamond Futures, of the prospect risers, Law placed the better ranking on 14 of the players while Diamond Futures placed the better ranking on 17 players. Of the players whose stock has fallen it was 17-17. So Diamond Futures was slightly better overall. On the negative side, it was a down year for some of the more well-known names in the business. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus didn’t fair very well. It is only one season, and as I pointed out earlier, the true value of these prospects won’t be really known for another 5-10 years, so I wouldn’t draw any conclusions from this simplistic analysis. But I will point out that, both, BA and BP have far more reaches into the traditional scouting communities than do the other sources. I have a more empirical study that I am currently wrapping up that explores that angle to a greater depth.
I didn’t compile this to ‘blow our own horn’. I would have preferred that some ‘independent’ group tracked/analyzed these things. But we strongly believe in accountability. Anyone can have an opinion, but all opinions aren’t of equal value. At Diamond Futures we have been doing this for more than a dozen years. We have looked at how our results stack up with the ‘rest’ and understand where we rank.
Nor I am trying to imply that we are smarter, better informed, or even luckier than the ‘rest’. Simply stated...we use a system, one that has been revised continually for more than a decade. Our rankings are merely a product of that system and the system works. This is just a small attempt to demonstrate that, but those of you who have followed us for awhile now already understand that. All of that being said, if we weren't better than the 'rest', didn't offer something different, there would be no need for us. If you are new to this site, hopefully you will remember that when you are looking for prospect information this winter.
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